Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Good morning, and welcome to the Home Solutions Show. This
is your host Andy Keel with Epic Realty, and I'm
joined today by Bob zach Meyer and Jerry Sunt And
it's a kind of bittersweet to do this show today.
This is going to be our final show on KNST
after thirteen years of this show, especially with Bob and
(00:24):
Jerry being on the show all these years, we just
wanted to do a formal sendoff. So good morning guys.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
Good morning morning Annie.
Speaker 1 (00:34):
A lot of things happening. Let's just start with kind
of a market update with what's going on out there.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Go ahead, Bob, you can start with the real estate
side of things.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Well, actually, I thought it would be interesting, since this
is our final show, to look back at when we
started this show and see how we compare. So back
in January of twenty twelve, we had four nine hundred
and eleven homes sale in Tucson, and right now we are,
as of the April numbers, four thousand, seven hundred and
(01:07):
seventy one, So we're one hundred and forty houses different
than we were back in twenty eleven and the end
of twenty eleven, started twenty twelve, what's interesting though, is
the sales. The number of sales were twelve hundred and
seventy six back then, and keep in mind we were
just recovering from the Great Recession and prior in that
(01:31):
prior January, we had over five thousand homes listed for
sale and the inventory had just started to drop down
to forty nine to eleven. But we sold twelve hundred
and seventy six homes during the month of May or April.
This April number may report during the month of April
and twenty twelve, and last month in Tucson, we sold
(01:53):
twelve hundred and thirty six homes, so forty fewer homes
than we did in twenty twelve. That is very indicative
of the market. But one thing that is very, very different.
The median sale price back when we started this show
was one hundred and seventeen thousand dollars. Wow.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Wow, now that is significant.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Yeah, we're over four hundred now that three eighty six.
I think it dropped a little bit, but it's still like,
oh my gosh, what to change that is. But the
numbers are roughly the same. The inventory numbers, the number
of homes being sold each month is just the price
is three times more, almost four times more.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
Yeah, that's a pretty significant number.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
But it's still a very slow market. There are homes
that sell on the first day, and there's homes out
there that have been out there more than a year.
And you know, it just really a hit and miss
kind of a thing. If you bring it out too high,
nobody will show it. You can't sell a house if
nobody's going to go inside. So you got to have
your price where it's out from the rest. And then
(03:02):
you know, there's a very significant shift in the number
of buyers from even a couple of years ago. Forty
percent fewer sales than we had a couple of years ago,
and five hundred percent more inventory. That's the big thing
is people have a lot more to choose from than
they did before. So you know, price it right, and
(03:22):
you know, people still need a place to live. It's
it's it will sell. It's the best time to be
a buyer that we've seen since about twenty eleven, about
the time we started this show. And you know, back then,
the median overall, as I said, was when seventeen single
family homes back then were one forty seven mobile homes
(03:44):
fifty four thousand manufactured, forty nine thousand less than mobile homes. Wow,
and condos were sixty three thousand, five hundred dollars, and
town homes on the median were one hundred and eighteen
thousand dollars. So what a change thirteen years did on
the market if you would have known what real estate
(04:04):
was going to do? When you think about it, Jerry,
of all the loans you're doing now, Jerry, what what
percent down would you say is the average? Oh?
Speaker 3 (04:14):
I mean, I don't think that's changed much. It's probably
five percent down. Most people are putting money down a
little bit, so I would say five percent to ten percent.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
So if you would have purchased a single family home
thirteen years ago, the median price was one forty seven five,
ten percent would be fourteen thousand and seven fifty. So
you're putting down seven thousand, three hundred and seventy five
dollars as a down payment, and then the value of
your home goes up two hundred and forty thousand on
(04:47):
your seven thousand dollars investment.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
I mean, you know, hindsight is always twenty twenty, you know.
I always tell people, Bob, and do you still feel
it is the same today as what it was, and
that you know, people always ask, but where do you
think prices are going? And I say, you know, if
you set your your expectations to three point seven percent
per year, you will not be disappointed. Is that still
(05:13):
a fair statement?
Speaker 2 (05:15):
Actually? I think with the crazy appreciation we got during
COVID and all things considered, if I apply a four
percent appreciation rate, since I've got data back to nineteen
eighty three, and if I apply a four percent rate
on that, it follows the chart. You know, it went
crazy high during the Great Recession, then crazy low afterward,
(05:38):
over corrected, and then you know during COVID it went
up and we're sliding slightly downward. But I think four
percent is a good number. And I actually see that
nationally when I go do research in other markets where
I'm going to do a presentation.
Speaker 3 (05:51):
Okay, so I'm adjusting my number to tell people four percent. Now,
that's good, But.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
Just think about that. If the appreciation is not a
straight line, it varies, it fluctuates. Right now, it could
actually be sliding a little bit, but over time, four percent,
So if you can buy something with five percent down
and yes, and it appreciates that four percent. I mean,
that's an eighty percent return on your money.
