March 9, 2025 • 5 mins
This is Fear and Greed - The Week Ahead, where Sean Aylmer and Stephen Koukoulas discuss the major events, reports and releases that provide insight into the economy this week (with a look back at the events of last week too).
Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.au/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to Fair and Greed the week Ahead. I'm Sean Aylmer,
and as always I'm joined at this time on a
Monday morning by economist Stephen Caculis. You'll find team at
the cook dot com and our next using the handle
the Kirk. Stephen.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Good morning, very good morning, Sean.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
We had so much information last week, we had national accounts,
retail figures, building approvals, house prices. Where do we stand
at the end of that week?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Look at the end of the week, I think it's
fair to say that the bulk of the domestic numbers
coming out were either okay or even dare I say
quite good? And is it nice to be talking about
better news on the rad of economic growth? So in
no particular order GDP. Yes, it's looking in the review
mirror of the economy, but of course it's a quarterly
(00:50):
update on where we were ap point six percent increasing
GDP in the December quarter, the fastest growth that we've
seen in two years. It comes after a series of
point ones and point two so it's nice to get
a point six and you'll growth ticked up to one
point three percent. So as the Treasurer said, yeah, this
could well be just the turning point, not to a
(01:12):
booming economy, but just that that bleeding that we'd seen
over the last couple of years might be coming to
an end. And you know, the bottom line GDPNU was
looking a little bit better. That was supplemented by well,
my favorite number for last week was actually the building
of proved six point three percent cracker. The supply side
is working. I love it when economics works. It does sometimes,
(01:34):
you know. So we've got the shortage of housing being
addressed by construction companies and individuals saying I want to
build a new house, so either up six percent or
a new apartment. In this case, there was a very
heavy skewing to apartments, but even so it's a dwelling.
So up six percent in the month, and up a
staggering twenty seven percent from the low point in February
last year. And this is before obviously, the interest rate
(01:57):
cup effects kick in, and before some of those what
we call them sweeteners at the federal government's giving the
local government sector to fast track approval and rezoning, those
things that Peter Chillip, the excellent housing economist, talks about
all the time. That's really just sort of starting to
kick in, so maybe, just maybe this is the turning
point in the house dwelling construction cycles, something that we
(02:20):
desperately need. And then to round out a little bit
of better good news, retail sales plus point three, so
again not boomingham that comes after a bit of a
weak result in December, but it's nice to have a
plus sign.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
What about I mean, how's this? What's it mean for
interest rates? Because we've had one rate cut, but all
this data has taken well before then, and maybe the
Reserve Bank is allowed to be cautious on any further
rate cuts because it's not dragging on the economy quite
as much.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Look, and that's the big question. And Deputy Government Andrew
Howser did give a speech last week too before the
National accounts came out, but in a sense that didn't
really sway what he said because again the content was terrific,
really interesting to hear his analysis, and I think the
thing that struck me about that presentation and that talk
that he gave was the what we call the counterfactual scenario.
(03:08):
So people were he was dressing the point that why
did you cut intero strates in the middle of February,
and he put this little chart showing that if they
did not cut rates trimmed mean inflation would be tracking
towards two and a quarter percent, so below the midpoint
of the target range. They did cut rates, and that
saw inflation not fall below the midpoint of the target range.
(03:29):
Then there are a couple other bits and bobs in
terms of the fore casts and projections there, but it
was basically saying that if the economy and their modeling
suggests that inflation's too low, they'll cut. If it's on
the target, they'll hold. And I suppose it's pretty obvious
when you say it, but if inflation's just even above
the midpoint of the target, so not above three percent,
but above the mid point of the target, they'll probably hold.
(03:51):
And only when it gets above three again will they hike.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
It's interesting, right, I what have we got coming up
this week?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Well, domestically, there's only two bits, and it's about how
we are feeling, how happy are we. So there's the
consumer sentiment numbers from our friends at Westpac, and that's
a good survey and it did jump up a little
bit after the rate cut. Last time we've seen consumers
sort of responding to the fact that interest rates are
low us So whether any of the geopolitical things, the
(04:19):
goodness me, the horrendous cyclone are going to change people's
sentiment remains to be seen. But again interesting to see.
When consumers are happy, they tend to spend more. And
the NAB Business Confident Survey is out and again not
only do they assess ask businesses, are you confident? Are
you feeling optimistic about the economic outlook or not? They
(04:40):
ask a lot of sub questions about price pressures, profitability,
hiring intentions, so you get a really nice, up to
date snapshot on what the business sector was thinking. So
those two things are the really only powerful bits of
information that we get this week from the local economy.
And for the moment it's sort of all lies globally
and all eyes on sort of the cleanup from the cyclone.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Stephen, enjoy your week. Thank you as the Cinder Stephen
Cookole it's better known as the Cookie. You can find
him at the cook dot com and follow him on
X using the handle of the Kirk. I'm Seanler and
this is fear and greed, the weak Ahead
Welcome to Fair and Greed the week Ahead. I'm Sean Aylmer,
and as always I'm joined at this time on a
Monday morning by economist Stephen Caculis. You'll find team at
the cook dot com and our next using the handle
the Kirk. Stephen.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Good morning, very good morning, Sean.
