November 28, 2018 • 38 mins
Al Melchior discussed the trade of James Paxton to the Yankees and talked about other trade rumors involving Jean Segura and Mike Leake for Wil Myers. He also talked about the Nationals acquisition of Kurt Suzuki, while C.J. Cron was claimed off the waivers by Minnesota. Al also discussed Kenley Jansen having heart surger and should be ready for spring training. He makes mention of Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann signing with the Braves. Lastly, Al talks about the best round to draft a closer in fantasy. #fntsy #fntsysportsnetwork #brainmccann #braves #joshdonaldson #kenleyjansen #kurtsuzuki #cjcron #wilmyers #freeagents #offseasonsignings
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Ladies and gentlemen,
to the Fantasy Baseball Well, remember this is the Fancy
(00:25):
Baseball Hour. I'm your host, Al Melk. Youre thank you
so much for listening to this episode. And I apologize
because I really wanted to get everybody an episode out
right before Thanksgiving, but to this month, forseen circumstances, it
wasn't to be. And I was really excited because I
was gonna have Tanner Bell on the show from a
(00:46):
smart Fancy Baseball and he's the co author, along with
Jeff Zimmerman, of a great new book called The Process.
I believe I've talked about it on the show before,
but if you haven't checked it out yet, do check
it out. It's called The Process, UH and it is
UH definitely must own, must read UH fantasy baseball prep
(01:08):
for the coming season. And there's a lot of good
stuff in there. So the sooner we all get on
at the better. So I'm gonna help you out with that.
With that today, maybe not so much UH strategy stuff,
but there has been some news. It's now been two
weeks since the last show, so there's a lot to
catch up on. Uh. In just the last couple of days,
the Braves made a couple of signings Josh Donaldson and
(01:31):
Brian McCann, a couple of other UH notes in terms
of player movement, signings, some health and injury news. So
quite a bit to get to. But I'm actually going
to start with news that now is a little bit old.
But since I didn't do the show right before Thanksgiving,
UH that UH might as well talk about now, and
(01:53):
that is the James Paxton getting dealt to the Yankees
and going that you have away just to Sheffield, Eric
Swanson and Dom Thompson Williams talking about the prospects a
little bit too, but obviously the big news here is Paxton.
And whenever there's UH, whether it's a signing or a
trade of this magnitude, right away we we go to, well,
(02:17):
the place where we fancy owners go to, which is
what's the change in value? And I think it's pretty
much of a wash. If I were to lean one
way or the other, I'd say I actually think it's
probably a little bit of a drop in value for
Paxixton because while I think that he'll be able to
help out with winds, perhaps even better as a member
(02:39):
of the Yankees than as a member of the Mariners.
The change in venue is something that does worry me
for him. Now, He's only thrown a total of fifty
four innings over his career in the five parts of
the American League East, uh, and only five innings the
Yankee Stadium, So there's really nothing much to go on there. Uh.
(03:00):
And thirteen of those innings came at Tropicana Field, so
a good chunk of those fifty four innings at the
friendliest of those ballparks. So I'm not even gonna go
there with that analysis because that's just slicing and dicing
up too small of a sample. But we could start
with a very large sample of innings that Paxton has
(03:20):
pitched as a Mariner, uh, and just split it one
way home versus away, And right there there's a little
bit of a red flag because over his career at
Safeco Field, James Paxton has a two point nine eight
e r a tremendous right terrific away from Safeco Field,
that's so tremendous three point eight seven. And yes, pictures
(03:44):
regardless a venue tend to pitch better at home than away.
But uh, this is about a doubling I'd say, even
a little bit more than double the typical home road
split for a picture. So that's a little concerning. Uh.
And a second concern that I have about James Paxixton
(04:05):
is just his overall performance last year a three seven
six r A, which you know, again in the American
League is fine. Uh. And he certainly makes up for
that with you know, made up for it with a
lot of strikeouts. But the r A was up a
bit last year because the home runs were up a
bit one point three home runs per nine innings on
(04:26):
average last year fly ball rate, which is a little
elevated for Paxixton. Uh that in so, certainly he could
regress back to a more normal flyball rate or groundball
of the flyball ratio, whichever way you want to look
at it. Uh. And he's really he's probably gonna need
to do that going to Yankee Stadium, where he's going
(04:48):
to pitch roughly half of his games, and then you know,
having to go particularly to Camden Yards and Roger Center,
although um Fenway Park offensively is not uh, you know,
a break either, So you know, he's got two very
tough parks on the road to pitch in a very,
(05:08):
very tough park was the toughest parks to pitch in
for his home park, and then you're throwing a fourth
a venue there in Fenway Park, which can be a
little challenging as well. So those splits worry me, both
the home road splits over his career and the splits
just for eighteen in terms of the increase in ERA
and home run rate and uh fly ball rate. So yeah,
(05:30):
that's why I think whatever gains he gets just in
terms of run support are probably not only um neutralized,
but maybe even overshadowed by a dramatically more challenging set
of venues that he's going to have to pitch in
next year. Uh So you know that said, I still
(05:53):
probably be happy to have Paxton as uh the number
two starting pitcher, and maybe that's the difference, whereas maybe
as a Mariner, I would view him as with a
ceiling of a low end uh ace in fantasy. Just
for a little perspective here, we've got the ongoing picture
(06:13):
list mock draft going on the picture list picture list
experts mock. It's currently in the midst of the middle
of the sixteenth round. I'm gonna be breaking down this
draft a little bit more later on in the program,
but in regard to relievers, because that that market is
getting very interesting. But Paxton went in the sixth round,
(06:36):
the eleventh pick in the sixth round, so almost the
very end of the sixth round to Paul Sporer going
right before Mike Foltanevitch and right after Mike Clevinger and
Jamison Tyne. So I think that does reflect a little
bit of a downgrade for him. And now I'm trying
to think I'm almost positive that that portion of the
(06:58):
draft occurred after the trade. But this is a slow draft,
so that has been going on for a while. I
think that's fair. I certainly I would. I think it's
pretty much of a toss up. I think between Paxiston
and Clevinger, Clevinger going one spot earlier in this particular mock,
and I definitely still prefer Paxixton default Evitch. And if
(07:20):
you go back a little bit further, like I said,
Jamison Tyne, Yes, in fact, I thought about taking ty
one at one point, uh when I wasn't thinking of
taking Paxixton. So yes, I prefer Tyone. I prefer Patrick Corbin,
Jack Flaherty. These are all pictures that one had had
a Paxiston. One picture I would not prefer who did
(07:40):
go around and a half almost had a Paxiston is
Madison bum Garner and have a little bit of a
massive bum Garner update coming up later in the show
just to use that. Let's talk a little bit about
the prospects going the other way. The biggest name is
just A Sheffield. Uh. I'm not sure he's necessarily the
(08:01):
biggest get um here because he was, you know, certainly
solid last season with Triple A Scranton wilkes Bar. But
just a strikeout rate, so nothing that's really going to
turn your head. A twelve percent swinging strike rate, which
again good. Uh, nothing really to complain about there, and
(08:23):
it's certainly that's going to translate much much better. It's
Safeco Field than it would have a Yankee Stadium. So
Swants or uh sorry that not Swanson, We're gonna get
to Swanson. Sheffield definitely gets a booze going the other way.
