June 17, 2019 • 49 mins
Vital information for Chris Paddack owners as Special Guest Michael Paddack discusses his brother, Chris Paddack's mindset and how long he will spend in Single A. Mike has an uncontrollable laughing fit as the guys discuss waiver wire adds. All this and more.
Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast, and remember, if you
want to listen live, download the I Heart Radio app,
download the tune and app and just search for Fantasy
Sports Radio Network and you could listen to this program live. Also,
if you want to watch the video of this podcast,
check us out on YouTube, on twitch, or on Periscoope
(00:21):
and type in you guess d Fantasy Sports Network. You'll
find us there. Enjoy the show and thanks for listening, ladies,
and to the Fantasy Baseball Breaking newsks and what's up everybody.
Welcome the Fantasy Baseball Hour Match Striker Mike the Rhodo Cop.
(00:42):
And this is one of those moments that like they'll
make a movie of it. I'm coming up the stairs
here in the studio, Mike kids mes like we have
breaking news, and he opens up his laptime the camera
straight out. You hit me like in a movie, like
I tell you Mark Wahlberg is gonna play one of us.
But you're like, yell for Chris. Chris Paddock sent down
to single A looked at you and I know his
last three starts have been like subpar, But then you
(01:04):
tell me it's for preservation and because she's a friend
of the show. You're telling me we have we can
reach out to his brother Michael as his manager and
talk to him about it. Yeah, so Mike's a friend
of the show. He um, he said, Oh, come on,
we'll give him a call now, just to figure out
everything that's going on with Chris. I know a lot
of people are speculating a lot of things, So hopefully
Mike could give us a clearer picture of what's going on.
(01:27):
I hope, he answers, Well, it's a crazy day. Hello, hey, Mike,
how you doing, man? Do you hear me? Yeah? What's up? Man? Yeah,
it's Matt from Matt Striker from Matt and Mike. Yes, sir,
what's going on? Hey? Man? Have you been Mike? You
You and Mike were talking a little bit earlier. Yeah,
well he texted me a little earlier and then uh said,
you guys were texting help on the show. So um,
(01:49):
happy to hear from you. Man, it's been too long.
That's bigger. We missed you. I missed you when you
came through. But listen, I wanted to play some golf
in New York. But that's another story. Well, we'll talk
about Chris. So yeah, my kids, whether the weather wasn't
that great that weekend anyway, so we'll have to catch
a better and better day that it was not meant
to be. So, so Mike hits me as I come
up the stairs here in the studio. He's like, yeah,
He's like, you know, they send Chris down and it's
(02:12):
it's this is for preservation, right, This isn't for any
other reason other than that. Is that correct? Yeah? This
is Uh, this was a predetermined um move that they had.
I think they were kind of wanting to see how
the season played out to know exactly what week they
were gonna do it. But they were They were playing
on this all along, and we knew all along too.
(02:33):
It's just, uh, it's never good to hear. And he
wasn't too happy to hear when they told him, but
he knows it's for his own interest, and um, you
know he'll be fine. When did they tell him? I
believe they told him last night, late last night. Um,
that's that's when I got the text. So um he uh.
He didn't give me too many details because he was
(02:54):
pretty frustrated, but um, I think everything's gonna be good.
He got some more information today and realized that it
wasn't performance based or anything like that. So yeah, definitely
not performance space, that's for sure. Um, this was, like
you said, something that everyone really discussed behind the scenes,
and even in the fantasy world that we're in, that
Paddock might not see the innings that you're gonna want
an ace to see or whatever it is, even though
(03:15):
he is still pitching like an ace. He could stay
down up to twenty days before it affects his service time,
So I'm assuming he'll be back up soon. That will
be in play as far as I know. Um, it's
the padres, it's it's a j pelor so you never know. Um,
he's uh, he's got some method to his chaos. But
now I was told that, uh this, you know, no
(03:37):
matter what happens this year, with all the moves they're
gonna make up and down or whatever they end up doing,
he is not going to lose a year of service time.
So um, that being said, you know, he's got what
seventeen days or twenty days? I think, and uh I think,
uh first first ballpark number I heard for this, this
little trip down is gonna be like ten days maybe, Uh,
(03:59):
I don't even know. They're just trying to get him
some extend address. Let's get the start more or less. So, um,
he'll be fine. He's he's a competitor man, and I
think he was frustrating the fact that he feels like
he's letting his team down, not giving him a chance
to go out there and compete and win. But um,
maybe need him to pist for team he was after
two months. So there you go. That that that's you know,
you hit it on the head. And I like when
(04:20):
we have these kind of discussions because instead of looking
at this situation in a negative, what I've been thinking
this whole time that you're talking is I can't wait
to see Chris come back. Can you imagine him like
as beast, like just his full potential. So it's almost
exciting that there's this opportunity for what I thought to
be great to get even better. Yeah, I can't. I
(04:41):
agree with you on that. I understand. And that's that's
one thing that you know, it kind of goes overlooked.
Not too many people talk about it a whole lot
with Chris, but his entire career, professional career, ever since
he's been drafted, he's uh, he's had some sort of
harness on him some sort of in his limit or
a pittil limit or something, and I just I'm look
forward to the future, you know, maybe another year, eighteen
(05:02):
months from now, when he will literally have nothing on
him that his hand in the ball every fifth day,
and think we'll get us win for him. For the
mind of the mentality of a picture to go out
there with no restrictions and nothing holding you back and
know when you can go out there and give it
your all and not have to worry about coming out
in the fifth inning or sixth inning or ninety pitches
or that's gonna be so much, so much better for him,
and I look forward to it. But for now, we'll
(05:24):
we'll deal with what he's got to do with and
and continue to work. So yeah, that seems ideal. Like
you said, the scenario eighteen months from now or whatever
it is, um real quick, I just want to clarify.
And if you don't have the answer, I totally understand
he won't be pitching in the minor leagues. Correct why? Honestly,
I don't have the answer to that, but I would
still hoping not kind of defeat the purpose because one
(05:47):
of the guys I would assume no, Yeah, but they might,
they might give him. You know, I wouldn't be surprised.
I have honestly have. I'm speculating. I have no idea.
I haven't heard anything, but for him to go out
maybe in five or six US and throw them one
or two intings that won't surprise me, just to kind
of keep him in game rhythm. Um, but I'd seriously
doubt you're gonna see him throwing ninny pitches and and
(06:09):
high Yeah, absolutely so. So regardless, then the spirits are
high amongst amongst the camp, right we as as friends
of the camp. There's nothing to worry about, and a
better Chris Paddock is coming. You agree with that? I
I agree the best is yet to come. Man. I've
got zero percent to do with mental issue, zero percent
(06:30):
with arm issue. A matter of fact, he told me
yesterday before start his arms felt has felt better this
past way he than never has an entire career. So, uh,
it's getting stronger. He's still coming back from that t
J surgery. So you know, the further the further we
get away from that, the better his arm is gonna
grow and get, you know, get stronger and feel better.
So he's good. Um, he's in good spirits. I think
(06:52):
he's you know, like I said, he's just he feels
like he's letting his team down. Um that's just a
competitive who he is. But he he understands he needs
to be there to help them throughout the whole year
rather than I'm shutting them down in August earlier August.
So he's good to go, man, And I appreciate I've
had so many people reach out and show support and
wish him well and I can't wait to see him
back and those sorts of things. And that's that's really
(07:14):
cool man. It's really it's really uplifting and awesome to see.
But uh, yeah, he's good to go, man. Nothing to
worry about. Nice Iron shopperings Iron my friend, and we
know that you have a busy days. We just want
to reach out. We want to say what's up, and
thanks for clarifying everything. It's it's always good to talk
to you, and uh we'll talk to you again. All right. Hey, guys,
take it easy and uh, I think just keep your
counters open. But I think they have a stretch in
(07:37):
a city field or Shasee Stadium or the until now
at the met at the weekend of the All Star break.
So assuming he's back then and and all of that
Peter Alonzo stuff that's going on, I hope he gets
the throws in and so I'll hit you up and
we'll be able to play some golf. You know. I
wasn't gonna say anything, but there's a lot of Pete
Alonso gifts calling on Twitter right now. But I'm sure,
oh god, yeah, I can only imagine. I I I've
(08:00):
been hit up with a lot of people saying, yeah,
that's this, and that it's good. It's good stuff. I
hope he gets to throw. I hope he gets to
throw that. That serious, but we'll see what happens. I
appreciate it, man, Thanks a lot day. That was some
That was a big step for the Fantasy Baseball Hour
right there. You know, a few a few things to
(08:21):
analyze and break down or unpack as they say, off
of that first and foremost, it's amazing the time we
live in that that breaking Like where else you're gonna
get as close to a statement about the feelings and
emotions of this player other than the player himself, than
than to his brother and you you were able to
pull that off. We had more time. I would like
(08:43):
to get Chris on the show, but yeah, I just
don't think that. Also feel that there's a there's a
can you retweet the Paris home doing the things at
all the kids trying to different things. Yeah, I know
you're the You're the man. Trust me. We appreciate you.
You do, you serve your purpose. You are a pillar.
If this is a tripod and Joe and me and you,
(09:06):
You're Mike's essential, your essential. This is a nice little
team here. I am sawing Michaels to your Marty Genetti.
That's that's what I mean. I do. I like it.
I also wanted to tag my boys ras Ball. I
don't we have breaking news, but checking me out, dude.
I have a T shirt and I'm more excited to
have have this that I always have, like a wrestling
T shirt in a long time. You have your your
Bullet Club shirts that I'm doing a raz Ball T shirt?
(09:27):
What are you doing? What are you falling off the
chair now? I'm leaning over so that you mean it's
better than your useful? You know the converse. I own
shares in Chris Paddock across the board, but I'm not
dropping him. Do you advise the listener to drop Paddock,
depending I guess on your league situation. No, I don't
(09:49):
think you could drop him at this point, even though
it is a bit concerning because this tick come earlier
than expected, and for people that have been listening to
the show consistently, we were saying before the season and
even during a stretch in the beginning, there's gonna be
a point where Chris Paddock might not be as valuable
in head to head league as opposed to rotists. League's
gonna head to head league. He's not gonna be there
for you in the playoffs, right, So that was something
(10:10):
that we're concerned about, but I didn't think it would
happen this soon. I mean today's June twelve. I think
that's a little bit forward to send him down to
the minors on June twelve. But these guys got paid
for this, they know what they're doing. So as far
as paddocks, I would not drop him, and I would
hold on to him. It kind of sucks because you
can't even sell high on him right now because nobody's
(10:30):
gonna give you what he's actually worth at this point.
So you're kind of in a in a place where
you're stuck with him. Okay, but you know something, there's
worst guys to do exactly, there's worse guys to be
stuck with. But for now, I just hold all the
paddock shares you have and just take it from there.
But this is this is cool. This is cool that
might came on. This was cool to uh to be
able to do this. We also got a couple of
(10:52):
pictureless guys coming on the show, Dan McNamara and Nick Durley. Um,
I want to do current events. I know, I don't
think we're gonna have time for We got Waiver Wire
adds a little bit of DFS. You want to do
current events? You want to just skip right over, Joe,
What do you got for us for current events? We
got Kevin Durant in the NBA Finals. Kevin Durant, Yeah,
man Achilles, did you watch? Yeah? I saw they showed
(11:13):
like the thing or whatever it was. I know that
that injury forced Edge out for a long time. Yeah,
for I want to say, almost nine months, supposed to
be longer. But he has great recrupitative powers, does he
had them? But yeah, so that's that's it's a blow.
