December 26, 2018 • 31 mins
Al Melchior discussed the blockbuster trade that sent Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, and Alex Wood to the Reds. Al also talks about what the trade means to each team. Al also discussed another 3 team trade that involved the Rays, Rangers, and Athletics. In that trade the Athletics acquired Jurickson Profar and names a list of other moves. Al mentions that this is the last show and shares of his plans for 2019\. Lastly, Al shares his appreciation to those that helped make this show happen and sends a warm thank you to those that listen and downloaded the podcasts. #fntsy #fntsysportsradio #almelchior #fantasybaseballhour #baseballseason2019 #3teamtrades #mattkemp #yasielpuig #alexwoods #lastshow #happyholidays #juricksonprofar
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Ladies and
gentlemen to the Fantasy Baseball with Welcome everybody. This is
(00:27):
the Fantasy Baseball Hour. I'm gonna post alm melk your hope.
You had a great holiday. Thank you so much for
tuning in. So this will be the last show foren
But it's also going to be the last Fantasy Baseball
Hour that I am doing period. Uh, this is it.
(00:48):
This is the the end of the road for me, uh,
for the Fantasy Baseball Hour. So I've got a lot
of things that I'm excited about. Fort have a couple
of new things lined up. Uh, They're gonna make it
very difficult for me to continue doing this show. So
that is why this is gonna be the last one
(01:09):
for me. So anyways, I just want to thank everybody
for listening, and I'll be talking more about this at
the at the end of the show. But there is
a lot to get to. There's a lot to talk about.
The hot stove is not really cooled off, even during
the holidays, so I'm just going to get right to it.
(01:29):
And we had a couple of big deals since the
last show. First of all, we had the blockbuster between
the Reds and the Dodgers. Uh So, Y'asiel Puig, Matt Kemp,
Alex Wood, and cow Farmer all heading to Cincinnati going
the other way to l A. Homer Bailey, Josiah Gray
uh right handed right handed pitching prospect, and Jeter downs
(01:54):
Uh second base prospect, respectively. Downs the number was the
number eight prospect in the Red system according to fan graphs,
and Gray number thirteen in the Red system. So those
two prospects going to l A. Homer Bailey already cut
loose by the Dodgers. Uh So, that was a foregone conclusion.
(02:15):
If he hadn't been dealt, the Reads most likely would
have let Homer Bailey go. So this provides a little
bit of luxury tax relief for the Dodgers and clears
some log jams that they had as well in the
outfield and in the rotation, although they're still uh well,
first of all, in the rotation, not even clear exactly
(02:38):
where there's going to be room for everybody that's still there. Uh.
Kent my eta has been. I've seen a couple different
places projected as the number five starter, but that would
block cross Stripling and Julio urius, So it's probably gonna
be barring other moves, sort of the status quo for
the Dodgers rotation that you're going to have. You know, first,
(02:58):
I have some players that are that are jury pro prone,
players that will probably jockey back and forth between the
rotation and the bullpen and in the case of strippling
and Urius, between the pitching staff whatever role it is,
and perhaps triple A. So it's actually a great term
(03:19):
for this. Uh Nick Pollock, who has been a guest
of the show several times. You know him from picture
list and rhotographs. Uh Nick has a great term for
this dodgerritis. So the pictures towards the back end potentially
of that rotation I think could still suffer from some
some dodgyritis. On the other hand, Alex Wood might have
found his cure going to Cincinnati. He would seem to
(03:42):
be health permitting a fixture in that Red's rotation, which
now looks a bit more solid than it did going
into the off season. Uh So you still you've got
Louis Castillo there, uh and Anthony DeSclafani, who's not been
able to stay healthy. But you've got those two pictures
and then in addition, you've got Tana Roark who was
(04:02):
recently acquired from the Nationals, and now Alex would So
that's your projected front four, not necessarily in that order
in Cincinnati, and then maybe a little bit of a
fifth starter backlog as well. Tyler Maylie and Cody Reid
I would think would be the lead contenders for that
(04:23):
final spot. Uh but uh, you know, you've got certainly
a more solid front four there and much more depth
and um in terms of the hitters going to Cincinnati,
of course, Puig is going to be the one who's
clearly going to be an everyday player for them. Not
(04:43):
clear what the Reds are going to do in terms
of filling the gap defensively left by Billy Hamilton's uh, Puig,
maybe part of that center field pick picture. Maybe it's
Scot Shoveler who has played some center field, UM, maybe
Nick sends All perhaps so that one is very much
still up in the air. But whether it's whatever position
(05:07):
in the outfield it is, I would expect that Puig
would be pretty much an everyday player for the Reds.
Mat kep that role that is clear, as has been
the case for him the last couple of seasons. So uh,
I know a lot of people are worried about Jesse
Winker and how much playing time he would get. To me,
it would seem to be an upset if Winker were
(05:29):
benched to make room for Kemp, But time we'll tell
with that. And then Kyle Farmer, he will I would
think it best to be a backup to Tucker Barnhardt.
Probably he'll be jockeying back and forth between the miners
and the majors. So uh, that's pretty much the the
picture there in terms of the impact for the Reds.
(05:50):
And now going back to the Dodgers, talked about their rotation,
but their outfield situation. Of course, you know they mixed
and matched all year, and you have players like Cody
Bellinger Chris Taylor who could play the infield. On the outfield,
I would think that they both probably barring other moves,
would see some time in center field. But the big
I think I haven't I've yet to even get to
(06:11):
maybe the biggest impact of this trade, which is that
it very firmly does put the Dodgers in the Bryce
Harper picture. And we haven't, of course heard anything definitive
there yet. But that would seem to be part of
the motivation for the Dodgers to make this deal, and
they certainly now have a spot where they could play
(06:32):
Bryce Harper. As of right now, you probably would have
an outfield of Jack Peterson and maybe a tandem of
Bellinger and Taylor and center and Alex Verdugo. I think
Verdugo is probably the one who's most on the bubble
here if they were to go for Harper or make
some sort of move, but that's gonna be an interesting situation.
(06:54):
So that was one big trade that happened in the
in the past week. The other one not quite the
same magnitude, although it did involve a lot of players.
