September 21, 2025 • 37 mins
Every Sunday morning, just hours before kickoff, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter lock in their FINAL bets. They give their picks for the big NFL Week 3 matchups: Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears, Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants, and more.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast network business V betting
show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise
guy pay attention. I am Chad Nomand and I am
joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my
campadre professional better Signmon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hello, Simon God, how you doing?
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Amped? Amped for Sunday? This is the strip down in
the room ease dropping version of Sharper Square. You and
I are gonna nail down our final five picks. Now
that we've had injuries, which there have been some roster announcements,
we've seen some lines move Are you ready to roll
with my brother?
Speaker 2 (00:44):
And wait?
Speaker 1 (00:46):
I feel like I'm at peak energy and you're like
coming off a bender of having been up for ninety
seven hours betting on games.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, and honestly, I'm I'm looking forward to taking like
a little hour nap here before kickoff. So I'm I'm
fired up these Uh. I'm sure people have seen all
the trends and all the stuff this week. It's it's
a known week for dog betters, like it's a good
week through betting dogs and uh yeah, it's uh it's
a busy week, and luckily, you know, we've talked about
(01:18):
all the games this week.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
There's we up to five quarterbacks out or four quarterbacks
are out. We're not really hyper focused on those games,
thank god.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
So uh, for me, it's like, you know, there wasn't
a lot of people complained about already having quarterbacks injuries
and everything like that, But to me, it's you can
avoid those games. There's so many good, good games this
week and so many good lines this week. So yeah,
not not too hyper focused on that Vikings Bengals game.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
But yeah, there's plenty other ones we're gonna talk about.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Here, all right, So let's let's get into it. These
are the games we adzered in on the other day,
and a reminder a lot of times we get we're
in a contest. Those contest lines locked on Wednesday, The
lines move over the course of the past few days
oftentimes are the same. But if we can take advantage
(02:07):
of these contest lines on games that we already liked,
we do. The first one up Green Bay of Cleveland.
That line is pretty much painted seven and a half
across the board. We like Cleveland all week at eight
and a half. It is at eight and a half
in the contest. I still think i'd like Cleveland at
seven and a half for purposes of anyone listening or
(02:29):
watching the show right now. But you're not getting the
best of the number. So at eight and a half,
to me, it feels like we've played it. It's eight
and a half in the contest, feels like we want
to lock in on that one.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Yeah, another game we were never going to avoid. And
this is what I love about me and Chad doing
the show together, that there's some games that one of
us could talk to the other person out of this game.
As soon as I saw the number, I said, there's
no there's no way we don't take this number, let
alone having the contest.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
And there's still one very public book.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Out there that has eight and a half. Yes, but
I don't mind grabbing the seven and a half at
hard rocket. If that's your heart, if that's the only
choice you have, you're still getting a really good number
with the hook. And let's be honest, the difference between
seven and a half eight and a half, it's just mental,
like the odds of it actually landing on eight. It's
obviously there's percent show chance, So that's why you want
the best of the number. But I just see this
(03:26):
one either being a field goal win by green Bay
honesty or somehow Cleveland pulls up the opposite.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
You just again, we're in week three here.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
Week three, you see a lot of really weird stuff
where there's teams that get heavily overvalued and there's teams
that get heavily undervalued, and you see the line reflect that.
And you've seen it here, right, it's been I mean,
there's a couple of books that are getting Cleveland money,
but the most most bookmakers I've talked through this week,
it's just all green Bay money. And they're very happy
when I come into bet on Cleveland. So they they
(03:56):
they've needed to help from their professionals balance in the
books just because of how how heavy they are with
the moneyline parlais, the teasers. Everything is just on green Bay,
Green Bay. You know, I don't know how many people
took them with their survivor pool, right, it's green Bay
on the road. But they're just people are doing that,
which is a crazy thing to think about, right. It's
it's just a variable love team right now. Because people
(04:16):
are so hyper focused on the defensive line and how
well Jordan loves to play for good reason. Right, they
look like the best team right now in the NFC,
but we see timetime again. It's really hard to be
at your best three four weeks in a row, especially
in the NFL, especially when you're going up against a
Cleveland defensive line. So yeah, me and Chad know the deal.
We are betting on Joe Flacco. We're gonna need a
(04:37):
back door. We're gonna need a miracle cover at some point,
and uh yeah, it's it's really us putting our faith
into this Cleveland defense and also that their offense is
as bad as the public reception is right now.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
So Jed I I.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Unfortunately I thought on Thursday, maybe something will happen. I
can talk chat out of this one. But this is
I knew it right away last week on Sunday. This
is gonna be guaranteed in our contest, especially at eight
and a half.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Guy, I was never going to be talked out of
this one. Like I wanted you. I wanted you to
talk me out of it. I was desperate. I told
you I watched the condensed version of this game on
the rowing machine. That's how much I wanted to not
bet on Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
I was looking at.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Yeah, the Ravens Cleveland game. I was I was desperate
to not have to bet on the Browns. But I
just like the number. It's number one and number two
rush defenses in yards per carry. So if green Bay
is going to win this game, it's going to because
Jordan Love throws deep in over the top. But that
also plays itself, I think too, a lot more in completions,
(05:43):
a lot more potential plays in the game, So that
could favor Cleveland because it allows for a little more
variants and turnovers and things like that. So we're gonna
be on the Browns. We can try to rationalize it
any any way we want. Looking at the numbers, we're
on a elite, top tier defense at home against an
(06:04):
overvalued team versus an undervalued team. We're just gonna do it.
Love it Houston at Jacksonville. So this got to two
and a half. It's at one and a half right now. Wise,
guys have been hitting this the Jacksonville Jaguarser plus one
and a half. It got to two and a half
for like two hours in the middle of the week,
(06:25):
and then it kept moving down, down down, I think
for this game. We like Houston. We've bet Houston. We
really have to believe that the quality of the Texans
losses against the Bucks and the Rams shows that they
are the better team here and that their history of
consistently winning in their division is going to prove to
(06:50):
be the difference against a Jacks team. I don't think
we're sold on considering the two games they played so far.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
Yeah, and as hard don't want to beg at tale
for the Texans, there's a lot of things that are
shown up on tape that I think a lot of
people are seeing in the football world that is pretty
alarming on this Texans team and not something we think
they're gonna overnight fix.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Right.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Their run defense might be a major problem for them
going forward this season, and obviously they don't really have
a running game. And you know, we joke that Nick
Chubb touchdown. The more you watch it, the more you
do realize that was a.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Gimme, Right.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
They just don't have that running back right now that
can offset CJ. And that's that's a big deal because
last year you did see Joe Mixon was very very
good for them, even if the numbers don't back it up.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
He was an effective weapon, especially in the red zend
for them last year.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
So this one with the Texans really is about us
trusting the numbers and once again teams or just I
should say, the public leaving these teams for dead. Right.
They're owing to oh and two against the spread and
it's only for professional money. The only the thing that
gives me hesitation with them is I don't know if
(08:04):
I don't know about you chat, I don't know if
I've talked to a single professional better that's on the Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
It's all Texans.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
I know the public is on the Jaguars, and which
I totally understand, but it's always little nerve wrecking where
it's just like last week with the Jets, where it's
just all love for this side. And like you said,
the numbers come down our contest, it's plus a half,
but we're not even getting one and a half if
we take the Texans. We're literally we're saying they're gonna
win this game, like they're not. I mean, they're not
(08:31):
tying this game. So do we believe Houston can win
this game?
Speaker 2 (08:36):
I do.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
It's a team that has done really well against the Jaguars.
Doesn't matter who their coaches, who their quarterback is just
consistently they've matched up well against them, and we know
divisionally there's weird things like that, there's weird quirks like
that were different teams.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
You know, just scheme up against well against other teams.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
So it's we wouldn't be shocked Houston going over three.