But I go back to the fact that the Warriors
have won without him, like he's he's a new piece
(11:35):
there essentially if you think about it, as long as
that core stays and I still think they're gonna win.
We both said Warriors in the six when it post started, right, Okay,
so yeah seven, you said Warriors in six. We both
said Warries and maybe seven. We wouldn't. Uh, it wouldn't
be the worst thing in the world. We wouldn't be
that far off, I should say, if it was Warriors
and seven. So that's one thing Blues Bruins tonight, right,
(11:58):
that's when it's excellent. List. Yes, sir, sorry for stealing
it from there, No problem, Loues Bruins Game seven up
in Boston. You're the hockey guy, you know. I mean,
I grew up playing hockey, That's all I am. So
oh I didn't hear you, right, dude, You don't have
to come to me like that. Yeah, man, I was.
I tweeted out a picture Doug Gilmore in a picture
of Cam Neely. You have to go back to like
but in nine and remember how these teams were were viewed.
(12:21):
I always like to St. Louis Blues because I like
to St. Louis Cardinals. It'll be nice for that city
to to have that, and if you really want to
go there, you can think about that. In the past,
like five summers, that area of Missouri has really been
kind of in battled, Like you know, if Ferguson isn't
too far away from there, and there's only there's been flooding,
there's just been all kinds of stuff. So it would
(12:42):
be nice for that city. But the Bruins, on their hand,
have players that I root for, you know, I want
to see this guy raised. Of course you have to
root for Ena, but I mean some of them have
had the opportunity to throw the cup up already once
sou Boston Boston and Boston Boston always wins. Speaking of Boston,
real bad news out of the Dominican Republic. David Ortiz, Yes,
(13:06):
is a big deal. That's what you wrote next to
the now. But what's the deal is it was in
an assassination attempt for eight thousand dollars is not really true? Seven.
The rumors are rampant on the internet. From from the
sources I took a look at it says that he
was allegedly with a drug lord's wife and that the
person who called this assassination attempt was a top Really
(13:29):
he was the trigger man. Oh, I didn't hear that part.
I know seven guys were involved in the six of
them have been arrested so far, but seven guys are
getting paid eight grand total, the little thousand dollars each
for each guy. So that doesn't make more sense to
me that you would. That kind of also falls into
the forget the political things aside, and some of the
accusations on that guy from that show Empire that he
(13:49):
paid to Nigerian guys like beat him up to what
I'm saying he paid them, Like I think the number
was also a number where like seven thousand each where
kind of like normal kind of people go, huh, are
you gonna do that for that crazy ships going on
in the d R right now because these people are
drinking the water from the bar and dying and all this.
I don't know if you keep up with that. Yeah,
(14:11):
it was a bunch of crazy. So that what happens
when I don't pay attention. So let's get back on track.
We got Kimbrill and Kaiko again second week in a row.
Kimberll to the Cubs, Kaiko to the Braves. They didn't sign.
If I'm not mistaken on last week before last week show,
did they think? Okay? So Kimbell goes to the Cubs,
Kiku to the Braves. Obviously this is a played out
(14:33):
conversation by now, but you got to mention it on
a show like this. Steamer has these two projections with me.
I'm listening. That was Kaiko? A hundred four innings three
point six three is a Steamer projection? You okay? With
that three point six three r um? I would I
would want to have a lower You are right? Do
you think you have over your want him to? Okay?
(14:54):
How many wins is he projected for I don't know.
If I didn't write that down, I think it might
have been seven. If I'm not miss taken, I could
pull that up for you. If you want third of
the season gone, I want to one games. No Steamer
has been that seven wins. I was right, seventeen games, okay, okay,
go ahead? And what was the other things for Kurt
(15:15):
kimberl Eighteen saves and a two point eight seventy year right,
Really it was a little high for Kimberley, all right,
But regardless of impressives eighteen saves, eighteen saves over let
me see how many innings it has some slot of
at six thirty two winnings, eighteen saves appears in thirty
(15:36):
two games, thirty two winnings and thirty two games. I
could see it in case per nine they have it
at thirteen point eight seven walks per nine is almost
at a four. See it's crazy because two years ago
and two down seventeen is walk great was a one
point eight three, and then last year was a four
point four. So who knows where the walks are gonna
because the year before that it was a five point
(15:56):
on nine. So obviously you would you would play the
ladder and think, uh, the walks are going to be
closer to that four point four eight from last year.
But you can turn around and look at Edmund as
vand has had that walk crazy wall create one year
and then the next year you know in seing the
wal grate so and that that translated into better numbers
all across the board. So I think, uh, I'm expecting
a little bit more from Kimbero. No. Yeah, And I
(16:19):
think that it helps the Cubs, it bolsters them and
makes they were fading away. You know Strup was not
gonna do it, and and things of this nature. But
now they're starting to hit, and then they're still a
good baseball team. I think they also could use another start,
another arm, but yeah, Kimball definitely makes them formidable. And
one thing that I didn't put on the list for Ardia,
(16:40):
you're don Elarez was called up over the week now
where we were away from the studio, you on him
and hest in my main three dream already six minutes too.
And we'll get this guy in the show because he
used to do a show with Lenny Melnick and he
runs a cool a couple of good only leagues al
only and only he used to rest was Antonio Thomas
(17:01):
and w W part of the Heartbreakers now he wrestlers
is Thomas Santel. I want to say, I gotta look
a toy. His name is Tom He's he's a great guy.
He's a great baseball guy. Would love to have him
on the show. Tonio Thomas a good follow too. If
you can pull up his social media, He's a good follow.
He does a cool gimmick. He's almost a Marty McFly
of professional wrestling. He looks like William Regal. But you
(17:23):
know what I mean, Like he's very hollo, but he's
a great like amateur you know, good type of vanilla
ice cream ma wrestler, and the people really get behind him.
I think he's doing stuff up in the in the Northeast,
I want to say, with companies like Beyond and stuff
like that. It's pretty cool when you see a friend succeeding.
You have him up on your social I have him
up on Wikipedia. What was his wrestling name in WW
(17:45):
Antonio Thomas Thomas. Thomas doesn't sound too familiar to me.
Usually I know all the wrestlers, you know, Yeah, usually
you know what I mean. Let some great radio here, buddy,
let me pull up his social media. I don't any
want to keep talking about your friends here, talk about
so he beat you to it? Yeah, so he beat
me to it by thirty six minutes. And I was
(18:06):
very upset by that and a couple of my other leagues.
I don't have any maneuver ability. I don't really have
anyone to drop, so I'm kind of like stuck and
I'm like whatever. But I have to admit, in the
last like three or four days, I've been neglecting my
teams all around. Yeah, because I know it's a long season.
I know, give me a few days in a waiver
wire and I can at least work some magic to
get in the money. Depending on how far off I've
(18:28):
let a team slip, do you ever do that? Dude?
You're like way too cocky about this. Do you ever
let a team slip? No? I would have a team slip. Um,
I want to talk to you a little bit about
why let a team slip? I want to talk, Well,
I don't know, because base was a long season and
you have innings. This is but I watch guys and
I'll see them they're are I'm making it up two
hundred points ahead of everybody, get their innings thing, and
(18:49):
they're under by a d eight. You do some quick
math and come like the last five days of the season,
he won't have any innings. And if I stay within
striking distance, I can just stream that at some pictures
and I win and like that. I know that. So
depending on how far out I am, like, that's why
baseball is long. I want to ask you. In football,
it's not the same way, is it. Football is a
completely different animal. Man? So, um, I what I did
(19:11):
is I made this bet with my friend Ryan, so
I do not Ryan. His name is Ryan Goldstein. He's
the president of a p Keaton. They're a marketing firm.
They're pretty cool. No, you know you don't like you.
Uh so, Um, what we're gonna do is we're gonna
try to He wants me to play my my fantasy
football leagues under his style because we play a totally
(19:35):
different style. So I wanted what is your style to
play like? You're on top of everything. You you work
a hard draft, You almost play like a best ball
in a way. As far as my strategy, you're asking
your season long coaching strategy. It's a little different in baseball,
where when guys are hot, you don't have to add
them because in football, as soon as that guy gets
(19:57):
the starting spot, or as soon as that guy does
something that's so crazy that he's going to get a
starting spot or whatever it is, you're getting a clothes
from one of the pictul those guys, Now, um, you
just gotta run to the wire. I think it's more
more um first come basis in football, unless you're playing
a league with waivers and everything else is involved. But
for the most part, I just try and get to
(20:17):
the wires fast I can and pick up whoever whoever
is the hot name. Right. So, so you you're working
a waiver where you're doing all these things, Now, do
you essentially like there's only like four or five guys
throughout the whole entire season that are really going to
make a difference for your team. So you've got to
almost pick up everyone as opposed to Jake Cardizi as
a one point nine seven year right, But I'm still
not picking him up and I'm kind available at this point.
(20:39):
But I know Jake Cordi is gonna fall off football.
It's not like that. Okay, Now, what about when you're drafting,
do you go RB RB? You go running back? Running back?
Like right away? What's your approach? Um A little bit cocky?
And my family football um football style. So I when
(20:59):
I was growing up, I always had to have Aaron
Rodgers on my team, had to otherwise I refused to
do it. Why just because I enjoyed watching play so much.
So I would take Rogers where he wasn't supposed to
be going, thinking to myself that I'm gonna not even
just to throw it off, just so that I had Rogers,
and I was good enough to surround him with the
right team to make the playoffs. So it's a little
(21:21):
bit cockiness on my point, but I mean, I'm planning
to do the same thing this year, Patrick Mahomes, So
you might see me take the homes in the second
round when he should go in the whatever the rankings say,
the third or fourth round, just so I could have
my homes and watch him every Sunday. Okay, So that
for you is how you play your fantasy game? Is
that so you can actually watch these guys like you
look at like baseball. Uh, I love guys that get hits.
(21:43):
And with Maryfield and two hundred hits and I'm gonna
draft Wit Maryfield, I'm not going to really watch two
two hundred and sixty two games of Wit Maryfield. You
like to actually physically be able to like watch your
guy and be Yeah, because Sundays is a little different.
Sundays just one day baseball. Like I watched a million
at Bets a week, a thousand that's a week. But
I'm switching from game to game to game. You have
Patrick Mahomes out there, It's like you get that fifteen
(22:06):
times throughout the game. Where what how many of her
drives they have? And you really focus in on those drives.
That's why I like doing it with especially quarterbacks. That's interesting.
So yeah, because you hear I know it's only Jarem,
but you hear like different people talking about different strategies
and things like that, And I'm with you. I would
not be offended if I wanted to grab a quarterback
and like I don't around three, around four Deshaun Watson
(22:28):
if everything, do you hate me and think I'm stupid
if in the fourth round of our draft I have
Deshaun Watson? Is that who you said? It was a
number one quarterback? Yes, okay, I was gonna guess that.
I I did a little bit of fantasy football research
and forever is listening out there to the fancy baseball.
This is, uh the first time we're talking about fantasy
football this season. It's a little bit earlier. No, I
don't know. I just I just wanted to start to
(22:49):
think and to pretend, well, we wait for to live
in a pretend world, pitcherless guys to call in. Um.
I was looking at some top tens and Watson was
the number two quarterback head of Roger is luck, Ryan Wentz,
new In Mayfield, Wilson Breeze. I would not take Cam
Newton over Baker Mayfield, that's for sure. I think Baker
Mayfield is gonna have a humongous season. As far as
(23:11):
the running backs status quo Barkley Elliott McCaffrey. A friend
of mine told me that bar is the if you
are thirty years and younger, Skwon Barkley is the greatest
and will be the greatest running back you will ever see.
