How To Win At NFL Player Props In 2025 (Episode 905 with Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, Cort Smith)
Adam Levitan, Mark Dankenbring, and Cort Smith assess the NFL Player Prop betting landscape ahead of the 2025 NFL Season, discussing everything they have learned from decades of player prop betting, how sportsbooks are adapting, and how they will apply this knowledge in the upcoming season.
In this episode, we discuss:
- Whether it’s better prioritize betting volume or ROI
- What level of performance does it take to update prior projections and baselines?
- Why are Best Ball and Redraft League impacting betting lines?
- What analysis has told us about our processes over the years?
- What days of the week do we find provide the biggest edges?
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
2:29 - How The Markets Have Changed
8:14 - Market Openers
12:12 - When to Place Bet
18:28 - Expanding Markets & What to Look For
22:52 - Updating Priors & Baselines
25:42 - Best Ball & Redraft Hype Carrying Over Into Markets
32:44 - Edges We Should Be Betting & Volume vs. ROI
35:22 - Alt/Long Shot Bets
37:17 - Analyzing ETR’s Results Over The Last Four Years
Want ETR on your team this season?
Our 2025 NFL Draft Kit Pro has you covered with:
- Draft Rankings & Tiers
- Research & Analysis Articles
- Draft Strategy Content
- In-Season Roster Management
- Trade Calculators
- Discord Community
Subscribe now at https://subscribe.establishtherun.com/nfldraftkitpro/
Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app now to draft your $20 Best Ball lineup to play for a share of $15 million—and get a second ticket to play FREE for a share of $15 million. That’s two chances to win big without ever setting your lineup again. Draft One, Get One—only on DraftKings. The Crown Is Yours.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT).
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Cardiac Cowboys
The heart was always off-limits to surgeons. Cutting into it spelled instant death for the patient. That is, until a ragtag group of doctors scattered across the Midwest and Texas decided to throw out the rule book. Working in makeshift laboratories and home garages, using medical devices made from scavenged machine parts and beer tubes, these men and women invented the field of open heart surgery. Odds are, someone you know is alive because of them. So why has history left them behind? Presented by Chris Pine, CARDIAC COWBOYS tells the gripping true story behind the birth of heart surgery, and the young, Greatest Generation doctors who made it happen. For years, they competed and feuded, racing to be the first, the best, and the most prolific. Some appeared on the cover of Time Magazine, operated on kings and advised presidents. Others ended up disgraced, penniless, and convicted of felonies. Together, they ignited a revolution in medicine, and changed the world.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.