But Swanson's intriguing. Two. Uh, he split the year between
Trenton and Scranton wilkes Bar. Twenty four year old pitching
(08:45):
prospect Hades zero point four to e r A at
Trenton and uh a three point eight six e r
A at Scranton and a higher strikeout rate at Triple
A than Sheffield hill scent a thirty five percent groundball right,
so yes, he definitely needs that change of venue as well,
(09:05):
Eric Swanson and then third player involved was Don Thompson,
Williams outfield prospect who and in the Florida State League
Tampa at a two ninety with seventeen homers and seventeen
steals and strikeout rates. So while that's a little bit elevated,
the other numbers are pretty nice, pretty nice for the
Florida State League, so uh not a big time prospects
(09:29):
are projected as a fourth outfielder type, but with some
upside and some power speed potential, so he certainly want
to uh take a look at in dynasty leagues. So
but what's certainly the one that you can come on
to have some sort of impact this year would be
Justice Sheffield to be sure, another bit of news from
(09:52):
a little over a week ago, or actually I think
it's now exactly a week ago, But what would have
talked about it on a show last week if I
did a show last week is a retirement of Adrian Trey,
who had a fantastic and what I would assume to
be Hall of Fame career added two eighties six, had
three thousand, one hundred sixty six hits total four seven
home runs. And the thing that even before retirement that
(10:17):
I had come to associate Beltray with was really a
trajectory which he got better in the second half of
his career, and not that the first half of his
career was bad, although there were periods where I do
recall that he was viewed as sort of a bust
because he came with a lot of prospect hype and
(10:39):
had had some some disappointing seasons, but very very consistent
in his thirties from on, and that was his age
thirty one season in UH spent almost entirely with the Rangers,
although he had the season with the Red Sox in
there as well. UH from age thirty one forward a
three oh seven batting average and got four sixty six
(11:04):
of his hits from age thirty one forward as well
as two seven of his home runs, so great production
in the latter portion of his career. Now, according to T. R.
Sullivan of MLB dot com. Uh, the Rangers expect that
Jerkson Profile is just gonna slide right in and become
(11:26):
the regular third baseman. Profile are a bit of a
super utility role in but expected to see steady playing
time at third base next year. And actually, we'll go
right back again to that pictureless mock that I talked
about just a few minutes ago, because we are, as
(11:46):
I said, in the sixteenth round, I had the second
pick in the sixteenth round, and I took Jerks and
Profile that that had nothing to do with this revelation
I was gonna play regularly third base because I figured
Profile is just gonna play regularly this year, no matter what,
whether it was across multiple positions or at one position.
(12:08):
But for most of the last season I really sort
of papued the growing hype around profar uh that you know,
this was finally the year where he was healthy and
he was making good on his potential. But he did
pick up the pace a bit in the latter half
of the season and in particular hitting with more power,
(12:30):
and wound up being a pretty oppressive season for Jerks
and Profile. He batted two fifty four and I'll get
to that in a second. But twenty homers and ten
steels for him, and that the batting average, I mean,
he he didn't strike out a whole lot. I think
the rate was right around, but batting just two fifty four.
(12:51):
Despite a lack of strikeouts and some good home run power,
he had to sixty nine Babbitt break that. There's really
nothing to support it. Nothing in his profile, and his
expected babbit was an on the nose normal three hundred.
And you look at a profile's profile that's fun the profile,
(13:13):
profile profile, and he looks like a normal babbit pinner hitter.
So there's certainly some upside there in terms of batting
average for jerks and profile and again potential speed power combination. Now,
I just told ten bases last year, but he didn't
get thrown out once, So I have to wonder if
maybe there's a little bit of upside there, maybe he
(13:35):
can steal fifteen bases. I'm not going to project that,
but uh, you know, he could provide a little bit
of help with steals and uh that the power emerged
particularly in the second half last year for pro far
So I am, for one, very happy with him as
a sixteenth round pick in this mock and if he
(13:56):
comes that cheaply in real drafts, I can have a
lot of jerks and profile next year. So that's good
to know. And there is some position flexibility with him
as well. Sorry, let's get to some newer news items.
As I mentioned at the top of the show, Braves
with a couple of signings, both one of year deals.
(14:16):
Josh Donaldson getting signed for twenty three million dollars, Brian
McCann for just two million dollars. McCann, you figure he's
going to go into a pretty even split with Tyler Flowers,
just basically filling the void left by Kurt Suzuki who's
now watching National but Donaldson, so he'll go right in
and be the everyday third basement for the Braves. And
(14:39):
so the question, well two questions on everybody's mind, what
is how how good of a gamble is this? For
the Braves signed Donaldson to this one year deal? But
also what about y'all had Camargo who had a pretty
nice little breakout season playing pretty regularly at third base
for the Braves. So the plan for him is to
become a super util the player, and he certainly does
(15:01):
have the the defensive skills and versatility to fill that role.
So it's it's pretty much good news all the way around.
And I suppose that there's anybody maybe who pays a
price here where it's not such good news. Maybe it's
Dansby Swanson who perhaps gets a little bit less of
a chance two play every day and and see if
(15:24):
he can develop into the type of player, uh that
the Braves are certainly hoping he would be when they
traded for him or uh, you know, when the Diamondbacks
drafted him first overall. Uh. So I'm not sure how
much that's really gonna affect Swanson because it's really hard
to see, for example, Assi Albis getting that much time off.
Maybe it's gonna be a day here and there to
(15:47):
keep Donaldson fresh and healthy. Certainly a little bit of
time in the outfield, I would think for Camargo. So
it's not totally clear how he's going to accumulate regular
playing time, but that's that's the plan. That's the Braves
reported plan for Camargo. But as far as Donaldson's concerned,
coming off of season where he just accumulated two nineteen
(16:10):
plate appearances, so injury is really taking their toll on him,
both in terms of playing time and in terms of production,
he had just two forty six. The power was there,
although maybe not quite to the same degree that we're
accustomed to eight home runs in those two nineteen plate appearances.
But the thing that concerns me for donald Donaldson's I
(16:31):
don't see any big erosion of his power despite dealing
with injuries. For me, it's the it's the the strikeout rate,
because it not only was up last season, it's really
it's been up two years running for him. Uh, up
in in the like lower which is not bad, but
(16:55):
not you know, not what he did during his best seasons,
not what would be ideal. So that that is actually
the thing that worries me a bit, I would say that,
and plus just the hope that he stays healthy. So yeah,
I don't expect that a Bay is going to have
to reach to get Josh Donaldson this season. I you know,
(17:18):
there's still a lot of upside. I think the fact
that there hasn't been much of erosion of power is
a really good sign. But obviously it's it's a risky pick.
