December 1, 2019 • 41 mins
Matt Striker and Davis Mattek recap each of today's 1PM NFL Sunday games while providing their takeaways. They also talk about their ideal sports investments for the rest of the season as well as the players fantasy players should consider picking up or trading before the fantasy football playoffs.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:21):
listening to the Sports Grid Network. We're the lovel Touch
Sound Pro Football rout Hey. Welcome everybody inside the studio.
(00:52):
It's that time again, time for the Pro Footfall Rewind,
the only show that goes forward in reverse. Adell I
seen the day's events in the NFL applying them to
your fantasy football needs. Hello everybody, my name is Match Striker.
Happy to be here and joining me as always a
man who has become, for my money, one of the
best fantasy fantasy analysts in the game today. Davis Mattock. Davis,
(01:16):
how you doing, my man? I'm doing great, great day
and DFS pretty good day for sweating out some season
long uh fantasy football playoff matchups and of course the
ever important sports investments also went pretty pretty pretty well.
How'd your day go? Actually? I was telling one of
the producers that I'm having my best day for the
(01:37):
entire season today, and I think a lot of it
has to do with the conversations that you and I
have talking about who to pick up, who to drop,
who to start to keep our eyes on. And I
really think that the work behind the desk and the
work that you're doing is really starting to pay off. Well,
I hope. So it's It's been a very successful year
from myself, definitely for the Roto Expert subscribers. So now
(01:58):
I'm just glad to be able to hear too about
So what are some things that you hit with today?
Start us off? What were some of your big plays
that that panned out well. Robert Woods, one of my
highest own guys in seasonal, one of my highest own
guys in DFS, tied the record this season for most
targets in a game with nineteen. Also a huge game
(02:19):
from al Sean Jeffrey a hundred thirty seven receiving yards
and a touchdown against Miami. Really needed that game from
him so too too. Really, big wide receiver performances spurred
on my big day, absolutely, and there was a lot
to choose from, and there was also some trap games,
as we like to say in the industry. Was there
anything out there that that punched you in the gut today? Well,
(02:40):
the biggest trap game was the Philadelphia Eagles game against
the Miami Dolphins. They came into Miami as ten and
a half point favorites and lost outright. Uh I bet
on the Miami Dolphins to cover. I did not bet
the money line, which is feeling like a mistake right now. Well,
you don't make many mistakes. When we come back, we're
gonna talk to Davis and get his takes from the
one PM games, and we're gonna try to analyze everything.
(03:03):
Who's trending up, who's trending down, Who do we want
to own, who do we want to get rid of.
Everything you need is right here on the Pro Football rewinds.
To make sure you come on back, I'll be here
and Davis will be here. All we need is you.
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(04:05):
welcome back inside the studio. This is the Pro Football rewind.
If you want the edge you get on the grid.
Follow us on YouTube at sports grid Network, also on
Instagram sports grid TV. My name is Matt Striker, but
I turned to the expert, Davis Maddock. Davis, let's jumped
right into what we saw on the one o'clock games.
Tell me what you were able to glean from this
(04:26):
Tampa Bay Jacksonville game. Well, the number one thing that
you have to clean is that despite paying a quarterback
loads and loads of money, the Jacksonville Jaguars do not
have an answer at the position. After one of the
first halves of quarterback in that we've seen all season,
the Jaguars bench Nick Foles. They brought Gardner Minshew in
for the second half. Minshew did not play perfectly, but
(04:49):
he certainly played better than Bowles was able to throw
a touchdown to a resurgent d D. Westbrook, of course,
hit Leonard four nets for some very important checkdowns for us.
In Daily BA fantasy on full point PPR sides, and
UH owners of Jamis Winston have to be pretty disappointed.
UH no interceptions from Jamis, but also no passing touchdowns
(05:09):
for the first time this season. Peyton Barber to rushing touchdowns,
and head coach Bruce Arians said that Ronald Jones was
benched in this game for missing a Blitz pick up
early on. And if you were starting Ronald Jones in
one of your important seasonal fantasy football games, you had
to have been pretty disturbed. Because Barbara was able to
score two touchdowns. Daria oganba Wally was targeted twice in
(05:31):
the passing game. Those likely would have gone to Ronald
Jones had he not missed a Blitz pick up in
the first quarter. Pretty frustrating situation for Ronald Jones owners.
It's absolutely amazing as we get now into the dog
days here into week thirteen, moving into fourteen and so on,
that it's those little things that you can't controls, a
little things that the projection modules don't really give us.
(05:52):
The optimizers don't account for things like that. But as
far as this Tampa Bay game goes, they put up
twenty eight points, but they were almost hollow points because
the names that you mentioned, I'm not sure many people
had rostered. Oh, definitely, Yeah, this was this was a
frustrating situation for the Buccaneers. Brashad Perryman lead them in receptions. Now,
Mike Evans was targeted eleven times but was only able
(06:13):
to scare nine point three PPR points. Uh, that's that's
definitely brutal. I'm sure there were many teams that either
had him in a playoff matchup or a matchup that
would have been leading to the playoffs. Chris Godwin got
banged up in the first quarter, was not forced to
miss a ton of time, but he was really only
playing on third downs and then was playing sparingly in
the second half as well. So that's a that was
(06:34):
a pretty frustrating situation for those of us invested in
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing game. And then on the
Jacksonville side of the ball. Uh, some guys that we've
grown to count on, like DJ Shark had only two
receptions for forty seven yards. Uh. And and you know
that was a big function of the fact that Nick
fullis played so poorly in this game. And then when
Gardner Minshew got in, he was really just trying to
(06:55):
make a lot of quick throws to try and move
the team down the field. And the biggest beneficiary of
that was d D. Westbrook, who you'll finally scored a touchdown.
Felt like he for had, like forgot that he had
the ability to do that. Yeah, there's a lot of
forgotten names that seemed to start to come back into
the conversation. And I want to shift to this next game.
Here in New York, it was freezing rain, sleep and
(07:16):
that's conducive to what a lot of people did playing
Green Bay's defense in some DFS games. Talk to me
about this Green Bay Giant game. What did you see
from it? And were you on it? Uh? The only
player that I really had a ton of exposure too
in this game in DFS was Davante Adams. Uh. Sterling
Shepard was a pretty popular play in DFS as well.
(07:38):
He had seven targets in this game, was only able
to secure three of them for thirty yards, did score
pretty nifty touchdown in the first quarter, and rookie Caden
Smith had eight targets, six receptions and seventy yards for
the Giants. The Giants offense, because they planned all offseason
on having Evan Ingram. So much of their playbook revolves
around their tight end. We've seen Red Allison have a
(07:58):
big game, and now two games in a row, we've
seen Caden Smith be a top twelve tight end in Fantasy.
Today was crazy for tight end scoring. But I I
think that there might be something there in this Caden
Smith kid from Stanford for the New York Giants. The
big story for me though, in terms of the New
York Giants is I don't know if they have an
answer anywhere. On offense, Sae Kwon Barkley has been one
(08:19):
of the least efficient running backs in the NFL this season.
No running back has more carries for one yard or
fewer than Sae Kwon Barkley since his return from his
high ankle sprain. And Daniel Jones. I mean, it feels
like once the Giants get behind by ten points, it's
impossible for them to win because Jones, uh, he just
is not accurate enough. He's making some of these horrible
(08:40):
decisions and in particular his second interception. If you guys
have not seen it and you you want to go
find some highlights, go find Daniel Jones second interception. Against
the Packers. You might not see a worse interception thrown
this season in the NFL. So I want to move
back a little bit to something that you said. You
mentioned Barkley and are ineffective he's been. So take it
all the way back to the person that had picked
(09:01):
number one in their fantasy draft and they were wrestling
over Kamara, McCaffrey or Barkley. Now, given the information we have,
whould you have seen this drop off for Barkley? Is
there anything that dictates what's going on with this seemingly
number one draft pick. Well, Barkley was ranked number four
of those guys by me, behind Ezekiel Elliott, behind Alvin Kamara,
(09:24):
and behind Christian McCaffrey. Because of the Giants offense, it
just did not project to score that many points. They
had a very low Vegas win total. They were either
going to be starting Eli Manning or a rookie quarterback
who had a bad college resume and Daniel Jones. They
don't have a very intelligent coaching staff, certainly not you know,
a forward thinking, creative play staff like the Arizona Cardinals
(09:46):
or you know last year's Los Angeles trans There just
was not a ton of optimism to have about the Giants,
and the only thing that you had in taking Barkley
that high was you're gonna say, okay, well he's not
gonna split carries at all, and he's gonna be targeted
in the passing game. So Christian McCaffrey had none of
those wards. You know, he plays for a good offensive
team and he's even more involved than Barkley. Same for
(10:06):
Alvin Kamara and the same for Ezekiel Elliott. What's happened
to Barkeley is he he is not being used in
the passing game at all anymore. He did have seven
targets in this game, but that is his high in
a game with Daniel Jones, and you know, that was
the same amount of targets as Sterling Shepherd, less targets
than Darius Slayton and the aforementioned Kaden Smith. So the
biggest change in Barkley's value has been his usage in
(10:27):
the passing game. Because the dirty little secret is that
even at Penn State, Barkley was kind of an inefficient
runner because he's always trying to hit the home run.
