December 5, 2018 • 33 mins
Al Melchior discussed the Washington Nationals' signing of Patrick Corbin to a 6 year $140 million and how his signing helps to solidify the starting rotation. He also talked about the Mets' acquisition of Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz from the Mariners and explored how it improves the Mets' hitting and bullpen. He also discussed other trade scenarios and names players and their potential destinations. Lastly, Al discusses banning the shift and how it has dropped batting averages as teams began using the shift for defensive purposes. #fntsy #fntsysportsradio #freeagents #tradescenarios #mariners #robinsoncano #edwindiaz #metsbullpen #patrickcorbin #nationals
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Ladies and gentlemen,
to the Fantasy Baseball with Hello everybody, this is the
(00:25):
Fantasy Baseball Hour. I'm your post all melf, you're thank
you so much for listening. And before I get into
the meet of the show, it's a pretty beaty show.
Got some signings, got some Trade's been a busy week. Uh,
some interesting stuff to talk about in terms of the shift. Um,
But before I get into all of that, just a
quick programming note to make sure I get this in here.
(00:48):
Not going to do a show next week. I for
the very first time, I'm going to attend the Major
League Baseball Winter Meetings. I am super excited. Um. It
would the idea of maybe trying to do a show
either from the meetings or maybe immediately after, it's really appealing. Um,
but it's just not gonna fit in. So um, I
(01:08):
will just have to do a Winter Meetings recap the
following week. Uh. So plan right now anyway is to
skip a show next week and then pick right back
up the following week. So just to give you a
warning about that. But again, cannot wait for the Winter meetings.
And I mean there's definitely gonna be things going on
(01:29):
there in terms of player movement, to be sure. Lots
of free agents still to be signed, lots of trades
uh to go down almost to be certain. But it's
been a busy uh week ahead of time, UH, just
the last few days, quite a few things going on. UH.
So the headline I think has to be even though
(01:49):
there's there's some other notable things that have happened last
few days, I think the headline has got to be
the Patrick Corbin signing, uh, first of all, just because
uh of him being one of the top pictures on
the market, but also and also a big deal six
years for a hundred forty million is what's being reported.
(02:10):
But the fact that it was sort of a mystery team,
the Nationals coming kind of out of nowhere when the
Phillies and the Yankees were getting all of the speculation.
Turns out to be the Nationals signing Corbin and creating
a formidable big three along with Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg.
It's gonna be fun. And then at least, as you know,
(02:30):
I've got some Mets moves to talk about coming up shortly.
But yeah, I gotta be interesting. UH, Philly is also
making some moves. The Braves almost certainly will be making
some moves, but the Nationals UH making a very big
one this week with UM signing Patrick Corbin for the
next six years. And I think Corbin maybe the most
(02:52):
interesting picture in baseball. UM. I've been sort of fascinated
with them for the the past I would say the
past year, but I'd say, you know, since early on
in the season. And you know, part of that is
just a breakout season of of massive proportions for Corbin,
(03:13):
but it's also the way he did it. And one
trend that was pretty much major league wide was that
of pictures locating less often in the zone, and so
that really provided a benefit to those pictures that could
get chases. And nobody was wilder among qualified starting pictures.
(03:35):
No one was wilder the Patrick Corbin was, which is
why I think makes this UM, this breakout so fascinating.
Nobody was wilder than Patrick Corbin, and nobody was better
at getting chases. Had the lowest zone percentage among qualified starters,
the highest O swing percentage among qualified starters, and a
(03:57):
lot of that goes to the UH, the slider, which
is UH, you know, big Big Corbyn's bread and butter,
but he made it an even better pitch this year,
got more horizontal movement on it, and then added a
curveball which was sort of a slurve but um, you know,
basically two different varieties of a slider. Um. That was
(04:18):
just devastating for him. And so that's one storyline for him.
Maybe that's really too sort of that are related to
each other, and one is change of arsenal uh and
then related to that, uh, the improved ability to get
chases that just had tremendous uh impact on his uh,
(04:40):
his productivity. So that's one or maybe two storylines that
we can talk about with Corbin. But another one too
that got a lot of discussion, uh fairly early on
the season was the drop in velocity because came out
throwing e in April, averaging in that range and then
(05:04):
really dropping down to for much of the rest of
the season and pretty consistently so in May. So you know,
Corbin started out great and then there was this drop
in velocity. So I know almost certainly I talked about
it on this show, uh certainly discussed it on Twitter.
Don't recall if I don't think I actually wrote about it,
(05:25):
but many others did, and so there was this I
won't say panic, but you know, concerned at the very
least about Patrick Corbin during the month of May, tracking
start to start what was going on with this velocity,
maybe even into June. I mean, this is a big
point of discussion for a chunk of the season, and
yet he just kept on producing, now not quite the
(05:48):
same level that he did it did in April. The
strikeout rate went down a bit, the walk rate did
go up a bit, but he finished the year with
a twenty nine point four percent strikeout rate. So absolutely
nothing to really complain about there. If you set your
expectations higher than that, uh, you know, that's that that's
(06:09):
something you should be able to overcome. It should be
able to get over that. You know, almost a thirty
percent strikeout right, nothing to complain about there, and a
six three point three percent walk rate on the season, which,
again for the wildest starting pitcher in baseball, it's pretty impressive. Uh.
And then that helped him to achieve a three point
three eight e R a one point one three whip.
(06:30):
Just a good overall season for Patrick Corbin, a season
that didn't really get substantially worse after the average fastball
fastball velocity start to decrease, and then towards the end
of the year it actually rebounded a bit. But at
that point I wasn't caring anymore because he was still
really good. Now, the one warning sign that there is
(06:53):
UH for for Corbin, which isn't really related to a
change of scenery for him, is that at he did
give up quite a bit of hard contact. He was
in the top third of starting pictures. I think this
was minimum bat a ball events. Unfortunate did write down
(07:14):
in my notes here up. I did did a sort
earlier in the day as I was prepared for the show,
and he came up. It was like a hundred third
out of or so UH pictures that that qualified by
the sort UH in terms of exit velocity allowed on
fly balls in line drives. So that's it's not horrible,
I mean, just squeaking in at the top one third
(07:36):
certainly better than being in like the top you know,
ten percent or even. But it's it's so slightly concerning
in tandem with the fact that he had at or
contact rate which is just flat out high. So uh,
you know, at least you could say that if that's
gonna be a concern, it's way less of a concern
(07:56):
now that he's not going to be in the A.
