Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Good morning, and welcome to the Home Solutions Show. This
is your host Andy Keel with Epic Realty, and I'm
joined today by Bob Zachmeyer and Jerry Sunt.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Good morning guys, on Andy Worn and Andy.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Well, we've got a lot of data to go over today,
and we've got our updates for the month of April
that have been released that we can talk about today.
So why don't we just kick it right off with
the market updates. Bob will turn it over to.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
You, all right, Well, the MLS numbers came out for
the month of April and we had one two hundred
and fifty nine sales for the month. So you know,
all of this data is not relevant unless you know
how it compares two previous months. So the number of
(00:55):
sales we had in January was nine hundred and thirty six,
February ten fifty six, March twelve forty five, and April
was twelve hundred and fifty nine. So we beat March
sales by whopping fourteen houses. And you know, when we
compare it to like, let's go back to twenty twenty two,
(01:18):
there were sixteen hundred and ninety six sales in twenty
twenty two, twelve hundred and fifty nine in twenty twenty five.
So again that's very illustrative. You know, like this is
not you know, your father's oldsmobile. This is not the
twenty twenty two market. And a lot of people when
I go out and talk to them about selling your house,
they they're still like, oh, yeah, well my friends sold
(01:38):
his for this much, and it's like that was three
years ago and that is not the case any longer.
So twelve hundred and fifty nine, I mean normally that
is higher the you know, if you go all the
way back to nineteen eighty nine, we had like five
hundred and eleven sales, but all through the even the
(01:59):
Great recession, you know, the twenty ten was twelve hundred
and twenty seven sales. So we had twelve hundred and
fifty nine, and you know, it's it's very slow compared
to last year. It's one hundred and forty less basically.
So then when you move on to what is the
median sale price in Tucson, three hundred and sixty eight
(02:23):
thousand dollars is the median sale price. And what's interesting,
the average sale price is four hundred and fifty four thousand,
So where's that difference between eighty six thousand dollars in
the difference between the average and the median. That just
tells you that there are more more expensive houses selling
than houses that are under three sixty eight. And that's
(02:45):
why the average is higher than the median. And that's
not surprising. They're just not that many homes available. If
you look at a price point, the number of homes
that sold under two hundred thousand and eighty one, the
number sold between two and three hundred, two hundred and
seventy two homes between three and four hundred thousand and
three seventy that's the highest, it's the most popular price point.
(03:09):
And between four and five hundred two oh three, and
then five to six hundred is one hundred and nineteen homes.
You get up into the higher price points six hundred
to seven hundred, sixty six homes, thirty six homes under
eight hundred forty eight under a million, twenty two, between
a million and one point two sixteen, between one point
(03:32):
two and one point three and twenty six homes were
sold in the month of April thirty days. Twenty six
homes over one point four million dollars, so almost a
house a day over one point four million dollars. Wow,
I mean, man, remember the Great recession, Jerry, you can
we were getting two homes over a million dollars a month.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Yes, I still go back to that number. And so
you think about.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
That many homes north of a million dollars selling in
a month.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
That is telling. That's a strong market.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
And then you know, this is where it's so important
to price your home. How fast are homes selling well?
Of all the homes that sold, the median is twenty
eight days, so that is the middle of all the
homes that's sold, but the average is almost twice that,
actually more than twice that, it's fifty seven days. So
(04:26):
what does that tell you? Homes sold with longer days
on market, but they had to price reduce them and
they weren't priced right out of the choot, and that's
why it took so long to sell them. So the
other thing that's kind of telling is when you look
at how many homes sold twelve hundred and fifty nine,
how many new homes came on the market two and seventeen.
(04:50):
So there's a difference of eight hundred and sixty houses
there more eight hundred and sixty more homes came on
and went off the market.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Wow, that's a really you know, a strong, strong buyer's market.
We're gaining inventory. Normally this time of year, we're actually
losing inventory because there's more buyers and less homes for sale.
Prices normally go up in the summertime, but we're actually
in the early spring. It's the strongest market and we're
still gaining inventory through this market. It has slowed downs some.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
That's you know, we always talk about that, is it
a buyer's market, Is it a seller's market?
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Is it a balanced market?
Speaker 4 (05:32):
And you know, a few weeks ago we were just
talking about this that it seemed to be tilting from
a balance market towards a buyer's market, you know, and
I think things move rapidly when things start to shift.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Do you see this more as a buyer's market?
Speaker 2 (05:46):
Now, it's definitely a buyer's market. Just from a negotiation standpoint.
The buyers are you know, hitting low with prices. They're
picking on the houses that have been on the market
a long time. And even if you just did a
price reduction, they're you know, they're still hitting you for
for even more and they can. And it's the first
(06:07):
time in thirteen years. That's because we've we've had bidding wars,
you know, for for such a long time.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Yeah, So, I mean it's I think we're seeing that.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
I noticed that in the month of really in the
month of April, and I don't want to say it
was tied to Terrace, but I think it's more just
the worry that people have when the headlines of every
you know, newspaper is is hitting you with you know,
stock market drops by this month by this much.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
You know, you know, stock market rallies by this much.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
It's just, you know, when you have so much volatility,
I think, you know, we as consumers just kind of
freeze up. And I think that is why we're seeing
this abrupt you know where I think a lot of
buyers just said, hey, I'm gonna I'm going to hold
off and not do anything for a little while and
see what happens. Right. And you know, even though the
(07:00):
stock market ended the month of April, you know exactly
where it started the month of April, so all of
the the the the volatility we saw throughout the month
all went away. I still think it leaves people with
kind of like you know, you know, shell shock.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
A little bit. They're like, I'm just gonna pause here.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
And that's why you're seeing more inventory rise because I
personally saw the number of leads people. You know, this
is not people in contract closing, but people that were
planning on buying in June July.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
You know that far out. That's what the leak ount
and those numbers really slowed down in the month of April.
Speaker 4 (07:37):
And I think it was just due to the you
know that the I think people were just kind of like,
you know, I guess shells, you know, kind of beating
up a bit, so they just put a pause on
their their buying plans.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Now, those terrorists are affecting a lot of things. I mean,
I think the the Vatican dodged a bullet because they
got a made in America pope and they don't.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Yeah, right, So.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Some all the pope memes flying around there, there's one
that's got a kind of a Ditkaike thing dub Hope,
you know, like the old Saturday Night Live skit. But anyway,
the twenty one hundred and seventeen new homes came on
the market and twelve hundred and fifty nine went off.
And then this is interesting. In January, our median price
(08:25):
was three sixty five, and when you compared it to
January a year ago, it was three fifty five. So
in January the price was ten thousand higher than it
was the previous year. In February our price was three seventy,
so went up five thousand. The previous year it went
up five thousand. It's still ten thousand higher, so three
seventy versus three sixty. In March it actually equaled out
(08:48):
where both years are three sixty five, and now we
are at three sixty eight. Last year, at this time,
the median home price was three seventy four, so we're
actually now six thousand dollars behind where we were last year.
And you know, we've been talking about this for a
while that all of the increase in prices that happened
(09:08):
during COVID, they have not been absorbed by the market yet,
and we're going to see this not a free fall
like two thousand and eight, but there's a slide going
on that just you know, at best homes are going sideways,
and most homes, if you look at your zilo's estimate history,
there's a ten year history. Go search your home on Zillo,
(09:29):
scroll down until you see a little link that says
estimate history, and you'll see a graph for the last
ten years based on your home square feet and what
that neighborhood median home price is. They'll they'll show you
what the value of your property is. And most people
are seeing a slide just to absorb that one hundred
thousand plus that every house in America went up during COVID.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
Now, you know, and Bob, I think it's there are
all these forecasts coming out from the Zillo and Red
Fins of and even case Shiller, right, you know, which
is kind of the benchmark for values, and that you know,
we're going to see slower growth throughout the end of
the year.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
You know, appreciation will be will be slower.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
You know, I haven't seen anything really where where I'm
not seeing signs that, you know, houses are going to
decrease in value. If it is, it would be a
very small percentage. But it's really just things are going
to be kind of even for throughout the end of
the year.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
And now what could.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
Change all that lower interest rates, brakes drop, then things
will change on.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
A dime and and Jerry, I definitely think that. But
just think if you're a VA buyer and if you're
in the military and you get moved every three years,
and you buy a home now with zero percent down,
and the market is not only not gaining anything, it's
either going flattered down slightly. What does that do to
you when you go to sell your home three years
from now. Yeah, now, down payment matters.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Down payment matters, no, for sure, But if rates do
come down, I think buyers will jump in the market.
And so you know, the question is when. And rates
are still sitting right below you know, seven percent, they're
just not moving much and they seem and I don't
think that's going to change in the next thirty sixty
ninety days. Now they keep the forecast for the end
(11:23):
of the year is that rates will be closer to
six percent. I don't know what's going to propel rates
to move lower between you know what's going to be
the catalyst to move rates lower. But the big houses,
everyone from National Association, Real Orners, Mortgage Bankers Association, Chase, Wells, Fargo,
be of A, you know, the big names, they're all
predicting mortgage rates be close to six percent by the
(11:45):
end of the year, so something is going to be
the catalyst to move rates lower.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Well, that would be nice. I mean, it would really
help affordability. And that's really what's causing everybody to kind
of slam on the brakes, is you know, fear of
the unknown.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Yeah, definitely a lot of an uncertainty out there in
the market, whether it's stock market, real estate market, just
there's a good bit of fear out there that I
think are holding a lot of people back from taking
any kind of action.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
And hey, before we hit the break, Andy, don't forget
to go out to notecarriy dot com to see our
podcast for the Home Solutions Show notecarrie dot com.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
And with that, we are coming up on a break.
