February 19, 2020 • 53 mins
Get your latest news, notes, and wagering advice for all the soccer matches! The crew talks about how Roma is gearing up for tournament play, and how it could affect their play in upcoming matches.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everybody,
(00:26):
and welcome back to The Free Kick. Martino Puccio Gio
Cosalino with you here. Chelsea is on vacation in Columbia.
I don't know where she is exactly, she just travels
around the whole world, but she'll be back here next week.
Are you excited for the Champions League? Because Champions League
is back today. We've been waiting to talk about this
from on this show for months, and luckily now we're
(00:48):
in another time slot so we can talk about some
of these games too. I know. Yeah, that's finally because
we weren't able to get to all the group stage
games that were earlier on in the season. But now
we can get to some of these games earlier in
the episode because in about forty five minutes or so,
they're gonna start kicking off. You could watch the games
on TNT, I believe over here in the United States. Um,
(01:08):
So basically, let's get into it right because we've been
talking about the matchup since they came out way back when,
a couple of months ago. But to me, the important
thing to bet on here is recent form. Forget about
what happened in the group stage. That's pretty much irrelevant now.
The only bearing that that has is how some teams
play on the road against some of the top opponents.
(01:31):
A Monopoly, which is one of the teams that I
want to get into because you we know your cynical.
You're very negative. You don't really believe Monopoly as much
as you honestly should because Bars ain't that great, right,
and we talked about this from time and time again.
They're playing a little bit better on the weekend for
La Liga. Messy is just absolutely on fire, best player
(01:51):
in the world still to this day. Butnopoly again, they've
shown the tendency to play up to their opponents and
then down to their opponents. They beat you way, but
then they lose to a let check. They go on
the road, they get up points against Liverpool, where not
many teams have been able to do so, do you
believe in them? You think they got a shot here?
I think they have an outside shot. I'll start with
(02:11):
the negative. Since I'm such a negative person, might as
well start with the negative. The negatives here is the
defense from last year. It's not the same as as
as last year, even though it seemed improved from the
transit market. Right we saw that they signed Monoloss and
on paper it was DiLorenzo, who was very good from
from Mpoleague coming in. He's had a good season. Uh,
and then you have Monolosque and and Clibally left back.
(02:34):
It's still Mono Rui, you know. And what he's out
between Ghulam and Lupeka because we don't really have a
backup left back right now. Really Goulan has been injured.
He just came back. But the big partnership that was
made so much of was Monolastic Clibly. Cullibly gets hurt
and it's really just Monoloss and then Maximovitch gets hurt
and you move your right back to center back. That
(02:55):
was a bad part. Now they're healthy, well, Clebally's apparently reinjured,
but max him Wich has been back. He's been decent
in the past couple of games, so you have that
center back partnership. That's the only negative because if you
look at last year, right, we didn't concede as many
goals as already and now at this point in season
not even it's it's it's actually terrible. I think we
only have a plus three differential or something like that.
(03:16):
So that worries me when you look at Messy, right,
because Messy is always that that guy for Barcelona and
right now it's it's been Messy FC. He's been doing everything,
you know, but this could be the part where Gree's
mom might wake up, you don't know. But they're without
he has to but they're without Suarez, so that's a
little bit better for Napoly to not have to guard
(03:36):
so many people. Um. But I just want to say
for the positive side that Monopoly has played well on
the road, so when they have to go to campnew
hopefully they are able to do that. And they have
played up to competition, like you said, they've been eat
that away and cape Vali of the first like they've
beaten Liverpool at home and gotten a point away. Um,
and they've beaten Ventus at home. I know that was
(03:59):
at home, but that was a big game with some
people out, so yeah, they do have a chance. Well also,
I forget to mention Dembele is out for Barcelona too,
so that plays a part into Napoly being a little
bit weak on defense. But it kind of negates itself
a little bit because bars is wearing a little thin
in terms of being up top there. Butnoply plush two
ninety to advance to the next round because those are
(04:21):
some of the things that you could do there. The
important thing here is and Barcelona struggled a lot on
the road and the knockout stages in recent years. We
saw with Liverpool, we saw with Roma, Nopoly just simply
shuts them out at home end at the San Bolo,
get a couple of goals there, you know, even if
it's a one or two nothing victory. And then this
(04:43):
even goes back to when Barcelona was playing lowly me
lines back in the group stage, because they had opportunities
to knock them out one nothing too to nothing win
for Monopoly. All of a sudden, you're feeling really good
about yourself because then the pressure is on for Barcelona.
They're not playing great. I think I think they get
knocked down in Copa del Rey and now their their
(05:05):
their chances of winning La Liga are dwindling. So as
of right now, there's a tone of pressure on Barcelona.
For Napoli, we discussed this preseason. It's really just if
they had a chance to fight for the Scudetto, which
at this point it's impossible to do so scrap that
they have a chance of winning Coupi Italia. They can
make a deep run in the Champions League. They could
(05:25):
actually salvage their season somewhat because you're bringing in a
lot of money in terms of that. But that's one
of those matchups. I think that is potentially one of
the best long shot odds for a team in terms
of odds to advance to the next round. Plus two
ninety is a team to look at. Another one that's
the underdog to advance in the next round, Real Madrid.
Man City. We're gonna get into what Man Cities issues
(05:48):
are later on into the show, but Man City as
a whole, they haven't been playing great this season. They've
failed to really challenge for the title because Liverpool is
already securing their spot at the Champions League next season.
As of right now, Man City does not have a
great track record of playing well in the Champions League.
Spurs basically on them. They can't. They couldn't knock out
(06:10):
Monica when they face him. It looked like they were
on their way to potentially go to their first ever
Champions League final. As of right now, I'm not confident
Real Madrid's plus one safety to advance to the next round.
I said it since the draw came out weeks ago,
months ago. I said Real Madrid, without a doubt, is
going to beat Man City. I still believe that to
this day. We've been on Real Madrid time and time again,
(06:33):
more of the same. Like, do you understand why City
is the favorite? Absolutely? I I agree. I don't understand
why City is the favorite, to be honest, especially if
you get plus money on Real Madrid you jump for that.
Um But I I completely agree there's no reason to
jump off the realm train. And I know they might
have slipped up this past weekend with the draw and whatnot.
You know, and now you're looking at a lout le
(06:54):
go it's close again. Round has been the better team
by far, better defensively, so that's why what manson one
of the top three defenses in terms of goals allowed
in this Europe Yeah, exactly, and Aguero is going to
be that big test because you know he's been hot
more hot lately, at least for its competition exactly to
(07:15):
prove himself a little bit. And I think that, to
be honest with you, Raal Madrid has what it takes
to really nullify Aguare. I think when you have most
of the back Ron at the back, their whole defensive
line is has been you know, masterful this season, and
even when they can't score some goals they can't win. Uh,
in La Liga, they're able to pull out a draw. Right.
(07:36):
Sometimes draws are important because in the end, if if
you only lost one game, but you have you know,
six or seven draws and you're able to you know,
rack up some points that way. When Bars is losing
some games, that's important. But for Champions League, there's no
reason why you don't take plus money here. Rameadar has
gone and done. You saw in the in the group
(07:56):
stage all you know, they had a decent group for them.
At least you mentioned it group. It doesn't matter anymore, uh,
they got it done regardless. They were playing most of
the season without hazard as well. He's been usually decent
for Chelsea in the Champions League in his proven track record.
You bring him back and now you have you know,
you have people on the bench at Yeovich who can
(08:16):
still come in and you never know, produce something for
you as well, like he did in Europe last season
for his German side. So I'm I'm still impressed with
Real Madrid here. I don't think that you have to
you you should jump off that train. Um and Man
City might have a distraction. This might this band that
they have that they are appealing and whatnot. It might
be a motivation for them. We've never seen this and
(08:38):
the timing could not be worse for Them's unprecedented, it
really is it to happen midway through and right before
a knockout stage, right, it's not even that as just
during the Premier League and they have nothing else to
worry about. They have to worry about Real Madrid and
advancing in the knockout rounds of the Champions League. This
is It's insane, honestly. So I don't know if this
would be a motivations then or it could be a distraction.
(08:59):
Well and when more point, because we're gonna get into
it afterwards. There is apparently a clause that we're in
all these players contracts that since Manchester City has these
issues with financial fair play, is a breach within the contracts.
So technically they might be able to walk this summer,
depending on the appeal. So if guys are able to walk,
then that means their futures and secure your futures and
(09:19):
scre and we talk about this all the time, whether
it's managers getting fired, whether it's players having an unsuccessful season.
Monopoly is one of the examples that we talk about.
You don't know about the futures. If you don't know
what your future is, how are you able to stay focused,
not only for the season, especially in the biggest annual
competition that this sport has to offer. And for me,
I don't understand why people would be a shoeman from
(09:43):
Manchester City, right, It's not about I think Manchester City
clearly as the capability of advancing to the next round.
That's not what we're saying. What we're saying here is
Manchester City isn't issuing they shouldn't be the favorite because
at the end of the day, we talk about current
form is important, but history all so matters, and the
history for Manchester City is that they've never done this
(10:04):
before and this is, without a shadow of a doubt,
the hardest competition to get over the hump for right.
I mean, how many times do we talk about Cuventus,
one of the best clubs in the world of all time,
they can't win this competition. They've lost seven finals, that's
the most out of any club of all time, and
they're still struggling to this day with one of the
greatest players of all time. With that. Now Manchester City
(10:25):
they have injuries on defense, they have issues with f FP,
they don't know if their players are staying and at
the end of the day, you're sitting yourself saying why
are they favorite again against the greatest club that has
ever played in this competition in Real Madrid? And seemingly
they're on the come up now. They're a lot better
than they were last year. Their defense is certainly a
lot better and they have the depth to do this,
(10:46):
whereas Manchester City, I'm not totally convinced by that, and
they have a difficult lay against Leicester City as well. Um,
excuse me, which is very important in terms of qualifying
for next year's but as of right now they're banned
for the next two years and we don't even know
about that with the appeal. So for me, there's just
so much negativity surrounding Manchester City, so much surrounding the players,
(11:10):
that somehow they're the favorites. To me, it just doesn't
make sense when you add up all the variables. So
how about this, I'll make it a little bit easier
for you. I know where you're probably gonna leave Real
Madrid or Anapoly to advance to the next round. Real Madrid,
I assume, is your favorite. To do that out of
its way more likely than to Uh, just a whole
(11:31):
vibe around the teams is completely different. Real Madrid trending
upwards compared to last year, and pretty much it's just
been a constant thing throughout this whole season. Uh. You
know they're out of the Copadal right as well, right,
so it's it's a weird uh Spanish Cup without Barsa
and Real Madrid. We don't ever see that happening. It
hasn't happened in so many years. But Real Madrid is
(11:51):
definitely a higher favorite Thannopoly Anopoly, Like you said, they
do have that outside shot. I agree with you there.
I'm not gonna be too depressed about the team because
they have showed that outside of the league, in other
cups they're able to somehow compete. And I don't know
if that's just because, hey, they have the mentality that
we already lost the school that though we we we
just look terrible doing it. They've won four other last five.