L East, which was, you know, which is what would
have happened if he had become a Yankee, or if
he had gone to Philadelphia where the visiting ballparks aren't
so bad, but he would have thrown roughly half of
his starts at sis In's Bank Park. So, uh, maybe
a bit of a bullet dodge there for for Corbin,
(08:18):
but maybe partly because of the Chase field humid or
that hard contact rate, that high relatively high exit velocity
on flyballs in line drives did not not only didn't
hurt Corbin, but actually he had no problem with preventing
extra base hits and home runs whichever measure you want
(08:38):
to look at. So maybe a little bit of regression there.
My perception, based on what I read, based on some
early mock drafts that I've been in, is that there's
a little bit of skepticism about Corbin being able to
repeat what he's done. And you know, any sort of
projection system that's worth its weight um is is gonn
(09:02):
to discount Corbin a bit because this season is so
out of line with what he had done before. But
he did demonstrate some new skills. I mean, other than
with the hard contact rate, there's no where you can
really point to and say, boy, he really he really
looked out here. He really should not have had that
low e r A. He really should not have had
that high strike out rate. Um So, unless hitters can
(09:25):
adjust to the slider, or unless for reasons that we
just can't foresee that the effectiveness of the slider deteriorates
some in I don't see any reason why he can't
at least come pretty close to what he did. Um So. Anyway,
Patrick Corbin to the Nationals, big big deal. Lots of
(09:47):
other big deals, though Robertson canoe that trade was swirling
around for a while I think, maybe long enough that
I think I even talked about it on last week's show.
But it is final, has been for for a few days.
Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz our Mets going the other
way to Seattle, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, picture prospect Justin Donn,
(10:11):
relief prospect Gerson Gerson Bautista, and terrific outfield prospect h
Jared Kelly, Nick and I'm not on confident in the pronunciation.
And I even watched some videos to see how others
pronounced it, and I watched one particular video where there's
a panel of people talking about the trade and they
pronounced his name three different ways. So I'm going with
(10:33):
Kellen Nick uh So Trevic outfield prospect there just a
Donne I would think probably see him at some point
maybe later in uh in the Mariners rotation Bautista. That
Mariner's bullpen has just been emptied out, so I wouldn't
completely rule out the idea that maybe Bautista gets in
(10:56):
a high leverage roll for the Mariners and pretty quickly.
Uh Um pitched a little bit from the Mets last year,
but just essentially a cup of coffee. But of course
the big names, the biggest names, the ones going the
other way. Cano and Diaz going to the Mets not
a great move probably for Canoe value wise, just because
he really was hurt power wise. And I know I
(11:19):
did talk about this on last week's show, how Canoe
in Seattle still a reliably good hitter for batting average,
but really lost something in terms of home run power
that's not going to get any better going to City Field,
but I think he can still probably be pretty much
the hitter he was was for the Mariners, and you know,
(11:40):
hit well when he when he came back from the
p e D suspension. So I know, I wouldn't expect
a big drop obviously over over time, you know, cano
at the point in his career where we can see
signs of decline, we can expect to see those really
at any point, and then a Diaz fantastic breakout season
one of certainly the two. I mean, I think a
(12:01):
lot of people would argue that Edward Diez was the
best closer in baseball last year, certainly won the two
best along with Blake Trin and and uh, no reason
to think other than again regression that maybe he would
have experienced in Seattle or any place else. Maybe a
little bit of regression this year, but he should be
one of the top relievers and definitely a candidate to
(12:23):
be the first reliever drafted. And I would expect that
he probably will be in uh in a lot of leagues,
if not the majority of leagues going into this year.
So I don't see his value really shifting much going
from the Mariners to the Mets. And Jerry de Poto,
of course, doesn't take a break, remains busy, and shortly
(12:45):
after that deal was finalized, if my memory serves, within
a matter of just hours, a deal was finalized with
the Phillies sending Jane Sigura, Wan Nicasio and James Pazos
to Philadelphia and going back to Seattle Carlos Santana and
JP Crawford. So um, I think a good move for Siagura,
(13:07):
who uh did not hit for very much power in
his two years with Seattle after coming off of a
twenty homer season with the Diamondbacks pre humid or so
go to Philadelphia should be a good move for Ciagura
did lose some power this past season. And you know,
it probably does strike you as odd that this is
the first thing I'm talking about with Jee Siagura. But
(13:30):
I don't worry about batting average with him, I don't
worry about the steels. I also get super excited about
the steels. I don't think you could rightfully expect him
to get a lot more than twenty. I don't think
he's gonna be a thirty or forty steel guy, but
he should be good for twenty. Are certainly around twenty,
so to be there's there's no real big change there,
(13:52):
I think, going from the Mariners to the Phillies. But
maybe he does get back in the neighborhood of fifteen
or twenty home runs go to Citizens Bank Park. And
one of the things that I thought of in regard
to Sigura with this deal is that a few of
the Phillies and two that come to mind for sure,
(14:13):
um Mi Calfranco and Odouble Herrera didn't hit for a
lot of hard contact last year, and yet we're decent
sources of home run for fantasy home run sources of
home runs. We don't want a source of home run.
We don't just want a single home run anywaits back
to Sigura, so I don't think he's got a terribly
(14:33):
different profile than say Herrera. So again one more reason
to think, not only because he's done it before, but
that maybe Jeans Sagura in UH in Philadelphia can go
back to being a twenty homer hitter in UH. I'm
(14:54):
just gonna take a look at it. I think it
may have said this already, but yeah, he did. He
did see some decline in hard contact last year. So
the new venue is not going to do all the
work for him. But that that to me, is probably
one of the more interesting twists of this trade. Uh.
Certainly you've got a complicated Phillies bullpen situation getting more
(15:16):
complicated with a couple of relievers who are worthy of
high leverage work in the Costo and Pezos Santana. I mean,
I don't even know what to speculate about players getting
trade to the Mariners right now, because I don't know, um,
how long they're going to stay there. I don't know
if if Santana gets gets flipped. UM. I don't think
(15:37):
JP Crawford gets flipped. Obviously he would be somebody that
there gonna be counting on for the future. And I
did see a report that said that Crawford won't necessarily
start the year uh in the Mariners starting lineup or
maybe not even on the roster, that if he needs
more development time in Triple A, they'll let him have
(15:59):
it until they feel like he's ready. So maybe JP
Crawford plays a whole year in Seattle, maybe he doesn't. Um.
