The Future of Crypto, Bitcoin, & Prediction Markets

In this insightful clip, Vlad Tenev, co-founder and CEO of Robinhood, sits down with Rashad Bilal to discuss the rapidly evolving world of crypto, the transformative potential of bitcoin, and how Robinhood is pioneering innovative prediction markets. Vlad explores the next decade of crypto, emphasizing its role in making high-quality U.S. financial tools accessible globally. He highlights how stablecoins, especially US dollar-based ones, have brought financial stability to people in countries with unreliable banking systems and unstable currencies. According to Vlad, the future lies in extending this access—with crypto and tokenization enabling users anywhere to invest in U.S. stocks and other global assets, leveling the financial playing field. When Rashad asks about bitcoin specifically, Vlad acknowledges its unique status and enduring influence, even as he remains bullish on the broader crypto ecosystem rather than being a “bitcoin maxi.” Vlad shares his thoughts on price predictions, noting the surprises in bitcoin’s journey and its deep-rooted prominence among enthusiasts. The conversation then pivots to Robinhood’s innovative prediction markets, where Vlad explains how Robinhood has quickly become a leader. From just one contract about the presidential election to over 1,500 diverse contracts, prediction markets have become the company’s fastest-growing business segment. These markets not only cover politics but also expand into sports and emerging fields like AI model performance, drawing in traders and market participants from traditional finance backgrounds. Vlad breaks down how prediction markets differ from traditional sports betting—enabling live, dynamic trading as events unfold, thus introducing a new "wagering" experience. This disrupts conventional betting and offers users a way to trade based on real-time market information, making sports betting companies reconsider their strategies. From AI to sports and elections, prediction markets are changing how information is shared and traded. Vlad predicts these markets will become a new, valuable source of crowd-sourced intelligence, enabling individuals to leverage their unique insights and move beyond conventional wisdom. Don’t miss this dynamic conversation about the intersection of technology, finance, and the future of trading. Vlad Tenev explains why Robinhood is defining a new wave of innovation—making global finance accessible and reimagining prediction markets for everyday traders. *Hashtags:* #Crypto #Bitcoin #Robinhood #VladTenev #PredictionMarkets #Stablecoins #Investing #FinanceInnovation #Tokenization #AI #SportsBetting #GlobalFinance #EYL #RashadBilal #FutureOfFinance

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Speaker 2 (00:43):
Where do you see crypto going? Because obviously that's a
major staple in you in what you guys have built
with Robin Hood in twenty twenty five, let's say twenty
thirty five, right, Yeah, where do you see crypto going?
And Bitcoin specifically?

Speaker 3 (00:58):
Yeah, I think the IU guest needle mover for crypto
is that it's going to help take the great things
we've built in the US and make them increasingly global
and available to investors all around the world. Some of
which haven't had access to these tools because I think

(01:19):
we kind of take it for granted here that we
have the US dollar, we have access to US stocks,
we have really high quality assets. When Robinhood gets our
private initiatives, we'll be able to distribute access to private companies,
so we have really good investments and ways to allocate
your capital. If you're in Venezuela, you don't have access

(01:39):
to those things. And that's actually why stable coins have
been so popular, because a lot of these people are
in countries that have unstable governments, unstable central banks. If
they do have central banks at all, they don't have
functional banking systems. Currencies are devaluing and they're just adding
zeros and zeros to them. Bills are worthless. So stable

(02:03):
coins really became popular as a way to store your
wealth and US dollars because you know, the crypto companies
actually went in and built local rails connecting to all
of these markets, so they've been plugged into the crypto system.
And I think crypto will evolve with tokenization to make

(02:26):
it easy to distribute US stocks and other investments overseas
as easily as stable coins have done it to dollars.
So I think that's the future. Crypto will sort of
like the technology will help stitch together all of the
markets that make it so that everyone is on a
level playing field outside the US as we are in here.

(02:47):
That's at least the future that we're working to build.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
So you believe in oh ecosystem, not just bitcoin, not
a Bitcoin maxie.

Speaker 3 (02:54):
I'm not a Bitcoin MAXI yeah, I mean I'm a
bitcoin fan, and I think bitcoin has an inherent advantage.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
Price prediction.

Speaker 3 (03:04):
Oh, price predictions are tough. I would tell you, I'm
pretty I'm pretty bull And if you told me at
the beginning of the year that there would be like
a national Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and all of these dats
and we would still be sitting here basically flat for
the year, maybe a little bit up, I'd be surprised.

(03:27):
It's got a lot going for it. It's a singular asset, right,
It'll always be the first, So I think I think
it's got a bit of a religion around it with
the Bitcoin maxis, and and that's hard to fight relative
to the other coins.

Speaker 1 (03:41):
Yeah, I think obviously, if you look at the correlation
between the rise of bitcoin getting up to one hundred
and twenty six thousand. You watch your stock also get
towards all time high around the same time. People feel
like there's a correlation there, But there's also a piece
that has helped the stock, and that's the predictive markets. Yeah,
so not only could you invest in coin, but you
could say, hey, I see it getting to one hundred

(04:03):
thousand by December thirty. First, talk about the role that
predictive markets is played, because we talked about it like
you were thinking about it. We were talking about the
probably market the last time we met in Miami, and
now predictive markets are a thing, a real thing that
I feel like you guys have adopted right away. Some
of the other people in the space, haven't. Ye're looking
at you guys like, this is a leader. Do we

(04:24):
need to add this? This is going to be disruptive.