This is Andy Keel with the Home Solutions Show and
we will be right back. Good morning, and welcome back
to the Home Solutions Show. This is your host, Andy
Keel with Epic Realty and I can be reached at
five two zero five three nine nine five nine one,
(12:46):
and I'm joined again by Jerry Sunt with Cross Country
Mortgage and Bob Zachmeyer with exp Realty. Guys, want to
share your numbers for the audience, Go ahead, Jerry.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Five two zero three zero nine seven six.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
And Jerry has been my go to linder for more
than thirteen years now, and I just can't say enough
good things about about him. So my number, Bob Zachmeyer,
you can reach me five to zero three one four sold.
And Andy, you wanted to talk about the statement I
made that said we're pretty much in a buyer's market,
(13:24):
and let's discuss that further.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Yeah, I don't want to maybe quite go so far
as to say I have a dissenting opinion, but I
don't know if I wholly agree with that. And I
wanted to talk about that a little bit. And specifically
what I'm referring to is, again we can't share this
lovely slide with the listening audience. But the data we're
looking at has two and seventeen new listings, which is
(13:50):
up three hundred and twelve from last year. We're definitely
getting some more inventory. We definitely are seeing buyers with
a lot more negotiating power. But looking at this and
it's still three point seven to nine months supply of inventory,
and I go back to the stance of a neutral
market is considered between five and seven months supply and
(14:13):
from that definition, we're not even into a neutral territory.
But I still feel, like you say, Bob, I feel
the softness in the market. So I don't know, do
we have a new norm with with months supply of
inventory or That's why I'm dissenting a little bit with
the whole Are we are in a buyer's marketer? I
don't think we're a seller's market, but I would say
more of a neutral.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
It's kind of interesting, you know, of all the different
price points the MLS segments one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten,
there's eleven different price point segments, and you know, I
read off how many homes were available on each price point,
how many sold at each price point. But what's interesting
is the days on market. The lowest days on market
(14:56):
were homes that sold between six hundred and seven hundred thousand.
Those homes sold in seventeen days. When you look at
houses under two hundred, which you would think would be
by far the most in demand houses, the most affordable homes,
the days on market was twenty eight instead of seventeen.
And when you look at homes two hundred to three hundred,
(15:17):
the days on market's thirty two, and the homes at
six hundred to seven hundred and only at seventeen days
on market, and then there's really a kind of a
dead spot between eight hundred and a million. Those homes
took forty two days on market to sell, which is
twice as long as the five to six hundred thousand ons.
But then when you jump over a million, it drops
back down to twenty eight days on market, and when
(15:38):
you go over one point four million, it's twenty one
days on market. So you know, it's really kind of
interesting how the very expensive houses don't they're not affected
by the economy. Those people aren't hit by inflation. They
have wealth that they've generated over their lifetimes, and you know,
inflation isn't isn't effect and you know those that didn't
(16:03):
plan so well and they're depending on their job and
the economy and now everything in your life. Just you know,
your dollar in the last four years went from a
dollar to eighty cents. It's basically lost twenty percent of
its buying power. You know, that affects people that are
depending on that paycheck from their earned income, but people
that have investments that are funding everything now granted, retired
(16:25):
people don't have earned income, they have investment income, and
most of them are reeling because of the cost of
everything in their life going up. So I mean, it's
definitely a tale of two cities. But as I've said
many times the last several years, I've seen more proof
of funds for home purchases and more cash purchases, and
i've ever seen the proof of funds almost always come
(16:48):
from Morgan Stanley or another stock brokerage house.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Yeah, that's pretty interesting, it seems like, and I agree,
it really does feel like a tale of two markets
here where we talked about this many times in the
last year and a half or so, where up until
about six months ago we had a really strong over
a million dollar market. It did slow down, but now
looks like it's picking back up again. So I find
(17:16):
that rather interesting. And then, as you pointed out, Bob,
the under two hundred thousand market is the slowest to move,
and of course we realized that's either properties that are
way out in the boonies or need a lot of
work so that in many cases aren't financible. So exactly
surprised me.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
So, Jerry, what does the bank have to say about
rural properties like our way out in Douglas, or not
even Douglas, like Saint David or place like that as.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
Far as well.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
I mean, you know a lot of homes in those
areas are financed with rural housing loans or USDA and
it's some exciting.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
News has happened in that front as of late.
Speaker 4 (17:55):
And what that is is that you know, a good
a large percentage of home homes in rural areas around
the state of Arizona are manufactured homes. USCA would not
allow for a resale of a manufactured home and so
that you know, left people having to go faha and
put money down and so forth.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Now that has changed.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
The USDA just changed their guidelines last week and are
allowing for the financing one hundred percent of the value
of the home for resale of manufactured homes.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
That's a huge, a huge benefit.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
So it is a huge benefit.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
So I think you're going to see, you know, that
will be very valuable moving forward for for even you know, areas, all.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
The rural areas right around Tucson.
Speaker 4 (18:46):
You know, I get calls from you know, weekly from
buyers who want to use the USDA program on a
manufactured home and it's like, well, you can't.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
Do it, but now you can no.
Speaker 4 (18:58):
Now the key is and I don't have the the
exact you know, data in front of me, but the
age of the manufactured home is very specific. It cannot
be you know, we go back to seventy six for
VA FHA and conventional and USDA is going to be
like only twenty years. So the manufactured home cannot be
older than I know there's some formula, but I want
(19:20):
to say it's like somewhere.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
In the nineties. But I'll get that data for you
on the next.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
Break, Okay, And then Jerry, what is the limit to
how many times that manufactured home has been relocated?
Speaker 4 (19:31):
I mean that's only once. You can only read you know,
it has to be set in place once except for VA.
VA has an exception for that. And it's loud to
be that manufactured home can be moved a few times.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Because sometimes you know people, you know, when I was
filling a mobile home park, I was buying up older
manufactured homes and having a moved into my mobile home
park back in twenty twelve, and you know, the people
that were trying to buy them and move them, they
couldn't sell them because the people that wanted to get
a loan couldn't get a loan on them because they'd
(20:05):
been moved more than once.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Now, the only way you can buy a manufactured home
that has been moved more than once is going.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
DA or private, probably private, of course for those that
aren't on veterans, I mean be a loan. It has
the lowest loan rates, it has the no loan insurance.
That's what you get for your service to the company.
The government picks up the loan insurance premium the mortgage
insurance premium. So you know that is by far, if
(20:33):
you're a veteran, you use it. I mean, that's that's
the best loan out there, lowest down payment, highest return
on investment. However, if you're not a veteran, then what's
the best option. Well, on these rural properties us DA
loans you can actually get some of your closing costs too.
If I'm not mistaken, DR correct.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
It can be financed.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Yeah, one hundred and two percent. They'll give you of
the property purchase price. And that's the department. You know,
the people that put the stamp on your state. The
US Department of Agriculture is giving loans for one hundred
and two percent of the purchase price. That seems like
they're kind of operating out of their lane, don't you think.
But it is for.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
Rural property for years.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
Yeah, yeah, and it was intended, you know, to help farmers.
But when you when you look at it, almost every
property in Salrita and up in Gladden Farms and all
that that's all still zoned by the USDA is rural property,
even though it's a huge subdivision up in Gladden Farms
and down in Salrita.
Speaker 3 (21:32):
So correct.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
So anyway, what's the availability look like? If you are
looking right now to buy a single family home, there
are three thousand, two hundred and ninety eight homes on
the market. If you're looking for a town home three
hundred and thirty four and a condo two hundred and
fifty nine, and manufactured homes one hundred and ninety seven.
So you know that's we're closing in on five thousand.
(21:58):
We haven't seen a five one thousand inventory since I
have to look back. I mean, obviously during the Great
Recession we got almost to eleven thousand, but it's been
that long, I mean since like twenty twelve, So we're,
you know, the highest inventory in twelve years right now
of homes on the market for sale.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
Yeah, it'd be interesting to look at that statistic, but
I want to say it is like right around the
twenty sixteen sticks in my mind and I don't know why,
but that shows you that, you know how long it
is taken to get back to that inventory level. And
you know, the goodness is buyers have a lot to
choose from.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Yep, and more every day because we are gaining inventory.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Yeah, there's definitely more selection out there. It seems like
there's definitely some softening up. Even like one of the articles,
I don't have it up on my screen here, but
read something recently where Zillo is even predicting a decline
in the market prices. And I don't remember, as long
as I've been watching Zillo them ever doing that before.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Yeah, but I refer to that in the first segment, Andy,
and I think it's that the decline is very very
if it's if it's a decline, it's less than one percent,
it's like almost break even a redfin was right about
like one percent appreciation.
Speaker 3 (23:19):
They're all kind of just saying it's going to be
flat for the remainder of the year.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
Agreed. Again, I'm not predicting any kind of gloom or
doom here either. I think Zilla was predicting down just
about a percent or thereabouts. And of course we're still
buying properties. If the numbers work, we're still buying ourselves.
So I'm not predicting any kind of major hiccup right now.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Oh no. I mean real estate's always, you know, a
good investment. Just actually more people are afraid to buy
in a market that's down then, and this is the
best time to buy because you can negotiate. I mean,
this is the best buying opportunity we've had in over
thirteen years. And you know when if you look at
the inventory that you had available. Just at the end
of the month of April in twenty twenty two, there
(24:06):
were thirteen hundred and ninety homes on the market for sale.
In twenty three, that number from thirteen ninety jumped up
to sixteen eighty four, and then it doubled in twenty
twenty four to thirty two ninety four. And now we
are at four thousand, seven hundred and seventy one home.