He's not comfortable, you know, taking four yard games. When
they're there. He will change, you know, change direction, run
behind the line of scrimmage and really try and find
the big game. And that's a that's a good trade
to have. Sometimes it's not necessarily the best trade to
(10:48):
have when you're running behind this Giant's offensive line and
m Daniel Jones is your quarterback, and uh, it just
has really resulted in the Giants offense basically, you know,
third and long is just kind of the natural state
of the Giants offense with these layers. Yeah, it's a
great way to look at it. And I like Davis's
dirty little secrets. Talk to me about this dirty little
secret here the New York Jets and Cincinnati. I have
(11:09):
a dirty little secret. I like watching the Jets lose.
I mean, it is fun. It is fun to watch
the Jets lows. I I guess my dirty little secrets
that I bet on the New York Jets today. And uh,
you know, part of that was because Donald had been
playing so well. Part of that was because the Cincinnati
Bengals had been playing so poorly. And uh, the Jets
(11:29):
defense is okay, the Bengals defense is not okay. But
what happened in this game was just just a bad game.
Plan from the Jets. They they just seemed disorganized. Nothing
was working for them on offense. Levian Bell basically non involved,
just just a total loss. Season four. Levian Belt Robbie
Anderson was able to have a good game, ten targets,
a hundred and one yards. But the the story of
(11:51):
this game for me just has to be Andy Dalton
played pretty well left to touchdown out on the field.
There was c j Uzma had one in his hands,
dropped it that turned into a field goal. So this actually,
this could have been even more ugly for the New
York Jets. And it's one of those scenarios where they
have to be wondering, is Donald our guy? You know
if if, for example, let's say let's say two from Alabama,
(12:13):
let's say he declares and this hip injury kind of
has other teams worry about him. They're they're not ready
to take him number one overall. Joe Burrow from l
s U probably goes number one overall. And and let's
say the Jets are picking at eight and and two
of false to them, do they take him? Do they
take one of these elite wide receivers coming out this
year to try and help you know, make things easier
(12:34):
for Donald. Do they take a left tackle? Do they
take another offensive lineman? And I think that's a difficult
question for the organization to answer because we've only really
seen We're gonna see like ten games from Donald this year,
and two of them are against the New England Patriots,
so we're not really trying to grade young quarterbacks against
the Patriots, so they're working with an incomplete information set.
I would say though, this loss to the Bengals, this
(12:57):
is a big check in the negative column for Sam Donald. Absolutely,
And there's two things to actually unpack there, and I'll
take maybe fifteen seconds for each. First and foremost is
with Dalton back with Cincinnati, it does put some of
those Cincinnati receivers now back on the table for fantasy purposes.
And then as far as how the Jets would draft,
I think as far as fantasy goes, that impacts where
you're gonna go next season. I know a lot of
(13:18):
us are heading towards our playoffs this season, but a
good player always has forward thinking, so you have to
start to think about all these things. When we come back,
I'm gonna pick Davis's brain. We're gonna talk about the
Tennessee Titans, a team that I am quickly falling in
love with. We're also going to talk about these here.
Washington Redskins. Christian McCaffrey performing probably at one of his
worst paces, at least for this week, but that still
(13:40):
doesn't deny the fact that he is a top running
back in fantasy football and football altogether. When we come back,
more from Davis Maddock, more from me, match striker. This
is the pro football rewind. Make sure you're back here.
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(15:24):
My name is Matt Striker, and it's always a good
feeling to talk with Davis Maddick. Davis, before we went
to the break, you were breaking down some of the
early games. Let's continue on this path. Talk to me
about these Tennessee Titans, because I feel I'm going to
ride them for the rest of the season, right them
to the wheels. Fall off. Your thoughts on what happened today, Well,
(15:44):
what happened today was that the Indianapolis Colts are They're
they're kind of a public team. Uh, it seems that
people like them that they've been favored in a lot
of these games. Where are you know our numbers at
sports Grade have said that the other team is better.
Part of that is definitely gonna be Frank Reich. Part
of that is that people remember them being in the
playoffs the last few years with Andrew Luck. Part of
(16:06):
it is that people really like Jacoby Brissette, who, by
the way, you know, I think Jacoby Brissette is like
a starter level quarterback in the NFL. He's not. He
probably in and of himself does not guarantee you eight
wins or so, but on a talented team, I definitely
think he can get you there. The Titans, though, I mean,
Ryan Tannehill, this run that he is on, it's definitely
(16:26):
gonna stop. So Matt I would tell you, I would
tell you to be a little bit careful because Ryan
Tannehill has like Tom Brady in twenty, like two thousand
and eight level efficiency right now. He threw only twenty
two passes today, but was able to throw two passing touchdowns.
Derrick Henry had twenty six carries for a hundred forty
nine yards and a touchdown. And the Titans did definitely
(16:46):
get some turnover luck in this game, and the sense
that they just they just there were a few scenarios where, uh,
there was a fumble and it just happened to go
away from them. I will say, though the tight is
definitely to me, I think are a more complete roster
than the Colts, and Ryan Tannehill is like, these efficiency
numbers are not a mirrage. This is not like the
(17:08):
Nick Fole season where you should have thrown twenty interceptions
and half of those turned into touchdowns on very flukey plays.
But I'm just weary about any team in today's NFL
that bases themselves around running the ball and defense, because
when you look at most of the truly great teams,
they are very elite passing offenses. The Baltimore Ravens are
(17:28):
a little bit different, but their quarterback is the most
efficient rusher in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill, you had had
you know, had been rushing up until this game. Only
four carries for five yards and this one, I would say,
mostly though, this was about the Colts just playing poorly
as opposed to the Titans you know, playing overwhelmingly great. Yeah,
I mean I liked the match of everything. And then
(17:50):
you know minus and Marlon Mack and then understanding you
mentioned there a public team, but how many people in
the public were on a Jack Doyle. You've also joked
on this show that how many people out there can
in the receiving corps in Indianapolis they lost another player today.
All of these things added up, at least for me,
for a really really nice day for Tennessee. And if
the matchups continue to favor them, I'm gonna ride them.
(18:11):
But I do appreciate your caution. Talk to me about
the Washington Redskins and Carolina. I mean, who saw this coming?
Be honest, dude. We gotta get rid of Kyle Allen.
We we just we gotta get Kyle Allen out of
here because this Panthers team, like, for example, of Jacoby
Brissette was the quarterback of this Panthers team, they'd probably
be a ten win team and they would be the
(18:32):
sixth seed in the NFC. Instead, they're gonna be you
know not, They're they're basically eliminated from playoff contention at
this point. I mean, Kyle Allen passing attempts two yards,
two touchdowns, some of that coming in garbage time. Horrible interception,
had another interception that was ruled incomplete. I think it
was probably closer to an interception. And also so if
(18:55):
if you guys were watching this game, the Panthers actually
had a chance to score a touchdown final possession of
the game. You know, thirty seconds left, they get down
to the one yard line. Uh, CMC is not able
to score from the one yard line. And then Kyle
Allen on second and goal, third and goal, and fourth
and goal, some of the worst NFL quarterbacking you are
going to see. Just had CMC open for a touchdown,
(19:15):
missed him, had d g More open for a touchdown,
missed him. Was panicking on the fourth and goal play,
scrambles back thirty yards, puts himself in an awkward position,
the ball is fumbled. I mean, just just a complete
lack of situational awareness for the Carolina Panthers and a
well deserved win for Dwayne Haskins, who, by the way,
did not play particularly well this This game kind of
like the Colts Titans game. This game for me, was
(19:38):
more about Carolina playing really poorly than it was about
Washington playing well. Yeah, Washington's backfield though, did lead at
least it was Darius Guys that led all running backs
in fantasy for the day. And that's not something I
think that we have said all season or something that
we will say for the rest of the season. But
there are some interesting things. And I like the game
you're playing because Carolina has so many weapons. Remove Allen
(20:00):
from there and talk to me. If if Mason Rudolph
was under center, what would this team look like? I
just I like to see what quarterbacks would look like
with different receivers. So give me an interesting item there. Well,
Mason Rudolph is I I'm out on Mason Rudolph, right.
And what's funny is because I am so biased to
the Big Twelve. I'm an Oklahoma Sooners college football fan.
(20:22):
I watched pretty much all the Big twelve college football games.
So every time a guy like Mason Rudolph gets his chance,
which it's actually funny because Landry Jones from Oklahoma used
to be the backup quarterback for the Steelers, I always
think the guys are gonna be good. Like I was
convinced Mason Rudolph was gonna come in and was gonna
be okay for the Steelers, and he wasn't. He was horrible.
Uh and and you know that that's what we're seeing
(20:43):
with Kyle Allen as well. The guys that I would
like to see get a chance specifically, like with this
Carolina team, a guy named Tyree Jackson. He was the
Buffalo University quarterback in college and is on the Buffalo
Bills practice squad right now. That would be a guy
I would be really interested to see play with the
Carolina Panthers because he's kind of like the same size
(21:03):
and has the same, like similar speed to Cam Newton.
And they would not have had to change their offense
that much. Obviously, they would have had to dial back
a bunch of the precision passing stuff that Cam Newton
was able to do at a high level that someone like,
you know, an undrafted free agent from Buffalo University wasn't
gonna be able to do. But something that I think
NFL coaches are really afraid of is going with unconventional offenses.