And and certainly I don't think he's anybody that owners,
particularly and re draft leagues are going to get really
excited about. He has yet to demonstrate that he can
hit for power even when he wasn't reading where almost
it seems like everybody hit for power. JP Crawford didn't
(16:22):
hit a lot for a lot of power there, but
has really good plate discipline. Could could hit for average uh.
You know, so we'll see see how he develops with
the with the Mariners. UH. In a move that was
certainly not anticipated by many, if any other than maybe
(16:42):
a very very few, the Diamondbacks added a potential picture
to their rotation signing Merrill Kelly. And I will fully
admit I've never heard of him before, but he had
been and the race system between and did spend at
least parts of two seasons in Triple A and and
(17:04):
some decent numbers there too. So he's now thirty. He's
a right hander, he's pitched the last four seasons in
Korea and a diamonback time to a two year deal
for five and a half million dollars including team options
for two and would seem to be getting an opportunity
to join the Diamondbacks rotation now minus Patrick Corbin. Kelly
(17:30):
ranked six in UH the kb O in strikeouts and
it's an interesting leaderboard. You recognize probably a lot of
the names up at the tops former Major leaguers. UH.
And the strikeout champion for among pictures in Korea this
past season was Kiva Sampson. Just to give you an idea,
who who else was up there, but Meryl Kelly. He
(17:52):
ranked sixth in in strikeouts and uh probably going to
uh you know, figure somewhere in that to that Mariner's rotation.
The Astros, Uh, they did not get j t ru Muto. Instead,
they signed Robinson Trinos to one year deal. So they're
pretty well set. It would seem with Torinos and Max
(18:16):
Stassy or Stacy. That's sure why I said that wrong initially,
but Turns and Stacy would seem to be the catching
tandem in Houston. I don't think they would pursue real
Muto at this point, but uh, you know who knows
who knows? Yan Gomes going to the Nationals after they
already got um Kurt Suzuki. So that was another notable trade. UH.
(18:41):
In return going to the Cleveland Indians, Dandel Johnson UH,
an outfield prospect with some speed. UH. Jeffrey Rodriguez a
picture that we saw briefly in the National's rotation last year,
also a player to be named later. So a couple
of interesting prospects going to the Indians and Yan Gomes
to would seem split time with Kurt Suzuki. That's a
(19:02):
pretty pretty powerful tandem there behind the plate. Now for
for the Washington Nationals, who can outgo and catch Patrick Corbin.
So going back to Real Muto and staying on the
topic here of catchers Jet Real Muto. No deal yet
with the Marlins, but they are definitely working the phones.
They're the Braves have been reportedly discussing a deal that
(19:26):
would send uh I would assume, among others, Austin Riley
and Mike's Rocca to Miami. That reported by Craig Mish.
But the team that's really at the last twenty four
hours or so big getting a lot of the attention
a lot of reporting is the Mets, and I've been
a couple of reports that they're willing to do a
(19:47):
deal where they get real Muto and send Brandon Nemo
to the Marlins as probably the centerpiece. But nothing happening
there yet and nothing that seems particularly imminent either. Uh.
Some other picture news, Garrett Richards assigned a two year
deal or I'm sorry he's agreed to sign. I don't
(20:07):
think that one's gone final yet. He's agreed to signed
two year deal with the Padres, two years, fifteen million dollars.
Richards course expect to be out all of nineteen after
having had Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Sonny Gray
no secret there that the Yankees have been offering him
up a trade talks and they've been talking to the Padres.
(20:29):
So Padres maybe adding Sunny Gray along with the Garrett Richards,
although Gang Richards almost certainly not pitching this year. But
Sonny Gray a target for the Padres. Who are They're
really up there their eyes on right now. So those
two additions, one that's all but happened and one that's
right now not happened yet with Sonny Gray. Uh, those
(20:51):
are moves that would uh that could help them and
Gray hopefully would help them this year. Hasn't happened yet though.
Alex Hollam going back to Jerry Depoto and his dealings. Uh,
this going back several days now again because have haven't
done a show here since the last Wednesday. Alex colum
(21:12):
A going to the White Sox in exchange for or
Omar Narves, and that is a move that clearly shore's
up a weakness on both teams, because Mariners needed a
replacement catcher with Mikes Anino go on to the Raise
and uh so they get Narvas, who's a very good,
(21:32):
uh surprisingly actually good this past season offensive catcher, could
hit for average, can get on base, and then showed
a little bit of surprising power this year as well.
Uh defense, not reputedly or as the metrics would have it,
not as good as not nearly as good as Mikes
and Nino's. And then going to the other way, Alex
column A to the White Sox going into a very
(21:56):
kind of open influxibulepen situation where he would stand I
think a very good chance to close games next year.
One more note here that's really a minor one, and
I'm probably paying more attention to this than than the
average fancy owner maybe, But just earlier today Wednesday, the
Rangers agreed to a minor league deal with Raphael Montero,
(22:18):
who also had Tommy John surgery. Won't be ready for
opening Day, but could be up with the team and
in the rotation at some point in And this is
somebody I had my eye on in now the overall
numbers are pretty miserable. For for Rafael Bontero for twenty
seventeen is is uh last season I wanted to picture
(22:41):
with the Mets, but there was a period there where
it looked like he was maybe starting to break out,
where he was getting swings and misses, and even the
full season stats which again on the whole, we're ugly
just a mediocre strikeout rate, a very high walk rate,
which has been sort of a staple from Ontario. He
was one of the best starting pitchers in in terms
(23:02):
of limiting hard contact. So if he's healthy, if he
can get that swinging miss rate back up and just
improved the walk rates somewhat, he's to be an interesting
sleeper to keep an eye on for this year. Uh.
And again we're talking a deep leak sleeper. But I'm
(23:23):
very curious to see how twenty nine is going to
pan out for Raphael Montero. And then going back to
last week, but since the last show, the non tender
deadline came and went, and quite a few big names,
quite a few fantasy relevant names, UH, players who were
not tender contracts by their teams that are now free agents,
(23:44):
Mike Fires also Kendall Graveman from the A's no longer
from the A's Matt Shoemaker is now free agent Blake
Parker and that one was surprising, but I think not
maybe as fantasy relevant as it could been, because it
seemed pretty clear to me the tie Boutchery really established
himself as the twenty nineteen closer back in September, just
(24:09):
being really, really good and consistent after getting called up.