So we went from thirteen ninety to forty seven seventy
one in three years. That's triple the number of homes
(24:28):
for sale, and the number of buyers in the market
right now is down by forty percent. So don't forget
to go to notecarriy dot com to catch our podcast
going forward on this program.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Yeah, and we are coming up on a break. This
is Andy Keel with the Home Solutions Show and we
will be right back. Good morning, and welcome back to
the Home Solutions Show. This is your host, Andy Keel
with Epic Realty and I can be reached at five
two zero five three nine nine five nine one and
again joined by Bob Zachmeyer and Jerry Sunt. Jerry, if
(25:05):
you'd be so kind as to expand on what the
what the interest rate market and what the mortgage market
has been doing in this last week and where we stand.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
It's about as boring as it can be. It's flat,
it is. Rates just have not moved much.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
You know, we expected mortgage rates to improve, but then
on Thursday, you know, when the announcement that the US
and the UK have come to a tariffs agreement, there
was a sell off in the bond market which made
mortgage rates move higher. And you know, everyone's kind of
still scratching their head why and was it? You know,
(25:46):
there was also a bond auction that same day and
was at the catalyst, but they moved slightly higher. But
these are all very, very mighty movements. But rates are
sitting right below seven percent. They're you know, six point
eight seven five to six point nine to five, you
know it. This is I just don't seem much changing
(26:07):
in the next few months, given all the unknowns that
are out there, until you get you know, what will
what will make mortgage rates drop, unemployment rate really is
going to have to move higher, or the economy is
really going to have to soften. And I don't see
the UH, you know, the economy softening anytime soon.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
It's very resilient.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
And just last Friday, the jobs report that came out
was stronger than expected. There's all this doom and gloom
in the UH, in the press about the the the
economy softening, and I think it is, but the underpinning
economy is still very vibrant and strong. So I just
don't know what the catalyst is to move rates to
(26:51):
six percent. But I'm still hopeful, you know, very hopeful
that rates will move to that direction. Now, one thing
you will see, Andy, is fifteen year fixed mortgage is.
I had a buyer this week putting twenty percent down
to a fifteen year fixed mortgage, paid one discount point,
and his rate was five point five percent on a
(27:11):
fifteen year. Wowow, I have not you know, I have
not been able to say five point five in a
few years. Right then, so the spread, you know, fifteen
year fixed mortgages are really attractive. If the borrower wasn't
paying a discount point, the rate was five point eight
seven five. So you know that fifteen year fixed mortgage
(27:34):
is now. Yes, I know it's more expensive, and with
prices the way they've moved higher, it's harder for a
family to pay that fifteen year fixed mortgage rate or payment.
But if you can and it's comfortable within your budget,
that fifteen year fix is a great option.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
Yeah, I have a quick question on that though. That
really only applies towards owner occupied properties though, correct, Jerry, Because.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
The and we looked at there's no benefit.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
Yeah. Last time we looked at a fifteen year and
an investment, it was about the same as the thirty
and we were kind of going, well, that's not worth.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
It, exactly, it is not worth it.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
One of the other things I noticed last week more
appropriate didn't notice last week with the the lack of
announcement of an interest rate cut, with just leaving things alone.
The market just shrugged that off like it was nothing.
And I mean usually when we have a FED announcement,
the market a whip saw even if they do nothing,
and it kind of just shrugged it off like yep,
(28:33):
we expected it.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
Yeah it is, you know, everyone, it seems like all
the other big you know, major countries are lowering their
interest rates, you know, to absorb for or to prepare
for a softening economy due to tariffs, you know, Bank
of England, the UK, you know, or to me, the
euro You're starting to see that everyone's kind of lowering
(28:59):
their bar cost.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
Australia did it as well.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
This week, but the US is holding steady, and I
think it's just because the Federal Reserve sees the economy
is as strong and that they have time to wait
this out.
Speaker 3 (29:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
I think that's pretty much J. Powell's approach is. I
think the comment I remember reading earlier last week was
that the economy is not as bad as we think.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Well, this tariff thing. I mean, everybody's scared of what
it's going to do to short term prices. But I
mean if it swings where our exports to other countries
are in higher demand because now they're priced appropriately and
they're in a fair market to compete, that'll create a
ton of jobs over here. And then the amount of
money that they collect in tariffs, First of all, you know,
(29:52):
part of it will go to pay down the deficit
that got run up over the last twenty years and
mainly in the last four years. And then the of it.
You know, they're talking about cutting out income tax for
anybody that makes under two hundred thousand dollars a year.
That would be a huge godsend. And you know, I
love the idea of no tax on overtime because if
(30:12):
you are, you know, there's so many people sitting around
collecting unemployment and here's the people that are not only
working a full time job but going out and doing
the extra and whatever they have to do to feed
their family and keep all the bills on the table.
And then the more you make, the more the higher
tax rate you get into. So I love the idea
that if you're going to go over and above that
that's just your money and not the government's money because
(30:34):
they didn't do anything for it.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
Yeah, I really like that idea with the overtime lack
of tax on the overtime.
Speaker 4 (30:43):
I think, you know, it's I think people a lot
of I get a lot of questions, now, how does
tariffs affect real estate? And I don't think it really.
I mean it does indirectly, right for new home sales.
It could affect new home sales because the price of
materials will be higher. Which will you know, whether the
(31:06):
builder is going to you know, absorb that cost or
whether they're going to pass it on to the consumers
Yet to be determined. But does that mean new home
sales are going to be you know, on average ten
thousand dollars home more expensive?
Speaker 3 (31:20):
Who knows? I think it really.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
When it comes to resales, it's all about well, could
it affect mortgage rates? Yes, if the economy softens, then
mortgage rates will come down. But I think the the
indirect correlation is that people, you know, everyone's kind of worried.
People are just worried and concerned about what the future brings.
(31:43):
And when they're people are worried or have unknowns. They
just don't buy, They don't consume, they don't buy cars,
they don't buy homes, They just kind of you need
that confidence to be able to make a big purchase.
And that's what we need to get back. And hopefully,
you know, is that we get through this TEARFF situation
(32:03):
in the short term I in June, and that people's
confidence will come roaring back.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
And I think a lot of this is going to
be posturing. It'll end up. You know that everybody thinks
that the worst in the stock market always you know,
buy on the rumor sell on the news. Well, you know,
all the people are starting to do the calculations like, hey,
what if if the US market got cut off to
our products? What would that do to our to our country?
And and they're all realizing this is a huge thing
(32:31):
that we can't afford to happen. And I think they're
all going to come crawling back. And I think it's
genius what's happening right now, And it should have happened,
you know, decades ago, a long time ago.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
I don't agree.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Hey, I wanted to share if for those of you
looking or knowing, if somebody that has is looking for
a first time home. This is a beautiful, cute as
a button little house with a brand new air conditioner.
Last year and the couple got married and the husband's
house was bigger than the wife. So the wife is
selling hercute little house. It's at forty five seventy one
(33:05):
East Sixth Street in Tucson. That's right near Poet's Corner
and Poet Square, right in the middle of the heart
of Tucson, between Broadway and Speedway, near Albernon. Beautiful little neighborhood.
Two hundred and fifty five thousand, two bedroom, one bath,
eight hundred and forty square foot home with a covered carport.
(33:27):
I don't think you're going to find anything. I mean
the all brand new appliances, washerton, dryer, come along, glass
tile backsplash, granite countertops. I mean, it's really done up nicely.
And it wasn't done as a flip. It was done
by actually the seller's parents, our college cog. You know,
we went to college together in North Dakota back in
(33:50):
nineteen seventy nine and eighty together. And now their daughter
is actually buying my house and I sold there's a
few years ago. And Andy, you actually bought the house
from the parents, and they carried the loan for you,
and they're getting paid every month on that loan.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Yep, and we still have the house.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Yeah, And this is the real estate and the gift
that keeps on giving. So now I'm finding that with
a lot of my clients. I mean, they started off
investing when they were younger, and now their kids are
all graduating college and buying homes and guess where they
send them right back to me. So it's kind of
a full circle. I love it. I love helping people
with their finances. But check it out. It's really good,
(34:28):
cute little house and it should be pretty much maintenance
free for a very long time. Four or five seven
to one East Sixth Street in Tucson.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Thanks, And we're coming up towards the end of the segment.
I have just a little bit of time left here.
So I wanted to share just kind of a well
my own version of a stupid criminal story that I
thought was kind of entertaining. We had bought a manufactured
home and it was on a one acre parcel, and
(34:58):
I'll just say p mccounty and the reason we purchased
this is our business partner's mom needed a home base,
so she happily lived there for a number of years,
and unfortunately she had to go into assisted living. So
we ended up taking the property back, cleaning it up
(35:19):
a little bit, and getting it ready to put on
the market. Well, we got a call out of the
blue from the Pima County Sheriff's Department not long ago saying, hey,
somebody might want to come over here. We found your
air conditioner. Wait what So it turns out that one
of the neighbors had a domestic violence charge called in
(35:42):
against them, and when the sheriff went to investigate that,
they literally saw our air conditioner dragged from our house
over to the neighbor's house, completely disassembled, like they are
trying to do something with it.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
Oh wow.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
And not only did they get in trouble. I don't
know if an arrest was made, but there was a
police but at any rate, they destroyed our air conditioner
like they were trying to do something with it and
resell it or what have you. And we ended up
putting an insurance claimant on that and getting a whole
new air conditioning out of it because they were too
stupid to even cover up the tracks.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
So had they drained all the free on on them
and just let it out into the air.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
I think so, because what we found was just a
disassembled pile of pile of parts. It was like somebody
was dealing with an addiction issue and we're trying to
tinker with it or do something. I have no idea
what their thinking process was, but yeah, they still our
air conditioner and luckily insurance covered that one. So I
thought that was kind of a kick. So it worked out. Okay,
(36:41):
we got a brand new air conditioning unit out of
the deal. So anyway, I thought i'd share that kind
of fun story along the lines that we just can't
make this stuff up. And with that, we are coming
up on a break. This is Andy Keel with Epic
Realty and we'll be right back. Hi, and welcome back
to the Home Solution Show. This is your host, Andy
(37:01):
Keel with Epic Realty, and I'm joined again by Bob
zach Meyer and Jerry Sunt. We announced earlier about our
upcoming podcast and transition, but Bob, would you like to
talk to that about that point one more time please,
because it's kind of a big transition for all of us.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
Sure, So we are basically sliding from the panst. I'm
sure they will replace us with other people in the profession.