Speaker 3 (06:18):
And I think that's what people forget and I wish
that was the headline number, you know, over and over
and over again, off like this is why you own
real estate? Is this reason? Is that your investment to
get in is anywhere from five to you know, I mean, yes,
you can do zero down, but let's just say five
to twenty percent. But you're getting appreciation on the whole asset, right,
(06:45):
And so when you look at if you put five
percent down, you take roughly I'm you know, three point
seven to four percent appreciation at three hundred thousand dollars
home in five years worth three point fifty four hundred
thousand dollars home is worth four seventy five. So if
you're you know, three hundred thousand and you're putting five
percent down on that, which is fifteen thousand dollars, you're
(07:07):
getting a fifty thousand dollars. That's what that money is worth.
That's what it gets you. There's no other investment in
the world that matches.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
That, yep. And that's why you know, at that retirement
most people have nearly two thirds of all of their
net worth and home equity because of that appreciation. And
that's wasn't that they were really good savers or bought
at a market low. It's just that over time they
paid that home off with a normal payment that went
(07:38):
out as a bill every month, but part of that
money was actually coming out of one pocket, their mortgage
payment pocket, and going into their home equity pocket. So
they didn't feel it until they sell. That's when they
get the money back.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
That's right, And that is just such a powerful statement. Interesting. Well,
you know, and I'm trying to think, you know, going
back to what were mortgage rates when we started the show, Bob,
I'm not as as diligent as you are when it
comes to doing research, but I want to say, you know,
interest rates back in two thousand, if we go look
like twenty twelve, they were right around six percent, maybe
(08:16):
maybe going right in the high fives. I think that
sounds about right.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
That sounds about right to my recollection too, Jerry. It
just I remember being around in the six percent range
back in that era.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Yeah, coming into the before the Great Recession, I mean,
home prices, our interest rates had kind of jacked up
to they were trying to slow the market down and
got up into the sevens, and then when the market
started to falter, they got into the threes. And at
the end of twenty eleven twenty twelve when we started
(08:51):
this show, I mean, you could get three three and
a quarter loans all day long.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Yep. Now, it's very, very interesting. And so really when
you look at the what's changed over the last thirteen years,
you know, interest rates, okay, they're within one percent of
where they were. You know, inventory is relatively close, absorption
is really close. The massive difference is the medium price point.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
Yep. Yep.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
That is a staggering That is a jaw dropping number.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
I know.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
And Jerry, you know, Andy had an article and we
were talking about before the show about home prices in
US new home sale.
Speaker 1 (09:37):
Yeah, I'll just touch on this a little bit. This
one an article that came out on Friday, new home
sales jump to more than three year high. Although what's
also kind of interesting in the same article media new
home prices fall two percent from a year ago to
four oh seven two hundred. This is nationally, by the way, guys,
(10:00):
a new housing inventory still near levels last seen in
two thousand and seven. So that's a little bit on
the alarming side. But so it's kind of a mixed
bag of data from what I'm seeing here. Sales of
new US single family homes surge to more than a
three year high in April, and I'm reading from this writer's.
Speaker 3 (10:20):
Arty and just so you know, the last two months
were revised downwards. So there was a surge in sales
in April, which you know, again most of the country,
that's when the spring buying season kind of starts. The
weather is getting to a place where people can, you know,
want to go out and see homes, and then you know,
the days are getting longer so they can go after
work and go see homes. You know, our spring buying
(10:43):
season starts a little earlier here, but you know, it
was a strong number. It's funny the resale numbers that
came out just yesterday. We're actually the slowest sense I
think was in nineteen ninety five, nineteen ninety six, so
two cities. It's a you know, new home sales surge
(11:04):
and resales are at the slowest pay since nineteen ninety five.
You know, go figure.
Speaker 2 (11:10):
I mean the new home the builders are actually buying
down the rate to a lower interest rate. That's what's
driving the sales of the new homes, and a homeowner
can't do that well.
Speaker 3 (11:20):
But yes they can. And that's the thing is that
we don't advertise it enough that a seller can say, look,
I'm going to pay three percent of the sales price
to buy your rate down, not pay closing costs, just
buy the rate down. And if you look on the averages,
that is going to bring rates down. I just had
(11:40):
it then. I did it for a borrower earlier today
where he wanted to pay three points. It brought down
a rate close to six percent.
Speaker 1 (11:48):
That's certainly a big help for a buyer.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
So you know, I again, sellers on the resale side
can play the same game as as as the home builds,
and that is it's just you don't see it. It's
not advertised as much. But maybe they should, right, you know,
if new sales are so strong and resales are a
bit anemic, then maybe we should be following the playbook
(12:14):
of the new home sales and sellers should start advertising
will buy your rate down, We'll buy your rate down.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
Yep. Well it's clearly working for the builders. So with that,
we are coming up on a break though. So this
is Andy Keel with the Home Solutions Show and we'll
be right back. Good morning, and welcome back to this
final edition of the Home Solutions Show. I'm joined again
by Jerry Sunt with Cross Country Mortgage and Bob Zachnmeier
(12:45):
with exp Realty. Welcome back, guys and Bob, I want
to turn this over to you to We're going to
go to a podcast format after this, and if you
could share those details with the audience so they can
continue to catch just moving forward.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
Sure, so if you like the Home Solutions Show, we
are going to retain the name Home Solutions And if
you go to my coaching website, which is a note
Kerry dot com www n O T E C A
R r y dot com and right at the very
top when you when you get to that page, there's
(13:22):
a banner that says Home Solutions Show. So going forward,
the podcast will be there. And you know, the bottom
line is we've been on the air for thirteen years.
