December 1, 2025 • 26 mins
Ken Rosenthal recaps the latest AL East moves: the Orioles sign Ryan Helsley to be their closer. (Top of show)
(3:57) Right before Thanksgiving, the Blue Jays went big on Dylan Cease's durability.
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(7:19) From this morning's notes column: the Rays could be motivated to move Brandon Lowe.
(10:23) Inside Dish reveals Ken’s Winter Meetings storylines.
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(21:46) Grillin’ Ken answers your questions, including if the Braves could sign a QO FA, how free agent pitchers pay for procedures, the Yankees infield needs and where the Dodgers are lurking.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of the Fair Territory Extravaganza.
Monday Fair Territory Post Thanksgiving. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
I am Ken Rosendahl here with you for the next
I don't know, twenty five minutes or so. And this
is the week, the week when things generally generally start
to ramp up in Major League Baseball's off season. This
(00:24):
is the week leading to the Winter Meetings, and you
will see certainly increased conversation. Whether it leads to increased
results remains to be seen. Over the Thanksgiving holidays, starting
Thanksgiving Eve and going right through the weekend, we had
two reported signings. We're going to get into both of
them today. We're also going to get into kind of
a Winter Meetings preview. Biggest storylines that'll be in the
(00:46):
inside Dish. But let's start off with what happens over
the holiday because we haven't been on the air since then,
and start with the most recent signing, and that would
be the Orioles two year, twenty eight million dollar deal
for Ryan Helsley with an op out after the first year. Hellsley,
of course drew some interest as a starter as well.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
The Detroit Tigers.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Were among the teams looking at him as a starter,
But ultimately he goes back to the role in which
he is most familiar, a role in which he took
a step back last year, first with the Saint Louis
Cardinals and then.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Especially with the New York Mets.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
But his peripherals, his underlying metrics remained quite strong. He
throws hard. He is a guy that teams still believe in.
He had a good market quite obviously to get fourteen
million a year for two years, that's decent money for
a closer. Not what he would have gotten if he
had been a free agent after twenty twenty four, perhaps,
but still for Hellsley, a good outcome. Now for the Orioles,
(01:42):
this is the latest of several moves that they have
made this offseason.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
They have been I.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Would suggest the busiest team at least in terms of
results of any thus far. And I'll show you what
I'm talking about here, because they've already made four editions,
starting off with Andrew Kitsch. Remember they traded for him
from the Chicago Cubs, then exercised his option. They had
traded him to the Cubs and then brought him back
Leodi Taveres enters their center field mix now with Colton Kowser,
(02:12):
Taylor Ward, the big and controversial trade for Grayson Rodriguez,
and now Hellsley the closure that they needed with Felix
Bautista out for at least much of the season. They
still need to keep going with the bullpens particular, they
still need to round it out because basically they traded
most of their relievers, some of whom are becoming free
(02:32):
agents during last season. Now, the biggest thing with the Oriols,
the biggest thing that remains the biggest thing that has
haunted them since really last off season, is their lack
so far of a top of the rotation starting pitcher,
and frankly, I would like to see.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Them add more than one starter.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
But they definitely are team that we should watch for
the top of the free agent market. I'm talking about
from ber Valdez, Rangers Suarez perhaps to am I also,
they're a team to watch with regard to trades. This
is a team that if trades are made for starting pitchers,
if some of these guys become available, the Orioles should
be in that equation. There's also a guy I wrote
(03:15):
about today my notes called Cody Ponce, who is coming
back from Korea. I wrote that he's probably going to
get three years, thirty to forty million. That's the kind
of guy too, that the Orioles should look at as
maybe a secondary piece. So if they signed Valdez, for instance,
and Michaelias goes back with Valdez to the Houston Days
and then acquired Cody Ponce as well, they could do
(03:35):
that just by spending money not making any trades. That
would be an interesting combination for them. And of course
they also could remain active for a bat, perhaps in centerfield,
perhaps Kyle Tucker, another guy Michael Olias knows well from Houston.
He drafted Kyle Tucker with the fourth pick of the
twenty and fifteen draft. So that's the Orioles now sticking
(03:58):
in the Al East. The move that happened Thanksgiving Eve,
this one was rather fascinating too, even more fascinating than
the Hell's they move. And that's of course Dylan cease
to the Blue Jays cease seven years are reported two
hundred and ten million. There are deferrals in that deal,
as I reported, and then Mitch Bannen of The Athletic
followed with this, seeing the deferrals are expected to reduce
(04:20):
the present value AAV of the deal to around twenty
six million per year, still the largest pitching contract in
Blue Jay's history.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
So with the.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Deferrals, we probably should look at it if it's indeed
twenty six per year as more of a seven year,
one hundred and eighty two million dollar deal for Cease,
still really healthy, a really good deal for a guy
who always seems to have a lot of interest. People
love him in the industry, and yet his results at
(04:49):
times have been inconsistent. Top five cy Young Finisher twenty
twenty two and twenty twenty four, and yet the results,
as I just said, haven't always been there, and it's
curious to people why that happens. There are some reasons.
Keith Law has written about that for the athletic, but
Cease for any negatives you might have with him, the
(05:09):
positives is or the positives are, he always takes the ball.
Here's his bio one hundred and sixty ninth overall pick
in twenty fourteen, debut in twenty nineteen. Career milestones, five
straight seasons, thirty two plus starts. We'll get into that.
Al War leader in twenty twenty two. That's the year
he finished second in the cy Young five straight seasons,
(05:29):
two hundred strikeouts, that's impressive.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
And then here he.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Is in twenty twenty five, and this is what I'm
talking about. Four point five to five era on a
team in which Nick Pivetta pitched really well and had
a good ra but Cease, for whatever reasons, didn't have that.