They're in the business of selling airtime. We've been on
the air now for thirteen years and I'm sixty five
years old, and I'm trying to slow down. And quite honestly,
(37:38):
the cost of the radio station was by far the
biggest bill that I have in my household. And you know,
the whole idea is when you retire, you're supposed to
slow down. And I mean, I'll never not do anything,
but I just I love I love doing the show.
I love you, you know you guys. I mean the
reason we call it Home Solutions. There's not much that
(38:01):
we can't handle. I mean, most people mainstream are going
to go to Jerry Sunt They're going to get a loan.
He's got the lowest fees around. He's been around the block.
He's always like ranked in the top twenty or thirty
in the nation. So that experience, but then Andy and
I feel the gaps where I do private financing with
people that can't get a loan. And what's kind of
(38:22):
ironic right now is most real estate agents in this
country cannot get a home loan right now because they
aren't selling enough property to justify the payment. And so
here's the person showing you houses that couldn't even buy
one themselves. And you know, we have private financing for
a lot of people that don't have W two income.
They're self employed business owners, they have the strong work ethic,
(38:46):
they have a tremendous amount of money to put down
because they don't work forty hour weeks, they worn't work
eighty or one hundred hour weeks, and those are the
people the banks have excluded. So if you have someone
that can't qualify at the bank because they don't have
two years on their because they don't have a W
two and they work a long job and they only
get paid every every couple of months in spurts, the
(39:07):
banks don't like that and they're not going to give
a loan. So we cover that. But the minimum down
payment that I require is fifteen percent, and that is
a lot of money. When your average home price in
Tucson is forty dollars four hundred thousand dollars, fifteen percent
of four hundred thousand is sixty thousand. That's a tremendous
amount of money to come up with, so not everybody
(39:28):
has that. Actually very few people have that, and that's
where Andy comes in. Andy has a lease to own
or a lease option program that basically allows people to
get a house lockdown treated as their own for ten years.
They have ten years to actually pull the trigger and
exercise the option. During that time, Andy can't sell that
(39:50):
house to anybody else. It's your home. And you know,
if the market goes down, it's an option. Option is
the right, but not the obligations. So you have the
option of buying it. So obviously, if the house went
up fifty thousand dollars, you would say, yeah, let's buy it,
and if it went down, you'd say walk away. And Andy,
what is your the fee that you charge for the option.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
We do a forty nine hundred dollars option. It's a
non refundable option fee. But that basically locks them into
the property for the next ten years. As you said,
we can't force them out. It's their home. As long
as they're making the payments and keeping the property up.
There's nothing we can do to boot them, nor would
we ever want to. So it gives them a lot
(40:36):
of protection and we've got a lot of our residents
that come to us because they were perfectly happy where
they were at for the last eight ten, twelve, fifteen.
We just had one that was in their house for
twenty five years as a renter and the landlord just
sold it out from under them, so it came to
us because they never want that to happen to them again.
And we had another one very recently that was in
(40:57):
their home for a very long time and there was
an electrical short in the garage and burnt the whole
house down, so they needed something pretty quickly. So it's
a great program for someone who isn't ready to buy,
but either would like to buy or just would like
the peace of mind to not have to worry about
their landlord giving him a boot at some point in
the future.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
Yep. So I mean, there you go. There's forty nine
hundred bucks and then of course one month's security deposit
because it is a rental agreement and an option, so
you have the right to buy the house and not
the obligation. And it's just I've invested with Andy on
these deals since eighteen Andy.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
I believe so yes, so.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
You know it works, and it's so we have an
avenue for everybody to get in. So the bottom line
is we're not going to be on KNST after May
of this year. So if you go to notecarrie dot
com and ote c A R R Y dot com,
that is my coaching website. But I have the in
(42:00):
a web site to host the program and there's a
banner on it right now, there's no content out there yet,
but there's a banner out there. It's coming soon Home
Solutions Radio shows. So we're going to be out there
on the podcast and we can start taking the recordings
from these last few episodes and put out there as well.
And from that point forward, you can listen in your car,
(42:23):
you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Google Play, I mean,
whatever you like to listen to, podcasts will be out
there and instead of having to be glued to the
radio every Sunday at ten o'clock in the morning. So
again notecarrie dot com and Jerry and Andy and I
will will be out there, and I think there's a
lot of good content and we'll just keep going what
(42:45):
we're doing without the five thousand plus dollars a month cost.
Speaker 1 (42:51):
So I want to do elaborate on something you mentioned, Bob,
we really like hearing about these one off in weird situations.
Between the three of us, we can almost certainly figure
out a solution. And it brought up a situation from
one of the radio show listeners a few years ago.
The two brothers, You remember that one. I'm referring to Bob,
(43:13):
that the two brothers that did not get along and
Mom was in some kind of like memory care facility.
I believe there was two properties. The property that mom
lived in before she had to go into the assisted
living and then there was a rental property that the
family had owned for some time. The two brothers just
(43:35):
for whatever reason, just could not get along.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
Well, the scoundrel and one was a saint. Well, and
the one that was the scoundrel basically emptied the mom's
checking account and got heard to deed the property over
to his half of the property over to him and
then refused to let the other brother get his half
out of it. And that's where the impass came. And
(43:58):
I told him this was a you know, someone that
listens to the radio program called me and I said,
you know what, this is beyond my scope. I can't
list a home that you don't have the right to
sell well, Andy, and so Andy, Yeah, keep going. That
was a great story.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Yeah, that was a lot of fun. So you know, basically,
who's who's crazy enough to buy half of two houses?
Because that's that's actually what we were we were doing
because one one brother owned and the titling was technically
tenants in common, so they legitimately each owned half of
the house. Going into this, we knew exactly what we
(44:34):
were dealing with because we know how to handle these situations.
It's referred to as a partition sale when you have
multiple owners and one either wants to sell and the
other one doesn't, or there's some conflict there. So we
bought half of these two properties from the brother that's
the radio show listener, and I knew full well that
(44:58):
I wasn't going to do anything until we we finish
the transaction. Then I'd have to go after the other
brother and potentially sue him for a partition sale to
basically force the sale of the house. It turned out
that once I had the title issue worked out, I
called the other brother and he was more than happy
to sell the house because he's making some money on it.
Speaker 2 (45:19):
And it was as long as his brother wasn't getting it.
He was fine with selling it. So you and I
actually have a friend in Texas. That's all he does
is he looks for estate sales where there's family members
that oftentimes one member of the family stays in the
house and takes care of mom and dad, and when
they die, they don't want to leave. They've been living
for free all this time and they don't want to leave,
(45:40):
and the other siblings want to sell the home and
get their inheritance, and this person doesn't want to leave.
So my friend goes in and buys the other siblings out,
and he knocks on the door and gets the most
derelict person he can to become a renter and say like, hey,
this is your new roommate. They're going to live in
my half of the house. And it's funny situation. But
(46:01):
you know, there's some weird stuff and I'm between us all.
I mean, we've seen almost everything, but there's always something new.
Every year, there's something that you never imagine could happen.
So but I don't think you're going to find a
better group of problem solvers anywhere. So again, go to
Wwwnoecarrie dot com. And that's where you can find future
(46:22):
episodes of our show, and after next week's show, we
will not be on KNST any longer. It's sad thirteen years,
but it's a time. It's time to move to a
new venue, and it's it's actually more accessible for our clients.
So real quick, if you want to know how, you know.
The most important statistic in real estate is the absorption rate.
(46:47):
And this goes back to Andy's point, are we in
a seller's market or not? Across the board, the absorption
rate in Tucson last month was twenty six point three percent,
So that means of all the homes that were listed
for sale, six percent sold. That would say it's actually
a neutral market, not a buyer's market. And when you
break it down by single family homes, it's twenty six.
(47:09):
When you look at town homes, it's thirty one percent
were sold lower price usually condos twenty six percent, manufactured
homes twenty six, mobile homes older than nineteen seventy six
seventeen percent. And then when you look at it by
price point, the lowest absorption rate was the one point
four million and above and that's so there's a twelve
(47:31):
point nine percent absorption rate there twelve point nine percent
of the properties were sold. The next lowest is between
seven and eight hundred thousand, and that was a nineteen
point nine percent absorption rate. But the two to three
hundred thousand last month had a thirty eight percent absorption
rate that was by far the highest of any price
point of any home or condo or town home or
(47:56):
manufactured home in Tucson. So any parting thoughts you.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
Guys, Well, I think that goes back to what you
always say, Bob, is when you think of real estate
like a pyramid with the starter home, the single family homes,
and that in that like two to three hundred price
ranges the base of the pyramid, they always will have
the highest demand. People will move up to them and
bad times move down to them, or the opposite of that,
move up to them and bad good. Yeah, move up
(48:22):
to them in good times and scale down to those
in bad times. And there's always a lot of demand
for those the entry level type homes.
Speaker 2 (48:30):
So we're coming up to the close. Don't forget to
go to notecarry dot com and book Market.
Speaker 1 (48:36):
And thanks for sharing your Sunday with us again. This
is Andy Keel with Epic Realty and thanks for joining
us on the Home Solution Show.
Good morning, and welcome to the Home Solutions Show. This
is your host Andy Keel with Epic Realty, and I'm
joined today by Bob Zachmeyer and Jerry Sunt.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Good morning guys, on Andy Worn and Andy.
Speaker 1 (00:17):
Well, we've got a lot of data to go over today,
and we've got our updates for the month of April
that have been released that we can talk about today.
So why don't we just kick it right off with
the market updates. Bob will turn it over to.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
You, all right, Well, the MLS numbers came out for
the month of April and we had one two hundred
and fifty nine sales for the month. So you know,
all of this data is not relevant unless you know
how it compares two previous months. So the number of
(00:55):
sales we had in January was nine hundred and thirty six,
February ten fifty six, March twelve forty five, and April
was twelve hundred and fifty nine. So we beat March
sales by whopping fourteen houses. And you know, when we
compare it to like, let's go back to twenty twenty two,
(01:18):
there were sixteen hundred and ninety six sales in twenty
twenty two, twelve hundred and fifty nine in twenty twenty five.
