Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Wellington Mornings podcast with Nick Mills
from News Talk said, b joining.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Us now is the man himself. He's an economist and
he's a chief executive of Infometrics. Brad Olson, Good.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Morning, Brad, good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
I mean, let's cut to the chase. How tough is
it for young people right now?
Speaker 3 (00:29):
Oh, it's incredibly difficult. We know that if you're under thirty,
your job chances, your job opportunities are just so much
more heavier hits than any other part of the economy.
You look at the likes of filled job numbers across
New Zealand, there's declines across the board shore, but there
are about four thousand fewer people over the age of
(00:50):
thirty who have lost jobs thirty four thousand under the
age of thirty. So the hit coming through for young
New Zealanders is quite clear. It means that you've got
a much higher unemployment rate, all of those things becoming
a real challenge. And of course that's because not only
have you got a generally weakend labor market, but also
if you are an employer at the moment and you've
(01:11):
got a lot of job applications coming in, often you're
looking to hire the person who's got a bit more
experience than those who don't have a lot of experience
in the labor market. So everything at the moment counts
against young people.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
But you would have thought, I would have thought that
someone like twenty seven, twenty eight, under thirty you said,
thirty four thousand, you know, I've lost their jobs. You'd
think that's the perfect age for a good, rock solid employee,
wouldn't you.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
Oh, you totally would And I think especially in this
day and age, with new technology and everything else coming through,
that's the sort of person that you might want to
bring into your business to shake things up a bit,
to you know, make you test the processes. Are you know,
a modern business or are you still just working with
the old sort of ways of operation. And of course
means that you might be able to build up that
(01:58):
employee over time. But for a lot of businesses out there,
there's just simply not quite as much at work economic
activity going on, and so for a lot of businesses
they're just not hiring. The number of job ads out
there being advertised currently the lowest since about twenty thirteen,
So there's just very very few roles a lot of
competition from all ages going through. And if you're a
(02:20):
boss and you're saying, how do I take forward? Do
you take the person with two years experience or the
person with twenty years experience? You'll probably take the person
with twenty years experience just because you think they might
hit the ground running a bit quicker.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Yeah, but surely you'd look at that person with twenty
years experience and say that's going to cost me one
hundred grand when you look at the person with two
years experience and I can get there for sixty eight
or seventy two thousand.
Speaker 1 (02:42):
Well, yes and no.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
I mean the way that wages have moved in recent
times means that everyone sort of starting expectation for their
wage is a whole lot higher. And we don't generally
see wages go backwards. We just see lower employment. And
that's because you know, people are still going to pay
their bills. You look at the likes of inflation recent times.
Everyone's expectations of what they need to get paid at
(03:04):
a base level is so much more. And with the
high level of unemployment you're seeing across the country, the
fact that you have seen more people across all age
groups who have lost jobs. A lot of those people,
if they've been out looking for a job for a while,
they're happy to take a lower amount of pay. Lower
pays better than no pay at all. And so again
you've just got this really intense competition for roles. Looking
(03:25):
at some of the data next suggests that you could
be seeing something like three to four times as many
applications for every job out there on offer then you
would have seen in sort of more normal times. So
competition is intense for young people.
Speaker 2 (03:39):
I don't know whether you saw it, but there was
a story on one News a couple of weeks ago
about a subway in christ Church. I think it was
a subway. It was definitely a fast food outlet that
had one part time job advertised and had two thousand applicants.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
Oh totally. I mean, I think, you know, the Iica
that they're looking to open Norkland had similar sorts of numbers.
You know, I think it only had a couple of
hundred roles, but it had you know, a couple of
tens of thousands of applications or something like that, so
that the numbers are significant. And I guess the challenge,
right is that this all comes at a time when
those are still only the people that are still left
around who are applying for the roles. We know there's
(04:15):
been quite an outflow of New Zealander's, particularly younger kiwi's
out across the ditch to Australia looking for different opportunities,
so there are a lot of challenges coming through. I
guess the key point here though, is that it's not,
in a sense anything wrong that current job seekers are doing.
It's just that the numbers game of there not being
(04:35):
a lot of roles out there. But it is quite challenging.
You know, you come across people that are very demoralized.
They haven't found a role after significant searching. They've got
some good skills, they've got a lot to offer, but
there's just not as many roles out there.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
We had a text through before from a seventy two
year old that says he had to be because of
the financial time, because his rates kept going up, insurance
costs kept going up. He had to go back and
to work. He found a job at seventy two. He's
taken a young people's job. Young person's job, isn't.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
He I don't know if i'd got a characterize in
quite that way. But yes, we are seeing those groups
come through back into the market. I told you before
that the decline for young people is quite large. I
think I gave you the raw numbers, but in terms
of the percentage change under thirties down five point six percent.
You want to look at the over sixty five year
(05:23):
old group though, that's up two point nine percent from
where it was a year ago. So I think what
you're seeing is probably two things. One, yes, there will
be some workers who are sort of at or past
retirement age who might be coming back in to the
market because of the cost challenges they're facing. But you
might also be seeing people that normally would age out
of the workforce earlier, they're sticking around in their jobs
(05:45):
for longer because of those financial pressures and similar So
there's not as much normal churn coming through in the
labor market, not as many people that are sort of
moving through, moving out of the workforce and then providing
a job opportunity for someone else entering in. So all
of that sort of creating pressures. But again goes to
the fact that a lot of the time, some of
those older workers they might not be wanting to work
(06:06):
for quite as long and so they're a bit more
available for part time work. That's a trend we've seen
the economy recently too. Businesses again unsure, uncertain about the economy,
not wanting to take on a full time worker, but
happier to take on someone part time. And that does
again open up options where you've got more competitions for
part time roles because you'll have you know, you'll have mothers,
(06:29):
you'll have those who are in that sort of retiree category.
All of those competing for it, they wouldn't be competing
for roles if they were full time roles. To the
same degree, Brad.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
What did you do when you were going through a
university when you were young? Did you work part time
or did you you just an academic?
Speaker 3 (06:44):
No? I I was a real nerd. I started working
at its Metrics are as a data analyst halfway through
my first year at university. So I'm sort of a
bad example here because I got straight into the sort
of into professional services. But everyone conversity, I was incredibly lucky.
I also worked hard for that, to be clear. But look,
I think importantly you see that as well at university
(07:05):
at the moment where people are having to get you know,
always need to have a hospitality, retail job or similar
to try and pay their bills. The big challenge though,
that we continue to hear at the moment for a
lot of young people is also that when they finish university,
they finish you know, their qualifications are similar that graduate
role spot there, so you know, there's not as many
graduate roles for government. But you hear enough as well
(07:27):
of New Zealand trained nurses who go. You know, I
thought we needed more nurses in the workforce and I've
finished my studies and all of a sudden there's no
job opportunities going. So you know, all of those make
it just so much harder for young people to get
their foot in the door, let alone hold down a
job for a long period of time.
Speaker 2 (07:43):
Brad, it's always fantastic. I appreciate you giving us up
your time. That's Brad Olsen, chief executive of Informetrics. He's
part of this story. Two point nine up for over sixty.
That's an interesting one. Now, how many people do we
have on this show that always continuously see say ring
(08:04):
up and say, oh I'm too old. They won't give
me a I'm too old compared to gen Z. You're well,
you're okay two point nine up percent. If you're over sixty,
I mean you may be not doing it as tough
as you think you are.
Speaker 1 (08:21):
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