March 12, 2025 • 5 mins
Amy talks with the host of ‘How to Money’ Joel Larsgaard discussing recession fears increasing and the reaction of the stock market.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's say good morning now to the host of How
to Money on KFI. It's our very own Joel Larsgard,
who stood us up yesterday because he wanted to go
to an awards show.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I know, I'm sorry about that, Amy, That's okay.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Was it fun you were at the the iHeart Podcast
Awards show.
Speaker 4 (00:14):
That's right, it was so much fun. I didn't win,
but I enjoyed being there. It was so much fun
just to meet all the interesting podcasters doing cool stuff
in the industry.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
All right, okay, so back to money.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Everybody's getting very nervous because of the tariffs in the
back and forth with all that, and that has people
talking recession.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yeah, yeah, for sure. In recession.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
There's like this like Goofield saying that economists have predicted
nine out of the last five recessions, like they're just
always predicting recessions. And I remember, maybe like eighteen months ago,
Bloomberg had this like fabled article where they said, our
recession indicator is telling us that there's one hundred percent
chance of a recession, and then that recession didn't materialize.
And so sometimes people get fatigued at hearing these predictions
(01:05):
over and over and they're like, all right, come on,
when is it actually gonna happen or we actually gonna
experience this recession. It's certainly looking a lot more real
uh these days, and it's looking a lot more likely.
And I think that's largely that's not because the economy
was on the rock, so that there was even this uh,
there was something happening kind of uh that there was
that there was an underlying weakness or something in in
(01:27):
the marketplace. It's literally just economic policy from our elected
officials right now. And so what's happening with tariffs is
creating so much uncertainty, so much unnecessary uncertainty in the marketplace,
and for a lot of businesses that and it's and
it's also causing a lot of investors to pull back
and saying, I don't know, is this is this the
(01:49):
best place for me to be putting my money right now,
which just leads to a lot of uncertainty for consumers
too on the back end.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Okay, so, Joel, you know, we all hear session and
everybody goes, oh, no, a recession.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
But what I mean practically, what does that mean for you?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah? And mean so yeah, so that's a good question.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
I mean, there's like the technical definition of a recession,
right right, so that's like two quarters of down growth,
and and like that is something that that's like, that's
the nerdy economist side of things, But what it typically
means we're talking about a recession and some people actually
I hear some people rooting for a recession. But the
truth is there's a lot of pain involved in a recession.
And some people are saying, well, a recession, maybe that'll
(02:29):
mean home price is going down. Maybe that'll mean lower
stock prices so I can get in on the action
at a discount rate. And that might be true, and
there might be some fringe benefits for some people, but
that's given hopefully that you keep your job right, that
income continues to abound for you in the midst of
tough economic times, which certainly isn't guaranteed. So you know,
(02:50):
we could see an uptick in in layoffs. Feels like
we're already kind of seeing the front end of that
a little bit. But the more uncertainty there is for businesses,
the less likely they are to hire people, the less
likely they are to hand out generous raises, and so
a recession really could be we don't know how long
a recession could last. We don't know how deep a
(03:12):
recession could be. And again, so much of that depends
on whether we pivot from some of the kind of
tariff insanity that we're headed towards, and if we can
kind of back down on some of that and maybe
use it as more of a negotiating tactic like it
was early on, instead of actually implementing these tariffs which
are going to harm consumers. It could mean higher prices.
Even if you keep your job and things are okay
(03:34):
in your world, well, it's just likely going to mean
higher prices for everyone too. So it's really hard to
say how this shakes out. But there's a lot of possibilities.
And for me, when I'm talking to people, I want
them to do two things. I want them to make
sure that they have cash on hand, like liquid cash
in a high heeled savings account is more crucial in
a time of economic turbulence and an uncertainty. And then
(03:55):
the other thing is as an investor, don't do anything different.
And it sounds weird to say that, I think people
are like, well, I don't know, man. We can see
the stock market drop another ten fifteen to twenty percent
if you are in the wealth building phase of your life,
in particular, if you have a decade plus to go
before you're tapping those funds, I still just don't want
(04:16):
people touching it. I want you to have a you know,
an investment policy kind of a strategy that doesn't say
I'm going to change on a whim based on who's
in the oval office. I want people to have the
same investing approach through thick and through thin.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Because when you're in the stock market, you're in for
the long run.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
That's right, That's exactly right. And so yeah, the short run,
it's it's not been great. We're basically in correction territory here,
and that you know, ten percent draw down, but also
know that that's not abnormal in a given year. So
what we're seeing in some ways is a little abnormal
as far from a policy perspective. But what we're seeing
from a stock market drop, this happens most years. In fact,
(04:56):
that the stock market seeds to drop like this, I
think when it's combined so with the politics and emotion,
it just makes it.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Feel a lot worse.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Okay, so don't panic.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Exactly, Yeah, where's panicking going to get.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
You exactly, exactly.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
This is where things are going to get you when
you listen to Joel lars Guard every weekend, He's going
to help get you in, get you your money house
in order. We'll say that. Lots of great advice, lots
of great tips. It's the host of how to Money
on KFI. You can hear it every Sunday from noon
to too right here on KFI. You can also follow
Joel at how to Money. Joel, Thank you, Joel.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
Thanks Amy
Let's say good morning now to the host of How
to Money on KFI. It's our very own Joel Larsgard,
who stood us up yesterday because he wanted to go
to an awards show.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I know, I'm sorry about that, Amy, That's okay.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Was it fun you were at the the iHeart Podcast
Awards show.
