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May 23, 2024 17 mins

Friday 24 May 2024

Anglo American rejects a $74 billion bid from BHP but leaves the door ajar for more talks. 

And more, including:

  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese launches a new national battery strategy
  • A Senate inquiry is told banks could charge $370 million more in fees if forced to keep branches open in the bush
  • And the Brits are going to the polls on July 4, but it doesn’t look good for PM Rishi Sunak

Plus don’t miss this week’s episode of How Do They Afford That? - a masterclass in investing in shares. Get the episode from APPLE, SPOTIFY, or anywhere you listen to podcasts.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Anglo American rejects a seventy four billion dollar bid from BHP,
but leaves the door Ajar for more talks. Prime Minister
Anthony Abernezi launches a new national battery strategy and a
Senate inquiry. As told, banks could charge three hundred and
seventy million dollars more in fees if forced to keep
branches open in the bush. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

(00:26):
Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.
It is Friday, the twenty fourth of May twenty twenty four.
I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Good morning Michael, Sean.

Speaker 1 (00:36):
After the show, you have an interview coming up with
one of our favorite economists, Carlos Kutcho, chief economist at
Jardin Australia.

Speaker 3 (00:42):
Yes, we're talking about immigration. Carlos is very across the
immigration debate here. It's become a political debate between the
two parties, but it's also a very very big economic debate,
and we talk about whether immigration is good or bad,
what it means for growth, but what it means for
housing short term, long term. It is a fantastic chat.
So if you're interested, not just in economics, not just

(01:05):
in immigration, but even social policy. This is well worth
a listen.

Speaker 1 (01:09):
Yeah, absolutely couldn't agree more. It's coming up after the show.
Stick around for that one. The main story this morning,
though Sean is a big one. Anglo American has rejected
a seventy three point nine billion dollar offer from BHP,
but has left the door open for further talks, granting
the Big Australian a one week extension to come up
with an improved bid.

Speaker 3 (01:29):
And that would be a fourth bid. Anglo American told
the London Stock Exchange early yesterday morning Australian time that
BHP had this week made a third, non binding and
conditional takeover bid that was nine percent more generous than
the second bid last week, but it was based on
the same structure that the Anglo Board had previously rejected,
including selling off some South African based assets. British laws

(01:51):
forced BHP to make a firm offer or abandon its bid,
but Anglo has asked for a one week extension. Anglo's
largest shareholder, the South African state owned Public Investment Corporation
a PIE, is to support the Anglo Board at this point,
but it will come down to price BHP is obviously
very keen and the Anglo board is squeezing as much
as it can as it should.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
So how's this going to play out? Sean? What's actually
going to happen here? Will BHP get Anglo? Do you think? Well?

Speaker 3 (02:19):
BHP has until May twenty nine to lob a binding
offer after what happened over the past forty eight hours. Basically,
he has seven days to convince Anglo to accept the deal,
and you know, sort of argue it is arguing the
case is not particularly onerous, it's not particularly complex. Anglo
has said otherwise. BHP reckons it has made progress, just

(02:39):
not enough progress, and management says it won't bid any higher.
The key issue is a devestment of controlling stakes in
two Johannesburg listed mining companies, Cumba Iron Ore and Anglo
American Platinum. Basically, I think BHP is worried about the
sovereign risk about having assets in that country. The deadline
extension is definitely positive for BHP. It now has a kniwa.

(03:00):
It hasn't quite caught the fish though, and I think
that's where we're up to. BHP share price closed down
about two and a half percent yesterday.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
There's a joke here to be made about Anglo fish, Michael.
I know, and the problem is that I've I've put
this out there now and it's just and it's a
half formed thought. I kind of wish I could retract
it anyway. I'm sure I'll come on leave good Sean.
How did local markets perform yesterday?

Speaker 3 (03:28):
The S and PAX two hundred closed down almost half
a percent to seven eight hundred and twelve points. Tech
stocks did well, while the big miners went backwards. BHP
led the way down, Rio tinto forty, QW, middles and
West Farmers were all sharply lower. National Australian Bank was
the worst of the banks. On the positive side of
the market, Sea Sell did well, jumping one point four percent,
as did Transurban. Telstra was up one point one percent.