He wasn't great out of the stretch, just seems to
give up hits at inopportune times at points in his career.
But I want to show you the durability because this,
(05:54):
to me, is the thing that recommends Dylan sees the
most since twenty twenty one when he really became I'm
a regular starter most games started in the last five seasons.
And here's what's interesting about this chart. Ceese, Burrios and Gosman.
What team do they all play for? The Toronto Blue Jays.
They're the top three on this list, well, Gosmin tied
(06:14):
with Logan Webb and Patrick Corbyn. But the Jays have
assembled a group of guys who should pitch, should take
the ball. Treya Savage next season likely will be on
some kind of innings limit he'll still be only a rookie.
And then you have as well as Shane Bieber first
full season off Tommy John I don't know if you
can expect him to go two hundred and twenty five innings.
(06:36):
So the Jays are in really good shape here with
their rotation, and the question then becomes, what are they
going to do next, because this is a team that
really has a variety of ways they can go. Is
it going to be Boba Schett, Is it going to
be Kyle Tucker? Most likely we will see them get
a reliever of some ilk, whether it's Edwin Diaz or
(06:56):
Pete Fairbanks, someone along those lines.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Devin Williams.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
We'll talk more about the relievers as we go on here,
but the Blue Jays obviously quite eager to defend their
American League championship and quite eager to get where they
did not get this season, even though they were just
two outs away their first World Series title.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Since nineteen ninety three.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
One of the things sticking with the Al East I
mentioned this in my notes column today, it's about the
Tampa Bay Rays. Now, the Rays are not going to
be as active as the Blue Jays and the Orioles
and the Yankees and.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
The Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
But the Rays are a team that will make moves.
We know that they always seem to make moves, and
Brandon Lao coming up on the last year of his
contract at eleven point five million. They've talked about trading
him for several years now, and this maybe will be
the year they do it given the need that some
teams have for a left handed hitting middle infielder. That's
(07:52):
what Lao is and one of the better ones in
the game when healthy. Brandon Lao is number three on
the Rays all time home runless But let's not get
too sentimental when we're talking about raised players. They're willing
to trade them at any point. So Brandon Lao could go.
The Rays then would be left with a whole second
base that they don't really have an internal solution for.
(08:14):
But here's a guy that would fit for Pittsburgh, a
team that's more likely in my opinion, to get their
left handed bats making trades then signing free agents. San
Francisco needs a second base and there are other teams
that could be in this mix as well. The Athletics
are also looking for second base and third base potentially,
so there are three teams in the Al East, and
(08:35):
we haven't even talked about the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
We're going to get more into them as we go
along here.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
The Red Sox already have made a big move for
Sonny Gray, seemingly solving their biggest rotation need. I would
still like to see them get one more and then
we have.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
To see what they're going to do with their bats.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Are they going to trade them or I'm talking about
some other outfielders. Are they going to go resign Alex Gregman.
Are they going to be other.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Bats in their mix?
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Sean mccatton of Masslive dot com reporting over the weekend,
they may have some payroll restrictions. Every team talks about
payroll restrictions this time of year. They're building in the excuses.
But anyway, we will be back with more on the
Yankees in particular, and a lot of other winter storylines
when we come.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Back with the Inside Dish after this KP.
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Speaker 5 (10:24):
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Speaker 1 (10:30):
All right, time now for the inside Dish, and as promised,
we're going to take you through the top five storylines
leading to the Winter Meetings. This will apply, of course
to the Winter Meetings, but this is the.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Stuff to watch.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
And we'll start at the top of the free agent market,
Kyle Tucker and even Cody Bellinger. Let's talk about the
biggest bats available. Tucker is a guy we haven't heard
much about so far. Doesn't mean there's not a lot
happening with him, and you're going to see teams jump
out for him, and they're going to team be teams
that jump out for And there are other bats in
this market as well, Schwarber and Bashett and Bregman. But
(11:05):
Tucker and Bellinger both left handed hitters, both outfielders for
the most part. Bellinger, of course, can play first base
as well. These are perhaps the two most interesting guys,
and the New York Yankees should be in the middle
of both of them, at least, talking about Bellinger at
the very very least.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Now here's Tucker.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
He is a guy who is just twenty eight years
old as of right now. He'll be twenty nine in January.
Four time All Star, two times Silver Slugger. We know
who Kyle Tucker is a five tool player, and there's
been debate among certain segments of the Yankee fan base
and the athletics. Chris Kershner has wrote about this as well.
Is he a better fit for the Yankees than Cody Bellinger.
(11:45):
It seems to me the Yankees are more inclined to
sign Bellinger. And you look at his vitals right there.
Here's a guy that has had an up and down career,
but lately back on the upswing seat, twenty seventeen Rookie
of the Year, twenty eighteen NLCSMVTY nineteen NLMVP, twenty twenty
World Series Champion, and in the last two seasons has
re established himself after you remember getting non tendered by
(12:09):
the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger is in many ways a perfect
fit for the Yankees. Now, he is not the better player.
Kyle Tucker is the better player. And yes, Tucker has
had some injuries the past two seasons and it's raised
some doubts about him, but they've been kind of flukish
and he is an all around type of guy, as
is Cody Bellinger. So I expect Tucker to do better,
(12:31):
and I expect the Yankees, if they don't end up
with Bellinger, to be scrambling a little bit because I
don't know that they want to pay Tucker. The ideal
situation for the Yankees my opinion here is sign Bellinger,
sign in my the Japanese right handed pitcher who is
just twenty eight years old, and then sign maybe a closer.
I don't know which one it would be. But if
(12:52):
they do all that, they're having a pretty good offseason.