A three team deal between the A's Raise and Rangers,
with the biggest name being UH Jerks and pro Far
going from the Rangers to the A's so they have
filled the Jed Lowry sized hole in their infield profile
(07:18):
would project to be the A's second baseman. UH. The
Raise got Amelia Pagan, reliever from the A's UH and
also going back a year past that with the Mariners,
could be a very effective bullpen piece for the Raise
also got Raley Lacy and a twenty nineteen competitive balanced
(07:40):
draft pick. For their part, the Rangers picking up some
prospects in this deal, uh, leftist Kyle Bird and Brock Burke,
righty Yo l Espielle and infielder Eli White, and uh
they get an international they get international slot compensation as
a part of this deal. But again, the big major
(08:02):
league name on the move here is Jerk's profile, So
that pretty much solves the situation there in the infield,
the one gap that they had to fill their UM.
I think there's a big impact here. I think a
profile had stayed in Texas that he would have played
(08:24):
regularly after his breakout season. I think he's certainly got
a downgrade in terms of park factor for his home park,
but an upgrade in terms of the hitters that are
gonna be surrounding him. So I don't really see it
is as much other than a lateral move for pro far,
but I think that there could be a bit of
(08:44):
an uptick for him in just because the skills really
improved more, I think, even than the stats showed, and
despite the fact that yeah, he had a twenty harmer
season ten stolen basis, but I think that he could
have done a little bit better on balls and play,
so that batting average could be quite a bit better
than than where it was this past season in the
(09:05):
two fifties. Uh, you know, maybe another year of development
to attack onto what he did in eighteen. So while
the move itself, I feel like it is overall a
lateral one. I think that the performance level of profile
and eighteen I wouldn't call it the floor, but I
like his chances of improving on that more so than
(09:26):
his chances of regressing. Now, the A has made some
other moves. They've been busy. They re signed Mike Fires
on a two year deal worth fourteen point one million dollars,
that amount coming from Jane McCall Janie McCauley, excuse me
of the Associated Press, although the deal was announced several
days ago, but those figures just came out I think
(09:46):
within the last twenty four hours or so. And Fires
had a good bounce back season, a three point five
six e r A. He did have an eighty four
percent strand rate, so that makes him look like a
candidate for rushing. And we've got some other mixed messages
as well from fires stat line in just the latter
(10:08):
portion of the year that he spent with Oakland, he
had a nice search in his strikeout rate, really the
highest that he's had in quite a while, a twenty
four point five percent strikeout rate. And also, uh, he
has not spent much of his career, if any, averaging
ninety miles an hour or more on his fastball. In fact,
his annual averages have all been below ninety. But during
(10:31):
his time in Oakland, he averaged ninety three miles uh
in terms of average velocity on his fastball. So that
spike and strikeoutse was backed up by a little extra,
little extra velo. Uh. So as of right now, Fires
would be the ace of that ace staff of course. Uh.
You know, it was a great story in in terms
(10:54):
of the a's being far far better than I think
just about anybody expected. But they've got a lot of questions,
a lot of question marks in that rotation. So Fires
is one piece, uh, an interesting bit of reporting that's
come out alongside uh this, this Fire's resigning uh and
(11:15):
I've seen this pop up in a couple of different places.
The Haze's Lizardo is expected to be in the rotation
at some point in not necessarily uh off of coming
outspurin training for for opening day, but not completely ruled
out either, and he could be joining early even if
he isn't with the team at the very very outset
(11:38):
of the regular season, so that's pretty exciting. But even
if you have you do have Fires, and even if
you have Luzardo at some point early on, still a
lot of question marks there with that's rotation. However, the bullpen,
which was a real strengthen got even a little bit
better with the signing of Joachim Storia on a to
(12:00):
year deal, actually a little bigger of a deal that
Fires got a two year deal worth fifteen million, and
uh sorry, you had a very nice season mostly with
the White Sox that went from the White Sox to
the Brewers. Once with the Brewers then he didn't get
to sniff the knife ending with the bullpen depth that
they have. But with the White Sox he saves sixteen games,
(12:22):
had a really nice bounce back season. His swinging strike
rate of fourteen four percent was a career high for
Joachim Sarria. However, the strikeout rate, which was still very good,
maybe not commensurate with a whiff rate that that was
that high, a near elite whiff rate, because he also
(12:43):
set a career high for swing rate on pitches in
the zone, which meant that he got fewer called strikes.
So all said, I mean, maybe he regresses a bit
in the whiff rate, maybe he gets a few more
called strikes. I mean, this is still somebody who while
he almost certainly is not going to get very many
safe chances, uh, that he could be one of the
(13:06):
more valuable nonclosures among relievers because he will give you
a good strikeout rate, if not quite elite, and just
should be effective all around. Maybe get the occasional safe
chance here and there would be a very very good
player to own for holds leagues. And I got a
bunch more signings and moves here. Uh, this is certainly
(13:27):
not one of the bigger ones, but I'm gonna slot
it in here because there's a bit of an a's
connection with this, and that is that the Cubs have
signed former A Kendall Graveman to a one year deal
that is initially worth five thousand dollars. But should Graveman
make an appearance of the season again he's coming off
a Tommy John surgery, uh, than that contract would escalate
(13:50):
up to two million. And also it includes a team
option for twenty. So the Cubs banking on grave Men
uh not taking too long for his recovery and being effective,
if not this season, then maybe being somebody who can
help them out. But we will not see Kendall Grayman
(14:10):
this year anytime prior to most likely July, probably after
the All Star break, and that would still be a
best case scenario. So not that even at his best
and at his his healthy peak, that Kendall Grayman was
somebody that fantasy owners were knocking each other over for
two uh two roster, but uh, you know somebody who
(14:32):
could be in the Cubs picture in the in the
second half. Annie Ball Sanchez has a new home. He
has agreed on a two year, thirty million dollar deal
with the Nationals. So just when, uh, you know, the
Nationals with with Patrick Corbin that you thought that you know,
they had already done some good work this offseason. Uh,
(14:54):
then they go out and they get Annie Ball Sanchez,
who had uh I know I've said already several times
uh in this uh this program, but yeah, a really
great bounce back season, great comeback season. In so Sanchez
will slop behind Max Scherzer, Patrick Corby and Steven Strassburg.