They have major issues, but I love a deper team
like they are with a type of mentality. Happened Dmiico
Ryans in this spot against a Jacksonville team that could
be fraudulent, Like we gave him a lot of love
because they beat up on a Panthers defense and then
(09:14):
beat up on a Cincinnati defense.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Here we go. This is a true test.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
You have an incredibly desperate Houston's team that got embarrassed
and there's no other way to put it. Like they
let Bucky and White run all over them last week
against the Buccaneers, as Buccaneers did whatever they want in
the run game. So I just tend to love these
teams in these exact spots and all the negativity around CJ,
(09:39):
I expect him to make some big plays for us
in this spot. I know he's hearing the noise and
he's feeling it after being and again just outplayed on
a Monday night primetime game. So we are not getting
the best of the number. Really, why force us to
take a number that's not the best of them. But
there's two games here that we have to pick between.
The Houston's one of them where it's like, I could
you talked out of it, Chader? I wanted to, but
(10:01):
I've been bet into it so heavy. I'm so confident
in the number. I obviously wish we had the one
and a half, but I'll take.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
The half and I'll play it in our contest if
you want to.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Well, let's you had a whole journey there, because in
the beginning I thought you were gonna say that you're
not really comfortable with it, But then we came around
and we've both been into it. I feel like it's
on the edge, and so I'm with you on that,
you know, So we'll see, we'll see. I mean, look,
we're gonna turn this game on. The Texans are gonna
steamroll that. I'm gonna be like, are you freaking kidding me?
(10:32):
Like we even debated this at one and a half,
Like why are why are we getting in our heads
and dealing.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I know that's what I'm trying.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
You know, sometimes picky you in details. Uh La Rams
at Philadelphia Eagles, it's three and a half. It's three
at hard Rock. If you can get the three, take
the Eagles. I live in Connecticut. I have been waiting
for this thing to get back down to three. It's
not gonna get there. I'm gonna have to bite the
bullet and take the three and a half. We are
(11:00):
against the wise guys on this. I hate that we
are not getting the three, I really really do. But
why can't I get over this Eagles team? Why do
I feel like the Rams had incredible games against two
teams one in the Texans one of the Titans that
haven't found their way yet, and the Eagles are like it,
(11:23):
that uber confident we can win at an eighty percent
level and not even open up our full back of
tricks yet. Stage and Saiquon Barkley could have run for
one thousand yards and eight touchdowns in this game.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
And I will say this, respect the hard Rock for
a hole in the three, because it's no other book here,
especially in New Jersey, has been at the three.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
And it looks like they've been taking the Rams money
and they're just moving the juice like I've been waiting
for four days for this thing to go to three somewhere.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
It's and I was gonna say, you said the professional
size of Rams, it's not.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
I told you it's not as profession Do you think it's.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
It's a weird spot where it's not like I said,
it's not that it's the lazy professional bet, but it
is right, they're they're strictly looking at this is the
Rams have been playing better first two games of the year.
Eagles teams offense looks futrid. They don't look consistent, and
you know it's rare you have the defending super Bowl
(12:23):
champ who just beat the team they defeating the Super
Bowl on the road the week before, be just bad
mouthed by people. Right, it doesn't really happen that often
that the team starts too enough to winning Super Bowl
and people are just down on them. So I think
we're in the same line here of this is just
a surprisingly by low spot and a fade of an
(12:45):
overrated RAMS team that we have no doubt in their
talent level. Right Stafford with those weapons and he looks good, right,
I don't know if it's the shots he's take or
wherever it is. He looks in mid season form like
this is the best he's looked since. You know, I
would say that Bills game going back to last year
when he was at home against the Building, he put
up like forty two points. So you know, we haven't
(13:05):
had this Stafford in a long time. He just looks
totally in rhythm, solely confident. But when you break down
this Eagles defense and how they can attack it, I mean,
they haven't really had to have, you know, shown their
weakness year, but the offensive line is an actual weakness
to this Rams team. And you saw in that Houston game,
right there was a reason they were only have to
put up fourteen points against that Rams defense, and it
(13:27):
was just because Stafford was under rest and didn't have time.
And you look at this match for the Eagles team,
they actually surprisingly have been really really good at a
rushing the passer. And you saw that last week with Mahomes.
It didn't show up in the stats because he scrambled
so much. Stafford is not That's not a part of
Stafford's game at all. He is not the scrambling type.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So it's gonna ben issues of the game.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
We're gonna look know pretty quick, right, if they can
get Stafford off his spot right or some out of
this or some out of the middle. That's a Jaalen
Carter stat if he can get up the middle, and
then it's about the Eagles getting back to the run game.
I know the whole questions have been about hurts in
the passing offense.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
To me, I get what they're doing. Right.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
There's the same thing you saw with Josh Allen did
on Thursday night. It's like, I'm just not gonna lose
this game, Like you're gonna make the mistake and I'll
trust in our defense and our offense play small enough
not to make that thurnover and you know, make that
huge mistake and you kind of see that that's the
way the NFL is going now. People are gonna start
playing more conservative, just safe for football and trying to
make the other guys blink first. And we've seen it
(14:28):
with Stafford. Stafford is an absolute gun slinger. If he
gets behind seven, he will start throwing to those tight
windows because that's just.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
The type of player is.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
You can't change who he is, right, he is what
he is so I love this number. It's funny where
if this was four, I would honestly have a different
tune on up. But the fact that it's three and
a half, I do think there's a really good value bet.
And I'm with Chad. If you can get the three
like you kind of hard rock, go get it. But
I no issues taking the.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
Three and a half.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
I bet a ton of three and a halfs this
week and next week. I am sure we're gonna be
fading this team, but yeah, I can't believe it. Back
to back weeks, we're gonna be taking the Eagles in
the contest.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
All right, We'll stay tuned for tonight show around seven
thirty pm Eastern after the late afternoon game, so we
could talk about how we're fading the Eagles in week four.
But yeah, like your confidence in the Eagles, booy is
my confidence. And everyone's criticism of the Eagles offense right
now is actually why I kind of like the Eagles offense.
Jalen Hurts does not care what the public is saying.
Jalen Hurts only knows what's happening inside his building and
(15:27):
how he can manage this offense and doing exactly what
he needs to do to win, and if the Eagles
need Jalen Hurst to throw down field more to win
a game, then that's what he's going to figure out
how to do. And so to me, I am just
not that worried about the ineffectiveness of this Eagles offense
at certain spots in the games because Jalen Hurts knows
exactly who he is and what this team needs. Feels
(15:50):
like Eagles three and a half and Brown's eight and
a half right now are making strong entries for positions
in the contest. We're on the fence about Houston. Today's
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(16:31):
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Speaker 2 (16:33):
In a row.
Speaker 1 (16:34):
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(18:24):
I want to bring up Dallas and Chicago. Chicago is
a one and a half point underdog right now. That
was our brass Balls bet of the week. I have
bet the Bears at plus one and a half. I'm
pretty sure you have two. For some reason in our contest,
the Bears are one and a half point favorites. That
becomes a pass to me, a pass because I don't
(18:45):
like the way the market has moved, we'd be playing
into a number that goes against everything that we sort
of practice when it comes to taking advantage of when
these lines lock. So this game becomes a pass for me.
In the contest, the Bears are one and a half
point favorites.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Yeah, my only preach on it is I've bet into
this Bears line.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
I love this Bears spot. And we've talked all week
about it.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
If you bet the Dolphins on Thursday, if you're betting
the Texans tod if you've been in Denver today, you
have to bet this Bears line.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
It's They're all pretty much the same.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
There's no difference in the belief. There's no.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Again, it's all every team is different, the matches are
all different like that. But at the end of the day,
it's like this Bears team, this I can't believe it.