So Tucker and Bellinger, it's going to be interesting to
see how these guys land.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
For sure, will.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Tucker get the four hundred million, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
We're gonna have to see how that all plays out.
All right.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
Now, the NL East, that's another interesting storyline here because
of all the action taking place with the top contenders.
I'm talking about the Mets, the Braves, and the Phillies.
Let's start with the Mets because they are maybe the
most interesting team going right now due to the uncertainty
of their roster. Now they've made the trade Brandon Neimo
from Marcus Simion, Pete Alonzo and Edwin Diaz still free agents.
(13:30):
They supposedly want to retain them, but as we've seen,
and as Will Simon has written about in The Athletic,
their level of sentiment goes only so far. They were
willing to trade Nemo, who was a career met, a
guy that was really beloved by the fan base in
many ways. If they don't resign Alonzo, if they don't
resign Diaz, at this point, I don't know that it
can be considered a surprise.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
But then the question becomes.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
Then, what what are the Mets going to do? They
need starting pitching. We all know that even if they
don't trade code Single, which I expect they will, they're
going to need to sign a big starter for sure,
maybe get another one in some other way, and that's
where they really.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Need to put their focus.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
They lose Diaz, they need a closer as well. Maybe
it's Devin Williams, maybe it's someone else. But they're a
team that you would expect is going to be quite
active now. The Phillies are also a fascinating team because,
like the Mets, they do not want to keep the
same mix. It hasn't worked, or at least it hasn't
resulted in a World Series title. Kyle Schwarber, JT Real
(14:33):
Muto their biggest free agents. If they resign them, Okay,
but that's the same group, and maybe you feel like
you want to shake it up a little bit. Trading
Alec Bohm would be one way to do it, but
Schwarber is a guy that is so valuable to them.
I can't see them losing the hymn and going forward
in the same way unless they feel, Okay, we lose Schwarber,
(14:55):
we get Kyle Tucker, and maybe they are a dark
horse for Kyle Tucker in that regard.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Then there are the Atlanta Braves.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
Now, the Atlanta Braves already have re signed Racil Iglesias,
They've traded for Mauricio Dubon, but we are waiting for
bigger things from them, and Iglesias fills a need for
sure the closer role. But they've been a team that
has been interested in adding not only a shortstop but
also a starting pitcher. They're also a team with a chairman,
(15:24):
Terry McGirk, who has said we anticipate being a top
five pay roll team. He's not crying poor like the
Yankees even the Red Sox to an extent, He's saying, hey,
we should be top five. If that's the case, they
should be spending and spending big. We'll see what the
Atlanta Braves do. And then the Miami Marlins. The Marlins
are a team that has been active, at least in
(15:46):
talking about free agents. Let's see what the action results in.
All right, Now, a couple of other things to get
to here. Best remaining free agent closures. We touched on
this a little bit. Edwin Diaz is the top guy
in the market, is saddled with the qualifying offer, and
I wonder how much that is going to affect things
for him. Let's say the Mets go in another direction.
(16:06):
Let's say the Blue Jays go in another direction. Well,
then what is it for Edwin Diaz? Where is his team?
I'm always hesitant to talk like that because there are
always teams in the mix.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
But will he get what he is seeking, which.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Is essentially the same deal he had been on five years,
one hundred and two million before opting out? Other closers
we've talked about then Devin Williams, Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks,
and then there was a whole nother tier talking about
guys like Luke Weaver, Emilio Pagan, even Tyler Rogers. Not
a closer, but these are quality late inning relievers, guys
that teams will want and I would expect get paid
(16:41):
fairly well.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
So the release.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Market is one to watch for sure, as is. As
we move on here, the starting pitching market. Now we've
touched on this as well from Bravaldez thirty two years old.
That's the only thing against him, well not maybe not
the only thing. He's had some questions about his clubhouse
presence as well well the kind of teammate he is.
But he is a guy that's been remarkably consistent. He's
(17:04):
a sinker baller. He's the kind of pitcher you would
want to have. He's fairly durable as well. So Valdez
I expect will be up around cease territory, whether you
consider it one hundred and eighty two million in present
value or to ten with the deferrals whatever, he's going
to do well. Maybe he doesn't get the years, but
in terms of aav that's what I'm talking about with
(17:25):
regard to cease am. I his posting is up on
January tewod so I don't expect we'll see him sign
the winter meetings probably.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Will be Christmas week for him.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
But he's a guy that is a little bit bigger
than Yamamoto, but not much, and he's had success over
in Japan of course, you see his twenty twenty five
stats there one point nine to two era one hundred
and seventy eighth strikeouts and one hundred and sixty three and
two thirds innings. He's a guy the teams want, and
it's going to be interesting to see where he goes.
Because over the weekend there was a report by Buster
(17:56):
Only a ESPN saying the Giants, a team that had
been link to am I, are really looking at lower
cost options.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yankee fans immediately jumped on this thing. He's there for us. Again.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
I caution you ever against saying well, it's only one
team involved. I'm sure there are other teams looking at
am I as well. So that's the starting pitching market.
And finally, the other part of the starting pitching market,
which is trades. Now we've talked a lot about Derek
Scoubel and Freddie Peralta and Joe Ryan and Sandy al
(18:28):
Cantra and Edward Cabrera, all these guys that could repeat
could be traded. But the way it was described to
me by an executive over the weekend is that in
the cases of Schooble and Peralta and maybe even Ryan,
but Schooble and Peralta, for sure, they're not going to
be traded unless their teams get really pushed, their teams
(18:50):
are not motivated to trade them. Now, could that change
once the free agents are off the board and certain
teams are more desperate. Yes, and I expect that at
the winter meetings, if not before. You're going to see
reports of teams trying to push on schooble In Peralta
and Joe Ryan as well. But that doesn't mean they're
(19:10):
going to get traded. We hear this all the time.