Is that is he generational? That's a that's a good question.
(23:35):
Would I say he's generational? No? Why? I don't know.
I just feel like there's been been better running backs
over the course of my my lifetime. Is he better
than Oladainian Tomlinson? Or it hasn't been proven yet, it
hasn't improven yet. This is this is almost a a
projection apart prognostication. If you will, great player, don't get
(23:57):
me wrong. Probably the best player in football as far
as fantasy os. But I don't know if I would
call him the best running back ever at this point.
All right, he's only been around for a season. Talk
to me about your favorite team and how do you
think fantasy advice. They'll be valuable the Jets. I guess
Levy on Bell will be pretty valuable ranked running back. Okay,
(24:19):
I got him as eat here. Okay, I guess he'll
do Levy on Bell things. He got a year to
uh sit out. And what if the entire offensive scheme
is structured around him. I think it should be because
I'm not as high on Sam Donald as as most
people are. Donald is the twenty four of the top
of your head. Huh. I'm just saying, you know, I
(24:42):
just remember because I was having a conversation, so I
had to look it up. And then the next point's
gonna Bobby Grossman, I think the twenty seventh rank receiver.
So but what is that Robbie Grossman, the outfielder for
the I thought, like, you know what I'm talking about.
And on that note, hang on then alright, joining us
on the line. This is a street, my friend. We
are just taking corners and squares and working a four way. Here.
(25:03):
We have Dan McNamara and Nick Drelling, Nick Jerley, Sorry man,
guys from picture list, what's going on? What's going on?
Thanks for coming on the show, guys, I know, uh
we you guys discussed a lot of stuff in the
in the Picture List discord, so I wanted to have
you on and talk about the articles you wrote recently.
Sorry about the timing. We had Chris Paddocks brother Michael,
(25:24):
and I don't know, Dan said, you just got just
got in. Nick, you heard Chris got sent down to
the minor leagues. I know, I'm still I'm still grieving.
I'm still getting over it. So his brother says he's
fine and should be up before we know it. So
that's a good, uh good sign that there's nothing going
on behind the scenes. Let's start with Nick here in
the picture breakout forecasting picture breakouts with two strike rates.
(25:45):
So this is an artically wrote on picture list dot com.
For those who don't don't go on picture lists dot com,
you really should. It's a great, great way to get
fantasy insight, and Nick and Dan are always active on there,
as is Nick Pollock Alex asking a bunch of other
guys in the industry. So, Nick, tell us about this
article you wrote back in I think it was April twelve. Yeah,
I was in early April. And you know, basically the
(26:06):
old adage that the picture needs to pitch ahead, right,
That's that's one of the oldest truisms in baseball. Um,
but it's something that didn't really get a whole lot
of attention from the saber metrics revolution that's occurred over
the last five years. So, you know, to strike grade
was really my my attempt to quantify that. So it's
calculated as the percentage of pitches that a picture throws
(26:30):
and O to one, two into two counts and uh,
you know, a good measure of that is about thirty,
average is about and bad would be And you know
what I found in the article is that to strike
rate is actually just as robust as a stat like
swinging strike rate, which I was actually surprised about at first.
(26:53):
And uh, the additional thing about it is it it
actually has less random variants. You know, there's less random
start to start in month to month variance in a
stat like swinging strike ray. So that that really got
me intrigued, like, hey, I can I can use this
stat kind of to to get an edge on my
my fantasy competition and better understand how a picture really
(27:14):
attack attacks hitters. Yeah, so one of the things in
your article you actually, um, well what you did was
you put pictures to target based on your findings and
pictures to avoid based on your findings. And for the
most part, you did pretty well with this because in
the list of pictures to target you had Matt Boyd
and Lucas Giolito and the pictures to avoid you and
Nick Pavetta and Zach Wheeler. Obviously Pavetta got sent down.
(27:36):
Now he's back up, he's doing pretty decent. But Wheeler
struggled all a year. But I gotta I gotta call
you out on this. Also you have pictures to target
Adam Plucko and pictures to avoid Mike Minor So using
this stat the two strike percentage, why is it that
those guys ended up on those lists? Is that just
something that you gotta take take with a grain of salt, sure,
(27:56):
And look, this isn't a perfect science, right, uh, you know,
two strike grade, it's a it's a descriptive stats, so
kind of descritch what's happened, and it's it's a little
predictive in nature, but a picture can improve and to
strike rate, and that's that's actually what's exactly what Mike
Myers done over over the last four to five weeks.
So you know, really you know, my intention was his
(28:16):
stat with this stat was to kind of use it
in conjunction with other stats like swinging strike rate, to
really see if you can confirm a breakout. Um. You know,
an interesting case would be someone like Louise Castillo, where
he's a guy, especially three or four weeks ago, by
every metric imaginable, he looked amazing. Um you know, x
fit E r A, x wOBA, swinging strike rade, etcetera, etcetera. UM.
(28:40):
But the one stat that he didn't look great by
it was was too strike great. And so that doesn't
necessarily say Castillos all of a sudden gonna suck, but
it says, hey, he's pitching behind um batters a lot,
and he's relying on batters making mistakes rather than you know,
dictating the agenda to a hitter. I think it's maybe
(29:01):
more likely that he's going to have maybe a little
bit of a regression going forward. So that's that's kind
of really the way that that you should use it.
And I look at the two strike leaders now, and
on top of that list is Chris Paddock. You have
at a minimum seven fifty pitches here. The rest of
the guys, Jacob de graum Garrit called justin Merland there,
Max Scherzer, the guys that you think would be up
there up there, then you've got guys like Cabe Smith,
(29:23):
Geelito's eleven, Kershaw twelve, Granky fifteen, Ordo Rizzy sixteen. So
it's pretty indicative because all these guys are having great seasons,
especially guys like Ordo Rizzy who this this These findings
really back up what he's doing. I know U Matt
had a question about this. Yeah, I'm saying, how can
you capitalize on someone that you think is trending up
(29:46):
in this category? If a listener out there maybe wants
to put their eye on someone that isn't going to
be so widely owned, sure exactly, you know, And I
think what you want to do is, you know, you
can look at the year long findings, right, but you
can also look over the last month or the last
month and a half and see, Okay, which pictures are improving,
there's two strike great, and which ones have an absolute
(30:07):
level which which is pretty high. And the example I
want to point out maybe as Lucas Giolito. So through
April thirty of this year, you know, Geolito wasn't necessarily
doing great at a five three e r A and
his other estimators were okay, but all of a sudden,
it's too strike. Greate was up to twenty seven point
nine percent, which is in the nine plus percentile, and
his swinging strike rate was in the seventieth percentile. So
(30:29):
you say to yourself, those are both really big improvements. Um,
you know this is a guy I should target and
you know, too strike great. You won't necessarily allow you
to say, you know, forecast four months out all this
guy's going to break out, but it allow you to
get a jump basically on you know, a starter who's
really starting to peak. And you know, for me, Giolito
(30:50):
and I think Dan as well, we're WILLI pick him
up in all our leagues because we saw the two
strike great trends and we're like, as soon as he
had that one or two good stars were okay, let's
grab So that's that's kind of how you how you
use it. So then Dan takes it a step further
and he writes an article going deep expanding on the
application of two strike rate. And what you did, Dan,
(31:11):
was you basically compared with rates and two strike rates yeah. So, so,
I mean I was inspired by Nick's work obviously, and
you know, there were there were some outliers. I think,
I think it's it's pretty obvious there are some guys
at the top of that list, and especially in Nick's
article where he showed the sample of pictures from two
(31:32):
sixteen all the way through two eighteen. Uh, you know,
you had guys in the top ten like uh, like
Rick Porcello was. It was a glaring outlier in terms
of his overall results, in his output, and it was okay,
so what is it about Porcello that kind of makes
him different from these other guys who are pretty much
bona fide, you know, cy young contenders every single year.
(31:54):
And when I the first thing that me and Nick
thought of was, well, he just he doesn't get as
many whiffs, doesn't get as any strike outs. So that's
where we started. And you know, right there, that was
where you start to notice, Okay, so poor Cello not
only has that ability to get ahead, or he does
have the ability to get ahead, but he doesn't have
the ability to guys away. So that got me looking
(32:16):
into the actual to strike with realm and what I
found was that called third strikes almost never happened in
two strike counts. When you get a called third strike,
you're falling into a sample of about four per cent
of the time. So I wanted to put guys into
(32:37):
a vacuum to start really really comparing these pictures who
not only have either a good or bad ability to
get into two strike counts, but also how good are
they are they actually finishing the at bat on their
own And if you look at Nick's work with rate
actually stays fairly similar from your neutral counts in to
(33:00):
your two strike accounts, but then it goes way way
way down when you get in the hitter accounts. So
we're able to take these guys who get into two
strike acounts are very very effectively, and we're able to say, okay,
so these are the guys who when they get to
two strikes they either elevate their game or they stay
the same if they're already good, or you have guys
who are worse than what they should be and we
(33:22):
can expect regression, or we have guys who are just
that in general, and they're not only they're they're they're
they're getting ahead, but they're still relying on contact. So
it becomes this really really interesting um sort of you
know comparison where you can spot guys who are you know,
getting with but they're not putting guys away, or you
(33:42):
spot guys who are getting ahead but unable to actually
finish it fas like it's and it really just kind
of brings it full circle and it puts guys into
you know, a really really nice picture and the ability
to compare pictures at a deeper level than just Okay,
they're getting ahead, now let's see if they can actually
finish things off. Uh, speak to the Luis Castillo owner
(34:04):
out there listening, um, also speak to if you can
maybe a James Paxton owner. Can you somehow try to
apply these things? Yeah, So with Luis Castillo, I think
you know Nick already brought him up, and he's he's
a spectacular example of this because if you look at
his to strike whift rate, it's absolutely through the roof.
It's above, which is apt, which is mind bogglingly good.
(34:28):
So clearly when he's able to get you into account
where you are on the back foot, he is finishing
you almost half the time, which is which is amazing.
The problem, like Nick mentioned, is that he's not getting
into those counts enough for it to be super meaningful.
So if you dive into a guy like him, you'll
(34:49):
see that he's made such a drastic change in his
approach that he's just almost non existent in terms of
his own rate. He's in the zone a league worst
thirty eight percent of the time at the moment. And
what I think that kind of speaks to is the
fact that hitters have something that they can very very
easily adjust to, because if you look at him count
(35:10):
by count, he just doesn't want to come into the zone.
Why does he not want to come into the zone.
I'm not sure. It could be just because last year
was a year that didn't go quite his way, so
he decided to start a voting bats more and more often.
But nonetheless, he's kind of leaving himself vulnerable to either
putting guys on base, which he's doing a lot. You
(35:30):
see he ranks in the top ten of walker, or
he's putting himself in positions where if he does come
into the zone, hitters can be more selective about the
pitches they are swinging at. So you you have to
give him credit because he does have an absolutely amazing changeup,
you do recognize that he may be fooling hitters. It
may look super enticing, but at the same time, if
(35:52):
hitters just take into account his tendencies of being outside
the zone, they might just start, you know, spitting on
that one open it's bitten on that O pitch and
just seeing if they could get ahead. Um. And at
that point you just you take him out of the
driver's seat and you forced him to come challenge you.
Now then, and in terms of like a practical recommendation, UM,
(36:13):
I'm pretty unabashed if if you have someone willing to
pay you value who's value in Castile, like a top
ten pitcher, top five picture trade. And it's like Dan saying,
he's basically walking in a high wire act right now,
Scouting reports, saber metrics teams are gonna eventually start queuing
to the fact that, hey, when I get to a
two oh account against Castillo, I don't need to swing.