(03:49):
In corporate news, Michael Newfarm dropped seven percent after a
slump in profits and revenue in the face of and
I quote challenging conditions in its latest half year report
and zero horded surging revenue for the twelve months in
the end of March, sending its share price up nearly
nine percent yesterday, the best on the day.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
All Right, taking a look overseas now thanks to blue
Chip Communication, the experts helping financial services companies market, communicate
and grow. Visit blue Chip Communication, dot com dot au.
What's happening in international markets? Minutes of the Federal Reserve
Interest Rate Setting Committee show that some members are prepared
to raise interest rates if inflation becomes more aggressive. The

(04:28):
prospect of a rate cut has improved on the back
of weaker inflation data, but those minutes show that the
Fed isn't scared to lift rates if it has to.
That's one of the main reasons markets were down yesterday.

Speaker 3 (04:39):
Otherwise, gold and oil were both a bit lower the
Ausie dollars buying just over sixty six uers cents.

Speaker 1 (04:45):
All right, we'll be back in a moment with the
rest of the day's business news. Sean Prime Minister Anthony
Abnezi has launched a national Battery strategy to help fund
a lot locally made batteries industry to support a renewable
energy grid.

Speaker 3 (05:04):
The Prime Minister says Australian firms have competitive advantages in cleaner, safer,
more cyber secure batteries adapted to local conditions. In last
week's budget five hundred and twenty three million dollars was
allotted to the initiative. The goal is that by twenty
thirty five, Australia will be a globally competitive producer of
batteries with a focus on grid level utility products and
those powering businesses and households. Under the strategy, there are

(05:26):
five key priorities. Boosting local manufacturing, being one another's building
knowledge and skills. They're securing a plan in global battery
supply chains, also leading the world on sustainability standards and
the circular economy, and finally bringing all levels of government
together to collaborate. Can't complains not ambitious And the other.

Speaker 1 (05:44):
Big news in the energy sector SEAWAN. The new South
Wales government will extend the life of Origin Energies Arahring
coal fired power station for at least two more years
until August twenty twenty seven. This is at a cost
of up to two hundred and twenty five million dollars
a year year after warnings the shift to renewable energy
has fallen off track.

Speaker 2 (06:04):
Yes.

Speaker 3 (06:05):
Under the deal, Origin will seek to generate a minimum
of six terrawa hours a year, that's about three percent
of total generation in the Eastern state's national electricity market
from the giant plan on the shores of New South
Wales Lake the Quarry. According to media reports, Origin will
pay a fifth of any operating profits up to a
maximum of forty million dollars a year. Should the plant

(06:26):
operate at a profit during the expansion period, that money,
of course goes to the government, but if araing is
run under loss, Ogin can call on the state to
subsidize the plants operating in capital costs.

Speaker 1 (06:37):
Now Sean I mentioned this next one at the top
of the show. This is quite incredible. Australia's five biggest
banks would charge customers and extra three hundred and seventy
million dollars in fees and interest rate increases if the
government were to enforce a higher levy on them to
keep rural banks funded and open. According to new estimates.

Speaker 3 (06:55):
Yeah, so the costings come ahead of a Senate probe
into the impact of branch closures on regional communities. Senator
Matt Canavan, the Deputy Leader of the Nationals in the
Upper House, asked the Parliamentary Budget Office to do some
work add ten percent to the current bank levy to
fund community banks. According to Financial Review, the Office said
it would raise about four hundred and ninety six million

(07:18):
dollars between twenty twenty four and twenty twenty seven. The
Parliamentary Budget Office then said that consumers would end up
getting stuck with about seventy five percent of that four
ninety six million dollars. The banks would carry the rest
that came down to the three hundred and seventy million dollars.
Common Wealth Bank, Westpac National Australia, of course have deals
with the Australia Post to provide banking services through post offices.

(07:40):
That's their way of making sure they've still got services
in the bush and Z hasn't done that. Ain Z
reckons that it's too expensive to do that, but it's
just interesting that if the banks are to do it,
then an independent voice here is saying customers could end
up having to pay the three hundred and seventy million
dollars over three years.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
Sean. The two cases of bird flu in Victoria, one
in a child, triggered fears that the virus could spread locally,
disrupting the royal economy.

Speaker 3 (08:07):
Australia is the only continent whose animals haven't been affected
by the bird flu outbreak yet. This week Australia reported
its first human H five N one bird flu case
in a child infected after a trip to India. The
child made a full recovery, thankfully. A separate HATE seven
bird flu strain was also detected at an egg farm
near Melbourne.