We see this all the time. Teams take interest in
players the entertain offers, but they don't necessarily trade them.
The Tigers are trying to win with Trek Scoobel, The
Brewers are trying to win with Freddy Peralta.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
The Twins are a.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Separate case because I don't know what the heck they're doing.
I'm not sure they know what the heck they're doing,
as they are just coming off this situation where they
sold part of the team to investors to basically pay
down their debt. What that means for the payroll we
don't know yet. We don't know if they will want
to trade Joe Ryan or if at the other end
(19:47):
of the spectrum they'll want to maybe build up a
little bit and put a better product on the field,
since they've already alienated their fan base to a great extent.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
So all of this.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
With regard to the starting pitching market in which pictures
I get traded, should be clearer after the free agent
sign but maybe it starts and the talk starts even
before that. I do not expect that pitchers like Trek
Scooble and Freddie Peralta will be out of the headlines
just because their teams are presently saying we're not really
going to trade them.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
All right.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
That is it for the inside dish. Now catch Foul
Territory Live from the Winter Meetings in Orlando Monday through
Wednesday at one pm Eastern on the ftutube channel. Expect
big name guests joining Scott Brown, AJ Prazinski, and Eric
Kratz all three days. Subscribe on YouTube, rate five stars,
wherever you get your podcasts to the entire Foul Territory network.
(20:41):
We'll be back with BILLI and Ken your questions right
after this.
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Time now for Grill and Ken.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Let's get to your questions.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
First one comes from Tyler Max Smith, who asks does
the braves landing an extra draft pick from Baldwin's Rookie
of the Year Award make them more or less likely
to sign a qualifying off for free agent. That's a
good question, and I would say the answer is more
likely because if you sign a qualifying off for free agent,
you lose a draft pick, but at the same time,
(22:19):
at the same time, you gain one from the compensation.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
That results from the Rookie of the Year awards.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
So I would expect that, Yes, the Braves would be
more likely to do that. Yes they want to keep
their picks. All teams do, but that to me would
seem to be the way to go. So let's see
what happens there now.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Next question.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
This one comes from Harold Garb on Instagram, who says,
who pays for a free agent that undergoes a surgical
procedure his former team or himself. A free agent undergoing
a surgical procedure would obviously have to do it himself.
I would think his former team is not responded at
(23:00):
that point, he is not under contract to that team.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
But it's pretty rare.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
When we see free agents undergo surgeries.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
While they are on the open market.
Speaker 1 (23:09):
I can't even remember the last time that happened, so
I wouldn't think that that is a thing. It's a
good question, and it's a legitimate question, because of course
players would want to get that taken care of before
they are, in theory unemployed, but it just doesn't happen
all that often. All right, next question, Let's see what
this one is. This one comes from Peter Ross nineteen
(23:33):
oh seven, who asks Yankees are interested in a new
second basement and what relievers are they in on. I
don't expect the Yankees aren't necessarily interested in his second basement.
They've got jass Chishom Junior to play that position. That's
his preferred position. Third base is a different story to
some extent, but they've got Ryan McMahon there, so I
don't know why the Yankees would be looking at second
(23:54):
or third base. Shortstop is the question with them, with
Volty coming off surgery and Josey Cabaio being more of
a utility player. I would expect they'll start the season
with Caballero and then go to Volpi.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Once he is healthy.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
There just aren't a lot of good shortstops available at
the present time, so that is where the Yankees are
with their infield relievers. I don't know exactly where they're
going to go there, and they're I'm sure looking at
all the top closers out there and talking to all
of them, from Devin Williams to Edwin Diaz, all of them.
(24:28):
But price is going to be a question, and it's
going to be a question of just how they want
to do it, because they've got David bednoin now, they
acquired him in the trade, so they don't need.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Necessarily a ninth inning guy. Maybe one of those.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
Lesser relievers that I talked about, lesser in terms of
name valued, Milio Pagan, one of those guys Tyler Rodgers
that is more appealing to them. Samuel Rotiz three four
three nine, ask, good morning, what's up with the Dodgers?
What are they up to?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Good question? As always, The Dodgers are a.
Speaker 1 (24:57):
Team that, in the terms of one executive, like to
hang around the backboard, And what I mean by that
is they like to see the market develop and then
they kind of say, Okay, if we can get this
kind of short term deal, we'll take him.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
If not, we'll pass.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
They are looking at relievers along those lines. One year
guy I can see making sense for them, even though
they've got Tanner Scott under contract still and let's see
if they become a player for Kyle Tucker or someone
else whose market might not develop to the extent that
that player wants. I don't think it's going to happen
that way with Tucker, but they.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Could use Kyle Tucker for sure.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
And they're a team that I expect is going to
do something. I don't know exactly what it is, but
it's very difficult to bring the same team back, especially
when you've got.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
So many older players.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
It doesn't always work the way you want it. You
want to change up the mix a little bit. I
do expect that they're going to do that.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
All right.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
With that, I want to thank everyone for watching, for listening.
Foul Territory coming up Zach Britten, SCHIDAVIDI, and Bob Kendrick
from the Negro League's Hall of Fame on the Show
Today with Eric kratz, Aj Prazinski and Scott Brown. Fair
Territory returns Thursday at twelve thirty Eastern. Have a great week, everyone,
Talk to you then.
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Welcome everyone to the Monday edition of the Fair Territory Extravaganza.
Monday Fair Territory Post Thanksgiving. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.