And if there's more erosion of the of the strikeout right,
then that's that's a concern. The Reds resigned right Sol
Glaciers for a three year deal and the three year
deals for twenty four point one million dollars. The rationale
(17:42):
behind this was that he was signed as an international
free agent and so given the way that his initial
contract was done, he could have started arbitration as soon
as this offseason. So it's a way for the Reds
to have just you know, locked him in, uh for
for three years. Uh, you know, not have to worry
worry about arbitration. But there's another angle to this too
(18:03):
that that's really I think very interesting. Uh. This coming
from Bobby Nightingale of the Cincinnati Inquirer. Not to be
confused with Bob Knightingale of USA Today, but Bobby knighting
Gale to the piece for the Inquirer talking about how
this new deal could me maybe a changing role for
(18:24):
a Glaciers because, uh, if he wasn't locked in to
a three year contract and his salary was going to
be contingent perhaps upon his counting stats, i e. Saves, Uh,
there may have been more pressure for David Bell to
keep Ricel Glaciers in that closure's role and keep them
(18:46):
in there as just a regular traditional closer rather than
you know somebody who's platoon ng or uh, you know,
splitting time with somebody else or filling multiple roles. I'll
um and R. Miller or Josh Hayder, but without any
sort of incentive structure for says, whether it's in the
contract itself or through the arbitration process. Uh. At this
(19:10):
Nightingale column, he sort of surmises that maybe David Bell
is going to be a little bit more flexible in
the way that he uses a glaciers and part of
that has to do with just a glaciers history as
a picture itself that um, he first of all, he
started out as a starter and you may remember that
(19:33):
the plan that Brian Price had and I believe it's
now going back two years where he wanted to use
a Glaciers and Michael Lorenzen sort of interchangeably as co
closers and have them when they were not closing pitch
multiple innings and I think on occasion even when they
were closing pitch multiple innings never really panned out. But
this would not free up the new manager, David Bell
(19:56):
to maybe go back to that kind of plant where
maybe a more of a Josh Hayter type of role
for right cell Glaciers where maybe one day, based on
the matchups in the situation, he's in to pitch the
sixth and the seventh, and another day he's in to
pitch the eighth and the ninth, or maybe he's just
pitching the eighth or just the ninth. Maybe he's an opener,
I you know, who knows. Uh. But so's it's interesting
(20:19):
for a Glaciers because I think from a fantasy perspective,
that probably hurts his value. Maybe, I mean, maybe the
lack of saves get is compensated for because maybe he's
going to pitch more innings. So it's really it's it's
really a wild card. I mean, I'm saying I think
it's going to hurt his value, but it's it is
(20:41):
hard to say. It is really hard to say. Uh.
So it's definitely a situation to watch. And just if
you think about this more broadly, that you've got potentially
one more team here that's hopping on the bandwagon of
using relievers in some innovative ways, it really gets harder
and harder to know how to deal with relievers in
(21:02):
a draft. Uh now you've got still you still got
a handful that you know, you're pretty sure what they're
going to deliver. You know, Edwin Diaz is still gonna
be somebody to target, you know, very very early. Um.
In the the picture list mock, Diaz went, I want
(21:22):
to say, I think it was the seventh round. Yes,
he did go in the seventh round, last pick of
the seventh round, and actually he went after Kenley Jansen.
So Jansen, Diaz, Kimberrell, uh like training, those guys are
all going to go pretty early. Um, you know, really
(21:43):
no no controversy there. And you know, if if you're
set on getting them that you have to be prepared,
you know, to go in the seventh maybe the sixth round,
depending on on your league and what owners preferences are.
So you have to be prepared to do that. But
if you don't want to go the elite route and
(22:04):
then you want to go for kind of the next tier,
the brad Hands, the jose Le Clerics, Um, those guys.
There was a run in the picture list mock that
started in the tenth round where those guys went. Le
cleric Osuna Hand Chapman actually went in the tenth round. There.
(22:29):
I think you would still probably be considered by many
to be Um part of the top tier, but that's
not really how it happened in this one. And by
the way, A Glaciers went with the first pick in
the eleventh round, two picks after Lea Cleric. So maybe
if we restarted this mock, maybe look, um, I Glaciers
to go a little bit later. I personally would wait
(22:53):
a little longer on A Glaciers. Now, So if this
mock is indicative, and I think it probably is roughly,
that you would have to be prepared to go in
the tenth round, or maybe even in the eighth or
ninth round, be prepared to go after one of those
second tier closers, because once that tears gone, then there's
(23:14):
just a whole lot of uncertainty. You've got guys with
really good skill sets who won't even necessarily close or
maybe part of a tandem. So you're talking about maybe
a Corey Kinnable type who, if he's an everyday closer,
would be very valuable. But given how Craig Council operated
(23:36):
things this year, there's really no reason to think that
enables going to be a standard everyday type closer. Well
I mean not literally every day, but I did you
know I missed out on that run. I would have
liked to have gotten le Cleric or Hand or a
Felipe Vasquez who also went in that round, but I
missed out on it. I took Louis Castillo with my
(23:57):
tenth round pick, and I gotta say I don't regret it,
because if I had had to wait a couple more
rounds to fill that, I think what was my third
starter slot, then you know I'm was missing out on
some pretty good options. So I went two rounds later
and got Adam out of Vino, who has great skills
(24:20):
but may not close. You know, when I saw that
the Yankees were interested, it's like no, And I mean,
this isn't a real league, so I probably shouldn't have
worried about it. But you know, if I if I
had just drafted him for real, I would much rather
he go to the Mets than the Yankees. Among a
couple of teams that have expressed some interest in Ottavinos,
so that's what you're dealing with. Perhaps after the tenth
(24:42):
round or so, is you know somebody like that, like Ottavino,
or or like knebel Um, by the way, went in
the thirteenth round in this draft. Sir Anthony Domingus went
in the tht round, so it's really really tough. Uh,
And I just yeah, I guess the moral of the
story here is that if you don't, by let's say
(25:06):
the ninth or the tenth round, get somebody that looks
like a very certain target for saves, you might you
may may pay to wait a while because there's just
so much uncertainty and you don't know who's going to
be a closer and which teams are going to have
traditional closures and which aren't. So that's gonna be something
(25:28):
I have to I'm gonna have to figure out like
everybody else over the next two months, Gonna have to
figure out what's my strategy here. We're going after saves,
and I'm very tempted maybe to punt on saves in
drafts and auctions. But the thing is, I have a
feeling a lot of other owners are thinking the same thing,
and how does that change the calculus? So I've got
a couple of months to figure this out. Anyway, Speaking
(25:52):
of closers, and I did mention Kenley Jansen already h
he had the heart surgery that was a scheduled, so
that that's been done. Uh. He did uh an interview
with MLB Network where he talked a lot about the
details of UM, not so much of details of the
surgery itself, but what it means for him going forward.
He said he's expecting a two month recovery time. He
(26:15):
said his doctor says there's a chance that he's not
going to experience an irregular heartbeat ever again. But he
did leave that ten percent chance open there. That He
talked a lot about going to Course Field and going
to Colorado, UM, you know, and so when when the
Dodgers go there for the first time, that's gonna be
a test to see to see how Jansen responds. So
(26:39):
but chance it sounded extremely optimistic that he may just
be done with this heartbeat issue, which which would be great. UM.
He also talked about how when he did have the issues,
part of the problem is that he didn't sufficiently hydrate,
and so that's gonna be a key thing that Jansen
(27:01):
is going to focus on this year, is making sure
that he is well hydrated, uh, for for all the games.
So uh, some very very encouraging developments there. UH on
Kenley Jansen from Kenley Jansen and UH you know, I
would think that he's probably a good, good risk because
after last season, I think probably, you know, as a
(27:24):
as a group, we fancy owners maybe are are a
little more verse. That didn't play out in the that
way in the picture list mock. But maybe it's some
other drafts he'll drop a bit and maybe there's some
some bounce back potential there for for Kenley Jansen. Chris
Archer also just recently had surgery to repair a bilateral
hernia occurring. To stephen Nesbit of the Pittsburgh Post Post Gazette,
(27:49):
the recovery tired for Archer is expected to be about
six weeks, and so that should put him on schedule
to be ready for spring training and for opening Day.