Speaker 1 (08:27):
Now.

Speaker 3 (08:28):
Victoria's Chief Health Officer, Claire Loooker said contact tracing had
not uncovered any other transmissions. Meanwhile, in the state of
Michigan in the US, bird flu has been spreading widely
in cattle herds, while a dairy worker has also contracted
the virus. There's now been eight human cases worldwide this year.
Disease control regulators are obviously calling on people with regular

(08:49):
expansion and animals to take precautions. Given what we've been
through in the last four or five years, this is
a worrying development.

Speaker 1 (08:57):
The Communications Regulator is issuing Optus for allegedly not protecting
customers confidential information ahead of the September twenty twenty two
cyber attack.

Speaker 3 (09:07):
The Australian Communications and Media Authority file proceedings in the
Federal Court claiming Optors failed to protect the confidentiality of
personally identifiable information of its customers from unauthorized interference or access.
It is the latest legal battle for OPTS, which is
fighting to stop a report commissioned from Deloitte into the
twenty twenty two attack from being released publicly. A class

(09:28):
action brought by Slater and Gordon is asking for that report,
but OPTS isn't doing that thus far.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
NewsCorp will allow artificial intelligence company OpenAI to show news
content from more than a dozen of its publications when
people ask questions in chat GPT. This is a big development.

Speaker 3 (09:47):
Yeah, so the deal could be worth more than a
two hundred and fifty million US dollars over five years.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the rise of AI
chatbox has pretty much shaken the news industry as much
as the Internet did. Chatbots such as chat GPT and
Google's Gemini were trained on text scraped from the web,
including news articles, of course, no payment, no permission. In

(10:10):
those the tools also answer people's questions directly, increasing concerns
that people will simply get their information from the big
tech chatbots instead of paying journalists to report and write
the news. According to The Washington Post, some organizations, including
The New York Times and the Chicago Tribune have sued
open Ai for scraping their articles. Other publishers, including Politico,

(10:31):
Pair and Company, Axles Springer, The Associated Press and The
Financial Times have signed deals with open AI. That's what
news is doing. It's kind of one of the big
debates in the journalism world right now.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
Wow, and finally shown before we get to international news. Well,
this one kind of straddles both, really, doesn't it. Shareholders
in Virgin Money, Britain's sixth largest bank that's actually listed
here on the ASX as well, have voted for a
five point five billion dollar takeover offer and the group
is going to leave the Local Exchange.

Speaker 3 (11:00):
Building Society Nationwide will buy Virgin Money, which is listed
here and in London. About half the shareholders Australian based. Now, Michael,
I know you're asking why, but why would a British
bank be listed in Australia. Excellent question, That was exactly
I was asking it with my eyes, Sean, not with
my man you were That's right. So Virgin Money was
created by the merger of Virgin UK based and Clydesdale

(11:23):
and Yorkshire Banking Group. Obviously UK based that happened in
twenty eighteen, but Clydesdale in Yorkshire was owned by a
National Australia Bank and it was spun out in twenty
sixteen when NAB exited Britain, so NAB shareholders all got
stock in Clydesdale and Yorkshire, hence it's listed here.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
I love the fact that you're now asking yourself questions
during the during the marade that you won't It feels
as though you were trying to replace me, not with
someone else, but just with yourself. Well look, if I
could just ask myself the questions, goodness me, that would
be a great show.

Speaker 3 (11:56):
I have never seen a moderator like you, Michael. So
over the last couple of days you and I've been
attending the Umbrella three sixty conferences. Been a fantastic time.
And one of the sessions that you were moderating, you
actually asked four questions in one. Then you pulled yourself
up a site. I think I've just asked four questions
in one and then the respondent it was about data,
and the respondent said, look, I think I can remember

(12:18):
the questions, and you were actually I can't remember the questions.

Speaker 2 (12:21):
It was a very funny moment.

Speaker 1 (12:22):
It was very much just a it was a stream
of consciousness kind of question anyway, and so.

Speaker 2 (12:27):
I'm asking some of the questions on this show.

Speaker 1 (12:29):
Now that's right, you have relieved me of my duties.
I've got a couple more questions to ask you, Sean.
In international news, this is a big one. The Brits
are going to the polls on July fourth, after Prime
Minister Rishi Sunac announced a surprise election, though his chances
of winning look a little slim, wouldn't you.