I am Ken Rosendahl here with you for the next
I don't know, twenty five minutes or so. And this
is the week, the week when things generally generally start
to ramp up in Major League Baseball's off season. This
(00:24):
is the week leading to the Winter Meetings, and you
will see certainly increased conversation. Whether it leads to increased
results remains to be seen. Over the Thanksgiving holidays, starting
Thanksgiving Eve and going right through the weekend, we had
two reported signings. We're going to get into both of
them today. We're also going to get into kind of
a Winter Meetings preview. Biggest storylines that'll be in the
(00:46):
inside Dish. But let's start off with what happens over
the holiday because we haven't been on the air since then,
and start with the most recent signing, and that would
be the Orioles two year, twenty eight million dollar deal
for Ryan Helsley with an op out after the first year. Hellsley,
of course drew some interest as a starter as well.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
The Detroit Tigers.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Were among the teams looking at him as a starter,
But ultimately he goes back to the role in which
he is most familiar, a role in which he took
a step back last year, first with the Saint Louis
Cardinals and then.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Especially with the New York Mets.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
But his peripherals, his underlying metrics remained quite strong. He
throws hard. He is a guy that teams still believe in.
He had a good market quite obviously to get fourteen
million a year for two years, that's decent money for
a closer. Not what he would have gotten if he
had been a free agent after twenty twenty four, perhaps,
but still for Hellsley, a good outcome. Now for the Orioles,
(01:42):
this is the latest of several moves that they have
made this offseason.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
They have been I.
Speaker 1 (01:49):
Would suggest the busiest team at least in terms of
results of any thus far. And I'll show you what
I'm talking about here, because they've already made four editions,
starting off with Andrew Kitsch. Remember they traded for him
from the Chicago Cubs, then exercised his option. They had
traded him to the Cubs and then brought him back
Leodi Taveres enters their center field mix now with Colton Kowser,
(02:12):
Taylor Ward, the big and controversial trade for Grayson Rodriguez,
and now Hellsley the closure that they needed with Felix
Bautista out for at least much of the season. They
still need to keep going with the bullpens particular, they
still need to round it out because basically they traded
most of their relievers, some of whom are becoming free
(02:32):
agents during last season. Now, the biggest thing with the Oriols,
the biggest thing that remains the biggest thing that has
haunted them since really last off season, is their lack
so far of a top of the rotation starting pitcher,
and frankly, I would like to see.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Them add more than one starter.
Speaker 1 (02:51):
But they definitely are team that we should watch for
the top of the free agent market. I'm talking about
from ber Valdez, Rangers Suarez perhaps to am I also,
they're a team to watch with regard to trades. This
is a team that if trades are made for starting pitchers,
if some of these guys become available, the Orioles should
be in that equation. There's also a guy I wrote
(03:15):
about today my notes called Cody Ponce, who is coming
back from Korea. I wrote that he's probably going to
get three years, thirty to forty million. That's the kind
of guy too, that the Orioles should look at as
maybe a secondary piece. So if they signed Valdez, for instance,
and Michaelias goes back with Valdez to the Houston Days
and then acquired Cody Ponce as well, they could do
(03:35):
that just by spending money not making any trades. That
would be an interesting combination for them. And of course
they also could remain active for a bat, perhaps in centerfield,
perhaps Kyle Tucker, another guy Michael Olias knows well from Houston.
He drafted Kyle Tucker with the fourth pick of the
twenty and fifteen draft. So that's the Orioles now sticking
(03:58):
in the Al East. The move that happened Thanksgiving Eve,
this one was rather fascinating too, even more fascinating than
the Hell's they move. And that's of course Dylan cease
to the Blue Jays cease seven years are reported two
hundred and ten million. There are deferrals in that deal,
as I reported, and then Mitch Bannen of The Athletic
followed with this, seeing the deferrals are expected to reduce
(04:20):
the present value AAV of the deal to around twenty
six million per year, still the largest pitching contract in
Blue Jay's history.
Speaker 2 (04:28):
So with the.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Deferrals, we probably should look at it if it's indeed
twenty six per year as more of a seven year,
one hundred and eighty two million dollar deal for Cease,
still really healthy, a really good deal for a guy
who always seems to have a lot of interest. People
love him in the industry, and yet his results at
(04:49):
times have been inconsistent. Top five cy Young Finisher twenty
twenty two and twenty twenty four, and yet the results,
as I just said, haven't always been there, and it's
curious to people why that happens. There are some reasons.
Keith Law has written about that for the athletic, but
Cease for any negatives you might have with him, the
(05:09):
positives is or the positives are, he always takes the ball.
Here's his bio one hundred and sixty ninth overall pick
in twenty fourteen, debut in twenty nineteen. Career milestones, five
straight seasons, thirty two plus starts. We'll get into that.
Al War leader in twenty twenty two. That's the year
he finished second in the cy Young five straight seasons,
(05:29):
two hundred strikeouts, that's impressive.
Speaker 2 (05:31):
And then here he.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
Is in twenty twenty five, and this is what I'm
talking about. Four point five to five era on a
team in which Nick Pivetta pitched really well and had
a good ra but Cease, for whatever reasons, didn't have that.
He wasn't great out of the stretch, just seems to
give up hits at inopportune times at points in his career.
But I want to show you the durability because this,
(05:54):
to me, is the thing that recommends Dylan sees the
most since twenty twenty one when he really became I'm
a regular starter most games started in the last five seasons.
And here's what's interesting about this chart. Ceese, Burrios and Gosman.
What team do they all play for? The Toronto Blue Jays.
They're the top three on this list, well, Gosmin tied
(06:14):
with Logan Webb and Patrick Corbyn. But the Jays have
assembled a group of guys who should pitch, should take
the ball. Treya Savage next season likely will be on
some kind of innings limit he'll still be only a rookie.
