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May 21, 2025 • 14 mins

Thursday 22 May 2025

The fallout from the split in the coalition deepens with Labor set to gain most. 

And more, including:

  • Commonwealth Bank hits a record high, again, as the ASX heads towards a new record. 
  • The gender pay gap in the public sector improves, but is still real. 
  • Fortescue boss Andrew Forrest warns on China dumping Aussie iron ore.
  • Qantas retakes the top spot in terms of domestic passengers. 

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Today on Fear and Greed, the fallout from the split
and the coalition deepened, with labor set to gain most
Commonwealth Bank hits a record high again as the ASX
heads towards a new record, and the gender pay gap
in the public sector improves but is still real plus
four descue Boss Andrew Forrest warns on China dumping Ossie

(00:26):
iron Ore and Quantas retakes the top spot in terms
of domestic passengers. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily business
news for people who make their own decisions. It is Thursday,
the twenty second of May twenty twenty five. I'm Michael
Thompson in Good Morning, Sean Aylmer.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Good morning, Michael, Sean.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
A quick mention of the newsletter It seems to be
the thing we do now. Is a quick plug for
the newsletter at the beginning of the show. Look, it
only takes what two or three minutes to read it.
It comes out every weekday. It's in your inbox by
six am. A cheat sheet to help you base get
a head start on your.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
Colleagues exactly right, exactly right.

Speaker 1 (01:04):
And you can sign up at Fear and Greed dot
com tod au and put a link in today's show
notes just so it's ultra easy to do it. Now
on with the main story this morning Sean. The fallout
from the split by the coalition parties continues, with former
Prime Minister Tony Abbott calling on the two sides to
rejoin and senior Liberal Senator James Patterson saying the Coalition

(01:27):
needs to reform as a matter of urgency because of
the Libs can't afford to be fighting both Labor and
the Nationals.

Speaker 2 (01:33):
In fact, Pattison said none of the policy demands made
by the Nationals leader David little Proud were insurmountable. According
to a report in the Finn Review, the only demand
that could never be exceeded to is for the Nationals
members of the shadow Cabinet not to be bound by
cabinet solidarity. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott said history shows
that the Liberals and Nationals win together and failed separately.

(01:55):
Liberal Elder John Howard, of course, the day before yesterday,
called for unit. Meanwhile, National's Deputy leader Kevin Hogan said
the decision to split wasn't overwhelming, but it was conclusive.
The two parties are at odds over the forced divestiture
of supermarkets, nuclear power, establishing a twenty billion dollar Regional

(02:18):
Future Fund, and forcing universal service obligations to ensure adequate
mobile phone coverage in the Bush, Liberals leader says and
Lee said she couldn't give assurances either way on the
policies because her party needs to go through a post
election review. They haven't done that, and she said, so
I can't actually agree to those things until we've done it.
Lee intends to name her shadow cabinet today without any

(02:41):
national MPs.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
So how will parliament work then, Sean, because this is
really kind of interesting. Now if the Libs only have
twenty eight seats in the House of Reps, the crossbenches,
which will now include that the Nats that they've got
their fifteen MP's there and you've got the tea and
the rest on the cross benches. The cross benches is
going to be larger than the opposition party, which is

(03:05):
the Liberal Party.

Speaker 2 (03:06):
So there are two seats undecided. If they go against
the Libs, which they look like doing. You are right,
no doubt, Anthony Alberanezi and Labor they must be happy.
At the moment. ALP will have ninety three MPs. That
seats in the House of reps. Libs will have twenty eight.
The cross benches at the moment are at twenty seven

(03:27):
with those two in doubt. Now that means, as you say,
you can end up with a cross bench larger than
the opposition party. In essence, the government will have plenty
of opposition right, but it won't have much unified competition. Personally,
I do not think this is a good thing. Governments

(03:47):
work best when there is a strong opposition because governments
have to work harder no matter what side of politics
you follow. So I don't think this is great for Australia.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
It honestly sounds like chaos.

Speaker 2 (03:59):
Yeah, app description, Look.

Speaker 1 (04:02):
You've got an interview coming up after the show, and
this is a really interesting take on this whole situation.
You're speaking with Tom Switzer, who is the executive director
of the Center of Independent Studies.

Speaker 2 (04:12):
That's exactly right now. Tom, Tom's a former colleague of mine.
At the thin review he gives us, he takes a
look at why it's not a crisis within the coalition,
what's gone on with lives and nats, and he kind
of puts it into an a historical perspective. So it's
a really interesting take from Tom.

Speaker 1 (04:31):
Yeah, because while they may have only split officially three
times in the past eighty years, they've had plenty of
disagreements and arguments and things. It's not as though it's
been the happiest of marriages the whole way along. No,
it is a really interesting take on it, So stick
around for that one. It's coming up after the show.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
Now.