I mean, that's that's insane quality there for the front
(15:17):
four for the Nationals, and of course that that would
bank on Sanchez being healthy this year and coming close
to replicating what he did last year. He had a
two point eight three e r A. He had a
twenty four point four percent strikeout rate with the Braves,
and key to his success, as it's been analyzed and
commented on and many many places, is the I wouldn't
(15:40):
say introduction of a cutter, but using it more than
just sort of nominally, which he had the previous couple
of years, became a major part of his arsenal this year,
and he achieved, according to fan Graphs, the fourth highest
pitch value on his cutter of any picture in the
major leagues this past season. So that was an absolute
(16:01):
key to his success. He was one of the very
best pictures in terms of limiting hard contact in inducing
soft contact. So it was not only that Sanchez was
able to strike batters out, but the contact that he
did allow was a very poor quality. So it was
really just a very good overall season. Rannie Ball Sanchez,
and now he is a Washington National. Uh A former National,
(16:24):
Daniel Murphy Uh. He signed on with Colorado Rocki's two
year deal worth twenty four million dollars with the mutual
option for the season, and it was a season that
it was definitely not one of his best years in
recent memory for Murphy, not terrible. UH. Played games with
(16:46):
the Nationals and with the Cubs bat at so he's
been consistently somebody that who could hit hit for average.
He continued to do that, continue to make a lot
of contact, hit twelve home runs, which again that doesn't
look two out of line with the recent power surge
in his careers, he's gotten more launch ankle oriented. But Murphy,
(17:08):
before he was a home run hitter, was always a
pretty good doubles hitter. He only hit fifteen doubles in
those games this year between the Gnats and the Cubs. UH.
And behind that, behind that lower isolated power, behind that
lower doubles rate was a hard contact rate that's really poor.
(17:28):
I mean, it's just I'm not gonna miss words, that's
really poor. Um And especially when you consider that this
year that across the board, hard contact rates went up
four or five percent points. I mean not literally across
the board, of course, but just overall. UM and There's
been lots of writing and theorizing about that, which I'm
not going to dig into here, but you know, basically,
(17:51):
whether the bar was raised uh in terms of the
amount of hard contact that was made. Murphy took a
huge step back in that regard, and it showed up
in his doubles rate in his EYESO and a little
bit in the batting average to UH doesn't strike out much,
but Murphy's babita where it was verging on normal. And
(18:12):
this is a guy that with line drive tendencies UH
and hitting the ball pretty hard. It's usually somebody who's
pretty good UH and well above average on on balls
and play. So obviously going to course field could correct
that all by itself. UH. That is obviously a notoriously
great place to hit, and not just for home runs
(18:33):
but for getting day sits on balls and play. But
a lot of questions here for Dania Murphy, whether he
can stay healthy, whether he is now firmly in a
decline phase of his career, or whether he can bounce back,
play more, accumulate more plate appearances, UH, compile more stats
and maybe improven and rebound a bit in terms of
(18:54):
his power production. We certainly would like to see that
trend from Dominico sand Hannah. He has a new home.
The Brewers traded Santana to the Brewer. I'm sorry to
the Mariners. Bruce trade Santana to the Mariners were Ben
Gamble and right handed relief prospect Noah Zavulus, and uh,
Santana certainly an upgrade for him, where he spent the
(19:17):
whole season either in the minors or on the major
league roster, really scrapping for playing time, and his production
did not merit him getting more playing time than what
he got. So after a breakout season seventeen and very
very disappointing season for Santana and one that was really
(19:37):
foreshadowed by the signings of Christian Yelloch and Lorenzo Caine.
But those of us, you know, like myself who drafted
him this past year figured somehow, some way the talent
would win out, that those power skills were gonna earn
him playing time, whether it was taking away from Ryan
Braun or getting traded. Uh, none of that, you know,
(19:59):
none of that trade inspired during the season. So now
he does get a fresh start with the Mariners, where
unless he really fails to rebound at all, Uh, Santana
should get plenty of playing time or unless he gets flipped,
which I don't I don't think that's going to happen.
Gamble probably becomes like a fourth outfielder for for the Brewers.
So not a whole lot of fantasy value there. On
(20:21):
the last show, I talked about the Angels signing Matt Harvey.
They have continued the rotation makeover this past week. They
signed Trevor Cahill for one season at nine million dollars SOK.
Hill lots of injury problems over the years, but the
last few years when he's been healthy, he's been really good. Uh,
(20:42):
So that could be a big, big ad for the Angels. Uh.
The couple of bullpen moves here. Uh. The Cardinals signed
Andrew Miller. This one had been sort of rumored for
a while. Cardinals been interested in Miller, interested in Zach Britton,
so that was kind of hanging out there for a while.
They finally did sign Miller for two years at million
(21:03):
dollars plus vesting option. And the initial reports on this
deal or that Miller is going to be used in
high leverage situations, so basically the same vague a morphous
language that had been used for Miller when he was
with the with the Indians, Uh. The difference here being that,
(21:24):
I think, first of all, given the amount of the
contract and given who is in that Cardinals bullpen, I
think that if we can analogize maybe with the the
Indian situation where he just came from, where he stepped
in for Cody Allen at times, or you know, uh,
late in the season after the acquisition of Brad Hand,
you sort of had a three headed late ending monster there.
(21:48):
But but Miller really firmly is sort of the tertiary
position with the Indians. I think that he may stand
a chance to get the bulk of the saves with
the Cardinals, And it really remains to be seen and
of course how that's actually going to play out. But
in a way, I think this is probably better news
for Jordan's Hicks. And I'm just totally speculating here, but
(22:09):
just my perception of it is this is actually a
better sort of forecast for Jordan Hicks then if they
the Cardinals had signed Zack Britton, where Brittain has not.
I mean, he's been hurt a lot the last couple
of years, but what he's been healthy he's been the
guy in Baltimore. He's not been one to sort of
get yo yo back and forth. Now, of course that
(22:31):
status changed during the brief time that he was with
the Yankees, but with Miller being used in different types
of situations and different types of roles, and with the
early quotes coming out of the Cardinals organization sort of
indicating again in a very strang vague way that it's
going to be status quo for Andrew Miller, that maybe
(22:51):
he and and Jordan's Hicks forms some kind of like
closer tandem. So maybe we'll learn more between now and
spring training, or during bring training or at some point
before a draft day. But I think Jordan Hicks still
holds onto a little little bit of value here. The
Dodgers added some much much needed bullpen depth by signing
(23:12):
Joe Kelly to a three year deal worth twenty one
million that also includes a team option for two season.