And then you have as well as Shane Bieber first
full season off Tommy John I don't know if you
can expect him to go two hundred and twenty five innings.
(06:36):
So the Jays are in really good shape here with
their rotation, and the question then becomes, what are they
going to do next, because this is a team that
really has a variety of ways they can go. Is
it going to be Boba Schett, Is it going to
be Kyle Tucker? Most likely we will see them get
a reliever of some ilk, whether it's Edwin Diaz or
(06:56):
Pete Fairbanks, someone along those lines.
Speaker 2 (06:59):
Devin Williams.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
We'll talk more about the relievers as we go on here,
but the Blue Jays obviously quite eager to defend their
American League championship and quite eager to get where they
did not get this season, even though they were just
two outs away their first World Series title.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Since nineteen ninety three.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
One of the things sticking with the Al East I
mentioned this in my notes column today, it's about the
Tampa Bay Rays. Now, the Rays are not going to
be as active as the Blue Jays and the Orioles
and the Yankees and.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
The Red Sox.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
But the Rays are a team that will make moves.
We know that they always seem to make moves, and
Brandon Lao coming up on the last year of his
contract at eleven point five million. They've talked about trading
him for several years now, and this maybe will be
the year they do it given the need that some
teams have for a left handed hitting middle infielder. That's
(07:52):
what Lao is and one of the better ones in
the game when healthy. Brandon Lao is number three on
the Rays all time home runless But let's not get
too sentimental when we're talking about raised players. They're willing
to trade them at any point. So Brandon Lao could go.
The Rays then would be left with a whole second
base that they don't really have an internal solution for.
(08:14):
But here's a guy that would fit for Pittsburgh, a
team that's more likely in my opinion, to get their
left handed bats making trades then signing free agents. San
Francisco needs a second base and there are other teams
that could be in this mix as well. The Athletics
are also looking for second base and third base potentially,
so there are three teams in the Al East, and
(08:35):
we haven't even talked about the Yankees and the Red Sox.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
We're going to get more into them as we go
along here.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
The Red Sox already have made a big move for
Sonny Gray, seemingly solving their biggest rotation need. I would
still like to see them get one more and then
we have.
Speaker 2 (08:50):
To see what they're going to do with their bats.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
Are they going to trade them or I'm talking about
some other outfielders. Are they going to go resign Alex Gregman.
Are they going to be other.
Speaker 2 (08:59):
Bats in their mix?
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Sean mccatton of Masslive dot com reporting over the weekend,
they may have some payroll restrictions. Every team talks about
payroll restrictions this time of year. They're building in the excuses.
But anyway, we will be back with more on the
Yankees in particular, and a lot of other winter storylines
when we come.
Speaker 2 (09:19):
Back with the Inside Dish after this KP.
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Speaker 5 (10:24):
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Speaker 1 (10:30):
All right, time now for the inside Dish, and as promised,
we're going to take you through the top five storylines
leading to the Winter Meetings. This will apply, of course
to the Winter Meetings, but this is the.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Stuff to watch.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
And we'll start at the top of the free agent market,
Kyle Tucker and even Cody Bellinger. Let's talk about the
biggest bats available. Tucker is a guy we haven't heard
much about so far. Doesn't mean there's not a lot
happening with him, and you're going to see teams jump
out for him, and they're going to team be teams
that jump out for And there are other bats in
this market as well, Schwarber and Bashett and Bregman. But
(11:05):
Tucker and Bellinger both left handed hitters, both outfielders for
the most part. Bellinger, of course, can play first base
as well. These are perhaps the two most interesting guys,
and the New York Yankees should be in the middle
of both of them, at least, talking about Bellinger at
the very very least.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Now here's Tucker.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
He is a guy who is just twenty eight years
old as of right now. He'll be twenty nine in January.
Four time All Star, two times Silver Slugger. We know
who Kyle Tucker is a five tool player, and there's
been debate among certain segments of the Yankee fan base
and the athletics. Chris Kershner has wrote about this as well.
Is he a better fit for the Yankees than Cody Bellinger.
(11:45):
It seems to me the Yankees are more inclined to
sign Bellinger. And you look at his vitals right there.
Here's a guy that has had an up and down career,
but lately back on the upswing seat, twenty seventeen Rookie
of the Year, twenty eighteen NLCSMVTY nineteen NLMVP, twenty twenty
World Series Champion, and in the last two seasons has
re established himself after you remember getting non tendered by
(12:09):
the Dodgers. Cody Bellinger is in many ways a perfect
fit for the Yankees. Now, he is not the better player.
Kyle Tucker is the better player. And yes, Tucker has
had some injuries the past two seasons and it's raised
some doubts about him, but they've been kind of flukish
and he is an all around type of guy, as
is Cody Bellinger. So I expect Tucker to do better,
(12:31):
and I expect the Yankees, if they don't end up
with Bellinger, to be scrambling a little bit because I
don't know that they want to pay Tucker. The ideal
situation for the Yankees my opinion here is sign Bellinger,
sign in my the Japanese right handed pitcher who is
just twenty eight years old, and then sign maybe a closer.
I don't know which one it would be. But if
(12:52):
they do all that, they're having a pretty good offseason.
So Tucker and Bellinger, it's going to be interesting to
see how these guys land.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
For sure, will.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Tucker get the four hundred million, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
We're gonna have to see how that all plays out.
All right.
Speaker 1 (13:06):
Now, the NL East, that's another interesting storyline here because
of all the action taking place with the top contenders.
I'm talking about the Mets, the Braves, and the Phillies.
