December 23, 2025 • 39 mins
Colin is joined by college football guru Josh Pate to talk all things College Football Playoff.
They start with why the first round of the playoff isn’t as great as advertised and lends itself to massive mismatches and blowouts. Colin argues that the power schools are more than happy to play the weaker schools early in the season and shouldn’t complain when you face them in the playoff (3:30).
They move to the announcement that the USC/Notre Dame series is being put on hold after ND inked a home and away deal with BYU and Colin argues Notre Dame should have offered more wiggle room to USC in order to maintain a respectably challenging schedule (9:30).
They preview Miami at Ohio State and Colin says he’d take Ohio State by a touchdown & Josh argues that Miami will have the advantage in the trenches and has more defensive talent than top SEC & Big Ten teams (14:45).
They move to Oregon vs Texas Tech and Josh argues that TT has more than a realistic shot at beating the Ducks, but that their lack of experience playing outside the Big 12 could hurt them (24:00).
They discuss the enigma that is Alabama football and handicap their chances against #1 Indiana (27:00), and preview Georgia’s bout with Ole Miss (31:15).
Finally, they discuss the job opening at Michigan and why in a stacked Big 10 they will have no margin for error when hiring their next head coach (37:45).
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
This episode is brought to you by Netflix. Netflix is
basically Santa this year. Two NFL games on Christmas Day,
streaming live at one Eastern Cowboys Commanders. Then at four
point thirty, you've got the Lions struggling against the Vikings.
That's Midwest Football Playoff Stakes. Two teams battling it out
for the number one seed last year must win for Detroit.
Watching holiday football as a tradition, the whole family can enjoy,
(00:25):
open some gifts, grab some food, settle in and watch
NFL live on Netflix Christmas Day starting at one pm
Eastern time. He's the host of the Josh Pates College
Football Show. You see him everywhere now. He is ubiquitous
with the sport and we love that he is in
a porch somewhere. Let me guess, don't tell me. Let
(00:48):
me look at the backdrop here. I'm gonna say this
is twenty two miles from Athens, Georgia.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
This is probably about two hundred and twenty miles from Athens, Georgia.
But those are george of pines. You spotted the Georgia pines,
and I'm proud of before it because you're a long
way from here.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I had been around, so identify places with trees. I
used to watch that, Remember the show Cops. I would
be like, Oh, that's Tacoma, Washington. That's my neck of
the woods. There's a pine. I would literally watch that
show and if you turned into it mid show, you're like, Oh,
that's Michigan. Yeah no, No, that's Arizona. That's a palm tree.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I can tell there's another car chase through Appalasia. Those
aren't rocky mountains. Yeah, that's North Carolina. Yet again, I'm glad.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
I'm not the only one that watched that show. So
I said this the other day. I defended the twelve
team college football playoff. I said, listen, I went and
looked March Madness. There's a lot of mythology with it.
I love it. We all love it. But everybody always
talks about the first weekend. Oh it's magical. Oh there's
upsets everywhere. Twenty of the thirty two games last year
(01:55):
in the first round were abject blowouts. The average difference,
the average margin of victory was seventeen points. And we understand.
Though the tournament is large sixty eight, there's about ten
teams with no chance to win a game. And another
six that could win a game, but it would have
to be a favorite literally got into foul trouble. So
(02:19):
I'm okay with two teams of the twelve. Probably not
ideal because I do think the regular season gets diminished
a little bit with a twelve team playoff. I don't
want to see Texas with three losses and two other
games they could have lost. I don't need to see them.
I know what they are and they're not Georgia, Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon.
(02:42):
So my take is in college sports, it could be
a hockey tournament, it could be women's lacrosse if you
do a large playoff, and in football, twelve eventually fourteen
is pretty big. We're gonna have a couple of teams
that are outmanaged, and it's okay. We love March madness.
There's sixteen teams that really are over their skis, but
(03:03):
they'll be one of them that knocks somebody off and
it's feel good. Is that a bad take?
Speaker 1 (03:09):
No, it's actually refreshing because your viewpoint on this is
actually my viewpoint. So I don't get to argue from
someone who shares my viewpoint on this. Very often, Normally
it's James Madison got blown out, that's proof they didn't
belong in the playoff. Well, hey, even if I'm gonna
make the argument Colin, even if I'm gonna be an
anti G five guy, even if I don't believe they
should be in the playoff, it shouldn't be because of
(03:29):
the projected margin of defeat. Because you leave yourself just
a wide open, gaping hole in your argument, and that
is what if they play a close game, was that
evidence that they belonged in or someone could come back
at you. It's a bad faith argument, but someone could
come back at you and say, well, Tennessee got blown
out by Ohio State last year, or any number of
blowouts are gonna happen every year. Is that proof that
they shouldn't have been? In my stance, if I'm gonna
(03:52):
make an anti G five stands, it should only be
about this. It should sound something like, I believe there's
a minimum baseline strength of schedule. Well, you should have
to play in a given season to ward consideration, and
it's impossible for them to meet it. It's not even
their fault. They could win every game by one hundred.
I got power ratings. I'll do sometimes and I think
JMU played I think one of my top fifty that
(04:13):
was Louisville. They lost by two touchdowns, and then their
next toughest opponent was Old Dominion. So if you want
to make that argument, okay, I'm actually with you, and
I'll take it a step further. I've never, as much
as I love college football, immersed myself in it all year.
It is my great passion outside of living itself. I
have never really cared all that much about the playoff.
(04:34):
The Playoff's always been a cherry on top of the
main event, which to me is the regular season. So
I've never allowed myself to get worked up to the
degree of ten or eleven like some people do. You'll
never get me past a six and a half on
this stuff in terms of outrage. And so the other
part about it is you mentioned March madness and how
big it is, how big B and caa tournament is. Well,
(04:55):
the bigger the tournament, the larger the sample size of
anecdotal arguments you're going to have. Because you're gonna be
able to draw on dozens and dozens and dozens of
examples over the years in football, we'll probably get there.
So I'm sure if we do this long enough, two
lanes randomly gonna be at Ole miss Or it's going
to be a dog buy, and that'll be viewed as
forever evidence. It's not evidence of anything, you know.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
I look at it this way, Josh and I love
Nick Saban, But when he says, you know it's they're
a Triple A baseball team in the World Series, I
would say that's interesting because you played three of those
Triple A baseball teams every year at Alabama, and you
got on the phone and scheduled them. So they may
not be worthy late, but they were certainly worthy two
weeks before you played LSU. So let's not pretend these
(05:42):
people don't have a purpose. They give you home games,
and all these schools want minimum eight home games. So
if you're willing to play them over, don't throw a
tizzy fit if you play them in If they go
twelve to zero and you play them in December, I
would argue this the danger and Avens talked about this.
He talked about this years ago when they didn't they
(06:03):
lose to Louisiana in row his first year. I think
at like Alabama or they played Georgia Southern one year
and couldn't stop them, And you will get these smaller
schools that have a quirky offense sometimes or like a
sixth round NFL quarterback and they go five wide and
you're like, holy shit, we don't really pray. I remember
when air Force years ago played Tennessee, and Tennessee was like,
(06:27):
this is a terrible time for us to play the wishbone.
We can't even practice again. So I always think they're listen,
Boise State meat Oklahoma. That's very rare, but I think
there's space for the occasional fun blowout.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
You just mentioned a game, all right, That game, that
air Force Tennessee game was in the late two thousands.
I remember vividly. I mean it was when I first
discovered a dude named Tony here in Columbus, Georgia was
the local bookie back then. I don't know where Tony
is now, but he let me have a five hundred
dollars account. You guys teaser material for your best bets
(07:01):
of the year. You did college football games of the
Year air Force. I still remember the nomenclature you use.
Air Force in their quirky offense is gonna go into Tennessee,
not beat them, but give them nightmares. Your boy here
put an uncomfortable amount of money, which for me was
forty five dollars at the time on air force plus
the points. I remember the game vividly because Tennessee got
pushed to the limit, scared to death and won the game.
(07:22):
And I'm thinking Colin Cowherd, dude actually knows something about
college football. No.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
I talked to coaches of the years, and they're like, man,
if you're gonna if you're gonna play a small school,
don't little wish.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
Stuff in there.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Like you can't even He's like, we don't even have
the playff to use a wide receiver and then he
has to pretend he's a quarterback for two days of practice.