Undervalued they are. And the fact that everyone I've talked,
even professionals like the Cowboys, and they all give me
the same reasons. And you know, and if I'm trying
to make an argument for this Bears team, them being
(19:48):
their whole secondary being.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Out is a huge deal.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
I agree with everyone telling us that and you know,
if you have to dream up a match for Dak
CD and Pickings, this is is it? The Bears are
They practice squad guys right now lining up at corner
going up against pro bowlers.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
So that's the that's the nerve wrecking spot here. But
I think mother nature might give us one here.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
I think it might rain, it might be a little windy,
it might be bad weather if we can get.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Lucky here in Chicago.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
So I'm not going to force it in because it
is a bad number, like Chad said, but I do
think it comes down to Houston or the Bears here
where it's like, I know it's a bad number.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
I know it's minus one and a.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Half in our contest, but I just I can't get
over how much I love the Bears in the spot
against the Cowboys team that Dak is gonna have stinker games,
and unfortunately he does well like I said, he like
you've seen I talked about his record against teams below
five hundred, he does really well against them. So, once again,
not going to force it because I said it to
Chad that this Bears team they might truly be a
(20:55):
bottom four team this league.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
They might literally be that bad.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
So I love this because this is truly a make
or break, opinion changing type of game where if they
can just come out, Caleb can put together a couple
of really good draps. I mean the over under I
think was fifty to fifteen and a half. Once again,
I like the under there where it's like I feel
like everyone.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
Is gonna be taking Cowboys in the over.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
I'm betting on hopefully some bad weather, loppy game giving
me the under, give me the Bears, and uh it's.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
It's a really gross game, gross matchup.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
So if we don't have to put it, I'd be
sad because me and Chad we both have a Sunday ticket.
If I don't need to make this in my four box,
I would honestly thank you Chad. But I'm glad you're
not as confident in it, because it's like it always
scares me when Bears fans are confident in the Bears.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
It's the ships of the ships are barred. They're like
there are no Bears.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
Fans I feel like left that are truly confident this
Bears team. But I have talked to a couple of guys,
you know, respected money, who are very, very confident in
this Bear side, but that I think what Chad's pointing out,
they're really confident at the plus one and a half. Yeah,
they just think to be a really close game where
I don't know, I still think it should be minus
three Bears, So I still think there's value in this line.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
But once again, I much rather have.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
Four and a half points of value to my model
on the one and a half on the Bears, enforcing
in them at one and a half. So yeah, sucks,
it's a bad number in our contest. But yeah, I
it's gross, but I too, I love I love the
Bears side, and I think their offense is gonna surprised me.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
But Alb's not as bad as he's looked through the
first two weeks.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
He's he's just been put in tough games, tough spots,
and you know, as we said, I think you'll keep
getting better every week as he gets more comfortable this offense.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
Number One, I'm your bestie Bears fan, and I haven't
been confident in the Bears since Justin Fields circa twenty
twenty three. Number One, nobody who's a Bears fan is
confident in the Bears. Ever. We hate the organization, hit
(22:55):
the ownership.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
You haven't managed Mitch MVP ticket.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
Don't lie, dude, But then we're talking about what twenty seventeen,
twenty eighteen like it was real. It is everybody who
is a Bears fan is so angry, bitter, except for
the one dude who goes to every game still wearing
that literal Bear outfit, who my friends and I text
about it like we can't believe this guy is still
(23:21):
doing that for these games. Slight chance of precipitate if
it gets bad. I hope you're right, slight chance of precipitation.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Need the rain.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
We need the rain. We need the rain like a
farmer needed rain during the dust bawl. We need the rain.
I don't know if the Bears make it here with
four and a half points of value being gone in
the contest, All right.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
So.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
Denver plus two and a half just hanging there like
a meatball? Is that something we put in? Like we're
sort of struggling here to find three four and five.
We feel good about the Browns, we feel good about
the Eagles. Who am I missing?
Speaker 2 (24:04):
Yeah? I mean, obviously, you know what I mean.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
I've I've loved Denver all week, really fascinating red number
and line because some books have gotten the Chargers up
to like minus one sixty five on the money line,
but they've held it at two and a half. Yeah,
I mean back in the day used to be like
(24:28):
what a minus one forty five a minus two and
a half, and now some books are holding it whe
they're pricing their money line up to one sixty five.
So I feel like the books and me are in
the same line of Chargers win a close one if
they do win, but they're just there's no way they
cover this number, like that's just and if lated line.
(24:50):
But I love this type of matchup because the Chargers
do cover this. Again, I don't know come January how
I feel about the Chargers, but this would literally my
not just my model, but bookmakers as well changed our
perspective on the Chargers team totally, where it's like, Okay,
we thought they were a top potentially a top ten
team after last week. You win this game, you win
(25:13):
three straight divisional games, and you blow out the Denver Broncos,
You're like, Okay, this is a juggernaut might win this
division type of team now because it's this is just
a bad spot Historically, I gave out the stats like
teams in this exact spot, So playing three straight divisional games,
they're one and six in the last seven this exact spot.
(25:35):
Teams just playing like they just played two straight primetime
night games coming to this spot. One in five in
the last six in the spot. So it's like not
a good spot for a Chargers team. And then we
talked about the public overrating them, overvaluing them, and just
inflating this where you know, tons of love once again
to a team that put up three points in that
(25:56):
second half against the Raiders, like you saw when the
justin We're made to Herbert he can't keep surviving with
no run game like he has through the first two weeks.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
It's just that's not the offense horrible wants to be
running here.
Speaker 3 (26:09):
So can they get it right with the run game
and the Chargers really become that totally complete team that
the general publican sports media, I've already painting them out
to be. I bet you they can't, Like, I really
really love this Denver spot. And bo Nicks, who hasn't
played well through the first two weeks, you expect Sean
Payton him to be able to get right here against
(26:29):
the Chargers defense. Like I said, they do have injuries
to that middle of the field, the linebackers in the secondary.
And you know, Darwin James obviously one of the best
safeties in football. He will be a total game changer
for us in the fact of how he plays this
and how he affects on knicks. But another game strictly
about the number, and we talked that unique spot, right,
(26:50):
It's just it fits Houston two oh and two teams
against the spread on the road against divisional foes. It's
on an historical run, it's on a thirteen to no
run in this exact spot. So the trends like it,
we like it, love the number, and uh yeah, this
is this is an incredibly, incredibly important game in the
(27:13):
sense that it really does feel like it's going to
dictate this division, where I do think the Chiefs will
be there at the end. But Denver, if Denver truly
wants to be the guy in this division, the top dog,
they have to win this. Sponix has to step up.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
So yeah, gross one, hold your nose, take.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
It plus plus two and a half. It's a couple
of threes out there right shop around. You can three
hard Rocks come to three a couple of times here
in Jersey, so definitely shut around for our contest. Though
I love the two and a half. I got no
problem put it in.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Wow, that's a all right, let's think about this for
a second. Brown's Eagles, Broncos. Let me just throw out
three other games where the lines are to our advantage.
(28:02):
We haven't bet them big, but and they're ugly. Jets
on the road at the Bucks, Panthers at home against
the Falcons, Saints on the road against the Seahawks. We
(28:22):
still need two more games.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
I mean, right now I have Eagles Cleveland Denver, with
Houston as our fourth because we switched out.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
Yeah, all right, so maybe we need one more game.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Yeah, we can talk to you more. I mean, I
like Panthers. Am I willing to die in the hill
enforce US one? And I'm not like this?