Speaker 1 (00:18):
We had so much information last week, we had national accounts,
retail figures, building approvals, house prices. Where do we stand
at the end of that week?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Look at the end of the week, I think it's
fair to say that the bulk of the domestic numbers
coming out were either okay or even dare I say
quite good? And is it nice to be talking about
better news on the rad of economic growth? So in
no particular order GDP. Yes, it's looking in the review
mirror of the economy, but of course it's a quarterly
(00:50):
update on where we were ap point six percent increasing
GDP in the December quarter, the fastest growth that we've
seen in two years. It comes after a series of
point ones and point two so it's nice to get
a point six and you'll growth ticked up to one
point three percent. So as the Treasurer said, yeah, this
could well be just the turning point, not to a
(01:12):
booming economy, but just that that bleeding that we'd seen
over the last couple of years might be coming to
an end. And you know, the bottom line GDPNU was
looking a little bit better. That was supplemented by well,
my favorite number for last week was actually the building
of proved six point three percent cracker. The supply side
is working. I love it when economics works. It does sometimes,
(01:34):
you know. So we've got the shortage of housing being
addressed by construction companies and individuals saying I want to
build a new house, so either up six percent or
a new apartment. In this case, there was a very
heavy skewing to apartments, but even so it's a dwelling.
So up six percent in the month, and up a
staggering twenty seven percent from the low point in February
last year. And this is before obviously, the interest rate
(01:57):
cup effects kick in, and before some of those what
we call them sweeteners at the federal government's giving the
local government sector to fast track approval and rezoning, those
things that Peter Chillip, the excellent housing economist, talks about
all the time. That's really just sort of starting to
kick in, so maybe, just maybe this is the turning
point in the house dwelling construction cycles, something that we
(02:20):
desperately need. And then to round out a little bit
of better good news, retail sales plus point three, so
again not boomingham that comes after a bit of a
weak result in December, but it's nice to have a
plus sign.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
What about I mean, how's this? What's it mean for
interest rates? Because we've had one rate cut, but all
this data has taken well before then, and maybe the
Reserve Bank is allowed to be cautious on any further
rate cuts because it's not dragging on the economy quite
as much.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Look, and that's the big question. And Deputy Government Andrew
Howser did give a speech last week too before the
National accounts came out, but in a sense that didn't
really sway what he said because again the content was terrific,
really interesting to hear his analysis, and I think the
thing that struck me about that presentation and that talk
that he gave was the what we call the counterfactual scenario.
(03:08):
So people were he was dressing the point that why
did you cut intero strates in the middle of February,
and he put this little chart showing that if they
did not cut rates trimmed mean inflation would be tracking
towards two and a quarter percent, so below the midpoint
of the target range. They did cut rates, and that
saw inflation not fall below the midpoint of the target range.
(03:29):
Then there are a couple other bits and bobs in
terms of the fore casts and projections there, but it
was basically saying that if the economy and their modeling
suggests that inflation's too low, they'll cut. If it's on
the target, they'll hold. And I suppose it's pretty obvious
when you say it, but if inflation's just even above
the midpoint of the target, so not above three percent,
but above the mid point of the target, they'll probably hold.
(03:51):
And only when it gets above three again will they hike.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
It's interesting, right, I what have we got coming up
this week?
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Well, domestically, there's only two bits, and it's about how
we are feeling, how happy are we. So there's the
consumer sentiment numbers from our friends at Westpac, and that's
a good survey and it did jump up a little
bit after the rate cut. Last time we've seen consumers
sort of responding to the fact that interest rates are
low us So whether any of the geopolitical things, the
(04:19):
goodness me, the horrendous cyclone are going to change people's
sentiment remains to be seen. But again interesting to see.
When consumers are happy, they tend to spend more. And
the NAB Business Confident Survey is out and again not
only do they assess ask businesses, are you confident? Are
you feeling optimistic about the economic outlook or not? They
(04:40):
ask a lot of sub questions about price pressures, profitability,
hiring intentions, so you get a really nice, up to
date snapshot on what the business sector was thinking. So
those two things are the really only powerful bits of
information that we get this week from the local economy.
And for the moment it's sort of all lies globally
and all eyes on sort of the cleanup from the cyclone.
Speaker 1 (05:04):
Stephen, enjoy your week. Thank you as the Cinder Stephen
Cookole it's better known as the Cookie. You can find
him at the cook dot com and follow him on
X using the handle of the Kirk. I'm Seanler and
this is fear and greed, the weak Ahead
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist
It’s 1996 in rural North Carolina, and an oddball crew makes history when they pull off America’s third largest cash heist. But it’s all downhill from there. Join host Johnny Knoxville as he unspools a wild and woolly tale about a group of regular ‘ol folks who risked it all for a chance at a better life. CrimeLess: Hillbilly Heist answers the question: what would you do with 17.3 million dollars? The answer includes diamond rings, mansions, velvet Elvis paintings, plus a run for the border, murder-for-hire-plots, and FBI busts.