Kelly a very up and down season with the Red Sox.
Uh So it's certainly it's an upgrade for the Dodgers bullpen.
And yet, if you were thinking of the Dodgers needing
(23:33):
to add somebody who could really be reliable in the
seventh three eighth inning. I'm not confident that Joe Kelly
is necessarily that guy, but he does add some not
only some depth, but but some insurance for Kenley Jansen
and uh, you know, maybe it can be a better season.
And it wasn't an all around terrible season for Kelly,
and he finished very strong, but the consistency wasn't really there.
(23:57):
So it's he's certainly no slam dunk for or value
even in holds leagues as it stands coming off of
and a little bit of a blow for bullpen depth
for the Astros. Joe Smith underwent surgery for a ruptured achilles.
He's now going to be out for six to eight months,
so he's going to miss a large large portion of
(24:18):
the season. Smith wasn't really looking necessarily to have a
whole lot of value, But I do see that that
Astros situation, based on the way that A. J. Hinch
has managed it and by the the different options that
they have there, I could see that that one being
a bit fluid in and Smith maybe being a part
(24:41):
of the ninth inning mixed theoretically had this not happened,
but it did happen, He's gonna miss the bulk of
the season. Uh, so that's that's a tough blow for
the Astros. The Brewers have signed Corey Spangenberg to a
one year deal. It's a split contract, so h he
will get one point two million, but only if he
(25:02):
makes the major league roster as it stands right now,
and obviously there's a lot of off season left. There's
a lot of hot stove action that that could still happen.
I do see that the Brewers would be, you know,
candidates to make a few more moves, but as it stands,
I mean, Spanderberg would be kind of an appropriate player
(25:22):
to be as a stop gap at second base because
I don't think that Keston here is probably that far
off for being major league ready. And uh, I was
reading a report on MLB dot com that said that
basically the Brewer strategy here, their intention is to get
a stop gap option, uh and not to go out
and spend big to fill second base. And uh, Spanierberg
(25:47):
is really it's a he's a good fit there because
he could fill that that voided second base or be
a part of a solution maybe with Aeron on Perez
until Here is ready and then uh, if hera is
ready at some point this season. Spanserberg's versatile enough that
you can play a little bit of third, you can
play in the outfield. So h you know you've had
(26:10):
that kind of Swiss army knife type player there, you know,
like uh, you know, like an aeran on Perez and uh,
you know you saw the shifting around, uh in terms
of positions that the Birds did last year, um with
Travis Shapling second base just as an example. So Spanserberg
fits that picture really nicely and didn't have a very
good season, but there is some potential there, especially if
(26:35):
playing time comes along, and especially with him being in
a much much better hitting environment, that maybe he could
produce around fifteen home runs being double digits and steals. Uh.
He does strike out a lot, but he struck out
a lot, particularly in eighteen, so if he can get
back to where he was, uh, you know, maybe there's
(26:57):
like fifteen fifteen potential there for for Corey Spanderberg. Of course,
that could all just go down to the the drade if
the Brewers go out inside somebody else to place second base.
But it's a kind of intriguing situation. And then finally,
last note that I have here, CC Sabathia had angio
plastic and excuse me angio plasti earlier this month. However,
he is expected to be ready for spring training, according
(27:20):
to a report from the athletics Ken Rosenthal. So uh
on all, uh you know, a good outlook there for
Sabathia who uh you know, happened to catch a blockage
and had the had the necessary procedure done and I
shouldn't miss any time. So good news on the hole
there for for CC Sabathia. So on that final note
(27:44):
of this final show eighteen and again, as I mentioned
earlier in the show, uh, this is my last Fantasy
Baseball Hour. Uh so uh, I just want to thank
everybody who has listened, whether this is your first time
or whether you've been listening since the show started just
under two years ago. And it's hard for me to
believe that it's been two years already. It's it's flown
(28:05):
by um. So, first of all, I just want to
think all of you who have who have listened, uh
and have downloaded or listened live on on F and
T S Y. I really I have been so happy
and and and pleasantly surprised by uh how many people
have have two did to the show, which again it's
(28:26):
it's not really been around that long. So thank you
to all of you who who have listened to the show. Uh.
Also special thanks to Mike Cardono who made this happen. UM.
So I appreciate the opportunity Mike, UM, I do. At
this point, a little under two years ago, I had
recently left CBS Sports dot Com, where I've been a
(28:49):
part of the team on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast
and it was a great group of folks told to
get my feet wet with Um and Grant. I wind
up doing it, and get wind up getting I feet
more than than wetter or more than just my feet.
I'm really botching the the analogy here, but uh, you know,
I wound up doing that that podcast for for more
(29:11):
than six years. But um, Mike Cardino gave the opportunity
to strike out on my own here with my own show,
which was something I really wanted to try, and I
appreciate that opportunity. And this also, the show wouldn't have
happened without Nando Dafino. Uh. And not just because he
was featured here on the show on Nando Thursdays for
for a long time, but he was really instrumental in
(29:33):
just helping to make this show even happen. Um, I
want to thank my producer, Young Luciano, who's been fantastic,
and there have been a few people who produced the show.
You instin done a great job. And I also want
to give a shout out to Mike Florio, one of
the former UH producers who occasionally popped onto the show
and uh uh gave me some great provide some great
(29:55):
analysis on the show. And um also to Matt Modica,
who was a regular on the show uh for for
much of the show's run. And uh, I certainly don't
want to I could be here all day long rattling
off the names of guests, several of whom were on regularly,
(30:17):
and and the show evolved because when the show started
it was the fan Rag Fantasy Baseball Show, and so
I had regularly had people on like Greg Jewett and
Jim Finch and Jessica klein Schmidt who were writers for
fan Rag. John Hayman would periodically make appearances. Uh. It
was all a group of fan Rag sports. And then
(30:38):
since then, UM, you know, I've had just a dream
roster of guests who have come on whether it's been
one time or or multiple times. Uh and I think
everyone who has taken the time to be on the show,
and uh and and make it what it's been. And
uh I if you had told me two years ago
(30:59):
and give me a roster of the people who have
taken the time to be on this show, I wouldn't
have believed it. I wouldn't believed it. So it's in
many ways doing the show has been a dream come true.
