November 26, 2024 • 7 mins
Talking the big business issues of the week.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the cricket field to the cows shed. It's the
Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly on gold Sport. You're
trying to say, oh, yeah, is business is business?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Indeed, it is business time. Time to get down to business.
Catch up with Pillow Riley from Iron Youth Partner's Morning.
Phil got a bit to talk about today and obviously
the Reserve Bank announcing well expecting a fifty basis point
cut in the official cash rate later today. Will that
make an impact?
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Yeah, everybody's talking about fifty out there. I mean I
think the RB will go fifty. Interestingly, they I think
take a couple of months off. It's very offih, isn't it.
I'm going to go to the beach and now see
a lot of the economy sort of stops clearly for
them over Christmas break It's not the way it works
anymore that Fuller's but anyway, that's what they're going to do.
So this is the last one for a little while,
and I think they walk up by fifty. I don't
(00:55):
think you'll have an a media impact on morgage rates though,
because one of the banks have already priced this in
and I already be competing on that basis. There may
be some banks you kind of publicly or visibly make
some moves just to say, look at that, we've done
what was needed here. But you know, downward pressure on
mortgage rates anyway, and I think looking out into the
new year, you will continue to see them reduce a
(01:16):
better we've thought previously bying, haven't we about the fact?
I think they were too tight for too long and
the real economy's battling, as any business person will tell
you're still battling hard out there. So I think they
will continue to reduce interest rates the OCI coming into
the new year verse quarter, so I think they'll be
continued downward pressure on morgage rates, But I don't think
you'll see a big drop just just today as result
(01:37):
of what they're doing.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
What do you think the future will hold then, Phil
With they've on holiday, they've got time to think about it,
haven't they when they come back.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Come back? But I think you see, I think you've
continued decreases and you know, quite a long way down.
I think by in the first half the next year,
they realized that the economy now does need probably some support. Actually,
I think they'll be down towards neutral, even lower, just
to get that economy going. So more as I say,
morge rates will continue to decrease. It's it's just important
(02:07):
to understand. I think in the markets these days that's
much more dynamic about their mortgage interest rates than they
were previously. So they're already taking into account that kind
of trend and thinking as they compete about how to
bring on new customers, will retain them based on looking
ahead about what they think of there is a bet
might do so. Linkages these days between what the ocr
does and what interest rates do are a little more,
(02:28):
a little more opaque than they used to be.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Let's talk President Trump or trump elite. President sees he's
going to this is quite a big story during the
rounds today enforcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on
his first day as president. What do you think that'll
mean for us?
Speaker 1 (02:45):
That's extraordinary, isn't it? For a started look at some
of new ZE owned companies. I think Fisher and quite
called White where the washing machine guys, I think they
manufacture in Mexico, And a number of companies will manufacture
in Mexico because it's a cheaper labor state, cheaper to
manufacture there, but also close to the US market and
part of a free trade deal with America of course,
so he'll be breaching immediately the free trade deal he's
(03:08):
got with Mexico and Canada for a start, and that'll
have all sorts of implications. So I'm a US business
person right now, I'll be working hard to try and
work out how how the heck I can get work
out around in terms of a supply chain that will
be ver integrated between Canada and Mexico US, And obviously
that'll have a knock on impact to New Zealand. But
the really thing that's not being talked about so much
to day and interesting about a statement was why he's
(03:29):
doing it. He's doing it, he says, because he wants
those countries to do two things. One stop illegal migration
and secondly, stop fentanyl. This is the scourge of this
health scourge's happening in the United States now. The success
that's of Aucy Compton, that the addictive drug fentanyl, most
of it coming out of China. And you might recall
President Biden talking to g President g a year or
(03:50):
two ago and G making some pronouncements that he cracked
down on fentanyl. He hasn't, And so really what's interesting
about it to me is it just think, President elect Trump,
you use tariffs as an economic weapon to try and
cure social ill and in both of those cases a
legal migration fender and on our social issues. So that's really
an issue for me. We're going to see. I think
(04:10):
much more is that when he does become president, he's
going to use tariffs as a threat or as a
reality to try and get the things that he wants,
rather than the becoming permanent. And in a sense they
might be quite good for New Zealand in one sense
that he might not try to enforce lots of tariffs
on us if he sees us as being a friend
and we certainly are a friend of the United States
and not a threat. And that's quite interesting that statement.
(04:32):
I thought, not that he was saying it was going
to be permanent, whether it was because of two things
that he thought were important, and of course the American
people think they're important. They voted for him in great
numbers on those those two kinds of issues. So I
though it was a very insightful. You know, I think
we just need to step back and ask yourself what's
actually happening with this tariff policy, rather than saying, well,
he's doing his tariffs. Isn't that terrible? Yes, it is terrible,
(04:55):
But look at the reasons why and how we might
result some of those things going forward.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Man fascinating, wait to mad genuine see what happens. And
back at home, Chris Bishop has been talking about a
more active role for the private sector to build community housing.