It's like that. It's a nonsense. Here's my other take
the USC Notre Dame thing, and this is why. So
in March I read an article by Pete Tamil New
York Times college football guy, smart guy, and he mentioned
(07:58):
in the article I think it was Mark to April,
but I remember reading it and it said basically, Notre
Dame is negotiated for the college football playoff that if
there's twelve or fourteen teams. If they're ranked twelve, they're
automatically in. And I remember bringing this to somebody's attention
at USC, and I'd gone in USC. People are all
(08:19):
over Manhattan Beach and I talked to somebody in the
athletic department. I'm like, time out. I said, you guys
may want to revisit this. I said, you're in the
Big ten, and the Big ten was always better than
the PAC twelve, but now it's been fortified with Oregon, Washington,
USC and your rival. This is the same time Texas
Oklahoma are going to the SEC. And I said, and
(08:43):
they play in the weakest conference, and because they're not
a full member, they can marginalize the schedule. They can
have a buy in front of you every time they
play you. They could they could just have a buy
and say, okay, we'll play Rice bye, so hide the
playbook by here comes USC. I'm like, I don't have
a problem with you playing them, but you may want
(09:05):
to move it to week zero like you And so
you know, I don't us. He didn't need me to
say that. They obviously thought about it. But my take is,
and I use this today Josh on the show, I said,
consider schedules, class loads. I said, USC, this year they're
going to go to at Penn State, at Indiana. They
have Ohio State, Oregon, Washington. And I said, that's like,
(09:29):
you know, that's like a little trigonometry, a pre calculus.
There's a physics in there. Notre dame schedule next year
is so egregiously bad.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
It's two plus two expore man, it's abc D. Yeah
it is.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
It is shop class and gym class. So I said.
All USC said was, listen, man, we got we got
some mid terms in October. We'll play, but we're not
going to in between our trigonometry and chemistry midterms. We're
not going to play there. We need a little space.
And Notre Dame said, no, we're not gonna do that.
(10:04):
So my take was, if you're not a committed member
of a conference and you're desperate for games, then you
gotta wiggle a little bit for an SEC or Big
ten team that's fully committed. I mean, I look at
Texas's schedule this year, Josh, it was harder than the Falcons.
It was ridiculous. It was just boom boom boom boob.
(10:26):
So my take is, I don't want to hear about
high minded principles. If you have an independent schedule, half independent,
I think you have to you gotta acquiesce a little
bit on this thing. Why am I so wrong?
Speaker 1 (10:38):
No, No, I don't think you're wrong. So I got two viewpoints.
I actually have three viewpoints on this. The one is
just mine, and that is, like I said, I'm a
big time regular season guys, and I'm a big time
rivalries guy. I care about rivalries more than I care
about the playoff. And I'm dead serious when I say that. So, yeah,
I have always viewed it as just egregious that if
you have a rivalry that stood for eighty years or
(10:59):
one hundred years or whatever, that any current coach or
current administrator even has the power to come in and
mess with it. Now, that's my college football worldview. So
then if I leave my worldview, everything you're saying has
tons of validity to it. Of course, it makes sense.
I do think that there's probably a little more merit.
Like if I'm looking at the Sea Saw, it probably
(11:20):
tilts about sixty percent your way in that Notre Dame
needed to come to the table a little more because
of the conference affiliation thing, which is really interesting because
there's been one example, now, one glaring example, where they
finally paid somewhat of a price for not being in
a conference, and that's they're not in the playoff right now.
Right this could end up being another one, but it
(11:42):
doesn't look like it right now. Right now, it looks like, oh, well,
they're not going to play USC but their schedule is
a cakewalk. That's the air conditioner coming on in the background.
By the way, their schedules a cakewalk. Now, I don't
know that people are people are willing to understand Notre
Dame just missed the playoff now because they lost their
two tough games and even went on a string of
ten in a row and the committee still left them out.
(12:03):
I don't know that they can afford to lose more
than one next year. Now, maybe they're going to be
a point, but you look, if they're serious, and by
day I mean the committee at large, if they're serious
about we're really really gonna emphasize and rewards scheduling up,
you're you're really sort of playing a little bit of
game of cat and mouse here, And that's beyond just
(12:23):
my personal wishes. But if you're Notre Dame and your wishes.
We want to make the College Football Playoff, you better
be careful us. He's gonna have enough meat on the
bone with or without you. I don't know that you're
gonna have enough meat on the bone.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Yeah, I mean USC could absolutely lose at home to
Ohio State, and let's say Indiana without Mendos are probably
not quite as good, but good. Let's say they lose
that one and then they beat Oregon and they beat Washington
and they beat their rival and they went You can
make an argument they'll be eleven or twelve. I think
what USC thought is, if you've already got a side
(12:54):
deal with the College Football Playoff, we're not allowing you
to potentially beat us and knock us out. Like, if
we're gonna do it, we're doing it in the sun.
We're doing it in the heat, or we're doing it
in your humidity. But we're not. We're not doing it midterms.
We're not doing that. And so you know I can
back them. I will say the final seven games that
(13:16):
will be played going forward. Last week I did pick
Miami over Texas A and m that that was my
upset pick. I said this all year. Josh I didn't buy.
I watched Texas a andem four times. The South Carolina
game was some of the wildest shit I've ever seen
in my life. Clay Travis deserved props and halftime He's like,
(13:39):
I am betting A and M and I was like,
that takes some courage and he got it. I mean,
that's like the bet of the year. Okay, So Miami
O Ohio State. Listen, you have a break. You're not
asking him to do it week after a week, which
I don't think they could do. I think it's low scoring.
I would take Ohio State by about a touchdown, like
twenty four sixteen ish.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Your thoughts, I'm gonna I'm gonna walk with you so
we can actually hear each other. I went to that
A and M Miami game this past week. I think
that it's it's probably accurate to say Miami may have
the O line and D line edge in that game
with Ohio State, and there's my niece in the background.
(14:25):
I don't think people understand just how violent Miami plays football.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Oh my god, it jumps off TV.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
It's crazy and you may look at it and say, oh, well,
they can't score, and that may very well be what
holds them back. We may be looking at a thirteen
to six final or something like that. But I mean,
there's no way to simulate that. I don't know how
to explain it. I do not call Miami an ACC team.
Nothing about them resembles an ACC team. I know the
patch on their chest says that, but it very much
(14:51):
resembles and probably even exceeds in this given year, what
George is gonna put on the field, what Michigan puts
on the field, probably even what Oregon puts on the field.
So look, I looked at that Ohio State draw as
soon as that thing came out, and you were gonna
get either A and M or in this case, Miami
spat out at you. Then if you win that one,
you probably got Georgia. And so you may be looking
(15:13):
at your first two toughest draws in the first two
games that you play in the bracket. But I I
was at the game the other day, Man, that wind
was no joke, And I think that Miami coaching staff,
that offensive staff looked at it and said, we're not
letting Carson Beck lose this game. We realize our defense
is sunk it. That's what I think like we're I
refuse to believe they're that inept offensively, like that passing
(15:35):
game is that anemic with a multi year starter, I
don't care what people think about him. He's a little
bit better than what you saw the other day. So
I watched Ohio State play Indiana, and they kind of
played a similar game that they've played all year. They
just didn't take advantage of scoring opportunities, and that's what
it took for him to lose. A game that absolutely
could happen here as well. That one's got. It's crazy
because it's got the biggest spread of any of these
(15:57):
games in the quarterfinal round, and I think I can
make a solid argument it's the most intriguing game of
any of them.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
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Game Time out today. So I'm I'm going to roll
the dice in Texas Tech is getting a point and
a half. I only saw him play twice, both times
against BYU, so I will tell you I saw Oregon
play six times, probably probably seven or eight if you
(18:32):
count quarters and halfs. Dante more is probably the difference
in the game. But I do think there is an
advantage being the most ignored team of the final eight.
I mean they, I mean Ole Miss may not be
viewed at this with the same level of projection because
Lane's gone. Texas Tech is ignored. They're like, we don't
even acknowledge the Big Twelve. It's just that weird conference
(18:55):
with so many schools. Does Texas Tech have a shot
to beat or.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
Yeah, they certainly do. There's a there's such a silo
phenomenon about them, Like their stat profile is totally Big
Twelve centric. So what you think about the Big twelve
or what the Big twelve, I'll forget about what we
think about the Big twelve. What the Big Twelve ends
up being in terms of legitimacy will determine the shot
Texas Tech as And for those listening, what I mean
(19:20):
by that is they didn't play anyone out of conference,
so their entire stat profile, if they're number two in
run D if they're number six in pas D. It's
all based on playing Big twelve competition. So what that
will do in isolation sometimes in college football is it
sets you up for real, real disparity in an outcome
when you finally play big time out of conference competition,
(19:40):
in this case in a playoff. And so the thing
I'm looking at I was looking at some of the
odds today in some of the prop markets. Oregon's over
under total rushing yards is one forty two. The most
rushing yards that Texas Tech gave up this year was
I think in the one twenties to Kansas State. I
was talking to some coaches this past weekend and they said, look,
all the respect in the world for Texas Tech, there
(20:01):
is a chance for a legit O line and group
of tailbacks to gash them because of how they have
to play the run. And Oregon is one of the
teams they circled. And so I'm looking at that. They
may be wrong. If there's validity to that, think about
one noble. No one else even came close to doing
that to Texas Tech this year. So if you do that,
you make them play from behind. They won every game
(20:22):
where they had their starter by twenty two or more.