So uh with that said, thank you again to those
of you who have who have listened for all these
months or two years even uh So uh I look
(31:21):
forward to telling you on Twitter what my plans are
for twy and I can't say quite yet, but dude,
check it out at I'll know your bb on Twitter.
I'll be keeping you posted there. In the meantime, Happy
New Year, everybody, best wishes to you and good luck
in the coming season. Take care of everyone.
You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Ladies and
gentlemen to the Fantasy Baseball with Welcome everybody. This is
(00:27):
the Fantasy Baseball Hour. I'm gonna post alm melk your hope.
You had a great holiday. Thank you so much for
tuning in. So this will be the last show foren
But it's also going to be the last Fantasy Baseball
Hour that I am doing period. Uh, this is it.
(00:48):
This is the the end of the road for me, uh,
for the Fantasy Baseball Hour. So I've got a lot
of things that I'm excited about. Fort have a couple
of new things lined up. Uh, They're gonna make it
very difficult for me to continue doing this show. So
that is why this is gonna be the last one
(01:09):
for me. So anyways, I just want to thank everybody
for listening, and I'll be talking more about this at
the at the end of the show. But there is
a lot to get to. There's a lot to talk about.
The hot stove is not really cooled off, even during
the holidays, so I'm just going to get right to it.
(01:29):
And we had a couple of big deals since the
last show. First of all, we had the blockbuster between
the Reds and the Dodgers. Uh So, Y'asiel Puig, Matt Kemp,
Alex Wood, and cow Farmer all heading to Cincinnati going
the other way to l A. Homer Bailey, Josiah Gray
uh right handed right handed pitching prospect, and Jeter downs
(01:54):
Uh second base prospect, respectively. Downs the number was the
number eight prospect in the Red system according to fan graphs,
and Gray number thirteen in the Red system. So those
two prospects going to l A. Homer Bailey already cut
loose by the Dodgers. Uh So, that was a foregone conclusion.
(02:15):
If he hadn't been dealt, the Reads most likely would
have let Homer Bailey go. So this provides a little
bit of luxury tax relief for the Dodgers and clears
some log jams that they had as well in the
outfield and in the rotation, although they're still uh well,
first of all, in the rotation, not even clear exactly
(02:38):
where there's going to be room for everybody that's still there. Uh.
Kent my eta has been. I've seen a couple different
places projected as the number five starter, but that would
block cross Stripling and Julio urius, So it's probably gonna
be barring other moves, sort of the status quo for
the Dodgers rotation that you're going to have. You know, first,
(02:58):
I have some players that are that are jury pro prone,
players that will probably jockey back and forth between the
rotation and the bullpen and in the case of strippling
and Urius, between the pitching staff whatever role it is,
and perhaps triple A. So it's actually a great term
(03:19):
for this. Uh Nick Pollock, who has been a guest
of the show several times. You know him from picture
list and rhotographs. Uh Nick has a great term for
this dodgerritis. So the pictures towards the back end potentially
of that rotation I think could still suffer from some
some dodgyritis. On the other hand, Alex Wood might have
found his cure going to Cincinnati. He would seem to
(03:42):
be health permitting a fixture in that Red's rotation, which
now looks a bit more solid than it did going
into the off season. Uh So you still you've got
Louis Castillo there, uh and Anthony DeSclafani, who's not been
able to stay healthy. But you've got those two pictures
and then in addition, you've got Tana Roark who was
(04:02):
recently acquired from the Nationals, and now Alex would So
that's your projected front four, not necessarily in that order
in Cincinnati, and then maybe a little bit of a
fifth starter backlog as well. Tyler Maylie and Cody Reid
I would think would be the lead contenders for that
(04:23):
final spot. Uh but uh, you know, you've got certainly
a more solid front four there and much more depth
and um in terms of the hitters going to Cincinnati,
of course, Puig is going to be the one who's
clearly going to be an everyday player for them. Not
(04:43):
clear what the Reds are going to do in terms
of filling the gap defensively left by Billy Hamilton's uh, Puig,
maybe part of that center field pick picture. Maybe it's
Scot Shoveler who has played some center field, UM, maybe
Nick sends All perhaps so that one is very much
still up in the air. But whether it's whatever position
(05:07):
in the outfield it is, I would expect that Puig
would be pretty much an everyday player for the Reds.
Mat kep that role that is clear, as has been
the case for him the last couple of seasons. So uh,
I know a lot of people are worried about Jesse
Winker and how much playing time he would get. To me,
it would seem to be an upset if Winker were
(05:29):
benched to make room for Kemp, But time we'll tell
with that. And then Kyle Farmer, he will I would
think it best to be a backup to Tucker Barnhardt.
Probably he'll be jockeying back and forth between the miners
and the majors. So uh, that's pretty much the the
picture there in terms of the impact for the Reds.
(05:50):
And now going back to the Dodgers, talked about their rotation,
but their outfield situation. Of course, you know they mixed
and matched all year, and you have players like Cody
Bellinger Chris Taylor who could play the infield. On the outfield,
I would think that they both probably barring other moves,
would see some time in center field. But the big
I think I haven't I've yet to even get to
(06:11):
maybe the biggest impact of this trade, which is that
it very firmly does put the Dodgers in the Bryce
Harper picture. And we haven't, of course heard anything definitive
there yet. But that would seem to be part of
the motivation for the Dodgers to make this deal, and
they certainly now have a spot where they could play
(06:32):
Bryce Harper. As of right now, you probably would have
an outfield of Jack Peterson and maybe a tandem of
Bellinger and Taylor and center and Alex Verdugo. I think
Verdugo is probably the one who's most on the bubble
here if they were to go for Harper or make
some sort of move, but that's gonna be an interesting situation.
(06:54):
So that was one big trade that happened in the
in the past week. The other one not quite the
same magnitude, although it did involve a lot of players.
A three team deal between the A's Raise and Rangers,
with the biggest name being UH Jerks and pro Far
going from the Rangers to the A's so they have
filled the Jed Lowry sized hole in their infield profile
(07:18):
would project to be the A's second baseman. UH. The
Raise got Amelia Pagan, reliever from the A's UH and
also going back a year past that with the Mariners,
could be a very effective bullpen piece for the Raise
also got Raley Lacy and a twenty nineteen competitive balanced
(07:40):
draft pick. For their part, the Rangers picking up some
prospects in this deal, uh, leftist Kyle Bird and Brock Burke,
righty Yo l Espielle and infielder Eli White, and uh
they get an international they get international slot compensation as
a part of this deal. But again, the big major
(08:02):
league name on the move here is Jerk's profile, So
that pretty much solves the situation there in the infield,
the one gap that they had to fill their UM.