It's it's not a cheap venue to be on it.
It's uh, you know, the k t kN SD listeners
have been awesome and we'd love to still communicate. But
(13:45):
basically this podcast is going to give you the ability
instead of being glued to your radio on Sunday, you
can listen to it on Spotify or or Apple Play
or Google Play or you know, any of the favorite
podcast sites. You'll be able to listen to our show
on your time driving around in your car, and it
doesn't have to be on a Sunday. So we're hoping
(14:05):
that we can retain a lot of our members of
our audience that have been with us for you know,
thirteen years. It's it's a crazy amount of time. But again,
that website is Notecarrie dot com, www. N O T
E C A R R Y dot com. There's a
banner at the top that says home Solutions. So going forward,
(14:27):
the shows will be archived there as of right now.
The if you want to see last week's show or whatever,
you can go to iHeart and then just search home
Solutions and you'll find it on iHeart as an archived
program as well.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
Yeah, what don't we share information for the audience as well?
And this is this is Andy Keel with Epic Realty.
I can be reached at five two zero five three
nine nine five nine one. So if you have any
questions about real estate investments or our model, which is
a least with an option to buy or rent to
own model. I'd be happy to talk to any any
(15:06):
of the listening audience, Jerry if you want to share
your information on Bob as well.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
Yeah, mine is five two zero three seven zero ninety
five seven.
Speaker 2 (15:16):
Six and I'm Bob zach Meyer five two zero three
one four sold. And the thing that you know, it
brings us all all together is one way or the other.
If there's a way to get you in the house,
we between the three of us, we can do it.
So you know, Jerry does traditional lending. He does more
than pretty much anybody in the country. I mean, you're
(15:38):
always in the top twenty or thirty or forty lenders
in the entire United States. Jerry, and a lot of
those people have huge teams, like thirty six loan officers
on their team. And you know, for yours, I think
your volume for basically you being the loan officer is
probably higher than anybody. And and but that with that
(16:00):
comes you know, that knowledge, because knowledge comes at a price.
There's scars, Yes, you come from learning. And that's the
same thing Camilla and I my wife, we got our
real estate licenses back in the year two thousand. She
had been licensed previously in nineteen eighty three, so she
goes way back in real estate. But our numbers were
one number apart every home that we sold forty six
(16:22):
hundred plus closings. Basically I did the marketing, I did
the analysis and the meetings, and then she took them
all home so and did all the paperwork and made
sure all the contract dates were made, and so it
made a really really, really good team. And we are
I just turned sixty five. I'll never quit keeping up
(16:45):
with my past clients and people I met along the way,
and many of our friends, our people that we sold
their home. But it's just, you know, I want to
travel more I do. I speak all over the country,
and that's kind of a way that we can jump
in our RV taker to to get there, speak and
then go see what the sites are around that area.
So we're really enjoying it. But I specialize in private financing,
(17:08):
so people that can't qualify for a bank loan that
Jerry has, I can give them a private financing loan.
And we just you know, I sold so many homes
and we've got a lot of clients that don't know
what to do with their money when they're retiring and
wanting to get out of a house, So we help them,
you know, put that money into a private mortgage. But
(17:28):
a lot of people don't have the minimum of fifteen
percent that we require down. So think about that. If
the average house is four hundred thousand, fifteen percent down
is sixty grand. A lot of people can't do that.
That's where it comes to Andy, and Andy basically can
put them on a lease option program where they can
still be a renter, but they have an agreement and
(17:49):
option to buy that property for ten years. And what's
your average down payment?
Speaker 1 (17:53):
Andy, We do a program with forty nine hundred dollars
down plus the first month, so tip sixty sixty five,
seven thousand dollars down can get you into a home.
Speaker 2 (18:07):
And that basically is about the same as you would
pay on an FHA loan three percent down payment. But
they what the forty nine hundred dollars is for. It's
the option, so you control that home. A home that
might be worth you know, three hundred four hundred thousand dollars,
you control it with forty nine hundred dollars for ten years.
(18:29):
I mean, that is a very very inexpensive way to
you know, actually leave an option open so you have
the right, but not the obligation, to buy that property, right.
Speaker 1 (18:41):
Andy, exactly.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
So Andy can't sell it to anybody else for ten years.