So if you make them play a trail technique type game,
like a trail game script, you flipped their entire season
on its ear. And I also believe with Oregon they
probably benefited as much as anyone from experiencing what they
experienced last year because they had that bye week. But
like they just got their tails whipped and they realized,
(20:44):
we just we peaked in the middle of the season.
We got beat by a team that's peaking now. And
so I mean I went up there in the spring,
went up there a couple of times. That's all they
were focused on in that building was how do we
bottle up what Ohio State bottled up? Well, you're about
to see what that yields in Miami in a couple
of weeks.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
So Indiana is about a six point favorite over Alabama.
Alabama is such an odd team. So Urban Meyers said
this the other day, there's two Alabamas. He goes, the
good one can win the Natty. The bad one is.
You saw the first ten minutes against Oklahoma. I thought
it was over. It was seventeen nothing. I'm like, this
could be thirty four to three. This is brutal. The
good news for Alabama they are built to play from
(21:23):
behind because they don't run. I mean they had one
nice run in that game against Oklahoma, but they have
three really big time receivers. The tight ends can catch,
so if you get ahead of them, it's okay. They're
built to play. I mean they almost it's almost like
they prefer not. They are not. They're not guilty not running.
They'll pass seventeen times in a row. They're like, yep,
this is what we do better. Pass blocking line Indiana
(21:45):
is fascinating. As if Mendoza chops it up three games
in a row, not only is he going to be
the number one pick, what if the New York Giants
have the number one pick, it's Jackson, Dart and Mendoza. Like,
it's a fascinating play. Indiana lost one of their stars
on the defensive front. I think they're really balanced. I
think they're really well coached. Again, what's funny is whenever
(22:05):
this happens where the bigger brand like Indiana, you would
think Indiana favored over Alabama. But I told you that
two years ago. So what's funny is that's telling you
Indiana is a better team. But in Indiana's locker room.
Alabama is the story of the game, and I think
that's an advantage for Indiana. Urban Meyer said keep your
(22:28):
eye on Bama, and he said, well, it depends on
which one shows up. I've watched them six times this year.
You never get the same team for the whole game.
Alabama's just not consistent enough for my taste.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
So I agree with you because I've watched every game
that you've watched. The one thing I wonder is all
right ever since Ohio State did what they did last
year and became like version two point zero of themselves
in the postseason, I will always reserve that compartment in
my mind for a talent roster of a minimum threshold,
(23:01):
which Alabama meets to do that can't run the ball,
hasn't been able to all year. Defense has probably been
a little bit of a revelation relative to what people
expected it to be. So I may have a little
different take on that, like who has the edge because
I think it's insane. So Indiana's got to deal with
that time off thing that Oregon dealt with last year,
and we never really know what that means. But also
(23:23):
like giving Alabama red meat of understanding. Hey, legitimately most
of the country expects you to lose to the University
of Indiana or Indiana University. I think is something that
plays down there. Now. Look, I have never had respect
for programs that require disrespect or require doubt as their fuel,
because I don't think it's a long term sustainable model.
(23:45):
Clemson did it for a while and then everyone believed
in them, and then it's no coincidence they kind of
peaked and fell off because you run out of the
fuel that got you there. I think that if you
got Josh Quavis healthy, who is that tight end. It
kind of played a little bit the other night, Jim
still on his way back. I was a believer that
if Alabama can somehow get over Oklahoma, then there's some
(24:05):
downhill momentum because then they really stand a shot of
getting their guys back and to do that to beat Oklahoma,
what ended up having to happen is ty Simpsons just
had to let it rip and they did. I mean,
they played really, really good offensive ball for the final
three quarters. You take away to pick six, you going
in there and getting what twenty eight or what not
(24:25):
on Oklahoma. In Norman, it was a very very tough
place to play. I say all that to say, you're
probably facing the most well coached, fundamentally sound team that
you will see in this tournament, so you got to
be razor sharp. I do believe that Indiana has stunned
people with their run defense all year because you don't
really see anything else like it. And like I told you,
(24:47):
went with that Oklahoma game earlier this year, with Alabama,
I don't care about that so much. Nor do I
care that maybe you could make Bama play from behind,
cause they're totally comfortable doing it. Trade off is Indiana
can first turnovers just like Oklahoma did the first time around,
and if you do that, it's done. But I'm telling
I don't know why I cannot shake this feeling that
Alabama's going to go out there and give them everything
(25:07):
that they can handle. And it shouldn't shock you on
the surface because it's Alabama doing it to Indiana. But
if you've watched Indiana this year, the suffocate people and
may very well do it Tobama.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Okay, Georgie is a six and a half point favored
against Old Miss. I think they'll win. I'll start with this,
The world's changed. If you took a Georgia team from
four years ago and they faced this Georgia team. Would
this Georgia team get rolled because this Georgia team was
in four close ones?
Speaker 1 (25:39):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Yeah, And I'm I think I was thinking the other day,
I'm like, god, do we understand how even Alabama beat Georgia?
And I knew Georgia was the better team, and I'm like, man,
those Georgia teams like four years ago, dude, it was
I mean, if you count backups who would eventually make
the NFL, you had twenty two NFL players. There was
(26:00):
no position that didn't have a pro And I look
at this Georgia team and I always say, turn the
sound down for the first five to ten minutes of
a game and just walk like you do that with
a Seahawk. You're like, damn, they're fast. That is you
do that with Georgia four years ago. It's like, how's
anybody scoring them? I mean everybody, all their linebackers, their
safeties are all sidelined, the sideline guys. And I watched
(26:20):
this Georgia team and I think if Lane was back,
if Lane was coaching, I'd be like, oh, well, this
could just get interesting. I just I think GEORGIEA is
vulnerable and they still simultaneously could be the best team
in the country.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Where do you land? It's so perfectly stated because I
think they fit finish the season playing their best ball.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
YEP.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
I think now I'm gonna speak, and Kirby Smart may
agree with this, but he had never publicly admitted. I
think they've gotten more out of this team than they
thought they were capable of getting. I think they They're
not flying at thirty five thousand feet like the team,
but to get this team up to twenty eight twenty
nine thousand feet, I think it's been pretty impressive. Having
said that, if you look at what they were required
(27:04):
to do against Georgia Tech and Alabama, which were their
last two games, it wasn't much offensively. This Ole Miss
team is playing with Trinidad Chambliss, who last time he
faced Georgia it was his first SEC road start and
he went there and required Georgia to hang forty to
win the game. Now they did all credit to him.
I was listening to Kirby Talk the other day and
(27:27):
someone was asking him, you know, what does losing Lane
mean to them? And you know how sometimes guys want
to say a whole lot more than they actually do
say in their answer. It was almost like he wanted
to slap the guy in the back of the head
and say, buddy, the guys calling the plays are there.
Charlie Weis Junior is the one that we look at
and we really respect on that offensive staff. Like good
(27:50):
on Lane for putting the staff together and putting the
players there. The ones that we're worried about are still there. Now.
He didn't say it like that, but I was kind
of reading between the lines. I think they I think
they know they've got their hands full in this game.
I think they know they've got the guys that can
stretch the field on them, and they've only faced one
other team capable of doing that down the stretch, and
it was Alabama. But Alabama was rudderless when they played him,
(28:11):
so they never had to deal with it like they
did the first time around. So that one's the last
game on New Year's Day, that one's down that same building.
Georgia's season ended in last year against Notre Dame. Gunner
Stockton was the starter. Then he's the starter now. I
will always wonder Gunner Stockton played a great game against
Olemiss the first time. I firmly believe it's going to
(28:33):
fall on his shoulders to win the game throwing the
ball again. And there's a ton of variants that gets
thrown into the equation when you're asking a guy who
hasn't always been asked to do that down the stretch,
to do that to win a game.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
I'll tell you Trinidad Chambliss, it was about six weeks ago.
