CSB - Phil O'Reilly - Business Time

Three big business issues of the week. 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the rugby field to the rotary shed.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
It's the country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly on gold
Sport said.

Speaker 3 (00:07):
Oh yeah, is business is business?

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Trying to get down to business now catch up with
Pillow Riley, Managing director of Iron Duke Patterners. No doubt
got a couple of Jimmy Hendrix's albums in his vinyl
collection Morning phil In.

Speaker 1 (00:30):
Because I don't, I don't have any Jimmy Hedrix. I
must say that maybe I should have imbably had a
misspeent use in business for that much Jimmy Hendrix.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
All right, well, let's talk business anyway. We're not talking Hendricks. First,
the latest forecasts for the New Zealand Institute of Economic
Research is out. What are they telling.

Speaker 1 (00:47):
Us, Well, remember these are the ones we talked about before.
These are the conceits of forecasts. So inded I, one
of the big economic agencies down here Wellington, Gozans look
at what all the other economists are saying, and they
come out with the regrettable story is that the contensus
forecast with the New Zealand economy out over the next
year or so is for zero growth. In other words,
we will be batal. We are now. That's it could

(01:09):
be worse. We could be shrinking, we could be implication,
but it's very were their suggesting really weak growth and
not really getting back into any sort of growth until
twenty five twenty six now just and there's reasons for that.
I mean, if you look at what's technic in China,
are they going to pull us out like they did
during the global financial crisis? No, they put their own problems.
The Australian economy is not going all that well. The

(01:30):
US economy is pretty distracted with the presidential election. So
when you look out at the world, who's going to
pull us out? Who's going to take our exports and
pay a lot of money? It's hard to find who
they might be in the same way that they were
in the past. But here's another data point that might
get you a little more hopeful, and that is the
business confidence. Business confidence is a sky high right now.
And some of that I think is because it's so

(01:50):
tough to so lot anything's better than this, and so
business comings Actually what I now that might mean that
you'll see more business investment than the economists are saying.
Because this is a confident they'll tend to hire they'll
tend to invest. I'm seeing talking to some of the
outland business community as a desire to get on with
this thing, so with some supportive government policies or infrastructure
for example. So let's hope it's because of that. But

(02:11):
certainly not not massively great news, I must.

Speaker 2 (02:14):
Say, absolutely. And while on forecast rubber Bank, they've just
reported on rural confidence and or maybe feel hopefully the
news a bit bit of there.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
Yeah, it is. It's remarkably better. Actually a robobank and
one of the one of the big banks for rural
New Zealanders, and they've reported that confidence has been as
the highest now in the farming sector that it's been
in the last many years a matter of facts like
years and years are past, and that's driven by a
lower interest rates of course, but also I think by
the government really getting on with free trade deals and

(02:44):
support of government environment around agriculture and farming and so on.
So you know, these confidence doesn't mean much in one sense,
it's just how you feel that. As we talked about before,
k it does lead to investment. That's why it's such
an important data point because it does lead to people
buying that new tractor or taking on that new market
or whatever it might be. So the fact that rural

(03:06):
confidence is going up has all sorts of good benefits,
not any business benefits, of course, but mental health benefits,
family benefits and community benefits. So you know that's so
that's good news, I thought, and worth worth raising today
for your particular listeners to say, you know, you know,
confidence and the ryal that's a good thing. They lead
to New Zealand in many ways.

Speaker 2 (03:24):
Yeah, absolutely, that's good to hear. The idea I want
to touch on this one, cracking down hard on texts avoidance,
particularly targeting student loan defaulters and cryptocurrency. So what's your
advice there. I mean, it's easy, doesn't pay your tax
bill well exactly.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
And I think you know a lot of people I
think they can out smart the ID. Well you can't.
I mean they've got at least as many powers, in
some cases more powers than using on police. They've got
powers to have a look at your record, chase you
around the world, and so on. And I've done some
what looks like on the face of it's some pretty
dodgy stuff giving data over to social media companies in
the last month or two, which I think we'll get

(04:00):
them deserved into trouble, but we'll go. There's what they're
indicating is the going to crack down on these areas.
And it's important that, I think for your listeners that
they understand that, you know, there's no way to escap this.
So people think they could be smarty pants and not
pay their student loan off and then they go offshore
for twenty years. Well likely going to be stopped at
the border when you come back, and you will come
back and you're going to come back for your mum's

(04:21):
funeral law because of a change in life circumstances. So
really it's a if you don't do it, it's a
prison sentence to stay off sure for the rest of
your life. And I understands that's what most people want,
and now I know. It was interesting to me it
was this cryptocurrency issue where you're getting some people saying, oh,
they didn't think they had to pay tax on gains
they made in cryptocurrency. By the way, I would never
invest in cryptocurrency. I think most of it's a Ponzi

(04:41):
scheme and I just would never do it. There's no
real business there. It's just me trading something with another person.
It's not something I buy at all. But for those
who do trade and apparently make some profits, there are
very few that do you know, that's a taxable outcome.
So I mean people say, oh, I don't have to
pay tax on crypto. Wrong, I'm sorry to pay text
on any you and come that you get in New

(05:02):
Zealand or optional to the New Zealand ID. So just
a youthful sort of point that the IED is cracking down.
I thought i'd raise it with your listeners this morning
to say get onto this. You know, have a look
at your affairs. Are you a going to get in
trouble if anybody comes in order to you? And so
get on to sort it out. Now, that's the best
way for you to move forward. And we should be
contributing properly. Of course we need to fund government services

(05:23):
and so on, so we should be doing what's reasonable
and what's right, and banging Texas is exactly.

Speaker 2 (05:27):
That, absolutely wise. Words of advice, Phil, Always great to
catch up mate, nice to chat, have a good one.
Managing Director of Vines your partners, Phil O'Reilly joining us
here on gold Sport and the Country