(21:25):
We see it all the time where these backup quarterbacks
come in and it's it's run run pass, right, So
they run on first down, run on second down. Then
you go to shotgun on third down and you try
and pass. And that's what the Steelers did with Mason Rudolph.
That's what the Dolphins were doing with Josh Rosen and
that just doesn't work. That that's what the Cardinals did,
but Josh Rosen last year, it doesn't work. And I
I gotta give credit to the coach at staff and
(21:47):
Carolina for doing the best they could with Kyle Allen,
but I also at the same time got to give
them a lack of credit for their backup quarterback being
Kyle Allen in the first place, Like that's not the
kind of guy that you should wants. That should be
your third string guy, not your backup. It's quite frustrating
when this Carolina team has so many weapons that could
pay off for fantasy owners, but like you said, it
(22:08):
all depends on the guy throwing the football. And the
reason I brought up Mason Rudolph was to get to
this next game Pittsburgh in Cleveland and James Washington was
Rudolph's roommate in college, I believe, and he was on
the receiving end of a touchdown here. Did you see
this game going this way? Did you have Cleveland other side.
So this game was really close. I believe that the
I believe that the closing line here was just minus one.
(22:31):
I did think that the Browns were going to win.
This was a no bet for me, So in my
in my weekly selections, I did not make a pick here,
and it was it was mostly because I just did
not know what we were going to see from Devilin Hodges.
And I gotta say he was pretty interesting to me.
He was able to make a couple really nice deep
throws to James Washington that Mason Rudolph he just would
(22:51):
not have made those throws. Rudolph was too scared of
throwing interceptions, too scared of getting in third and long,
so he just was not letting those those passes go.
But one of the long shots to James Washington was
on second and twelve, and like, just so, think about
throwing an incomplete pass on second and twelve. Then you're
in third and long. You're basically looking at a punt,
and and it takes a certain type of quarterback to
(23:12):
be willing to take those chances and and to have
the situational awareness to know what the best decision is.
And I thought I thought Hodges played well, and I
think that, you know, it's definitely possible that this Dealer's
team with their semi easy schedule the rest of the way.
You know, obviously they're not gonna win the division that
Ravens are gonna are gonna wrap that up, but they
could again there with the a f C having such
a lack of talent. Like we were talking about the
(23:34):
Raiders as a potential playoff team two weeks ago, they've
been blown out in back to back weeks and I
think they've scored a combined twelve points in the last
two weeks, so you know, that's not particularly great. And
the Steelers, they also had a pretty solid run game
going today as well. Benny Snell, Jalen Samuel's. They both
did their job. But like you said, the big story
of this game has to be James Washington. So he
(23:55):
he was college roommates with Mason Rudolph, but he Duck
Hodges over the last week. You know what they did together.
They went duck hunting. So I think that's an even
stronger narrative than being college roommates. Here you go duck hunt.
I used to have duck Hunt for Nintendo and I
would sit with the gun right against the television. But
I'm dating myself all right speaking about being right against
the television. All football fans were for the San Francisco
(24:18):
and Baltimore game. I mean, Lamar Jackson is it's the cliche,
but he is a video game. He is a human
video game. Your thoughts, So he is a human video game. However,
I will say it would have been pretty easy for
San Francisco to win this game. There was a period
in the fourth quarter where there were four straight possessions
(24:38):
where each of the teams went four and out. So
what that means, obviously is they got to a position
where it was time to go for it on fourth down,
and neither team was able to get it. Jimmy Garoppolo
failed twice, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens failed twice, and
then finally the Ravens were able to pin together that
game winning drive. Now, they only kicked a field goal,
they did not score a touchdown, so that meant that
(24:59):
they did not over the five and a half or
the six points spread. I of course, as we know
every week, I'm always on the Baltimore raven side of
the spread, so that was a little frustrating. Uh, I
will say, you know again, Lamar great game in this one. Uh.
He he had a couple of passes that he sailed.
There was one where Mark Andrews was in the end
zone and he drew the ball behind him. If he
(25:19):
threw it in front of him, that would have been
a touchdown. There was an incredible, incredible defensive play by
a forty Niners defender where he was able to shed
his block as Lamar Jackson was running past him and
reach out and just took the ball from Lamar like
right out of his hands. And and if he had
not been able to do that, Lamar probably would have
ran all the way to the end zone. And that
(25:40):
kind of swung the momentum of a game where if
the Ravens go into halftime up and then they're able
to just run downhill for the rest of the game,
we're probably looking at a scenario where you know, mark
ingram ends up getting in the end zone, getting over
seventy rushing yards. Lamar Jackson, you know, he he could
get Hunter and twenty rushing yards and and the biggest
weapon the Ravens had in this game was Lamar's legs.
(26:02):
He he was not as efficient as a passer today absolutely,
though it does make Lamar Jackson the number five fantasy
quarterback on the slate today. When we come back, we'll
talk about what we call a trap game and we'll
identify that and then we'll move into our sports investments.
Davis has a keen eye for all kinds of strategies
and trends. Make sure you bring a pen in the
(26:23):
paper because we're going to class when the Pro Football
Rewind comes back after this, I want to light the
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Then joined Daily Rodo dot com and learn from the
best daily fantasy sports players. Get updated fantasy hockey projections
(26:44):
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present discount on the back into the studio. This is
(27:13):
the broad Football Rewind, the only place where we go
forward in reverse, breaking down the day's events in the
league and applying them to all of your fantasy football needs,
whether it be season long DFS or sports investments. My
name is Matt Stryker, and joining me as always is
Davis Maddock. Now, Davis, I left this game for last
because we used a term at the top of the
show called the trap game, and I'm hopeful that you'll
(27:36):
be able to explain it to viewers that may not
be familiar. Philadelphia at Miami. Why is this a trap game?
So the elements of a trap game are it's it's
generally gonna be a road favorite, so you know, a
better team is playing a worst team on the road.
It's a situation where you know, pretty much everyone expects
(27:56):
this game to go to the favorite team. They're they're
not gonna be a ton of dissenting opinions. And uh,
that's a very true statement for the Philadelphia Eagles. They
they had to win this game. They had to win
this game in order to have a chance to win
the division because the only way that they're going to
make the playoffs is winning the division. There's not gonna
be a wild card coming out of the NFC East.
And uh, the other element of it is that the
(28:18):
favorite team has to be worse than people think they are.
And that's very true of the Philadelphia Eagles, and it's
true of betting models too. You know, I don't want
to I don't want this to seem like, uh, you know,
the public is stupid. In the Las Vegas Sharps, they
know everything, because there were definitely people who bet on
the Eagles minus ten and a half points. And the
fact of the matter is the Eagles are not particularly
(28:39):
good at anything there. Carson Wentz is thirty in the
NFL in yards per passe attempt. They're not particularly good
at running the ball. Their defense is very legal average
in terms of expected points and in terms of yards
allowed per play. So what what we had was a
very bad team in the Miami Dolphins and a very
average team in the Philadelphia Eagles. And you never lay
(29:00):
ten and a half points. I mean really, you never
really do it in the NFL in general, but you
especially do not do it with a mediocre team like
the Philadelphia Eagles. So, now that you've outlined this for
what people can look at, would you be one of
the people that, if you looked at this, you say, yo,
I'm going Miami in the over here? Is that? Have
you just kind of like, crap the code? Why did
(29:22):
not bet the over? I did bet, As I mentioned earlier,
I did bet Miami ten and a half points. I
thought that, Uh, really, if you look at what Ryan
Fitzpatrick and Carson Wentz have done this year in terms
of per play efficiency, Fitzpatrick is a little bit worse
because he's super turnover prone, but in terms of completed passes,
he's actually been better than Carson Wentz. And he has
(29:44):
very similar number one wide receiver. I know this is
crazy for people, but Devonte Parker, that's the real deal.
And and now Sean Jeffrey had a huge game here,
and I think he's very talented as well, But they're
they're very similar. Mike Siki is a guy who I
have a ton of belief in the very athletic tight
end Miami has. And uh, you might notice the number
one thing that changed for the Miami Dolphins today. They
(30:06):
stopped giving the balls. A klein Blage left this game,
left this game injured, had only three rushes, of course,
recorded zero yards with them. Patrick Laird got involved in
the game, had five for forty three as a receiver.
A massive game for Davonte Parker, and uh, yeah, I
think Miami was clearly the bet here. They have been
a competitive team over the last month of the season,
(30:29):
and uh, you know the the Eagles that they're not
a particularly competitive NFL team. Present nail on the head.
It's a simple statement. And to your point, Parker the
number one wide receiver today with twenty seven point nine points.
Next behind him as Kenny Golladay, who played it seems
like eons ago, and then all Sean Jeffrey and as
far as Gaziki goes the number two tight end here
and now you throw in Layard and moving forward, maybe
(30:51):
these Miami Dolphins might have some fantasy viability. But I
wanted to pick your brain a little bit more. I
look at this Washington at CAROLINEA depending on the numbers
that had I had a thirty eight and a half
over undernod Carolina laying nine and a half, and the
road dog comes in and beats him by eight. How
do you try to see that game on the schedule
and which way would you have bet it? So you
(31:13):
just you look at that and you go, man, the
team the team that had worst quarterback plays the team
that lost this game. I don't want to say the
team with better quarterback play one because you know the
fact of the matter, it's Dwayne Haskins was not that
involved in the game. But the lesson that should be
learned for for now is guys like Kyle Allen who
have super wide ranges of outcomes. You know, he's had
(31:36):
games this year with over thirty thirty Fantasy points. You know,
had games with four interceptions. Add games with four touchdowns.