So I think Blake Parker's time had passed, and so
not clearly it has with the Angels. Uh, he is
now free agent. Brad Boxburger also another closer who who faded.
Brad Boxburger is um as a free agent. Hunder Strickland's
free agent. So those are probably the biggest names in
(24:31):
terms of relievers and and maybe even potential closers on
the free agent market. Jonathan Scope nontendered by the Brewers.
Billy Hamilton's who now probably his days is in everyday
outfielder I would think are probably going to be over
um hard to imagine who would sign him to give
him every day at that's, but obviously still has value
(24:53):
in the real world defensively and for fantasy purposes for
Steels as long as he plays reasonably often. A couple
of White Sox obviously Garcia and Matt Davidson, they were
non tendered. Wilmore Flores no longer I met at Harvest,
Solarte no longer a Blue Jay, Justin Bore is a
free agent. And Tim Beckham somebody that I owned quite
(25:18):
a go to quite a few leagues this past year.
Liked the power breakout in Uh, not a good follow
up season for Beckham, and he is now a free agent.
So all interesting stuff, and uh, you know, should just
make next week with the Winter meetings, all the more interesting.
So I wanna talk about a couple of things here.
(25:41):
I mean, that's pretty much in terms of the player
movement in the news. All I've got for right now
a couple of things that are um that that have
been in the news last couple of days, or at
least in the fantasy baseball communities news. And one is
this piece that came out by Jason Stark with The
Athletic I believe on Wednesday morning and talking about basically
(26:08):
the case for and against banning the shift in Major
League Baseball and the reason that Stark wrote about this.
He sets this up really nicely. It's a great piece
by we just go and read it. But uh uh
he he argues that it's it's, you know, something that
we need to keep our eyes on and talk about
because the Major League Baseball Competition Committee at believe it
(26:31):
was at the owners meetings, either owners meetings or GM's meetings. Now,
um heyhow the MLB Competition Committee has basically voice their
support for Rob Manfred to go ahead and take some
initiative in curtailing or legislating or maybe even banning altogether
(26:52):
the shift. So I did a little bit of I mean,
first of all, I was exactly did a little bit
of research into it, but Jason's Ark for this Beast
did a whole bunch of research, So definitely again go
check it out. Some interesting numbers there, and one of
the big takeaways is just that lefties have really had
(27:12):
a difficult time hitting against the shift. But overall, you
look at the overall numbers, Babbit has been very steady
this decade. And this was something that was more and
more teams over the last few years have started to
employ a shift and there was a big increase. I
figured it would show up in Babbit and it really hasn't.
(27:33):
Uh for each year of this decade, we've had all
but one year of this decade played at we just
got so first nine years of tens Babbit has been
somewhere in each season between two hundred, very little change.
And if we just focus on batting average on ground
(27:55):
balls and just exclude uh, flies and liners from the equation.
In and seventeen, as we started to see notable increases
in the use of the shift, major league hitters as
a whole had to thirty nine on ground balls. That
(28:15):
was the highest mark that is a season mark to
date in the twenty tents seen as the shift was
employed even more, it went up to setting a new
high for the decade. Now, it did fall to two
thirty six this past year, but that's still the fourth
highest ground batting average on ground balls for the decade
(28:39):
of the twenty tents. So when you look at the
overall numbers, it's a little puzzling what's going on. And
another thing too in the babip on ground I'm sorry,
on flyballs and online drives, UH, those were the lowest
marks of the decade, so a little harder to sense
(29:00):
of all that. UM, but yeah, That's something that I
think is probably gonna be discussed quite a bit in
the in the weeks and maybe months uh to come,
is whether or not the shift is somehow going to
be legislated. And then finally, just one more item here
that I want to talk about, and it's pretty exciting
(29:22):
on this show, my and and just you know, in
life in general, my go to bad EG statistic catch
all bad eg statistic has been wOBA. It's tremendous because
it it puts a value on virtually every offensive event
and waits it and uh, and it gives you a
really good indication of somebody's overall offensive production. But the
(29:47):
one thing that's that's not been ideal about WOLBA is
that if you use it to try to predict future performance,
it's basically taking past performances a given and it's not
actoring in lack or defense or anything like that. So Uh,
there's a new metric UH that was rolled out by
(30:09):
Jonathan Judge and the team over at Baseball Perspectus UH
Deserved runs created plus or d r C plus. And
so while I'm having to go check out Jason Stark's
piece of you, you haven't already done that on the
athletic Also take a trip over to Baseball Perspectus and
check out d r C plus because there's a very
good article there that explains not in mathematical detail but
(30:32):
more sort of, you know, theoretically, what dr C plus is,
what it does, and how it's different from WHOBA or
weighted runs created plus as a catch all offensive stat
and so this does address that one shortcoming of wOBA
and of weighted runs created plus of being more predictive. UM. So,
(30:54):
rather than than go into the explanation, I would again
just encourage you to go check out Baseball Perspectus and
UH just to give you one example of how this
may make a difference and how we understand offensive production
for individual players. UM. Christian Yellich in terms of wOBA
(31:15):
was the best hitter in the n L this year
hence an l m v p uh and he was
really notably more productive according to wOBA. Then UM, then
Nolan Eronada was Yellish fur twy too wOBA, which is
execceedingly I uh, and Ernado is still extremely good. But
(31:36):
you know, a big gap there, thirty one point gap.
But according to DRC plus, if you look at you know,
maybe what did they deserve? You know, that's why it's
d r C deserved runs created in terms of who
deserved to be more productive, Eronado actually slightly comes out
ahead of Christian Christian Yellis, so that gives you an
(31:57):
idea of you know, how that may if some perceptions
of of hitting performances. And I was just for a
piece that I actually just published earlier on Wednesday on
rhotographs on Alex Bregman and Jose Ramirez and how there
uh power productivity that they showed this year. Maybe that
(32:17):
wasn't all deserved, um, so check that out. But in
part of that research, I also noticed that maybe the
same was true for Christian Yellich and DRC plus seems
to confirm that. So pretty interesting stuff. So itway was
do do check all of that out? And on that
(32:38):
particular note, I'm gonna wrap it up and uh start
to get ready for winter meetings. Yeah, I know it's
still several days away, but it's a lot to do. Anyways,
have a great one, everybody, have fun following all this
hot stove action and I will be back in two weeks,
so enjoy and uh see it. A couple of weeks
(33:00):
the can can
You're listening to the Fantasy Sports Radio Network. Ladies and gentlemen,
to the Fantasy Baseball with Hello everybody, this is the
(00:25):
Fantasy Baseball Hour. I'm your post all melf, you're thank
you so much for listening. And before I get into
the meet of the show, it's a pretty beaty show.