I'm watching him play and I text the buddy of mine,
who's GM. I said, I'm watching a smaller Dack. He's
a baller, I said, Man, I said, I know you
guys can't draft him in the first three rounds because
he's tiny. But I'm like, I love this kid, like
(29:08):
I would draft him fifth round and I'd be like,
it reminds me a little of Molik Willis. And you
put him in the other night with no snaps and
you're like, Chicago cantact. He's just too fast, Like I
think Chamberlis is right.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
I'm telling you. I talked to a Georgia stafford the
other day that said, that's the best quarterback will face
in this tournament. No matter who we play, they would
have to play like Ohio State, they'd have to play
the big boys, and they said, when you combine what
he can do with his legs and the throws he
can make on and off schedule, we will not face
a better one. And he's got another month and a half.
(29:40):
It's worth of maturation that he didn't have when we
first played him.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
I'm gonna look this up real quick. I want to
do it because I've seen him play half a dozen times.
I love watching him.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
Yeah, I mean, if you talk about if you talk
about the basketball parallel, sometimes what will carry a team
through that basketball tournament is some guy that you would
not really hurt a whole lot about if you're just
the general public, gets red hot and carries a team.
If you're thinking about that in terms of football players
in this thing, that is one of the guys who
(30:11):
could get hot and carry a team.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
So they list him at six one, two hundred. I
don't doubt the two hundred because he's got his If
you watch him when they take sideline shots or line shots,
the kids, the kids, he reminds me a little honestly
physically a bo Nicks like he's in shape, he's cut.
So they list him. God, he is something else. Second
team all sec. Yeah, they list him at six y' one.
I'm telling you some smart GM in the NFL is
(30:36):
going to take him in like the fifth round. He's
gonna play because he is, he is clever, and I
just it's just fascinating because when I watch these small
guys in the NFL don't last, but they almost all
come into the league and for the first three years
there are these little dots that run around all these
defensive coordinators can't quite figure out what to do with them.
(30:58):
All right, let's close out on this Josh Payton joining us.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
Oh, by the way, let me mention this colin in
the South. There's something really disgusting happening right now with
Old Miss. I have got two people in my own
social circle who predicted Old Miss to go to the
playoff this year, and every bit of their reasoning was, well,
Austin Simmons is going to carry him at quarterback. All right.
We haven't seen Austin Simmons in months, and they're dropping.
(31:22):
I told you sos on me, and I promise you
I would bet my life. Neither of them even knew
who Trindad Chambliss was coming into the season, and yet
their prediction verified because a kid from Farris State ended
up taking the quarterback position and running with it, and
they're dropping. I told you sos on me, and it's
a big problem in the SEC right now.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Okay, so the Michigan jobs really good. I said this
a few years ago. In a perfect world in college football,
you would have like six teams be great Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Georgia,
probably Bama, USC Notre Dame. They would be great.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Right.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
Oklahoma matters, but they don't have a huge national footprint,
same with Florida. I look at the Michigan program and
I I had told a buddy this the other day.
I said, you know, years ago, if you're Michigan, you
hire the wrong coach, you're going to get your ass
kicked for about three years by a Hoois Ohio State,
like a Brady Hoag and then you'll you'll rebuild the program.
(32:30):
But when you miss. Now, if you're it doesn't matter
who you are. Klin de Boord was a big swing.
It's necessary now because now Texas and Texas and Emmeran
and Oklahoma. I mean this bit. The Texas school is
big money. So my take is this idea of Okay,
it's a little sideways at Michigan. Let's let's go get Okay,
(32:51):
let's go get a guy who we can trust, who's
a good guy. It might take his guys usced. This
will be the most talented team they've had since Pete
Oregon's Hamman All. Ohio State's a monster. Matt Campbell will
figure it out with the NIL portal pretty quick at
Penn State. Indiana is now a powerhouse. Washington's oh was good.
Jed Fish won nine games, nine or ten. He won
(33:11):
a Bowl game nine games in a total rebuild that
if you miss it used to be if you miss
Josh in the SEC or the Big ten. After about
two years, you know you could. You could if you
miss now. First of all, coaches aren't leaving. Lincoln Riley
would have been fired six years ago, right, didn't win enough.
Now you're paying so much money for facilities in NIL.
(33:31):
You can't run out coaches on eighty million dollars, yoe them.
So my takeaway is if Michigan butchers this, this it
could be one of these things. You're not going to
go find Jim Harbaugh. A lot of the young coaches
because of the way college football is in IL if
they don't want to deal with it, they just want
to stand the pros and be coordinators. They don't want
(33:53):
there's a real fine line. Now, Like some got Marcus Freeman,
there's a lot of guys that are like if he
bails in college, college is less attractive than it used
to because it's pro football with free agency and paying players.
Is there a perfect hire for Michigan.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Yeah, But I'm going to answer this sort of in
a trick answer fashion. Let's say you and I are
talking a couple of three years ago, Indiana job comes open,
and you asked me, is they're a perfect hire for Indiana?
We don't. We may know who Kurt Signetti is if
you're really, really sick and follow this idea level, but
none of us. You never would. He wouldn't be among
the first one hundred names you mentioned. All right, Well,
(34:31):
that's right. Indiana hired him immediate Grand slam as it
turns out, one of the greatest highers in the history
of the sport. So of course you could do the
whole low hanging fruit thing of who's the next Kurt Signetti. Well,
it's conditional to the program. So who is Michigan's next guy?
Like that? I just have never believed that when you
look at all these hot boards and it's so like,
(34:52):
it's so incestuous. It's the same three four five names
and we can't get de Boor And Kenny Dillingham said, no,
so what do we do? Do we just go with
Biff Pogi for a year, or do we hire Jeff
Brahm or whatnot. You will never convince me the circle
of capable candidates is not way bigger than that, And
people just don't have the head on their shoulders, or
(35:14):
maybe don't have the bravery for lack of many better
terms that Indiana did to be able to go and
take a risk, but take a calculated risk on a guy.
So anyway, when I say that, people say, Okay, well
who's your candidate. I wouldn't know that candidate. I didn't
know Kurt Signidti. But I'm also not running the Michigan search.
(35:35):
It's not my job to know that. And I've always
said if you're running a coaching search, I don't mean
a coaching a search firm, I mean the search firm
gives you the intel. It's in your lap. You got
to make a decision if you don't have a couple
of three names that if they were made public, would
really raise some eyebrows. I don't think you're doing your
due diligence, and you probably need to be subscribing to
the message board getting updates instead of being the person
(35:59):
who search their getting up dates about So I'm I'm
sure that I'm sure what you're saying is true because
I think that they're a bunch of you get your
Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, USC like they're all they're
all in. We know that Michigan from an emotional and
financial standpoints all in. The big story in the Big
ten will be what Nebraska, Michigan State, those sorts of
(36:22):
programs do over the coming years. Wisconsin, because they've all
infused a ton of money into nil they've got it
to spend because of the media dollars. And so in
the SEC you go like eight or nine deep with
programs that some of them suck, but they're fully invested
in trying to win. The Big ten has not been that.
The Big ten is becoming that. And that's why like
(36:43):
if you're the number, if you're Michigan, you're no worse
than number four at any point in that conference, and
the gap between four and five is like falling off
a cliff. If that gap closes, it's like it's kind
of like in the SEC, you may be number two.
Now you may be number eight or nine, because there's
is not a ton of room that you have to
fall to become eight or nine. And that's where you
(37:04):
really get yourself in trouble. If you're in Michigan and
you make a wrong hiring, it coincides with about three
or four of the program simultaneously getting their act together.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Yeah, I mean, it's it's the big ten is. I mean,
it's not as deep, it's not as hardy as the SEC.
But if this, if Indiana sustains it, because next year
USC is going to be good. When when Jade and
Mayava said I'm coming back, I've seen him play live
four times, six' four two thirty pretty easy. Thrower when
(37:36):
he Said i'm coming, BACK i was, like, oh, oh
this is a real. Team, now this eleven win. Team
this is a real. Team so you miss and you're
in trouble BECAUSE i Think Matt campbell At Penn state's
going to fix it real. QUICK i think the nil helps,
him you, know in The big ten Money. Spectacular so all,
right by the, way you tell me about your last
(37:56):
trip To Quick.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
Trip it was last night at about two thirty am
actually In Ringold, georgia AS i was headed home the
cold brew on. TAP i THINK i took a picture of,
it tweeted. Out it's JUST i go with a mixture
BECAUSE i don't really care what stuff tastes like. Anyway
BUT i MEAN i filled up out in the parking,
lot no one there because it's two thirty in the,
morning and then you go hit the cold brew on.
Tap now the added bonus is the kid behind the
(38:17):
counter recognizes because we're just Got Quick trip plastered all
over the, show and SO i got the added bonus
of a friendly face checking us. Out but, man it
has been a godsend for us on the road because
a lot of Times i'm doing those overnight, trips and
so the, gasoline, yes the cold brew on, tap and
the other snacks you know that anyone. Wants it's all
a quick. Trip big friend of the, Program.