You just you don't lay, you don't lay, you know,
almost ten points. With guys who have that wide range
of outcomes, you know, very similar to Jamis Winston. It's
great to bet on Jamis Winston as an underdog because
when you bet on him when he's you know, an
underdog by a touchdown or whatever, you know they can
(31:57):
win that game out right if Jamis Winston has his
fast Paul uh, you know, they were favored today. So
it's a little bit different of a story. And I
think Alan is in a bucket like that where when
they're you know, when they're nine point dogs, sure we
like that, but when they're like big home favorites, not
interested at all. Yeah, And again I think we learn
as we go on here when we look at the spreads.
If something jumps off the paper at US, usually that
(32:19):
deserves a deeper dive. And then you look at the
over unders, and we've talked about this. When you look
at the highest totals, that's going to tell you, from
a DFS standpoint, that there's going to be cherries to
pick from that tree. I wanted to ask you again
about one last game, another low total thirty nine and
a half Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Now I stayed away. This
is a no bet game for me. But for those
(32:40):
that that live and high on the edge here, what
would those numbers there dictate? Which way would you have
played that game? So this was this was definitely a
very good game to look at that low total and say,
you know what, I think that it is going to
go even lower. We have a team in the Steelers
who is starting an undrafted free agent quarterback. We have
a team in the Cleveland Browns, who has literally been
(33:03):
the worst goal line offense in the NFL this year.
The Miami Dolphins have been better inside the ten yard
line than the Cleveland Browns. And so you look at
two teams that they're just not gonna be able to score.
If the brown score it comes from a long way out.
And another thing that we've seen from the Browns is
that they are a pretty run heavy team in neutral situations.
And when you have a two run heavy teams in
(33:25):
neutral situations, you have a shorter game, more more plays
that are not blown dead due to incomplete passes, so
drives take longer. Specifically teams that run a lot when
they have successful drives. I mean if you run ten
plays on a drive and none of those plays stopped,
I mean all of a sudden six like six minutes
of game clock is gone, and you have two of
those teams playing each other, you're looking at a game
(33:47):
that just gets shorter and shorter. So that's definitely a
situation where you want to look at the under and
the under is what occurred, and it's perfect. Now that
you have an understanding of how game scripts should go,
you can make just more are informed investments. Davis for
more information, where can people find you on the internet.
(34:07):
They can find me on Twitter at Davis Mattock. My name,
it's it's spelled out there right below. And of course
if you want to get more of the content, you know,
we like you like what Matt and I talked about
here on the show. You can definitely go to Rhoto
Experts dot com. That's where all of my fantasy content
is published, or all my season long fantasy content. All
of my daily fantasy content of course comes from Daily
(34:28):
Rhodo dot com, one of our one of our members
of the sports Grid network and uh i I we
do the sports Grid fantasy football podcasts. If you just
search my name or sports Grid that'll pop up on iTunes.
And you know, all of that should get you pretty
ready to go for every football weekend. Absolutely And hear
the confidence in his voice and see it in his eyes.
So now, Davis, this is where I've got me, pin
(34:51):
of got me paper. Start to talk to me about
who to pick up and who to drop based off
of what we've seen moving forward, because a lot of
people are fighting, some are already in the playoffs, some
are just now just trying to get there one more week.
Maybe talk to us so you can drop any Green
Bay packer not named Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams, Davante Adams,
(35:14):
or Aaron Rodgers. I know Alan Lazard had a big
game today. Pretty much all came on one. I think
it was a fifty five yard touchdown from uh from
Aaron Rodgers. But they're they're passing game. Jonima Allison three targets,
Jimmy Graham one target, Marcedes Lewis two targets, one target
for Robert Tonyan, two targets for Marquez bad scaling, So
they just really split it up there. I think someone
(35:37):
you can add is Caden Smith of the New York Giants,
the tight end, eight targets. I don't know when Evan
Ingram's coming back. I don't even know if Evan Ingram
still plays football fields like it's been so long since
we've seen him on the field. And the Giants are
gonna keep being underdogs in these games. They're gonna keep throwing,
and Caden Smith has been playing one of the Giants
offensive snaps. If someone has dropped for whatever reason, it's
(35:59):
very unlikely. But if Davante Parker is out there in
your league, he of course would be a top AD.
But from that same game, Patrick Laird ten rushes in
this game, five targets in the passing game. He is
the odds on favorite to be the lead running back
for the Miami Dolphins with Klein Balage out multiple weeks
with an injury. Had to be carted off in this game.
(36:20):
I would be surprised if we see him again this season.
He's gonna be my top waiver wire ad of the week,
of course, from the Cincinnati Bengals. Auden Tate actually led
the team in yards this week seven targets, sixty six yards.
It was Tyler Boyd to scored the touchdown Auden Tate.
Now that Andy Dalton is back under the helm, I
definitely think he is someone to target. Darius Geiss is
(36:42):
not one owned, and I know he did not get
the full backfield to himself today. Adrian Peterson actually had
more rushing rushing attempts and also scored a rushing touchdown
as well, But Darius Guys clearly the more explosive player.
Had a forty three yard touchdown run that was called
a forty two yard run, then punched in the one
yard touchdown guys, of course, would be another phenomenal ad.
(37:06):
Let me ask you, now, there are going to be
people out there that are ultimately going to jump onto
Peyton Barber here. How in fab bucks, how how would
you allocate to guys maybe layered barber guys. Give me
some numbers there Layard and guys, whatever you have left
at this point in the season, I'm comfortable blowing all
of it because you know, Layard is a really good
(37:27):
pass catcher. That's clearly a role that you need to
have in the Miami Dolphins offense because they are underdogs
in so many of these games. Uh, the same is
true for guys. If he's gonna be playing passing downs
and he just looks really explosive, like he just looks
like a guy who's gonna be able to create value
on his own even if they're surrounding offense, is not
that good? Definitely less for Peyton Barber. You know, as
(37:47):
we discussed earlier in the show, the only reason he
got to play was because Ronald Jones messed up. And
some weeks Ronald Jones isn't gonna mess up and those
numbers are gonna go to him instead of Peyton Barber.
But definitely, whatever you have left, feel free spe ending
that on Layered and or Darius. Guys. So, now, how
are you sitting here at week three moving into week fourteen?
(38:08):
What are you starting to think about what's going through
the mind of Davis Maddock. Now as we get into
the final stretch of the season. So assuming that either
your league playoffs have already started or they start next week,
I'm starting to look at championship week. I'm starting to
look at weeks fifteen and week sixteen. What are the
defenses that I need? Does my tight end have a
(38:28):
bad matchup in week fifteen or week sixteen? Do I
need to drop my tight end, pick up Tyler Higbere
or Jack Doil or Noah Fense or whoever? Do I
need to drop the defense that I have and get
a new defense. Do I need to see if I
can spend a couple of extra fab bucks on a
kicker to get things prepared, like and I'm starting to
drop guys who are just okay, Like guys who theoretically
(38:48):
you could start, but you're never that excited about it,
And I'm just picking up handcuff running backs instaid. So
like a great example of that would be Emmanuel Sanders.
He's a good player, and if you started him, you
you never hate it. You'd like, okay Sanders. He can
get some points if necessary, but he's very unlikely to
deliver you a league winning week. With how good Deevo
Samuel and George Kittle have been, so I'm fine cutting
(39:09):
him and picking up rychil Armstead or or Wayne Gallman
or Matt Brita or Alexander Madison one of these really
high end handcuffs, because those guys, if something were to
happen in the running back ahead of them, they are
very likely to be you know, top ten running backs
in the given week that they start, and that's more
valuable they have on your roster. And you mentioned looking
forward looking at defenses and tight ends for weeks fifteen
(39:33):
and sixteen. Uh, next week, the Ravens played the Jets,
the Bears play the Packers, the Bills play the Steelers.
The obvious defensive call there would be to go to Baltimore,
right or is there something else that someone could do
looking at just those three games for now? Yeah, the Ravens,
they're definitely a very strong defensive candidate. But do not
look past these Steelers either. This Steelers defensive unit, pretty
(39:55):
much everyone they've played against, they have, they've dominated, they have.
I think the stat I saw today during red zone
was that they have nineteen straight games with at least
one turnover generated. That's pretty impressive that that's pretty nice
and uh, They're definitely a team that if they were
out there in your league and you you could pick
them up and probably start them for the rest of
the fantasy playoffs. Yeah. And then you move down and
(40:17):
you see that the Patriots have the Bengals, the Seahawks
have the Panthers, the Texans have the Titans, and the
Dolphins have the Giants. I'm curious to see the pricing
on the Patriots D versus the Baltimore D. Which one
would you want for next week? I would want I
would want the Patriots. The Patriots are probably the number
one defense that if if I had them, I would
(40:38):
I would really not even be thinking about picking up
other defenses to start, all right, But we are thinking
about how to win, and when we come back, we'll
analyze the four o'clock games, and then Davis is truly
going to unpack everything that we're gonna need in order
to win. This is a pro pro football rewind or
coming back after this
Hey, thanks for downloading the podcast. If you want to
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(00:21):
listening to the Sports Grid Network. We're the lovel Touch
Sound Pro Football rout Hey. Welcome everybody inside the studio.