I think there's a big impact here. I think a
profile had stayed in Texas that he would have played
(08:24):
regularly after his breakout season. I think he's certainly got
a downgrade in terms of park factor for his home park,
but an upgrade in terms of the hitters that are
gonna be surrounding him. So I don't really see it
is as much other than a lateral move for pro far,
but I think that there could be a bit of
(08:44):
an uptick for him in just because the skills really
improved more, I think, even than the stats showed, and
despite the fact that yeah, he had a twenty harmer
season ten stolen basis, but I think that he could
have done a little bit better on balls and play,
so that batting average could be quite a bit better
than than where it was this past season in the
(09:05):
two fifties. Uh, you know, maybe another year of development
to attack onto what he did in eighteen. So while
the move itself, I feel like it is overall a
lateral one. I think that the performance level of profile
and eighteen I wouldn't call it the floor, but I
like his chances of improving on that more so than
(09:26):
his chances of regressing. Now, the A has made some
other moves. They've been busy. They re signed Mike Fires
on a two year deal worth fourteen point one million dollars,
that amount coming from Jane McCall Janie McCauley, excuse me
of the Associated Press, although the deal was announced several
days ago, but those figures just came out I think
(09:46):
within the last twenty four hours or so. And Fires
had a good bounce back season, a three point five
six e r A. He did have an eighty four
percent strand rate, so that makes him look like a
candidate for rushing. And we've got some other mixed messages
as well from fires stat line in just the latter
(10:08):
portion of the year that he spent with Oakland, he
had a nice search in his strikeout rate, really the
highest that he's had in quite a while, a twenty
four point five percent strikeout rate. And also, uh, he
has not spent much of his career, if any, averaging
ninety miles an hour or more on his fastball. In fact,
his annual averages have all been below ninety. But during
(10:31):
his time in Oakland, he averaged ninety three miles uh
in terms of average velocity on his fastball. So that
spike and strikeoutse was backed up by a little extra,
little extra velo. Uh. So as of right now, Fires
would be the ace of that ace staff of course. Uh.
You know, it was a great story in in terms
(10:54):
of the a's being far far better than I think
just about anybody expected. But they've got a lot of questions,
a lot of question marks in that rotation. So Fires
is one piece, uh, an interesting bit of reporting that's
come out alongside uh this, this Fire's resigning uh and
(11:15):
I've seen this pop up in a couple of different places.
The Haze's Lizardo is expected to be in the rotation
at some point in not necessarily uh off of coming
outspurin training for for opening day, but not completely ruled
out either, and he could be joining early even if
he isn't with the team at the very very outset
(11:38):
of the regular season, so that's pretty exciting. But even
if you have you do have Fires, and even if
you have Luzardo at some point early on, still a
lot of question marks there with that's rotation. However, the bullpen,
which was a real strengthen got even a little bit
better with the signing of Joachim Storia on a to
(12:00):
year deal, actually a little bigger of a deal that
Fires got a two year deal worth fifteen million, and
uh sorry, you had a very nice season mostly with
the White Sox that went from the White Sox to
the Brewers. Once with the Brewers then he didn't get
to sniff the knife ending with the bullpen depth that
they have. But with the White Sox he saves sixteen games,
(12:22):
had a really nice bounce back season. His swinging strike
rate of fourteen four percent was a career high for
Joachim Sarria. However, the strikeout rate, which was still very good,
maybe not commensurate with a whiff rate that that was
that high, a near elite whiff rate, because he also
(12:43):
set a career high for swing rate on pitches in
the zone, which meant that he got fewer called strikes.
So all said, I mean, maybe he regresses a bit
in the whiff rate, maybe he gets a few more
called strikes. I mean, this is still somebody who while
he almost certainly is not going to get very many
safe chances, uh, that he could be one of the
(13:06):
more valuable nonclosures among relievers because he will give you
a good strikeout rate, if not quite elite, and just
should be effective all around. Maybe get the occasional safe
chance here and there would be a very very good
player to own for holds leagues. And I got a
bunch more signings and moves here. Uh, this is certainly
(13:27):
not one of the bigger ones, but I'm gonna slot
it in here because there's a bit of an a's
connection with this, and that is that the Cubs have
signed former A Kendall Graveman to a one year deal
that is initially worth five thousand dollars. But should Graveman
make an appearance of the season again he's coming off
a Tommy John surgery, uh, than that contract would escalate
(13:50):
up to two million. And also it includes a team
option for twenty. So the Cubs banking on grave Men
uh not taking too long for his recovery and being effective,
if not this season, then maybe being somebody who can
help them out. But we will not see Kendall Grayman
(14:10):
this year anytime prior to most likely July, probably after
the All Star break, and that would still be a
best case scenario. So not that even at his best
and at his his healthy peak, that Kendall Grayman was
somebody that fantasy owners were knocking each other over for
two uh two roster, but uh, you know somebody who
(14:32):
could be in the Cubs picture in the in the
second half. Annie Ball Sanchez has a new home. He
has agreed on a two year, thirty million dollar deal
with the Nationals. So just when, uh, you know, the
Nationals with with Patrick Corbin that you thought that you know,
they had already done some good work this offseason. Uh,
(14:54):
then they go out and they get Annie Ball Sanchez,
who had uh I know I've said already several times
uh in this uh this program, but yeah, a really
great bounce back season, great comeback season. In so Sanchez
will slop behind Max Scherzer, Patrick Corby and Steven Strassburg.