But what if prices go down, do you still want
to buy it? Probably not, So you walk away. You're
out forty nine hundred bucks and you know, no harm,
no foul. If like most houses, especially during COVID, a
lot of the people that went into this owner finance
with Andy or a lease option plan with Andy, they
(19:07):
reaped over one hundred thousand dollars worth of profit of
what they had an agreement to buy that home for.
And so that's what really is a pretty interesting thing.
So between the three of us traditional financing, seller financing,
and lease option, I mean, we pretty much have all
the bases covered.
Speaker 1 (19:27):
And during that COVID era, we had a number of
folks that exercised options. And even now, just because they've
got such a nice equity position in the home. And
I've been told many times that if not for our program,
the market would have just gotten away from them.
Speaker 2 (19:45):
Now by the time they saved the down payment money,
the houses are out of their reach.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
So Jerry, do you have any recent stories of people
that were struggling to make it down and they we
had one week that we got an offer on the
property and the people we had a private money loan,
but we still qualify them with a license loan originator
to verify their ability to repay. And they're paid in cash.
(20:15):
The guy works for his family and it's a cash
business and he's paid in cash. He has no record
of making any income and he called the underwriter turned
him down and basically said, no, I can't verify that
you have a source of income to pay. So we said,
well you have to get a family member somebody to
co sign for you. And this is something that you know,
(20:36):
We've had people that I had a real estate deal
going and the other agent calls and says, hey, they
can't qualify. And I said, have you talked to Jerry Sunt?
Have you talked to Jerry Stunt? Because if there's a way,
Jerry will find it a lot of people don't know
all the tricks Jerry does. And you've saved a lot
of transactions for us over the years.
Speaker 3 (20:57):
Jerry now appreciate that I did have you know. My
crazy story for the week was I had a barrower
who wanted to do a second on his home. And
the issue was is that he had his house appraised
two years ago for basically in a praise for like
three hundred and seventy five thousand, and then he went
(21:20):
through a credit union and was trying to do a
second and they ordered an appraisal. So two years later
they ordered an appraisal and it came back at a
lower price than what it did when he bought it
two years ago.
Speaker 2 (21:34):
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
So a real or friend gave him you know my
number and say called Jerry and let's get to the
bottom of it. So I dug into the situation and
what had happened is the borrowers, since when he bought
the property, did an addition to the home, and it
is the when it was appraised two years ago, the
(21:57):
appraiser gave him a value of ties two thousand square feet.
I'm just rounding up. And the new appraiser because he
added a kitchenette to the addition, it was an ad u. Uh.
The appraiser that did it for the credit union only
gave him credit for eleven hundred square feet m So
(22:17):
how do you explain to a borrower that two different
appraisers too, you know, uh uh, you know, two years
apart come up with basically the same purchase price, but
one is not giving credit for nine hundred square feet.
So it's breaking it down and explaining the rules of
how an appraiser works and why this appraiser didn't give
(22:40):
credit for it, and what you need to do to
fix that problem. So I just I found it very
interesting and like we all deal with in uh you know,
we're all problem solvers on this show, and it's like,
how can I solve this person's problem given the dynamics.
Speaker 2 (22:57):
And that's right. You know, when when we get a
house under contract, we have actually removed the key safe,
and the appraiser to get in that home has to
meet with me, and I show up and make sure
that they know that this square feet is different than
what it shows on the county assessor site and that
alone has my appraisal problems. When I started doing that,
they went away, And it wasn't because I'm influencing the
(23:19):
appraiser in any way. It's just I'm making sure that
they know about the best amenities of that house. And
I go out of my way not to tell an
appraiser how to do their job. I mean, they know
way more about appraising than I do. But I just say, hey,
you know, if if this house has ceramic tile floor
and a diagonal which is way more costly to install,
(23:40):
does that add any value to the house. And basically
that was my way of telling them that the house
had ceramic tile on today, so you know what, find
the best aspects of that house. The east west orientation
is a big one in Tucson, and you know, if
you have an east facing yard, you're going to be
shading in the afternoon at two o'clock and if you
(24:00):
have a west facing yard, you're going to have some
blazoned in the windows at nine o'clock at night. And
there's a difference. I mean there's a fifty thousand dollars
difference or more between two houses, same floorplan across the street.