(36:34):
He's going out of the zone with a change up,
and uh, you know, he just leaves himself exposed to
that type of adjustment. Here's something for your nick. Would
you trade Luis Castile for Trevor Bauer right now? You know,
that's a that's an interesting one. I would say yes,
And to be honest, I don't quite know why Bowers
um scuttled here, but I trust Bowers, you know, obviously
(36:59):
in tuition and mechanics and technological advancement, UM, that he
can figure it out. UM. I think Castillo is really talented,
probably the top for sure, UM. But I like Bauer
long term more. You know. I read something that I
think Rob Silver tweeted. If I'm not mistaken, he said,
if you took everything about Bower that we know and
(37:20):
put it aside, put aside his work ethic, put aside
all the training videos, put aside all the advanced analytics
and everything else, and he was doing what he was
doing right now, would anyone have the kind of hope
for him that everybody does have. So that was an
interesting tweet. Uh. We're here with Dan McNamara at Danny
hot Takes on Twitter, Nick Jarley, and I'm pronounced all right,
Nick Churley, You got it, yeah, Nick Jurley at Nick
(37:41):
Jorley p l for picture List at picture list dot com.
You can read all their stuff before we wrap up here. Dan,
at the end of your article, you spoke a little
bit about CSW, which is alex fast is baby uh
called swing? Uh? What's the c s W stand for?
Cold strike as called strikes plus whips? Okay, clause strikes plus.
(38:04):
So you talked a little bit about how that ties
into this whole two strike and two strike grade and
two strike with Yeah. So I think Nick again mentioned
this earlier, No once that is perfect. You've gotta make
sure you're using these things in conjunction. It's why I
wrote my article to add to the two strike realm
and how we can let these stats play off one another.
(38:25):
That you don't you don't want to forget about CSW
because it plays a very very important role in just
letting you know how good a picture is at getting
what I would refer to as contact list strikes, so
called strikes at with right. So how good are they
generally at avoiding bats? Because in my opinion, if you
have somebody who is very very high in CSW and
(38:48):
has demonstrated an ability to either get balls past the
hitter or full a hitter on a swing, then that
tells me that even if they do have a very
very low to strike rate, they probably have the ability
to get up very quickly into a higher two strike rate,
because it demonstrates me that they have good command, they
(39:09):
have consistent command. And if you look at somebody, uh
that was highlighted in Nick's article, which was Herman Marquez,
He's a guy who seems to kind of fluctuate between that,
you know, mid twenties uh to strike rate. But then
if he jumps up to seven, he becomes an absolutely
elite ace. So you need to be willing to look
(39:31):
at c SW recognize when guys are just pure good
strike getters, and then if they are good at that,
have a little bit of encouragement that you could at
least see some sort of a rise in their two
strike rate if they're sort of floundering and that sort
of realm of mediocrity in the two strike realm. Yeah, definitely, Nick.
Before we let you guys go here, what's next in
(39:52):
your in your research or in your findings. Are you
working on anything related to this? Sure? You know, I
like to keep things fresh. I actually just rode an
art goal last week for picture lists on pulled flyballs. Um,
you know, obviously over the last three years of flyball revolution,
everyone loves fly ball, especially pulled flyballs, shortest way to
get a home run. Um. It's kind of the point
(40:12):
though we're in fantasy analysis, we just kind of blindly
look at pulled flyballs is a good thing, and uh,
you know, what I realized in the article and doing
my research is that there's really no relationship between pulling
flyballs and increasing overall offensive production. Uh. You know, there's
a lot of different variables that go into that, and
typically when you pull more flyballs, um, you know, you
end up hitting more pop ups and less line drives
(40:34):
and striking out more. So. UM, you know, it's it's
kind of a complicated equation, and so I kind of
want to do more in that area of research. They'll
probably a follow up article in the next couple of weeks. Awesome, Dan,
how about you. Yeah, I'm actually I'm doing a couple
of you know, individual player deep dives. UM. I've been
very fascinated by the out by the breakout at obviously
(40:56):
Garcia this week, so I'm currently working so I'm currently
working on a going deep for that. Um, but I'm
also continuing to kind of dive into the two strike
realm and I'm doing it a little bit on the
hitter side as well. I'm very, very fascinated by Joey
Gallows breakout, and if you look at and if you
look at one of the significant changes that he's done,
(41:17):
he's actually being patient to the point that he's putting
himself into the top tier of hitters on a two
strike basis, in other words, being in two strike counts
the least amount of time compared to when he was
in the bottom over the last three seasons. So I
think that that is something that could be very very
interesting to look into as well, see if we can
(41:38):
take two strikes away from just starting pitching and apply
it to hitting as well. Uh So that's going to
be something that I look into down the line as well.
Nice to be continued. So much information. That's what I love.
I love and guests come on and they're just like
provoke thought and that's what I like. Thanks guys, We
really appreciate it. We'll have you back on and we'll
talk some more. Okay, okay, very much, guys. Thanks math,
Thanks like you. Gotta appreciate it. My good stuff. I
(42:00):
it's it's thought provoking. It really puts you in a
place that you start to look at your teams and
your players and your leagues differently, and then you start
to especially now right June, you start making some trade
offers that interrupting the Paris cope. Froze here, froze. That's
not a good thing. Keep going, you start making trade
off and keep going. You start to make trade offers
(42:25):
that you're actually okay with because you have the analytics
behind them, you have a little more confidence. Most times,
when I'm tinkering with a trade, I'm like, God, do
I really want to give you drinkers? And profile is
so much position. But then if I can look at
some you know, metrics and go, you know what, man,
I'm telling I'm gonna look back in three weeks. Friend
of mine has had a chance. He was asking me
if he should trade Ken Giles. I trade him train
(42:46):
into the trainers and not and Giles goes on the
I l and I texted otego, yeah, did you do that,
Giles dearly as I Yes, I did so. I mean,
you have to look at these things, because that's to me,
how you you excel my friend. No, definitely, the show
is all over the place today with the spatic dudes.
Hey listen, we're journalists now. I don't know what's going on.
One of us is a journalist. Now, um so another
(43:06):
way that you one of us has always been a journalist.
I've been far all right. I wanted to talk about
some quick Waiver Wire adds a lot of times I'll
get an email from fantasy pros. Do you get that email?
I do get that. Email's pretty cool. What do you
think about what some of the picks are. I think
they're great fantasy pros. Michael Waterloo, who is the guest
(43:27):
on our on our show, is being in fantasy pros.
There's a couple of other people that I follow that,
uh really are a big part of what they do.
What email you're talking about, specifically, the fantasy prose gives
you that, Like week a levin waiver Wire picked up
this guy, that guy, that guy, this guy segue into
my waiver Wire pretty much. That's how that went. Nice.
(43:48):
So Michael Paddock was this is what happens. Is what
happens when you let Mike Steer and the train ladies
and gentlemen. I gave me. I gave it late things
with Peter look different. Man, so got to be a pro. Alright.
In any event, waiver Wire ads and this is interesting
because this is where we get not even We're not
even in the dog days yet. We're just in early June. Man,
(44:09):
we're not even at also, but the first third of
the season has gone by, so now you really start
to feel it a little more. You feel a pinch um.
How are your wire skills thus far? I'm sorry that
made me laugh? Made you laugh? Feel a pinch line.
So for a first during this waiver wire as segments, Okay,
I got nothing Joe done the first time? Or here
(44:33):
on I said go pick up Kevin Kermeyer, he was
fourteen percent oled. Since then, he's hitting two ninet two
with three homers, ten r bis and two stolen maces
three seven over the last week. Now, what is it?
What is he up to? Old? Okay? Why so little?
I don't know. I think people sleep on him. But
a lot of times, you know, if you need, if
(44:55):
I need you to tell me to go get Kevin
Kermeyer like something's not eight percent of Yahoo players do
so is this opens up a bigger discussion? How many
what percentage of Yahoo players are paying attention? Are players
that you would respect if you were in a league
with them? What do you think Yahoo? Even more for
fantasy football is the league that everyone just goes to,
(45:16):
makes their team and doesn't look at I think it's
more kind of I think it's more of a standard,
want to have fun type of thing as opposed to
the guys who are really looking at analytics. And so,
which sites do you feel that you found have a
population that are more analytical and you want to play
with the big ones? You play n f PC, You
probably inn f FC. You put your money where I'm
(45:38):
out is honestly, the more money, the more serious it
is going to be, the more research is gonna play
on fan tracks league, and and you can tell it's
just far different just when you go and you visit
the waiver wire and you're just like, oh, look there's
no one here. Yeah, well, most people playing fan tracks
are pretty avid fantasy sports players for sure. All Right,
who's some other waiver wires that the the avid sports
players should be looking at? I guess we're just going, right,
(46:00):
asked Kevin Kermeyer, and going to Jacoby Jones. What do
you mean you aren't? You weren't done? All right? Tell
me more numbers that reinforced why a logical player should
be picked up? Like I just feel like science perspective.
You've already established your point. I said it at the
end of May. I'll say it again. Pick up Kevin Kuma. Alright,
that's that's the line you wanted again to Kobe Jones.
(46:21):
Tremendous to Kobe Jones nine percent of Jacoby Jones a
wide receiver for the Falcons, and Julio Jones. Julio Jones
an opportunity. What about Jacoby nine percent owned? He's hitting
three sixty one over his last thirty days with six
homers and four swipes. Pretty interesting, right, all right? What
about Yondi DS? What about Yon d Ds? What do
(46:42):
you think about him? Think he's a very good hitter.
But I'm talking about Jakoby Jones. He's Kevin kumeer light
in my opinion, Jacoby Jones and it's hard hit writing
next a velocity are off the charts. So once he
starts inting breaking ball is a bit better, he'll be
a valuable gotta have. Especially at nine percent. You can
talk about no. I just asking he thought about him,
(47:03):
said it was a good hitter. I think he's just
someone that you should look to pick up. For sure.
It's his percentage he's got. That's what it says, right here,
I'm blocking the light. I'm blocking the light. He thought
I was trying to like say that, like I knew it.
I'm looking right here, d owned. This is some fantasy, Bros.
They have Jackie Bradley on this list. M Trevor Richards
(47:28):
picture okay, Kyle Seeger okay? Have I framber? Do you
own any framber? I own? This is great? What about
any ball Sanchez? Okay? And last or not least Pablo
(47:49):
all right? And then they have Deep League tarms, which
I think I'm really cool to. What the hell just
happened to you? Oh? It's really that was one of
the most anythings I've ever seen. Like, I think that's it.
We go home. Do you have anything else you want
to pack up? Adrian Sampson on Guy Okay, what about
Roberto Perez trash? What let's say? Uh? He said? Putty
(48:14):
decent mort Coma, He's okay, okay, John Duplantier's okay. Ryan Harper,
he's actually pretty good, but let's see opportunities yet. Carson
Kelly decent, Pedro Savarina trash okay, alright, alright, folks, for
Joe and I gotta take this hitset off, I don't
(48:35):
know dot com dot com Ye, dude, what about it?
To the best. But now like I feel weird, like
I don't want to keep hitting them up for like,
did you use the promo? That's the promo CODEH was nice?
There you go? What we done? Oh my god? Weird? Alright?