Speaker 3 (04:27):
Yeah. Absolutely, And it's kind of a fun position for
me to be in because typically when you look at
crypto and all the other products we've added, I mean,
stock's probably the best example. We were like years after
the leaders, right, I mean, stocks went electronic in the eighties.
Basically you trade got started. The idea was to trade

(04:49):
stocks on the Apple Macintosh. Apple Macintosh had come out,
and these two guys got together in Palo Alto, California,
and we're like, what if we use the Apple macintalk
to trade stocks? And I think that was in nineteen
eighty two, which is pretty crazy, So we were multiple
decades late to the game for electronic trading in stocks.

(05:11):
Crypto started in two thousand and nine. We added crypto
to the platform in twenty seventeen. Actually, yeah, twenty eighteen
was when you could start trading it. So typically we've
had an approach where we come in after there's like
clarity that it's a real thing that people want, and
then we just bring our scale, lower costs, and you know,

(05:34):
better UX to the product. So prediction Markets is a
new one for us because we were kind of out
in front and then it's sort of like how do
we maintain our lead and market positioning and you know,
when we have a bunch of people coming after us.
It has surprised me that, you know, you have the
exchanges like Polly and Calshi, who have obviously been there

(05:54):
from the beginning, but like no other brokers has gotten
into it yet, no other broker of significant consequence, And
I think they're coming like they're seeing what we're doing
and they see that it's resonating with traders and just
with mass market retail. But yeah, I think we're also

(06:15):
moving and we're adding new innovations. I think the event
that we're gonna we're gonna unveil on the sixteenth is
is going to show some new things to people that
they haven't seen before. And it's the fastest growing business
that Robin Hood's had. You know, in the past year,
we've gone from one single contract, which is the presidential election,

(06:36):
to over fifteen hundred. We've gone from it's basically the
volume is doubled quarter over quarter. Q three had I
want to say, two point two million contracts, but then
October had two point five million, so more than Q
three put together. And then you had November. We announced

(06:59):
some November numbers, three billion contracts traded in November, which
is yeah, it's a thirty million revenue in a month.
So so three hundred and sixty million run rate if
you take the November numbers, which is a big ramp,
and I think you know it's it's it's just been

(07:21):
really resonating with the traders and sports betting sports a
big part of it, but the big part of what
we're doing is also diversifying the contracts. So it used
to be just elections and elections I think to me
is probably the most interesting. Then we added sports and
we've added a ton of leagues.

Speaker 2 (07:42):
There is it sports betting or like, what is it exactly?

Speaker 3 (07:47):
I liked most people I took to call it wagering.

Speaker 2 (07:51):
Wagering, Okay, I like the language there.

Speaker 3 (07:55):
I think it's different in all seriousness to sports bet
and a lot of people ask about, you know, how
is it different from a regulatory standpoint, from a product standpoint.
I think it's significantly different. And I haven't really done
much sports betting, But what people love about it is
you can actually trade these contracts during the game, so

(08:20):
you know, the because it's a two sided market, the
exchanges run the contracts while the games are happening, and
that's when the information's coming in. I mean, for example,
you can see how each play changes, changes the odds
and the outcomes, and you can go in and out

(08:40):
of the positions and a lot of the market participants
that are coming in both from the market maker side
and sort of like on the trading side, are the
same market participants that have been trading futures and equities.
So I think it's disruptive to sports betting, but I
see it as a fundamentally different animal and a better product,

(09:02):
which is why I think all the traditional sports betting
sites are so nervous about it, and they're just sort
of like, uh, yeah, they see the writing on the wall,
and they're they're working as hard as possible to figure
out their prediction market strategy, and some of them are
outright pivoting to prediction markets completely.

Speaker 1 (09:22):
As soon as you said the November's numbers went up,
I automatically thought NFL and its height constable in its height,
but it's not just sports and NBA. NBA is and
it is kicking off World Series is just about the end.

Speaker 3 (09:32):
Well, and we have I think we mentioned this earlier
AI model contracts, which you know is a space I
feel like I have some understanding of, and you have
traders that are specializing in very specific areas, and you know,
like four months ago, it was I think thirty five

(09:52):
percent chance that Gemini would have the best model by
the end of the year. Chad Gpt started the year ahead, right,
and you know, if you really for folks that really
kind of understood what was happening in the AI world,
it seemed like conventional wisdom was wrong. Right, you have Google,
who's on a steep trajectory, and they have all the data,

(10:16):
all the compute, they're highly motivated. I think now we
look at the Gemini release and it's like, well, it's
so obvious they had all these tools. But back then,
I think conventional wisdom was wrong. So I think for
a trader, it's going to open up more possibilities, and
you know, you can specialize in things because there's probably
at least one topic that each person understands better than

(10:39):
the average conventional wisdom. So I think it'll pull in
more traders. But I think the most interesting thing for
me is that it creates a new source of information.
It's almost like the new media or new news, or
instead of watching talking heads pontificating about what's going to happen,
you can just look at the market and then you'll
learn a little bit about what's likely or what's even

(11:02):
true in this world.

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