(12:13):
But then you loose to litch it that, you know,
that makes it seemed a little worse. But out of
the two, you gotta lean towards Real Madrezze more likely
to pick. If you're gonna pick between those two, um
out of guaranteed matchups that we've seen, Hugh Rey, Leon, Liverpool,
Athletico Madrid. Do you think those like Huve and Liverpool
are absolute chat up is down to advance. I think yeah,
(12:36):
Liverpool and you weis should in Liverpool. I'm not really worried,
but if they lose, that's a massive shock. It would
be a massive shock. But when we come back, we're
gonna be talking with our friends from Mackie Score, sports
(12:58):
grid dot com, Betting Inside and Entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks and more.
Want the edge, then get on the grid sports grid
dot com. Hello everybody, and welcome back to the Free Kick.
(13:22):
Martino Puccio here discussing with our friends from ACTU Score.
We're gonna get two games from them today. Shalk lives
Big Lights. Big has absolutely been unbelievable this season fighting
for the title in Bundesliga. Do they continue their hot
season with a win here? Yeah? Indeed, Leipzig season has
been fantastic so far. They are effectively fighting for the
(13:46):
title in bundes League against Buyer, Moonshin and couple of others,
which is very refreshing considering how dominant Buyern has been
in the past seasons. Leipzig is one point behind at
the moment after twenty two games played, so a lot
of football to be played, but Leipzig looks like a
real deal in the challenger's position at the moment um.
(14:11):
They're also playing in Champions League knockout stages, which means
they have to travel to London on the nineteenth to
face Tottenha mots Peru, which means it might be a
bit of a burden then to go to Chalk on
the twenty second. There is only three days between and
of course the main target is the Champions League, although
(14:33):
Leipzig will probably want to challenge for bundes League Championship
as well. UM they're not very deep team, so they
probably have to use the same starters for the most part,
at least in both games. Um Letsig is in good form.
They won Verdebrem and last time around they drew with
two of the top four teams Buyer Munsion and Boosia
(14:55):
mentioned glad Bug, so they've got good things going on
for them. UM shall Ke is sixth currently in the Bundesliga.
The season has been decent so far. The probably where
they are supposed to be aiming for top four, which
is the Champions League qualifications spots. UM they are not
(15:18):
in very good form. They've only won one game out
of the last five. They've drown three times during that period,
so they do need to start winning if they plan
on getting their qualification for the Champions League this season. UM.
In simulations, Leipzig is a massive favorite. They win sixty
(15:38):
five point four percent of the simulations. Shall Key only
wins thirteen point three and the draw gets twenty one
point three percent, So I would say the Leipzig will
win quite comfortably and get the three points they really
need in order to challenge for the title. Hopefully, for
their sake, they could still challenge for the title there.
(15:59):
But we love talking totals on the show. I know
you guys always have great information on that. If you
would have to bet a total number in this game,
what would it be? Yeah, it's a very tricky question
this one. On the other hand, Lipzig is one of
the highest scoring teams. They've scored more than two point
five goals per game on average, and in total in
their games there's been three point sixty eight goals scored,
(16:22):
so it's a very over team overall. Shall Ki, on
the other hand, is a very defensive team. Defense is
something that's been working for them, but they've only scored
one point forty five goals themselves. So which one should
you take? The total line for this game for events
is quite high. Um in simulations, Leipzig will score two
(16:48):
point seventeen goals while shall Get scores zero point ninety,
so it's barely over three goals in simulations, but I
would still go for the over. Hopefully they provide as
an entertaining matchup in bundes League, but we're going to
be moving over to the Premier League now Manchester United
versus Watford. Manchester United have a glimmer of hope to
(17:08):
make the Champions League. Do they pick up this win
against Watford in this matchup? Yes, especially now with Manchester
City probably facing the band from the Champions League, the
Premier League number five spot became very very attractive and
that's something that Manchester United can aim for. Although they
(17:29):
with their pedigree, they should be up there already, but
they're not. Their ninth at the moment and their five
points behind that fifth spot which is being held by
Dottenham Hotspur at the moment, so there is a lot
of work to do for Olign Associates team. Um, they've
had a terrible season. In all fairness, they haven't looked
(17:52):
better at any point. They've managed to beat a couple
of the worst teams in the league and then snatch
points from Manes the City and a couple of the
better ones, but in general they've looked very very bad,
especially in games that they should have won quite comfortably.
They lost Burnley at home a couple of weeks ago,
(18:13):
which was a complete disaster in every regard um overall,
they think very mediocre even with the new players in place,
and the injuries are not helping either. What Foot, on
the other hand, is a very bad team. They are
lacking in every aspect. They're leaking goals, they're not scoring.
(18:34):
All the good things that had happened for them are
are pretty much gone. But there's still only one point
into the relegation zone, so every game is like the
last game of for them in order to survive the
drop um. In the simulations, what food or a draw
(18:56):
seems like a better choice than Manchester United win. United
wins forty eight percent of the game, so they are
the favorites, but Watford wins twenty two point seven and
the draw gets twenty nine point three, So I'd say
the smaller money would go for either to draw or
even the road win. In this case. Yeah, Manchester United
(19:18):
should be able to pick up a win here, so
hopefully you guys can make some money in terms of that.
As for Watford, they're absolutely been dreadful again this season.
Do they even get a goal during this match? Like
we've established, Watford is not a very good team, so
they're not the best in scoring either, but they've actually
gotten a bit better in that regards. I think the
(19:40):
bigger problem is the defense. They've only been zeroed out
to scored zero goals in one of their last nine games,
so there's it's something that's been improving for them, and
their players do have the quality to score goals. But
that being said, in the simulations they scored zero point
eighty three goals on average, which is quite low but
(20:02):
still indicates that they should get one goal against Manchester
United and if they're lucky, that might just be enough.
All right, Tommy, thanks for all the information on Manchester
United verse Watford guys. Place your bets on it. Active
Scores absolutely fantastic. Check them out everywhere you can on Twitter,
at act you score and ACTU score dot com geo.
(20:24):
But the real story here is Manchester City obviously getting
breach for FFP violations banned for the Champions League two
seasons next season season after that thirty million euro fine,
because the first time we've really seen a club like
this that we kind of had some issues with the
amount that they've been spending over the course of the
past decade. Obviously their rise to prominence, winning their first
(20:47):
Premier Premier League title in decades. Uh, there was just
so much happening for them for them in this decade,
new owners, lots of money being spent, and finally it
bit them. Yeah, I mean, this is, like you said, unprecedented.
Doesn't really happen in the middle of the season, right
before Champions League knockout round that they're gonna be playing
(21:07):
against Real Madrid. This is a lot for them to
handle at one moment um. And also, you know, right
in the middle of real league season, although they're not
really in contention, that's pretty much wraps um. But this
is this is insane. I mean, what's gonna happen from
this is what the most interesting thing is going to
be because they're also appealing it, so we don't know
if that can be all returned. So we've see we've
seen teams like Melon go through the appeal process and
(21:30):
they don't get as heavy as a band or whatever
it could be. There's rumors saying that it could only
be a one year band, but one year ban from
the Champions League is drastic considering how much money you
bring in as a club. We've seen a cripple a
ton of clubs that haven't been able to go into
the Champions League. Milan again, I know it's one of
those examples. But when you're not bringing in that type
(21:50):
of money, you're paying all these players these wages, they have,
these transfer fees that they need to complete. You know,
this could be catastrophic for them because we've never seen
anything like this competing in the Champions a year and
year out, the amount of wages that they have going
towards this. I mean, what is Pep Guardiola going to
do at this point because his legacy takes a hit
even though he wasn't even at Manchester City when these
(22:12):
violations technically happened in sixteen, and we don't even know
what else is going to happen Elise on that front,
what what do you see happening here? Is a two
year ban really going to be upheld? Well, A lot
of people, actually, you know, some experts or whatever you
wanna call about animal analysts are actually some of them
seem confident that something can be either be given more
(22:34):
linear to punishment where it can actually overturned. I don't
think you can overturn, so can't you can't ban them
for two years, they appeal and then they take it back.
You have to there has to be at least a
one year man. I think the fine absolutely up home,
you can stay it because it's kind of funny to though,
because you're finding someone for having financial issues, so it's
(22:54):
like getting an overdraft charge in your bank account, Like
I have no money, don't charge me more money because
now I'm really screwed. Um. But look, it could be
a potential breach on the contract. We don't know all
the details of these players contracts, but if there's a
breach between the contract and these players are able to
walk for free, makeses United Manchester City. I don't see
this as like a loyal club where it's like Juventus
(23:15):
going down to citya B where these players are staying
loyal to the club because all the rich history and
everything they've done for the club and vice versa. Growing
up through the UTH system. Manchester City isn't that kind
of cull for me too. I think we saw Pep
come out and he said, hey, I'm gonna stay at
the club as long as I'm happy. Well, if you're
a band, I don't think you're you know happy. We've
(23:35):
seen I mentioned this before behind the scenes, but we've
seen that Saudi a Juventus isn't really working out or
doesn't look like it is. You know, maybe winning at
Champions League might be able to save him, who knows,
But even then, I don't think fans on the side.
I mean there's you know, right exactly, And I think
that's also a great point. Pep can go back there.
I could see him landing at opening and players, you know,
(23:56):
at that point go across the street to Manchester United.
That's true, you don't you know? And players at that
point do you really stay? I mean, you have the
likes of the Boina, who's you know, one of the
best midfielder. If he's not exactly you have him, you
have sterling Um, you have Aguero Guerrell. Finally make a
change of scenery. I mean, you stay in the Champions
League this year. A guerrels on the tail end of
(24:18):
his career and he's saying to himself, okay, if we're
not playing in this competition. I played a ton for
this club. I did everything I could. I want to
go out and leave. I want to go to a
club that can offer me the chance to win a
Champions League, so I definitely see the older guard of
players leaving there. I know le Roy Sane again as
one of those names. I think he could potentially leave
because I know there was rumors of him going back
(24:38):
to going to play for Bayern Munich, and I think
that's certainly a possibility because they're not spending money on Cortino.
Let's be real, that's not gonna happen um for me,
There's just so many possibilities that can go on here,
and as of right now, they have to focus on
the Champions League. And that's why we discussed that last
segment on are we really that confident in Manchester are advancing?
(25:00):
Because as of right now, I necessarily don't believe that
with this looming over their heads. We don't know how
long this appeal process is going to be, and there's
obviously going to be more teams that they're gonna have
to investigate, because let's face it, Manchester City isn't the
only one which financial irregularities. You're gonna start seeing the uh,
(25:21):
all the top European leagues now finally being investigated. You're
gonna see probably we saw the rumors, they're probably gonna
be investigating back into Italy, maybe a club like Juventus
PSG hunt, I mean, how can you not investigate PSG
with the moves they make their name squads exactly, So
you're gonna see all these teams start being investigated. The
(25:43):
top ones at least sports grid dot Com Betting, insights
and entertainment at your fingertips seven as our team covers
the most important topics in sports wage real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge,
(26:04):
then get on the grid sports grid dot Com. Alright,
we're back here with the free kick. We're gonna review
some of the matchups that we discussed on last week shows. Obviously,
inter Verse Latsio was probably the biggest matchup that we discussed.
(26:27):
We just had to get it in there because simply
when a team wins the league seven eight years in
a row, you you want to route for a new challenger,
a new team to step up and win there. And
as of right now, it's been lots every single time, weekend,
week out. Everyone's kind of sitting there saying, oh, does
Lotsio have about it? Takes Immobile is eventually gonna burn out.