If he's off, he shouldn't be off by much. So
some encouraging news there on Chris Archer. Also a Pirates
move serve a minor one uh. They signed Lonnie Chisenhall
(28:13):
to a one year deal worth two point seven five
million dollars. Part of the plan for chisen Halls that
Hill start the year as a full time replacement for
Gregory Polanco, who will still be recovering from shoulder surgery.
But once Polanco is ready to return. Chisen Hall will
m probably still see some some semi regular playing time,
(28:34):
be a fourth outfielder type, but maybe with a bit
more playing time than a typical fourth fourth outfielder, you say.
Cakuchie is now scheduled to be posted on December five.
H seven year old lefty from Japan talked about before
on the show, but that posting now due to happen
(28:56):
on December five, so that coming up very very soon.
Generally projected to be number three, number four type starter,
So somebody who certainly would be drafted in twelve team
mixed leagues, but the hype level here is certainly, you know,
not Otani or Darvish level, to be sure. The Twins
(29:18):
picked up CJ. Crone awful waivers, and just prior to
this time last week, Crone was d f AD and
a really kind of shocking move by the Rays. Crown
d f AD picked up awful waivers by the Twins.
Crone's role not totally clear at this point. Uh, maybe
could see every day or close to every day. It bats,
(29:41):
maybe split in time between first base and d H
where there are some needs, but there's still Tyler Austin
there and it's not really clear how they would split time.
Also not clear what other moves the twins might make,
But if Crown does play pretty regularly, there's some real
potential here for this to be a good for him.
(30:01):
I broke out last year or this never, don't know
what to do in December last year or this year.
Still this year, technically c J. Crome broke out with
thirty home runs, but only eleven those were hit at
the Trap UH and again one of the more picture
friendly parks, certainly the A L. East, but even in
(30:22):
the A L as a whole, and he had a
sixty point to home run to fly ball ratio at
the Trap. Now he had eight home runs, so eleven
of his thirty home runs in Tampa Bay, another eight
in the other A L. East parks, and there he had.
In those four parks combined, he had a twenty five
(30:44):
point eight percent home run to fly ball ratio, so
more than fifty percent higher than his home run to
fly ball ratio at the Trap and Target Field should
be an upgrade for home runs visa the Tropicana Field
should be UH. This past year for whatever reason, just
because park factors are variable and a little flukey, the
(31:09):
part the home run park factors varieties was not as
high as it had been the couple of years previously
a target field, so I'm, you know, can't that could
be a climate or you know, who knows what, um,
But so it's hard to say if target field becomes
that kind of park over the longer term. It's really
(31:29):
not that much of an upgrade for right handed hitters.
But at least there's there's a potential if you look
longer term at what park factor has been their target field,
there's some potential for c J. Crone to to build
on that breakout that he had in uh Jesse. Chavez
has an agreement on a two year deal to go
back to the Rangers. He started off with the Rangers,
(31:51):
then went to the Cubs where he just blew up.
It was fantastic. Um. So, the two year deal cared
to Jeff Passon of Yahoo Sports is in the eight
in dollar range between this time with the Rangers and Cubs.
This past season, Chaves put up at two fifty five
r a a one point zero six whip, got five wins,
five saves, nine two strikeouts. That's over ninety five and
(32:15):
a third innings, So not quite a strikeout per inning,
but pitched so many innings that he really wound up
helping out with strikeouts, and that combination made Jesse Chavez
the twenty second most valuable reliever in terms of Rhodor
value according to the ESPN Player Raider. So I think
it's it's a bit of a long shot for Chavez now,
(32:39):
even just assuming that he stays in a relief role,
it's a little bit of a long shot to assume
that he would be a top twenty four reliever again
in but you know, a nice skill set there, not
like a big, big time strikeout rape picture. But if
he racks up a lot of innings, he's got good control. Uh.
(33:01):
Last season made some advances in terms of how many
chases he got on auto his own pitches. You know,
if he can come close to maintaining that, he should
have some value one way or another. And there is
the possibility that the Rangers just move them back into
a starting role, put him in the rotation. They certainly
could use him there, but it remains to be seen.
(33:22):
So sort of like with Rice cell Glaciers, very intriguing
situation there in terms of how the Rangers u Shavis
I mean, it's not even I don't think he would close.
There's no reason to replace jose Le Cleric as a closer,
and I haven't heard anything about him being a trade
chip um, although I think that would make some sense
for the Rangers perhaps, but it'll be interesting to see
(33:45):
what they do with Jesse Chavas there. Both the Brewers
and the Phillies are among the teams that have had
some preliminary discussions with the Giants about a potential massive
bum Gardner deal that according to John Morossy, as published
on MLB dot com, now, Matt Bomb did have a
three point to six e r A last year. He
made one starts, but the peripherals all really went south.
(34:09):
He had just a nineteen point eight percent strikeout rate,
a seven point eight percent walk rate, both very uncare
characteristically mediocre for bum Garner, and a forty two percent
hard contact rate, which is just playing not good. And uh,
you know, it remained to be seen if if he
(34:31):
can rebound after admit. I was surprised to see that
bum Garner is still just twenty nine years old, So
if there's anybody who would be poised to to bounce back,
it could be bum Garner despite the injuries and all
the endings that he's put on his arm. But anyway,
(34:51):
so Brewis and Phillies interested in trading for him, and
there have been some preliminary discussions the Mets. According to
Andy Martinez of s n Y dot TV, That's have
been aggressive in their pursuit of Robinson Canoe. I have
to say that's a little bit of a head scratcher
for a team that's got Jeff McNeil, But that's that's
(35:14):
the word. And Cano would if you did go to
the Metsy be going from one picture friendly park to
another in city Field and Canoe numbers other than one
season in Seattle, they were certainly, as far as power goes,
a notch below what they had been when he was
a Yankee, but still very much somebody who can hit
(35:36):
to uh and be a run producer. So it's really
just the power numbers that have that have fallen for
Robinson Canoe and uh, finally here uh Tigers making a
move to add some rotation depth. They picked up Matt
Moore signed him to a one year deal. That's somewhere well,
(35:58):
actually they have not signed him. They have agreed to
sign him to a one year deal worth somewhere between
two and three million dollars. Calling to Jeff Passon, Uh,
that is pending physical still, but Tigers, assuming that that
goes through, Tigers would use Matt Moore as a starter
and granted on the one hand, uh, you know they
(36:18):
could use the depth. They could you know, certainly use
another arm in the uh, in the rotation. But more
was considerably better out of the bullpen after he was
demoted there last season with the Rangers, and as a
reliever he tossed four six endings. He struck out forty
five batters, walk fifteen, which for Matt Moore is actually
(36:40):
a pretty good ratio. But the real problem it's a
big one stings. He gave up eleven home runs and
I'd be going to a much better venue in Comerica Park. Uh,
so maybe that's a good spot for him. Uh. But
again in that relief roll, just a lot of two
thirty four batting average as a starter, the batting average
(37:01):
against was well over three hundred. I mean, he was
just miserable as a starter last year for the Rangers.
So maybe the maybe the Tires could figure something out
again more like bum Garner just twenty nine years old.
Look like when he went to the Giants, maybe he
was on the verge of of kind of turning things around.
But um, you know he's gonna be something I think
of a of a project for for the Tigers. But anyways,
(37:24):
that pretty much puts a bow on all of the
major moves that have happened since, uh, since the last
time I was here. But I will be back next
week with another episode, and that will be the last
one before the Winter Meetings, and for the first time
I'll actually attending to Winter meetings. So looking forward to
(37:44):
sharing what I what I see in here at the
Winter meetings. But really cool that that is, um, that's
uh on the precipice of happening here uh this Winter meetings.