Speaker 2 (38:41):
Josh pay thanks push to Con this product contains. Nicotine
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Speaker 1 (39:35):
Com
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
This episode is brought to you by Netflix. Netflix is
basically Santa this year. Two NFL games on Christmas Day,
streaming live at one Eastern Cowboys Commanders. Then at four
point thirty, you've got the Lions struggling against the Vikings.
That's Midwest Football Playoff Stakes. Two teams battling it out
for the number one seed last year must win for Detroit.
Watching holiday football as a tradition, the whole family can enjoy,
(00:25):
open some gifts, grab some food, settle in and watch
NFL live on Netflix Christmas Day starting at one pm
Eastern time. He's the host of the Josh Pates College
Football Show. You see him everywhere now. He is ubiquitous
with the sport and we love that he is in
a porch somewhere. Let me guess, don't tell me. Let
(00:48):
me look at the backdrop here. I'm gonna say this
is twenty two miles from Athens, Georgia.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
This is probably about two hundred and twenty miles from Athens, Georgia.
But those are george of pines. You spotted the Georgia pines,
and I'm proud of before it because you're a long
way from here.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
I had been around, so identify places with trees. I
used to watch that, Remember the show Cops. I would
be like, Oh, that's Tacoma, Washington. That's my neck of
the woods. There's a pine. I would literally watch that
show and if you turned into it mid show, you're like, Oh,
that's Michigan. Yeah no, No, that's Arizona. That's a palm tree.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
I can tell there's another car chase through Appalasia. Those
aren't rocky mountains. Yeah, that's North Carolina. Yet again, I'm glad.
Speaker 2 (01:34):
I'm not the only one that watched that show. So
I said this the other day. I defended the twelve
team college football playoff. I said, listen, I went and
looked March Madness. There's a lot of mythology with it.
I love it. We all love it. But everybody always
talks about the first weekend. Oh it's magical. Oh there's
upsets everywhere. Twenty of the thirty two games last year
(01:55):
in the first round were abject blowouts. The average difference,
the average margin of victory was seventeen points. And we understand.
Though the tournament is large sixty eight, there's about ten
teams with no chance to win a game. And another
six that could win a game, but it would have
to be a favorite literally got into foul trouble. So
(02:19):
I'm okay with two teams of the twelve. Probably not
ideal because I do think the regular season gets diminished
a little bit with a twelve team playoff. I don't
want to see Texas with three losses and two other
games they could have lost. I don't need to see them.
I know what they are and they're not Georgia, Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon.
(02:42):
So my take is in college sports, it could be
a hockey tournament, it could be women's lacrosse if you
do a large playoff, and in football, twelve eventually fourteen
is pretty big. We're gonna have a couple of teams
that are outmanaged, and it's okay. We love March madness.
There's sixteen teams that really are over their skis, but
(03:03):
they'll be one of them that knocks somebody off and
it's feel good. Is that a bad take?
Speaker 1 (03:09):
No, it's actually refreshing because your viewpoint on this is
actually my viewpoint. So I don't get to argue from
someone who shares my viewpoint on this. Very often, Normally
it's James Madison got blown out, that's proof they didn't
belong in the playoff. Well, hey, even if I'm gonna
make the argument Colin, even if I'm gonna be an
anti G five guy, even if I don't believe they
should be in the playoff, it shouldn't be because of
(03:29):
the projected margin of defeat. Because you leave yourself just
a wide open, gaping hole in your argument, and that
is what if they play a close game, was that
evidence that they belonged in or someone could come back
at you. It's a bad faith argument, but someone could
come back at you and say, well, Tennessee got blown
out by Ohio State last year, or any number of
blowouts are gonna happen every year. Is that proof that
they shouldn't have been? In my stance, if I'm gonna
(03:52):
make an anti G five stands, it should only be
about this. It should sound something like, I believe there's
a minimum baseline strength of schedule. Well, you should have
to play in a given season to ward consideration, and
it's impossible for them to meet it. It's not even
their fault. They could win every game by one hundred.
I got power ratings. I'll do sometimes and I think
JMU played I think one of my top fifty that
(04:13):
was Louisville. They lost by two touchdowns, and then their
next toughest opponent was Old Dominion. So if you want
to make that argument, okay, I'm actually with you, and
I'll take it a step further. I've never, as much
as I love college football, immersed myself in it all year.
It is my great passion outside of living itself. I
have never really cared all that much about the playoff.
(04:34):
The Playoff's always been a cherry on top of the
main event, which to me is the regular season. So
I've never allowed myself to get worked up to the
degree of ten or eleven like some people do. You'll
never get me past a six and a half on
this stuff in terms of outrage. And so the other
part about it is you mentioned March madness and how
big it is, how big B and caa tournament is. Well,
(04:55):
the bigger the tournament, the larger the sample size of
anecdotal arguments you're going to have. Because you're gonna be
able to draw on dozens and dozens and dozens of
examples over the years in football, we'll probably get there.
So I'm sure if we do this long enough, two
lanes randomly gonna be at Ole miss Or it's going
to be a dog buy, and that'll be viewed as
forever evidence. It's not evidence of anything, you know.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
I look at it this way, Josh and I love
Nick Saban, But when he says, you know it's they're
a Triple A baseball team in the World Series, I
would say that's interesting because you played three of those
Triple A baseball teams every year at Alabama, and you
got on the phone and scheduled them. So they may
not be worthy late, but they were certainly worthy two
weeks before you played LSU. So let's not pretend these
(05:42):
people don't have a purpose. They give you home games,
and all these schools want minimum eight home games. So
if you're willing to play them over, don't throw a
tizzy fit if you play them in If they go
twelve to zero and you play them in December, I
would argue this the danger and Avens talked about this.
He talked about this years ago when they didn't they
(06:03):
lose to Louisiana in row his first year. I think
at like Alabama or they played Georgia Southern one year
and couldn't stop them, And you will get these smaller
schools that have a quirky offense sometimes or like a
sixth round NFL quarterback and they go five wide and
you're like, holy shit, we don't really pray. I remember
when air Force years ago played Tennessee, and Tennessee was like,
(06:27):
this is a terrible time for us to play the wishbone.
We can't even practice again. So I always think they're listen,
Boise State meat Oklahoma. That's very rare, but I think
there's space for the occasional fun blowout.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
You just mentioned a game, all right, That game, that
air Force Tennessee game was in the late two thousands.
I remember vividly. I mean it was when I first
discovered a dude named Tony here in Columbus, Georgia was
the local bookie back then. I don't know where Tony
is now, but he let me have a five hundred
dollars account. You guys teaser material for your best bets
(07:01):
of the year. You did college football games of the
Year air Force. I still remember the nomenclature you use.
Air Force in their quirky offense is gonna go into Tennessee,
not beat them, but give them nightmares. Your boy here
put an uncomfortable amount of money, which for me was
forty five dollars at the time on air force plus
the points. I remember the game vividly because Tennessee got
pushed to the limit, scared to death and won the game.
(07:22):
And I'm thinking Colin Cowherd, dude actually knows something about
college football. No.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
I talked to coaches of the years, and they're like, man,
if you're gonna if you're gonna play a small school,
don't little wish.
Speaker 1 (07:36):
Stuff in there.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
Like you can't even He's like, we don't even have
the playff to use a wide receiver and then he
has to pretend he's a quarterback for two days of practice.
It's like that. It's a nonsense. Here's my other take
the USC Notre Dame thing, and this is why. So
in March I read an article by Pete Tamil New
York Times college football guy, smart guy, and he mentioned
(07:58):
in the article I think it was Mark to April,
but I remember reading it and it said basically, Notre
Dame is negotiated for the college football playoff that if
there's twelve or fourteen teams. If they're ranked twelve, they're
automatically in. And I remember bringing this to somebody's attention
at USC, and I'd gone in USC. People are all
(08:19):
over Manhattan Beach and I talked to somebody in the
athletic department. I'm like, time out. I said, you guys
may want to revisit this. I said, you're in the
Big ten, and the Big ten was always better than
the PAC twelve, but now it's been fortified with Oregon, Washington,
USC and your rival. This is the same time Texas
Oklahoma are going to the SEC. And I said, and
(08:43):
they play in the weakest conference, and because they're not
a full member, they can marginalize the schedule. They can
have a buy in front of you every time they
play you. They could they could just have a buy
and say, okay, we'll play Rice bye, so hide the
playbook by here comes USC. I'm like, I don't have
a problem with you playing them, but you may want
(09:05):
to move it to week zero like you And so
you know, I don't us. He didn't need me to
say that. They obviously thought about it. But my take is,
and I use this today Josh on the show, I said,
consider schedules, class loads. I said, USC, this year they're
going to go to at Penn State, at Indiana. They
have Ohio State, Oregon, Washington. And I said, that's like,
(09:29):
you know, that's like a little trigonometry, a pre calculus.