I mean, that's that's insane quality there for the front
(15:17):
four for the Nationals, and of course that that would
bank on Sanchez being healthy this year and coming close
to replicating what he did last year. He had a
two point eight three e r A. He had a
twenty four point four percent strikeout rate with the Braves,
and key to his success, as it's been analyzed and
commented on and many many places, is the I wouldn't
(15:40):
say introduction of a cutter, but using it more than
just sort of nominally, which he had the previous couple
of years, became a major part of his arsenal this year,
and he achieved, according to fan Graphs, the fourth highest
pitch value on his cutter of any picture in the
major leagues this past season. So that was an absolute
(16:01):
key to his success. He was one of the very
best pictures in terms of limiting hard contact in inducing
soft contact. So it was not only that Sanchez was
able to strike batters out, but the contact that he
did allow was a very poor quality. So it was
really just a very good overall season. Rannie Ball Sanchez,
and now he is a Washington National. Uh A former National,
(16:24):
Daniel Murphy Uh. He signed on with Colorado Rocki's two
year deal worth twenty four million dollars with the mutual
option for the season, and it was a season that
it was definitely not one of his best years in
recent memory for Murphy, not terrible. UH. Played games with
(16:46):
the Nationals and with the Cubs bat at so he's
been consistently somebody that who could hit hit for average.
He continued to do that, continue to make a lot
of contact, hit twelve home runs, which again that doesn't
look two out of line with the recent power surge
in his careers, he's gotten more launch ankle oriented. But Murphy,
(17:08):
before he was a home run hitter, was always a
pretty good doubles hitter. He only hit fifteen doubles in
those games this year between the Gnats and the Cubs. UH.
And behind that, behind that lower isolated power, behind that
lower doubles rate was a hard contact rate that's really poor.
(17:28):
I mean, it's just I'm not gonna miss words, that's
really poor. Um And especially when you consider that this
year that across the board, hard contact rates went up
four or five percent points. I mean not literally across
the board, of course, but just overall. UM and There's
been lots of writing and theorizing about that, which I'm
not going to dig into here, but you know, basically,
(17:51):
whether the bar was raised uh in terms of the
amount of hard contact that was made. Murphy took a
huge step back in that regard, and it showed up
in his doubles rate in his EYESO and a little
bit in the batting average to UH doesn't strike out much,
but Murphy's babita where it was verging on normal. And
(18:12):
this is a guy that with line drive tendencies UH
and hitting the ball pretty hard. It's usually somebody who's
pretty good UH and well above average on on balls
and play. So obviously going to course field could correct
that all by itself. UH. That is obviously a notoriously
great place to hit, and not just for home runs
(18:33):
but for getting day sits on balls and play. But
a lot of questions here for Dania Murphy, whether he
can stay healthy, whether he is now firmly in a
decline phase of his career, or whether he can bounce back,
play more, accumulate more plate appearances, UH, compile more stats
and maybe improven and rebound a bit in terms of
(18:54):
his power production. We certainly would like to see that
trend from Dominico sand Hannah. He has a new home.
The Brewers traded Santana to the Brewer. I'm sorry to
the Mariners. Bruce trade Santana to the Mariners were Ben
Gamble and right handed relief prospect Noah Zavulus, and uh,
Santana certainly an upgrade for him, where he spent the
(19:17):
whole season either in the minors or on the major
league roster, really scrapping for playing time, and his production
did not merit him getting more playing time than what
he got. So after a breakout season seventeen and very
very disappointing season for Santana and one that was really
(19:37):
foreshadowed by the signings of Christian Yelloch and Lorenzo Caine.
But those of us, you know, like myself who drafted
him this past year figured somehow, some way the talent
would win out, that those power skills were gonna earn
him playing time, whether it was taking away from Ryan
Braun or getting traded. Uh, none of that, you know,
(19:59):
none of that trade inspired during the season. So now
he does get a fresh start with the Mariners, where
unless he really fails to rebound at all, Uh, Santana
should get plenty of playing time or unless he gets flipped,
which I don't I don't think that's going to happen.
Gamble probably becomes like a fourth outfielder for for the Brewers.
So not a whole lot of fantasy value there. On
(20:21):
the last show, I talked about the Angels signing Matt Harvey.
They have continued the rotation makeover this past week. They
signed Trevor Cahill for one season at nine million dollars SOK.
Hill lots of injury problems over the years, but the
last few years when he's been healthy, he's been really good. Uh,
(20:42):
So that could be a big, big ad for the Angels. Uh.
The couple of bullpen moves here. Uh. The Cardinals signed
Andrew Miller. This one had been sort of rumored for
a while. Cardinals been interested in Miller, interested in Zach Britton,
so that was kind of hanging out there for a while.
They finally did sign Miller for two years at million
(21:03):
dollars plus vesting option. And the initial reports on this
deal or that Miller is going to be used in
high leverage situations, so basically the same vague a morphous
language that had been used for Miller when he was
with the with the Indians, Uh. The difference here being that,
(21:24):
I think, first of all, given the amount of the
contract and given who is in that Cardinals bullpen, I
think that if we can analogize maybe with the the
Indian situation where he just came from, where he stepped
in for Cody Allen at times, or you know, uh,
late in the season after the acquisition of Brad Hand,
you sort of had a three headed late ending monster there.
(21:48):
But but Miller really firmly is sort of the tertiary
position with the Indians. I think that he may stand
a chance to get the bulk of the saves with
the Cardinals, And it really remains to be seen and
of course how that's actually going to play out. But
in a way, I think this is probably better news
for Jordan's Hicks. And I'm just totally speculating here, but
(22:09):
just my perception of it is this is actually a
better sort of forecast for Jordan Hicks then if they
the Cardinals had signed Zack Britton, where Brittain has not.
I mean, he's been hurt a lot the last couple
of years, but what he's been healthy he's been the
guy in Baltimore. He's not been one to sort of
get yo yo back and forth. Now, of course that
(22:31):
status changed during the brief time that he was with
the Yankees, but with Miller being used in different types
of situations and different types of roles, and with the
early quotes coming out of the Cardinals organization sort of
indicating again in a very strang vague way that it's
going to be status quo for Andrew Miller, that maybe
(22:51):
he and and Jordan's Hicks forms some kind of like
closer tandem. So maybe we'll learn more between now and
spring training, or during bring training or at some point
before a draft day. But I think Jordan Hicks still
holds onto a little little bit of value here. The
Dodgers added some much much needed bullpen depth by signing
(23:12):
Joe Kelly to a three year deal worth twenty one
million that also includes a team option for two season.
Kelly a very up and down season with the Red Sox.
Uh So it's certainly it's an upgrade for the Dodgers bullpen.
And yet, if you were thinking of the Dodgers needing
(23:33):
to add somebody who could really be reliable in the
seventh three eighth inning. I'm not confident that Joe Kelly
is necessarily that guy, but he does add some not
only some depth, but but some insurance for Kenley Jansen
and uh, you know, maybe it can be a better season.