(00:52):
It's that time again, time for the Pro Footfall Rewind,
the only show that goes forward in reverse. Adell I
seen the day's events in the NFL applying them to
your fantasy football needs. Hello everybody, my name is Match Striker.
Happy to be here and joining me as always a
man who has become, for my money, one of the
best fantasy fantasy analysts in the game today. Davis Mattock. Davis,
(01:16):
how you doing, my man? I'm doing great, great day
and DFS pretty good day for sweating out some season
long uh fantasy football playoff matchups and of course the
ever important sports investments also went pretty pretty pretty well.
How'd your day go? Actually? I was telling one of
the producers that I'm having my best day for the
(01:37):
entire season today, and I think a lot of it
has to do with the conversations that you and I
have talking about who to pick up, who to drop,
who to start to keep our eyes on. And I
really think that the work behind the desk and the
work that you're doing is really starting to pay off. Well,
I hope. So it's It's been a very successful year
from myself, definitely for the Roto Expert subscribers. So now
(01:58):
I'm just glad to be able to hear too about
So what are some things that you hit with today?
Start us off? What were some of your big plays
that that panned out well. Robert Woods, one of my
highest own guys in seasonal, one of my highest own
guys in DFS, tied the record this season for most
targets in a game with nineteen. Also a huge game
(02:19):
from al Sean Jeffrey a hundred thirty seven receiving yards
and a touchdown against Miami. Really needed that game from
him so too too. Really, big wide receiver performances spurred
on my big day, absolutely, and there was a lot
to choose from, and there was also some trap games,
as we like to say in the industry. Was there
anything out there that that punched you in the gut today? Well,
(02:40):
the biggest trap game was the Philadelphia Eagles game against
the Miami Dolphins. They came into Miami as ten and
a half point favorites and lost outright. Uh I bet
on the Miami Dolphins to cover. I did not bet
the money line, which is feeling like a mistake right now. Well,
you don't make many mistakes. When we come back, we're
gonna talk to Davis and get his takes from the
one PM games, and we're gonna try to analyze everything.
(03:03):
Who's trending up, who's trending down, Who do we want
to own, who do we want to get rid of.
Everything you need is right here on the Pro Football rewinds.
To make sure you come on back, I'll be here
and Davis will be here. All we need is you.
Daily Rhodo dot Com learned from the game's best DFS players.
(03:24):
We don't just give you premier advice. We play every day,
all major sports, all year round. We never stopped industry
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best DFS players joined Daily Rodo dot com. Mm hmmm,
(04:05):
welcome back inside the studio. This is the Pro Football rewind.
If you want the edge you get on the grid.
Follow us on YouTube at sports grid Network, also on
Instagram sports grid TV. My name is Matt Striker, but
I turned to the expert, Davis Maddock. Davis, let's jumped
right into what we saw on the one o'clock games.
Tell me what you were able to glean from this
(04:26):
Tampa Bay Jacksonville game. Well, the number one thing that
you have to clean is that despite paying a quarterback
loads and loads of money, the Jacksonville Jaguars do not
have an answer at the position. After one of the
first halves of quarterback in that we've seen all season,
the Jaguars bench Nick Foles. They brought Gardner Minshew in
for the second half. Minshew did not play perfectly, but
(04:49):
he certainly played better than Bowles was able to throw
a touchdown to a resurgent d D. Westbrook, of course,
hit Leonard four nets for some very important checkdowns for us.
In Daily BA fantasy on full point PPR sides, and
UH owners of Jamis Winston have to be pretty disappointed.
UH no interceptions from Jamis, but also no passing touchdowns
(05:09):
for the first time this season. Peyton Barber to rushing touchdowns,
and head coach Bruce Arians said that Ronald Jones was
benched in this game for missing a Blitz pick up
early on. And if you were starting Ronald Jones in
one of your important seasonal fantasy football games, you had
to have been pretty disturbed. Because Barbara was able to
score two touchdowns. Daria oganba Wally was targeted twice in
(05:31):
the passing game. Those likely would have gone to Ronald
Jones had he not missed a Blitz pick up in
the first quarter. Pretty frustrating situation for Ronald Jones owners.
It's absolutely amazing as we get now into the dog
days here into week thirteen, moving into fourteen and so on,
that it's those little things that you can't controls, a
little things that the projection modules don't really give us.
(05:52):
The optimizers don't account for things like that. But as
far as this Tampa Bay game goes, they put up
twenty eight points, but they were almost hollow points because
the names that you mentioned, I'm not sure many people
had rostered. Oh, definitely, Yeah, this was this was a
frustrating situation for the Buccaneers. Brashad Perryman lead them in receptions. Now,
Mike Evans was targeted eleven times but was only able
(06:13):
to scare nine point three PPR points. Uh, that's that's
definitely brutal. I'm sure there were many teams that either
had him in a playoff matchup or a matchup that
would have been leading to the playoffs. Chris Godwin got
banged up in the first quarter, was not forced to
miss a ton of time, but he was really only
playing on third downs and then was playing sparingly in
the second half as well. So that's a that was
(06:34):
a pretty frustrating situation for those of us invested in
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers passing game. And then on the
Jacksonville side of the ball. Uh, some guys that we've
grown to count on, like DJ Shark had only two
receptions for forty seven yards. Uh. And and you know
that was a big function of the fact that Nick
fullis played so poorly in this game. And then when
Gardner Minshew got in, he was really just trying to
(06:55):
make a lot of quick throws to try and move
the team down the field. And the biggest beneficiary of
that was d D. Westbrook, who you'll finally scored a touchdown.
Felt like he for had, like forgot that he had
the ability to do that. Yeah, there's a lot of
forgotten names that seemed to start to come back into
the conversation. And I want to shift to this next game.
Here in New York, it was freezing rain, sleep and
(07:16):
that's conducive to what a lot of people did playing
Green Bay's defense in some DFS games. Talk to me
about this Green Bay Giant game. What did you see
from it? And were you on it? Uh? The only
player that I really had a ton of exposure too
in this game in DFS was Davante Adams. Uh. Sterling
Shepard was a pretty popular play in DFS as well.
(07:38):
He had seven targets in this game, was only able
to secure three of them for thirty yards, did score
pretty nifty touchdown in the first quarter, and rookie Caden
Smith had eight targets, six receptions and seventy yards for
the Giants. The Giants offense, because they planned all offseason
on having Evan Ingram. So much of their playbook revolves
around their tight end. We've seen Red Allison have a
(07:58):
big game, and now two games in a row, we've
seen Caden Smith be a top twelve tight end in Fantasy.
Today was crazy for tight end scoring. But I I
think that there might be something there in this Caden
Smith kid from Stanford for the New York Giants. The
big story for me though, in terms of the New
York Giants is I don't know if they have an
answer anywhere. On offense, Sae Kwon Barkley has been one
(08:19):
of the least efficient running backs in the NFL this season.
No running back has more carries for one yard or
fewer than Sae Kwon Barkley since his return from his
high ankle sprain. And Daniel Jones. I mean, it feels
like once the Giants get behind by ten points, it's
impossible for them to win because Jones, uh, he just
is not accurate enough. He's making some of these horrible
(08:40):
decisions and in particular his second interception. If you guys
have not seen it and you you want to go
find some highlights, go find Daniel Jones second interception. Against
the Packers. You might not see a worse interception thrown
this season in the NFL. So I want to move
back a little bit to something that you said. You
mentioned Barkley and are ineffective he's been. So take it
all the way back to the person that had picked
(09:01):
number one in their fantasy draft and they were wrestling
over Kamara, McCaffrey or Barkley. Now, given the information we have,
whould you have seen this drop off for Barkley? Is
there anything that dictates what's going on with this seemingly
number one draft pick. Well, Barkley was ranked number four
of those guys by me, behind Ezekiel Elliott, behind Alvin Kamara,
(09:24):
and behind Christian McCaffrey. Because of the Giants offense, it
just did not project to score that many points. They
had a very low Vegas win total. They were either
going to be starting Eli Manning or a rookie quarterback
who had a bad college resume and Daniel Jones. They
don't have a very intelligent coaching staff, certainly not you know,
a forward thinking, creative play staff like the Arizona Cardinals
(09:46):
or you know last year's Los Angeles trans There just
was not a ton of optimism to have about the Giants,
and the only thing that you had in taking Barkley
that high was you're gonna say, okay, well he's not
gonna split carries at all, and he's gonna be targeted
in the passing game. So Christian McCaffrey had none of
those wards. You know, he plays for a good offensive
team and he's even more involved than Barkley. Same for
(10:06):
Alvin Kamara and the same for Ezekiel Elliott. What's happened
to Barkeley is he he is not being used in
the passing game at all anymore. He did have seven
targets in this game, but that is his high in
a game with Daniel Jones, and you know, that was
the same amount of targets as Sterling Shepherd, less targets
than Darius Slayton and the aforementioned Kaden Smith. So the
biggest change in Barkley's value has been his usage in
(10:27):
the passing game. Because the dirty little secret is that
even at Penn State, Barkley was kind of an inefficient
runner because he's always trying to hit the home run.