So just pointing that out to appraisers really really helps
make a difference.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
It does.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
Yeah, unlike anything else, the appraisers tend to have so
many appointments jammed in their schedule, so they only have
so much time to work on these things. So if
you can help them out, give them some data and
talk about those points, it's usually very helpful as long
as you're not obnoxious about it and try to influence
them as you say about so. And with that, we
(24:37):
are coming up on another break. This is Andy Keel
with Epic Realty and we will be right back. Good morning,
and welcome back to the final edition of The Home
Solutions Show. This is your host, Andy Keel with Epic Realty,
and I can be reached at five two zero five
(24:59):
three nine and I'm joined again with Bob Zachmeyer and
Jerry sent Bob. Before the break, we were just do
We're talking about a number of things if you want to.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
Continue on so before we forget again, we're going to
remind people this is our last show on KNSTS, So
if you want to continue to get the Home Solution Show,
it will be available on my website, which is notecerriy
dot com. That is n O T E c A
r r y dot com. You log in, there's a
(25:33):
banrupt top that says Solution Show and you click and
future episodes will be out there. You can listen to
them in your car on your favorite podcast app either
Apple or Google Play or Spotify or wherever you get
your podcasts, we'll be available to listen it on your convenience,
same data, same everything, just not glued to a radio
(25:54):
station every Sunday morning at the same time, and if
you miss it, it's gone. So, you know, we were
talking about the differences in the market between when we
started this show thirteen years ago and now. And you know,
the biggest one. The inventory is almost identical, one hundred
and forty units off, the number of sales is forty
units off, and so those are very, very similar. But
(26:17):
the price one hundred and seventeen thousand dollars when we
started this program back in twenty twelve, and that has
changed drastically. And you know, that's the biggest thing is
how affortable was it. Not only did we have one
hundred and seventeen thousand dollars, we had three percent interest rates,
you know when now you're looking at you know, four
hundred thousand and three eighty six is the median. And
(26:39):
but what's the rate this week, Jerry.
Speaker 3 (26:42):
I mean it's just under seven percent. They hire this week.
Rates are going the wrong direction. We'll talk about that
in depinitely here in a moment, but it is rates
are just under seven percent.
Speaker 1 (26:54):
Actually, before we get to that, I have a question
for you, Bob, if you have the data. I'm curious
you said the medium thirteen years ago was one seventeen.
Did you happen to know what the average is? Do
you have that one?
Speaker 2 (27:05):
Let me see if I can find that report. Go
ahead and move on and I'll look it up on
my computer. I don't have.
Speaker 1 (27:11):
Yeah, why don't you give us the rate update then, Jerry, Well,
Bob's looking at that.
Speaker 3 (27:15):
Yeah. So mortgage rates, you know, ticked higher this week,
and simply due to the fact of what you know,
so much of what happens in Washington is affecting mortgage rates. Now,
I want to say now more than ever. You know, obviously,
when the announcement of tariffs happened, it there was a
lot of turbulence in the in the equity markets as
(27:37):
well as the bond markets, which bond markets directly affect
the mortgage backed securities market, which is what mortgage rates
are based on. And this past week we had the
same turbulence, and that is you know, there was worried
about or concern that there is with the changes in
the tax laws, and what was some of the bills
(28:01):
that we're going through Congress to get that pass is
going to add you know, X amount of trillions of
dollars to the debt, and there's questions on whether it
will actually bring the growth. So if we're adding a
bunch of debt to our balance sheet, in a way,
it's fine as long as growth happens, which is what
you know, that's kind of what we're all basing our
(28:22):
theory on, is that the economy is going to roar.
Right if you turn around and we're stripping back regulation.
You know, we have tax cuts with these tariffs, and
we're manufacturing more at home, all of a sudden, the
economy is just going to be ripping, which will offset
any increase in the debt that we accumulate. Its country. Well,
there's concerns about that, and that is what has caused
(28:45):
this turbulence with mortgage rates because on Wednesday, when there
was a bond auction, a twenty year bond auction. And
I've never had people call me and talk to me
about bond auctions before until recently, because you know, no
one really cared about, you know, bond issuances or bond auctions.
Now everyone's like, ooh, did that go well? Didn't go
(29:07):
well because we're issuing a lot of debt and that
is is going to influence where mortgage rates go in
the future. Yeah. Well, now there's talk that the tenure
will the tenure yield may hit five percent in the
next few months. Well, not good people's conversations thirty days ago.
Speaker 1 (29:28):
Well, a lot of this was when we kind of
got rocked last weekend with the moodies. The US debt down.
Speaker 3 (29:35):
We got right before, right after the closing bell on Friday,
You are correct.
Speaker 1 (29:41):
So I think that's uh. On Monday morning, we we
didn't look very pretty and it wasn't as gloom and
doom as some folks thought, but it certainly rocked the
mortgage market. And I think that's why so many folks
are paying attention to the Treasury sales auction.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
It just it is quite funny that things that we
used to take for granted, I'm now getting calls from
borrowers and or relator saying, hey, do you see that
bond auction, And it's like, now this kind of stuff's
on on you know, it is on everyone's mind. So
it is quite humorous, But anyway, it's where do we
(30:26):
go from here. The as of now, the end of
the year predictions are still intact. Barry Habib is still
thinking rates will be closer to six percent. Fannie May
is still predicting rates closer to six percent. The Mortgage
Bankers Association is like six point three seven five. I
think National Association of Realtors is still expecting rates to
(30:50):
fall by the end of the year. So the forecasts
are still intact. But the short term is that we
may see higher rates. Now none of us know, but
you know, it may be that the summer doesn't give
relief for rates, but that rates actually move higher in
the short term.