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Can we ask? Can we ask our audience to bet
the Panthers right now? That feels it feels unfair.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
I know I'm betting it if they want to ride
with me. I do think it's a good number.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
I mean, I'm looking at the live lines here. There's
still five and a half's out there. A couple of
books have moved to four and a half, which I
am shocked by, Like, I can't believe a professional group
was putting heavy money on this Panthers team.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
There's just so many other good games.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
But I told you earlier in the week, there's just
a lot of trends that people love in this spot,
and there's a lot of fading trends on this Atlanta
team on their road outdoors. Right, it's a unique spot,
I guess if you're looking at this Panthers team. But yeah,
it's just tough where it's like there's other games. I
like when I bet more so I get your I
(29:31):
get why you brought them up to Panthers.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
I agree. We talked during the week.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
The professionals we heard were on the Bucks, especially at
the six and a half. Our contest is seven and
a half Jets, and that we cannot overstate the offensive
line injuries.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
That's what I'm thinking this team, and I.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
Hate that though, because it is lazy, and I get
why people are complaining about it, where it's like we know,
we everyone knows the injury to this team, and obviously
if the Meca Buca was out would have been a
big deal for us. The kid has I think three
touchdowns through two games, a rookie from uh.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Ohio State that the books drafted.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
He's, yeah, just looks like a gay game Day one
game or stud and that that would have handed me
feel a little more confident because the Jets, outside of
Sauce there their number two in our three corners, are
horrible and this bet really is about short week Baker
(30:30):
just getting into three car accidents in that game, right,
he was just beat up and now he's going to
get some pretty good defensive line with no alignment. Like
to me, this game is just them trying to survive.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
And the same thing.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
I mean, you talk about this Jets team, they fit
the zero to two miles, right, They're the zero and
two team desperate, playing for the season with a backup quarterback.
Speaker 2 (30:51):
So I know, I hate it.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
People probably saw coming the mile the way we're gonna
get stick on the Jets team. I tried to talk
us out of it, being like there's pros on it,
we could avoid it, but he was after our show.
I always put our pickse on Thursday and shoes. I
saw seven and a half on the Jets. It was like,
that's that's pretty interesting. So we'll put it as our
fifth for right now and we'll keep going through the
games here right. Definitely, that one definitely jumped out to
(31:14):
me of give me and chat to avoid it or
is it number two?
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Good?
Speaker 3 (31:19):
And you know this is just how how can the
Bucks overcome all those injuries to their offensive line?
Speaker 2 (31:25):
It's it just feels like it's too much at this point.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
It does? It does? I mentioned briefly Saint Seahawks. We
have the Seahawks and Survivor. I'm not interested in trying
to thread the needle on saying to at seven and
a half or seven and Seahawks and Survivor. I want
to bring up two more games. Chiefs minus five and
(31:49):
a half, that's the contest line at six most places,
Lions plus five and a half. On Monday night, it's
now down to four and a half, so we're getting
a little bit of an edge in both games. Do
we like either of them better than the Jets? I'm
not sure that I do, but they're available.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
I can't I think, I'm just yeah, I just I'm
not confident enough and I don't have enough money on it.
Where like the Chiefs, My Chiefs bets have honestly just
been money line. Like if I'm if I'm putting big
money into it, I'm just going to totally take out
all the risk and just take the money line.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
It's I can't trust the Chiefs team with a big number.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
That's my issue right now, where it's like I just
I can just see them doing enough just to win.
They're they're not the type of team that can roll
teams and blow them out. And really, I've supported the
Chiefs bet all week, and I think we both agreed
on the five and a half just because we're really
betting on Russell Wilson struggling against this Chiefs defense and
(32:53):
there's been a great bounce back spot for Spags in
this defense. So yeah, I can't force it in. Again,
I like Houston better than both those teams.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
Okay, spot, if I had to think I would.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
If we're looking at chalk, I know we're not going
to do it, But our contest is cold.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Three and a half. That's an interesting one and.
Speaker 1 (33:15):
Playing with fire where that is playing with fire.
Speaker 3 (33:18):
Exactly where Like I don't want to put it in
just because it's a good number, and we both betted
at three.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
You know, I was hoping, you know, this contest Arizona
will be three three and a half. They're one and
a half, So another game people have been asking about.
I'm on Arizona, but another game we're not going to
force in the contest, especially we don't even know who
the quarterback is here.
Speaker 2 (33:38):
We are really early Sunday morning, so I don't know
Chad Fields.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
We're kind of stuck with Denver, Cleveland, Houston Eagles, and
then the last one being that damn Jets team of
seven and a half. I think I agree, So no
no love for newing one from you.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
Well, I just maybe I'm making too much of it.
But Christian Gonzales has been ruled out? Do I care
that much? Like he is? He is the game changer
for them in the back half of the defense. Obviously
he hasn't played in the first two games. Does it
matter as much as Drake May's ability to you know,
convert and be accurate? I don't know. Like I've actually
(34:17):
liked the Patriots all week. I saw some twos popping
because probably of Christian Gonzales. So I don't want to
forget about the game. I don't want to overreact to
Christian Gonzales. Right, do I feel better about the Patriots
at one and a half than I do about the
Jets at seven and a half. Patriots at one and
a half at home? Tomlin is a road favorite. I mean,
(34:42):
I could talk myself into it right now.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:46):
My hardest thing, I think you just mentioned his name,
Drake May. That's been my hardest time with that game
is he did get played well against Miami. I wouldn't
mind letting it play out and see him do it
another week. And I'm not forcing a bet on a
bad number because in our contest it is point point half.
Speaker 1 (35:06):
Then I'd rather get the host at seven.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Hugly dogs in Cleveland eight and a half in the
Jets plus seven.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
All right, So fair enough, all right? So this is
our final five, our final five. Here's where we land.
Cleveland plus eight and a half, Houston plus a half,
Eagles minus three and a half, Denver plus two and
a half, j e Ts, Jets, Jets, Jets plus seven
(35:36):
and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. God, this
is going to be a miserable day. Miserable or it's
going to be the greatest day ever. That's the beauty
of Sunday mornings in the fall.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
And nothing changed.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
I know jsn Is came up on injury report for
the Seahawks, that's the number one receiver and came up
with an illness. Oh you know, better than a hamstring.
You just hope today you woke up feeling better. I
think I saw the one of the biggest Survivor contests
in America. Forty percent of the contest picks were on
(36:14):
the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
So yeah, we're screwed.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
Chad and I are on the very chalk public side,
and historical data shows in week three it's again.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
It's it's crazy looking the numbers.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
The upset of the seven and a half point favorites
tends to happen here in week three historically, So I
am praying, praying this gets to seven six and a
half by kickoff for the Seahawks team, so we can
feel a little better about that stupid trend not mattering
for our game.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
But damn darnold Survivor crash course, here we go. Check.
Speaker 1 (36:49):
This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight. It's
seven thirty live to recap all the misery and glory
of the day. Once again, we have no games that
we are putting into our final five for Sunday Night
and Monday Night, so we'll know the answers by the
time we get back on the air at seven thirty.
(37:10):
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel. Also download from your favorite pod platform, Apple, Spotify,
wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe us five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till tonight,
Love you,
Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We
are part of the Volume podcast network business V betting
show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise
guy pay attention. I am Chad Nomand and I am
joined by my co host, my bff, my companion, my
campadre professional better Signmon Hunter.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Hello, Simon God, how you doing?
Speaker 1 (00:23):
Amped? Amped for Sunday? This is the strip down in
the room ease dropping version of Sharper Square. You and
I are gonna nail down our final five picks. Now
that we've had injuries, which there have been some roster announcements,
we've seen some lines move Are you ready to roll
with my brother?
Speaker 2 (00:44):
And wait?