He's not comfortable, you know, taking four yard games. When
they're there. He will change, you know, change direction, run
behind the line of scrimmage and really try and find
the big game. And that's a that's a good trade
to have. Sometimes it's not necessarily the best trade to
(10:48):
have when you're running behind this Giant's offensive line and
m Daniel Jones is your quarterback, and uh, it just
has really resulted in the Giants offense basically, you know,
third and long is just kind of the natural state
of the Giants offense with these layers. Yeah, it's a
great way to look at it. And I like Davis's
dirty little secrets. Talk to me about this dirty little
secret here the New York Jets and Cincinnati. I have
(11:09):
a dirty little secret. I like watching the Jets lose.
I mean, it is fun. It is fun to watch
the Jets lows. I I guess my dirty little secrets
that I bet on the New York Jets today. And uh,
you know, part of that was because Donald had been
playing so well. Part of that was because the Cincinnati
Bengals had been playing so poorly. And uh, the Jets
(11:29):
defense is okay, the Bengals defense is not okay. But
what happened in this game was just just a bad game.
Plan from the Jets. They they just seemed disorganized. Nothing
was working for them on offense. Levian Bell basically non involved,
just just a total loss. Season four. Levian Belt Robbie
Anderson was able to have a good game, ten targets,
a hundred and one yards. But the the story of
(11:51):
this game for me just has to be Andy Dalton
played pretty well left to touchdown out on the field.
There was c j Uzma had one in his hands,
dropped it that turned into a field goal. So this actually,
this could have been even more ugly for the New
York Jets. And it's one of those scenarios where they
have to be wondering, is Donald our guy? You know
if if, for example, let's say let's say two from Alabama,
(12:13):
let's say he declares and this hip injury kind of
has other teams worry about him. They're they're not ready
to take him number one overall. Joe Burrow from l
s U probably goes number one overall. And and let's
say the Jets are picking at eight and and two
of false to them, do they take him? Do they
take one of these elite wide receivers coming out this
year to try and help you know, make things easier
(12:34):
for Donald. Do they take a left tackle? Do they
take another offensive lineman? And I think that's a difficult
question for the organization to answer because we've only really
seen We're gonna see like ten games from Donald this year,
and two of them are against the New England Patriots,
so we're not really trying to grade young quarterbacks against
the Patriots, so they're working with an incomplete information set.
I would say though, this loss to the Bengals, this
(12:57):
is a big check in the negative column for Sam Donald. Absolutely,
And there's two things to actually unpack there, and I'll
take maybe fifteen seconds for each. First and foremost is
with Dalton back with Cincinnati, it does put some of
those Cincinnati receivers now back on the table for fantasy purposes.
And then as far as how the Jets would draft,
I think as far as fantasy goes, that impacts where
you're gonna go next season. I know a lot of
(13:18):
us are heading towards our playoffs this season, but a
good player always has forward thinking, so you have to
start to think about all these things. When we come back,
I'm gonna pick Davis's brain. We're gonna talk about the
Tennessee Titans, a team that I am quickly falling in
love with. We're also going to talk about these here.
Washington Redskins. Christian McCaffrey performing probably at one of his
worst paces, at least for this week, but that still
(13:40):
doesn't deny the fact that he is a top running
back in fantasy football and football altogether. When we come back,
more from Davis Maddock, more from me, match striker. This
is the pro football rewind. Make sure you're back here.
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(15:03):
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(15:24):
My name is Matt Striker, and it's always a good
feeling to talk with Davis Maddick. Davis, before we went
to the break, you were breaking down some of the
early games. Let's continue on this path. Talk to me
about these Tennessee Titans, because I feel I'm going to
ride them for the rest of the season, right them
to the wheels. Fall off. Your thoughts on what happened today, Well,
(15:44):
what happened today was that the Indianapolis Colts are They're
they're kind of a public team. Uh, it seems that
people like them that they've been favored in a lot
of these games. Where are you know our numbers at
sports Grade have said that the other team is better.
Part of that is definitely gonna be Frank Reich. Part
of that is that people remember them being in the
playoffs the last few years with Andrew Luck. Part of
(16:06):
it is that people really like Jacoby Brissette, who, by
the way, you know, I think Jacoby Brissette is like
a starter level quarterback in the NFL. He's not. He
probably in and of himself does not guarantee you eight
wins or so, but on a talented team, I definitely
think he can get you there. The Titans, though, I mean,
Ryan Tannehill, this run that he is on, it's definitely
(16:26):
gonna stop. So Matt I would tell you, I would
tell you to be a little bit careful because Ryan
Tannehill has like Tom Brady in twenty, like two thousand
and eight level efficiency right now. He threw only twenty
two passes today, but was able to throw two passing touchdowns.
Derrick Henry had twenty six carries for a hundred forty
nine yards and a touchdown. And the Titans did definitely
(16:46):
get some turnover luck in this game, and the sense
that they just they just there were a few scenarios where, uh,
there was a fumble and it just happened to go
away from them. I will say, though the tight is
definitely to me, I think are a more complete roster
than the Colts, and Ryan Tannehill is like, these efficiency
numbers are not a mirrage. This is not like the
(17:08):
Nick Fole season where you should have thrown twenty interceptions
and half of those turned into touchdowns on very flukey plays.
But I'm just weary about any team in today's NFL
that bases themselves around running the ball and defense, because
when you look at most of the truly great teams,
they are very elite passing offenses. The Baltimore Ravens are
(17:28):
a little bit different, but their quarterback is the most
efficient rusher in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill, you had had
you know, had been rushing up until this game. Only
four carries for five yards and this one, I would say,
mostly though, this was about the Colts just playing poorly
as opposed to the Titans you know, playing overwhelmingly great. Yeah,
I mean I liked the match of everything. And then
(17:50):
you know minus and Marlon Mack and then understanding you
mentioned there a public team, but how many people in
the public were on a Jack Doyle. You've also joked
on this show that how many people out there can
in the receiving corps in Indianapolis they lost another player today.
All of these things added up, at least for me,
for a really really nice day for Tennessee. And if
the matchups continue to favor them, I'm gonna ride them.
(18:11):
But I do appreciate your caution. Talk to me about
the Washington Redskins and Carolina. I mean, who saw this coming?
Be honest, dude. We gotta get rid of Kyle Allen.
We we just we gotta get Kyle Allen out of
here because this Panthers team, like, for example, of Jacoby
Brissette was the quarterback of this Panthers team, they'd probably
be a ten win team and they would be the
(18:32):
sixth seed in the NFC. Instead, they're gonna be you
know not, They're they're basically eliminated from playoff contention at
this point. I mean, Kyle Allen passing attempts two yards,
two touchdowns, some of that coming in garbage time. Horrible interception,
had another interception that was ruled incomplete. I think it
was probably closer to an interception. And also so if
(18:55):
if you guys were watching this game, the Panthers actually
had a chance to score a touchdown final possession of
the game. You know, thirty seconds left, they get down
to the one yard line. Uh, CMC is not able
to score from the one yard line. And then Kyle
Allen on second and goal, third and goal, and fourth
and goal, some of the worst NFL quarterbacking you are
going to see. Just had CMC open for a touchdown,
(19:15):
missed him, had d g More open for a touchdown,
missed him. Was panicking on the fourth and goal play,
scrambles back thirty yards, puts himself in an awkward position,
the ball is fumbled. I mean, just just a complete
lack of situational awareness for the Carolina Panthers and a
well deserved win for Dwayne Haskins, who, by the way,
did not play particularly well this This game kind of
like the Colts Titans game. This game for me, was
(19:38):
more about Carolina playing really poorly than it was about
Washington playing well. Yeah, Washington's backfield though, did lead at
least it was Darius Guys that led all running backs
in fantasy for the day. And that's not something I
think that we have said all season or something that
we will say for the rest of the season. But
there are some interesting things. And I like the game
you're playing because Carolina has so many weapons. Remove Allen
(20:00):
from there and talk to me. If if Mason Rudolph
was under center, what would this team look like? I
just I like to see what quarterbacks would look like
with different receivers. So give me an interesting item there. Well,
Mason Rudolph is I I'm out on Mason Rudolph, right.
And what's funny is because I am so biased to
the Big Twelve. I'm an Oklahoma Sooners college football fan.
(20:22):
I watched pretty much all the Big twelve college football games.
So every time a guy like Mason Rudolph gets his chance,
which it's actually funny because Landry Jones from Oklahoma used
to be the backup quarterback for the Steelers, I always
think the guys are gonna be good. Like I was
convinced Mason Rudolph was gonna come in and was gonna
be okay for the Steelers, and he wasn't. He was horrible.
Uh and and you know that that's what we're seeing
(20:43):
with Kyle Allen as well. The guys that I would
like to see get a chance specifically, like with this
Carolina team, a guy named Tyree Jackson. He was the
Buffalo University quarterback in college and is on the Buffalo
Bills practice squad right now. That would be a guy
I would be really interested to see play with the
Carolina Panthers because he's kind of like the same size
(21:03):
and has the same, like similar speed to Cam Newton.
And they would not have had to change their offense
that much. Obviously, they would have had to dial back
a bunch of the precision passing stuff that Cam Newton
was able to do at a high level that someone like,
you know, an undrafted free agent from Buffalo University wasn't
gonna be able to do. But something that I think
NFL coaches are really afraid of is going with unconventional offenses.
(21:25):
We see it all the time where these backup quarterbacks
come in and it's it's run run pass, right, So
they run on first down, run on second down. Then
you go to shotgun on third down and you try
and pass. And that's what the Steelers did with Mason Rudolph.