Speaker 2 (31:10):
So during the average home buyer buying a four hundred
thousand dollars getting a four hundred thousand dollars loan, let's
just say that at seven percent, their payment would be
twenty six sixty one and at six percent it would
be twenty four forty four. So that would be about
two hundred and twenty dollars a month cheaper every month
for the homeowner if that rate drop happens.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Yep, And so you know, this is why we are
offering to pay the lender fees and the title fees.
When rates do come down for our borrowers, is how
else do you protect That's how we view it as
a way to protect our buyers, is that, hey, we
give you the confidence to go ahead and move forward
with this purchase. Now with a payment. You may not
be comfortable with a one hundred percent, but no, the
(31:55):
when rates do come come down, we're going to take
care of you. And it is you know, I don't
know how else to protect people in this environment. And again,
just thirty days ago we were no one was talking
about rates possibly going to seven to seven and a
half and here we are that is on some people's
forecasts that rates will move higher before moving lower.
Speaker 2 (32:20):
Who knows how does it work when people lock their rate?
And can you unlock it? And does it when do
they charge you a fee? Can you do it once
for free? What's this story on that?
Speaker 3 (32:31):
Yeah, So when you lock an interest rate, you're hedging
a bet with you know, with money, and so there's
a cost to break that hedge, and so rates have
to fall by a quarter percent or more to make
reassessing or renegotiating that that rate manageable for the company.
(32:55):
Because if you break a hedge, it's going to cost
you money, so you have to be making more money.
Rates have to fall by a certain level where you
can still make that spread to cover the cost of
a hedge.
Speaker 2 (33:07):
Gotcha, and Andy, you had asked me a question, what
was the median home price back in when we started
this program in the beginning of twenty twelve, the average
eighty three thousand, eleven dollars was the median home price
in Tucson, or the average home price. The median was
one seventeen. The average was one eighty three. And now
(33:29):
I looked it up. I was wrong. I said three
eighty six. It's three sixty eight. I mixed those two
numbers up. So the median in the month of April
was three hundred and sixty eight thousand versus one seventeen
thirteen years ago. And the average home in Tucson went
from one eighty three back in twenty twelve to four
hundred and fifty four thousand and three thirty. That's the
(33:51):
average home price in Tucson now four fifty four.
Speaker 3 (33:54):
Wow, I forgot it.
Speaker 1 (33:57):
That would imagine kind I find that kind of fascinating though,
that there was a basically about a sixty thousand dollars
spread there between the one seventeen one eighty three just
really rough. And it's uh looking at that. We're about
(34:18):
about ninety thousand or so spread today.
Speaker 2 (34:20):
So it increased, but.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
From a percentage basis, the average and the median are
a lot closer today than they were thirteen years ago.
I find that rather interesting.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
Actually, Yeah, the median home price in the last thirteen
years went up three hundred and fourteen percent. The average
home price went up two hundred and forty eight percent,
but still, you know, thirteen a pretty good jump. Two
hundred and forty eight percent or three hundred and fourteen
(34:50):
that's the myth. Yeah, And that's the thing you know
that people you know, oftentimes when I say the median
home price dropped, that doesn't mean the value of your
home drop. That just means the value of the homes
that people are buying dropped. And every time there's an
increase in interest rates, people are pre qualified for a
cent amount, and when there's an increase in interest that
(35:11):
makes their payment higher. They have to shop for a
lower priced home, and the pressure on the lower priced
home market is far higher than it is usually on
the higher price home market. But there's been several months
in the last even this year, in the last five months,
where there were more homes sold over a million dollars
than there were under two hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (35:33):
Yeah, I think a good gauge for looking at to
kind of level it out is to look at the
price per square foot. That seems like a more stable way.
And even that's not by any means perfect, but you
can get a better feel for things because, as you said,
the median, when the prices go up, when the rates
are higher, buyers tend to gravitate towards the lower end
(35:56):
of the market because it's more affordable. But that doesn't
necessarily mean the higher end or bigger homes have lost value.
They're just not selling as many of them. So the
price per square foot seems to be a better.
Speaker 2 (36:08):
Gauge, right, And you know the thing that gets you
in trouble with the dollars per square foot is that's
only unlivable area. So when you have one building that
doesn't have a garage and one has a three car garage,
there's going to be a massive difference in dollars per
square foot.
Speaker 1 (36:24):
YEP, that's another problem with that price per square foot.
So there is no there's no perfect method of doing this.
It's why we look at all the data and yeah, you.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
Look at all of them and kind of find the
part where they all agree and they kind of point
in the same direction.
Speaker 1 (36:41):
Yeah, exactly so. And with that, we are coming up
on our final break. This is Andy Keel with the
Home Solutions Show on K and ST and we will
be right back for this final segment in just a moment.
Good morning, and welcome back to the Home Solutions Show.
This is Andy Keel with Epic Realty and I can
be reached at five two zero five three nine nine
(37:05):
five nine one, and I'm joined again with Bob Zachmeyer
with the XP Realty and Jerry Sunt with Cross Country
Mortgage Guys. One last time, if you'd like to share
your information for the audience, please, my number.
Speaker 3 (37:21):
Is five two oh three seven zero nine five seven six.