So again that's very illustrative. You know, like this is
not you know, your father's oldsmobile. This is not the
twenty twenty two market. And a lot of people when
I go out and talk to them about selling your house,
they they're still like, oh, yeah, well my friends sold
(01:38):
his for this much, and it's like that was three
years ago and that is not the case any longer.
So twelve hundred and fifty nine, I mean normally that
is higher the you know, if you go all the
way back to nineteen eighty nine, we had like five
hundred and eleven sales, but all through the even the
(01:59):
Great recession, you know, the twenty ten was twelve hundred
and twenty seven sales. So we had twelve hundred and
fifty nine, and you know, it's it's very slow compared
to last year. It's one hundred and forty less basically.
So then when you move on to what is the
median sale price in Tucson, three hundred and sixty eight
(02:23):
thousand dollars is the median sale price. And what's interesting,
the average sale price is four hundred and fifty four thousand,
So where's that difference between eighty six thousand dollars in
the difference between the average and the median. That just
tells you that there are more more expensive houses selling
than houses that are under three sixty eight. And that's
(02:45):
why the average is higher than the median. And that's
not surprising. They're just not that many homes available. If
you look at a price point, the number of homes
that sold under two hundred thousand and eighty one, the
number sold between two and three hundred, two hundred and
seventy two homes between three and four hundred thousand and
three seventy that's the highest, it's the most popular price point.
(03:09):
And between four and five hundred two oh three, and
then five to six hundred is one hundred and nineteen homes.
You get up into the higher price points six hundred
to seven hundred, sixty six homes, thirty six homes under
eight hundred forty eight under a million, twenty two, between
a million and one point two sixteen, between one point
(03:32):
two and one point three and twenty six homes were
sold in the month of April thirty days. Twenty six
homes over one point four million dollars, so almost a
house a day over one point four million dollars. Wow,
I mean, man, remember the Great recession, Jerry, you can
we were getting two homes over a million dollars a month.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Yes, I still go back to that number. And so
you think about.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
That many homes north of a million dollars selling in
a month.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
That is telling. That's a strong market.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
And then you know, this is where it's so important
to price your home. How fast are homes selling well?
Of all the homes that sold, the median is twenty
eight days, so that is the middle of all the
homes that's sold, but the average is almost twice that,
actually more than twice that, it's fifty seven days. So
(04:26):
what does that tell you? Homes sold with longer days
on market, but they had to price reduce them and
they weren't priced right out of the choot, and that's
why it took so long to sell them. So the
other thing that's kind of telling is when you look
at how many homes sold twelve hundred and fifty nine,
how many new homes came on the market two and seventeen.
(04:50):
So there's a difference of eight hundred and sixty houses
there more eight hundred and sixty more homes came on
and went off the market.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
Wow.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
Wow, that's a really you know, a strong, strong buyer's market.
We're gaining inventory. Normally this time of year, we're actually
losing inventory because there's more buyers and less homes for sale.
Prices normally go up in the summertime, but we're actually
in the early spring. It's the strongest market and we're
still gaining inventory through this market. It has slowed downs some.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
That's you know, we always talk about that, is it
a buyer's market, Is it a seller's market?
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Is it a balanced market?
Speaker 4 (05:32):
And you know, a few weeks ago we were just
talking about this that it seemed to be tilting from
a balance market towards a buyer's market, you know, and
I think things move rapidly when things start to shift.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Do you see this more as a buyer's market?
Speaker 2 (05:46):
Now, it's definitely a buyer's market. Just from a negotiation standpoint.
The buyers are you know, hitting low with prices. They're
picking on the houses that have been on the market
a long time. And even if you just did a
price reduction, they're you know, they're still hitting you for
for even more and they can. And it's the first
(06:07):
time in thirteen years. That's because we've we've had bidding wars,
you know, for for such a long time.
Speaker 3 (06:14):
Yeah, So, I mean it's I think we're seeing that.
Speaker 4 (06:17):
I noticed that in the month of really in the
month of April, and I don't want to say it
was tied to Terrace, but I think it's more just
the worry that people have when the headlines of every
you know, newspaper is is hitting you with you know,
stock market drops by this month by this much.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
You know, you know, stock market rallies by this much.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
It's just, you know, when you have so much volatility,
I think, you know, we as consumers just kind of
freeze up. And I think that is why we're seeing
this abrupt you know where I think a lot of
buyers just said, hey, I'm gonna I'm going to hold
off and not do anything for a little while and
see what happens. Right. And you know, even though the
(07:00):
stock market ended the month of April, you know exactly
where it started the month of April, so all of
the the the the volatility we saw throughout the month
all went away. I still think it leaves people with
kind of like you know, you know, shell shock.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
A little bit. They're like, I'm just gonna pause here.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
And that's why you're seeing more inventory rise because I
personally saw the number of leads people. You know, this
is not people in contract closing, but people that were
planning on buying in June July.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
You know that far out. That's what the leak ount
and those numbers really slowed down in the month of April.
Speaker 4 (07:37):
And I think it was just due to the you
know that the I think people were just kind of like,
you know, I guess shells, you know, kind of beating
up a bit, so they just put a pause on
their their buying plans.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Now, those terrorists are affecting a lot of things. I mean,
I think the the Vatican dodged a bullet because they
got a made in America pope and they don't.
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Yeah, right, So.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Some all the pope memes flying around there, there's one
that's got a kind of a Ditkaike thing dub Hope,
you know, like the old Saturday Night Live skit. But anyway,
the twenty one hundred and seventeen new homes came on
the market and twelve hundred and fifty nine went off.
And then this is interesting. In January, our median price
(08:25):
was three sixty five, and when you compared it to
January a year ago, it was three fifty five. So
in January the price was ten thousand higher than it
was the previous year. In February our price was three seventy,
so went up five thousand. The previous year it went
up five thousand. It's still ten thousand higher, so three
seventy versus three sixty. In March it actually equaled out
(08:48):
where both years are three sixty five, and now we
are at three sixty eight. Last year, at this time,
the median home price was three seventy four, so we're
actually now six thousand dollars behind where we were last year.
And you know, we've been talking about this for a
while that all of the increase in prices that happened
(09:08):
during COVID, they have not been absorbed by the market yet,
and we're going to see this not a free fall
like two thousand and eight, but there's a slide going
on that just you know, at best homes are going sideways,
and most homes, if you look at your zilo's estimate history,
there's a ten year history. Go search your home on Zillo,
(09:29):
scroll down until you see a little link that says
estimate history, and you'll see a graph for the last
ten years based on your home square feet and what
that neighborhood median home price is. They'll they'll show you
what the value of your property is. And most people
are seeing a slide just to absorb that one hundred
thousand plus that every house in America went up during COVID.
Speaker 4 (09:49):
Now, you know, and Bob, I think it's there are
all these forecasts coming out from the Zillo and Red
Fins of and even case Shiller, right, you know, which
is kind of the benchmark for values, and that you know,
we're going to see slower growth throughout the end of
the year.
Speaker 3 (10:06):
You know, appreciation will be will be slower.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
You know, I haven't seen anything really where where I'm
not seeing signs that, you know, houses are going to
decrease in value. If it is, it would be a
very small percentage. But it's really just things are going
to be kind of even for throughout the end of
the year.
Speaker 3 (10:28):
And now what could.
Speaker 4 (10:30):
Change all that lower interest rates, brakes drop, then things
will change on.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
A dime and and Jerry, I definitely think that. But
just think if you're a VA buyer and if you're
in the military and you get moved every three years,
and you buy a home now with zero percent down,
and the market is not only not gaining anything, it's
either going flattered down slightly. What does that do to
you when you go to sell your home three years
from now. Yeah, now, down payment matters.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Down payment matters, no, for sure, But if rates do
come down, I think buyers will jump in the market.
And so you know, the question is when. And rates
are still sitting right below you know, seven percent, they're
just not moving much and they seem and I don't
think that's going to change in the next thirty sixty
ninety days. Now they keep the forecast for the end
(11:23):
of the year is that rates will be closer to
six percent. I don't know what's going to propel rates
to move lower between you know what's going to be
the catalyst to move rates lower. But the big houses,
everyone from National Association, Real Orners, Mortgage Bankers Association, Chase, Wells, Fargo,
be of A, you know, the big names, they're all
predicting mortgage rates be close to six percent by the
(11:45):
end of the year, so something is going to be
the catalyst to move rates lower.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Well, that would be nice. I mean, it would really
help affordability. And that's really what's causing everybody to kind
of slam on the brakes, is you know, fear of
the unknown.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Yeah, definitely a lot of an uncertainty out there in
the market, whether it's stock market, real estate market, just
there's a good bit of fear out there that I
think are holding a lot of people back from taking
any kind of action.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
And hey, before we hit the break, Andy, don't forget
to go out to notecarriy dot com to see our
podcast for the Home Solutions Show notecarrie dot com.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
And with that, we are coming up on a break.
This is Andy Keel with the Home Solutions Show and
we will be right back. Good morning, and welcome back
to the Home Solutions Show. This is your host, Andy
Keel with Epic Realty and I can be reached at
five two zero five three nine nine five nine one,
(12:46):
and I'm joined again by Jerry Sunt with Cross Country
Mortgage and Bob Zachmeyer with exp Realty. Guys, want to
share your numbers for the audience, Go ahead, Jerry.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Five two zero three zero nine seven six.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
And Jerry has been my go to linder for more
than thirteen years now, and I just can't say enough
good things about about him. So my number, Bob Zachmeyer,
you can reach me five to zero three one four sold.
And Andy, you wanted to talk about the statement I
made that said we're pretty much in a buyer's market,
(13:24):
and let's discuss that further.