(26:48):
They can't keep this up for a whole season. Well.
As of right now, Latsio is in second place, one
point behind U that had a massive win against Inter
and Geo. Honestly, Ter, I'm not that surprised that this
happened to him. I know I wasn't absolutely confident with
them coming into this matchup. They still had the injuries.
Handanovitch was not playing in this matchup. Although they did
(27:10):
come back and smack Melan in the phase four to
two in the derby, Dolla Mondina, I mean to me,
this wasn't a shoeing for them, right, This is a
very difficult game on the road Studio Olympic goal. We
know how well Latsio have been playing against all the
top teams and they showed it once again. Milinkovic Savage
scoring that goal against Inter in the dire moments after
(27:33):
Brozovich made a goal line saving deflection, but he gets
it right back. He puts it in the bottom left
corner of the net, and you're sitting there saying to yourself, Okay,
was that the moment right there? Is that the moment
that Latsio truly believes, not just Latsio, everyone else, betters,
casual fans Latsio fans, inter fans, all these people finally
(27:57):
believe that Latsio could potentially win this with that. Well,
I just want to touch on in that real quick
because you mentioned it to me as I've already last
week after you saw Milan you know, give up the
two year lead and needed to come back, you still
mentioned to me that you were really impressed with in Debt, honestly,
and that you know, if if Milan had just played
the same half as the first half, we wouldn't even
(28:19):
having to be having that conversation. They'd be further There
was because there was a few underlying issues within that
game that you said to yourself, Okay, if enters down
to nothing against the team that you could depend upon,
like a lat Seal or a hu you're sitting there
saying to yourself, no way, because they had a crazy
goal with Bosovich, they just by the skin of their
teeth got the ball on side. Um. I mean that
(28:43):
defending by Simon Kierre against Lukaku. That's not gonna happen
against the top defense where everybody's just simply ball watching,
like you're not going to score four goals again, and
especially you're going on the road at the Olympic goal
against Latsio, who's been fantastic a chair to be by
the way, that was an APPS on Real Game Lucaku
Martinez one of the best duos in Europe that we
(29:05):
discussed about weekend week out on this show. We're completely nullified.
They did absolutely nothing in a chair, But from my opinion,
that's one of the top three to five performances he's
had in his career. So again, I mean, just speak
on it, man, because because what is happening over there
is inter dwindling dwindling a little bit, or is this
(29:25):
lot seo simply being too good this year? It's a
little bit of both because for me, we see the
in usually after the winsor break, right, what happens. They
collapse and they have drop some points. We've seen it
happen even going into the winsor break They had a
couple of draws against some questionable teams like Fiodentina was
one of the games as well. So you see things
like that and you think to yourself, is this going
(29:47):
to happen again? Then you look to kunte. Antonio Conte
is their manager. He's probably the reason they're in third place.
To begin with, because even with their roster, you need
a coach to you know, bring the town together and
use it well. Right, And he asks for He asked
for those guys he wanted to actually young, Hey, look,
actually don't scored a goal. It wasn't enough for that game.
But he has been pretty good for them he asked for.
(30:07):
Lukaku has had a great season and people who are
doubting it from his Man United days are forgetting about that.
That's not what they're worrying about. But at the same time,
if if they're going to collapse again and then you
look again and what is he what has he been doing?
Then he keeps blaming it on other things and then
you know those type of things also players. But I
think the players are rallied around him. I'm just saying
(30:29):
that if it continues, they could unrattle quickly. And I
hopefully that's not the case for for Intet's sake, because
they've worked a lot to you know, get to where
they are now and challenge uvent thus but now they're
already falling a bit behind. It's way too soon and
at least three points, only three points. It's one game.
But for on speaking, a lot to his behalf. They
were also a team that going into this season, like
(30:49):
I said, people said Conte, okay, they're gonna challenge Lotso
you look back at them and it's like, okay, are
they gonna be that? Yeah, we have I personally had
them in the running for a fourth spot because to me,
I thought it was a bit of a down year
last year for them. And and when you're so thin
with a roster like this and you're going into all
these competitions. Guys are coming off the World Cup, you know,
(31:12):
I mean, we'll excuse me another World Cup. They were,
They were coming off other competitions over the summer, and
it affects them. We I mean, we see it with
Gulabilly over um A Napoli, right, They just kept such
tired legs that they don't get the proper rest that
they need um and it affected them over the course
of the season. But now they kept that same core.
There's that consistency that they know how to play with
(31:33):
each other. Whereas there's a lot of revolving doors around
another teams and especially the team they share a stadium
with in Roma, there's so many moving parts over there,
Whereas Lotsio. You know, it's the combination of immobile A
playing absolutely unreal. It's it's Milinkovic Savage finally playing up
to that price tag of what a hundred and fifty
million years probably just went up another twenty million euros
(31:54):
considering how Lotito operates over there. But for me, this
is a team right now if you believe in Latsio
and right and if you buy into them beating into
beating huve A twice, not dropping points against the other teams,
if you believe they could win the Scudetto, now is
the time to go put your money down on them,
because as of right now, hu has gotta worry about
(32:17):
copy Italia. You know, they only drew against Milan and
that one they don't look good at all. This is
probably the worst we've seen them in a decade. And
then you could also look to the fact that they
have to worry about Champions League. And we know the
whole purpose for huve A getting Cristiano Ronaldo was to
win the Champions League. They went to the finals, they
went to this they won Scudetto, so that's not what
(32:39):
it's about. It's about them winning that competition. So this
is a perfect time to capture them. Are you buying in?
And if you buy in, do buying that I'm buying?
I would buy it now. Definitely, don't wait on it.
If you're talking about Lotsio winning the title just because
they have they have the pieces, right, you mentioned already immobulus,
I won't really talk about it. It's only four goals
(33:00):
off of scoring thirty, which only he would be the
third player to do so since the nineteen and a
lot of those have been penalties. But hey, you also
have to step up in your birth the penalties, right,
So he's barely missed out, has even missed one of
the season. I can't believe so, but he has scored
less penalties than Christiano, by the way, and then compared,
I mean, Dave, hey, sometimes you need luck on your
side to right or things to go your way. Well,
(33:22):
actually have have drawn you know, thirteen or fourteen penalties
whatever it is, because the mobile has those goals. But listen,
if that's what they earned there, that's what they're getting called,
then they're they're None of them are really that controversial either.
None of them. You could sit there and say maybe
the one yesterday that you're sitting there saying to yourself, Okay,
they didn't they didn't deserve that. That wasn't a penalty
that that warranted them to go from the spot. Right,
(33:43):
there's nothing that controversial within the rules. But correct me
if I'm wrong. I mean, at the end of the day,
you still have to finish these penalties. It's not like
a free throw where it's just you against the basket.
It's you against the goalkeeper. You have to get the
right spot. You have to hit it correctly. Like there's
so many different variables going to a penalty kick. Then
most average fans realize, right, you have to have the
(34:04):
mentality to when you put that ball down, you know
where you're gonna go with it. Right, Usually a lot
of these footballers, they put the ball down, they already
know where they're going, and you know, they might have
that last second switch, but they know where to slap them.
And listen, whether he's scoring goals against you know, five
goals against Litch for example, this and that. If he
has twenty six goals, he's gonna get done. And it'd
be one thing to have twenty six goals and your
(34:26):
teams in fifth because they're an average team. But he
has twenty six goals and whatever the number is, and
the team's up there contending for the title. So that's
one thing. You have Luis Alberta also who has eleven
assistant believe or whatever he's added to that now leading
the league and assist they have a chair being. You
look at their back line and you think to yourself,
you know, I wouldn't really share, by the way, replacing
(34:46):
arguably the best defender in the league right now and defry.
I mean that's that. That was a great changition by
to get him in there, but really quick, just to
wrap it up, if again into Alato, who do you
like more now at this point to win the title?
I think Montio I don't see like Latsio I you don't.
If they haven't choked by now or haven't started falling
(35:07):
by now, what's the reason to think so they've proved it.
They don't Europa League. They do not have districtly set
out for them right now. So look out for Lacio man.
Maybe they win their first Gudeto win over twenty years.
It would be the first different winner between Elon Inter
and Hugh at that point because there's not a lot
of parody in this league and especially over the past decade.
(35:29):
So let's see if Latio can pull that all. But
we're gonna head to Chelsea Spurs man and we've been
talking about this this this week. We technically did say
that we thought the top four was wrapped up for
the Premier League, but we also did say that it
wasn't a closed case, right because Spurs hired Marino. I
(35:50):
thought Marino was getting a little too harsh of criticism
simply because yeah, they didn't win a lot of trophies
at Manchester United, but look at Manchester United now ending
them in the second place was definitely a major accomplishment.
And again they're knocking of the door. They're knocking on
the door of the fourth spot in the Champions League.
This is the match to do it? Is this the
(36:11):
match that Spurs pull out a win. Here They had
another three to win over aston Villa over the weekend,
you know, the gritty three points that they're pulling out
points or points no matter what. There's no Harry Kane.
Still are they gonna beat Chelsea? But listen, without carry Kane,
They've still managed to get into this conversation right slowly,
but surely. Whether it's some draws they have, you know,
some losses here and there, but they've beaten some good teams.
(36:34):
They beat Man City as well, I believe. Um. They
also these two teams they haven't drawn in the last
ten matches against each other. Just to throw that sat
out to you, so one of these teams is gonna win.
I think in this game. I'm not even gonna sell
for a draw at this point. I think that you know,
the Spurs they also haven't lost in January eleven, so
that's two whole months now, five wins and two draws
(36:56):
and all comps in that in that span. Just to
throw that out there. Without Harry Kane, they've still gone
it done. Sauna's stepped up, he scored goals when they
needed to. You know, Monenios they're leading them to this
as well, and if they get this win, they'll be
either you know, depending on what Chelsea does midweek, because
you know that's also there, so we won't jump to
that conclusion. But either way, this is a game where
(37:17):
I think Spurs, even on the road you know at
Stanford Bridge, can go out there and pull out a win. Um.
I like the way you know, I think it'll be Uh,
it could be a shootout because both defensively aren't the greatest.
They're gonna concede. I feel like, and especially the Spurs
hasn't been the same defensively and whether that that's stemming
from you know, having Yeah, and that's great plus money,
(37:40):
and it's because they're on the road. I just wanted
to lean to Spurs just because I want that excitement.
If they get this win, it's it's gonna be a
shootout for fourth for the rest of the season. Yeah.
I think Chelsea's market was kind of indicative of that.
They didn't really add. Currently they're gonna get I think
is an amazing especially for the amount of money that
they're getting them. And that's kind of a trend that
(38:02):
you're seeing now with them because they did it with
plusitch last year. So we're gonna have to if you
have a pick in this money line is difficult. I
think I'm leaving Chelsea because at home, well, I'll do Spurs.
I'll be the I'll be the opposite because I'll be
the contrarian. I like them though it could edit in
a draw, but like I said, the history is showing
that these teams don't end in a draw. Um, I
(38:24):
like the Spurs. I'll alright, I got Chelsea, he has spurs.
But when we come back, we're gonna be talking about
some more top matchups. We're gonna be heading back to Italy.