So always be back next week. But until then, I
will be back next week to call the latest and
(38:07):
U have a good one. Everybody enjoy this uh hot
stove season. Let's start to get underway. Take care, m
You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Ladies and gentlemen,
to the Fantasy Baseball Well, remember this is the Fancy
(00:25):
Baseball Hour. I'm your host, Al Melk. Youre thank you
so much for listening to this episode. And I apologize
because I really wanted to get everybody an episode out
right before Thanksgiving, but to this month, forseen circumstances, it
wasn't to be. And I was really excited because I
was gonna have Tanner Bell on the show from a
(00:46):
smart Fancy Baseball and he's the co author, along with
Jeff Zimmerman, of a great new book called The Process.
I believe I've talked about it on the show before,
but if you haven't checked it out yet, do check
it out. It's called The Process, UH and it is
UH definitely must own, must read UH fantasy baseball prep
(01:08):
for the coming season. And there's a lot of good
stuff in there. So the sooner we all get on
at the better. So I'm gonna help you out with that.
With that today, maybe not so much UH strategy stuff,
but there has been some news. It's now been two
weeks since the last show, so there's a lot to
catch up on. Uh. In just the last couple of days,
the Braves made a couple of signings Josh Donaldson and
(01:31):
Brian McCann, a couple of other UH notes in terms
of player movement, signings, some health and injury news. So
quite a bit to get to. But I'm actually going
to start with news that now is a little bit old.
But since I didn't do the show right before Thanksgiving,
UH that UH might as well talk about now, and
(01:53):
that is the James Paxton getting dealt to the Yankees
and going that you have away just to Sheffield, Eric
Swanson and Dom Thompson Williams talking about the prospects a
little bit too, but obviously the big news here is Paxton.
And whenever there's UH, whether it's a signing or a
trade of this magnitude, right away we we go to, well,
(02:17):
the place where we fancy owners go to, which is
what's the change in value? And I think it's pretty
much of a wash. If I were to lean one
way or the other, I'd say I actually think it's
probably a little bit of a drop in value for
Paxixton because while I think that he'll be able to
help out with winds, perhaps even better as a member
(02:39):
of the Yankees than as a member of the Mariners.
The change in venue is something that does worry me
for him. Now, He's only thrown a total of fifty
four innings over his career in the five parts of
the American League East, uh, and only five innings the
Yankee Stadium, So there's really nothing much to go on there. Uh.
(03:00):
And thirteen of those innings came at Tropicana Field, so
a good chunk of those fifty four innings at the
friendliest of those ballparks. So I'm not even gonna go
there with that analysis because that's just slicing and dicing
up too small of a sample. But we could start
with a very large sample of innings that Paxton has
(03:20):
pitched as a Mariner, uh, and just split it one
way home versus away, And right there there's a little
bit of a red flag because over his career at
Safeco Field, James Paxton has a two point nine eight
e r a tremendous right terrific away from Safeco Field,
that's so tremendous three point eight seven. And yes, pictures
(03:44):
regardless a venue tend to pitch better at home than away.
But uh, this is about a doubling I'd say, even
a little bit more than double the typical home road
split for a picture. So that's a little concerning. Uh.
And a second concern that I have about James Paxixton
(04:05):
is just his overall performance last year a three seven
six r A, which you know, again in the American
League is fine. Uh. And he certainly makes up for
that with you know, made up for it with a
lot of strikeouts. But the r A was up a
bit last year because the home runs were up a
bit one point three home runs per nine innings on
(04:26):
average last year fly ball rate, which is a little
elevated for Paxixton. Uh that in so, certainly he could
regress back to a more normal flyball rate or groundball
of the flyball ratio, whichever way you want to look
at it. Uh. And he's really he's probably gonna need
to do that going to Yankee Stadium, where he's going
(04:48):
to pitch roughly half of his games, and then you know,
having to go particularly to Camden Yards and Roger Center,
although um Fenway Park offensively is not uh, you know,
a break either, So you know, he's got two very
tough parks on the road to pitch in a very,
(05:08):
very tough park was the toughest parks to pitch in
for his home park, and then you're throwing a fourth
a venue there in Fenway Park, which can be a
little challenging as well. So those splits worry me, both
the home road splits over his career and the splits
just for eighteen in terms of the increase in ERA
and home run rate and uh fly ball rate. So yeah,
(05:30):
that's why I think whatever gains he gets just in
terms of run support are probably not only um neutralized,
but maybe even overshadowed by a dramatically more challenging set
of venues that he's going to have to pitch in
next year. Uh So you know that said, I still
(05:53):
probably be happy to have Paxton as uh the number
two starting pitcher, and maybe that's the difference, whereas maybe
as a Mariner, I would view him as with a
ceiling of a low end uh ace in fantasy. Just
for a little perspective here, we've got the ongoing picture
(06:13):
list mock draft going on the picture list picture list
experts mock. It's currently in the midst of the middle
of the sixteenth round. I'm gonna be breaking down this
draft a little bit more later on in the program,
but in regard to relievers, because that that market is
getting very interesting. But Paxton went in the sixth round,
(06:36):
the eleventh pick in the sixth round, so almost the
very end of the sixth round to Paul Sporer going
right before Mike Foltanevitch and right after Mike Clevinger and
Jamison Tyne. So I think that does reflect a little
bit of a downgrade for him. And now I'm trying
to think I'm almost positive that that portion of the
(06:58):
draft occurred after the trade. But this is a slow draft,
so that has been going on for a while. I
think that's fair. I certainly I would. I think it's
pretty much of a toss up. I think between Paxiston
and Clevinger, Clevinger going one spot earlier in this particular mock,
and I definitely still prefer Paxixton default Evitch. And if
(07:20):
you go back a little bit further, like I said,
Jamison Tyne, Yes, in fact, I thought about taking ty
one at one point, uh when I wasn't thinking of
taking Paxixton. So yes, I prefer Tyone. I prefer Patrick Corbin,
Jack Flaherty. These are all pictures that one had had
a Paxiston. One picture I would not prefer who did
(07:40):
go around and a half almost had a Paxiston is
Madison bum Garner and have a little bit of a
massive bum Garner update coming up later in the show
just to use that. Let's talk a little bit about
the prospects going the other way. The biggest name is
just A Sheffield. Uh. I'm not sure he's necessarily the
(08:01):
biggest get um here because he was, you know, certainly
solid last season with Triple A Scranton wilkes Bar. But
just a strikeout rate, so nothing that's really going to
turn your head. A twelve percent swinging strike rate, which
again good. Uh, nothing really to complain about there, and
(08:23):
it's certainly that's going to translate much much better. It's
Safeco Field than it would have a Yankee Stadium. So
Swants or uh sorry that not Swanson, We're gonna get
to Swanson. Sheffield definitely gets a booze going the other way.