Got some signings, got some Trade's been a busy week. Uh,
some interesting stuff to talk about in terms of the shift. Um,
But before I get into all of that, just a
quick programming note to make sure I get this in here.
(00:48):
Not going to do a show next week. I for
the very first time, I'm going to attend the Major
League Baseball Winter Meetings. I am super excited. Um. It
would the idea of maybe trying to do a show
either from the meetings or maybe immediately after, it's really appealing. Um,
but it's just not gonna fit in. So um, I
(01:08):
will just have to do a Winter Meetings recap the
following week. Uh. So plan right now anyway is to
skip a show next week and then pick right back
up the following week. So just to give you a
warning about that. But again, cannot wait for the Winter meetings.
And I mean there's definitely gonna be things going on
(01:29):
there in terms of player movement, to be sure. Lots
of free agents still to be signed, lots of trades
uh to go down almost to be certain. But it's
been a busy uh week ahead of time, UH, just
the last few days, quite a few things going on. UH.
So the headline I think has to be even though
(01:49):
there's there's some other notable things that have happened last
few days, I think the headline has got to be
the Patrick Corbin signing, uh, first of all, just because
uh of him being one of the top pictures on
the market, but also and also a big deal six
years for a hundred forty million is what's being reported.
(02:10):
But the fact that it was sort of a mystery team,
the Nationals coming kind of out of nowhere when the
Phillies and the Yankees were getting all of the speculation.
Turns out to be the Nationals signing Corbin and creating
a formidable big three along with Max Scherzer and Steven Strasburg.
It's gonna be fun. And then at least, as you know,
(02:30):
I've got some Mets moves to talk about coming up shortly.
But yeah, I gotta be interesting. UH, Philly is also
making some moves. The Braves almost certainly will be making
some moves, but the Nationals UH making a very big
one this week with UM signing Patrick Corbin for the
next six years. And I think Corbin maybe the most
(02:52):
interesting picture in baseball. UM. I've been sort of fascinated
with them for the the past I would say the
past year, but I'd say, you know, since early on
in the season. And you know, part of that is
just a breakout season of of massive proportions for Corbin,
(03:13):
but it's also the way he did it. And one
trend that was pretty much major league wide was that
of pictures locating less often in the zone, and so
that really provided a benefit to those pictures that could
get chases. And nobody was wilder among qualified starting pictures.
(03:35):
No one was wilder the Patrick Corbin was, which is
why I think makes this UM, this breakout so fascinating.
Nobody was wilder than Patrick Corbin, and nobody was better
at getting chases. Had the lowest zone percentage among qualified starters,
the highest O swing percentage among qualified starters, and a
(03:57):
lot of that goes to the UH, the slider, which
is UH, you know, big Big Corbyn's bread and butter,
but he made it an even better pitch this year,
got more horizontal movement on it, and then added a
curveball which was sort of a slurve but um, you know,
basically two different varieties of a slider. Um. That was
(04:18):
just devastating for him. And so that's one storyline for him.
Maybe that's really too sort of that are related to
each other, and one is change of arsenal uh and
then related to that, uh, the improved ability to get
chases that just had tremendous uh impact on his uh,
(04:40):
his productivity. So that's one or maybe two storylines that
we can talk about with Corbin. But another one too
that got a lot of discussion, uh fairly early on
the season was the drop in velocity because came out
throwing e in April, averaging in that range and then
(05:04):
really dropping down to for much of the rest of
the season and pretty consistently so in May. So you know,
Corbin started out great and then there was this drop
in velocity. So I know almost certainly I talked about
it on this show, uh certainly discussed it on Twitter.
Don't recall if I don't think I actually wrote about it,
(05:25):
but many others did, and so there was this I
won't say panic, but you know, concerned at the very
least about Patrick Corbin during the month of May, tracking
start to start what was going on with this velocity,
maybe even into June. I mean, this is a big
point of discussion for a chunk of the season, and
yet he just kept on producing, now not quite the
(05:48):
same level that he did it did in April. The
strikeout rate went down a bit, the walk rate did
go up a bit, but he finished the year with
a twenty nine point four percent strikeout rate. So absolutely
nothing to really complain about there. If you set your
expectations higher than that, uh, you know, that's that that's
(06:09):
something you should be able to overcome. It should be
able to get over that. You know, almost a thirty
percent strikeout right, nothing to complain about there, and a
six three point three percent walk rate on the season, which,
again for the wildest starting pitcher in baseball, it's pretty impressive. Uh.
And then that helped him to achieve a three point
three eight e R a one point one three whip.
(06:30):
Just a good overall season for Patrick Corbin, a season
that didn't really get substantially worse after the average fastball
fastball velocity start to decrease, and then towards the end
of the year it actually rebounded a bit. But at
that point I wasn't caring anymore because he was still
really good. Now, the one warning sign that there is
(06:53):
UH for for Corbin, which isn't really related to a
change of scenery for him, is that at he did
give up quite a bit of hard contact. He was
in the top third of starting pictures. I think this
was minimum bat a ball events. Unfortunate did write down
(07:14):
in my notes here up. I did did a sort
earlier in the day as I was prepared for the show,
and he came up. It was like a hundred third
out of or so UH pictures that that qualified by
the sort UH in terms of exit velocity allowed on
fly balls in line drives. So that's it's not horrible,
I mean, just squeaking in at the top one third
(07:36):
certainly better than being in like the top you know,
ten percent or even. But it's it's so slightly concerning
in tandem with the fact that he had at or
contact rate which is just flat out high. So uh,
you know, at least you could say that if that's
gonna be a concern, it's way less of a concern
(07:56):
now that he's not going to be in the A.