(49:00):
For Joe the sound guy, you want to hit anything,
Mike's done here Joe, For the guy formerly known as
Mike de Rodo cop, I'm not striking. We say good luck,
be safe, have fun. We'll see you out
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast, and remember, if you
want to listen live, download the I Heart Radio app,
download the tune and app and just search for Fantasy
Sports Radio Network and you could listen to this program live. Also,
if you want to watch the video of this podcast,
check us out on YouTube, on twitch, or on Periscoope
(00:21):
and type in you guess d Fantasy Sports Network. You'll
find us there. Enjoy the show and thanks for listening, ladies,
and to the Fantasy Baseball Breaking newsks and what's up everybody.
Welcome the Fantasy Baseball Hour Match Striker Mike the Rhodo Cop.
(00:42):
And this is one of those moments that like they'll
make a movie of it. I'm coming up the stairs
here in the studio, Mike kids mes like we have
breaking news, and he opens up his laptime the camera
straight out. You hit me like in a movie, like
I tell you Mark Wahlberg is gonna play one of us.
But you're like, yell for Chris. Chris Paddock sent down
to single A looked at you and I know his
last three starts have been like subpar, But then you
(01:04):
tell me it's for preservation and because she's a friend
of the show. You're telling me we have we can
reach out to his brother Michael as his manager and
talk to him about it. Yeah, so Mike's a friend
of the show. He um, he said, Oh, come on,
we'll give him a call now, just to figure out
everything that's going on with Chris. I know a lot
of people are speculating a lot of things, So hopefully
Mike could give us a clearer picture of what's going on.
(01:27):
I hope, he answers, Well, it's a crazy day. Hello, hey, Mike,
how you doing, man? Do you hear me? Yeah? What's up? Man? Yeah,
it's Matt from Matt Striker from Matt and Mike. Yes, sir,
what's going on? Hey? Man? Have you been Mike? You
You and Mike were talking a little bit earlier. Yeah,
well he texted me a little earlier and then uh said,
you guys were texting help on the show. So um,
(01:49):
happy to hear from you. Man, it's been too long.
That's bigger. We missed you. I missed you when you
came through. But listen, I wanted to play some golf
in New York. But that's another story. Well, we'll talk
about Chris. So yeah, my kids, whether the weather wasn't
that great that weekend anyway, so we'll have to catch
a better and better day that it was not meant
to be. So, so Mike hits me as I come
up the stairs here in the studio. He's like, yeah,
He's like, you know, they send Chris down and it's
(02:12):
it's this is for preservation, right, This isn't for any
other reason other than that. Is that correct? Yeah? This
is Uh, this was a predetermined um move that they had.
I think they were kind of wanting to see how
the season played out to know exactly what week they
were gonna do it. But they were They were playing
on this all along, and we knew all along too.
(02:33):
It's just, uh, it's never good to hear. And he
wasn't too happy to hear when they told him, but
he knows it's for his own interest, and um, you
know he'll be fine. When did they tell him? I
believe they told him last night, late last night. Um,
that's that's when I got the text. So um he uh.
He didn't give me too many details because he was
(02:54):
pretty frustrated, but um, I think everything's gonna be good.
He got some more information today and realized that it
wasn't performance based or anything like that. So yeah, definitely
not performance space, that's for sure. Um, this was, like
you said, something that everyone really discussed behind the scenes,
and even in the fantasy world that we're in, that
Paddock might not see the innings that you're gonna want
an ace to see or whatever it is, even though
(03:15):
he is still pitching like an ace. He could stay
down up to twenty days before it affects his service time,
So I'm assuming he'll be back up soon. That will
be in play as far as I know. Um, it's
the padres, it's it's a j pelor so you never know. Um,
he's uh, he's got some method to his chaos. But
now I was told that, uh this, you know, no
(03:37):
matter what happens this year, with all the moves they're
gonna make up and down or whatever they end up doing,
he is not going to lose a year of service time.
So um, that being said, you know, he's got what
seventeen days or twenty days? I think, and uh I think,
uh first first ballpark number I heard for this, this
little trip down is gonna be like ten days maybe, Uh,
(03:59):
I don't even know. They're just trying to get him
some extend address. Let's get the start more or less. So, um,
he'll be fine. He's he's a competitor man, and I
think he was frustrating the fact that he feels like
he's letting his team down, not giving him a chance
to go out there and compete and win. But um,
maybe need him to pist for team he was after
two months. So there you go. That that that's you know,
you hit it on the head. And I like when
(04:20):
we have these kind of discussions because instead of looking
at this situation in a negative, what I've been thinking
this whole time that you're talking is I can't wait
to see Chris come back. Can you imagine him like
as beast, like just his full potential. So it's almost
exciting that there's this opportunity for what I thought to
be great to get even better. Yeah, I can't. I
(04:41):
agree with you on that. I understand. And that's that's
one thing that you know, it kind of goes overlooked.
Not too many people talk about it a whole lot
with Chris, but his entire career, professional career, ever since
he's been drafted, he's uh, he's had some sort of
harness on him some sort of in his limit or
a pittil limit or something, and I just I'm look
forward to the future, you know, maybe another year, eighteen
(05:02):
months from now, when he will literally have nothing on
him that his hand in the ball every fifth day,
and think we'll get us win for him. For the
mind of the mentality of a picture to go out
there with no restrictions and nothing holding you back and
know when you can go out there and give it
your all and not have to worry about coming out
in the fifth inning or sixth inning or ninety pitches
or that's gonna be so much, so much better for him,
and I look forward to it. But for now, we'll
(05:24):
we'll deal with what he's got to do with and
and continue to work. So yeah, that seems ideal. Like
you said, the scenario eighteen months from now or whatever
it is, um real quick, I just want to clarify.
And if you don't have the answer, I totally understand
he won't be pitching in the minor leagues. Correct why? Honestly,
I don't have the answer to that, but I would
still hoping not kind of defeat the purpose because one
(05:47):
of the guys I would assume no, Yeah, but they might,
they might give him. You know, I wouldn't be surprised.
I have honestly have. I'm speculating. I have no idea.
I haven't heard anything, but for him to go out
maybe in five or six US and throw them one
or two intings that won't surprise me, just to kind
of keep him in game rhythm. Um, but I'd seriously
doubt you're gonna see him throwing ninny pitches and and
(06:09):
high Yeah, absolutely so. So regardless, then the spirits are
high amongst amongst the camp, right we as as friends
of the camp. There's nothing to worry about, and a
better Chris Paddock is coming. You agree with that? I
I agree the best is yet to come. Man. I've
got zero percent to do with mental issue, zero percent
(06:30):
with arm issue. A matter of fact, he told me
yesterday before start his arms felt has felt better this
past way he than never has an entire career. So, uh,
it's getting stronger. He's still coming back from that t
J surgery. So you know, the further the further we
get away from that, the better his arm is gonna
grow and get, you know, get stronger and feel better.
So he's good. Um, he's in good spirits. I think
(06:52):
he's you know, like I said, he's just he feels
like he's letting his team down. Um that's just a
competitive who he is. But he he understands he needs
to be there to help them throughout the whole year
rather than I'm shutting them down in August earlier August.
So he's good to go, man, And I appreciate I've
had so many people reach out and show support and
wish him well and I can't wait to see him
back and those sorts of things. And that's that's really
(07:14):
cool man. It's really it's really uplifting and awesome to see.
But uh, yeah, he's good to go, man. Nothing to
worry about. Nice Iron shopperings Iron my friend, and we
know that you have a busy days. We just want
to reach out. We want to say what's up, and
thanks for clarifying everything. It's it's always good to talk
to you, and uh we'll talk to you again. All right. Hey, guys,
take it easy and uh, I think just keep your
counters open. But I think they have a stretch in
(07:37):
a city field or Shasee Stadium or the until now
at the met at the weekend of the All Star break.
So assuming he's back then and and all of that
Peter Alonzo stuff that's going on, I hope he gets
the throws in and so I'll hit you up and
we'll be able to play some golf. You know. I
wasn't gonna say anything, but there's a lot of Pete
Alonso gifts calling on Twitter right now. But I'm sure,
oh god, yeah, I can only imagine. I I I've
(08:00):
been hit up with a lot of people saying, yeah,
that's this, and that it's good. It's good stuff. I
hope he gets to throw. I hope he gets to
throw that. That serious, but we'll see what happens. I
appreciate it, man, Thanks a lot day. That was some
That was a big step for the Fantasy Baseball Hour
right there. You know, a few a few things to
(08:21):
analyze and break down or unpack as they say, off
of that first and foremost, it's amazing the time we
live in that that breaking Like where else you're gonna
get as close to a statement about the feelings and
emotions of this player other than the player himself, than
than to his brother and you you were able to
pull that off. We had more time. I would like
(08:43):
to get Chris on the show, but yeah, I just
don't think that. Also feel that there's a there's a
can you retweet the Paris home doing the things at
all the kids trying to different things. Yeah, I know
you're the You're the man. Trust me. We appreciate you.
You do, you serve your purpose. You are a pillar.
If this is a tripod and Joe and me and you,
(09:06):
You're Mike's essential, your essential. This is a nice little
team here. I am sawing Michaels to your Marty Genetti.
That's that's what I mean. I do. I like it.
I also wanted to tag my boys ras Ball. I
don't we have breaking news, but checking me out, dude.
I have a T shirt and I'm more excited to
have have this that I always have, like a wrestling
T shirt in a long time. You have your your
Bullet Club shirts that I'm doing a raz Ball T shirt?
(09:27):
What are you doing? What are you falling off the
chair now? I'm leaning over so that you mean it's
better than your useful? You know the converse. I own
shares in Chris Paddock across the board, but I'm not
dropping him. Do you advise the listener to drop Paddock,
depending I guess on your league situation. No, I don't
(09:49):
think you could drop him at this point, even though
it is a bit concerning because this tick come earlier
than expected, and for people that have been listening to
the show consistently, we were saying before the season and
even during a stretch in the beginning, there's gonna be
a point where Chris Paddock might not be as valuable
in head to head league as opposed to rotists. League's
gonna head to head league. He's not gonna be there
for you in the playoffs, right, So that was something
(10:10):
that we're concerned about, but I didn't think it would
happen this soon. I mean today's June twelve. I think
that's a little bit forward to send him down to
the minors on June twelve. But these guys got paid
for this, they know what they're doing. So as far
as paddocks, I would not drop him, and I would
hold on to him. It kind of sucks because you
can't even sell high on him right now because nobody's
(10:30):
gonna give you what he's actually worth at this point.
So you're kind of in a in a place where
you're stuck with him. Okay, but you know something, there's
worst guys to do exactly, there's worse guys to be
stuck with. But for now, I just hold all the
paddock shares you have and just take it from there.
But this is this is cool. This is cool that
might came on. This was cool to uh to be
able to do this. We also got a couple of
(10:52):
pictureless guys coming on the show, Dan McNamara and Nick Durley. Um,
I want to do current events. I know, I don't
think we're gonna have time for We got Waiver Wire
adds a little bit of DFS. You want to do
current events? You want to just skip right over, Joe,
What do you got for us for current events? We
got Kevin Durant in the NBA Finals. Kevin Durant, Yeah,
man Achilles, did you watch? Yeah? I saw they showed
(11:13):
like the thing or whatever it was. I know that
that injury forced Edge out for a long time. Yeah,
for I want to say, almost nine months, supposed to
be longer. But he has great recrupitative powers, does he
had them? But yeah, so that's that's it's a blow.
But I go back to the fact that the Warriors
have won without him, like he's he's a new piece
(11:35):
there essentially if you think about it, as long as
that core stays and I still think they're gonna win.