But Swanson's intriguing. Two. Uh, he split the year between
Trenton and Scranton wilkes Bar. Twenty four year old pitching
(08:45):
prospect Hades zero point four to e r A at
Trenton and uh a three point eight six e r
A at Scranton and a higher strikeout rate at Triple
A than Sheffield hill scent a thirty five percent groundball right,
so yes, he definitely needs that change of venue as well,
(09:05):
Eric Swanson and then third player involved was Don Thompson,
Williams outfield prospect who and in the Florida State League
Tampa at a two ninety with seventeen homers and seventeen
steals and strikeout rates. So while that's a little bit elevated,
the other numbers are pretty nice, pretty nice for the
Florida State League, so uh not a big time prospects
(09:29):
are projected as a fourth outfielder type, but with some
upside and some power speed potential, so he certainly want
to uh take a look at in dynasty leagues. So
but what's certainly the one that you can come on
to have some sort of impact this year would be
Justice Sheffield to be sure, another bit of news from
(09:52):
a little over a week ago, or actually I think
it's now exactly a week ago, But what would have
talked about it on a show last week if I
did a show last week is a retirement of Adrian Trey,
who had a fantastic and what I would assume to
be Hall of Fame career added two eighties six, had
three thousand, one hundred sixty six hits total four seven
home runs. And the thing that even before retirement that
(10:17):
I had come to associate Beltray with was really a
trajectory which he got better in the second half of
his career, and not that the first half of his
career was bad, although there were periods where I do
recall that he was viewed as sort of a bust
because he came with a lot of prospect hype and
(10:39):
had had some some disappointing seasons, but very very consistent
in his thirties from on, and that was his age
thirty one season in UH spent almost entirely with the Rangers,
although he had the season with the Red Sox in
there as well. UH from age thirty one forward a
three oh seven batting average and got four sixty six
(11:04):
of his hits from age thirty one forward as well
as two seven of his home runs, so great production
in the latter portion of his career. Now, according to T. R.
Sullivan of MLB dot com. Uh, the Rangers expect that
Jerkson Profile is just gonna slide right in and become
(11:26):
the regular third baseman. Profile are a bit of a
super utility role in but expected to see steady playing
time at third base next year. And actually, we'll go
right back again to that pictureless mock that I talked
about just a few minutes ago, because we are, as
(11:46):
I said, in the sixteenth round, I had the second
pick in the sixteenth round, and I took Jerks and
Profile that that had nothing to do with this revelation
I was gonna play regularly third base because I figured
Profile is just gonna play regularly this year, no matter what,
whether it was across multiple positions or at one position.
(12:08):
But for most of the last season I really sort
of papued the growing hype around profar uh that you know,
this was finally the year where he was healthy and
he was making good on his potential. But he did
pick up the pace a bit in the latter half
of the season and in particular hitting with more power,
(12:30):
and wound up being a pretty oppressive season for Jerks
and Profile. He batted two fifty four and I'll get
to that in a second. But twenty homers and ten
steels for him, and that the batting average, I mean,
he he didn't strike out a whole lot. I think
the rate was right around, but batting just two fifty four.
(12:51):
Despite a lack of strikeouts and some good home run power,
he had to sixty nine Babbitt break that. There's really
nothing to support it. Nothing in his profile, and his
expected babbit was an on the nose normal three hundred.
And you look at a profile's profile that's fun the profile,
(13:13):
profile profile, and he looks like a normal babbit pinner hitter.
So there's certainly some upside there in terms of batting
average for jerks and profile and again potential speed power combination. Now,
I just told ten bases last year, but he didn't
get thrown out once, So I have to wonder if
maybe there's a little bit of upside there, maybe he
(13:35):
can steal fifteen bases. I'm not going to project that,
but uh, you know, he could provide a little bit
of help with steals and uh that the power emerged
particularly in the second half last year for pro far
So I am, for one, very happy with him as
a sixteenth round pick in this mock and if he
(13:56):
comes that cheaply in real drafts, I can have a
lot of jerks and profile next year. So that's good
to know. And there is some position flexibility with him
as well. Sorry, let's get to some newer news items.
As I mentioned at the top of the show, Braves
with a couple of signings, both one of year deals.
(14:16):
Josh Donaldson getting signed for twenty three million dollars, Brian
McCann for just two million dollars. McCann, you figure he's
going to go into a pretty even split with Tyler Flowers,
just basically filling the void left by Kurt Suzuki who's
now watching National but Donaldson, so he'll go right in
and be the everyday third basement for the Braves. And
(14:39):
so the question, well two questions on everybody's mind, what
is how how good of a gamble is this? For
the Braves signed Donaldson to this one year deal? But
also what about y'all had Camargo who had a pretty
nice little breakout season playing pretty regularly at third base
for the Braves. So the plan for him is to
become a super util the player, and he certainly does
(15:01):
have the the defensive skills and versatility to fill that role.
So it's it's pretty much good news all the way around.
And I suppose that there's anybody maybe who pays a
price here where it's not such good news. Maybe it's
Dansby Swanson who perhaps gets a little bit less of
a chance two play every day and and see if
(15:24):
he can develop into the type of player, uh that
the Braves are certainly hoping he would be when they
traded for him or uh, you know, when the Diamondbacks
drafted him first overall. Uh. So I'm not sure how
much that's really gonna affect Swanson because it's really hard
to see, for example, Assi Albis getting that much time off.
Maybe it's gonna be a day here and there to
(15:47):
keep Donaldson fresh and healthy. Certainly a little bit of
time in the outfield, I would think for Camargo. So
it's not totally clear how he's going to accumulate regular
playing time, but that's that's the plan. That's the Braves
reported plan for Camargo. But as far as Donaldson's concerned,
coming off of season where he just accumulated two nineteen
(16:10):
plate appearances, so injury is really taking their toll on him,
both in terms of playing time and in terms of production,
he had just two forty six. The power was there,
although maybe not quite to the same degree that we're
accustomed to eight home runs in those two nineteen plate appearances.
But the thing that concerns me for donald Donaldson's I
(16:31):
don't see any big erosion of his power despite dealing
with injuries. For me, it's the it's the the strikeout rate,
because it not only was up last season, it's really
it's been up two years running for him. Uh, up
in in the like lower which is not bad, but
(16:55):
not you know, not what he did during his best seasons,
not what would be ideal. So that that is actually
the thing that worries me a bit, I would say that,
and plus just the hope that he stays healthy. So yeah,
I don't expect that a Bay is going to have
to reach to get Josh Donaldson this season. I you know,
(17:18):
there's still a lot of upside. I think the fact
that there hasn't been much of erosion of power is
a really good sign. But obviously it's it's a risky pick.