L East, which was, you know, which is what would
have happened if he had become a Yankee, or if
he had gone to Philadelphia where the visiting ballparks aren't
so bad, but he would have thrown roughly half of
his starts at sis In's Bank Park. So, uh, maybe
a bit of a bullet dodge there for for Corbin,
(08:18):
but maybe partly because of the Chase field humid or
that hard contact rate, that high relatively high exit velocity
on flyballs in line drives did not not only didn't
hurt Corbin, but actually he had no problem with preventing
extra base hits and home runs whichever measure you want
(08:38):
to look at. So maybe a little bit of regression there.
My perception, based on what I read, based on some
early mock drafts that I've been in, is that there's
a little bit of skepticism about Corbin being able to
repeat what he's done. And you know, any sort of
projection system that's worth its weight um is is gonn
(09:02):
to discount Corbin a bit because this season is so
out of line with what he had done before. But
he did demonstrate some new skills. I mean, other than
with the hard contact rate, there's no where you can
really point to and say, boy, he really he really
looked out here. He really should not have had that
low e r A. He really should not have had
that high strike out rate. Um So, unless hitters can
(09:25):
adjust to the slider, or unless for reasons that we
just can't foresee that the effectiveness of the slider deteriorates
some in I don't see any reason why he can't
at least come pretty close to what he did. Um So. Anyway,
Patrick Corbin to the Nationals, big big deal. Lots of
(09:47):
other big deals, though Robertson canoe that trade was swirling
around for a while I think, maybe long enough that
I think I even talked about it on last week's show.
But it is final, has been for for a few days.
Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz our Mets going the other
way to Seattle, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, picture prospect Justin Donn,
(10:11):
relief prospect Gerson Gerson Bautista, and terrific outfield prospect h
Jared Kelly, Nick and I'm not on confident in the pronunciation.
And I even watched some videos to see how others
pronounced it, and I watched one particular video where there's
a panel of people talking about the trade and they
pronounced his name three different ways. So I'm going with
(10:33):
Kellen Nick uh So Trevic outfield prospect there just a
Donne I would think probably see him at some point
maybe later in uh in the Mariners rotation Bautista. That
Mariner's bullpen has just been emptied out, so I wouldn't
completely rule out the idea that maybe Bautista gets in
(10:56):
a high leverage roll for the Mariners and pretty quickly.
Uh Um pitched a little bit from the Mets last year,
but just essentially a cup of coffee. But of course
the big names, the biggest names, the ones going the
other way. Cano and Diaz going to the Mets not
a great move probably for Canoe value wise, just because
he really was hurt power wise. And I know I
(11:19):
did talk about this on last week's show, how Canoe
in Seattle still a reliably good hitter for batting average,
but really lost something in terms of home run power
that's not going to get any better going to City Field,
but I think he can still probably be pretty much
the hitter he was was for the Mariners, and you know,
(11:40):
hit well when he when he came back from the
p e D suspension. So I know, I wouldn't expect
a big drop obviously over over time, you know, cano
at the point in his career where we can see
signs of decline, we can expect to see those really
at any point, and then a Diaz fantastic breakout season
one of certainly the two. I mean, I think a
(12:01):
lot of people would argue that Edward Diez was the
best closer in baseball last year, certainly won the two
best along with Blake Trin and and uh, no reason
to think other than again regression that maybe he would
have experienced in Seattle or any place else. Maybe a
little bit of regression this year, but he should be
one of the top relievers and definitely a candidate to
(12:23):
be the first reliever drafted. And I would expect that
he probably will be in uh in a lot of leagues,
if not the majority of leagues going into this year.
So I don't see his value really shifting much going
from the Mariners to the Mets. And Jerry de Poto,
of course, doesn't take a break, remains busy, and shortly
(12:45):
after that deal was finalized, if my memory serves, within
a matter of just hours, a deal was finalized with
the Phillies sending Jane Sigura, Wan Nicasio and James Pazos
to Philadelphia and going back to Seattle Carlos Santana and
JP Crawford. So um, I think a good move for Siagura,
(13:07):
who uh did not hit for very much power in
his two years with Seattle after coming off of a
twenty homer season with the Diamondbacks pre humid or so
go to Philadelphia should be a good move for Ciagura
did lose some power this past season. And you know,
it probably does strike you as odd that this is
the first thing I'm talking about with Jee Siagura. But
(13:30):
I don't worry about batting average with him, I don't
worry about the steels. I also get super excited about
the steels. I don't think you could rightfully expect him
to get a lot more than twenty. I don't think
he's gonna be a thirty or forty steel guy, but
he should be good for twenty. Are certainly around twenty,
so to be there's there's no real big change there,
(13:52):
I think, going from the Mariners to the Phillies. But
maybe he does get back in the neighborhood of fifteen
or twenty home runs go to Citizens Bank Park. And
one of the things that I thought of in regard
to Sigura with this deal is that a few of
the Phillies and two that come to mind for sure,
(14:13):
um Mi Calfranco and Odouble Herrera didn't hit for a
lot of hard contact last year, and yet we're decent
sources of home run for fantasy home run sources of
home runs. We don't want a source of home run.
We don't just want a single home run anywaits back
to Sigura, so I don't think he's got a terribly
(14:33):
different profile than say Herrera. So again one more reason
to think, not only because he's done it before, but
that maybe Jeans Sagura in UH in Philadelphia can go
back to being a twenty homer hitter in UH. I'm
(14:54):
just gonna take a look at it. I think it
may have said this already, but yeah, he did. He
did see some decline in hard contact last year. So
the new venue is not going to do all the
work for him. But that that to me, is probably
one of the more interesting twists of this trade. Uh.
Certainly you've got a complicated Phillies bullpen situation getting more
(15:16):
complicated with a couple of relievers who are worthy of
high leverage work in the Costo and Pezos Santana. I mean,
I don't even know what to speculate about players getting
trade to the Mariners right now, because I don't know, um,
how long they're going to stay there. I don't know
if if Santana gets gets flipped. UM. I don't think
(15:37):
JP Crawford gets flipped. Obviously he would be somebody that
there gonna be counting on for the future. And I
did see a report that said that Crawford won't necessarily
start the year uh in the Mariners starting lineup or
maybe not even on the roster, that if he needs
more development time in Triple A, they'll let him have
(15:59):
it until they feel like he's ready. So maybe JP
Crawford plays a whole year in Seattle, maybe he doesn't. Um.