Speaker 1 (00:46):
I feel like I'm at peak energy and you're like
coming off a bender of having been up for ninety
seven hours betting on games.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, and honestly, I'm I'm looking forward to taking like
a little hour nap here before kickoff. So I'm I'm
fired up these Uh. I'm sure people have seen all
the trends and all the stuff this week. It's it's
a known week for dog betters, like it's a good
week through betting dogs and uh yeah, it's uh it's
a busy week, and luckily, you know, we've talked about
(01:18):
all the games this week.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
There's we up to five quarterbacks out or four quarterbacks
are out. We're not really hyper focused on those games,
thank god.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
So uh, for me, it's like, you know, there wasn't
a lot of people complained about already having quarterbacks injuries
and everything like that, But to me, it's you can
avoid those games. There's so many good, good games this
week and so many good lines this week. So yeah,
not not too hyper focused on that Vikings Bengals game.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
But yeah, there's plenty other ones we're gonna talk about.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Here, all right, So let's let's get into it. These
are the games we adzered in on the other day,
and a reminder a lot of times we get we're
in a contest. Those contest lines locked on Wednesday, The
lines move over the course of the past few days
oftentimes are the same. But if we can take advantage
(02:07):
of these contest lines on games that we already liked,
we do. The first one up Green Bay of Cleveland.
That line is pretty much painted seven and a half
across the board. We like Cleveland all week at eight
and a half. It is at eight and a half
in the contest. I still think i'd like Cleveland at
seven and a half for purposes of anyone listening or
(02:29):
watching the show right now. But you're not getting the
best of the number. So at eight and a half,
to me, it feels like we've played it. It's eight
and a half in the contest, feels like we want
to lock in on that one.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
Yeah, another game we were never going to avoid. And
this is what I love about me and Chad doing
the show together, that there's some games that one of
us could talk to the other person out of this game.
As soon as I saw the number, I said, there's
no there's no way we don't take this number, let
alone having the contest.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
And there's still one very public book.
Speaker 3 (03:03):
Out there that has eight and a half. Yes, but
I don't mind grabbing the seven and a half at
hard rocket. If that's your heart, if that's the only
choice you have, you're still getting a really good number
with the hook. And let's be honest, the difference between
seven and a half eight and a half, it's just mental,
like the odds of it actually landing on eight. It's
obviously there's percent show chance, So that's why you want
the best of the number. But I just see this
(03:26):
one either being a field goal win by green Bay
honesty or somehow Cleveland pulls up the opposite.
Speaker 2 (03:32):
You just again, we're in week three here.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
Week three, you see a lot of really weird stuff
where there's teams that get heavily overvalued and there's teams
that get heavily undervalued, and you see the line reflect that.
And you've seen it here, right, it's been I mean,
there's a couple of books that are getting Cleveland money,
but the most most bookmakers I've talked through this week,
it's just all green Bay money. And they're very happy
when I come into bet on Cleveland. So they they
(03:56):
they've needed to help from their professionals balance in the
books just because of how how heavy they are with
the moneyline parlais, the teasers. Everything is just on green Bay,
Green Bay. You know, I don't know how many people
took them with their survivor pool, right, it's green Bay
on the road. But they're just people are doing that,
which is a crazy thing to think about, right. It's
it's just a variable love team right now. Because people
(04:16):
are so hyper focused on the defensive line and how
well Jordan loves to play for good reason. Right, they
look like the best team right now in the NFC,
but we see timetime again. It's really hard to be
at your best three four weeks in a row, especially
in the NFL, especially when you're going up against a
Cleveland defensive line. So yeah, me and Chad know the deal.
We are betting on Joe Flacco. We're gonna need a
(04:37):
back door. We're gonna need a miracle cover at some point,
and uh yeah, it's it's really us putting our faith
into this Cleveland defense and also that their offense is
as bad as the public reception is right now.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
So Jed I I.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
Unfortunately I thought on Thursday, maybe something will happen. I
can talk chat out of this one. But this is
I knew it right away last week on Sunday. This
is gonna be guaranteed in our contest, especially at eight
and a half.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Guy, I was never going to be talked out of
this one. Like I wanted you. I wanted you to
talk me out of it. I was desperate. I told
you I watched the condensed version of this game on
the rowing machine. That's how much I wanted to not
bet on Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
I was looking at.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Yeah, the Ravens Cleveland game. I was I was desperate
to not have to bet on the Browns. But I
just like the number. It's number one and number two
rush defenses in yards per carry. So if green Bay
is going to win this game, it's going to because
Jordan Love throws deep in over the top. But that
also plays itself, I think too, a lot more in completions,
(05:43):
a lot more potential plays in the game, So that
could favor Cleveland because it allows for a little more
variants and turnovers and things like that. So we're gonna
be on the Browns. We can try to rationalize it
any any way we want. Looking at the numbers, we're
on a elite, top tier defense at home against an
(06:04):
overvalued team versus an undervalued team. We're just gonna do it.
Love it Houston at Jacksonville. So this got to two
and a half. It's at one and a half right now. Wise,
guys have been hitting this the Jacksonville Jaguarser plus one
and a half. It got to two and a half
for like two hours in the middle of the week,
(06:25):
and then it kept moving down, down down, I think
for this game. We like Houston. We've bet Houston. We
really have to believe that the quality of the Texans
losses against the Bucks and the Rams shows that they
are the better team here and that their history of
consistently winning in their division is going to prove to
(06:50):
be the difference against a Jacks team. I don't think
we're sold on considering the two games they played so far.
Speaker 3 (06:57):
Yeah, and as hard don't want to beg at tale
for the Texans, there's a lot of things that are
shown up on tape that I think a lot of
people are seeing in the football world that is pretty
alarming on this Texans team and not something we think
they're gonna overnight fix.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Right.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Their run defense might be a major problem for them
going forward this season, and obviously they don't really have
a running game. And you know, we joke that Nick
Chubb touchdown. The more you watch it, the more you
do realize that was a.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Gimme, Right.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
They just don't have that running back right now that
can offset CJ. And that's that's a big deal because
last year you did see Joe Mixon was very very
good for them, even if the numbers don't back it up.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
He was an effective weapon, especially in the red zend
for them last year.
Speaker 3 (07:43):
So this one with the Texans really is about us
trusting the numbers and once again teams or just I
should say, the public leaving these teams for dead. Right.
They're owing to oh and two against the spread and
it's only for professional money. The only the thing that
gives me hesitation with them is I don't know if
(08:04):
I don't know about you chat, I don't know if
I've talked to a single professional better that's on the Jaguars.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
It's all Texans.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
I know the public is on the Jaguars, and which
I totally understand, but it's always little nerve wrecking where
it's just like last week with the Jets, where it's
just all love for this side. And like you said,
the numbers come down our contest, it's plus a half,
but we're not even getting one and a half if
we take the Texans. We're literally we're saying they're gonna
win this game, like they're not. I mean, they're not
(08:31):
tying this game. So do we believe Houston can win
this game?
Speaker 2 (08:36):
I do.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
It's a team that has done really well against the Jaguars.
Doesn't matter who their coaches, who their quarterback is just
consistently they've matched up well against them, and we know
divisionally there's weird things like that, there's weird quirks like
that were different teams.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
You know, just scheme up against well against other teams.
Speaker 3 (08:52):
So it's we wouldn't be shocked Houston going over three.
They have major issues, but I love a deper team
like they are with a type of mentality. Happened Dmiico
Ryans in this spot against a Jacksonville team that could
be fraudulent, Like we gave him a lot of love
because they beat up on a Panthers defense and then
(09:14):
beat up on a Cincinnati defense.
Speaker 2 (09:16):
Here we go. This is a true test.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
You have an incredibly desperate Houston's team that got embarrassed
and there's no other way to put it. Like they
let Bucky and White run all over them last week
against the Buccaneers, as Buccaneers did whatever they want in
the run game. So I just tend to love these
teams in these exact spots and all the negativity around CJ,
(09:39):
I expect him to make some big plays for us
in this spot. I know he's hearing the noise and
he's feeling it after being and again just outplayed on
a Monday night primetime game. So we are not getting
the best of the number. Really, why force us to
take a number that's not the best of them. But
there's two games here that we have to pick between.