Do you think it'll work?
Speaker 1 (05:09):
I think a long work, and I think it's I
think it's a very good thing that he's done. Under
the last government. What you saw, you saw this a lot,
not just in housing but other things as well, that
the only the only person allowed to do anything was
the public sector, and you saw carrying aura building lots
and lots of houses. Are some in my where I
grew up in that roscille in West Auckland. They're going
to be instant slums. They were dreadful things, really, three
(05:29):
three story walk ups with no real sort of amenity
to them and a bit. But as long as there's
government building it, that was fine. And the amount of
money you're going out and the amount of wate going
out into that was extraordinary and you've now seen that
with the review kind of aura by superl English and others.
And really, what Chris Bishop is saying, he doesn't care
who builds them, He just wants them built, and he
sees a real role for the private sector. And so
(05:51):
what you're seeing in the community sector as well, that's
what you're seeing here is a change in ideology from
the government to say, yes, we'll have a big public
housing provider, but we'll also you community housing providers. And
I'll argue that those community housing providers are closer to
communities that include any organizations, for example, religious organizations. I
think they'll be closer to communities. I think they'll do
a better job overall, so long as their cost of
(06:12):
financing and their cost actually getting these things out of
the ground is comparable to the state. And that's really
what Bishop's talking about. So I think congratulations to and
I think it's a very good thing. And I think
we're seeing more houses being built and better houses being
built in the context of the communities those housing providers serve.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
That's good news indeed. And fill you, being a Formula
one lover, what did you make of the vagus Formula
one grand Prix on the weekend.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Mat made for television stuff, you know. And I've walked
down the strip with the back straight wise of course
a few times late at night so I could see
what was going on there. But yeah, I don't think
Awson put his best put his best cap on Diddy,
but you know it was a great circus and congratulations
obviously the Maxi staffened for winning one of the great drivers.
I think a Formula One. I think man I know
(06:56):
has put it well. I said he won all the
early season in the Superior car and then continue to
win what he didn't at the Superior Car, and I
think that's a real lab that's a realplication of what
special man he is. And seeing history in action, I
think one of them bring great smiline drivers and stuff
and lossing and join her next year.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Yeah, let's hope. So indeed, two Grand Prixs to go,
so we'll watch and see what happens with Liam.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Mate.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Great, great to chat mate, have a good week and
we'll talk next week. Okay, check mate, Phillo Riley, I'm
you partners here on gold Sport. It was good to
chat with Philip
From the cricket field to the cows shed. It's the
Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly on gold Sport. You're
trying to say, oh, yeah, is business is business?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Indeed, it is business time. Time to get down to business.
Catch up with Pillow Riley from Iron Youth Partner's Morning.
Phil got a bit to talk about today and obviously
the Reserve Bank announcing well expecting a fifty basis point
cut in the official cash rate later today. Will that
make an impact?
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Yeah, everybody's talking about fifty out there. I mean I
think the RB will go fifty. Interestingly, they I think
take a couple of months off. It's very offih, isn't it.
I'm going to go to the beach and now see
a lot of the economy sort of stops clearly for
them over Christmas break It's not the way it works
anymore that Fuller's but anyway, that's what they're going to do.
So this is the last one for a little while,
and I think they walk up by fifty. I don't
(00:55):
think you'll have an a media impact on morgage rates though,
because one of the banks have already priced this in
and I already be competing on that basis. There may
be some banks you kind of publicly or visibly make
some moves just to say, look at that, we've done
what was needed here. But you know, downward pressure on
mortgage rates anyway, and I think looking out into the
new year, you will continue to see them reduce a
(01:16):
better we've thought previously bying, haven't we about the fact?
I think they were too tight for too long and
the real economy's battling, as any business person will tell
you're still battling hard out there. So I think they
will continue to reduce interest rates the OCI coming into
the new year verse quarter, so I think they'll be
continued downward pressure on morgage rates, But I don't think
you'll see a big drop just just today as result
(01:37):
of what they're doing.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
What do you think the future will hold then, Phil
With they've on holiday, they've got time to think about it,
haven't they when they come back.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Come back? But I think you see, I think you've
continued decreases and you know, quite a long way down.
I think by in the first half the next year,
they realized that the economy now does need probably some support. Actually,
I think they'll be down towards neutral, even lower, just
to get that economy going. So more as I say,
morge rates will continue to decrease. It's it's just important
(02:07):
to understand. I think in the markets these days that's
much more dynamic about their mortgage interest rates than they
were previously. So they're already taking into account that kind
of trend and thinking as they compete about how to
bring on new customers, will retain them based on looking
ahead about what they think of there is a bet
might do so. Linkages these days between what the ocr
does and what interest rates do are a little more,
(02:28):
a little more opaque than they used to be.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Let's talk President Trump or trump elite. President sees he's
going to this is quite a big story during the
rounds today enforcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China on
his first day as president. What do you think that'll
mean for us?