And and certainly I don't think he's anybody that owners,
particularly and re draft leagues are going to get really
excited about. He has yet to demonstrate that he can
hit for power even when he wasn't reading where almost
it seems like everybody hit for power. JP Crawford didn't
(16:22):
hit a lot for a lot of power there, but
has really good plate discipline. Could could hit for average uh.
You know, so we'll see see how he develops with
the with the Mariners. UH. In a move that was
certainly not anticipated by many, if any other than maybe
(16:42):
a very very few, the Diamondbacks added a potential picture
to their rotation signing Merrill Kelly. And I will fully
admit I've never heard of him before, but he had
been and the race system between and did spend at
least parts of two seasons in Triple A and and
(17:04):
some decent numbers there too. So he's now thirty. He's
a right hander, he's pitched the last four seasons in
Korea and a diamonback time to a two year deal
for five and a half million dollars including team options
for two and would seem to be getting an opportunity
to join the Diamondbacks rotation now minus Patrick Corbin. Kelly
(17:30):
ranked six in UH the kb O in strikeouts and
it's an interesting leaderboard. You recognize probably a lot of
the names up at the tops former Major leaguers. UH.
And the strikeout champion for among pictures in Korea this
past season was Kiva Sampson. Just to give you an idea,
who who else was up there, but Meryl Kelly. He
(17:52):
ranked sixth in in strikeouts and uh probably going to
uh you know, figure somewhere in that to that Mariner's rotation.
The Astros, Uh, they did not get j t ru Muto. Instead,
they signed Robinson Trinos to one year deal. So they're
pretty well set. It would seem with Torinos and Max
(18:16):
Stassy or Stacy. That's sure why I said that wrong initially,
but Turns and Stacy would seem to be the catching
tandem in Houston. I don't think they would pursue real
Muto at this point, but uh, you know who knows
who knows? Yan Gomes going to the Nationals after they
already got um Kurt Suzuki. So that was another notable trade. UH.
(18:41):
In return going to the Cleveland Indians, Dandel Johnson UH,
an outfield prospect with some speed. UH. Jeffrey Rodriguez a
picture that we saw briefly in the National's rotation last year,
also a player to be named later. So a couple
of interesting prospects going to the Indians and Yan Gomes
to would seem split time with Kurt Suzuki. That's a
(19:02):
pretty pretty powerful tandem there behind the plate. Now for
for the Washington Nationals, who can outgo and catch Patrick Corbin.
So going back to Real Muto and staying on the
topic here of catchers Jet Real Muto. No deal yet
with the Marlins, but they are definitely working the phones.
They're the Braves have been reportedly discussing a deal that
(19:26):
would send uh I would assume, among others, Austin Riley
and Mike's Rocca to Miami. That reported by Craig Mish.
But the team that's really at the last twenty four
hours or so big getting a lot of the attention
a lot of reporting is the Mets, and I've been
a couple of reports that they're willing to do a
(19:47):
deal where they get real Muto and send Brandon Nemo
to the Marlins as probably the centerpiece. But nothing happening
there yet and nothing that seems particularly imminent either. Uh.
Some other picture news, Garrett Richards assigned a two year
deal or I'm sorry he's agreed to sign. I don't
(20:07):
think that one's gone final yet. He's agreed to signed
two year deal with the Padres, two years, fifteen million dollars.
Richards course expect to be out all of nineteen after
having had Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Sonny Gray
no secret there that the Yankees have been offering him
up a trade talks and they've been talking to the Padres.
(20:29):
So Padres maybe adding Sunny Gray along with the Garrett Richards,
although Gang Richards almost certainly not pitching this year. But
Sonny Gray a target for the Padres. Who are They're
really up there their eyes on right now. So those
two additions, one that's all but happened and one that's
right now not happened yet with Sonny Gray. Uh, those
(20:51):
are moves that would uh that could help them and
Gray hopefully would help them this year. Hasn't happened yet though.
Alex Hollam going back to Jerry Depoto and his dealings. Uh,
this going back several days now again because have haven't
done a show here since the last Wednesday. Alex colum
(21:12):
A going to the White Sox in exchange for or
Omar Narves, and that is a move that clearly shore's
up a weakness on both teams, because Mariners needed a
replacement catcher with Mikes Anino go on to the Raise
and uh so they get Narvas, who's a very good,
(21:32):
uh surprisingly actually good this past season offensive catcher, could
hit for average, can get on base, and then showed
a little bit of surprising power this year as well.
Uh defense, not reputedly or as the metrics would have it,
not as good as not nearly as good as Mikes
and Nino's. And then going to the other way, Alex
column A to the White Sox going into a very
(21:56):
kind of open influxibulepen situation where he would stand I
think a very good chance to close games next year.
One more note here that's really a minor one, and
I'm probably paying more attention to this than than the
average fancy owner maybe, But just earlier today Wednesday, the
Rangers agreed to a minor league deal with Raphael Montero,
(22:18):
who also had Tommy John surgery. Won't be ready for
opening Day, but could be up with the team and
in the rotation at some point in And this is
somebody I had my eye on in now the overall
numbers are pretty miserable. For for Rafael Bontero for twenty
seventeen is is uh last season I wanted to picture
(22:41):
with the Mets, but there was a period there where
it looked like he was maybe starting to break out,
where he was getting swings and misses, and even the
full season stats which again on the whole, we're ugly
just a mediocre strikeout rate, a very high walk rate,
which has been sort of a staple from Ontario. He
was one of the best starting pitchers in in terms
(23:02):
of limiting hard contact. So if he's healthy, if he
can get that swinging miss rate back up and just
improved the walk rates somewhat, he's to be an interesting
sleeper to keep an eye on for this year. Uh.
And again we're talking a deep leak sleeper. But I'm
(23:23):
very curious to see how twenty nine is going to
pan out for Raphael Montero. And then going back to
last week, but since the last show, the non tender
deadline came and went, and quite a few big names,
quite a few fantasy relevant names, UH, players who were
not tender contracts by their teams that are now free agents,
(23:44):
Mike Fires also Kendall Graveman from the A's no longer
from the A's Matt Shoemaker is now free agent Blake
Parker and that one was surprising, but I think not
maybe as fantasy relevant as it could been, because it
seemed pretty clear to me the tie Boutchery really established
himself as the twenty nineteen closer back in September, just
(24:09):
being really, really good and consistent after getting called up.
