Investor Daily: Why Novo Nordisk Can’t Beat Eli Lilly - The Pharma Drug War

In this Market Mondays clip, Rashad Bilal and Ian Dunlap dive deep into the recent struggles of Novo Nordisk and explain why the stock’s steep drop isn’t an opportunity to buy. They break down Novo’s missed Alzheimer’s drug, compare Novo's margins and performance to Eli Lilly, and discuss the key issues behind GLP-1 drugs that have led to Novo’s downfall. Rashad Bilal likens the Novo-Lilly rivalry to Meta vs. Snap, highlighting that Novo simply doesn’t have Lily’s innovation or executive management. With Novo giving up nearly 75% of its gains and falling back to pre-2021 levels, the hosts consider the company’s future and why Lily is “the Nvidia of healthcare”—an industry monster that’s hard to defeat. Ian Dunlap adds insight into the pharmaceutical business cycle, the challenges of non-American firms in a US-centric market, and why breakthroughs in pill-form GLP drugs and healthcare plan adoption give Lily the edge. Together, they explore why weight loss drugs may not provide sustainable growth for Novo and why savvy investors should be cautious. If you want an unfiltered, expert take on the pharma giants and what’s ahead for GLP-1 drug makers, watch this clip for real insights you won’t find anywhere else. *Hashtags:* #MarketMondays #NovoNordisk #EliLilly #PharmaStocks #Investing #WeightLossDrugs #GLP1 #HealthcareInvesting #StockMarketAnalysis #RashadBilal #IanDunlap

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Speaker 2 (00:43):
Novo is going in the opposite direction. Novo almost as
forty fifty two week low. So what is the deal
with Novo? Is this opportunity to buy Novo?

Speaker 3 (00:55):
Hell No, Herald I didn't look like Jordan when Jordan
was out of the league playing baseball because David started
making them sit down. But when Jordan came back, heromined
shot the hair on his family because I don't watch
but no Novo. They missed on an Alzheimer's drug and
it's the crazy part that's interesting. They've fallen this much.

(01:17):
And isn't Novo's operate or net margin a gross margin
eighty nine percent? Like, how do you have a gross
margin net wide? And that stock does that? No, Lily
is a one of one company, and I have no
bias towards any of these, but Lily's just just is

(01:40):
it better company. This is like almost comparing Meta versus Snap.
I like Evan, I like to got glasses and when
the girls had the little filtered it's the fucking eight
years and it was fire. But they're not Meta. Novo's
not Lily. It's not I think if you look at
an executive management, drug the results of the drugs, the

(02:01):
pipeline that they have for the next five years, the
return on assets, return on equity. There's no point where
you look at Novo and say these two are the same.
It had a great moment, great, but it's over with.
I'm not saying that the company's dead. They're not going
to be delisted, but would they ever be Lily were
engine No.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
No, Yes, it's doesn't look great. It doesn't look great.
They you know, ozempic was is a thing. It on
became the band aid of its adhesives, right, but you
don't have a mode on that that drug like they

(02:47):
So when zip bound comes out, other glps come out
less lesser known, even some white label GLP comes out.
That's going to cut into your business model. And again,
when you have an administration that is held doound on
making sure that American companies strives and going out an
American company, Well, every fifth ad when you watch Good

(03:10):
Morning in America, when you watch the Today's show, it's
going to be that American company tomorrow when you watch
the American America and you're like, damn sure it was
right that they're going to make sure that they're going
to promote lily and because it has obviously a superior product,
but it has the motive of having to not rely
on one thing, the Alzheimer's pilled. This is like the

(03:34):
third I feel like this is like the third time
that this has not worked.

Speaker 3 (03:37):
That worked yep.

Speaker 1 (03:38):
I don't know how many chances they're going to get
to not have it work. The stock is now trading
at the five five years ago it was that in
twenty twenty one, it was trading at forty two dollars
and the SOCC is currently sitting here five years later
at forty five. Had a crazy run up obviously during
the GLP phase up to one forty five forty seven,

(03:59):
and now we're right back down to where we were
in twenty twenty one. Gonna be tough. Would I would
definitely not invest in this.

Speaker 3 (04:08):
If you look since inception when an ip or their
all time lowest two dollars and seventy four percent. Since
the high, they're almost have given up seventy five percent
of all those games I put in stock Club earlier.
Ten reasons why they have underperformed, but I'll give three here.
Through the expectations for the GFP one was too high.
The manufacturing bottlenecks and capacity limits were another issue, and

(04:31):
then also too Like outside of Lily, the weight loss
drug cycle of Boom and Bus has always been a
short cycle of winds and extreme losses like if you.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
Go back to.

Speaker 3 (04:45):
The ally drug like this category of weight loss drugs
has always had some issues, whether it was with a
veteran or heart issues or gut issues. This isn't a
sustainable product line that will work long enough to allow
you to build a business around it, to be able
to be okay, no, and then weight loss thows after

(05:08):
the two years. So in the best case scenario, after
two years, it's the end of the product cycle. So
the lifetime customer value is lower than every other competitor
that you have for other drugs that are doing incredibly well.
Like literally, is Damnar the n video of healthcare. You're
you're fighting a monster that cannot be defeated.

Speaker 1 (05:28):
This might not be one of those situations where number
two is actually they already announced that they're they're trying
to get GLPS to be a part of healthcare plans.
They've already and we talked about this a few weeks ago.
They're dropping the price costs over the first six months.
Must stay right that they're trying to do all the

(05:49):
things I think when you have a pill form, because
that's the thing, right, like who gets to the g
LP pill first? And when you have a pill form
fail for a different drug, well, that puts uh that
red flat. Hey, this is another pill that has failed
for them, that's failed for them, We'll get to it first.

(06:10):
My assumption would probably be literally gets to the pill
form first, and that that changes a lot of things
into and if they can get the right price obviously
put that part of people's healthcare plans. Earners. What's up?
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