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(38:51):
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last segment of the day. Can't we wait to get
(40:16):
into some of these matchups GEO, because Milan Fiorentina is
one of the better matchups that we have going on
in Italy this weekend. Obviously, Milan in much better form.
Can't really go off of the loss to head against
Inter because the derby's a derby. They bounced back, They
played fantastic against Cuba. They absolutely outplayed him. That's probably
the best I've seen him play against Hube since they
(40:39):
had Ibra last time in that matchup. Absolutely interesting match
up here though, because Fiorentina last time they played Milan
they went to go at the sun settle back when
they still had Vincenzo Montella, Marco Jim Paula. In this matchup,
both managers got the boot. They're out of there. We
got Papa Ianchini and then Stefano Piola Piola going against
(41:00):
his old team in Fiorentina. Pepe Ianchini. What a stupid
look that guy hasn't anybody who wears a hat with
a suit has got the dumbest get up possible, and
that's including Antonio Conte. We know why he does it
because he's got his stupid wig on and he can't
just get the hair and plans with Jankina. I don't
even know what the issue is. The guy is still bald.
I don't know why he doesn't even do anything to
(41:21):
fix his baldness. He just puts on a hat, looks
like an idiot. And that's honestly an insult to anybody
who's Italian because they're they're usually known for looking good
and being stylish over there. But just a stupid get
up by him, and that's probably where I'm leaning against.
Fiorentina absolutely smacked Milan in this matchup. Last time the
Deby was in there, Um, obviouslybody's a lot of time.
(41:44):
Would have been a great storyline. Not really sure what
the story is going to be with Reby there melon.
Obviously we're playing earlier in the week against Torino in
that matchup, so I think you should er caution there
because they might have a little bit less rest than
Fiodorentina does, who played over the weekend and they had
a great win for them. To me, I I know
(42:05):
this is plus money in terms of money line winning
for Fiorentina and Milan. Milan plays a little bit better
on the road than they do at home for whatever reason,
probably more pressure at home than there is on the
road for them to step up and play there. But
this is a vital game for Milan if they want
to make a Europa League Uh, Spot, I don't, I
(42:27):
don't know. I really, I'm dumbfounded by this matchup. I'm
not add percent confident heading into this as a Milan fan. Um.
To me, I think again, I think they could pull
out a win here, but I'm leaning draw for them. Yeah,
I could see that happening. Milan definitely is still in
the conversation for Europa League. Spot. You know, never you
never know what fourth they I think they're gonna get.
(42:48):
I don't think fourth is in my cards, but I
know you don't think that. But you never really know,
because it's there's still what thirteen games left in this
season or something like that, thirteen or fourteen, so you
just don't know what can happen between. Yeah, you never know.
If they advanced, they could start dropping points. And they
do have that ahead. Yeah, I feel like Napolis in
(43:11):
another ahead of Roma too, because Roman just is just
just just sinking. But looking listen, if you look at Fiorentino,
you look at their their their last couple of games,
they finally got a big win away from home actually,
which is weird, five one win against Samdio, and Fiorentina
hasn't really been scoring as many goals before that win
though they had lost three straight. They had it once
since January eighteen. Yes, who that January eighteenth win was
(43:34):
against Monopoly, of course, because Napoli is just crap. But whatever, Hey, listen,
that's not what we're talking about. But those three lasses
that Fiorentina did lose came against Eton and Copitalia, Juventus
and Atalanta in the league as well, so they did
play three really tough opponents. And Fiorentina this year isn't
the Fiorentina of last year a couple of years ago,
where they're you know, mid table or top eight and
(43:56):
could really uh cause you some trouble unless your anopoly.
But that's so I'll give him, you know, I'll just
discredit those, will not discredit those, but just those are
three tough opponents. That quality is not there. Yeah, I'm
not really gonna you know, just give a heavy account
on those or just take a heavy look into those.
But Milan just one loss, uh, you know, pending whatever
(44:18):
happens earlier with with a midweek um, but since January began,
they've been on fire as well. So I like Melan
in this game too. UM. I could see the worst case,
like you said, with heavy legs, maybe the draw um
and and if I had to pick, I probably picked
the draw. But if I had to favor money Line,
it would be Melan. I just feel like the qualities
is too, you know, much better on Fiord, I mean
(44:40):
on Meal on side than Fiordandine inside, it'd be hard
to argue that, you know, even kids of this season
hasn't really done anything. And it's it's sad to see
him hasn't even played up to like a forty million
dollar evaluation in my opinion, because every all the rumors
were always off to hum a seventy million euros. Maybe
Inter was interested in that include a couple of deals
players in a swap deal, But for me, he hasn't
(45:03):
been that and the story has been Kastrovelli has been
by far their best player, the absolute gem of Seria
this season. A bunch of teams are going to be
in on him. Probably Milan is one of those teams
considering their midfield issues. For me, I actually like the
over two and a half goals in this game, simply
because I don't love me Alan's defense. Their fullbacks are
(45:24):
you know what, we'll call it for what it is,
They're pretty bad. They don't know how to defend their
good going forward and a team like Fiorantino, who's better
going forward. You liked them in that Kiera Romagnoli. It's
a nice solid center back duel and they have played
well as like they absolutely, in my opinion, shut down
Gibala and and Cristiano Ronaldo. They were pretty much nullified
(45:44):
in that copy Italian matchup. Um Lucaco didn't really do
much of sites from that one goal where he was
just alone in the air. For that, For me, I
don't I don't see Fiedarantino actually winning this for me,
because I don't trust them at this point. They had
their nice little cute run last year in the second
half too, they were almost in danger of getting relegated
(46:06):
because they were losing so many matchups. Peppe Yankini, I
think the flare of bringing in a new manager and
having them come in, we know it lights a fire
under their behinds and we've said that all the time,
we say that with Marino and other managers. For me,
I think the spark has run out in terms of
that um. For Milan, this is real. This is some
(46:27):
of the best football that they had played in years,
and there's no denying it. Right, They're just having the
incapability of putting it together for ninety minutes. But if
they played the way they played against Enter for the
first stef the way they played against Hub for the
full ninety minutes and Cope Italia, they're going to be Fiorentina.
And I know I kind of like changed my opinion
(46:47):
a little bit on this, But if Milan that's a
sustainable way of playing, right, It's not about outside the
box shots coming into the back of the net. It's
about stringing together multiple passes creating your chances. Sella, No
Blue is missing the match up against Torino, so if
he is rested and comes back again in this matchup
against Fiorgentina, I love that personally. And if Paquetta plays
(47:09):
well against Torino as well during midweek, that's something you
gotta like because the morale is getting boosted with all
these guys that you thought would be leaving as of
right now. I think if you're leaning towards a winner
in this, I think I would lean Melan. I think
the most likely result would be a draw to to draw,
even simply because I like the over. I think there's
gonna be goals in this because both these teams can
(47:30):
create chances. It's all about their defending. And at the
end of the day, I like Nilans center backs better.
I like Melon's goalkeeper way better. I personally still think
he's the best in the league. I might be biased.
I don't really care, But at the end of the day,
do you see it going over two and a half goals?
Because I think we know Serdia more defensive, we don't
see as many goals. Two and a half kind of
(47:52):
feel sick. No, I agree I I go over two
and a half, I would not be surprised if it's
a two minus. Yeah, it's not that bad as as
a minus number. Uh. And you could still get a
draw for plus two thirty as well, so hey, you
could get the high scoring draw like you mentioned. Even
if it takes Custo really to do something, you know,
Kissa could wake up. He's it seems that he does
(48:13):
something against the better known teams like against Napoly had
probably his best game of the season, you know, and
against you that he tends to do well, So you
never know. Against Milan he could do it again. Um,
but I could see the chances going in since Ebra's calm,
I mean, it's it's just decidable. It's it's really just
been a change of pace and Silva coming. I mean,
(48:36):
you never know, and especially with I'm I have been
impressed about how Ebra's taken layout kind of under his
way into you kind of see amazing to Revage has
almost been like a new signing, as if they signed
him in January, because I think he's been one of
the three best players since a whole not he've been
great and he's been coming up big. Um, and I
(48:57):
like to you look at me on Twitter, and you
look at after the games, uh, and especially the ones
where they win and allow or Ebra contributes to something,
and they put always a picture of how out Loud
just stares at Ebra. It's like he's it's it's just
he's admired. That's great. That's just great to see as well,
because you see a young guy knowing that a man
(49:17):
near forty is still producing and doing it at that
level for a club he's played for already, and you
know they're looking towards the future. Now Ebra's not there
for that long. He's this is it comes of his
stupid garden, sells some seats, but he's still producing as well.
It's just a culmination of multiple things. But with those
(49:38):
two guys as well, I feel like those they can
get goals as well in this game, you know, I Fina,
like you mentioned, already, nothing to you know, really worry
about defensively, so I could see a high scoring shootout.
But I still like the draw, like you mentioned. I
just wanted to mention that because since Ebra's comments, Milan
hasn't been dropping them points. So drawing over to and
over Okay, I can do that, all right, well, we
(50:00):
obviously know that the story that we've been discussing has
been financial fair play. And if some of you don't
know the basics of what financial fair play technically is,
what it is is to prevent teams from going bankrupt, right,
because a lot of teams spend money that they don't
necessarily have, and in turn, you lose money, you go bankrupt.
(50:21):
There's a club that's gone, and then all of a
sudden you're sitting there saying, Okay, we have a major
issue on our hands because there's clubs like Brussia Dorman
who almost went bankrupt me on themselves were in so
much debt that if it wasn't for Elliott the hedge
fund coming in and bailing them out, they would have
been potentially relegated. And you can't have that. You can't
(50:41):
have that in the game where you're sitting around saying
to yourself, all right, there's all these teams that aren't
spending money that they have. You have to spend what
you make, right, and that's TV revenue, ticket sales, selling
match day stuff, whether it's tickets, just all general revenue
that a club is making. Um, you can't spend more
(51:01):
than what you're making right, because then you're running at
a negative loss at the end of the day. There's
been breaches now, and we've known there's been breaches because
there's been a lot of sketchy dealings over the years
where players are going for more than what actual clubs
are worth. Right, Fiorentina's going for like a hundred eighty
million euros and Poppy is getting sold for two million
(51:22):
euros And you're sitting there thinking to yourself, how does
a club simply afford one player during that season for
that much money. There's fraudulent sponsorships and that's basically what
Manchester City got popped for, UM, saying that they're making
this money where it's really coming from another place. UM.
But now, the story that came out on Monday was
(51:43):
that Italy is going to be investigated now, and you
and I are very well knowledgeable on the subject. We
know there's been murmurs. We've seen sketchy dealings of of
players being dealta clubs for record fees that don't spend
money like that, and it all intertwines with one club
and that club is who you lent this, you vent this.
(52:06):
So we we do have a little bias against them.
But when you see guys like Odetto and Stefano Stuardo
going to clubs like Genoa and Sumtoria for record fees,
you start thinking to yourself, maybe there's some underlying issue there.
And for me that the thing too really quick just
to mention before we wrap this up, is like the
whole Ronaldo thing. That's one thing you also look at
(52:27):
because there's rumors of hey on Jelly and Fiat, you know,
fueling that that uh, that move, and this story isn't
over basically just starting. It's a rumor, but the show
is over. We'll be back next week and we'll be
talking about a lot of other issues through offer sports
(52:47):
grid dot com Betting insights and entertainment at your fingertips
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Enjoy the show, and thanks so much for listening. Hello everybody,
(00:26):
and welcome back to The Free Kick. Martino Puccio Gio
Cosalino with you here. Chelsea is on vacation in Columbia.