Speaker 1 (02:45):
That's extraordinary, isn't it? For a started look at some
of new ZE owned companies. I think Fisher and quite
called White where the washing machine guys, I think they
manufacture in Mexico, And a number of companies will manufacture
in Mexico because it's a cheaper labor state, cheaper to
manufacture there, but also close to the US market and
part of a free trade deal with America of course,
so he'll be breaching immediately the free trade deal he's
(03:08):
got with Mexico and Canada for a start, and that'll
have all sorts of implications. So I'm a US business
person right now, I'll be working hard to try and
work out how how the heck I can get work
out around in terms of a supply chain that will
be ver integrated between Canada and Mexico US, And obviously
that'll have a knock on impact to New Zealand. But
the really thing that's not being talked about so much
to day and interesting about a statement was why he's
(03:29):
doing it. He's doing it, he says, because he wants
those countries to do two things. One stop illegal migration
and secondly, stop fentanyl. This is the scourge of this
health scourge's happening in the United States now. The success
that's of Aucy Compton, that the addictive drug fentanyl, most
of it coming out of China. And you might recall
President Biden talking to g President g a year or
(03:50):
two ago and G making some pronouncements that he cracked
down on fentanyl. He hasn't, And so really what's interesting
about it to me is it just think, President elect Trump,
you use tariffs as an economic weapon to try and
cure social ill and in both of those cases a
legal migration fender and on our social issues. So that's really
an issue for me. We're going to see. I think
(04:10):
much more is that when he does become president, he's
going to use tariffs as a threat or as a
reality to try and get the things that he wants,
rather than the becoming permanent. And in a sense they
might be quite good for New Zealand in one sense
that he might not try to enforce lots of tariffs
on us if he sees us as being a friend
and we certainly are a friend of the United States
and not a threat. And that's quite interesting that statement.
(04:32):
I thought, not that he was saying it was going
to be permanent, whether it was because of two things
that he thought were important, and of course the American
people think they're important. They voted for him in great
numbers on those those two kinds of issues. So I
though it was a very insightful. You know, I think
we just need to step back and ask yourself what's
actually happening with this tariff policy, rather than saying, well,
he's doing his tariffs. Isn't that terrible? Yes, it is terrible,
(04:55):
But look at the reasons why and how we might
result some of those things going forward.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Man fascinating, wait to mad genuine see what happens. And
back at home, Chris Bishop has been talking about a
more active role for the private sector to build community housing.
Do you think it'll work?
Speaker 1 (05:09):
I think a long work, and I think it's I
think it's a very good thing that he's done. Under
the last government. What you saw, you saw this a lot,
not just in housing but other things as well, that
the only the only person allowed to do anything was
the public sector, and you saw carrying aura building lots
and lots of houses. Are some in my where I
grew up in that roscille in West Auckland. They're going
to be instant slums. They were dreadful things, really, three
(05:29):
three story walk ups with no real sort of amenity
to them and a bit. But as long as there's
government building it, that was fine. And the amount of
money you're going out and the amount of wate going
out into that was extraordinary and you've now seen that
with the review kind of aura by superl English and others.
And really, what Chris Bishop is saying, he doesn't care
who builds them, He just wants them built, and he
sees a real role for the private sector. And so
(05:51):
what you're seeing in the community sector as well, that's
what you're seeing here is a change in ideology from
the government to say, yes, we'll have a big public
housing provider, but we'll also you community housing providers. And
I'll argue that those community housing providers are closer to
communities that include any organizations, for example, religious organizations. I
think they'll be closer to communities. I think they'll do
a better job overall, so long as their cost of
(06:12):
financing and their cost actually getting these things out of
the ground is comparable to the state. And that's really
what Bishop's talking about. So I think congratulations to and
I think it's a very good thing. And I think
we're seeing more houses being built and better houses being
built in the context of the communities those housing providers serve.
Speaker 2 (06:28):
That's good news indeed. And fill you, being a Formula
one lover, what did you make of the vagus Formula
one grand Prix on the weekend.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Mat made for television stuff, you know. And I've walked
down the strip with the back straight wise of course
a few times late at night so I could see
what was going on there. But yeah, I don't think
Awson put his best put his best cap on Diddy,
but you know it was a great circus and congratulations
obviously the Maxi staffened for winning one of the great drivers.
I think a Formula One. I think man I know
(06:56):
has put it well. I said he won all the
early season in the Superior car and then continue to
win what he didn't at the Superior Car, and I
think that's a real lab that's a realplication of what
special man he is. And seeing history in action, I
think one of them bring great smiline drivers and stuff
and lossing and join her next year.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
Yeah, let's hope. So indeed, two Grand Prixs to go,
so we'll watch and see what happens with Liam.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
Mate.
Speaker 2 (07:17):
Great, great to chat mate, have a good week and
we'll talk next week. Okay, check mate, Phillo Riley, I'm
you partners here on gold Sport. It was good to
chat with Philip
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