That's what the Dolphins were doing with Josh Rosen and
that just doesn't work. That that's what the Cardinals did,
but Josh Rosen last year, it doesn't work. And I
I gotta give credit to the coach at staff and
(21:47):
Carolina for doing the best they could with Kyle Allen,
but I also at the same time got to give
them a lack of credit for their backup quarterback being
Kyle Allen in the first place, Like that's not the
kind of guy that you should wants. That should be
your third string guy, not your backup. It's quite frustrating
when this Carolina team has so many weapons that could
pay off for fantasy owners, but like you said, it
(22:08):
all depends on the guy throwing the football. And the
reason I brought up Mason Rudolph was to get to
this next game Pittsburgh in Cleveland and James Washington was
Rudolph's roommate in college, I believe, and he was on
the receiving end of a touchdown here. Did you see
this game going this way? Did you have Cleveland other side.
So this game was really close. I believe that the
I believe that the closing line here was just minus one.
(22:31):
I did think that the Browns were going to win.
This was a no bet for me, So in my
in my weekly selections, I did not make a pick here,
and it was it was mostly because I just did
not know what we were going to see from Devilin Hodges.
And I gotta say he was pretty interesting to me.
He was able to make a couple really nice deep
throws to James Washington that Mason Rudolph he just would
(22:51):
not have made those throws. Rudolph was too scared of
throwing interceptions, too scared of getting in third and long,
so he just was not letting those those passes go.
But one of the long shots to James Washington was
on second and twelve, and like, just so, think about
throwing an incomplete pass on second and twelve. Then you're
in third and long. You're basically looking at a punt,
and and it takes a certain type of quarterback to
(23:12):
be willing to take those chances and and to have
the situational awareness to know what the best decision is.
And I thought I thought Hodges played well, and I
think that, you know, it's definitely possible that this Dealer's
team with their semi easy schedule the rest of the way.
You know, obviously they're not gonna win the division that
Ravens are gonna are gonna wrap that up, but they
could again there with the a f C having such
a lack of talent. Like we were talking about the
(23:34):
Raiders as a potential playoff team two weeks ago, they've
been blown out in back to back weeks and I
think they've scored a combined twelve points in the last
two weeks, so you know, that's not particularly great. And
the Steelers, they also had a pretty solid run game
going today as well. Benny Snell, Jalen Samuel's. They both
did their job. But like you said, the big story
of this game has to be James Washington. So he
(23:55):
he was college roommates with Mason Rudolph, but he Duck
Hodges over the last week. You know what they did together.
They went duck hunting. So I think that's an even
stronger narrative than being college roommates. Here you go duck hunt.
I used to have duck Hunt for Nintendo and I
would sit with the gun right against the television. But
I'm dating myself all right speaking about being right against
the television. All football fans were for the San Francisco
(24:18):
and Baltimore game. I mean, Lamar Jackson is it's the cliche,
but he is a video game. He is a human
video game. Your thoughts, So he is a human video game. However,
I will say it would have been pretty easy for
San Francisco to win this game. There was a period
in the fourth quarter where there were four straight possessions
(24:38):
where each of the teams went four and out. So
what that means, obviously is they got to a position
where it was time to go for it on fourth down,
and neither team was able to get it. Jimmy Garoppolo
failed twice, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens failed twice, and
then finally the Ravens were able to pin together that
game winning drive. Now, they only kicked a field goal,
they did not score a touchdown, so that meant that
(24:59):
they did not over the five and a half or
the six points spread. I of course, as we know
every week, I'm always on the Baltimore raven side of
the spread, so that was a little frustrating. Uh, I
will say, you know again, Lamar great game in this one. Uh.
He he had a couple of passes that he sailed.
There was one where Mark Andrews was in the end
zone and he drew the ball behind him. If he
(25:19):
threw it in front of him, that would have been
a touchdown. There was an incredible, incredible defensive play by
a forty Niners defender where he was able to shed
his block as Lamar Jackson was running past him and
reach out and just took the ball from Lamar like
right out of his hands. And and if he had
not been able to do that, Lamar probably would have
ran all the way to the end zone. And that
(25:40):
kind of swung the momentum of a game where if
the Ravens go into halftime up and then they're able
to just run downhill for the rest of the game,
we're probably looking at a scenario where you know, mark
ingram ends up getting in the end zone, getting over
seventy rushing yards. Lamar Jackson, you know, he he could
get Hunter and twenty rushing yards and and the biggest
weapon the Ravens had in this game was Lamar's legs.
(26:02):
He he was not as efficient as a passer today absolutely,
though it does make Lamar Jackson the number five fantasy
quarterback on the slate today. When we come back, we'll
talk about what we call a trap game and we'll
identify that and then we'll move into our sports investments.
Davis has a keen eye for all kinds of strategies
and trends. Make sure you bring a pen in the
(26:23):
paper because we're going to class when the Pro Football
Rewind comes back after this, I want to light the
lamp on Draft Kings and FanDuel this NHL DFS season.
Then joined Daily Rodo dot com and learn from the
best daily fantasy sports players. Get updated fantasy hockey projections
(26:44):
for NHL DFS, blind combinations, and built stacks for tournaments
in the Daily Rodo NHL DFS Lineup Optimizer. If you
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a ten percent discount. That's Promo Code Action for its
present discount on the back into the studio. This is
(27:13):
the broad Football Rewind, the only place where we go
forward in reverse, breaking down the day's events in the
league and applying them to all of your fantasy football needs,
whether it be season long DFS or sports investments. My
name is Matt Stryker, and joining me as always is
Davis Maddock. Now, Davis, I left this game for last
because we used a term at the top of the
show called the trap game, and I'm hopeful that you'll
(27:36):
be able to explain it to viewers that may not
be familiar. Philadelphia at Miami. Why is this a trap game?
So the elements of a trap game are it's it's
generally gonna be a road favorite, so you know, a
better team is playing a worst team on the road.
It's a situation where you know, pretty much everyone expects
(27:56):
this game to go to the favorite team. They're they're
not gonna be a ton of dissenting opinions. And uh,
that's a very true statement for the Philadelphia Eagles. They
they had to win this game. They had to win
this game in order to have a chance to win
the division because the only way that they're going to
make the playoffs is winning the division. There's not gonna
be a wild card coming out of the NFC East.
And uh, the other element of it is that the
(28:18):
favorite team has to be worse than people think they are.
And that's very true of the Philadelphia Eagles, and it's
true of betting models too. You know, I don't want
to I don't want this to seem like, uh, you know,
the public is stupid. In the Las Vegas Sharps, they
know everything, because there were definitely people who bet on
the Eagles minus ten and a half points. And the
fact of the matter is the Eagles are not particularly
(28:39):
good at anything there. Carson Wentz is thirty in the
NFL in yards per passe attempt. They're not particularly good
at running the ball. Their defense is very legal average
in terms of expected points and in terms of yards
allowed per play. So what what we had was a
very bad team in the Miami Dolphins and a very
average team in the Philadelphia Eagles. And you never lay
(29:00):
ten and a half points. I mean really, you never
really do it in the NFL in general, but you
especially do not do it with a mediocre team like
the Philadelphia Eagles. So, now that you've outlined this for
what people can look at, would you be one of
the people that, if you looked at this, you say, yo,
I'm going Miami in the over here? Is that? Have
you just kind of like, crap the code? Why did
(29:22):
not bet the over? I did bet, As I mentioned earlier,
I did bet Miami ten and a half points. I
thought that, Uh, really, if you look at what Ryan
Fitzpatrick and Carson Wentz have done this year in terms
of per play efficiency, Fitzpatrick is a little bit worse
because he's super turnover prone, but in terms of completed passes,
he's actually been better than Carson Wentz. And he has
(29:44):
very similar number one wide receiver. I know this is
crazy for people, but Devonte Parker, that's the real deal.
And and now Sean Jeffrey had a huge game here,
and I think he's very talented as well, But they're
they're very similar. Mike Siki is a guy who I
have a ton of belief in the very athletic tight
end Miami has. And uh, you might notice the number
one thing that changed for the Miami Dolphins today. They
(30:06):
stopped giving the balls. A klein Blage left this game,
left this game injured, had only three rushes, of course,
recorded zero yards with them. Patrick Laird got involved in
the game, had five for forty three as a receiver.
A massive game for Davonte Parker, and uh, yeah, I
think Miami was clearly the bet here. They have been
a competitive team over the last month of the season,
(30:29):
and uh, you know the the Eagles that they're not
a particularly competitive NFL team. Present nail on the head.
It's a simple statement. And to your point, Parker the
number one wide receiver today with twenty seven point nine points.
Next behind him as Kenny Golladay, who played it seems
like eons ago, and then all Sean Jeffrey and as
far as Gaziki goes the number two tight end here
and now you throw in Layard and moving forward, maybe
(30:51):
these Miami Dolphins might have some fantasy viability. But I
wanted to pick your brain a little bit more. I
look at this Washington at CAROLINEA depending on the numbers
that had I had a thirty eight and a half
over undernod Carolina laying nine and a half, and the
road dog comes in and beats him by eight. How
do you try to see that game on the schedule
and which way would you have bet it? So you
(31:13):
just you look at that and you go, man, the
team the team that had worst quarterback plays the team
that lost this game. I don't want to say the
team with better quarterback play one because you know the
fact of the matter, it's Dwayne Haskins was not that
involved in the game. But the lesson that should be
learned for for now is guys like Kyle Allen who
have super wide ranges of outcomes. You know, he's had
(31:36):
games this year with over thirty thirty Fantasy points. You know,
had games with four interceptions. Add games with four touchdowns.