There's a physics in there. Notre dame schedule next year
is so egregiously bad.
Speaker 1 (09:38):
It's two plus two expore man, it's abc D. Yeah
it is.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
It is shop class and gym class. So I said.
All USC said was, listen, man, we got we got
some mid terms in October. We'll play, but we're not
going to in between our trigonometry and chemistry midterms. We're
not going to play there. We need a little space.
And Notre Dame said, no, we're not gonna do that.
(10:04):
So my take was, if you're not a committed member
of a conference and you're desperate for games, then you
gotta wiggle a little bit for an SEC or Big
ten team that's fully committed. I mean, I look at
Texas's schedule this year, Josh, it was harder than the Falcons.
It was ridiculous. It was just boom boom boom boob.
(10:26):
So my take is, I don't want to hear about
high minded principles. If you have an independent schedule, half independent,
I think you have to you gotta acquiesce a little
bit on this thing. Why am I so wrong?
Speaker 1 (10:38):
No, No, I don't think you're wrong. So I got two viewpoints.
I actually have three viewpoints on this. The one is
just mine, and that is, like I said, I'm a
big time regular season guys, and I'm a big time
rivalries guy. I care about rivalries more than I care
about the playoff. And I'm dead serious when I say that. So, yeah,
I have always viewed it as just egregious that if
you have a rivalry that stood for eighty years or
(10:59):
one hundred years or whatever, that any current coach or
current administrator even has the power to come in and
mess with it. Now, that's my college football worldview. So
then if I leave my worldview, everything you're saying has
tons of validity to it. Of course, it makes sense.
I do think that there's probably a little more merit.
Like if I'm looking at the Sea Saw, it probably
(11:20):
tilts about sixty percent your way in that Notre Dame
needed to come to the table a little more because
of the conference affiliation thing, which is really interesting because
there's been one example, now, one glaring example, where they
finally paid somewhat of a price for not being in
a conference, and that's they're not in the playoff right now.
Right this could end up being another one, but it
(11:42):
doesn't look like it right now. Right now, it looks like, oh, well,
they're not going to play USC but their schedule is
a cakewalk. That's the air conditioner coming on in the background.
By the way, their schedules a cakewalk. Now, I don't
know that people are people are willing to understand Notre
Dame just missed the playoff now because they lost their
two tough games and even went on a string of
ten in a row and the committee still left them out.
(12:03):
I don't know that they can afford to lose more
than one next year. Now, maybe they're going to be
a point, but you look, if they're serious, and by
day I mean the committee at large, if they're serious
about we're really really gonna emphasize and rewards scheduling up,
you're you're really sort of playing a little bit of
game of cat and mouse here, And that's beyond just
(12:23):
my personal wishes. But if you're Notre Dame and your wishes.
We want to make the College Football Playoff, you better
be careful us. He's gonna have enough meat on the
bone with or without you. I don't know that you're
gonna have enough meat on the bone.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Yeah, I mean USC could absolutely lose at home to
Ohio State, and let's say Indiana without Mendos are probably
not quite as good, but good. Let's say they lose
that one and then they beat Oregon and they beat Washington
and they beat their rival and they went You can
make an argument they'll be eleven or twelve. I think
what USC thought is, if you've already got a side
(12:54):
deal with the College Football Playoff, we're not allowing you
to potentially beat us and knock us out. Like, if
we're gonna do it, we're doing it in the sun.
We're doing it in the heat, or we're doing it
in your humidity. But we're not. We're not doing it midterms.
We're not doing that. And so you know I can
back them. I will say the final seven games that
(13:16):
will be played going forward. Last week I did pick
Miami over Texas A and m that that was my
upset pick. I said this all year. Josh I didn't buy.
I watched Texas a andem four times. The South Carolina
game was some of the wildest shit I've ever seen
in my life. Clay Travis deserved props and halftime He's like,
(13:39):
I am betting A and M and I was like,
that takes some courage and he got it. I mean,
that's like the bet of the year. Okay, So Miami
O Ohio State. Listen, you have a break. You're not
asking him to do it week after a week, which
I don't think they could do. I think it's low scoring.
I would take Ohio State by about a touchdown, like
twenty four sixteen ish.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Your thoughts, I'm gonna I'm gonna walk with you so
we can actually hear each other. I went to that
A and M Miami game this past week. I think
that it's it's probably accurate to say Miami may have
the O line and D line edge in that game
with Ohio State, and there's my niece in the background.
(14:25):
I don't think people understand just how violent Miami plays football.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Oh my god, it jumps off TV.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
It's crazy and you may look at it and say, oh, well,
they can't score, and that may very well be what
holds them back. We may be looking at a thirteen
to six final or something like that. But I mean,
there's no way to simulate that. I don't know how
to explain it. I do not call Miami an ACC team.
Nothing about them resembles an ACC team. I know the
patch on their chest says that, but it very much
(14:51):
resembles and probably even exceeds in this given year, what
George is gonna put on the field, what Michigan puts
on the field, probably even what Oregon puts on the field.
So look, I looked at that Ohio State draw as
soon as that thing came out, and you were gonna
get either A and M or in this case, Miami
spat out at you. Then if you win that one,
you probably got Georgia. And so you may be looking
(15:13):
at your first two toughest draws in the first two
games that you play in the bracket. But I I
was at the game the other day, Man, that wind
was no joke, And I think that Miami coaching staff,
that offensive staff looked at it and said, we're not
letting Carson Beck lose this game. We realize our defense
is sunk it. That's what I think like we're I
refuse to believe they're that inept offensively, like that passing
(15:35):
game is that anemic with a multi year starter, I
don't care what people think about him. He's a little
bit better than what you saw the other day. So
I watched Ohio State play Indiana, and they kind of
played a similar game that they've played all year. They
just didn't take advantage of scoring opportunities, and that's what
it took for him to lose. A game that absolutely
could happen here as well. That one's got. It's crazy
because it's got the biggest spread of any of these
(15:57):
games in the quarterfinal round, and I think I can
make a solid argument it's the most intriguing game of
any of them.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
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(18:11):
Game Time out today. So I'm I'm going to roll
the dice in Texas Tech is getting a point and
a half. I only saw him play twice, both times
against BYU, so I will tell you I saw Oregon
play six times, probably probably seven or eight if you
(18:32):
count quarters and halfs. Dante more is probably the difference
in the game. But I do think there is an
advantage being the most ignored team of the final eight.
I mean they, I mean Ole Miss may not be
viewed at this with the same level of projection because
Lane's gone. Texas Tech is ignored. They're like, we don't
even acknowledge the Big Twelve. It's just that weird conference
(18:55):
with so many schools. Does Texas Tech have a shot
to beat or.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
Yeah, they certainly do. There's a there's such a silo
phenomenon about them, Like their stat profile is totally Big
Twelve centric. So what you think about the Big twelve
or what the Big twelve, I'll forget about what we
think about the Big twelve. What the Big Twelve ends
up being in terms of legitimacy will determine the shot
Texas Tech as And for those listening, what I mean
(19:20):
by that is they didn't play anyone out of conference,
so their entire stat profile, if they're number two in
run D if they're number six in pas D. It's
all based on playing Big twelve competition. So what that
will do in isolation sometimes in college football is it
sets you up for real, real disparity in an outcome
when you finally play big time out of conference competition,
(19:40):
in this case in a playoff. And so the thing
I'm looking at I was looking at some of the
odds today in some of the prop markets. Oregon's over
under total rushing yards is one forty two. The most
rushing yards that Texas Tech gave up this year was
I think in the one twenties to Kansas State. I
was talking to some coaches this past weekend and they said, look,
all the respect in the world for Texas Tech, there
(20:01):
is a chance for a legit O line and group
of tailbacks to gash them because of how they have
to play the run. And Oregon is one of the
teams they circled. And so I'm looking at that. They
may be wrong. If there's validity to that, think about
one noble. No one else even came close to doing
that to Texas Tech this year. So if you do that,
you make them play from behind. They won every game
(20:22):
where they had their starter by twenty two or more.
So if you make them play a trail technique type game,
like a trail game script, you flipped their entire season
on its ear. And I also believe with Oregon they
probably benefited as much as anyone from experiencing what they
experienced last year because they had that bye week. But
like they just got their tails whipped and they realized,
(20:44):
we just we peaked in the middle of the season.