Let's start with the Mets because they are maybe the
most interesting team going right now due to the uncertainty
of their roster. Now they've made the trade Brandon Neimo
from Marcus Simion, Pete Alonzo and Edwin Diaz still free agents.
(13:30):
They supposedly want to retain them, but as we've seen,
and as Will Simon has written about in The Athletic,
their level of sentiment goes only so far. They were
willing to trade Nemo, who was a career met, a
guy that was really beloved by the fan base in
many ways. If they don't resign Alonzo, if they don't
resign Diaz, at this point, I don't know that it
can be considered a surprise.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
But then the question becomes.
Speaker 1 (13:53):
Then, what what are the Mets going to do? They
need starting pitching. We all know that even if they
don't trade code Single, which I expect they will, they're
going to need to sign a big starter for sure,
maybe get another one in some other way, and that's
where they really.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Need to put their focus.
Speaker 1 (14:10):
They lose Diaz, they need a closer as well. Maybe
it's Devin Williams, maybe it's someone else. But they're a
team that you would expect is going to be quite
active now. The Phillies are also a fascinating team because,
like the Mets, they do not want to keep the
same mix. It hasn't worked, or at least it hasn't
resulted in a World Series title. Kyle Schwarber, JT Real
(14:33):
Muto their biggest free agents. If they resign them, Okay,
but that's the same group, and maybe you feel like
you want to shake it up a little bit. Trading
Alec Bohm would be one way to do it, but
Schwarber is a guy that is so valuable to them.
I can't see them losing the hymn and going forward
in the same way unless they feel, Okay, we lose Schwarber,
(14:55):
we get Kyle Tucker, and maybe they are a dark
horse for Kyle Tucker in that regard.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Then there are the Atlanta Braves.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
Now, the Atlanta Braves already have re signed Racil Iglesias,
They've traded for Mauricio Dubon, but we are waiting for
bigger things from them, and Iglesias fills a need for
sure the closer role. But they've been a team that
has been interested in adding not only a shortstop but
also a starting pitcher. They're also a team with a chairman,
(15:24):
Terry McGirk, who has said we anticipate being a top
five pay roll team. He's not crying poor like the
Yankees even the Red Sox to an extent, He's saying, hey,
we should be top five. If that's the case, they
should be spending and spending big. We'll see what the
Atlanta Braves do. And then the Miami Marlins. The Marlins
are a team that has been active, at least in
(15:46):
talking about free agents. Let's see what the action results in.
All right, Now, a couple of other things to get
to here. Best remaining free agent closures. We touched on
this a little bit. Edwin Diaz is the top guy
in the market, is saddled with the qualifying offer, and
I wonder how much that is going to affect things
for him. Let's say the Mets go in another direction.
(16:06):
Let's say the Blue Jays go in another direction. Well,
then what is it for Edwin Diaz? Where is his team?
I'm always hesitant to talk like that because there are
always teams in the mix.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
But will he get what he is seeking, which.
Speaker 1 (16:18):
Is essentially the same deal he had been on five years,
one hundred and two million before opting out? Other closers
we've talked about then Devin Williams, Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks,
and then there was a whole nother tier talking about
guys like Luke Weaver, Emilio Pagan, even Tyler Rogers. Not
a closer, but these are quality late inning relievers, guys
that teams will want and I would expect get paid
(16:41):
fairly well.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
So the release.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Market is one to watch for sure, as is. As
we move on here, the starting pitching market. Now we've
touched on this as well from Bravaldez thirty two years old.
That's the only thing against him, well not maybe not
the only thing. He's had some questions about his clubhouse
presence as well well the kind of teammate he is.
But he is a guy that's been remarkably consistent. He's
(17:04):
a sinker baller. He's the kind of pitcher you would
want to have. He's fairly durable as well. So Valdez
I expect will be up around cease territory, whether you
consider it one hundred and eighty two million in present
value or to ten with the deferrals whatever, he's going
to do well. Maybe he doesn't get the years, but
in terms of aav that's what I'm talking about with
(17:25):
regard to cease am. I his posting is up on
January tewod so I don't expect we'll see him sign
the winter meetings probably.
Speaker 2 (17:33):
Will be Christmas week for him.
Speaker 1 (17:35):
But he's a guy that is a little bit bigger
than Yamamoto, but not much, and he's had success over
in Japan of course, you see his twenty twenty five
stats there one point nine to two era one hundred
and seventy eighth strikeouts and one hundred and sixty three and
two thirds innings. He's a guy the teams want, and
it's going to be interesting to see where he goes.
Because over the weekend there was a report by Buster
(17:56):
Only a ESPN saying the Giants, a team that had
been link to am I, are really looking at lower
cost options.
Speaker 2 (18:03):
Yankee fans immediately jumped on this thing. He's there for us. Again.
Speaker 1 (18:08):
I caution you ever against saying well, it's only one
team involved. I'm sure there are other teams looking at
am I as well. So that's the starting pitching market.
And finally, the other part of the starting pitching market,
which is trades. Now we've talked a lot about Derek
Scoubel and Freddie Peralta and Joe Ryan and Sandy al
(18:28):
Cantra and Edward Cabrera, all these guys that could repeat
could be traded. But the way it was described to
me by an executive over the weekend is that in
the cases of Schooble and Peralta and maybe even Ryan,
but Schooble and Peralta, for sure, they're not going to
be traded unless their teams get really pushed, their teams
(18:50):
are not motivated to trade them. Now, could that change
once the free agents are off the board and certain
teams are more desperate. Yes, and I expect that at
the winter meetings, if not before. You're going to see
reports of teams trying to push on schooble In Peralta
and Joe Ryan as well. But that doesn't mean they're
(19:10):
going to get traded. We hear this all the time.