Speaker 2 (37:27):
And I'm Bob Zachmeyer with XP Realty. I also have
a note coaching business called notecarry dot com. You can
reach me five two zero three one four sold and
don't forget that. That is where our Home Solutions podcast
will reside going forward after today is on the note
Carrie n ot e c a r r Y dot
(37:49):
com website, and you'll be able to get all the
episodes and listen to them on your favorite podcast app
on your phone or in your car wherever you are.
You don't have to be glued to the radio. On
send and that'll start when after this week's show. We
started this in January of twenty twelve and every Sunday
(38:10):
for almost thirteen years. It's a long time.
Speaker 3 (38:15):
That is a long time. It really is.
Speaker 2 (38:18):
Well. One of the reasons, you know, I turned sixty
five last November, and I am traveling quite a bit,
and we actually found some friends to watch our house
for the summer. And I'm in Big Fork, Montana right now.
And the morning low this morning was forty five degrees.
Today's high will be sixty two prety nice. Oh it's beautiful.
(38:41):
I mean, it's little chilly in the morning. You need
a jack and to walk the dogs. But you know,
by Sunday we'll be up to seventy six, but it
won't get much past the low eighties all summer long,
and so we're very very excited about that. We found
a property last year in an RV park where every
owner owns their own lot. There's only twenty nine of us.
So we're here for our first first summer and I'm
(39:03):
still you know, working real estate from Afar and putting
notes together for a lot of my clients that want
to do private lending and don't know how, or you know,
don't you don't know who to trust or whatever. You know,
we still have done that. I actually helped over six
hundred of those clothes. That's people in Tucson that couldn't
apply or couldn't qualify for a bank loan. They have
(39:26):
sporadic income, they haven't been on their job two years,
I mean, for all the various reasons. Because most loans
are sold and they have to meet that overlay, the
Fanny and Freddie overlay in order to be accepted, and
they don't qualify. So most bankers don't have option B.
They just say no, we can't give you a loan.
And that's where you know, having somebody like Jerry Sunt.
(39:48):
Jerry has bailed out so many deals for me that
you know, we had someone that wanted to buy a home.
We had a seller that wanted to sell it, a
buyer that wanted to buy it, and something got in
the way, and you know one was going to fail
that I mentioned earlier, and the agent just gave up
and said, nope, deal's dead. I'm gonna have to cancel.
And it's like, let's call Jerry, and Jerry asked one question,
(40:09):
can you get a co signer? And boom, the parents
came in and co signed and deals back on the table.
But why wouldn't that other other lender or the other
real estate agent think of that?
Speaker 3 (40:20):
Well, you know, it happens a lot. Or it's you know,
when someone's self employed saying they don't qualify. It's like, okay,
well you know I did this. It was I think
a year year and a half ago. I had a
one point six million dollar purchase and a guy with
great credit score putting down twenty percent, and he went
to three different lenders and these these were all big
name lenders, and they had each of them had turned
(40:43):
him down. And I said, well, wait a second, Okay,
you're self employed. You you show a loss on your
tax returns. I mean you do for a living? Goes well,
I own a bunch of pizza franchises up and down
the coast to California and Arizona, and I said, do
they is it? What do your bank statements look like?
And he goes, oh, the cash flow is crazy, it's amazing.
(41:06):
And I'm like, well, then why don't we just get
twelve months of bank statements and of all your different
restaurants and let's see what the income's like. So he
sent me nine hundred and thirty pages of bank statements.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
Oh my gosh.
Speaker 3 (41:19):
The next morning my head writer chewed through the bank statements,
he was approved, and he closed two weeks later on
his house. Well, you know, it just it's all about
just thinking outside the box. And Bob, the same goes
for you, right, how many times have you saved buyers
from you know, I know people that I've been working
with or investors that have said should I be buying
(41:41):
this home? And it's like, no, don't buy this home.
This is going to be a real problem for you
down the road if you buy it. And for these reasons,
where the relatory that they were using was you know, pushing.
Speaker 2 (41:53):
For the sale yep.
Speaker 3 (41:54):
And that's where integrity and looked thinking you know, in
the in the buyer's best in and knowing age and
history and knowledge on our side were able to say no,
you know what, here's here's what's going to be best
for you down the road, and then.
Speaker 2 (42:11):
You can actually run your business like that, Jerry. Most
of my businesses referral, and that's from people that I've
done a good job for. And a lot of the
people we sold homes to back in two thousand, their
kids are buying houses from us now, and they weren't
even married when we sold them their own. Now their
children are buying houses from us. And there's homes in Tucson.
There's at least a half a dozen homes that I
(42:33):
have sold four or more times, the same house over
and over again. And you know that the people I
find a buyer for about one out of three of
all the homes that we sell, I find the buyer.
So you know, we had this listing, the buyer came
in and bought it. We represented them on that. When
they go to sell, they call us back. I find
the next buyer. And that's why you can get these
(42:55):
houses where you've sold them multiple times without any hiccups.