I don't know where she is exactly, she just travels
around the whole world, but she'll be back here next week.
Are you excited for the Champions League? Because Champions League
is back today. We've been waiting to talk about this
from on this show for months, and luckily now we're
(00:48):
in another time slot so we can talk about some
of these games too. I know. Yeah, that's finally because
we weren't able to get to all the group stage
games that were earlier on in the season. But now
we can get to some of these games earlier in
the episode because in about forty five minutes or so,
they're gonna start kicking off. You could watch the games
on TNT, I believe over here in the United States. Um,
(01:08):
So basically, let's get into it right because we've been
talking about the matchup since they came out way back when,
a couple of months ago. But to me, the important
thing to bet on here is recent form. Forget about
what happened in the group stage. That's pretty much irrelevant now.
The only bearing that that has is how some teams
play on the road against some of the top opponents.
(01:31):
A Monopoly, which is one of the teams that I
want to get into because you we know your cynical.
You're very negative. You don't really believe Monopoly as much
as you honestly should because Bars ain't that great, right,
and we talked about this from time and time again.
They're playing a little bit better on the weekend for
La Liga. Messy is just absolutely on fire, best player
(01:51):
in the world still to this day. Butnopoly again, they've
shown the tendency to play up to their opponents and
then down to their opponents. They beat you way, but
then they lose to a let check. They go on
the road, they get up points against Liverpool, where not
many teams have been able to do so, do you
believe in them? You think they got a shot here?
I think they have an outside shot. I'll start with
(02:11):
the negative. Since I'm such a negative person, might as
well start with the negative. The negatives here is the
defense from last year. It's not the same as as
as last year, even though it seemed improved from the
transit market. Right we saw that they signed Monoloss and
on paper it was DiLorenzo, who was very good from
from Mpoleague coming in. He's had a good season. Uh,
and then you have Monolosque and and Clibally left back.
(02:34):
It's still Mono Rui, you know. And what he's out
between Ghulam and Lupeka because we don't really have a
backup left back right now. Really Goulan has been injured.
He just came back. But the big partnership that was
made so much of was Monolastic Clibly. Cullibly gets hurt
and it's really just Monoloss and then Maximovitch gets hurt
and you move your right back to center back. That
(02:55):
was a bad part. Now they're healthy, well, Clebally's apparently reinjured,
but max him Wich has been back. He's been decent
in the past couple of games, so you have that
center back partnership. That's the only negative because if you
look at last year, right, we didn't concede as many
goals as already and now at this point in season
not even it's it's it's actually terrible. I think we
only have a plus three differential or something like that.
(03:16):
So that worries me when you look at Messy, right,
because Messy is always that that guy for Barcelona and
right now it's it's been Messy FC. He's been doing everything,
you know, but this could be the part where Gree's
mom might wake up, you don't know. But they're without
he has to but they're without Suarez, so that's a
little bit better for Napoly to not have to guard
(03:36):
so many people. Um. But I just want to say
for the positive side that Monopoly has played well on
the road, so when they have to go to campnew
hopefully they are able to do that. And they have
played up to competition, like you said, they've been eat
that away and cape Vali of the first like they've
beaten Liverpool at home and gotten a point away. Um,
and they've beaten Ventus at home. I know that was
(03:59):
at home, but that was a big game with some
people out, so yeah, they do have a chance. Well also,
I forget to mention Dembele is out for Barcelona too,
so that plays a part into Napoly being a little
bit weak on defense. But it kind of negates itself
a little bit because bars is wearing a little thin
in terms of being up top there. Butnoply plush two
ninety to advance to the next round because those are
(04:21):
some of the things that you could do there. The
important thing here is and Barcelona struggled a lot on
the road and the knockout stages in recent years. We
saw with Liverpool, we saw with Roma, Nopoly just simply
shuts them out at home end at the San Bolo,
get a couple of goals there, you know, even if
it's a one or two nothing victory. And then this
(04:43):
even goes back to when Barcelona was playing lowly me
lines back in the group stage, because they had opportunities
to knock them out one nothing too to nothing win
for Monopoly. All of a sudden, you're feeling really good
about yourself because then the pressure is on for Barcelona.
They're not playing great. I think I think they get
knocked down in Copa del Rey and now their their
(05:05):
their chances of winning La Liga are dwindling. So as
of right now, there's a tone of pressure on Barcelona.
For Napoli, we discussed this preseason. It's really just if
they had a chance to fight for the Scudetto, which
at this point it's impossible to do so scrap that
they have a chance of winning Coupi Italia. They can
make a deep run in the Champions League. They could
(05:25):
actually salvage their season somewhat because you're bringing in a
lot of money in terms of that. But that's one
of those matchups. I think that is potentially one of
the best long shot odds for a team in terms
of odds to advance to the next round. Plus two
ninety is a team to look at. Another one that's
the underdog to advance in the next round, Real Madrid.
Man City. We're gonna get into what Man Cities issues
(05:48):
are later on into the show, but Man City as
a whole, they haven't been playing great this season. They've
failed to really challenge for the title because Liverpool is
already securing their spot at the Champions League next season.
As of right now, Man City does not have a
great track record of playing well in the Champions League.
Spurs basically on them. They can't. They couldn't knock out
(06:10):
Monica when they face him. It looked like they were
on their way to potentially go to their first ever
Champions League final. As of right now, I'm not confident
Real Madrid's plus one safety to advance to the next round.
I said it since the draw came out weeks ago,
months ago. I said Real Madrid, without a doubt, is
going to beat Man City. I still believe that to
this day. We've been on Real Madrid time and time again,
(06:33):
more of the same. Like, do you understand why City
is the favorite? Absolutely? I I agree. I don't understand
why City is the favorite, to be honest, especially if
you get plus money on Real Madrid you jump for that.
Um But I I completely agree there's no reason to
jump off the realm train. And I know they might
have slipped up this past weekend with the draw and whatnot.
You know, and now you're looking at a lout le
(06:54):
go it's close again. Round has been the better team
by far, better defensively, so that's why what manson one
of the top three defenses in terms of goals allowed
in this Europe Yeah, exactly, and Aguero is going to
be that big test because you know he's been hot
more hot lately, at least for its competition exactly to
(07:15):
prove himself a little bit. And I think that, to
be honest with you, Raal Madrid has what it takes
to really nullify Aguare. I think when you have most
of the back Ron at the back, their whole defensive
line is has been you know, masterful this season, and
even when they can't score some goals they can't win. Uh,
in La Liga, they're able to pull out a draw. Right.
(07:36):
Sometimes draws are important because in the end, if if
you only lost one game, but you have you know,
six or seven draws and you're able to you know,
rack up some points that way. When Bars is losing
some games, that's important. But for Champions League, there's no
reason why you don't take plus money here. Rameadar has
gone and done. You saw in the in the group
(07:56):
stage all you know, they had a decent group for them.
At least you mentioned it group. It doesn't matter anymore, uh,
they got it done regardless. They were playing most of
the season without hazard as well. He's been usually decent
for Chelsea in the Champions League in his proven track record.
You bring him back and now you have you know,
you have people on the bench at Yeovich who can
(08:16):
still come in and you never know, produce something for
you as well, like he did in Europe last season
for his German side. So I'm I'm still impressed with
Real Madrid here. I don't think that you have to
you you should jump off that train. Um and Man
City might have a distraction. This might this band that
they have that they are appealing and whatnot. It might
be a motivation for them. We've never seen this and
(08:38):
the timing could not be worse for Them's unprecedented, it
really is it to happen midway through and right before
a knockout stage, right, it's not even that as just
during the Premier League and they have nothing else to
worry about. They have to worry about Real Madrid and
advancing in the knockout rounds of the Champions League. This
is It's insane, honestly. So I don't know if this
would be a motivations then or it could be a distraction.
(08:59):
Well and when more point, because we're gonna get into
it afterwards. There is apparently a clause that we're in
all these players contracts that since Manchester City has these
issues with financial fair play, is a breach within the contracts.
So technically they might be able to walk this summer,
depending on the appeal. So if guys are able to walk,
then that means their futures and secure your futures and
(09:19):
scre and we talk about this all the time, whether
it's managers getting fired, whether it's players having an unsuccessful season.
Monopoly is one of the examples that we talk about.
You don't know about the futures. If you don't know
what your future is, how are you able to stay focused,
not only for the season, especially in the biggest annual
competition that this sport has to offer. And for me,
I don't understand why people would be a shoeman from
(09:43):
Manchester City, right, It's not about I think Manchester City
clearly as the capability of advancing to the next round.
That's not what we're saying. What we're saying here is
Manchester City isn't issuing they shouldn't be the favorite because
at the end of the day, we talk about current
form is important, but history all so matters, and the
history for Manchester City is that they've never done this
(10:04):
before and this is, without a shadow of a doubt,
the hardest competition to get over the hump for right.
I mean, how many times do we talk about Cuventus,
one of the best clubs in the world of all time,
they can't win this competition. They've lost seven finals, that's
the most out of any club of all time, and
they're still struggling to this day with one of the
greatest players of all time. With that. Now Manchester City
(10:25):
they have injuries on defense, they have issues with f FP,
they don't know if their players are staying and at
the end of the day, you're sitting yourself saying why
are they favorite again against the greatest club that has
ever played in this competition in Real Madrid? And seemingly
they're on the come up now. They're a lot better
than they were last year. Their defense is certainly a
lot better and they have the depth to do this,
(10:46):
whereas Manchester City, I'm not totally convinced by that, and
they have a difficult lay against Leicester City as well. Um,
excuse me, which is very important in terms of qualifying
for next year's but as of right now they're banned
for the next two years and we don't even know
about that with the appeal. So for me, there's just
so much negativity surrounding Manchester City, so much surrounding the players,
(11:10):
that somehow they're the favorites. To me, it just doesn't
make sense when you add up all the variables. So
how about this, I'll make it a little bit easier
for you. I know where you're probably gonna leave Real
Madrid or Anapoly to advance to the next round. Real Madrid,
I assume, is your favorite. To do that out of
its way more likely than to Uh, just a whole
(11:31):
vibe around the teams is completely different. Real Madrid trending
upwards compared to last year, and pretty much it's just
been a constant thing throughout this whole season. Uh. You
know they're out of the Copadal right as well, right,
so it's it's a weird uh Spanish Cup without Barsa
and Real Madrid. We don't ever see that happening. It
hasn't happened in so many years. But Real Madrid is
(11:51):
definitely a higher favorite Thannopoly Anopoly, Like you said, they
do have that outside shot. I agree with you there.
I'm not gonna be too depressed about the team because
they have showed that outside of the league, in other
cups they're able to somehow compete. And I don't know
if that's just because, hey, they have the mentality that
we already lost the school that though we we we
just look terrible doing it. They've won four other last five.