And it wasn't an all around terrible season for Kelly,
and he finished very strong, but the consistency wasn't really there.
(23:57):
So it's he's certainly no slam dunk for or value
even in holds leagues as it stands coming off of
and a little bit of a blow for bullpen depth
for the Astros. Joe Smith underwent surgery for a ruptured achilles.
He's now going to be out for six to eight months,
so he's going to miss a large large portion of
(24:18):
the season. Smith wasn't really looking necessarily to have a
whole lot of value, But I do see that that
Astros situation, based on the way that A. J. Hinch
has managed it and by the the different options that
they have there, I could see that that one being
a bit fluid in and Smith maybe being a part
(24:41):
of the ninth inning mixed theoretically had this not happened,
but it did happen, He's gonna miss the bulk of
the season. Uh, so that's that's a tough blow for
the Astros. The Brewers have signed Corey Spangenberg to a
one year deal. It's a split contract, so h he
will get one point two million, but only if he
(25:02):
makes the major league roster as it stands right now,
and obviously there's a lot of off season left. There's
a lot of hot stove action that that could still happen.
I do see that the Brewers would be, you know,
candidates to make a few more moves, but as it stands,
I mean, Spanderberg would be kind of an appropriate player
(25:22):
to be as a stop gap at second base because
I don't think that Keston here is probably that far
off for being major league ready. And uh, I was
reading a report on MLB dot com that said that
basically the Brewer strategy here, their intention is to get
a stop gap option, uh and not to go out
and spend big to fill second base. And uh, Spanierberg
(25:47):
is really it's a he's a good fit there because
he could fill that that voided second base or be
a part of a solution maybe with Aeron on Perez
until Here is ready and then uh, if hera is
ready at some point this season. Spanserberg's versatile enough that
you can play a little bit of third, you can
play in the outfield. So h you know you've had
(26:10):
that kind of Swiss army knife type player there, you know,
like uh, you know, like an aeran on Perez and uh,
you know you saw the shifting around, uh in terms
of positions that the Birds did last year, um with
Travis Shapling second base just as an example. So Spanserberg
fits that picture really nicely and didn't have a very
good season, but there is some potential there, especially if
(26:35):
playing time comes along, and especially with him being in
a much much better hitting environment, that maybe he could
produce around fifteen home runs being double digits and steals. Uh.
He does strike out a lot, but he struck out
a lot, particularly in eighteen, so if he can get
back to where he was, uh, you know, maybe there's
(26:57):
like fifteen fifteen potential there for for Corey Spanderberg. Of course,
that could all just go down to the the drade if
the Brewers go out inside somebody else to place second base.
But it's a kind of intriguing situation. And then finally,
last note that I have here, CC Sabathia had angio
plastic and excuse me angio plasti earlier this month. However,
he is expected to be ready for spring training, according
(27:20):
to a report from the athletics Ken Rosenthal. So uh
on all, uh you know, a good outlook there for
Sabathia who uh you know, happened to catch a blockage
and had the had the necessary procedure done and I
shouldn't miss any time. So good news on the hole
there for for CC Sabathia. So on that final note
(27:44):
of this final show eighteen and again, as I mentioned
earlier in the show, uh, this is my last Fantasy
Baseball Hour. Uh so uh, I just want to thank
everybody who has listened, whether this is your first time
or whether you've been listening since the show started just
under two years ago. And it's hard for me to
believe that it's been two years already. It's it's flown
(28:05):
by um. So, first of all, I just want to
think all of you who have who have listened, uh
and have downloaded or listened live on on F and
T S Y. I really I have been so happy
and and and pleasantly surprised by uh how many people
have have two did to the show, which again it's
(28:26):
it's not really been around that long. So thank you
to all of you who who have listened to the show. Uh.
Also special thanks to Mike Cardono who made this happen. UM.
So I appreciate the opportunity Mike, UM, I do. At
this point, a little under two years ago, I had
recently left CBS Sports dot Com, where I've been a
(28:49):
part of the team on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast
and it was a great group of folks told to
get my feet wet with Um and Grant. I wind
up doing it, and get wind up getting I feet
more than than wetter or more than just my feet.
I'm really botching the the analogy here, but uh, you know,
I wound up doing that that podcast for for more
(29:11):
than six years. But um, Mike Cardino gave the opportunity
to strike out on my own here with my own show,
which was something I really wanted to try, and I
appreciate that opportunity. And this also, the show wouldn't have
happened without Nando Dafino. Uh. And not just because he
was featured here on the show on Nando Thursdays for
for a long time, but he was really instrumental in
(29:33):
just helping to make this show even happen. Um, I
want to thank my producer, Young Luciano, who's been fantastic,
and there have been a few people who produced the show.
You instin done a great job. And I also want
to give a shout out to Mike Florio, one of
the former UH producers who occasionally popped onto the show
and uh uh gave me some great provide some great
(29:55):
analysis on the show. And um also to Matt Modica,
who was a regular on the show uh for for
much of the show's run. And uh, I certainly don't
want to I could be here all day long rattling
off the names of guests, several of whom were on regularly,
(30:17):
and and the show evolved because when the show started
it was the fan Rag Fantasy Baseball Show, and so
I had regularly had people on like Greg Jewett and
Jim Finch and Jessica klein Schmidt who were writers for
fan Rag. John Hayman would periodically make appearances. Uh. It
was all a group of fan Rag sports. And then
(30:38):
since then, UM, you know, I've had just a dream
roster of guests who have come on whether it's been
one time or or multiple times. Uh and I think
everyone who has taken the time to be on the show,
and uh and and make it what it's been. And
uh I if you had told me two years ago
(30:59):
and give me a roster of the people who have
taken the time to be on this show, I wouldn't
have believed it. I wouldn't believed it. So it's in
many ways doing the show has been a dream come true.
So uh with that said, thank you again to those
of you who have who have listened for all these
months or two years even uh So uh I look
(31:21):
forward to telling you on Twitter what my plans are
for twy and I can't say quite yet, but dude,
check it out at I'll know your bb on Twitter.
I'll be keeping you posted there. In the meantime, Happy
New Year, everybody, best wishes to you and good luck
in the coming season. Take care of everyone.
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