And when you're the other agent on the other end
of the line, it makes for a very easy transaction.
I mean it's oftentimes Camilla and I will split and
she will represent one side and I will represent the other.
And that way everybody knows that this isn't some shoe
(43:16):
in that we're just pushing through. And I've never sold
a house to earn a commission. I mean, I help
people find what's right for them, and a lot of
times they don't know. And that's my job, is to
educate them about what's out there and why they should
buy this and why they shouldn't buy that. Andy. I
can't say enough about Andy. I started and I met
(43:37):
Andy at an investor club meeting. Actually we had our
first deal together. And what back in twenty eighteen, and
we had a house listed for sale and Andy this
house was rough around the edges. It had been a
rental for twenty years and it was pretty rough. And
Andy came in and said, I want to do a
sewer line inspection and a roof inspection and that's all.
(43:57):
He had those two inspections, closed it in two weeks
and with financing that I procured or found to have done.
And I was like, wow, Andy, that was awesome. You
know a lot of these houses that have issues, you know,
deferred maintenance being the biggest one with most landlords is
you know, now you get a first time home buyer
(44:19):
that doesn't have the money or the skill to fix
that home, and they're coming in and just nickeling and
diving and pain you know, asking for every single thing
on the inspection list to be listed. Man, if I
can get somebody that all they want to see is
the big, heavy hitter items, the roof and the sewer line,
this is golden. So I actually took Andy out to
dinner and Cheryl and I said, what can we do
(44:44):
to work better together? And how many houses did we
buy together?
Speaker 1 (44:48):
Andy?
Speaker 2 (44:48):
Like twenty four?
Speaker 1 (44:50):
I lost count, but it was well over twenty.
Speaker 2 (44:53):
And the timing of all that was amazing because we
bought those during COVID. Every one of those homes went
up by a thousand or more during COVID, and you
know still even though the prices are sliding a little
bit now. I mean, it's an amazing thing that right
toward the end of my working career, you know, to
(45:14):
have that happen and add an extra seven figure some
onto your network, that was a pretty pretty nice surprise.
Andy's the same way, you know, if there's something that
isn't right. And I'll just tell you we had one
client that had Parkinson's and for those that I have
a good friend with Parkinson's, I mean there's times you
can be delusional, and this guy just wasn't. He wanted
(45:37):
to buy the home, and Andy actually pulled the plug
and said, no, you're not. I don't want to sell
to someone that's, you know, making decisions under under a handicap,
under duress or you know. So you know, that shows
a lot of just really good faith that you're in
it for everybody to win and not just for yourself.
Speaker 1 (45:57):
Yeah, it just it's all about just doing the right
thing for your customer or your client. If you're in
it for a commission, if you're in it just to
fill a house, that's just never going to end well.
And I wanted to give a special shout out to
Bob as well known Bob since, as he said, we
did our first transaction back in twenty eighteen and have
(46:18):
proceeded by a number of houses well over twenty together.
Just a wonderful, wonderful person to work with. Bob has
just this superpower that I'm sure many of you are
well aware of that he can take very complicated information
and simplify it in a way that's easy for all
of us to understand. Bob just does such a wonderful
(46:39):
job of with the creative financing and being able to
just solve problems in a creative way. So thank you
for all that.
Speaker 3 (46:49):
And Bob, I know I speak for all the listeners.
We thank you for sharing all of your knowledge with
us for so many years.
Speaker 2 (46:58):
Not a problem. I enjoy it. That's why I'm excited
that we can move forward. I mean, just from a
financial standpoint, this radio show was the most expensive line
item in my budget. And if I'm trying to slow
down my activity, I'll never quit, but I want to
slow down a little bit. And actually I'm really not,
you know, actively advertising for new clients. I have friends
(47:23):
that we've sold dozens of homes with and you know,
past clients that I'm going to continue to support. Anyway,
I really appreciate the faith that everyone has put into us,
and you know, forty six hundred times people have trusted
us to buy or sell a home and that just
means a lot to my wife and I. So don't
forget the radio show. This is the last one we
(47:45):
will be on a podcast. You can download it and
keep it forever. You can go to www dot note
Kerrie dot com, n O T E C A R
R Y dot com and just click on Home Solutions
Show and that's where you'll find us. And again, I'm
Bob Zachmeyer five two zero three one four Ushold Jerry.
Speaker 3 (48:05):
Five two zero three seven zero nine five seven.
Speaker 1 (48:10):
Six and this is Andy Keel five two zero five
three nine nine five nine one. And as we're coming
up to the end of this show on this Memorial
Day weekend, I just wanted to make a special announcement
to honor our fallen veterans and as well as our
current and past veterans that have served. Thank you for
(48:32):
all of you, and it's been an honor being part
of this show in this last year and hope to
see you in the future on the podcast. Thanks guys,
and but it's been quite the journey.
Speaker 2 (48:42):
Thank you everyone.
Speaker 1 (48:43):
Have a great Memorial Day weekend everyone. Thanks