Speaker 1 (04:48):
While all of that is going on in Canberra, the
local share market just doesn't care, right, It just keeps
getting stronger. It doesn't It is not paying any attention
to what's happened.

Speaker 2 (04:58):
In part. It rose again yesterday on growing confidence of
another interest rate cut as soon as July. On Tuesday,
the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate by twenty five
basis points. Bond markets have now priced in a better
than even chance I have two more rate cuts this year.
By the close yesterday, the market was up half percent
to eight thousand, three hundred and eighty seven points, only

(05:20):
a couple of percent below its all time peak earlier
this year. But really, once again, it's all about Commonwealth Bank.
Its share price hit one hundred and seventy six dollars
and forty six cents a share around lunchtime. Yesterday before
closing up more than a percent. That was one seventy
four sixty five. It's had three intra day records this

(05:42):
week and there's only been three trading days, so three
and three not bad. It is Abrahammouth worth two hundred
and ninety two million dollars. It's nearly fifty percent bigger
than the number two company BHP. What an amazing run.

Speaker 1 (05:57):
It is staggering two hundred ninety two billion. What I
want to do, if you're okay with this, Sean, we
do a bonus episode of Fear and Greed most days.
Actually it comes out of midday. It is ask Fear
and Greed where we kind of answer a question. And
I'm going to give you a bit of notice now
as to what I'm going to ask you today at midday.

(06:19):
I want to ask you about Commonwealth Bank because two
hundred nine two billion dollars. We've been talking so much
about the fact that it is so expensive, Commonwealth Bank
being super expensive, what it actually means, what it's being
compared to, and kind of how it can just keep
on going and going and going. So we'll take a

(06:39):
deep ish dive, a shallowish dive. I don't know it's
a dive into Commonwealth bankfine dive. Happy to do that,
Michael belly flop. Perhaps all right, well that's coming up
at midday, then Sean, let's take a quick break. We'll
be back in a moment with the rest of the
day's business news. Sure on, the pay gap between men

(07:02):
and women in the public sector is much smaller than
the gap in the private sector, but it is still there,
with women earning ninety four cents for every dollar that
a man earned.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
That's the findings from the Workplace Gender Equality Agency. It's
the first ever gender paygap report for the Commonwealth public sector.
Now we're talking about the ABC, Aussie Post Federal Police
RBA CSIRO. On average, men earn eight two hundred dollars
more than women each year. Based on this work half

(07:36):
of the Commonwealth public sector employees have a median total
remuneration gender pay gap mouthful lower than four point eight percent,
So I mean there's still a pay gap there, but
the median is less than five percent in the public sector,
that's around nine percent. Men and women have more balanced
representation in the upper pay areas of the Commonwealth public sector.

(07:58):
If you think of Michelle Bullet runs a reserve bank.
Good example. Jenny Wilkinson runs finance. Another good example. Women
comprise forty seven percent of the highest paid positions, which
explains that narrow gap compared to the private sector, men
account for just eleven percent of primary care is taking leave.
That's another reason women fall behind in the private sector

(08:21):
is that they do take time off as caregivers. Happens
in the public sector, just not as much.

Speaker 1 (08:27):
Sean I mentioned at the top of the show. Fordescue
Metals poss Andrew Forrest. He's warned that Australian miners risk
being left behind as Chinese manufacturers upgrade plants and shift
to iron or better suited to lower emission steelmaking.

Speaker 2 (08:41):
Quite a controversial comment Andrew Forrest made yesterday. He said
Chinese buyers are looking more closely at African and Brazilian deposits.
Ford Escue, of course, is the country's third largest iron
or producer, with BHP and RIO facing aging minds and
falling all grades. Western Australia is the larger exporter of
iron ore. China's the biggest importer, taking about seventy two

(09:03):
percent of the world supply. Speaking at an AFR Mining conference,
mister Forrest said and old quote Rio tinto BHP. They
talk a big game, but everyone is going down. The
choice is getting made now, and we don't have any
time to lose. His point is that it needs to
be high grade, greener iron ore.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
Federal Treasury says the government's push to increase wages above
three percent wouldn't be inflationary, which augues well for wage
hikes in that range from the Fair Work Commission in
the future.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
Yesterday, the Fairwork Commission held it's annual wage review and
asked if wage growth of three point one to three
and a quarter percent was inflationary. The answer from Treasury
in short, no, inasmuch as the economy can afford that
type of increase and still keep inflation in the reserve
banks preferred two to three percent target band. Now, the
review comes as the ACTU is pushing for a four

(09:54):
and a half percent increase for two point nine million
a ward wages, pushing for a rise around two point
four percent. The government, the federal government has asked for
an economically sustainable real increase. Therefore, it's got to be
above two point nine percent, so low threes is probably
a good bet.