(12:13):
But then you loose to litch it that, you know,
that makes it seemed a little worse. But out of
the two, you gotta lean towards Real Madrezze more likely
to pick. If you're gonna pick between those two, um
out of guaranteed matchups that we've seen, Hugh Rey, Leon, Liverpool,
Athletico Madrid. Do you think those like Huve and Liverpool
are absolute chat up is down to advance. I think yeah,
(12:36):
Liverpool and you weis should in Liverpool. I'm not really worried,
but if they lose, that's a massive shock. It would
be a massive shock. But when we come back, we're
gonna be talking with our friends from Mackie Score, sports
(12:58):
grid dot com, Betting Inside and Entertainment at your fingertips
as our team covers the most important topics in sports wagering,
real time odds, predictive betting models, expert picks and more.
Want the edge, then get on the grid sports grid
dot com. Hello everybody, and welcome back to the Free Kick.
(13:22):
Martino Puccio here discussing with our friends from ACTU Score.
We're gonna get two games from them today. Shalk lives
Big Lights. Big has absolutely been unbelievable this season fighting
for the title in Bundesliga. Do they continue their hot
season with a win here? Yeah? Indeed, Leipzig season has
been fantastic so far. They are effectively fighting for the
(13:46):
title in bundes League against Buyer, Moonshin and couple of others,
which is very refreshing considering how dominant Buyern has been
in the past seasons. Leipzig is one point behind at
the moment after twenty two games played, so a lot
of football to be played, but Leipzig looks like a
real deal in the challenger's position at the moment um.
(14:11):
They're also playing in Champions League knockout stages, which means
they have to travel to London on the nineteenth to
face Tottenha mots Peru, which means it might be a
bit of a burden then to go to Chalk on
the twenty second. There is only three days between and
of course the main target is the Champions League, although
(14:33):
Leipzig will probably want to challenge for bundes League Championship
as well. UM they're not very deep team, so they
probably have to use the same starters for the most part,
at least in both games. Um Letsig is in good form.
They won Verdebrem and last time around they drew with
two of the top four teams Buyer Munsion and Boosia
(14:55):
mentioned glad Bug, so they've got good things going on
for them. UM shall Ke is sixth currently in the Bundesliga.
The season has been decent so far. The probably where
they are supposed to be aiming for top four, which
is the Champions League qualifications spots. UM they are not
(15:18):
in very good form. They've only won one game out
of the last five. They've drown three times during that period,
so they do need to start winning if they plan
on getting their qualification for the Champions League this season. UM.
In simulations, Leipzig is a massive favorite. They win sixty
(15:38):
five point four percent of the simulations. Shall Key only
wins thirteen point three and the draw gets twenty one
point three percent, So I would say the Leipzig will
win quite comfortably and get the three points they really
need in order to challenge for the title. Hopefully, for
their sake, they could still challenge for the title there.
(15:59):
But we love talking totals on the show. I know
you guys always have great information on that. If you
would have to bet a total number in this game,
what would it be? Yeah, it's a very tricky question
this one. On the other hand, Lipzig is one of
the highest scoring teams. They've scored more than two point
five goals per game on average, and in total in
their games there's been three point sixty eight goals scored,
(16:22):
so it's a very over team overall. Shall Ki, on
the other hand, is a very defensive team. Defense is
something that's been working for them, but they've only scored
one point forty five goals themselves. So which one should
you take? The total line for this game for events
is quite high. Um in simulations, Leipzig will score two
(16:48):
point seventeen goals while shall Get scores zero point ninety,
so it's barely over three goals in simulations, but I
would still go for the over. Hopefully they provide as
an entertaining matchup in bundes League, but we're going to
be moving over to the Premier League now Manchester United
versus Watford. Manchester United have a glimmer of hope to
(17:08):
make the Champions League. Do they pick up this win
against Watford in this matchup? Yes, especially now with Manchester
City probably facing the band from the Champions League, the
Premier League number five spot became very very attractive and
that's something that Manchester United can aim for. Although they
(17:29):
with their pedigree, they should be up there already, but
they're not. Their ninth at the moment and their five
points behind that fifth spot which is being held by
Dottenham Hotspur at the moment, so there is a lot
of work to do for Olign Associates team. Um, they've
had a terrible season. In all fairness, they haven't looked
(17:52):
better at any point. They've managed to beat a couple
of the worst teams in the league and then snatch
points from Manes the City and a couple of the
better ones, but in general they've looked very very bad,
especially in games that they should have won quite comfortably.
They lost Burnley at home a couple of weeks ago,
(18:13):
which was a complete disaster in every regard um overall,
they think very mediocre even with the new players in place,
and the injuries are not helping either. What Foot, on
the other hand, is a very bad team. They are
lacking in every aspect. They're leaking goals, they're not scoring.
(18:34):
All the good things that had happened for them are
are pretty much gone. But there's still only one point
into the relegation zone, so every game is like the
last game of for them in order to survive the
drop um. In the simulations, what food or a draw
(18:56):
seems like a better choice than Manchester United win. United
wins forty eight percent of the game, so they are
the favorites, but Watford wins twenty two point seven and
the draw gets twenty nine point three, So I'd say
the smaller money would go for either to draw or
even the road win. In this case. Yeah, Manchester United
(19:18):
should be able to pick up a win here, so
hopefully you guys can make some money in terms of that.
As for Watford, they're absolutely been dreadful again this season.
Do they even get a goal during this match? Like
we've established, Watford is not a very good team, so
they're not the best in scoring either, but they've actually
gotten a bit better in that regards. I think the
(19:40):
bigger problem is the defense. They've only been zeroed out
to scored zero goals in one of their last nine games,
so there's it's something that's been improving for them, and
their players do have the quality to score goals. But
that being said, in the simulations they scored zero point
eighty three goals on average, which is quite low but
(20:02):
still indicates that they should get one goal against Manchester
United and if they're lucky, that might just be enough.
All right, Tommy, thanks for all the information on Manchester
United verse Watford guys. Place your bets on it. Active
Scores absolutely fantastic. Check them out everywhere you can on Twitter,
at act you score and ACTU score dot com geo.
(20:24):
But the real story here is Manchester City obviously getting
breach for FFP violations banned for the Champions League two
seasons next season season after that thirty million euro fine,
because the first time we've really seen a club like
this that we kind of had some issues with the
amount that they've been spending over the course of the
past decade. Obviously their rise to prominence, winning their first
(20:47):
Premier Premier League title in decades. Uh, there was just
so much happening for them for them in this decade,
new owners, lots of money being spent, and finally it
bit them. Yeah, I mean, this is, like you said, unprecedented.
Doesn't really happen in the middle of the season, right
before Champions League knockout round that they're gonna be playing
(21:07):
against Real Madrid. This is a lot for them to
handle at one moment um. And also, you know, right
in the middle of real league season, although they're not
really in contention, that's pretty much wraps um. But this
is this is insane. I mean, what's gonna happen from
this is what the most interesting thing is going to
be because they're also appealing it, so we don't know
if that can be all returned. So we've see we've
seen teams like Melon go through the appeal process and
(21:30):
they don't get as heavy as a band or whatever
it could be. There's rumors saying that it could only
be a one year band, but one year ban from
the Champions League is drastic considering how much money you
bring in as a club. We've seen a cripple a
ton of clubs that haven't been able to go into
the Champions League. Milan again, I know it's one of
those examples. But when you're not bringing in that type
(21:50):
of money, you're paying all these players these wages, they have,
these transfer fees that they need to complete. You know,
this could be catastrophic for them because we've never seen
anything like this competing in the Champions a year and
year out, the amount of wages that they have going
towards this. I mean, what is Pep Guardiola going to
do at this point because his legacy takes a hit
even though he wasn't even at Manchester City when these
(22:12):
violations technically happened in sixteen, and we don't even know
what else is going to happen Elise on that front,
what what do you see happening here? Is a two
year ban really going to be upheld? Well, A lot
of people, actually, you know, some experts or whatever you
wanna call about animal analysts are actually some of them
seem confident that something can be either be given more
(22:34):
linear to punishment where it can actually overturned. I don't
think you can overturn, so can't you can't ban them
for two years, they appeal and then they take it back.
You have to there has to be at least a
one year man. I think the fine absolutely up home,
you can stay it because it's kind of funny to though,
because you're finding someone for having financial issues, so it's
(22:54):
like getting an overdraft charge in your bank account, Like
I have no money, don't charge me more money because
now I'm really screwed. Um. But look, it could be
a potential breach on the contract. We don't know all
the details of these players contracts, but if there's a
breach between the contract and these players are able to
walk for free, makeses United Manchester City. I don't see
this as like a loyal club where it's like Juventus
(23:15):
going down to citya B where these players are staying
loyal to the club because all the rich history and
everything they've done for the club and vice versa. Growing
up through the UTH system. Manchester City isn't that kind
of cull for me too. I think we saw Pep
come out and he said, hey, I'm gonna stay at
the club as long as I'm happy. Well, if you're
a band, I don't think you're you know happy. We've
(23:35):
seen I mentioned this before behind the scenes, but we've
seen that Saudi a Juventus isn't really working out or
doesn't look like it is. You know, maybe winning at
Champions League might be able to save him, who knows,
But even then, I don't think fans on the side.
I mean there's you know, right exactly, And I think
that's also a great point. Pep can go back there.
I could see him landing at opening and players, you know,
(23:56):
at that point go across the street to Manchester United.
That's true, you don't you know? And players at that
point do you really stay? I mean, you have the
likes of the Boina, who's you know, one of the
best midfielder. If he's not exactly you have him, you
have sterling Um, you have Aguero Guerrell. Finally make a
change of scenery. I mean, you stay in the Champions
League this year. A guerrels on the tail end of
(24:18):
his career and he's saying to himself, okay, if we're
not playing in this competition. I played a ton for
this club. I did everything I could. I want to
go out and leave. I want to go to a
club that can offer me the chance to win a
Champions League, so I definitely see the older guard of
players leaving there. I know le Roy Sane again as
one of those names. I think he could potentially leave
because I know there was rumors of him going back
(24:38):
to going to play for Bayern Munich, and I think
that's certainly a possibility because they're not spending money on Cortino.
Let's be real, that's not gonna happen um for me,
There's just so many possibilities that can go on here,
and as of right now, they have to focus on
the Champions League. And that's why we discussed that last
segment on are we really that confident in Manchester are advancing?
(25:00):
Because as of right now, I necessarily don't believe that
with this looming over their heads. We don't know how
long this appeal process is going to be, and there's
obviously going to be more teams that they're gonna have
to investigate, because let's face it, Manchester City isn't the
only one which financial irregularities. You're gonna start seeing the uh,
(25:21):
all the top European leagues now finally being investigated. You're
gonna see probably we saw the rumors, they're probably gonna
be investigating back into Italy, maybe a club like Juventus
PSG hunt, I mean, how can you not investigate PSG
with the moves they make their name squads exactly, So
you're gonna see all these teams start being investigated. The
(25:43):
top ones at least sports grid dot Com Betting, insights
and entertainment at your fingertips seven as our team covers
the most important topics in sports wage real time odds,
predictive betting models, expert picks, and more. Want the edge,
(26:04):
then get on the grid sports grid dot Com. Alright,
we're back here with the free kick. We're gonna review
some of the matchups that we discussed on last week shows. Obviously,
inter Verse Latsio was probably the biggest matchup that we discussed.
(26:27):
We just had to get it in there because simply
when a team wins the league seven eight years in
a row, you you want to route for a new challenger,
a new team to step up and win there. And
as of right now, it's been lots every single time, weekend,
week out. Everyone's kind of sitting there saying, oh, does
Lotsio have about it? Takes Immobile is eventually gonna burn out.