So I think Blake Parker's time had passed, and so
not clearly it has with the Angels. Uh, he is
now free agent. Brad Boxburger also another closer who who faded.
Brad Boxburger is um as a free agent. Hunder Strickland's
free agent. So those are probably the biggest names in
(24:31):
terms of relievers and and maybe even potential closers on
the free agent market. Jonathan Scope nontendered by the Brewers.
Billy Hamilton's who now probably his days is in everyday
outfielder I would think are probably going to be over
um hard to imagine who would sign him to give
him every day at that's, but obviously still has value
(24:53):
in the real world defensively and for fantasy purposes for
Steels as long as he plays reasonably often. A couple
of White Sox obviously Garcia and Matt Davidson, they were
non tendered. Wilmore Flores no longer I met at Harvest,
Solarte no longer a Blue Jay, Justin Bore is a
free agent. And Tim Beckham somebody that I owned quite
(25:18):
a go to quite a few leagues this past year.
Liked the power breakout in Uh, not a good follow
up season for Beckham, and he is now a free agent.
So all interesting stuff, and uh, you know, should just
make next week with the Winter meetings, all the more interesting.
So I wanna talk about a couple of things here.
(25:41):
I mean, that's pretty much in terms of the player
movement in the news. All I've got for right now
a couple of things that are um that that have
been in the news last couple of days, or at
least in the fantasy baseball communities news. And one is
this piece that came out by Jason Stark with The
Athletic I believe on Wednesday morning and talking about basically
(26:08):
the case for and against banning the shift in Major
League Baseball and the reason that Stark wrote about this.
He sets this up really nicely. It's a great piece
by we just go and read it. But uh uh
he he argues that it's it's, you know, something that
we need to keep our eyes on and talk about
because the Major League Baseball Competition Committee at believe it
(26:31):
was at the owners meetings, either owners meetings or GM's meetings. Now,
um heyhow the MLB Competition Committee has basically voice their
support for Rob Manfred to go ahead and take some
initiative in curtailing or legislating or maybe even banning altogether
(26:52):
the shift. So I did a little bit of I mean,
first of all, I was exactly did a little bit
of research into it, but Jason's Ark for this Beast
did a whole bunch of research, So definitely again go
check it out. Some interesting numbers there, and one of
the big takeaways is just that lefties have really had
(27:12):
a difficult time hitting against the shift. But overall, you
look at the overall numbers, Babbit has been very steady
this decade. And this was something that was more and
more teams over the last few years have started to
employ a shift and there was a big increase. I
figured it would show up in Babbit and it really hasn't.
(27:33):
Uh for each year of this decade, we've had all
but one year of this decade played at we just
got so first nine years of tens Babbit has been
somewhere in each season between two hundred, very little change.
And if we just focus on batting average on ground
(27:55):
balls and just exclude uh, flies and liners from the equation.
In and seventeen, as we started to see notable increases
in the use of the shift, major league hitters as
a whole had to thirty nine on ground balls. That
(28:15):
was the highest mark that is a season mark to
date in the twenty tents seen as the shift was
employed even more, it went up to setting a new
high for the decade. Now, it did fall to two
thirty six this past year, but that's still the fourth
highest ground batting average on ground balls for the decade
(28:39):
of the twenty tents. So when you look at the
overall numbers, it's a little puzzling what's going on. And
another thing too in the babip on ground I'm sorry,
on flyballs and online drives, UH, those were the lowest
marks of the decade, so a little harder to sense
(29:00):
of all that. UM, but yeah, That's something that I
think is probably gonna be discussed quite a bit in
the in the weeks and maybe months uh to come,
is whether or not the shift is somehow going to
be legislated. And then finally, just one more item here
that I want to talk about, and it's pretty exciting
(29:22):
on this show, my and and just you know, in
life in general, my go to bad EG statistic catch
all bad eg statistic has been wOBA. It's tremendous because
it it puts a value on virtually every offensive event
and waits it and uh, and it gives you a
really good indication of somebody's overall offensive production. But the
(29:47):
one thing that's that's not been ideal about WOLBA is
that if you use it to try to predict future performance,
it's basically taking past performances a given and it's not
actoring in lack or defense or anything like that. So Uh,
there's a new metric UH that was rolled out by
(30:09):
Jonathan Judge and the team over at Baseball Perspectus UH
Deserved runs created plus or d r C plus. And
so while I'm having to go check out Jason Stark's
piece of you, you haven't already done that on the
athletic Also take a trip over to Baseball Perspectus and
check out d r C plus because there's a very
good article there that explains not in mathematical detail but
(30:32):
more sort of, you know, theoretically, what dr C plus is,
what it does, and how it's different from WHOBA or
weighted runs created plus as a catch all offensive stat
and so this does address that one shortcoming of wOBA
and of weighted runs created plus of being more predictive. UM. So,
(30:54):
rather than than go into the explanation, I would again
just encourage you to go check out Baseball Perspectus and
UH just to give you one example of how this
may make a difference and how we understand offensive production
for individual players. UM. Christian Yellich in terms of wOBA
(31:15):
was the best hitter in the n L this year
hence an l m v p uh and he was
really notably more productive according to wOBA. Then UM, then
Nolan Eronada was Yellish fur twy too wOBA, which is
execceedingly I uh, and Ernado is still extremely good. But
(31:36):
you know, a big gap there, thirty one point gap.
But according to DRC plus, if you look at you know,
maybe what did they deserve? You know, that's why it's
d r C deserved runs created in terms of who
deserved to be more productive, Eronado actually slightly comes out
ahead of Christian Christian Yellis, so that gives you an
(31:57):
idea of you know, how that may if some perceptions
of of hitting performances. And I was just for a
piece that I actually just published earlier on Wednesday on
rhotographs on Alex Bregman and Jose Ramirez and how there
uh power productivity that they showed this year. Maybe that
(32:17):
wasn't all deserved, um, so check that out. But in
part of that research, I also noticed that maybe the
same was true for Christian Yellich and DRC plus seems
to confirm that. So pretty interesting stuff. So itway was
do do check all of that out? And on that
(32:38):
particular note, I'm gonna wrap it up and uh start
to get ready for winter meetings. Yeah, I know it's
still several days away, but it's a lot to do. Anyways,
have a great one, everybody, have fun following all this
hot stove action and I will be back in two weeks,
so enjoy and uh see it. A couple of weeks
(33:00):
the can can
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