We see this all the time. Teams take interest in
players the entertain offers, but they don't necessarily trade them.
The Tigers are trying to win with Trek Scoobel, The
Brewers are trying to win with Freddy Peralta.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
The Twins are a.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Separate case because I don't know what the heck they're doing.
I'm not sure they know what the heck they're doing,
as they are just coming off this situation where they
sold part of the team to investors to basically pay
down their debt. What that means for the payroll we
don't know yet. We don't know if they will want
to trade Joe Ryan or if at the other end
(19:47):
of the spectrum they'll want to maybe build up a
little bit and put a better product on the field,
since they've already alienated their fan base to a great extent.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
So all of this.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
With regard to the starting pitching market in which pictures
I get traded, should be clearer after the free agent
sign but maybe it starts and the talk starts even
before that. I do not expect that pitchers like Trek
Scooble and Freddie Peralta will be out of the headlines
just because their teams are presently saying we're not really
going to trade them.
Speaker 2 (20:18):
All right.
Speaker 1 (20:18):
That is it for the inside dish. Now catch Foul
Territory Live from the Winter Meetings in Orlando Monday through
Wednesday at one pm Eastern on the ftutube channel. Expect
big name guests joining Scott Brown, AJ Prazinski, and Eric
Kratz all three days. Subscribe on YouTube, rate five stars,
wherever you get your podcasts to the entire Foul Territory network.
(20:41):
We'll be back with BILLI and Ken your questions right
after this.
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Time now for Grill and Ken.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
Let's get to your questions.
Speaker 1 (21:57):
First one comes from Tyler Max Smith, who asks does
the braves landing an extra draft pick from Baldwin's Rookie
of the Year Award make them more or less likely
to sign a qualifying off for free agent. That's a
good question, and I would say the answer is more
likely because if you sign a qualifying off for free agent,
you lose a draft pick, but at the same time,
(22:19):
at the same time, you gain one from the compensation.
Speaker 2 (22:23):
That results from the Rookie of the Year awards.
Speaker 1 (22:26):
So I would expect that, Yes, the Braves would be
more likely to do that. Yes they want to keep
their picks. All teams do, but that to me would
seem to be the way to go. So let's see
what happens there now.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Next question.
Speaker 1 (22:40):
This one comes from Harold Garb on Instagram, who says,
who pays for a free agent that undergoes a surgical
procedure his former team or himself. A free agent undergoing
a surgical procedure would obviously have to do it himself.
I would think his former team is not responded at
(23:00):
that point, he is not under contract to that team.
Speaker 2 (23:03):
But it's pretty rare.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
When we see free agents undergo surgeries.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
While they are on the open market.
Speaker 1 (23:09):
I can't even remember the last time that happened, so
I wouldn't think that that is a thing. It's a
good question, and it's a legitimate question, because of course
players would want to get that taken care of before
they are, in theory unemployed, but it just doesn't happen
all that often. All right, next question, Let's see what
this one is. This one comes from Peter Ross nineteen
(23:33):
oh seven, who asks Yankees are interested in a new
second basement and what relievers are they in on. I
don't expect the Yankees aren't necessarily interested in his second basement.
They've got jass Chishom Junior to play that position. That's
his preferred position. Third base is a different story to
some extent, but they've got Ryan McMahon there, so I
don't know why the Yankees would be looking at second
(23:54):
or third base. Shortstop is the question with them, with
Volty coming off surgery and Josey Cabaio being more of
a utility player. I would expect they'll start the season
with Caballero and then go to Volpi.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
Once he is healthy.
Speaker 1 (24:07):
There just aren't a lot of good shortstops available at
the present time, so that is where the Yankees are
with their infield relievers. I don't know exactly where they're
going to go there, and they're I'm sure looking at
all the top closers out there and talking to all
of them, from Devin Williams to Edwin Diaz, all of them.
(24:28):
But price is going to be a question, and it's
going to be a question of just how they want
to do it, because they've got David bednoin now, they
acquired him in the trade, so they don't need.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
Necessarily a ninth inning guy. Maybe one of those.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
Lesser relievers that I talked about, lesser in terms of
name valued, Milio Pagan, one of those guys Tyler Rodgers
that is more appealing to them. Samuel Rotiz three four
three nine, ask, good morning, what's up with the Dodgers?
What are they up to?
Speaker 2 (24:54):
Good question? As always, The Dodgers are a.
Speaker 1 (24:57):
Team that, in the terms of one executive, like to
hang around the backboard, And what I mean by that
is they like to see the market develop and then
they kind of say, Okay, if we can get this
kind of short term deal, we'll take him.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
If not, we'll pass.
Speaker 1 (25:12):
They are looking at relievers along those lines. One year
guy I can see making sense for them, even though
they've got Tanner Scott under contract still and let's see
if they become a player for Kyle Tucker or someone
else whose market might not develop to the extent that
that player wants. I don't think it's going to happen
that way with Tucker, but they.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Could use Kyle Tucker for sure.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
And they're a team that I expect is going to
do something. I don't know exactly what it is, but
it's very difficult to bring the same team back, especially
when you've got.
Speaker 2 (25:42):
So many older players.
Speaker 1 (25:44):
It doesn't always work the way you want it. You
want to change up the mix a little bit. I
do expect that they're going to do that.
Speaker 2 (25:50):
All right.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
With that, I want to thank everyone for watching, for listening.
Foul Territory coming up Zach Britten, SCHIDAVIDI, and Bob Kendrick
from the Negro League's Hall of Fame on the Show
Today with Eric kratz, Aj Prazinski and Scott Brown. Fair
Territory returns Thursday at twelve thirty Eastern. Have a great week, everyone,
Talk to you then.
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