(26:48):
They can't keep this up for a whole season. Well.
As of right now, Latsio is in second place, one
point behind U that had a massive win against Inter
and Geo. Honestly, Ter, I'm not that surprised that this
happened to him. I know I wasn't absolutely confident with
them coming into this matchup. They still had the injuries.
Handanovitch was not playing in this matchup. Although they did
(27:10):
come back and smack Melan in the phase four to
two in the derby, Dolla Mondina, I mean to me,
this wasn't a shoeing for them, right, This is a
very difficult game on the road Studio Olympic goal. We
know how well Latsio have been playing against all the
top teams and they showed it once again. Milinkovic Savage
scoring that goal against Inter in the dire moments after
(27:33):
Brozovich made a goal line saving deflection, but he gets
it right back. He puts it in the bottom left
corner of the net, and you're sitting there saying to yourself, Okay,
was that the moment right there? Is that the moment
that Latsio truly believes, not just Latsio, everyone else, betters,
casual fans Latsio fans, inter fans, all these people finally
(27:57):
believe that Latsio could potentially win this with that. Well,
I just want to touch on in that real quick
because you mentioned it to me as I've already last
week after you saw Milan you know, give up the
two year lead and needed to come back, you still
mentioned to me that you were really impressed with in Debt, honestly,
and that you know, if if Milan had just played
the same half as the first half, we wouldn't even
(28:19):
having to be having that conversation. They'd be further There
was because there was a few underlying issues within that
game that you said to yourself, Okay, if enters down
to nothing against the team that you could depend upon,
like a lat Seal or a hu you're sitting there
saying to yourself, no way, because they had a crazy
goal with Bosovich, they just by the skin of their
teeth got the ball on side. Um. I mean that
(28:43):
defending by Simon Kierre against Lukaku. That's not gonna happen
against the top defense where everybody's just simply ball watching,
like you're not going to score four goals again, and
especially you're going on the road at the Olympic goal
against Latsio, who's been fantastic a chair to be by
the way, that was an APPS on Real Game Lucaku
Martinez one of the best duos in Europe that we
(29:05):
discussed about weekend week out on this show. We're completely nullified.
They did absolutely nothing in a chair, But from my opinion,
that's one of the top three to five performances he's
had in his career. So again, I mean, just speak
on it, man, because because what is happening over there
is inter dwindling dwindling a little bit, or is this
(29:25):
lot seo simply being too good this year? It's a
little bit of both because for me, we see the
in usually after the winsor break, right, what happens. They
collapse and they have drop some points. We've seen it
happen even going into the winsor break They had a
couple of draws against some questionable teams like Fiodentina was
one of the games as well. So you see things
like that and you think to yourself, is this going
(29:47):
to happen again? Then you look to kunte. Antonio Conte
is their manager. He's probably the reason they're in third place.
To begin with, because even with their roster, you need
a coach to you know, bring the town together and
use it well. Right, And he asks for He asked
for those guys he wanted to actually young, Hey, look,
actually don't scored a goal. It wasn't enough for that game.
But he has been pretty good for them he asked for.
(30:07):
Lukaku has had a great season and people who are
doubting it from his Man United days are forgetting about that.
That's not what they're worrying about. But at the same time,
if if they're going to collapse again and then you
look again and what is he what has he been doing?
Then he keeps blaming it on other things and then
you know those type of things also players. But I
think the players are rallied around him. I'm just saying
(30:29):
that if it continues, they could unrattle quickly. And I
hopefully that's not the case for for Intet's sake, because
they've worked a lot to you know, get to where
they are now and challenge uvent thus but now they're
already falling a bit behind. It's way too soon and
at least three points, only three points. It's one game.
But for on speaking, a lot to his behalf. They
were also a team that going into this season, like
(30:49):
I said, people said Conte, okay, they're gonna challenge Lotso
you look back at them and it's like, okay, are
they gonna be that? Yeah, we have I personally had
them in the running for a fourth spot because to me,
I thought it was a bit of a down year
last year for them. And and when you're so thin
with a roster like this and you're going into all
these competitions. Guys are coming off the World Cup, you know,
(31:12):
I mean, we'll excuse me another World Cup. They were,
They were coming off other competitions over the summer, and
it affects them. We I mean, we see it with
Gulabilly over um A Napoli, right, They just kept such
tired legs that they don't get the proper rest that
they need um and it affected them over the course
of the season. But now they kept that same core.
There's that consistency that they know how to play with
(31:33):
each other. Whereas there's a lot of revolving doors around
another teams and especially the team they share a stadium
with in Roma, there's so many moving parts over there,
Whereas Lotsio. You know, it's the combination of immobile A
playing absolutely unreal. It's it's Milinkovic Savage finally playing up
to that price tag of what a hundred and fifty
million years probably just went up another twenty million euros
(31:54):
considering how Lotito operates over there. But for me, this
is a team right now if you believe in Latsio
and right and if you buy into them beating into
beating huve A twice, not dropping points against the other teams,
if you believe they could win the Scudetto, now is
the time to go put your money down on them,
because as of right now, hu has gotta worry about
(32:17):
copy Italia. You know, they only drew against Milan and
that one they don't look good at all. This is
probably the worst we've seen them in a decade. And
then you could also look to the fact that they
have to worry about Champions League. And we know the
whole purpose for huve A getting Cristiano Ronaldo was to
win the Champions League. They went to the finals, they
went to this they won Scudetto, so that's not what
(32:39):
it's about. It's about them winning that competition. So this
is a perfect time to capture them. Are you buying in?
And if you buy in, do buying that I'm buying?
I would buy it now. Definitely, don't wait on it.
If you're talking about Lotsio winning the title just because
they have they have the pieces, right, you mentioned already immobulus,
I won't really talk about it. It's only four goals
(33:00):
off of scoring thirty, which only he would be the
third player to do so since the nineteen and a
lot of those have been penalties. But hey, you also
have to step up in your birth the penalties, right,
So he's barely missed out, has even missed one of
the season. I can't believe so, but he has scored
less penalties than Christiano, by the way, and then compared,
I mean, Dave, hey, sometimes you need luck on your
side to right or things to go your way. Well,
(33:22):
actually have have drawn you know, thirteen or fourteen penalties
whatever it is, because the mobile has those goals. But listen,
if that's what they earned there, that's what they're getting called,
then they're they're None of them are really that controversial either.
None of them. You could sit there and say maybe
the one yesterday that you're sitting there saying to yourself, Okay,
they didn't they didn't deserve that. That wasn't a penalty
that that warranted them to go from the spot. Right,
(33:43):
there's nothing that controversial within the rules. But correct me
if I'm wrong. I mean, at the end of the day,
you still have to finish these penalties. It's not like
a free throw where it's just you against the basket.
It's you against the goalkeeper. You have to get the
right spot. You have to hit it correctly. Like there's
so many different variables going to a penalty kick. Then
most average fans realize, right, you have to have the
(34:04):
mentality to when you put that ball down, you know
where you're gonna go with it. Right, Usually a lot
of these footballers, they put the ball down, they already
know where they're going, and you know, they might have
that last second switch, but they know where to slap them.
And listen, whether he's scoring goals against you know, five
goals against Litch for example, this and that. If he
has twenty six goals, he's gonna get done. And it'd
be one thing to have twenty six goals and your
(34:26):
teams in fifth because they're an average team. But he
has twenty six goals and whatever the number is, and
the team's up there contending for the title. So that's
one thing. You have Luis Alberta also who has eleven
assistant believe or whatever he's added to that now leading
the league and assist they have a chair being. You
look at their back line and you think to yourself,
you know, I wouldn't really share, by the way, replacing
(34:46):
arguably the best defender in the league right now and defry.
I mean that's that. That was a great changition by
to get him in there, but really quick, just to
wrap it up, if again into Alato, who do you
like more now at this point to win the title?
I think Montio I don't see like Latsio I you don't.
If they haven't choked by now or haven't started falling
(35:07):
by now, what's the reason to think so they've proved it.
They don't Europa League. They do not have districtly set
out for them right now. So look out for Lacio man.
Maybe they win their first Gudeto win over twenty years.
It would be the first different winner between Elon Inter
and Hugh at that point because there's not a lot
of parody in this league and especially over the past decade.
(35:29):
So let's see if Latio can pull that all. But
we're gonna head to Chelsea Spurs man and we've been
talking about this this this week. We technically did say
that we thought the top four was wrapped up for
the Premier League, but we also did say that it
wasn't a closed case, right because Spurs hired Marino. I
(35:50):
thought Marino was getting a little too harsh of criticism
simply because yeah, they didn't win a lot of trophies
at Manchester United, but look at Manchester United now ending
them in the second place was definitely a major accomplishment.
And again they're knocking of the door. They're knocking on
the door of the fourth spot in the Champions League.
This is the match to do it? Is this the
(36:11):
match that Spurs pull out a win. Here They had
another three to win over aston Villa over the weekend,
you know, the gritty three points that they're pulling out
points or points no matter what. There's no Harry Kane.
Still are they gonna beat Chelsea? But listen, without carry Kane,
They've still managed to get into this conversation right slowly,
but surely. Whether it's some draws they have, you know,
some losses here and there, but they've beaten some good teams.
(36:34):
They beat Man City as well, I believe. Um. They
also these two teams they haven't drawn in the last
ten matches against each other. Just to throw that sat
out to you, so one of these teams is gonna win.
I think in this game. I'm not even gonna sell
for a draw at this point. I think that you know,
the Spurs they also haven't lost in January eleven, so
that's two whole months now, five wins and two draws
(36:56):
and all comps in that in that span. Just to
throw that out there. Without Harry Kane, they've still gone
it done. Sauna's stepped up, he scored goals when they
needed to. You know, Monenios they're leading them to this
as well, and if they get this win, they'll be
either you know, depending on what Chelsea does midweek, because
you know that's also there, so we won't jump to
that conclusion. But either way, this is a game where
(37:17):
I think Spurs, even on the road you know at
Stanford Bridge, can go out there and pull out a win. Um.
I like the way you know, I think it'll be Uh,
it could be a shootout because both defensively aren't the greatest.
They're gonna concede. I feel like, and especially the Spurs
hasn't been the same defensively and whether that that's stemming
from you know, having Yeah, and that's great plus money,
(37:40):
and it's because they're on the road. I just wanted
to lean to Spurs just because I want that excitement.
If they get this win, it's it's gonna be a
shootout for fourth for the rest of the season. Yeah.
I think Chelsea's market was kind of indicative of that.
They didn't really add. Currently they're gonna get I think
is an amazing especially for the amount of money that
they're getting them. And that's kind of a trend that
(38:02):
you're seeing now with them because they did it with
plusitch last year. So we're gonna have to if you
have a pick in this money line is difficult. I
think I'm leaving Chelsea because at home, well, I'll do Spurs.
I'll be the I'll be the opposite because I'll be
the contrarian. I like them though it could edit in
a draw, but like I said, the history is showing
that these teams don't end in a draw. Um, I
(38:24):
like the Spurs. I'll alright, I got Chelsea, he has spurs.
But when we come back, we're gonna be talking about
some more top matchups. We're gonna be heading back to Italy.