We got beat by a team that's peaking now. And
so I mean I went up there in the spring,
went up there a couple of times. That's all they
were focused on in that building was how do we
bottle up what Ohio State bottled up? Well, you're about
to see what that yields in Miami in a couple
of weeks.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
So Indiana is about a six point favorite over Alabama.
Alabama is such an odd team. So Urban Meyers said
this the other day, there's two Alabamas. He goes, the
good one can win the Natty. The bad one is.
You saw the first ten minutes against Oklahoma. I thought
it was over. It was seventeen nothing. I'm like, this
could be thirty four to three. This is brutal. The
good news for Alabama they are built to play from
(21:23):
behind because they don't run. I mean they had one
nice run in that game against Oklahoma, but they have
three really big time receivers. The tight ends can catch,
so if you get ahead of them, it's okay. They're
built to play. I mean they almost it's almost like
they prefer not. They are not. They're not guilty not running.
They'll pass seventeen times in a row. They're like, yep,
this is what we do better. Pass blocking line Indiana
(21:45):
is fascinating. As if Mendoza chops it up three games
in a row, not only is he going to be
the number one pick, what if the New York Giants
have the number one pick, it's Jackson, Dart and Mendoza. Like,
it's a fascinating play. Indiana lost one of their stars
on the defensive front. I think they're really balanced. I
think they're really well coached. Again, what's funny is whenever
(22:05):
this happens where the bigger brand like Indiana, you would
think Indiana favored over Alabama. But I told you that
two years ago. So what's funny is that's telling you
Indiana is a better team. But in Indiana's locker room.
Alabama is the story of the game, and I think
that's an advantage for Indiana. Urban Meyer said keep your
(22:28):
eye on Bama, and he said, well, it depends on
which one shows up. I've watched them six times this year.
You never get the same team for the whole game.
Alabama's just not consistent enough for my taste.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
So I agree with you because I've watched every game
that you've watched. The one thing I wonder is all
right ever since Ohio State did what they did last
year and became like version two point zero of themselves
in the postseason, I will always reserve that compartment in
my mind for a talent roster of a minimum threshold,
(23:01):
which Alabama meets to do that can't run the ball,
hasn't been able to all year. Defense has probably been
a little bit of a revelation relative to what people
expected it to be. So I may have a little
different take on that, like who has the edge because
I think it's insane. So Indiana's got to deal with
that time off thing that Oregon dealt with last year,
and we never really know what that means. But also
(23:23):
like giving Alabama red meat of understanding. Hey, legitimately most
of the country expects you to lose to the University
of Indiana or Indiana University. I think is something that
plays down there. Now. Look, I have never had respect
for programs that require disrespect or require doubt as their fuel,
because I don't think it's a long term sustainable model.
(23:45):
Clemson did it for a while and then everyone believed
in them, and then it's no coincidence they kind of
peaked and fell off because you run out of the
fuel that got you there. I think that if you
got Josh Quavis healthy, who is that tight end. It
kind of played a little bit the other night, Jim
still on his way back. I was a believer that
if Alabama can somehow get over Oklahoma, then there's some
(24:05):
downhill momentum because then they really stand a shot of
getting their guys back and to do that to beat Oklahoma,
what ended up having to happen is ty Simpsons just
had to let it rip and they did. I mean,
they played really, really good offensive ball for the final
three quarters. You take away to pick six, you going
in there and getting what twenty eight or what not
(24:25):
on Oklahoma. In Norman, it was a very very tough
place to play. I say all that to say, you're
probably facing the most well coached, fundamentally sound team that
you will see in this tournament, so you got to
be razor sharp. I do believe that Indiana has stunned
people with their run defense all year because you don't
really see anything else like it. And like I told you,
(24:47):
went with that Oklahoma game earlier this year, with Alabama,
I don't care about that so much. Nor do I
care that maybe you could make Bama play from behind,
cause they're totally comfortable doing it. Trade off is Indiana
can first turnovers just like Oklahoma did the first time around,
and if you do that, it's done. But I'm telling
I don't know why I cannot shake this feeling that
Alabama's going to go out there and give them everything
(25:07):
that they can handle. And it shouldn't shock you on
the surface because it's Alabama doing it to Indiana. But
if you've watched Indiana this year, the suffocate people and
may very well do it Tobama.
Speaker 2 (25:19):
Okay, Georgie is a six and a half point favored
against Old Miss. I think they'll win. I'll start with this,
The world's changed. If you took a Georgia team from
four years ago and they faced this Georgia team. Would
this Georgia team get rolled because this Georgia team was
in four close ones?
Speaker 1 (25:39):
Yeah?
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Yeah, And I'm I think I was thinking the other day,
I'm like, god, do we understand how even Alabama beat Georgia?
And I knew Georgia was the better team, and I'm like, man,
those Georgia teams like four years ago, dude, it was
I mean, if you count backups who would eventually make
the NFL, you had twenty two NFL players. There was
(26:00):
no position that didn't have a pro And I look
at this Georgia team and I always say, turn the
sound down for the first five to ten minutes of
a game and just walk like you do that with
a Seahawk. You're like, damn, they're fast. That is you
do that with Georgia four years ago. It's like, how's
anybody scoring them? I mean everybody, all their linebackers, their
safeties are all sidelined, the sideline guys. And I watched
(26:20):
this Georgia team and I think if Lane was back,
if Lane was coaching, I'd be like, oh, well, this
could just get interesting. I just I think GEORGIEA is
vulnerable and they still simultaneously could be the best team
in the country.
Speaker 1 (26:35):
Where do you land? It's so perfectly stated because I
think they fit finish the season playing their best ball.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
YEP.
Speaker 1 (26:42):
I think now I'm gonna speak, and Kirby Smart may
agree with this, but he had never publicly admitted. I
think they've gotten more out of this team than they
thought they were capable of getting. I think they They're
not flying at thirty five thousand feet like the team,
but to get this team up to twenty eight twenty
nine thousand feet, I think it's been pretty impressive. Having
said that, if you look at what they were required
(27:04):
to do against Georgia Tech and Alabama, which were their
last two games, it wasn't much offensively. This Ole Miss
team is playing with Trinidad Chambliss, who last time he
faced Georgia it was his first SEC road start and
he went there and required Georgia to hang forty to
win the game. Now they did all credit to him.
I was listening to Kirby Talk the other day and
(27:27):
someone was asking him, you know, what does losing Lane
mean to them? And you know how sometimes guys want
to say a whole lot more than they actually do
say in their answer. It was almost like he wanted
to slap the guy in the back of the head
and say, buddy, the guys calling the plays are there.
Charlie Weis Junior is the one that we look at
and we really respect on that offensive staff. Like good
(27:50):
on Lane for putting the staff together and putting the
players there. The ones that we're worried about are still there. Now.
He didn't say it like that, but I was kind
of reading between the lines. I think they I think
they know they've got their hands full in this game.
I think they know they've got the guys that can
stretch the field on them, and they've only faced one
other team capable of doing that down the stretch, and
it was Alabama. But Alabama was rudderless when they played him,
(28:11):
so they never had to deal with it like they
did the first time around. So that one's the last
game on New Year's Day, that one's down that same building.
Georgia's season ended in last year against Notre Dame. Gunner
Stockton was the starter. Then he's the starter now. I
will always wonder Gunner Stockton played a great game against
Olemiss the first time. I firmly believe it's going to
(28:33):
fall on his shoulders to win the game throwing the
ball again. And there's a ton of variants that gets
thrown into the equation when you're asking a guy who
hasn't always been asked to do that down the stretch,
to do that to win a game.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
I'll tell you Trinidad Chambliss, it was about six weeks ago.
I'm watching him play and I text the buddy of mine,
who's GM. I said, I'm watching a smaller Dack. He's
a baller, I said, Man, I said, I know you
guys can't draft him in the first three rounds because
he's tiny. But I'm like, I love this kid, like
(29:08):
I would draft him fifth round and I'd be like,
it reminds me a little of Molik Willis. And you
put him in the other night with no snaps and
you're like, Chicago cantact. He's just too fast, Like I
think Chamberlis is right.
Speaker 1 (29:19):
I'm telling you. I talked to a Georgia stafford the
other day that said, that's the best quarterback will face
in this tournament. No matter who we play, they would
have to play like Ohio State, they'd have to play
the big boys, and they said, when you combine what
he can do with his legs and the throws he
can make on and off schedule, we will not face
a better one. And he's got another month and a half.
(29:40):
It's worth of maturation that he didn't have when we
first played him.
Speaker 2 (29:44):
I'm gonna look this up real quick. I want to
do it because I've seen him play half a dozen times.
I love watching him.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
Yeah, I mean, if you talk about if you talk
about the basketball parallel, sometimes what will carry a team
through that basketball tournament is some guy that you would
not really hurt a whole lot about if you're just
the general public, gets red hot and carries a team.