We both said Warriors in the six when it post started, right, Okay,
so yeah seven, you said Warriors in six. We both
said Warries and maybe seven. We wouldn't. Uh, it wouldn't
be the worst thing in the world. We wouldn't be
that far off, I should say, if it was Warriors
and seven. So that's one thing Blues Bruins tonight, right,
(11:58):
that's when it's excellent. List. Yes, sir, sorry for stealing
it from there, No problem, Loues Bruins Game seven up
in Boston. You're the hockey guy, you know. I mean,
I grew up playing hockey, That's all I am. So
oh I didn't hear you, right, dude, You don't have
to come to me like that. Yeah, man, I was.
I tweeted out a picture Doug Gilmore in a picture
of Cam Neely. You have to go back to like
but in nine and remember how these teams were were viewed.
(12:21):
I always like to St. Louis Blues because I like
to St. Louis Cardinals. It'll be nice for that city
to to have that, and if you really want to
go there, you can think about that. In the past,
like five summers, that area of Missouri has really been
kind of in battled, Like you know, if Ferguson isn't
too far away from there, and there's only there's been flooding,
there's just been all kinds of stuff. So it would
(12:42):
be nice for that city. But the Bruins, on their hand,
have players that I root for, you know, I want
to see this guy raised. Of course you have to
root for Ena, but I mean some of them have
had the opportunity to throw the cup up already once
sou Boston Boston and Boston Boston always wins. Speaking of Boston,
real bad news out of the Dominican Republic. David Ortiz, Yes,
(13:06):
is a big deal. That's what you wrote next to
the now. But what's the deal is it was in
an assassination attempt for eight thousand dollars is not really true? Seven.
The rumors are rampant on the internet. From from the
sources I took a look at it says that he
was allegedly with a drug lord's wife and that the
person who called this assassination attempt was a top Really
(13:29):
he was the trigger man. Oh, I didn't hear that part.
I know seven guys were involved in the six of
them have been arrested so far, but seven guys are
getting paid eight grand total, the little thousand dollars each
for each guy. So that doesn't make more sense to
me that you would. That kind of also falls into
the forget the political things aside, and some of the
accusations on that guy from that show Empire that he
(13:49):
paid to Nigerian guys like beat him up to what
I'm saying he paid them, Like I think the number
was also a number where like seven thousand each where
kind of like normal kind of people go, huh, are
you gonna do that for that crazy ships going on
in the d R right now because these people are
drinking the water from the bar and dying and all this.
I don't know if you keep up with that. Yeah,
(14:11):
it was a bunch of crazy. So that what happens
when I don't pay attention. So let's get back on track.
We got Kimbrill and Kaiko again second week in a row.
Kimberll to the Cubs, Kaiko to the Braves. They didn't sign.
If I'm not mistaken on last week before last week show,
did they think? Okay? So Kimbell goes to the Cubs,
Kiku to the Braves. Obviously this is a played out
(14:33):
conversation by now, but you got to mention it on
a show like this. Steamer has these two projections with me.
I'm listening. That was Kaiko? A hundred four innings three
point six three is a Steamer projection? You okay? With
that three point six three r um? I would I
would want to have a lower You are right? Do
you think you have over your want him to? Okay?
(14:54):
How many wins is he projected for I don't know.
If I didn't write that down, I think it might
have been seven. If I'm not miss taken, I could
pull that up for you. If you want third of
the season gone, I want to one games. No Steamer
has been that seven wins. I was right, seventeen games, okay, okay,
go ahead? And what was the other things for Kurt
(15:15):
kimberl Eighteen saves and a two point eight seventy year right,
Really it was a little high for Kimberley, all right,
But regardless of impressives eighteen saves, eighteen saves over let
me see how many innings it has some slot of
at six thirty two winnings, eighteen saves appears in thirty
(15:36):
two games, thirty two winnings and thirty two games. I
could see it in case per nine they have it
at thirteen point eight seven walks per nine is almost
at a four. See it's crazy because two years ago
and two down seventeen is walk great was a one
point eight three, and then last year was a four
point four. So who knows where the walks are gonna
because the year before that it was a five point
(15:56):
on nine. So obviously you would you would play the
ladder and think, uh, the walks are going to be
closer to that four point four eight from last year.
But you can turn around and look at Edmund as
vand has had that walk crazy wall create one year
and then the next year you know in seing the
wal grate so and that that translated into better numbers
all across the board. So I think, uh, I'm expecting
a little bit more from Kimbero. No. Yeah, And I
(16:19):
think that it helps the Cubs, it bolsters them and
makes they were fading away. You know Strup was not
gonna do it, and and things of this nature. But
now they're starting to hit, and then they're still a
good baseball team. I think they also could use another start,
another arm, but yeah, Kimball definitely makes them formidable. And
one thing that I didn't put on the list for Ardia,
(16:40):
you're don Elarez was called up over the week now
where we were away from the studio, you on him
and hest in my main three dream already six minutes too.
And we'll get this guy in the show because he
used to do a show with Lenny Melnick and he
runs a cool a couple of good only leagues al
only and only he used to rest was Antonio Thomas
(17:01):
and w W part of the Heartbreakers now he wrestlers
is Thomas Santel. I want to say, I gotta look
a toy. His name is Tom He's he's a great guy.
He's a great baseball guy. Would love to have him
on the show. Tonio Thomas a good follow too. If
you can pull up his social media, He's a good follow.
He does a cool gimmick. He's almost a Marty McFly
of professional wrestling. He looks like William Regal. But you
(17:23):
know what I mean, Like he's very hollo, but he's
a great like amateur you know, good type of vanilla
ice cream ma wrestler, and the people really get behind him.
I think he's doing stuff up in the in the Northeast,
I want to say, with companies like Beyond and stuff
like that. It's pretty cool when you see a friend succeeding.
You have him up on your social I have him
up on Wikipedia. What was his wrestling name in WW
(17:45):
Antonio Thomas Thomas. Thomas doesn't sound too familiar to me.
Usually I know all the wrestlers, you know, Yeah, usually
you know what I mean. Let some great radio here, buddy,
let me pull up his social media. I don't any
want to keep talking about your friends here, talk about
so he beat you to it? Yeah, so he beat
me to it by thirty six minutes. And I was
(18:06):
very upset by that and a couple of my other leagues.
I don't have any maneuver ability. I don't really have
anyone to drop, so I'm kind of like stuck and
I'm like whatever. But I have to admit, in the
last like three or four days, I've been neglecting my
teams all around. Yeah, because I know it's a long season.
I know, give me a few days in a waiver
wire and I can at least work some magic to
get in the money. Depending on how far off I've
(18:28):
let a team slip, do you ever do that? Dude?
You're like way too cocky about this. Do you ever
let a team slip? No? I would have a team slip. Um,
I want to talk to you a little bit about
why let a team slip? I want to talk, Well,
I don't know, because base was a long season and
you have innings. This is but I watch guys and
I'll see them they're are I'm making it up two
hundred points ahead of everybody, get their innings thing, and
(18:49):
they're under by a d eight. You do some quick
math and come like the last five days of the season,
he won't have any innings. And if I stay within
striking distance, I can just stream that at some pictures
and I win and like that. I know that. So
depending on how far out I am, like, that's why
baseball is long. I want to ask you. In football,
it's not the same way, is it. Football is a
completely different animal. Man? So, um, I what I did
(19:11):
is I made this bet with my friend Ryan, so
I do not Ryan. His name is Ryan Goldstein. He's
the president of a p Keaton. They're a marketing firm.
They're pretty cool. No, you know you don't like you.
Uh so, Um, what we're gonna do is we're gonna
try to He wants me to play my my fantasy
football leagues under his style because we play a totally
(19:35):
different style. So I wanted what is your style to
play like? You're on top of everything. You you work
a hard draft, You almost play like a best ball
in a way. As far as my strategy, you're asking
your season long coaching strategy. It's a little different in baseball,
where when guys are hot, you don't have to add
them because in football, as soon as that guy gets
(19:57):
the starting spot, or as soon as that guy does
something that's so crazy that he's going to get a
starting spot or whatever it is, you're getting a clothes
from one of the pictul those guys, Now, um, you
just gotta run to the wire. I think it's more
more um first come basis in football, unless you're playing
a league with waivers and everything else is involved. But
for the most part, I just try and get to
(20:17):
the wires fast I can and pick up whoever whoever
is the hot name. Right. So, so you you're working
a waiver where you're doing all these things, Now, do
you essentially like there's only like four or five guys
throughout the whole entire season that are really going to
make a difference for your team. So you've got to
almost pick up everyone as opposed to Jake Cardizi as
a one point nine seven year right, But I'm still
not picking him up and I'm kind available at this point.
(20:39):
But I know Jake Cordi is gonna fall off football.
It's not like that. Okay, Now, what about when you're drafting,
do you go RB RB? You go running back? Running back?
Like right away? What's your approach? Um A little bit cocky?
And my family football um football style. So I when
(20:59):
I was growing up, I always had to have Aaron
Rodgers on my team, had to otherwise I refused to
do it. Why just because I enjoyed watching play so much.
So I would take Rogers where he wasn't supposed to
be going, thinking to myself that I'm gonna not even
just to throw it off, just so that I had Rogers,
and I was good enough to surround him with the
right team to make the playoffs. So it's a little
(21:21):
bit cockiness on my point, but I mean, I'm planning
to do the same thing this year, Patrick Mahomes, So
you might see me take the homes in the second
round when he should go in the whatever the rankings say,
the third or fourth round, just so I could have
my homes and watch him every Sunday. Okay, So that
for you is how you play your fantasy game? Is
that so you can actually watch these guys like you
look at like baseball. Uh, I love guys that get hits.
(21:43):
And with Maryfield and two hundred hits and I'm gonna
draft Wit Maryfield, I'm not going to really watch two
two hundred and sixty two games of Wit Maryfield. You
like to actually physically be able to like watch your
guy and be Yeah, because Sundays is a little different.
Sundays just one day baseball. Like I watched a million
at Bets a week, a thousand that's a week. But
I'm switching from game to game to game. You have
Patrick Mahomes out there, It's like you get that fifteen
(22:06):
times throughout the game. Where what how many of her
drives they have? And you really focus in on those drives.
That's why I like doing it with especially quarterbacks. That's interesting.
So yeah, because you hear I know it's only Jarem,
but you hear like different people talking about different strategies
and things like that, And I'm with you. I would
not be offended if I wanted to grab a quarterback
and like I don't around three, around four Deshaun Watson
(22:28):
if everything, do you hate me and think I'm stupid
if in the fourth round of our draft I have
Deshaun Watson? Is that who you said? It was a
number one quarterback? Yes, okay, I was gonna guess that.
I I did a little bit of fantasy football research
and forever is listening out there to the fancy baseball.
This is, uh the first time we're talking about fantasy
football this season. It's a little bit earlier. No, I
don't know. I just I just wanted to start to
(22:49):
think and to pretend, well, we wait for to live
in a pretend world, pitcherless guys to call in. Um.
I was looking at some top tens and Watson was
the number two quarterback head of Roger is luck, Ryan Wentz,
new In Mayfield, Wilson Breeze. I would not take Cam
Newton over Baker Mayfield, that's for sure. I think Baker
Mayfield is gonna have a humongous season. As far as
(23:11):
the running backs status quo Barkley Elliott McCaffrey. A friend
of mine told me that bar is the if you
are thirty years and younger, Skwon Barkley is the greatest
and will be the greatest running back you will ever see.
Is that is he generational? That's a that's a good question.
(23:35):
Would I say he's generational? No? Why? I don't know.