The Houston's one of them where it's like, I could
you talked out of it, Chader? I wanted to, but
(10:01):
I've been bet into it so heavy. I'm so confident
in the number. I obviously wish we had the one
and a half, but I'll take.
Speaker 2 (10:07):
The half and I'll play it in our contest if
you want to.
Speaker 1 (10:10):
Well, let's you had a whole journey there, because in
the beginning I thought you were gonna say that you're
not really comfortable with it, But then we came around
and we've both been into it. I feel like it's
on the edge, and so I'm with you on that,
you know, So we'll see, we'll see. I mean, look,
we're gonna turn this game on. The Texans are gonna
steamroll that. I'm gonna be like, are you freaking kidding me?
(10:32):
Like we even debated this at one and a half,
Like why are why are we getting in our heads
and dealing.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I know that's what I'm trying.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
You know, sometimes picky you in details. Uh La Rams
at Philadelphia Eagles, it's three and a half. It's three
at hard Rock. If you can get the three, take
the Eagles. I live in Connecticut. I have been waiting
for this thing to get back down to three. It's
not gonna get there. I'm gonna have to bite the
bullet and take the three and a half. We are
(11:00):
against the wise guys on this. I hate that we
are not getting the three, I really really do. But
why can't I get over this Eagles team? Why do
I feel like the Rams had incredible games against two
teams one in the Texans one of the Titans that
haven't found their way yet, and the Eagles are like it,
(11:23):
that uber confident we can win at an eighty percent
level and not even open up our full back of
tricks yet. Stage and Saiquon Barkley could have run for
one thousand yards and eight touchdowns in this game.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
And I will say this, respect the hard Rock for
a hole in the three, because it's no other book here,
especially in New Jersey, has been at the three.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
And it looks like they've been taking the Rams money
and they're just moving the juice like I've been waiting
for four days for this thing to go to three somewhere.
Speaker 3 (11:55):
It's and I was gonna say, you said the professional
size of Rams, it's not.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
I told you it's not as profession Do you think it's.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
It's a weird spot where it's not like I said,
it's not that it's the lazy professional bet, but it
is right, they're they're strictly looking at this is the
Rams have been playing better first two games of the year.
Eagles teams offense looks futrid. They don't look consistent, and
you know it's rare you have the defending super Bowl
(12:23):
champ who just beat the team they defeating the Super
Bowl on the road the week before, be just bad
mouthed by people. Right, it doesn't really happen that often
that the team starts too enough to winning Super Bowl
and people are just down on them. So I think
we're in the same line here of this is just
a surprisingly by low spot and a fade of an
(12:45):
overrated RAMS team that we have no doubt in their
talent level. Right Stafford with those weapons and he looks good, right,
I don't know if it's the shots he's take or
wherever it is. He looks in mid season form like
this is the best he's looked since. You know, I
would say that Bills game going back to last year
when he was at home against the Building, he put
up like forty two points. So you know, we haven't
(13:05):
had this Stafford in a long time. He just looks
totally in rhythm, solely confident. But when you break down
this Eagles defense and how they can attack it, I mean,
they haven't really had to have, you know, shown their
weakness year, but the offensive line is an actual weakness
to this Rams team. And you saw in that Houston game,
right there was a reason they were only have to
put up fourteen points against that Rams defense, and it
(13:27):
was just because Stafford was under rest and didn't have time.
And you look at this match for the Eagles team,
they actually surprisingly have been really really good at a
rushing the passer. And you saw that last week with Mahomes.
It didn't show up in the stats because he scrambled
so much. Stafford is not That's not a part of
Stafford's game at all. He is not the scrambling type.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
So it's gonna ben issues of the game.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
We're gonna look know pretty quick, right, if they can
get Stafford off his spot right or some out of
this or some out of the middle. That's a Jaalen
Carter stat if he can get up the middle, and
then it's about the Eagles getting back to the run game.
I know the whole questions have been about hurts in
the passing offense.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
To me, I get what they're doing. Right.
Speaker 3 (14:05):
There's the same thing you saw with Josh Allen did
on Thursday night. It's like, I'm just not gonna lose
this game, Like you're gonna make the mistake and I'll
trust in our defense and our offense play small enough
not to make that thurnover and you know, make that
huge mistake and you kind of see that that's the
way the NFL is going now. People are gonna start
playing more conservative, just safe for football and trying to
make the other guys blink first. And we've seen it
(14:28):
with Stafford. Stafford is an absolute gun slinger. If he
gets behind seven, he will start throwing to those tight
windows because that's just.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
The type of player is.
Speaker 3 (14:36):
You can't change who he is, right, he is what
he is so I love this number. It's funny where
if this was four, I would honestly have a different
tune on up. But the fact that it's three and
a half, I do think there's a really good value bet.
And I'm with Chad. If you can get the three
like you kind of hard rock, go get it. But
I no issues taking the.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
Three and a half.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
I bet a ton of three and a halfs this
week and next week. I am sure we're gonna be
fading this team, but yeah, I can't believe it. Back
to back weeks, we're gonna be taking the Eagles in
the contest.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
All right, We'll stay tuned for tonight show around seven
thirty pm Eastern after the late afternoon game, so we
could talk about how we're fading the Eagles in week four.
But yeah, like your confidence in the Eagles, booy is
my confidence. And everyone's criticism of the Eagles offense right
now is actually why I kind of like the Eagles offense.
Jalen Hurts does not care what the public is saying.
Jalen Hurts only knows what's happening inside his building and
(15:27):
how he can manage this offense and doing exactly what
he needs to do to win, and if the Eagles
need Jalen Hurst to throw down field more to win
a game, then that's what he's going to figure out
how to do. And so to me, I am just
not that worried about the ineffectiveness of this Eagles offense
at certain spots in the games because Jalen Hurts knows
exactly who he is and what this team needs. Feels
(15:50):
like Eagles three and a half and Brown's eight and
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(18:24):
I want to bring up Dallas and Chicago. Chicago is
a one and a half point underdog right now. That
was our brass Balls bet of the week. I have
bet the Bears at plus one and a half. I'm
pretty sure you have two. For some reason in our contest,
the Bears are one and a half point favorites. That
becomes a pass to me, a pass because I don't
(18:45):
like the way the market has moved, we'd be playing
into a number that goes against everything that we sort
of practice when it comes to taking advantage of when
these lines lock. So this game becomes a pass for me.
In the contest, the Bears are one and a half
point favorites.
Speaker 3 (19:02):
Yeah, my only preach on it is I've bet into
this Bears line.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
I love this Bears spot. And we've talked all week
about it.
Speaker 3 (19:12):
If you bet the Dolphins on Thursday, if you're betting
the Texans tod if you've been in Denver today, you
have to bet this Bears line.
Speaker 2 (19:21):
It's They're all pretty much the same.
Speaker 1 (19:23):
There's no difference in the belief. There's no.
Speaker 3 (19:27):
Again, it's all every team is different, the matches are
all different like that. But at the end of the day,
it's like this Bears team, this I can't believe it.
Undervalued they are. And the fact that everyone I've talked,
even professionals like the Cowboys, and they all give me
the same reasons. And you know, and if I'm trying
to make an argument for this Bears team, them being
(19:48):
their whole secondary being.
Speaker 2 (19:50):
Out is a huge deal.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
I agree with everyone telling us that and you know,
if you have to dream up a match for Dak
CD and Pickings, this is is it? The Bears are
They practice squad guys right now lining up at corner
going up against pro bowlers.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
So that's the that's the nerve wrecking spot here. But
I think mother nature might give us one here.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
I think it might rain, it might be a little windy,
it might be bad weather if we can get.