Speaker 3 (12:46):
Say, Yeah, he's about twenty five to one at the moment,
which isn't good in the two horse race.

Speaker 1 (12:51):
No, it's not great.

Speaker 3 (12:52):
Mister Sunac hopes the six week campaign can bridge the
twenty percentage point gap in opinion polls that is massive.
He caught the election outside ten Downing Street, as his
tradition in the pouring rain, as I think is appropriate
in this instance. Many Tory MPs are not happy with
the announcement, suggesting the Prime Minister should wait until the

(13:13):
economy is looking better. Division within the Conservatives, of course,
is not particularly unusual, not over the last few years.

Speaker 2 (13:19):
Anyway.

Speaker 3 (13:20):
His opponent is Labour's Key Starmer. Now, I'm sure we're
going to hear lots about Keys Starmer, not just in
the next six weeks, but potentially the next few years
because he is hot, hot, favorite to win. The last
election was in December twenty nineteen when Boris Johnson was elected.
He was forced out too many COVID parties I think,
and replaced by Liz Trust. Mistrust lasted forty nine days,

(13:41):
although that did include a disastrous economic recovery plan. She
also holds the honor of being the shortest serving British
Prime minister. Mister Schnak took over in October twenty twenty two.
Goes to the polls on July for this.

Speaker 1 (13:54):
Next one is absolutely remarkable, Sean, and I'm going to
reserve it now for the weekend edition tomorrow.

Speaker 2 (14:02):
Okay.

Speaker 1 (14:02):
Record sales of artificial intelligence chips Nvidia's revenue soaring two
hundred and sixty two percent in the past quarter. That's
ahead of already lofty expectations.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
And get this.

Speaker 1 (14:15):
The group expects growth to continue with the launch of
a new line of chips.

Speaker 3 (14:21):
CEO Jensen Huang said the company would see a lot
of revenue from its new black rolled chips this year
as it profits from exploding demand for the computing power
behind generative AI. According to report in the Financial Times.
Demand for Nvidia's AI data center graphics processing units has
surged over the past year as a big tech company's

(14:41):
rush to develop the computing infrastructure needed to deliver AI
products at scale. For the March quarter, Nvidia was making
about twenty nine million US dollars a day in revenue,
quite incredible. It shares up around ninety percent this year,
jumped six percent in after hours training yesterday, pushed through
one thousand US dollars a share for the first time.

(15:04):
The company also announced a ten for one stock split
and finally shown.

Speaker 1 (15:09):
Spain, Ireland, and Norway have committed to recognizing Palestinian statehood
next week, sparking a severe reprimand from Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin at Niahu.

Speaker 3 (15:19):
Mister nat Yahoo released a video calling the intention to
recognize a Palestinian state a reward for terrorism. They're in
our twenty seven EU members that recognize Palestinian statehood, though
significantly France does not. It is significant because Arab and
Palestinian officials said recognition of a Palestinian state is crucial
to a long term solution in the region. Australia, along

(15:41):
with the US, Canada, Japan, South Korea, a bunch of
others do not recognize Palestinian statehood. It comes as nations
are split over removed by the Chief Prosecutor at the
International Criminal Court to seek arrest warrants for the leaders
of Israel and Tomas.

Speaker 1 (15:57):
All right. Up next is the Fear and Grey Daily Interview.
You're speaking today with Carlos Kucco, chief economist at Jardin Australia.

Speaker 3 (16:04):
All about immigration, what it means for the economy, whether
it can fix the housing crisis, things like that.

Speaker 2 (16:10):
Very very fascinating chat.

Speaker 1 (16:11):
Yeah, sure, as it is up next to the Fear
and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed
dot com today you which is also where you should
sign up for the Fear and Greed newsletter comes out
next Wednesday, So do it today then you don't have
to worry about it again. And next Wednesday morning you
will get an email Leiden with Sean's innermost thoughts on
all of the business news topic, which actually sounds quite enticing,

(16:33):
don't you think, Sean.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
No, well, no not really, but I mean I live
with my thoughts, so I'm a bit sick of them.

Speaker 1 (16:40):
It frightens you that we've actually agreed to put out
an email containing this. Yes, just a wee bit, all right,
thank you very much, Sean.

Speaker 2 (16:47):
Thanks Michael.

Speaker 1 (16:48):
It's Friday, the twenty fourth of May twenty twenty four.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael
Thompson and that was fear and greed. Have a great day, fur,
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