I just feel like there's been been better running backs
over the course of my my lifetime. Is he better
than Oladainian Tomlinson? Or it hasn't been proven yet, it
hasn't improven yet. This is this is almost a a
projection apart prognostication. If you will, great player, don't get
(23:57):
me wrong. Probably the best player in football as far
as fantasy os. But I don't know if I would
call him the best running back ever at this point.
All right, he's only been around for a season. Talk
to me about your favorite team and how do you
think fantasy advice. They'll be valuable the Jets. I guess
Levy on Bell will be pretty valuable ranked running back. Okay,
(24:19):
I got him as eat here. Okay, I guess he'll
do Levy on Bell things. He got a year to
uh sit out. And what if the entire offensive scheme
is structured around him. I think it should be because
I'm not as high on Sam Donald as as most
people are. Donald is the twenty four of the top
of your head. Huh. I'm just saying, you know, I
(24:42):
just remember because I was having a conversation, so I
had to look it up. And then the next point's
gonna Bobby Grossman, I think the twenty seventh rank receiver.
So but what is that Robbie Grossman, the outfielder for
the I thought, like, you know what I'm talking about.
And on that note, hang on then alright, joining us
on the line. This is a street, my friend. We
are just taking corners and squares and working a four way. Here.
(25:03):
We have Dan McNamara and Nick Drelling, Nick Jerley, Sorry man,
guys from picture list, what's going on? What's going on?
Thanks for coming on the show, guys, I know, uh
we you guys discussed a lot of stuff in the
in the Picture List discord, so I wanted to have
you on and talk about the articles you wrote recently.
Sorry about the timing. We had Chris Paddocks brother Michael,
(25:24):
and I don't know, Dan said, you just got just
got in. Nick, you heard Chris got sent down to
the minor leagues. I know, I'm still I'm still grieving.
I'm still getting over it. So his brother says he's
fine and should be up before we know it. So
that's a good, uh good sign that there's nothing going
on behind the scenes. Let's start with Nick here in
the picture breakout forecasting picture breakouts with two strike rates.
(25:45):
So this is an artically wrote on picture list dot com.
For those who don't don't go on picture lists dot com,
you really should. It's a great, great way to get
fantasy insight, and Nick and Dan are always active on there,
as is Nick Pollock Alex asking a bunch of other
guys in the industry. So, Nick, tell us about this
article you wrote back in I think it was April twelve. Yeah,
I was in early April. And you know, basically the
(26:06):
old adage that the picture needs to pitch ahead, right,
That's that's one of the oldest truisms in baseball. Um,
but it's something that didn't really get a whole lot
of attention from the saber metrics revolution that's occurred over
the last five years. So, you know, to strike grade
was really my my attempt to quantify that. So it's
calculated as the percentage of pitches that a picture throws
(26:30):
and O to one, two into two counts and uh,
you know, a good measure of that is about thirty,
average is about and bad would be And you know
what I found in the article is that to strike
rate is actually just as robust as a stat like
swinging strike rate, which I was actually surprised about at first.
(26:53):
And uh, the additional thing about it is it it
actually has less random variants. You know, there's less random
start to start in month to month variance in a
stat like swinging strike ray. So that that really got
me intrigued, like, hey, I can I can use this
stat kind of to to get an edge on my
my fantasy competition and better understand how a picture really
(27:14):
attack attacks hitters. Yeah, so one of the things in
your article you actually, um, well what you did was
you put pictures to target based on your findings and
pictures to avoid based on your findings. And for the
most part, you did pretty well with this because in
the list of pictures to target you had Matt Boyd
and Lucas Giolito and the pictures to avoid you and
Nick Pavetta and Zach Wheeler. Obviously Pavetta got sent down.
(27:36):
Now he's back up, he's doing pretty decent. But Wheeler
struggled all a year. But I gotta I gotta call
you out on this. Also you have pictures to target
Adam Plucko and pictures to avoid Mike Minor So using
this stat the two strike percentage, why is it that
those guys ended up on those lists? Is that just
something that you gotta take take with a grain of salt, sure,
(27:56):
And look, this isn't a perfect science, right, uh, you know,
two strike grade, it's a it's a descriptive stats, so
kind of descritch what's happened, and it's it's a little
predictive in nature, but a picture can improve and to
strike rate, and that's that's actually what's exactly what Mike
Myers done over over the last four to five weeks.
So you know, really you know, my intention was his
(28:16):
stat with this stat was to kind of use it
in conjunction with other stats like swinging strike rate, to
really see if you can confirm a breakout. Um. You know,
an interesting case would be someone like Louise Castillo, where
he's a guy, especially three or four weeks ago, by
every metric imaginable, he looked amazing. Um you know, x
fit E r A, x wOBA, swinging strike rade, etcetera, etcetera. UM.
(28:40):
But the one stat that he didn't look great by
it was was too strike great. And so that doesn't
necessarily say Castillos all of a sudden gonna suck, but
it says, hey, he's pitching behind um batters a lot,
and he's relying on batters making mistakes rather than you know,
dictating the agenda to a hitter. I think it's maybe
(29:01):
more likely that he's going to have maybe a little
bit of a regression going forward. So that's that's kind
of really the way that that you should use it.
And I look at the two strike leaders now, and
on top of that list is Chris Paddock. You have
at a minimum seven fifty pitches here. The rest of
the guys, Jacob de graum Garrit called justin Merland there,
Max Scherzer, the guys that you think would be up
there up there, then you've got guys like Cabe Smith,
(29:23):
Geelito's eleven, Kershaw twelve, Granky fifteen, Ordo Rizzy sixteen. So
it's pretty indicative because all these guys are having great seasons,
especially guys like Ordo Rizzy who this this These findings
really back up what he's doing. I know U Matt
had a question about this. Yeah, I'm saying, how can
you capitalize on someone that you think is trending up
(29:46):
in this category? If a listener out there maybe wants
to put their eye on someone that isn't going to
be so widely owned, sure exactly, you know, And I
think what you want to do is, you know, you
can look at the year long findings, right, but you
can also look over the last month or the last
month and a half and see, Okay, which pictures are improving,
there's two strike great, and which ones have an absolute
(30:07):
level which which is pretty high. And the example I
want to point out maybe as Lucas Giolito. So through
April thirty of this year, you know, Geolito wasn't necessarily
doing great at a five three e r A and
his other estimators were okay, but all of a sudden,
it's too strike. Greate was up to twenty seven point
nine percent, which is in the nine plus percentile, and
his swinging strike rate was in the seventieth percentile. So
(30:29):
you say to yourself, those are both really big improvements. Um,
you know this is a guy I should target and
you know, too strike great. You won't necessarily allow you
to say, you know, forecast four months out all this
guy's going to break out, but it allow you to
get a jump basically on you know, a starter who's
really starting to peak. And you know, for me, Giolito
(30:50):
and I think Dan as well, we're WILLI pick him
up in all our leagues because we saw the two
strike great trends and we're like, as soon as he
had that one or two good stars were okay, let's
grab So that's that's kind of how you how you
use it. So then Dan takes it a step further
and he writes an article going deep expanding on the
application of two strike rate. And what you did, Dan,
(31:11):
was you basically compared with rates and two strike rates yeah. So, so,
I mean I was inspired by Nick's work obviously, and
you know, there were there were some outliers. I think,
I think it's it's pretty obvious there are some guys
at the top of that list, and especially in Nick's
article where he showed the sample of pictures from two
(31:32):
sixteen all the way through two eighteen. Uh, you know,
you had guys in the top ten like uh, like
Rick Porcello was. It was a glaring outlier in terms
of his overall results, in his output, and it was okay,
so what is it about Porcello that kind of makes
him different from these other guys who are pretty much
bona fide, you know, cy young contenders every single year.
(31:54):
And when I the first thing that me and Nick
thought of was, well, he just he doesn't get as
many whiffs, doesn't get as any strike outs. So that's
where we started. And you know, right there, that was
where you start to notice, Okay, so poor Cello not
only has that ability to get ahead, or he does
have the ability to get ahead, but he doesn't have
the ability to guys away. So that got me looking
(32:16):
into the actual to strike with realm and what I
found was that called third strikes almost never happened in
two strike counts. When you get a called third strike,
you're falling into a sample of about four per cent
of the time. So I wanted to put guys into
(32:37):
a vacuum to start really really comparing these pictures who
not only have either a good or bad ability to
get into two strike counts, but also how good are
they are they actually finishing the at bat on their
own And if you look at Nick's work with rate
actually stays fairly similar from your neutral counts in to
(33:00):
your two strike accounts, but then it goes way way
way down when you get in the hitter accounts. So
we're able to take these guys who get into two
strike acounts are very very effectively, and we're able to say, okay,
so these are the guys who when they get to
two strikes they either elevate their game or they stay
the same if they're already good, or you have guys
who are worse than what they should be and we
(33:22):
can expect regression, or we have guys who are just
that in general, and they're not only they're they're they're
they're getting ahead, but they're still relying on contact. So
it becomes this really really interesting um sort of you
know comparison where you can spot guys who are you know,
getting with but they're not putting guys away, or you
(33:42):
spot guys who are getting ahead but unable to actually
finish it fas like it's and it really just kind
of brings it full circle and it puts guys into
you know, a really really nice picture and the ability
to compare pictures at a deeper level than just Okay,
they're getting ahead, now let's see if they can actually
finish things off. Uh, speak to the Luis Castillo owner
(34:04):
out there listening, um, also speak to if you can
maybe a James Paxton owner. Can you somehow try to
apply these things? Yeah, So with Luis Castillo, I think
you know Nick already brought him up, and he's he's
a spectacular example of this because if you look at
his to strike whift rate, it's absolutely through the roof.
It's above, which is apt, which is mind bogglingly good.
(34:28):
So clearly when he's able to get you into account
where you are on the back foot, he is finishing
you almost half the time, which is which is amazing.
The problem, like Nick mentioned, is that he's not getting
into those counts enough for it to be super meaningful.
So if you dive into a guy like him, you'll
(34:49):
see that he's made such a drastic change in his
approach that he's just almost non existent in terms of
his own rate. He's in the zone a league worst
thirty eight percent of the time at the moment. And
what I think that kind of speaks to is the
fact that hitters have something that they can very very
easily adjust to, because if you look at him count
(35:10):
by count, he just doesn't want to come into the zone.
Why does he not want to come into the zone.
I'm not sure. It could be just because last year
was a year that didn't go quite his way, so
he decided to start a voting bats more and more often.
But nonetheless, he's kind of leaving himself vulnerable to either
putting guys on base, which he's doing a lot. You
(35:30):
see he ranks in the top ten of walker, or
he's putting himself in positions where if he does come
into the zone, hitters can be more selective about the
pitches they are swinging at. So you you have to
give him credit because he does have an absolutely amazing changeup,
you do recognize that he may be fooling hitters. It
may look super enticing, but at the same time, if
(35:52):
hitters just take into account his tendencies of being outside
the zone, they might just start, you know, spitting on
that one open it's bitten on that O pitch and
just seeing if they could get ahead. Um. And at
that point you just you take him out of the
driver's seat and you forced him to come challenge you.
Now then, and in terms of like a practical recommendation, UM,
(36:13):
I'm pretty unabashed if if you have someone willing to
pay you value who's value in Castile, like a top
ten pitcher, top five picture trade. And it's like Dan saying,
he's basically walking in a high wire act right now,
Scouting reports, saber metrics teams are gonna eventually start queuing
to the fact that, hey, when I get to a
two oh account against Castillo, I don't need to swing.