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Lucky here in Chicago.
Speaker 3 (20:20):
So I'm not going to force it in because it
is a bad number, like Chad said, but I do
think it comes down to Houston or the Bears here
where it's like, I know it's a bad number.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
I know it's minus one and a.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
Half in our contest, but I just I can't get
over how much I love the Bears in the spot
against the Cowboys team that Dak is gonna have stinker games,
and unfortunately he does well like I said, he like
you've seen I talked about his record against teams below
five hundred, he does really well against them. So, once again,
not going to force it because I said it to
Chad that this Bears team they might truly be a
(20:55):
bottom four team this league.
Speaker 2 (20:56):
They might literally be that bad.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
So I love this because this is truly a make
or break, opinion changing type of game where if they
can just come out, Caleb can put together a couple
of really good draps. I mean the over under I
think was fifty to fifteen and a half. Once again,
I like the under there where it's like I feel
like everyone.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
Is gonna be taking Cowboys in the over.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
I'm betting on hopefully some bad weather, loppy game giving
me the under, give me the Bears, and uh it's.
Speaker 2 (21:23):
It's a really gross game, gross matchup.
Speaker 3 (21:25):
So if we don't have to put it, I'd be
sad because me and Chad we both have a Sunday ticket.
If I don't need to make this in my four box,
I would honestly thank you Chad. But I'm glad you're
not as confident in it, because it's like it always
scares me when Bears fans are confident in the Bears.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
It's the ships of the ships are barred. They're like
there are no Bears.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
Fans I feel like left that are truly confident this
Bears team. But I have talked to a couple of guys,
you know, respected money, who are very, very confident in
this Bear side, but that I think what Chad's pointing out,
they're really confident at the plus one and a half. Yeah,
they just think to be a really close game where
I don't know, I still think it should be minus
three Bears, So I still think there's value in this line.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
But once again, I much rather have.
Speaker 3 (22:08):
Four and a half points of value to my model
on the one and a half on the Bears, enforcing
in them at one and a half. So yeah, sucks,
it's a bad number in our contest. But yeah, I
it's gross, but I too, I love I love the
Bears side, and I think their offense is gonna surprised me.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
But Alb's not as bad as he's looked through the
first two weeks.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
He's he's just been put in tough games, tough spots,
and you know, as we said, I think you'll keep
getting better every week as he gets more comfortable this offense.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
Number One, I'm your bestie Bears fan, and I haven't
been confident in the Bears since Justin Fields circa twenty
twenty three. Number One, nobody who's a Bears fan is
confident in the Bears. Ever. We hate the organization, hit
(22:55):
the ownership.
Speaker 2 (22:56):
You haven't managed Mitch MVP ticket.
Speaker 1 (22:59):
Don't lie, dude, But then we're talking about what twenty seventeen,
twenty eighteen like it was real. It is everybody who
is a Bears fan is so angry, bitter, except for
the one dude who goes to every game still wearing
that literal Bear outfit, who my friends and I text
about it like we can't believe this guy is still
(23:21):
doing that for these games. Slight chance of precipitate if
it gets bad. I hope you're right, slight chance of precipitation.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Need the rain.
Speaker 1 (23:30):
We need the rain. We need the rain like a
farmer needed rain during the dust bawl. We need the rain.
I don't know if the Bears make it here with
four and a half points of value being gone in
the contest, All right.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
So.
Speaker 1 (23:48):
Denver plus two and a half just hanging there like
a meatball? Is that something we put in? Like we're
sort of struggling here to find three four and five.
We feel good about the Browns, we feel good about
the Eagles. Who am I missing?
Speaker 2 (24:04):
Yeah? I mean, obviously, you know what I mean.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
I've I've loved Denver all week, really fascinating red number
and line because some books have gotten the Chargers up
to like minus one sixty five on the money line,
but they've held it at two and a half. Yeah,
I mean back in the day used to be like
(24:28):
what a minus one forty five a minus two and
a half, and now some books are holding it whe
they're pricing their money line up to one sixty five.
So I feel like the books and me are in
the same line of Chargers win a close one if
they do win, but they're just there's no way they
cover this number, like that's just and if lated line.
(24:50):
But I love this type of matchup because the Chargers
do cover this. Again, I don't know come January how
I feel about the Chargers, but this would literally my
not just my model, but bookmakers as well changed our
perspective on the Chargers team totally, where it's like, Okay,
we thought they were a top potentially a top ten
team after last week. You win this game, you win
(25:13):
three straight divisional games, and you blow out the Denver Broncos,
You're like, Okay, this is a juggernaut might win this
division type of team now because it's this is just
a bad spot Historically, I gave out the stats like
teams in this exact spot, So playing three straight divisional games,
they're one and six in the last seven this exact spot.
(25:35):
Teams just playing like they just played two straight primetime
night games coming to this spot. One in five in
the last six in the spot. So it's like not
a good spot for a Chargers team. And then we
talked about the public overrating them, overvaluing them, and just
inflating this where you know, tons of love once again
to a team that put up three points in that
(25:56):
second half against the Raiders, like you saw when the
justin We're made to Herbert he can't keep surviving with
no run game like he has through the first two weeks.
Speaker 2 (26:05):
It's just that's not the offense horrible wants to be
running here.
Speaker 3 (26:09):
So can they get it right with the run game
and the Chargers really become that totally complete team that
the general publican sports media, I've already painting them out
to be. I bet you they can't, Like, I really
really love this Denver spot. And bo Nicks, who hasn't
played well through the first two weeks, you expect Sean
Payton him to be able to get right here against
(26:29):
the Chargers defense. Like I said, they do have injuries
to that middle of the field, the linebackers in the secondary.
And you know, Darwin James obviously one of the best
safeties in football. He will be a total game changer
for us in the fact of how he plays this
and how he affects on knicks. But another game strictly
about the number, and we talked that unique spot, right,
(26:50):
It's just it fits Houston two oh and two teams
against the spread on the road against divisional foes. It's
on an historical run, it's on a thirteen to no
run in this exact spot. So the trends like it,
we like it, love the number, and uh yeah, this
is this is an incredibly, incredibly important game in the
(27:13):
sense that it really does feel like it's going to
dictate this division, where I do think the Chiefs will
be there at the end. But Denver, if Denver truly
wants to be the guy in this division, the top dog,
they have to win this. Sponix has to step up.
Speaker 2 (27:25):
So yeah, gross one, hold your nose, take.
Speaker 3 (27:28):
It plus plus two and a half. It's a couple
of threes out there right shop around. You can three
hard Rocks come to three a couple of times here
in Jersey, so definitely shut around for our contest. Though
I love the two and a half. I got no
problem put it in.
Speaker 1 (27:41):
Wow, that's a all right, let's think about this for
a second. Brown's Eagles, Broncos. Let me just throw out
three other games where the lines are to our advantage.
(28:02):
We haven't bet them big, but and they're ugly. Jets
on the road at the Bucks, Panthers at home against
the Falcons, Saints on the road against the Seahawks. We
(28:22):
still need two more games.
Speaker 3 (28:29):
I mean, right now I have Eagles Cleveland Denver, with
Houston as our fourth because we switched out.
Speaker 1 (28:36):
Yeah, all right, so maybe we need one more game.
Speaker 3 (28:38):
Yeah, we can talk to you more. I mean, I
like Panthers. Am I willing to die in the hill
enforce US one? And I'm not like this?
Speaker 1 (28:47):
Can we ask? Can we ask our audience to bet
the Panthers right now? That feels it feels unfair.
Speaker 2 (28:53):
I know I'm betting it if they want to ride
with me. I do think it's a good number.
Speaker 3 (28:58):
I mean, I'm looking at the live lines here. There's
still five and a half's out there. A couple of
books have moved to four and a half, which I
am shocked by, Like, I can't believe a professional group
was putting heavy money on this Panthers team.