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Yeah, I don't want to maybe quite go so far
as to say I have a dissenting opinion, but I
don't know if I wholly agree with that. And I
wanted to talk about that a little bit. And specifically
what I'm referring to is, again we can't share this
lovely slide with the listening audience. But the data we're
looking at has two and seventeen new listings, which is
(13:50):
up three hundred and twelve from last year. We're definitely
getting some more inventory. We definitely are seeing buyers with
a lot more negotiating power. But looking at this and
it's still three point seven to nine months supply of inventory,
and I go back to the stance of a neutral
market is considered between five and seven months supply and
(14:13):
from that definition, we're not even into a neutral territory.
But I still feel, like you say, Bob, I feel
the softness in the market. So I don't know, do
we have a new norm with with months supply of
inventory or That's why I'm dissenting a little bit with
the whole Are we are in a buyer's marketer? I
don't think we're a seller's market, but I would say
more of a neutral.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
It's kind of interesting, you know, of all the different
price points the MLS segments one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten,
there's eleven different price point segments, and you know, I
read off how many homes were available on each price point,
how many sold at each price point. But what's interesting
is the days on market. The lowest days on market
(14:56):
were homes that sold between six hundred and seven hundred thousand.
Those homes sold in seventeen days. When you look at
houses under two hundred, which you would think would be
by far the most in demand houses, the most affordable homes,
the days on market was twenty eight instead of seventeen.
And when you look at homes two hundred to three hundred,
(15:17):
the days on market's thirty two, and the homes at
six hundred to seven hundred and only at seventeen days
on market, and then there's really a kind of a
dead spot between eight hundred and a million. Those homes
took forty two days on market to sell, which is
twice as long as the five to six hundred thousand ons.
But then when you jump over a million, it drops
back down to twenty eight days on market, and when
(15:38):
you go over one point four million, it's twenty one
days on market. So you know, it's really kind of
interesting how the very expensive houses don't they're not affected
by the economy. Those people aren't hit by inflation. They
have wealth that they've generated over their lifetimes, and you know,
inflation isn't isn't effect and you know those that didn't
(16:03):
plan so well and they're depending on their job and
the economy and now everything in your life. Just you know,
your dollar in the last four years went from a
dollar to eighty cents. It's basically lost twenty percent of
its buying power. You know, that affects people that are
depending on that paycheck from their earned income, but people
that have investments that are funding everything now granted, retired
(16:25):
people don't have earned income, they have investment income, and
most of them are reeling because of the cost of
everything in their life going up. So I mean, it's
definitely a tale of two cities. But as I've said
many times the last several years, I've seen more proof
of funds for home purchases and more cash purchases, and
i've ever seen the proof of funds almost always come
(16:48):
from Morgan Stanley or another stock brokerage house.
Speaker 1 (16:53):
Yeah, that's pretty interesting, it seems like, and I agree,
it really does feel like a tale of two markets
here where we talked about this many times in the
last year and a half or so, where up until
about six months ago we had a really strong over
a million dollar market. It did slow down, but now
looks like it's picking back up again. So I find
(17:16):
that rather interesting. And then, as you pointed out, Bob,
the under two hundred thousand market is the slowest to move,
and of course we realized that's either properties that are
way out in the boonies or need a lot of
work so that in many cases aren't financible. So exactly
surprised me.
Speaker 2 (17:34):
So, Jerry, what does the bank have to say about
rural properties like our way out in Douglas, or not
even Douglas, like Saint David or place like that as.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
Far as well.
Speaker 4 (17:44):
I mean, you know a lot of homes in those
areas are financed with rural housing loans or USDA and
it's some exciting.
Speaker 3 (17:52):
News has happened in that front as of late.
Speaker 4 (17:55):
And what that is is that you know, a good
a large percentage of home homes in rural areas around
the state of Arizona are manufactured homes. USCA would not
allow for a resale of a manufactured home and so
that you know, left people having to go faha and
put money down and so forth.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Now that has changed.
Speaker 4 (18:19):
The USDA just changed their guidelines last week and are
allowing for the financing one hundred percent of the value
of the home for resale of manufactured homes.
Speaker 2 (18:31):
That's a huge, a huge benefit.
Speaker 3 (18:33):
So it is a huge benefit.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
So I think you're going to see, you know, that
will be very valuable moving forward for for even you know, areas, all.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
The rural areas right around Tucson.
Speaker 4 (18:46):
You know, I get calls from you know, weekly from
buyers who want to use the USDA program on a
manufactured home and it's like, well, you can't.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
Do it, but now you can no.
Speaker 4 (18:58):
Now the key is and I don't have the the
exact you know, data in front of me, but the
age of the manufactured home is very specific. It cannot
be you know, we go back to seventy six for
VA FHA and conventional and USDA is going to be
like only twenty years. So the manufactured home cannot be
older than I know there's some formula, but I want
(19:20):
to say it's like somewhere.
Speaker 3 (19:21):
In the nineties. But I'll get that data for you
on the next.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
Break, Okay, And then Jerry, what is the limit to
how many times that manufactured home has been relocated?
Speaker 4 (19:31):
I mean that's only once. You can only read you know,
it has to be set in place once except for VA.
VA has an exception for that. And it's loud to
be that manufactured home can be moved a few times.
Speaker 2 (19:43):
Because sometimes you know people, you know, when I was
filling a mobile home park, I was buying up older
manufactured homes and having a moved into my mobile home
park back in twenty twelve, and you know, the people
that were trying to buy them and move them, they
couldn't sell them because the people that wanted to get
a loan couldn't get a loan on them because they'd
(20:05):
been moved more than once.
Speaker 4 (20:06):
Now, the only way you can buy a manufactured home
that has been moved more than once is going.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
DA or private, probably private, of course for those that
aren't on veterans, I mean be a loan. It has
the lowest loan rates, it has the no loan insurance.
That's what you get for your service to the company.
The government picks up the loan insurance premium the mortgage
insurance premium. So you know that is by far, if
(20:33):
you're a veteran, you use it. I mean, that's that's
the best loan out there, lowest down payment, highest return
on investment. However, if you're not a veteran, then what's
the best option. Well, on these rural properties us DA
loans you can actually get some of your closing costs too.
If I'm not mistaken, DR correct.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
It can be financed.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
Yeah, one hundred and two percent. They'll give you of
the property purchase price. And that's the department. You know,
the people that put the stamp on your state. The
US Department of Agriculture is giving loans for one hundred
and two percent of the purchase price. That seems like
they're kind of operating out of their lane, don't you think.
But it is for.
Speaker 3 (21:13):
Rural property for years.
Speaker 2 (21:15):
Yeah, yeah, and it was intended, you know, to help farmers.
But when you when you look at it, almost every
property in Salrita and up in Gladden Farms and all
that that's all still zoned by the USDA is rural property,
even though it's a huge subdivision up in Gladden Farms
and down in Salrita.
Speaker 3 (21:32):
So correct.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
So anyway, what's the availability look like? If you are
looking right now to buy a single family home, there
are three thousand, two hundred and ninety eight homes on
the market. If you're looking for a town home three
hundred and thirty four and a condo two hundred and
fifty nine, and manufactured homes one hundred and ninety seven.
So you know that's we're closing in on five thousand.
(21:58):
We haven't seen a five one thousand inventory since I
have to look back. I mean, obviously during the Great
Recession we got almost to eleven thousand, but it's been
that long, I mean since like twenty twelve, So we're,
you know, the highest inventory in twelve years right now
of homes on the market for sale.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
Yeah, it'd be interesting to look at that statistic, but
I want to say it is like right around the
twenty sixteen sticks in my mind and I don't know why,
but that shows you that, you know how long it
is taken to get back to that inventory level. And
you know, the goodness is buyers have a lot to
choose from.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Yep, and more every day because we are gaining inventory.
Speaker 1 (22:42):
Yeah, there's definitely more selection out there. It seems like
there's definitely some softening up. Even like one of the articles,
I don't have it up on my screen here, but
read something recently where Zillo is even predicting a decline
in the market prices. And I don't remember, as long
as I've been watching Zillo them ever doing that before.
Speaker 4 (23:03):
Yeah, but I refer to that in the first segment, Andy,
and I think it's that the decline is very very
if it's if it's a decline, it's less than one percent,
it's like almost break even a redfin was right about
like one percent appreciation.
Speaker 3 (23:19):
They're all kind of just saying it's going to be
flat for the remainder of the year.
Speaker 1 (23:23):
Agreed. Again, I'm not predicting any kind of gloom or
doom here either. I think Zilla was predicting down just
about a percent or thereabouts. And of course we're still
buying properties. If the numbers work, we're still buying ourselves.
So I'm not predicting any kind of major hiccup right now.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
Oh no. I mean real estate's always, you know, a
good investment. Just actually more people are afraid to buy
in a market that's down then, and this is the
best time to buy because you can negotiate. I mean,
this is the best buying opportunity we've had in over
thirteen years. And you know when if you look at
the inventory that you had available. Just at the end
of the month of April in twenty twenty two, there
(24:06):
were thirteen hundred and ninety homes on the market for sale.
In twenty three, that number from thirteen ninety jumped up
to sixteen eighty four, and then it doubled in twenty
twenty four to thirty two ninety four. And now we
are at four thousand, seven hundred and seventy one home.
So we went from thirteen ninety to forty seven seventy
one in three years. That's triple the number of homes
(24:28):
for sale, and the number of buyers in the market
right now is down by forty percent. So don't forget
to go to notecarriy dot com to catch our podcast
going forward on this program.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Yeah, and we are coming up on a break. This
is Andy Keel with the Home Solutions Show and we
will be right back. Good morning, and welcome back to
the Home Solutions Show. This is your host, Andy Keel
with Epic Realty and I can be reached at five
two zero five three nine nine five nine one and
again joined by Bob Zachmeyer and Jerry Sunt. Jerry, if
(25:05):
you'd be so kind as to expand on what the
what the interest rate market and what the mortgage market
has been doing in this last week and where we stand.