Speaker 4 (00:14):
That's right, it was so much fun. I didn't win,
but I enjoyed being there. It was so much fun
just to meet all the interesting podcasters doing cool stuff
in the industry.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
All right, okay, so back to money.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Everybody's getting very nervous because of the tariffs in the
back and forth with all that, and that has people
talking recession.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Yeah, yeah, for sure. In recession.
Speaker 4 (00:41):
There's like this like Goofield saying that economists have predicted
nine out of the last five recessions, like they're just
always predicting recessions. And I remember, maybe like eighteen months ago,
Bloomberg had this like fabled article where they said, our
recession indicator is telling us that there's one hundred percent
chance of a recession, and then that recession didn't materialize.
And so sometimes people get fatigued at hearing these predictions
(01:05):
over and over and they're like, all right, come on,
when is it actually gonna happen or we actually gonna
experience this recession. It's certainly looking a lot more real
uh these days, and it's looking a lot more likely.
And I think that's largely that's not because the economy
was on the rock, so that there was even this uh,
there was something happening kind of uh that there was
that there was an underlying weakness or something in in
(01:27):
the marketplace. It's literally just economic policy from our elected
officials right now. And so what's happening with tariffs is
creating so much uncertainty, so much unnecessary uncertainty in the marketplace,
and for a lot of businesses that and it's and
it's also causing a lot of investors to pull back
and saying, I don't know, is this is this the
(01:49):
best place for me to be putting my money right now,
which just leads to a lot of uncertainty for consumers
too on the back end.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Okay, so, Joel, you know, we all hear session and
everybody goes, oh, no, a recession.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
But what I mean practically, what does that mean for you?
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah? And mean so yeah, so that's a good question.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
I mean, there's like the technical definition of a recession,
right right, so that's like two quarters of down growth,
and and like that is something that that's like, that's
the nerdy economist side of things, But what it typically
means we're talking about a recession and some people actually
I hear some people rooting for a recession. But the
truth is there's a lot of pain involved in a recession.
And some people are saying, well, a recession, maybe that'll
(02:29):
mean home price is going down. Maybe that'll mean lower
stock prices so I can get in on the action
at a discount rate. And that might be true, and
there might be some fringe benefits for some people, but
that's given hopefully that you keep your job right, that
income continues to abound for you in the midst of
tough economic times, which certainly isn't guaranteed. So you know,
(02:50):
we could see an uptick in in layoffs. Feels like
we're already kind of seeing the front end of that
a little bit. But the more uncertainty there is for businesses,
the less likely they are to hire people, the less
likely they are to hand out generous raises, and so
a recession really could be we don't know how long
a recession could last. We don't know how deep a
(03:12):
recession could be. And again, so much of that depends
on whether we pivot from some of the kind of
tariff insanity that we're headed towards, and if we can
kind of back down on some of that and maybe
use it as more of a negotiating tactic like it
was early on, instead of actually implementing these tariffs which
are going to harm consumers. It could mean higher prices.
Even if you keep your job and things are okay
(03:34):
in your world, well, it's just likely going to mean
higher prices for everyone too. So it's really hard to
say how this shakes out. But there's a lot of possibilities.
And for me, when I'm talking to people, I want
them to do two things. I want them to make
sure that they have cash on hand, like liquid cash
in a high heeled savings account is more crucial in
a time of economic turbulence and an uncertainty. And then
(03:55):
the other thing is as an investor, don't do anything different.
And it sounds weird to say that, I think people
are like, well, I don't know, man. We can see
the stock market drop another ten fifteen to twenty percent
if you are in the wealth building phase of your life,
in particular, if you have a decade plus to go
before you're tapping those funds, I still just don't want
(04:16):
people touching it. I want you to have a you know,
an investment policy kind of a strategy that doesn't say
I'm going to change on a whim based on who's
in the oval office. I want people to have the
same investing approach through thick and through thin.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
Because when you're in the stock market, you're in for
the long run.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
That's right, That's exactly right. And so yeah, the short run,
it's it's not been great. We're basically in correction territory here,
and that you know, ten percent draw down, but also
know that that's not abnormal in a given year. So
what we're seeing in some ways is a little abnormal
as far from a policy perspective. But what we're seeing
from a stock market drop, this happens most years. In fact,
(04:56):
that the stock market seeds to drop like this, I
think when it's combined so with the politics and emotion,
it just makes it.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Feel a lot worse.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Okay, so don't panic.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
Exactly, Yeah, where's panicking going to get.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
You exactly, exactly.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
This is where things are going to get you when
you listen to Joel lars Guard every weekend, He's going
to help get you in, get you your money house
in order. We'll say that. Lots of great advice, lots
of great tips. It's the host of how to Money
on KFI. You can hear it every Sunday from noon
to too right here on KFI. You can also follow
Joel at how to Money. Joel, Thank you, Joel.
Speaker 2 (05:33):
Thanks Amy
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.