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(38:51):
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last segment of the day. Can't we wait to get
(40:16):
into some of these matchups GEO, because Milan Fiorentina is
one of the better matchups that we have going on
in Italy this weekend. Obviously, Milan in much better form.
Can't really go off of the loss to head against
Inter because the derby's a derby. They bounced back, They
played fantastic against Cuba. They absolutely outplayed him. That's probably
the best I've seen him play against Hube since they
(40:39):
had Ibra last time in that matchup. Absolutely interesting match
up here though, because Fiorentina last time they played Milan
they went to go at the sun settle back when
they still had Vincenzo Montella, Marco Jim Paula. In this matchup,
both managers got the boot. They're out of there. We
got Papa Ianchini and then Stefano Piola Piola going against
(41:00):
his old team in Fiorentina. Pepe Ianchini. What a stupid
look that guy hasn't anybody who wears a hat with
a suit has got the dumbest get up possible, and
that's including Antonio Conte. We know why he does it
because he's got his stupid wig on and he can't
just get the hair and plans with Jankina. I don't
even know what the issue is. The guy is still bald.
I don't know why he doesn't even do anything to
(41:21):
fix his baldness. He just puts on a hat, looks
like an idiot. And that's honestly an insult to anybody
who's Italian because they're they're usually known for looking good
and being stylish over there. But just a stupid get
up by him, and that's probably where I'm leaning against.
Fiorentina absolutely smacked Milan in this matchup. Last time the
Deby was in there, Um, obviouslybody's a lot of time.
(41:44):
Would have been a great storyline. Not really sure what
the story is going to be with Reby there melon.
Obviously we're playing earlier in the week against Torino in
that matchup, so I think you should er caution there
because they might have a little bit less rest than
Fiodorentina does, who played over the weekend and they had
a great win for them. To me, I I know
(42:05):
this is plus money in terms of money line winning
for Fiorentina and Milan. Milan plays a little bit better
on the road than they do at home for whatever reason,
probably more pressure at home than there is on the
road for them to step up and play there. But
this is a vital game for Milan if they want
to make a Europa League Uh, Spot, I don't, I
(42:27):
don't know. I really, I'm dumbfounded by this matchup. I'm
not add percent confident heading into this as a Milan fan. Um.
To me, I think again, I think they could pull
out a win here, but I'm leaning draw for them. Yeah,
I could see that happening. Milan definitely is still in
the conversation for Europa League. Spot. You know, never you
never know what fourth they I think they're gonna get.
(42:48):
I don't think fourth is in my cards, but I
know you don't think that. But you never really know,
because it's there's still what thirteen games left in this
season or something like that, thirteen or fourteen, so you
just don't know what can happen between. Yeah, you never know.
If they advanced, they could start dropping points. And they
do have that ahead. Yeah, I feel like Napolis in
(43:11):
another ahead of Roma too, because Roman just is just
just just sinking. But looking listen, if you look at Fiorentino,
you look at their their their last couple of games,
they finally got a big win away from home actually,
which is weird, five one win against Samdio, and Fiorentina
hasn't really been scoring as many goals before that win
though they had lost three straight. They had it once
since January eighteen. Yes, who that January eighteenth win was
(43:34):
against Monopoly, of course, because Napoli is just crap. But whatever, Hey, listen,
that's not what we're talking about. But those three lasses
that Fiorentina did lose came against Eton and Copitalia, Juventus
and Atalanta in the league as well, so they did
play three really tough opponents. And Fiorentina this year isn't
the Fiorentina of last year a couple of years ago,
where they're you know, mid table or top eight and
(43:56):
could really uh cause you some trouble unless your anopoly.
But that's so I'll give him, you know, I'll just
discredit those, will not discredit those, but just those are
three tough opponents. That quality is not there. Yeah, I'm
not really gonna you know, just give a heavy account
on those or just take a heavy look into those.
But Milan just one loss, uh, you know, pending whatever
(44:18):
happens earlier with with a midweek um, but since January began,
they've been on fire as well. So I like Melan
in this game too. UM. I could see the worst case,
like you said, with heavy legs, maybe the draw um
and and if I had to pick, I probably picked
the draw. But if I had to favor money Line,
it would be Melan. I just feel like the qualities
is too, you know, much better on Fiord, I mean
(44:40):
on Meal on side than Fiordandine inside, it'd be hard
to argue that, you know, even kids of this season
hasn't really done anything. And it's it's sad to see
him hasn't even played up to like a forty million
dollar evaluation in my opinion, because every all the rumors
were always off to hum a seventy million euros. Maybe
Inter was interested in that include a couple of deals
players in a swap deal, But for me, he hasn't
(45:03):
been that and the story has been Kastrovelli has been
by far their best player, the absolute gem of Seria
this season. A bunch of teams are going to be
in on him. Probably Milan is one of those teams
considering their midfield issues. For me, I actually like the
over two and a half goals in this game, simply
because I don't love me Alan's defense. Their fullbacks are
(45:24):
you know what, we'll call it for what it is,
They're pretty bad. They don't know how to defend their
good going forward and a team like Fiorantino, who's better
going forward. You liked them in that Kiera Romagnoli. It's
a nice solid center back duel and they have played
well as like they absolutely, in my opinion, shut down
Gibala and and Cristiano Ronaldo. They were pretty much nullified
(45:44):
in that copy Italian matchup. Um Lucaco didn't really do
much of sites from that one goal where he was
just alone in the air. For that, For me, I
don't I don't see Fiedarantino actually winning this for me,
because I don't trust them at this point. They had
their nice little cute run last year in the second
half too, they were almost in danger of getting relegated
(46:06):
because they were losing so many matchups. Peppe Yankini, I
think the flare of bringing in a new manager and
having them come in, we know it lights a fire
under their behinds and we've said that all the time,
we say that with Marino and other managers. For me,
I think the spark has run out in terms of
that um. For Milan, this is real. This is some
(46:27):
of the best football that they had played in years,
and there's no denying it. Right, They're just having the
incapability of putting it together for ninety minutes. But if
they played the way they played against Enter for the
first stef the way they played against Hub for the
full ninety minutes and Cope Italia, they're going to be Fiorentina.
And I know I kind of like changed my opinion
(46:47):
a little bit on this, But if Milan that's a
sustainable way of playing, right, It's not about outside the
box shots coming into the back of the net. It's
about stringing together multiple passes creating your chances. Sella, No
Blue is missing the match up against Torino, so if
he is rested and comes back again in this matchup
against Fiorgentina, I love that personally. And if Paquetta plays
(47:09):
well against Torino as well during midweek, that's something you
gotta like because the morale is getting boosted with all
these guys that you thought would be leaving as of
right now. I think if you're leaning towards a winner
in this, I think I would lean Melan. I think
the most likely result would be a draw to to draw,
even simply because I like the over. I think there's
gonna be goals in this because both these teams can
(47:30):
create chances. It's all about their defending. And at the
end of the day, I like Nilans center backs better.
I like Melon's goalkeeper way better. I personally still think
he's the best in the league. I might be biased.
I don't really care, But at the end of the day,
do you see it going over two and a half goals?
Because I think we know Serdia more defensive, we don't
see as many goals. Two and a half kind of
(47:52):
feel sick. No, I agree I I go over two
and a half, I would not be surprised if it's
a two minus. Yeah, it's not that bad as as
a minus number. Uh. And you could still get a
draw for plus two thirty as well, so hey, you
could get the high scoring draw like you mentioned. Even
if it takes Custo really to do something, you know,
Kissa could wake up. He's it seems that he does
(48:13):
something against the better known teams like against Napoly had
probably his best game of the season, you know, and
against you that he tends to do well, So you
never know. Against Milan he could do it again. Um,
but I could see the chances going in since Ebra's calm,
I mean, it's it's just decidable. It's it's really just
been a change of pace and Silva coming. I mean,
(48:36):
you never know, and especially with I'm I have been
impressed about how Ebra's taken layout kind of under his
way into you kind of see amazing to Revage has
almost been like a new signing, as if they signed
him in January, because I think he's been one of
the three best players since a whole not he've been
great and he's been coming up big. Um, and I
(48:57):
like to you look at me on Twitter, and you
look at after the games, uh, and especially the ones
where they win and allow or Ebra contributes to something,
and they put always a picture of how out Loud
just stares at Ebra. It's like he's it's it's just
he's admired. That's great. That's just great to see as well,
because you see a young guy knowing that a man
(49:17):
near forty is still producing and doing it at that
level for a club he's played for already, and you
know they're looking towards the future. Now Ebra's not there
for that long. He's this is it comes of his
stupid garden, sells some seats, but he's still producing as well.
It's just a culmination of multiple things. But with those
(49:38):
two guys as well, I feel like those they can
get goals as well in this game, you know, I Fina,
like you mentioned, already, nothing to you know, really worry
about defensively, so I could see a high scoring shootout.
But I still like the draw, like you mentioned. I
just wanted to mention that because since Ebra's comments, Milan
hasn't been dropping them points. So drawing over to and
over Okay, I can do that, all right, well, we
(50:00):
obviously know that the story that we've been discussing has
been financial fair play. And if some of you don't
know the basics of what financial fair play technically is,
what it is is to prevent teams from going bankrupt, right,
because a lot of teams spend money that they don't
necessarily have, and in turn, you lose money, you go bankrupt.
(50:21):
There's a club that's gone, and then all of a
sudden you're sitting there saying, Okay, we have a major
issue on our hands because there's clubs like Brussia Dorman
who almost went bankrupt me on themselves were in so
much debt that if it wasn't for Elliott the hedge
fund coming in and bailing them out, they would have
been potentially relegated. And you can't have that. You can't
(50:41):
have that in the game where you're sitting around saying
to yourself, all right, there's all these teams that aren't
spending money that they have. You have to spend what
you make, right, and that's TV revenue, ticket sales, selling
match day stuff, whether it's tickets, just all general revenue
that a club is making. Um, you can't spend more
(51:01):
than what you're making right, because then you're running at
a negative loss at the end of the day. There's
been breaches now, and we've known there's been breaches because
there's been a lot of sketchy dealings over the years
where players are going for more than what actual clubs
are worth. Right, Fiorentina's going for like a hundred eighty
million euros and Poppy is getting sold for two million
(51:22):
euros And you're sitting there thinking to yourself, how does
a club simply afford one player during that season for
that much money. There's fraudulent sponsorships and that's basically what
Manchester City got popped for, UM, saying that they're making
this money where it's really coming from another place. UM.
But now, the story that came out on Monday was
(51:43):
that Italy is going to be investigated now, and you
and I are very well knowledgeable on the subject. We
know there's been murmurs. We've seen sketchy dealings of of
players being dealta clubs for record fees that don't spend
money like that, and it all intertwines with one club
and that club is who you lent this, you vent this.
(52:06):
So we we do have a little bias against them.
But when you see guys like Odetto and Stefano Stuardo
going to clubs like Genoa and Sumtoria for record fees,
you start thinking to yourself, maybe there's some underlying issue there.
And for me that the thing too really quick just
to mention before we wrap this up, is like the
whole Ronaldo thing. That's one thing you also look at
(52:27):
because there's rumors of hey on Jelly and Fiat, you know,
fueling that that uh, that move, and this story isn't
over basically just starting. It's a rumor, but the show
is over. We'll be back next week and we'll be
talking about a lot of other issues through offer sports
(52:47):
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