Speaker 3 (25:17):
It's about as boring as it can be. It's flat,
it is. Rates just have not moved much.
Speaker 4 (25:24):
You know, we expected mortgage rates to improve, but then
on Thursday, you know, when the announcement that the US
and the UK have come to a tariffs agreement, there
was a sell off in the bond market which made
mortgage rates move higher. And you know, everyone's kind of
still scratching their head why and was it? You know,
(25:46):
there was also a bond auction that same day and
was at the catalyst, but they moved slightly higher. But
these are all very, very mighty movements. But rates are
sitting right below seven percent. They're you know, six point
eight seven five to six point nine to five, you
know it. This is I just don't seem much changing
(26:07):
in the next few months, given all the unknowns that
are out there, until you get you know, what will
what will make mortgage rates drop, unemployment rate really is
going to have to move higher, or the economy is
really going to have to soften. And I don't see
the UH, you know, the economy softening anytime soon.
Speaker 3 (26:28):
It's very resilient.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
And just last Friday, the jobs report that came out
was stronger than expected. There's all this doom and gloom
in the UH, in the press about the the the
economy softening, and I think it is, but the underpinning
economy is still very vibrant and strong. So I just
don't know what the catalyst is to move rates to
(26:51):
six percent. But I'm still hopeful, you know, very hopeful
that rates will move to that direction. Now, one thing
you will see, Andy, is fifteen year fixed mortgage is.
I had a buyer this week putting twenty percent down
to a fifteen year fixed mortgage, paid one discount point,
and his rate was five point five percent on a
(27:11):
fifteen year. Wowow, I have not you know, I have
not been able to say five point five in a
few years. Right then, so the spread, you know, fifteen
year fixed mortgages are really attractive. If the borrower wasn't
paying a discount point, the rate was five point eight
seven five. So you know that fifteen year fixed mortgage
(27:34):
is now. Yes, I know it's more expensive, and with
prices the way they've moved higher, it's harder for a
family to pay that fifteen year fixed mortgage rate or payment.
But if you can and it's comfortable within your budget,
that fifteen year fix is a great option.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Wow.
Speaker 1 (27:52):
Yeah, I have a quick question on that though. That
really only applies towards owner occupied properties though, correct, Jerry, Because.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
The and we looked at there's no benefit.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
Yeah. Last time we looked at a fifteen year and
an investment, it was about the same as the thirty
and we were kind of going, well, that's not worth.
Speaker 3 (28:08):
It, exactly, it is not worth it.
Speaker 1 (28:11):
One of the other things I noticed last week more
appropriate didn't notice last week with the the lack of
announcement of an interest rate cut, with just leaving things alone.
The market just shrugged that off like it was nothing.
And I mean usually when we have a FED announcement,
the market a whip saw even if they do nothing,
and it kind of just shrugged it off like yep,
(28:33):
we expected it.
Speaker 4 (28:35):
Yeah it is, you know, everyone, it seems like all
the other big you know, major countries are lowering their
interest rates, you know, to absorb for or to prepare
for a softening economy due to tariffs, you know, Bank
of England, the UK, you know, or to me, the
euro You're starting to see that everyone's kind of lowering
(28:59):
their bar cost.
Speaker 3 (29:02):
Australia did it as well.
Speaker 4 (29:03):
This week, but the US is holding steady, and I
think it's just because the Federal Reserve sees the economy
is as strong and that they have time to wait
this out.
Speaker 3 (29:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:14):
I think that's pretty much J. Powell's approach is. I
think the comment I remember reading earlier last week was
that the economy is not as bad as we think.
Speaker 2 (29:29):
Well, this tariff thing. I mean, everybody's scared of what
it's going to do to short term prices. But I
mean if it swings where our exports to other countries
are in higher demand because now they're priced appropriately and
they're in a fair market to compete, that'll create a
ton of jobs over here. And then the amount of
money that they collect in tariffs, First of all, you know,
(29:52):
part of it will go to pay down the deficit
that got run up over the last twenty years and
mainly in the last four years. And then the of it.
You know, they're talking about cutting out income tax for
anybody that makes under two hundred thousand dollars a year.
That would be a huge godsend. And you know, I
love the idea of no tax on overtime because if
(30:12):
you are, you know, there's so many people sitting around
collecting unemployment and here's the people that are not only
working a full time job but going out and doing
the extra and whatever they have to do to feed
their family and keep all the bills on the table.
And then the more you make, the more the higher
tax rate you get into. So I love the idea
that if you're going to go over and above that
that's just your money and not the government's money because
(30:34):
they didn't do anything for it.
Speaker 3 (30:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
Yeah, I really like that idea with the overtime lack
of tax on the overtime.
Speaker 4 (30:43):
I think, you know, it's I think people a lot
of I get a lot of questions, now, how does
tariffs affect real estate? And I don't think it really.
I mean it does indirectly, right for new home sales.
It could affect new home sales because the price of
materials will be higher. Which will you know, whether the
(31:06):
builder is going to you know, absorb that cost or
whether they're going to pass it on to the consumers
Yet to be determined. But does that mean new home
sales are going to be you know, on average ten
thousand dollars home more expensive?
Speaker 3 (31:20):
Who knows? I think it really.
Speaker 4 (31:22):
When it comes to resales, it's all about well, could
it affect mortgage rates? Yes, if the economy softens, then
mortgage rates will come down. But I think the the
indirect correlation is that people, you know, everyone's kind of worried.
People are just worried and concerned about what the future brings.
(31:43):
And when they're people are worried or have unknowns. They
just don't buy, They don't consume, they don't buy cars,
they don't buy homes, They just kind of you need
that confidence to be able to make a big purchase.
And that's what we need to get back. And hopefully,
you know, is that we get through this TEARFF situation
(32:03):
in the short term I in June, and that people's
confidence will come roaring back.
Speaker 2 (32:10):
And I think a lot of this is going to
be posturing. It'll end up. You know that everybody thinks
that the worst in the stock market always you know,
buy on the rumor sell on the news. Well, you know,
all the people are starting to do the calculations like, hey,
what if if the US market got cut off to
our products? What would that do to our to our country?
And and they're all realizing this is a huge thing
(32:31):
that we can't afford to happen. And I think they're
all going to come crawling back. And I think it's
genius what's happening right now, And it should have happened,
you know, decades ago, a long time ago.
Speaker 1 (32:42):
I don't agree.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Hey, I wanted to share if for those of you
looking or knowing, if somebody that has is looking for
a first time home. This is a beautiful, cute as
a button little house with a brand new air conditioner.
Last year and the couple got married and the husband's
house was bigger than the wife. So the wife is
selling hercute little house. It's at forty five seventy one
(33:05):
East Sixth Street in Tucson. That's right near Poet's Corner
and Poet Square, right in the middle of the heart
of Tucson, between Broadway and Speedway, near Albernon. Beautiful little neighborhood.
Two hundred and fifty five thousand, two bedroom, one bath,
eight hundred and forty square foot home with a covered carport.
(33:27):
I don't think you're going to find anything. I mean
the all brand new appliances, washerton, dryer, come along, glass
tile backsplash, granite countertops. I mean, it's really done up nicely.
And it wasn't done as a flip. It was done
by actually the seller's parents, our college cog. You know,
we went to college together in North Dakota back in
(33:50):
nineteen seventy nine and eighty together. And now their daughter
is actually buying my house and I sold there's a
few years ago. And Andy, you actually bought the house
from the parents, and they carried the loan for you,
and they're getting paid every month on that loan.
Speaker 1 (34:04):
Yep, and we still have the house.
Speaker 2 (34:06):
Yeah, And this is the real estate and the gift
that keeps on giving. So now I'm finding that with
a lot of my clients. I mean, they started off
investing when they were younger, and now their kids are
all graduating college and buying homes and guess where they
send them right back to me. So it's kind of
a full circle. I love it. I love helping people
with their finances. But check it out. It's really good,
(34:28):
cute little house and it should be pretty much maintenance
free for a very long time. Four or five seven
to one East Sixth Street in Tucson.
Speaker 1 (34:36):
Thanks, And we're coming up towards the end of the segment.
I have just a little bit of time left here.
So I wanted to share just kind of a well
my own version of a stupid criminal story that I
thought was kind of entertaining. We had bought a manufactured
home and it was on a one acre parcel, and
(34:58):
I'll just say p mccounty and the reason we purchased
this is our business partner's mom needed a home base,
so she happily lived there for a number of years,
and unfortunately she had to go into assisted living. So
we ended up taking the property back, cleaning it up
(35:19):
a little bit, and getting it ready to put on
the market. Well, we got a call out of the
blue from the Pima County Sheriff's Department not long ago saying, hey,
somebody might want to come over here. We found your
air conditioner. Wait what So it turns out that one
of the neighbors had a domestic violence charge called in
(35:42):
against them, and when the sheriff went to investigate that,
they literally saw our air conditioner dragged from our house
over to the neighbor's house, completely disassembled, like they are
trying to do something with it.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
Oh wow.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
And not only did they get in trouble. I don't
know if an arrest was made, but there was a
police but at any rate, they destroyed our air conditioner
like they were trying to do something with it and
resell it or what have you. And we ended up
putting an insurance claimant on that and getting a whole
new air conditioning out of it because they were too
stupid to even cover up the tracks.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
So had they drained all the free on on them
and just let it out into the air.