And if there's more erosion of the of the strikeout right,
then that's that's a concern. The Reds resigned right Sol
Glaciers for a three year deal and the three year
deals for twenty four point one million dollars. The rationale
(17:42):
behind this was that he was signed as an international
free agent and so given the way that his initial
contract was done, he could have started arbitration as soon
as this offseason. So it's a way for the Reds
to have just you know, locked him in, uh for
for three years. Uh, you know, not have to worry
worry about arbitration. But there's another angle to this too
(18:03):
that that's really I think very interesting. Uh. This coming
from Bobby Nightingale of the Cincinnati Inquirer. Not to be
confused with Bob Knightingale of USA Today, but Bobby knighting
Gale to the piece for the Inquirer talking about how
this new deal could me maybe a changing role for
(18:24):
a Glaciers because, uh, if he wasn't locked in to
a three year contract and his salary was going to
be contingent perhaps upon his counting stats, i e. Saves, Uh,
there may have been more pressure for David Bell to
keep Ricel Glaciers in that closure's role and keep them
(18:46):
in there as just a regular traditional closer rather than
you know somebody who's platoon ng or uh, you know,
splitting time with somebody else or filling multiple roles. I'll
um and R. Miller or Josh Hayder, but without any
sort of incentive structure for says, whether it's in the
contract itself or through the arbitration process. Uh. At this
(19:10):
Nightingale column, he sort of surmises that maybe David Bell
is going to be a little bit more flexible in
the way that he uses a glaciers and part of
that has to do with just a glaciers history as
a picture itself that um, he first of all, he
started out as a starter and you may remember that
(19:33):
the plan that Brian Price had and I believe it's
now going back two years where he wanted to use
a Glaciers and Michael Lorenzen sort of interchangeably as co
closers and have them when they were not closing pitch
multiple innings and I think on occasion even when they
were closing pitch multiple innings never really panned out. But
this would not free up the new manager, David Bell
(19:56):
to maybe go back to that kind of plant where
maybe a more of a Josh Hayter type of role
for right cell Glaciers where maybe one day, based on
the matchups in the situation, he's in to pitch the
sixth and the seventh, and another day he's in to
pitch the eighth and the ninth, or maybe he's just
pitching the eighth or just the ninth. Maybe he's an opener,
I you know, who knows. Uh. But so's it's interesting
(20:19):
for a Glaciers because I think from a fantasy perspective,
that probably hurts his value. Maybe, I mean, maybe the
lack of saves get is compensated for because maybe he's
going to pitch more innings. So it's really it's it's
really a wild card. I mean, I'm saying I think
it's going to hurt his value, but it's it is
(20:41):
hard to say. It is really hard to say. Uh.
So it's definitely a situation to watch. And just if
you think about this more broadly, that you've got potentially
one more team here that's hopping on the bandwagon of
using relievers in some innovative ways, it really gets harder
and harder to know how to deal with relievers in
(21:02):
a draft. Uh now you've got still you still got
a handful that you know, you're pretty sure what they're
going to deliver. You know, Edwin Diaz is still gonna
be somebody to target, you know, very very early. Um.
In the the picture list mock, Diaz went, I want
(21:22):
to say, I think it was the seventh round. Yes,
he did go in the seventh round, last pick of
the seventh round, and actually he went after Kenley Jansen.
So Jansen, Diaz, Kimberrell, uh like training, those guys are
all going to go pretty early. Um, you know, really
(21:43):
no no controversy there. And you know, if if you're
set on getting them that you have to be prepared,
you know, to go in the seventh maybe the sixth round,
depending on on your league and what owners preferences are.
So you have to be prepared to do that. But
if you don't want to go the elite route and
(22:04):
then you want to go for kind of the next tier,
the brad Hands, the jose Le Clerics, Um, those guys.
There was a run in the picture list mock that
started in the tenth round where those guys went. Le
cleric Osuna Hand Chapman actually went in the tenth round. There.
(22:29):
I think you would still probably be considered by many
to be Um part of the top tier, but that's
not really how it happened in this one. And by
the way, A Glaciers went with the first pick in
the eleventh round, two picks after Lea Cleric. So maybe
if we restarted this mock, maybe look, um, I Glaciers
to go a little bit later. I personally would wait
(22:53):
a little longer on A Glaciers. Now, So if this
mock is indicative, and I think it probably is roughly,
that you would have to be prepared to go in
the tenth round, or maybe even in the eighth or
ninth round, be prepared to go after one of those
second tier closers, because once that tears gone, then there's
(23:14):
just a whole lot of uncertainty. You've got guys with
really good skill sets who won't even necessarily close or
maybe part of a tandem. So you're talking about maybe
a Corey Kinnable type who, if he's an everyday closer,
would be very valuable. But given how Craig Council operated
(23:36):
things this year, there's really no reason to think that
enables going to be a standard everyday type closer. Well
I mean not literally every day, but I did you
know I missed out on that run. I would have
liked to have gotten le Cleric or Hand or a
Felipe Vasquez who also went in that round, but I
missed out on it. I took Louis Castillo with my
(23:57):
tenth round pick, and I gotta say I don't regret it,
because if I had had to wait a couple more
rounds to fill that, I think what was my third
starter slot, then you know I'm was missing out on
some pretty good options. So I went two rounds later
and got Adam out of Vino, who has great skills
(24:20):
but may not close. You know, when I saw that
the Yankees were interested, it's like no, And I mean,
this isn't a real league, so I probably shouldn't have
worried about it. But you know, if I if I
had just drafted him for real, I would much rather
he go to the Mets than the Yankees. Among a
couple of teams that have expressed some interest in Ottavinos,
so that's what you're dealing with. Perhaps after the tenth
(24:42):
round or so, is you know somebody like that, like Ottavino,
or or like knebel Um, by the way, went in
the thirteenth round in this draft. Sir Anthony Domingus went
in the tht round, so it's really really tough. Uh,
And I just yeah, I guess the moral of the
story here is that if you don't, by let's say
(25:06):
the ninth or the tenth round, get somebody that looks
like a very certain target for saves, you might you
may may pay to wait a while because there's just
so much uncertainty and you don't know who's going to
be a closer and which teams are going to have
traditional closures and which aren't. So that's gonna be something
(25:28):
I have to I'm gonna have to figure out like
everybody else over the next two months, Gonna have to
figure out what's my strategy here. We're going after saves,
and I'm very tempted maybe to punt on saves in
drafts and auctions. But the thing is, I have a
feeling a lot of other owners are thinking the same thing,
and how does that change the calculus? So I've got
a couple of months to figure this out. Anyway, Speaking
(25:52):
of closers, and I did mention Kenley Jansen already h
he had the heart surgery that was a scheduled, so
that that's been done. Uh. He did uh an interview
with MLB Network where he talked a lot about the
details of UM, not so much of details of the
surgery itself, but what it means for him going forward.
He said he's expecting a two month recovery time. He
(26:15):
said his doctor says there's a chance that he's not
going to experience an irregular heartbeat ever again. But he
did leave that ten percent chance open there. That He
talked a lot about going to Course Field and going
to Colorado, UM, you know, and so when when the
Dodgers go there for the first time, that's gonna be
a test to see to see how Jansen responds. So
(26:39):
but chance it sounded extremely optimistic that he may just
be done with this heartbeat issue, which which would be great. UM.
He also talked about how when he did have the issues,
part of the problem is that he didn't sufficiently hydrate,
and so that's gonna be a key thing that Jansen
(27:01):
is going to focus on this year, is making sure
that he is well hydrated, uh, for for all the games.
So uh, some very very encouraging developments there. UH on
Kenley Jansen from Kenley Jansen and UH you know, I
would think that he's probably a good, good risk because
after last season, I think probably, you know, as a
(27:24):
as a group, we fancy owners maybe are are a
little more verse. That didn't play out in the that
way in the picture list mock. But maybe it's some
other drafts he'll drop a bit and maybe there's some
some bounce back potential there for for Kenley Jansen. Chris
Archer also just recently had surgery to repair a bilateral
hernia occurring. To stephen Nesbit of the Pittsburgh Post Post Gazette,
(27:49):
the recovery tired for Archer is expected to be about
six weeks, and so that should put him on schedule
to be ready for spring training and for opening Day.
If he's off, he shouldn't be off by much. So
some encouraging news there on Chris Archer. Also a Pirates
move serve a minor one uh. They signed Lonnie Chisenhall
(28:13):
to a one year deal worth two point seven five
million dollars. Part of the plan for chisen Halls that
Hill start the year as a full time replacement for
Gregory Polanco, who will still be recovering from shoulder surgery.