Speaker 1 (10:13):
James Hardy says that the United States renovations market is
weaker than expected, as it pushes ahead with a somewhat
controversial fourteen billion dollar buyout of US based outdoor decking
group AZAK.

Speaker 2 (10:26):
Chief executive Aaron Erta told investors the company will be
able to offset the weak market conditions by winning market
share in its five per cent war clanning and planks business.
Investors aren't so sure. James Hardy's share price dropped quite
a bit yesterday. It's down twenty three percent since the
bid was announced in late March. There's been a substantial
drop off in building activity in the past month in

(10:48):
the US on the back of Donald Trump's tariff changes
adding to the cost of living. Therefore, people aren't renvading
as much. Erta expects market volumes across the entire US
housing construction market to decline over the next twelve months.
James Hardy generates about seventy five percent of its revenues
from North America, as it's about ninety nine percent, so
obviously it's very important for James Hardy's share price that

(11:11):
the building market in the US doesn't drop too much
for a.

Speaker 1 (11:15):
Very brief period three months to be exact. Virgin Australia
Sean took the crown as the most popular domestic airline,
but Quantus has now won to back again AH.

Speaker 2 (11:24):
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission figures show that quantus
Is domestic market share in three months to the end
of March was thirty seven point five percent, Virgin thirty
four point four percent, jet Star twenty six point four
percent and Regional Express Rex still flying just it had
one point seven percent. Quantus did particularly well in the

(11:44):
business travel market and Jetstar dropped nearly five percent in
the leisure market. The ABC says Virgin's strategic repositioning away
from business related travel leaves Quantas with eighty percent of
the total corporate segment fifty four percent of the small
and medium enterprise market. The report says Quattess and Jetstar
have not increased capacity even though demand is higher.

Speaker 1 (12:07):
Staying in the airline world, which honestly is a very.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
Kind of great place to be to b yeah, totally.

Speaker 1 (12:13):
Webjet has blamed the demise of Regional Express for a
steep drop in domestic bookings, even though it managed to
eke out a small profit.

Speaker 2 (12:21):
Chief executive Katrina Barry said. The twenty one million dollar
profit for the year to the end of March came
despite a challenging consumer environment. Helping the bottom line was
progress and cunning costs and web Just share price closed
up yesterday. While Rex has disappeared, more or less few
flights still going thanks to the government funding. Both Quattes
and virgin have failed to restore domestic capacity to pre

(12:42):
pandemic levels. That's the online travel agency Webjet joins flight
Center and corporate travel management and reporting softer trading conditions
as international affairs continue to fall.

Speaker 1 (12:53):
Turning to international News Now Sewan, it has been days
since we last talked about Elon Musk, so we must
rectify that immediately. He says that he has committed to
still leading Tesla five years from now and expects to
reduce his political spending as he works to come investor
concerns about the future of the ev company.

Speaker 2 (13:12):
The billionaire offered new details about his plans in an
interview with Bloomberg News. He repeated his criticism of a
number of people, from Bill Gates to a Delaware judge's
twice ruled against his massive Tesla paypackage. The fifty three
year old down paid the extent of Tesla's challenges, saying
that it's already turned around. He disputed the extent to
which he's damaged Tesla's brand, saying that while the company

(13:35):
may be losing some sales among consumers on the political left,
he gained others on the right. He criticized Tesla protesters.
He said they've committed massive violence against his company, saying
they're on the wrong side of History's thing to sound
just a little bit like Donald trum Trump.

Speaker 1 (13:55):
Yes, yeah, the massive violence line. Yes, it is very
trump best, isn't it.

Speaker 2 (14:00):
It is. It is a bit disturbing.

Speaker 1 (14:02):
Really, I suppose it's inevitable when you hang around this
on I've started talking like you.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
No you haven't, Mike.

Speaker 1 (14:08):
Yeah, sometimes I just go a little bit of and
that's just a throwback to the how you used to
say that, particularly on the weekend edition. Anyway. Up next
is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview. Tom Switzer is
your guest, A great conversation all about the Can we
say it's a circus in Canberra right now?

Speaker 2 (14:24):
Well, Tom would never say it's a circus. Oh I'm
not going you can, but I'm on Tom sign all right,
it's a circus.

Speaker 1 (14:31):
It is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com DoD au,
which is where you can join the growing number of
people signing up for the free daily Fear and Greed newsletter.

Speaker 2 (14:41):
Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

Speaker 1 (14:43):
It is Thursday, the twenty second of May twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online as well on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook.
I'm Michael Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have
a great day.
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