Speaker 2 (29:09):
There's just so many other good games.
Speaker 3 (29:10):
But I told you earlier in the week, there's just
a lot of trends that people love in this spot,
and there's a lot of fading trends on this Atlanta
team on their road outdoors. Right, it's a unique spot,
I guess if you're looking at this Panthers team. But yeah,
it's just tough where it's like there's other games. I
like when I bet more so I get your I
(29:31):
get why you brought them up to Panthers.
Speaker 2 (29:33):
I agree. We talked during the week.
Speaker 3 (29:36):
The professionals we heard were on the Bucks, especially at
the six and a half. Our contest is seven and
a half Jets, and that we cannot overstate the offensive
line injuries.
Speaker 2 (29:50):
That's what I'm thinking this team, and I.
Speaker 3 (29:52):
Hate that though, because it is lazy, and I get
why people are complaining about it, where it's like we know,
we everyone knows the injury to this team, and obviously
if the Meca Buca was out would have been a
big deal for us. The kid has I think three
touchdowns through two games, a rookie from uh.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Ohio State that the books drafted.
Speaker 3 (30:10):
He's, yeah, just looks like a gay game Day one
game or stud and that that would have handed me
feel a little more confident because the Jets, outside of
Sauce there their number two in our three corners, are
horrible and this bet really is about short week Baker
(30:30):
just getting into three car accidents in that game, right,
he was just beat up and now he's going to
get some pretty good defensive line with no alignment. Like
to me, this game is just them trying to survive.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
And the same thing.
Speaker 3 (30:44):
I mean, you talk about this Jets team, they fit
the zero to two miles, right, They're the zero and
two team desperate, playing for the season with a backup quarterback.
Speaker 2 (30:51):
So I know, I hate it.
Speaker 3 (30:54):
People probably saw coming the mile the way we're gonna
get stick on the Jets team. I tried to talk
us out of it, being like there's pros on it,
we could avoid it, but he was after our show.
I always put our pickse on Thursday and shoes. I
saw seven and a half on the Jets. It was like,
that's that's pretty interesting. So we'll put it as our
fifth for right now and we'll keep going through the
games here right. Definitely, that one definitely jumped out to
(31:14):
me of give me and chat to avoid it or
is it number two?
Speaker 2 (31:18):
Good?
Speaker 3 (31:19):
And you know this is just how how can the
Bucks overcome all those injuries to their offensive line?
Speaker 2 (31:25):
It's it just feels like it's too much at this point.
Speaker 1 (31:28):
It does? It does? I mentioned briefly Saint Seahawks. We
have the Seahawks and Survivor. I'm not interested in trying
to thread the needle on saying to at seven and
a half or seven and Seahawks and Survivor. I want
to bring up two more games. Chiefs minus five and
(31:49):
a half, that's the contest line at six most places,
Lions plus five and a half. On Monday night, it's
now down to four and a half, so we're getting
a little bit of an edge in both games. Do
we like either of them better than the Jets? I'm
not sure that I do, but they're available.
Speaker 3 (32:12):
I can't I think, I'm just yeah, I just I'm
not confident enough and I don't have enough money on it.
Where like the Chiefs, My Chiefs bets have honestly just
been money line. Like if I'm if I'm putting big
money into it, I'm just going to totally take out
all the risk and just take the money line.
Speaker 2 (32:28):
It's I can't trust the Chiefs team with a big number.
Speaker 3 (32:32):
That's my issue right now, where it's like I just
I can just see them doing enough just to win.
They're they're not the type of team that can roll
teams and blow them out. And really, I've supported the
Chiefs bet all week, and I think we both agreed
on the five and a half just because we're really
betting on Russell Wilson struggling against this Chiefs defense and
(32:53):
there's been a great bounce back spot for Spags in
this defense. So yeah, I can't force it in. Again,
I like Houston better than both those teams.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
Okay, spot, if I had to think I would.
Speaker 3 (33:06):
If we're looking at chalk, I know we're not going
to do it, But our contest is cold.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Three and a half. That's an interesting one and.
Speaker 1 (33:15):
Playing with fire where that is playing with fire.
Speaker 3 (33:18):
Exactly where Like I don't want to put it in
just because it's a good number, and we both betted
at three.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Yeah, and.
Speaker 3 (33:27):
You know, I was hoping, you know, this contest Arizona
will be three three and a half. They're one and
a half, So another game people have been asking about.
I'm on Arizona, but another game we're not going to
force in the contest, especially we don't even know who
the quarterback is here.
Speaker 2 (33:38):
We are really early Sunday morning, so I don't know
Chad Fields.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
We're kind of stuck with Denver, Cleveland, Houston Eagles, and
then the last one being that damn Jets team of
seven and a half. I think I agree, So no
no love for newing one from you.
Speaker 1 (33:53):
Well, I just maybe I'm making too much of it.
But Christian Gonzales has been ruled out? Do I care
that much? Like he is? He is the game changer
for them in the back half of the defense. Obviously
he hasn't played in the first two games. Does it
matter as much as Drake May's ability to you know,
convert and be accurate? I don't know. Like I've actually
(34:17):
liked the Patriots all week. I saw some twos popping
because probably of Christian Gonzales. So I don't want to
forget about the game. I don't want to overreact to
Christian Gonzales. Right, do I feel better about the Patriots
at one and a half than I do about the
Jets at seven and a half. Patriots at one and
a half at home? Tomlin is a road favorite. I mean,
(34:42):
I could talk myself into it right now.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:46):
My hardest thing, I think you just mentioned his name,
Drake May. That's been my hardest time with that game
is he did get played well against Miami. I wouldn't
mind letting it play out and see him do it
another week. And I'm not forcing a bet on a
bad number because in our contest it is point point half.
Speaker 1 (35:06):
Then I'd rather get the host at seven.
Speaker 3 (35:09):
Hugly dogs in Cleveland eight and a half in the
Jets plus seven.
Speaker 1 (35:12):
All right, So fair enough, all right? So this is
our final five, our final five. Here's where we land.
Cleveland plus eight and a half, Houston plus a half,
Eagles minus three and a half, Denver plus two and
a half, j e Ts, Jets, Jets, Jets plus seven
(35:36):
and a half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. God, this
is going to be a miserable day. Miserable or it's
going to be the greatest day ever. That's the beauty
of Sunday mornings in the fall.
Speaker 2 (35:50):
And nothing changed.
Speaker 3 (35:51):
I know jsn Is came up on injury report for
the Seahawks, that's the number one receiver and came up
with an illness. Oh you know, better than a hamstring.
You just hope today you woke up feeling better. I
think I saw the one of the biggest Survivor contests
in America. Forty percent of the contest picks were on
(36:14):
the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (36:15):
So yeah, we're screwed.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
Chad and I are on the very chalk public side,
and historical data shows in week three it's again.
Speaker 2 (36:24):
It's it's crazy looking the numbers.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
The upset of the seven and a half point favorites
tends to happen here in week three historically, So I
am praying, praying this gets to seven six and a
half by kickoff for the Seahawks team, so we can
feel a little better about that stupid trend not mattering
for our game.
Speaker 2 (36:43):
But damn darnold Survivor crash course, here we go. Check.
Speaker 1 (36:49):
This has been Sharper Square part of the Volume podcast network.
We will be back on Sharper Square YouTube tonight. It's
seven thirty live to recap all the misery and glory
of the day. Once again, we have no games that
we are putting into our final five for Sunday Night
and Monday Night, so we'll know the answers by the
time we get back on the air at seven thirty.
(37:10):
Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video,
subscribe to the channel. Also download from your favorite pod platform, Apple, Spotify,
wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe us five stars,
say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till tonight,
Love you,
Host
Colin Cowherd
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I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.