(36:34):
He's going out of the zone with a change up,
and uh, you know, he just leaves himself exposed to
that type of adjustment. Here's something for your nick. Would
you trade Luis Castile for Trevor Bauer right now? You know,
that's a that's an interesting one. I would say yes,
And to be honest, I don't quite know why Bowers
um scuttled here, but I trust Bowers, you know, obviously
(36:59):
in tuition and mechanics and technological advancement, UM, that he
can figure it out. UM. I think Castillo is really talented,
probably the top for sure, UM. But I like Bauer
long term more. You know. I read something that I
think Rob Silver tweeted. If I'm not mistaken, he said,
if you took everything about Bower that we know and
(37:20):
put it aside, put aside his work ethic, put aside
all the training videos, put aside all the advanced analytics
and everything else, and he was doing what he was
doing right now, would anyone have the kind of hope
for him that everybody does have. So that was an
interesting tweet. Uh. We're here with Dan McNamara at Danny
hot Takes on Twitter, Nick Jarley, and I'm pronounced all right,
Nick Churley, You got it, yeah, Nick Jurley at Nick
(37:41):
Jorley p l for picture List at picture list dot com.
You can read all their stuff before we wrap up here. Dan,
at the end of your article, you spoke a little
bit about CSW, which is alex fast is baby uh
called swing? Uh? What's the c s W stand for?
Cold strike as called strikes plus whips? Okay, clause strikes plus.
(38:04):
So you talked a little bit about how that ties
into this whole two strike and two strike grade and
two strike with Yeah. So I think Nick again mentioned
this earlier, No once that is perfect. You've gotta make
sure you're using these things in conjunction. It's why I
wrote my article to add to the two strike realm
and how we can let these stats play off one another.
(38:25):
That you don't you don't want to forget about CSW
because it plays a very very important role in just
letting you know how good a picture is at getting
what I would refer to as contact list strikes, so
called strikes at with right. So how good are they
generally at avoiding bats? Because in my opinion, if you
have somebody who is very very high in CSW and
(38:48):
has demonstrated an ability to either get balls past the
hitter or full a hitter on a swing, then that
tells me that even if they do have a very
very low to strike rate, they probably have the ability
to get up very quickly into a higher two strike rate,
because it demonstrates me that they have good command, they
(39:09):
have consistent command. And if you look at somebody, uh
that was highlighted in Nick's article, which was Herman Marquez,
He's a guy who seems to kind of fluctuate between that,
you know, mid twenties uh to strike rate. But then
if he jumps up to seven, he becomes an absolutely
elite ace. So you need to be willing to look
(39:31):
at c SW recognize when guys are just pure good
strike getters, and then if they are good at that,
have a little bit of encouragement that you could at
least see some sort of a rise in their two
strike rate if they're sort of floundering and that sort
of realm of mediocrity in the two strike realm. Yeah, definitely, Nick.
Before we let you guys go here, what's next in
(39:52):
your in your research or in your findings. Are you
working on anything related to this? Sure? You know, I
like to keep things fresh. I actually just rode an
art goal last week for picture lists on pulled flyballs. Um,
you know, obviously over the last three years of flyball revolution,
everyone loves fly ball, especially pulled flyballs, shortest way to
get a home run. Um. It's kind of the point
(40:12):
though we're in fantasy analysis, we just kind of blindly
look at pulled flyballs is a good thing, and uh,
you know, what I realized in the article and doing
my research is that there's really no relationship between pulling
flyballs and increasing overall offensive production. Uh. You know, there's
a lot of different variables that go into that, and
typically when you pull more flyballs, um, you know, you
end up hitting more pop ups and less line drives
(40:34):
and striking out more. So. UM, you know, it's it's
kind of a complicated equation, and so I kind of
want to do more in that area of research. They'll
probably a follow up article in the next couple of weeks. Awesome, Dan,
how about you. Yeah, I'm actually I'm doing a couple
of you know, individual player deep dives. UM. I've been
very fascinated by the out by the breakout at obviously
(40:56):
Garcia this week, so I'm currently working so I'm currently
working on a going deep for that. Um, but I'm
also continuing to kind of dive into the two strike
realm and I'm doing it a little bit on the
hitter side as well. I'm very, very fascinated by Joey
Gallows breakout, and if you look at and if you
look at one of the significant changes that he's done,
(41:17):
he's actually being patient to the point that he's putting
himself into the top tier of hitters on a two
strike basis, in other words, being in two strike counts
the least amount of time compared to when he was
in the bottom over the last three seasons. So I
think that that is something that could be very very
interesting to look into as well, see if we can
(41:38):
take two strikes away from just starting pitching and apply
it to hitting as well. Uh So that's going to
be something that I look into down the line as well.
Nice to be continued. So much information. That's what I love.
I love and guests come on and they're just like
provoke thought and that's what I like. Thanks guys, We
really appreciate it. We'll have you back on and we'll
talk some more. Okay, okay, very much, guys. Thanks math,
Thanks like you. Gotta appreciate it. My good stuff. I
(42:00):
it's it's thought provoking. It really puts you in a
place that you start to look at your teams and
your players and your leagues differently, and then you start
to especially now right June, you start making some trade
offers that interrupting the Paris cope. Froze here, froze. That's
not a good thing. Keep going, you start making trade
off and keep going. You start to make trade offers
(42:25):
that you're actually okay with because you have the analytics
behind them, you have a little more confidence. Most times,
when I'm tinkering with a trade, I'm like, God, do
I really want to give you drinkers? And profile is
so much position. But then if I can look at
some you know, metrics and go, you know what, man,
I'm telling I'm gonna look back in three weeks. Friend
of mine has had a chance. He was asking me
if he should trade Ken Giles. I trade him train
(42:46):
into the trainers and not and Giles goes on the
I l and I texted otego, yeah, did you do that,
Giles dearly as I Yes, I did so. I mean,
you have to look at these things, because that's to me,
how you you excel my friend. No, definitely, the show
is all over the place today with the spatic dudes.
Hey listen, we're journalists now. I don't know what's going on.
One of us is a journalist. Now, um so another
(43:06):
way that you one of us has always been a journalist.
I've been far all right. I wanted to talk about
some quick Waiver Wire adds a lot of times I'll
get an email from fantasy pros. Do you get that email?
I do get that. Email's pretty cool. What do you
think about what some of the picks are. I think
they're great fantasy pros. Michael Waterloo, who is the guest
(43:27):
on our on our show, is being in fantasy pros.
There's a couple of other people that I follow that,
uh really are a big part of what they do.
What email you're talking about, specifically, the fantasy prose gives
you that, Like week a levin waiver Wire picked up
this guy, that guy, that guy, this guy segue into
my waiver Wire pretty much. That's how that went. Nice.
(43:48):
So Michael Paddock was this is what happens. Is what
happens when you let Mike Steer and the train ladies
and gentlemen. I gave me. I gave it late things
with Peter look different. Man, so got to be a pro. Alright.
In any event, waiver Wire ads and this is interesting
because this is where we get not even We're not
even in the dog days yet. We're just in early June. Man,
(44:09):
we're not even at also, but the first third of
the season has gone by, so now you really start
to feel it a little more. You feel a pinch um.
How are your wire skills thus far? I'm sorry that
made me laugh? Made you laugh? Feel a pinch line.
So for a first during this waiver wire as segments, Okay,
I got nothing Joe done the first time? Or here
(44:33):
on I said go pick up Kevin Kermeyer, he was
fourteen percent oled. Since then, he's hitting two ninet two
with three homers, ten r bis and two stolen maces
three seven over the last week. Now, what is it?
What is he up to? Old? Okay? Why so little?
I don't know. I think people sleep on him. But
a lot of times, you know, if you need, if
(44:55):
I need you to tell me to go get Kevin
Kermeyer like something's not eight percent of Yahoo players do
so is this opens up a bigger discussion? How many
what percentage of Yahoo players are paying attention? Are players
that you would respect if you were in a league
with them? What do you think Yahoo? Even more for
fantasy football is the league that everyone just goes to,
(45:16):
makes their team and doesn't look at I think it's
more kind of I think it's more of a standard,
want to have fun type of thing as opposed to
the guys who are really looking at analytics. And so,
which sites do you feel that you found have a
population that are more analytical and you want to play
with the big ones? You play n f PC, You
probably inn f FC. You put your money where I'm
(45:38):
out is honestly, the more money, the more serious it
is going to be, the more research is gonna play
on fan tracks league, and and you can tell it's
just far different just when you go and you visit
the waiver wire and you're just like, oh, look there's
no one here. Yeah, well, most people playing fan tracks
are pretty avid fantasy sports players for sure. All Right,
who's some other waiver wires that the the avid sports
players should be looking at? I guess we're just going, right,
(46:00):
asked Kevin Kermeyer, and going to Jacoby Jones. What do
you mean you aren't? You weren't done? All right? Tell
me more numbers that reinforced why a logical player should
be picked up? Like I just feel like science perspective.
You've already established your point. I said it at the
end of May. I'll say it again. Pick up Kevin Kuma. Alright,
that's that's the line you wanted again to Kobe Jones.
(46:21):
Tremendous to Kobe Jones nine percent of Jacoby Jones a
wide receiver for the Falcons, and Julio Jones. Julio Jones
an opportunity. What about Jacoby nine percent owned? He's hitting
three sixty one over his last thirty days with six
homers and four swipes. Pretty interesting, right, all right? What
about Yondi DS? What about Yon d Ds? What do
(46:42):
you think about him? Think he's a very good hitter.
But I'm talking about Jakoby Jones. He's Kevin kumeer light
in my opinion, Jacoby Jones and it's hard hit writing
next a velocity are off the charts. So once he
starts inting breaking ball is a bit better, he'll be
a valuable gotta have. Especially at nine percent. You can
talk about no. I just asking he thought about him,
(47:03):
said it was a good hitter. I think he's just
someone that you should look to pick up. For sure.
It's his percentage he's got. That's what it says, right here,
I'm blocking the light. I'm blocking the light. He thought
I was trying to like say that, like I knew it.
I'm looking right here, d owned. This is some fantasy, Bros.
They have Jackie Bradley on this list. M Trevor Richards
(47:28):
picture okay, Kyle Seeger okay? Have I framber? Do you
own any framber? I own? This is great? What about
any ball Sanchez? Okay? And last or not least Pablo
(47:49):
all right? And then they have Deep League tarms, which
I think I'm really cool to. What the hell just
happened to you? Oh? It's really that was one of
the most anythings I've ever seen. Like, I think that's it.
We go home. Do you have anything else you want
to pack up? Adrian Sampson on Guy Okay, what about
Roberto Perez trash? What let's say? Uh? He said? Putty
(48:14):
decent mort Coma, He's okay, okay, John Duplantier's okay. Ryan Harper,
he's actually pretty good, but let's see opportunities yet. Carson
Kelly decent, Pedro Savarina trash okay, alright, alright, folks, for
Joe and I gotta take this hitset off, I don't
(48:35):
know dot com dot com Ye, dude, what about it?
To the best. But now like I feel weird, like
I don't want to keep hitting them up for like,
did you use the promo? That's the promo CODEH was nice?
There you go? What we done? Oh my god? Weird? Alright?
(49:00):
For Joe the sound guy, you want to hit anything,
Mike's done here Joe, For the guy formerly known as
Mike de Rodo cop, I'm not striking. We say good luck,
be safe, have fun. We'll see you out
Popular Podcasts
United States of Kennedy
United States of Kennedy is a podcast about our cultural fascination with the Kennedy dynasty. Every week, hosts Lyra Smith and George Civeris go into one aspect of the Kennedy story.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com