You just you don't lay, you don't lay, you know,
almost ten points. With guys who have that wide range
of outcomes, you know, very similar to Jamis Winston. It's
great to bet on Jamis Winston as an underdog because
when you bet on him when he's you know, an
underdog by a touchdown or whatever, you know they can
(31:57):
win that game out right if Jamis Winston has his
fast Paul uh, you know, they were favored today. So
it's a little bit different of a story. And I
think Alan is in a bucket like that where when
they're you know, when they're nine point dogs, sure we
like that, but when they're like big home favorites, not
interested at all. Yeah, And again I think we learn
as we go on here when we look at the spreads.
If something jumps off the paper at US, usually that
(32:19):
deserves a deeper dive. And then you look at the
over unders, and we've talked about this. When you look
at the highest totals, that's going to tell you, from
a DFS standpoint, that there's going to be cherries to
pick from that tree. I wanted to ask you again
about one last game, another low total thirty nine and
a half Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Now I stayed away. This
is a no bet game for me. But for those
(32:40):
that that live and high on the edge here, what
would those numbers there dictate? Which way would you have
played that game? So this was this was definitely a
very good game to look at that low total and say,
you know what, I think that it is going to
go even lower. We have a team in the Steelers
who is starting an undrafted free agent quarterback. We have
a team in the Cleveland Browns, who has literally been
(33:03):
the worst goal line offense in the NFL this year.
The Miami Dolphins have been better inside the ten yard
line than the Cleveland Browns. And so you look at
two teams that they're just not gonna be able to score.
If the brown score it comes from a long way out.
And another thing that we've seen from the Browns is
that they are a pretty run heavy team in neutral situations.
And when you have a two run heavy teams in
(33:25):
neutral situations, you have a shorter game, more more plays
that are not blown dead due to incomplete passes, so
drives take longer. Specifically teams that run a lot when
they have successful drives. I mean if you run ten
plays on a drive and none of those plays stopped,
I mean all of a sudden six like six minutes
of game clock is gone, and you have two of
those teams playing each other, you're looking at a game
(33:47):
that just gets shorter and shorter. So that's definitely a
situation where you want to look at the under and
the under is what occurred, and it's perfect. Now that
you have an understanding of how game scripts should go,
you can make just more are informed investments. Davis for
more information, where can people find you on the internet.
(34:07):
They can find me on Twitter at Davis Mattock. My name,
it's it's spelled out there right below. And of course
if you want to get more of the content, you know,
we like you like what Matt and I talked about
here on the show. You can definitely go to Rhoto
Experts dot com. That's where all of my fantasy content
is published, or all my season long fantasy content. All
of my daily fantasy content of course comes from Daily
(34:28):
Rhodo dot com, one of our one of our members
of the sports Grid network and uh i I we
do the sports Grid fantasy football podcasts. If you just
search my name or sports Grid that'll pop up on iTunes.
And you know, all of that should get you pretty
ready to go for every football weekend. Absolutely And hear
the confidence in his voice and see it in his eyes.
So now, Davis, this is where I've got me, pin
(34:51):
of got me paper. Start to talk to me about
who to pick up and who to drop based off
of what we've seen moving forward, because a lot of
people are fighting, some are already in the playoffs, some
are just now just trying to get there one more week.
Maybe talk to us so you can drop any Green
Bay packer not named Aaron Jones, Jamal Williams, Davante Adams,
(35:14):
or Aaron Rodgers. I know Alan Lazard had a big
game today. Pretty much all came on one. I think
it was a fifty five yard touchdown from uh from
Aaron Rodgers. But they're they're passing game. Jonima Allison three targets,
Jimmy Graham one target, Marcedes Lewis two targets, one target
for Robert Tonyan, two targets for Marquez bad scaling, So
they just really split it up there. I think someone
(35:37):
you can add is Caden Smith of the New York Giants,
the tight end, eight targets. I don't know when Evan
Ingram's coming back. I don't even know if Evan Ingram
still plays football fields like it's been so long since
we've seen him on the field. And the Giants are
gonna keep being underdogs in these games. They're gonna keep throwing,
and Caden Smith has been playing one of the Giants
offensive snaps. If someone has dropped for whatever reason, it's
(35:59):
very unlikely. But if Davante Parker is out there in
your league, he of course would be a top AD.
But from that same game, Patrick Laird ten rushes in
this game, five targets in the passing game. He is
the odds on favorite to be the lead running back
for the Miami Dolphins with Klein Balage out multiple weeks
with an injury. Had to be carted off in this game.
(36:20):
I would be surprised if we see him again this season.
He's gonna be my top waiver wire ad of the week,
of course, from the Cincinnati Bengals. Auden Tate actually led
the team in yards this week seven targets, sixty six yards.
It was Tyler Boyd to scored the touchdown Auden Tate.
Now that Andy Dalton is back under the helm, I
definitely think he is someone to target. Darius Geiss is
(36:42):
not one owned, and I know he did not get
the full backfield to himself today. Adrian Peterson actually had
more rushing rushing attempts and also scored a rushing touchdown
as well, But Darius Guys clearly the more explosive player.
Had a forty three yard touchdown run that was called
a forty two yard run, then punched in the one
yard touchdown guys, of course, would be another phenomenal ad.
(37:06):
Let me ask you, now, there are going to be
people out there that are ultimately going to jump onto
Peyton Barber here. How in fab bucks, how how would
you allocate to guys maybe layered barber guys. Give me
some numbers there Layard and guys, whatever you have left
at this point in the season, I'm comfortable blowing all
of it because you know, Layard is a really good
(37:27):
pass catcher. That's clearly a role that you need to
have in the Miami Dolphins offense because they are underdogs
in so many of these games. Uh, the same is
true for guys. If he's gonna be playing passing downs
and he just looks really explosive, like he just looks
like a guy who's gonna be able to create value
on his own even if they're surrounding offense, is not
that good? Definitely less for Peyton Barber. You know, as
(37:47):
we discussed earlier in the show, the only reason he
got to play was because Ronald Jones messed up. And
some weeks Ronald Jones isn't gonna mess up and those
numbers are gonna go to him instead of Peyton Barber.
But definitely, whatever you have left, feel free spe ending
that on Layered and or Darius. Guys. So, now, how
are you sitting here at week three moving into week fourteen?
(38:08):
What are you starting to think about what's going through
the mind of Davis Maddock. Now as we get into
the final stretch of the season. So assuming that either
your league playoffs have already started or they start next week,
I'm starting to look at championship week. I'm starting to
look at weeks fifteen and week sixteen. What are the
defenses that I need? Does my tight end have a
(38:28):
bad matchup in week fifteen or week sixteen? Do I
need to drop my tight end, pick up Tyler Higbere
or Jack Doil or Noah Fense or whoever? Do I
need to drop the defense that I have and get
a new defense. Do I need to see if I
can spend a couple of extra fab bucks on a
kicker to get things prepared, like and I'm starting to
drop guys who are just okay, Like guys who theoretically
(38:48):
you could start, but you're never that excited about it,
And I'm just picking up handcuff running backs instaid. So
like a great example of that would be Emmanuel Sanders.
He's a good player, and if you started him, you
you never hate it. You'd like, okay Sanders. He can
get some points if necessary, but he's very unlikely to
deliver you a league winning week. With how good Deevo
Samuel and George Kittle have been, so I'm fine cutting
(39:09):
him and picking up rychil Armstead or or Wayne Gallman
or Matt Brita or Alexander Madison one of these really
high end handcuffs, because those guys, if something were to
happen in the running back ahead of them, they are
very likely to be you know, top ten running backs
in the given week that they start, and that's more
valuable they have on your roster. And you mentioned looking
forward looking at defenses and tight ends for weeks fifteen
(39:33):
and sixteen. Uh, next week, the Ravens played the Jets,
the Bears play the Packers, the Bills play the Steelers.
The obvious defensive call there would be to go to Baltimore,
right or is there something else that someone could do
looking at just those three games for now? Yeah, the Ravens,
they're definitely a very strong defensive candidate. But do not
look past these Steelers either. This Steelers defensive unit, pretty
(39:55):
much everyone they've played against, they have, they've dominated, they have.
I think the stat I saw today during red zone
was that they have nineteen straight games with at least
one turnover generated. That's pretty impressive that that's pretty nice
and uh, They're definitely a team that if they were
out there in your league and you you could pick
them up and probably start them for the rest of
the fantasy playoffs. Yeah. And then you move down and
(40:17):
you see that the Patriots have the Bengals, the Seahawks
have the Panthers, the Texans have the Titans, and the
Dolphins have the Giants. I'm curious to see the pricing
on the Patriots D versus the Baltimore D. Which one
would you want for next week? I would want I
would want the Patriots. The Patriots are probably the number
one defense that if if I had them, I would
(40:38):
I would really not even be thinking about picking up
other defenses to start, all right, But we are thinking
about how to win, and when we come back, we'll
analyze the four o'clock games, and then Davis is truly
going to unpack everything that we're gonna need in order
to win. This is a pro pro football rewind or
coming back after this
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