Speaker 1 (36:19):
I think so, because what we found was just a
disassembled pile of pile of parts. It was like somebody
was dealing with an addiction issue and we're trying to
tinker with it or do something. I have no idea
what their thinking process was, but yeah, they still our
air conditioner and luckily insurance covered that one. So I
thought that was kind of a kick. So it worked out. Okay,
(36:41):
we got a brand new air conditioning unit out of
the deal. So anyway, I thought i'd share that kind
of fun story along the lines that we just can't
make this stuff up. And with that, we are coming
up on a break. This is Andy Keel with Epic
Realty and we'll be right back. Hi, and welcome back
to the Home Solution Show. This is your host, Andy
(37:01):
Keel with Epic Realty, and I'm joined again by Bob
zach Meyer and Jerry Sunt. We announced earlier about our
upcoming podcast and transition, but Bob, would you like to
talk to that about that point one more time please,
because it's kind of a big transition for all of us.
Speaker 2 (37:18):
Sure, So we are basically sliding from the panst. I'm
sure they will replace us with other people in the profession.
They're in the business of selling airtime. We've been on
the air now for thirteen years and I'm sixty five
years old, and I'm trying to slow down. And quite honestly,
(37:38):
the cost of the radio station was by far the
biggest bill that I have in my household. And you know,
the whole idea is when you retire, you're supposed to
slow down. And I mean, I'll never not do anything,
but I just I love I love doing the show.
I love you, you know you guys. I mean the
reason we call it Home Solutions. There's not much that
(38:01):
we can't handle. I mean, most people mainstream are going
to go to Jerry Sunt They're going to get a loan.
He's got the lowest fees around. He's been around the block.
He's always like ranked in the top twenty or thirty
in the nation. So that experience, but then Andy and
I feel the gaps where I do private financing with
people that can't get a loan. And what's kind of
(38:22):
ironic right now is most real estate agents in this
country cannot get a home loan right now because they
aren't selling enough property to justify the payment. And so
here's the person showing you houses that couldn't even buy
one themselves. And you know, we have private financing for
a lot of people that don't have W two income.
They're self employed business owners, they have the strong work ethic,
(38:46):
they have a tremendous amount of money to put down
because they don't work forty hour weeks, they worn't work
eighty or one hundred hour weeks, and those are the
people the banks have excluded. So if you have someone
that can't qualify at the bank because they don't have
two years on their because they don't have a W
two and they work a long job and they only
get paid every every couple of months in spurts, the
(39:07):
banks don't like that and they're not going to give
a loan. So we cover that. But the minimum down
payment that I require is fifteen percent, and that is
a lot of money. When your average home price in
Tucson is forty dollars four hundred thousand dollars, fifteen percent
of four hundred thousand is sixty thousand. That's a tremendous
amount of money to come up with, so not everybody
(39:28):
has that. Actually very few people have that, and that's
where Andy comes in. Andy has a lease to own
or a lease option program that basically allows people to
get a house lockdown treated as their own for ten years.
They have ten years to actually pull the trigger and
exercise the option. During that time, Andy can't sell that
(39:50):
house to anybody else. It's your home. And you know,
if the market goes down, it's an option. Option is
the right, but not the obligations. So you have the
option of buying it. So obviously, if the house went
up fifty thousand dollars, you would say, yeah, let's buy it,
and if it went down, you'd say walk away. And Andy,
what is your the fee that you charge for the option.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
We do a forty nine hundred dollars option. It's a
non refundable option fee. But that basically locks them into
the property for the next ten years. As you said,
we can't force them out. It's their home. As long
as they're making the payments and keeping the property up.
There's nothing we can do to boot them, nor would
we ever want to. So it gives them a lot
(40:36):
of protection and we've got a lot of our residents
that come to us because they were perfectly happy where
they were at for the last eight ten, twelve, fifteen.
We just had one that was in their house for
twenty five years as a renter and the landlord just
sold it out from under them, so it came to
us because they never want that to happen to them again.
And we had another one very recently that was in
(40:57):
their home for a very long time and there was
an electrical short in the garage and burnt the whole
house down, so they needed something pretty quickly. So it's
a great program for someone who isn't ready to buy,
but either would like to buy or just would like
the peace of mind to not have to worry about
their landlord giving him a boot at some point in
the future.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
Yep. So I mean, there you go. There's forty nine
hundred bucks and then of course one month's security deposit
because it is a rental agreement and an option, so
you have the right to buy the house and not
the obligation. And it's just I've invested with Andy on
these deals since eighteen Andy.
Speaker 1 (41:36):
I believe so yes, so.
Speaker 2 (41:39):
You know it works, and it's so we have an
avenue for everybody to get in. So the bottom line
is we're not going to be on KNST after May
of this year. So if you go to notecarrie dot
com and ote c A R R Y dot com,
that is my coaching website. But I have the in
(42:00):
a web site to host the program and there's a
banner on it right now, there's no content out there yet,
but there's a banner out there. It's coming soon Home
Solutions Radio shows. So we're going to be out there
on the podcast and we can start taking the recordings
from these last few episodes and put out there as well.
And from that point forward, you can listen in your car,
(42:23):
you can listen on Spotify, Apple, Google Play, I mean,
whatever you like to listen to, podcasts will be out
there and instead of having to be glued to the
radio every Sunday at ten o'clock in the morning. So
again notecarrie dot com and Jerry and Andy and I
will will be out there, and I think there's a
lot of good content and we'll just keep going what
(42:45):
we're doing without the five thousand plus dollars a month cost.
Speaker 1 (42:51):
So I want to do elaborate on something you mentioned, Bob,
we really like hearing about these one off in weird situations.
Between the three of us, we can almost certainly figure
out a solution. And it brought up a situation from
one of the radio show listeners a few years ago.
The two brothers, You remember that one. I'm referring to Bob,
(43:13):
that the two brothers that did not get along and
Mom was in some kind of like memory care facility.
I believe there was two properties. The property that mom
lived in before she had to go into the assisted
living and then there was a rental property that the
family had owned for some time. The two brothers just
(43:35):
for whatever reason, just could not get along.
Speaker 2 (43:38):
Well, the scoundrel and one was a saint. Well, and
the one that was the scoundrel basically emptied the mom's
checking account and got heard to deed the property over
to his half of the property over to him and
then refused to let the other brother get his half
out of it. And that's where the impass came. And
(43:58):
I told him this was a you know, someone that
listens to the radio program called me and I said,
you know what, this is beyond my scope. I can't
list a home that you don't have the right to
sell well, Andy, and so Andy, Yeah, keep going. That
was a great story.
Speaker 1 (44:12):
Yeah, that was a lot of fun. So you know, basically,
who's who's crazy enough to buy half of two houses?
Because that's that's actually what we were we were doing
because one one brother owned and the titling was technically
tenants in common, so they legitimately each owned half of
the house. Going into this, we knew exactly what we
(44:34):
were dealing with because we know how to handle these situations.
It's referred to as a partition sale when you have
multiple owners and one either wants to sell and the
other one doesn't, or there's some conflict there. So we
bought half of these two properties from the brother that's
the radio show listener, and I knew full well that
(44:58):
I wasn't going to do anything until we we finish
the transaction. Then I'd have to go after the other
brother and potentially sue him for a partition sale to
basically force the sale of the house. It turned out
that once I had the title issue worked out, I
called the other brother and he was more than happy
to sell the house because he's making some money on it.
Speaker 2 (45:19):
And it was as long as his brother wasn't getting it.
He was fine with selling it. So you and I
actually have a friend in Texas. That's all he does
is he looks for estate sales where there's family members
that oftentimes one member of the family stays in the
house and takes care of mom and dad, and when
they die, they don't want to leave. They've been living
for free all this time and they don't want to leave,
(45:40):
and the other siblings want to sell the home and
get their inheritance, and this person doesn't want to leave.
So my friend goes in and buys the other siblings out,
and he knocks on the door and gets the most
derelict person he can to become a renter and say like, hey,
this is your new roommate. They're going to live in
my half of the house. And it's funny situation. But
(46:01):
you know, there's some weird stuff and I'm between us all.
I mean, we've seen almost everything, but there's always something new.
Every year, there's something that you never imagine could happen.
So but I don't think you're going to find a
better group of problem solvers anywhere. So again, go to
Wwwnoecarrie dot com. And that's where you can find future
(46:22):
episodes of our show, and after next week's show, we
will not be on KNST any longer. It's sad thirteen years,
but it's a time. It's time to move to a
new venue, and it's it's actually more accessible for our clients.
So real quick, if you want to know how, you know.
The most important statistic in real estate is the absorption rate.
(46:47):
And this goes back to Andy's point, are we in
a seller's market or not? Across the board, the absorption
rate in Tucson last month was twenty six point three percent,
So that means of all the homes that were listed
for sale, six percent sold. That would say it's actually
a neutral market, not a buyer's market. And when you
break it down by single family homes, it's twenty six.
(47:09):
When you look at town homes, it's thirty one percent
were sold lower price usually condos twenty six percent, manufactured
homes twenty six, mobile homes older than nineteen seventy six
seventeen percent. And then when you look at it by
price point, the lowest absorption rate was the one point
four million and above and that's so there's a twelve
(47:31):
point nine percent absorption rate there twelve point nine percent
of the properties were sold. The next lowest is between
seven and eight hundred thousand, and that was a nineteen
point nine percent absorption rate. But the two to three
hundred thousand last month had a thirty eight percent absorption
rate that was by far the highest of any price
point of any home or condo or town home or
(47:56):
manufactured home in Tucson. So any parting thoughts you.
Speaker 1 (47:59):
Guys, Well, I think that goes back to what you
always say, Bob, is when you think of real estate
like a pyramid with the starter home, the single family homes,
and that in that like two to three hundred price
ranges the base of the pyramid, they always will have
the highest demand. People will move up to them and
bad times move down to them, or the opposite of that,
move up to them and bad good. Yeah, move up
(48:22):
to them in good times and scale down to those
in bad times. And there's always a lot of demand
for those the entry level type homes.
Speaker 2 (48:30):
So we're coming up to the close. Don't forget to
go to notecarry dot com and book Market.
Speaker 1 (48:36):
And thanks for sharing your Sunday with us again. This
is Andy Keel with Epic Realty and thanks for joining
us on the Home Solution Show.
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