If you're thinking about that in terms of football players
in this thing, that is one of the guys who
(30:11):
could get hot and carry a team.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
So they list him at six one, two hundred. I
don't doubt the two hundred because he's got his If
you watch him when they take sideline shots or line shots,
the kids, the kids, he reminds me a little honestly
physically a bo Nicks like he's in shape, he's cut.
So they list him. God, he is something else. Second
team all sec. Yeah, they list him at six y' one.
I'm telling you some smart GM in the NFL is
(30:36):
going to take him in like the fifth round. He's
gonna play because he is, he is clever, and I
just it's just fascinating because when I watch these small
guys in the NFL don't last, but they almost all
come into the league and for the first three years
there are these little dots that run around all these
defensive coordinators can't quite figure out what to do with them.
(30:58):
All right, let's close out on this Josh Payton joining us.
Speaker 1 (31:01):
Oh, by the way, let me mention this colin in
the South. There's something really disgusting happening right now with
Old Miss. I have got two people in my own
social circle who predicted Old Miss to go to the
playoff this year, and every bit of their reasoning was, well,
Austin Simmons is going to carry him at quarterback. All right.
We haven't seen Austin Simmons in months, and they're dropping.
(31:22):
I told you sos on me, and I promise you
I would bet my life. Neither of them even knew
who Trindad Chambliss was coming into the season, and yet
their prediction verified because a kid from Farris State ended
up taking the quarterback position and running with it, and
they're dropping. I told you sos on me, and it's
a big problem in the SEC right now.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Okay, so the Michigan jobs really good. I said this
a few years ago. In a perfect world in college football,
you would have like six teams be great Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, Georgia,
probably Bama, USC Notre Dame. They would be great.
Speaker 1 (32:06):
Right.
Speaker 2 (32:07):
Oklahoma matters, but they don't have a huge national footprint,
same with Florida. I look at the Michigan program and
I I had told a buddy this the other day.
I said, you know, years ago, if you're Michigan, you
hire the wrong coach, you're going to get your ass
kicked for about three years by a Hoois Ohio State,
like a Brady Hoag and then you'll you'll rebuild the program.
(32:30):
But when you miss. Now, if you're it doesn't matter
who you are. Klin de Boord was a big swing.
It's necessary now because now Texas and Texas and Emmeran
and Oklahoma. I mean this bit. The Texas school is
big money. So my take is this idea of Okay,
it's a little sideways at Michigan. Let's let's go get Okay,
(32:51):
let's go get a guy who we can trust, who's
a good guy. It might take his guys usced. This
will be the most talented team they've had since Pete
Oregon's Hamman All. Ohio State's a monster. Matt Campbell will
figure it out with the NIL portal pretty quick at
Penn State. Indiana is now a powerhouse. Washington's oh was good.
Jed Fish won nine games, nine or ten. He won
(33:11):
a Bowl game nine games in a total rebuild that
if you miss it used to be if you miss
Josh in the SEC or the Big ten. After about
two years, you know you could. You could if you
miss now. First of all, coaches aren't leaving. Lincoln Riley
would have been fired six years ago, right, didn't win enough.
Now you're paying so much money for facilities in NIL.
(33:31):
You can't run out coaches on eighty million dollars, yoe them.
So my takeaway is if Michigan butchers this, this it
could be one of these things. You're not going to
go find Jim Harbaugh. A lot of the young coaches
because of the way college football is in IL if
they don't want to deal with it, they just want
to stand the pros and be coordinators. They don't want
(33:53):
there's a real fine line. Now, Like some got Marcus Freeman,
there's a lot of guys that are like if he
bails in college, college is less attractive than it used
to because it's pro football with free agency and paying players.
Is there a perfect hire for Michigan.
Speaker 1 (34:08):
Yeah, But I'm going to answer this sort of in
a trick answer fashion. Let's say you and I are
talking a couple of three years ago, Indiana job comes open,
and you asked me, is they're a perfect hire for Indiana?
We don't. We may know who Kurt Signetti is if
you're really, really sick and follow this idea level, but
none of us. You never would. He wouldn't be among
the first one hundred names you mentioned. All right, Well,
(34:31):
that's right. Indiana hired him immediate Grand slam as it
turns out, one of the greatest highers in the history
of the sport. So of course you could do the
whole low hanging fruit thing of who's the next Kurt Signetti. Well,
it's conditional to the program. So who is Michigan's next guy?
Like that? I just have never believed that when you
look at all these hot boards and it's so like,
(34:52):
it's so incestuous. It's the same three four five names
and we can't get de Boor And Kenny Dillingham said, no,
so what do we do? Do we just go with
Biff Pogi for a year, or do we hire Jeff
Brahm or whatnot. You will never convince me the circle
of capable candidates is not way bigger than that, And
people just don't have the head on their shoulders, or
(35:14):
maybe don't have the bravery for lack of many better
terms that Indiana did to be able to go and
take a risk, but take a calculated risk on a guy.
So anyway, when I say that, people say, Okay, well
who's your candidate. I wouldn't know that candidate. I didn't
know Kurt Signidti. But I'm also not running the Michigan search.
(35:35):
It's not my job to know that. And I've always
said if you're running a coaching search, I don't mean
a coaching a search firm, I mean the search firm
gives you the intel. It's in your lap. You got
to make a decision if you don't have a couple
of three names that if they were made public, would
really raise some eyebrows. I don't think you're doing your
due diligence, and you probably need to be subscribing to
the message board getting updates instead of being the person
(35:59):
who search their getting up dates about So I'm I'm
sure that I'm sure what you're saying is true because
I think that they're a bunch of you get your
Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, USC like they're all they're
all in. We know that Michigan from an emotional and
financial standpoints all in. The big story in the Big
ten will be what Nebraska, Michigan State, those sorts of
(36:22):
programs do over the coming years. Wisconsin, because they've all
infused a ton of money into nil they've got it
to spend because of the media dollars. And so in
the SEC you go like eight or nine deep with
programs that some of them suck, but they're fully invested
in trying to win. The Big ten has not been that.
The Big ten is becoming that. And that's why like
(36:43):
if you're the number, if you're Michigan, you're no worse
than number four at any point in that conference, and
the gap between four and five is like falling off
a cliff. If that gap closes, it's like it's kind
of like in the SEC, you may be number two.
Now you may be number eight or nine, because there's
is not a ton of room that you have to
fall to become eight or nine. And that's where you
(37:04):
really get yourself in trouble. If you're in Michigan and
you make a wrong hiring, it coincides with about three
or four of the program simultaneously getting their act together.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Yeah, I mean, it's it's the big ten is. I mean,
it's not as deep, it's not as hardy as the SEC.
But if this, if Indiana sustains it, because next year
USC is going to be good. When when Jade and
Mayava said I'm coming back, I've seen him play live
four times, six' four two thirty pretty easy. Thrower when
(37:36):
he Said i'm coming, BACK i was, like, oh, oh
this is a real. Team, now this eleven win. Team
this is a real. Team so you miss and you're
in trouble BECAUSE i Think Matt campbell At Penn state's
going to fix it real. QUICK i think the nil helps,
him you, know in The big ten Money. Spectacular so all,
right by the, way you tell me about your last
(37:56):
trip To Quick.
Speaker 1 (37:57):
Trip it was last night at about two thirty am
actually In Ringold, georgia AS i was headed home the
cold brew on. TAP i THINK i took a picture of,
it tweeted. Out it's JUST i go with a mixture
BECAUSE i don't really care what stuff tastes like. Anyway
BUT i MEAN i filled up out in the parking,
lot no one there because it's two thirty in the,
morning and then you go hit the cold brew on.
Tap now the added bonus is the kid behind the
(38:17):
counter recognizes because we're just Got Quick trip plastered all
over the, show and SO i got the added bonus
of a friendly face checking us. Out but, man it
has been a godsend for us on the road because
a lot of Times i'm doing those overnight, trips and
so the, gasoline, yes the cold brew on, tap and
the other snacks you know that anyone. Wants it's all
a quick. Trip big friend of the, Program.
Speaker 2 (38:41):
Josh pay thanks push to Con this product contains. Nicotine
that's an addictive. Chemical what are you reaching for if
you're a smoker or, dipper you're reaching for nicotine satisfaction
and all the problems that come with smoking or Dipic
but you could be reaching For zen nicotine. Pouches let's
talk About zen helps you reach for first, variety ten
(39:03):
flavored and Unflavored zen, varieties neither three milligram or six milligram. Strains,
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(39:25):
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Speaker 1 (39:35):
Com
Host
Colin Cowherd
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