But once Polanco is ready to return. Chisen Hall will
m probably still see some some semi regular playing time,
(28:34):
be a fourth outfielder type, but maybe with a bit
more playing time than a typical fourth fourth outfielder, you say.
Cakuchie is now scheduled to be posted on December five.
H seven year old lefty from Japan talked about before
on the show, but that posting now due to happen
(28:56):
on December five, so that coming up very very soon.
Generally projected to be number three, number four type starter,
So somebody who certainly would be drafted in twelve team
mixed leagues, but the hype level here is certainly, you know,
not Otani or Darvish level, to be sure. The Twins
(29:18):
picked up CJ. Crone awful waivers, and just prior to
this time last week, Crone was d f AD and
a really kind of shocking move by the Rays. Crown
d f AD picked up awful waivers by the Twins.
Crone's role not totally clear at this point. Uh, maybe
could see every day or close to every day. It bats,
(29:41):
maybe split in time between first base and d H
where there are some needs, but there's still Tyler Austin
there and it's not really clear how they would split time.
Also not clear what other moves the twins might make,
But if Crown does play pretty regularly, there's some real
potential here for this to be a good for him.
(30:01):
I broke out last year or this never, don't know
what to do in December last year or this year.
Still this year, technically c J. Crome broke out with
thirty home runs, but only eleven those were hit at
the Trap UH and again one of the more picture
friendly parks, certainly the A L. East, but even in
(30:22):
the A L as a whole, and he had a
sixty point to home run to fly ball ratio at
the Trap. Now he had eight home runs, so eleven
of his thirty home runs in Tampa Bay, another eight
in the other A L. East parks, and there he had.
In those four parks combined, he had a twenty five
(30:44):
point eight percent home run to fly ball ratio, so
more than fifty percent higher than his home run to
fly ball ratio at the Trap and Target Field should
be an upgrade for home runs visa the Tropicana Field
should be UH. This past year for whatever reason, just
because park factors are variable and a little flukey, the
(31:09):
part the home run park factors varieties was not as
high as it had been the couple of years previously
a target field, so I'm, you know, can't that could
be a climate or you know, who knows what, um,
But so it's hard to say if target field becomes
that kind of park over the longer term. It's really
(31:29):
not that much of an upgrade for right handed hitters.
But at least there's there's a potential if you look
longer term at what park factor has been their target field,
there's some potential for c J. Crone to to build
on that breakout that he had in uh Jesse. Chavez
has an agreement on a two year deal to go
back to the Rangers. He started off with the Rangers,
(31:51):
then went to the Cubs where he just blew up.
It was fantastic. Um. So, the two year deal cared
to Jeff Passon of Yahoo Sports is in the eight
in dollar range between this time with the Rangers and Cubs.
This past season, Chaves put up at two fifty five
r a a one point zero six whip, got five wins,
five saves, nine two strikeouts. That's over ninety five and
(32:15):
a third innings, So not quite a strikeout per inning,
but pitched so many innings that he really wound up
helping out with strikeouts, and that combination made Jesse Chavez
the twenty second most valuable reliever in terms of Rhodor
value according to the ESPN Player Raider. So I think
it's it's a bit of a long shot for Chavez now,
(32:39):
even just assuming that he stays in a relief role,
it's a little bit of a long shot to assume
that he would be a top twenty four reliever again
in but you know, a nice skill set there, not
like a big, big time strikeout rape picture. But if
he racks up a lot of innings, he's got good control. Uh.
(33:01):
Last season made some advances in terms of how many
chases he got on auto his own pitches. You know,
if he can come close to maintaining that, he should
have some value one way or another. And there is
the possibility that the Rangers just move them back into
a starting role, put him in the rotation. They certainly
could use him there, but it remains to be seen.
(33:22):
So sort of like with Rice cell Glaciers, very intriguing
situation there in terms of how the Rangers u Shavis
I mean, it's not even I don't think he would close.
There's no reason to replace jose Le Cleric as a closer,
and I haven't heard anything about him being a trade
chip um, although I think that would make some sense
for the Rangers perhaps, but it'll be interesting to see
(33:45):
what they do with Jesse Chavas there. Both the Brewers
and the Phillies are among the teams that have had
some preliminary discussions with the Giants about a potential massive
bum Gardner deal that according to John Morossy, as published
on MLB dot com, now, Matt Bomb did have a
three point to six e r A last year. He
made one starts, but the peripherals all really went south.
(34:09):
He had just a nineteen point eight percent strikeout rate,
a seven point eight percent walk rate, both very uncare
characteristically mediocre for bum Garner, and a forty two percent
hard contact rate, which is just playing not good. And uh,
you know, it remained to be seen if if he
(34:31):
can rebound after admit. I was surprised to see that
bum Garner is still just twenty nine years old, So
if there's anybody who would be poised to to bounce back,
it could be bum Garner despite the injuries and all
the endings that he's put on his arm. But anyway,
(34:51):
so Brewis and Phillies interested in trading for him, and
there have been some preliminary discussions the Mets. According to
Andy Martinez of s n Y dot TV, That's have
been aggressive in their pursuit of Robinson Canoe. I have
to say that's a little bit of a head scratcher
for a team that's got Jeff McNeil, But that's that's
(35:14):
the word. And Cano would if you did go to
the Metsy be going from one picture friendly park to
another in city Field and Canoe numbers other than one
season in Seattle, they were certainly, as far as power goes,
a notch below what they had been when he was
a Yankee, but still very much somebody who can hit
(35:36):
to uh and be a run producer. So it's really
just the power numbers that have that have fallen for
Robinson Canoe and uh, finally here uh Tigers making a
move to add some rotation depth. They picked up Matt
Moore signed him to a one year deal. That's somewhere well,
(35:58):
actually they have not signed him. They have agreed to
sign him to a one year deal worth somewhere between
two and three million dollars. Calling to Jeff Passon, Uh,
that is pending physical still, but Tigers, assuming that that
goes through, Tigers would use Matt Moore as a starter
and granted on the one hand, uh, you know they
(36:18):
could use the depth. They could you know, certainly use
another arm in the uh, in the rotation. But more
was considerably better out of the bullpen after he was
demoted there last season with the Rangers, and as a
reliever he tossed four six endings. He struck out forty
five batters, walk fifteen, which for Matt Moore is actually
(36:40):
a pretty good ratio. But the real problem it's a
big one stings. He gave up eleven home runs and
I'd be going to a much better venue in Comerica Park. Uh,
so maybe that's a good spot for him. Uh. But
again in that relief roll, just a lot of two
thirty four batting average as a starter, the batting average
(37:01):
against was well over three hundred. I mean, he was
just miserable as a starter last year for the Rangers.
So maybe the maybe the Tires could figure something out
again more like bum Garner just twenty nine years old.
Look like when he went to the Giants, maybe he
was on the verge of of kind of turning things around.
But um, you know he's gonna be something I think
of a of a project for for the Tigers. But anyways,
(37:24):
that pretty much puts a bow on all of the
major moves that have happened since, uh, since the last
time I was here. But I will be back next
week with another episode, and that will be the last
one before the Winter Meetings, and for the first time
I'll actually attending to Winter meetings. So looking forward to
(37:44):
sharing what I what I see in here at the
Winter meetings. But really cool that that is, um, that's
uh on the precipice of happening here uh this Winter meetings.
So always be back next week. But until then, I
will be back next week to call the latest and
(38:07):
U have a good one. Everybody enjoy this uh hot
stove season. Let's start to get underway. Take care, m
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