July 14, 2025 • 6 mins
Given all the noise around Trumps’s tariff policies, which countries stand to suffer most?
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Welcome to Ask Fear and Greed, where we answer questions
about business, investing, economics, politics, and more. I'm Adam Lang
and hello Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Hello Dansky, Sean.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Another ripping question today, given all the noise around Donald
Trump's tariff policies, which countries stand to suffer most?
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Ah, there are a bunch of ways you could answer this.
So you can think about the countries that attracting the
biggest tariffs. You can think about the goods that are
attracting the biggest tariffs. You can think about the largest
trading partners with the US, and then I supase, you
can also think about the second round defects. So the
countries that aren't necessarily directly impacted from the tariffs, like Australia,
(00:51):
but will be hit because our training partners like China,
will be hit hard by the tariffs. So lots of
ways to look at this question. I suppose before he
answered me attempt to answer it, big, big caveat. We
can only go on the information we have right now,
what Donald Trump has said so far.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
And that has had a history of changing a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Yeah, he likes to change his mind, and what we
here is often a negotiating position in his mind. So
at the moment, in the last twenty four hours, for example,
the Europeans have said we're going to not actually impose
tariffs on the US, because I know the US have
just imposed percent tariff's on us. But we think we
(01:35):
can negotiate still. So the big caveat is we can
only work on the information we have right now. That's
our countries are tracking the highest tariff. Well, I think
the winner at this point goes to Brazil. Well we'll
come to China in a moment, but Brazil fifty percent.
That's because Donald Trump doesn't the way it doesn't like
the way Ja Boltonaro, an ally and former leader Brazil
(02:00):
is being treated in that country. So nothing to do
with economics, just sort of personal preference or something. Rather
there Canada thirty five percent is going to be hit hard,
Thailand at thirty six percent, Indonesia's thirty two percent, EU
and Mexico thirty percent, Japan and South Korea twenty five percent,
so they're all pretty high. It's a bit unclear where
(02:21):
China sits. A deal's done, we think it's at fifty
five percent, but we don't really know. This was quite
a few weeks ago. It was actually late last month
that Trump said a deal's done and suggests it was
fifty five percent. But we haven't heard anything since then,
so we're not one hundred percent sure. So if we're
thinking about which country is the biggest tariff, probably Brazil
(02:42):
is a winner. Maybe it's China, not really sure. So
that's that If you think of the goods that will
attract the biggest tariffs, well, pharmaceuticals, he's looking at two
hundred percent. That's massive. I mean still aluminium and a
cop has fifty percent, automobiles at twenty five percent. The
top imports into the US oil, cars, technology and computers,
(03:07):
and pharmaceuticals. That's why that two hundred percent is huge.
Does that mean the price of medicine goes up for
people in the US. One country has hit really hard
by this is Switzerland. It exports plenty of drugs into
the US. So if pharmaceuticceutical gets hit, that'll hit Switzerland.
(03:28):
For example. What's the next time we said the largest
training partners, Well, the EU as a block is the
largest trading partner with the US. Germany's number one there.
If you don't think of that as a block, like
China's bigger, Mexico bigger than individual countries, not bigger than
the EU as a whole, but China, Mexico, Canada, Japan
(03:49):
and the UK are up there. Switzerland's another big one.
Think pharmaceuticals and then those second round effects. It is
countries like Australia that will lose out if global growth slows.
But I don't think we're going to be hit hard
as places like Canada, Mexico, EU, Germany. I think kars
(04:12):
the automobile tariffs, probably China. There's a bunch of Asian
countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar. They produce a lot
of goods selling into the US. They've got really high
tariffs as well, and their economies are probably more reliant
on US sales than many other economies, so I think
(04:35):
they'll be hit hard too. I think what we're realizing here, Adam,
this me carrying on so much. A lot of countries
is going to be hit really hard. But probably it's
kind of EU, Canada, Mexico, China, which are really the
big ones in terms of the numbers, but perhaps how
(04:57):
people live their life every day, and you know, there
to be a lot of workers in Thailand, in Indonesia,
in Southeast Asia generally, who are really going to be
affected by this.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Look without sort of wishing to complicate it furtherh on,
because we understand this is a movable feast. You know,
the actual tariff amounts still seem to be a work
in progress, and you have finished products, but then you
also have the inputs. For example, in America, there's sixty
times the number of steel workers in industries that are
associated with using that steel, and how the tariffs will
(05:31):
flow on to those other inputs. It's actually hard to
see how it will all play out over time.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Yeah, I mean, so if there's sixty other industries, the
idea is that the US steel industry will pick up
the slack, But they won't pick up the slack quickly.
There's going to be a downturn. You can't just turn
on a steel manufacturing plan and say off you go.
And so, yeah, what happens to those people in those
sixty industries. It's incredible hard I think.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Short answer from my point of view is it remains
to be seen.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
Yeah, But I mean your point here, it's really who's
going to be hit hardest. Maybe it's the US that's
actually going to be hit hardest.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
Well, it ends up hitting consumer prices, doesn't it.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yeah, and you can have a major slow down, You
could have a recession in the US on the back
of this and a lot of those other countries. I mean,
it's harder for Canada and Mexico, but certainly the EU,
certainly Asian countries including China, will find alternate markets. We
know the EU at the moment is already talking to China,
to Canada and Japan. They will all be looking for
(06:28):
other markets. But the country that actually may in the
end suffer more than anyone else is the US itself.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Fascinating and fluctuating from my point of view.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Sean, fascinating and fluctuating. Very nice.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Thank you very much, Sean.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Thanks Adam.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
If you have your own question for Fear and Greed,
jump onto the website Fearangreed dot com, dot au or
send it through any of the social media platforms. I'm
Adam Lang and this is asked Fear and Greed
Welcome to Ask Fear and Greed, where we answer questions
about business, investing, economics, politics, and more. I'm Adam Lang
and hello Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Hello Dansky, Sean.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Another ripping question today, given all the noise around Donald
Trump's tariff policies, which countries stand to suffer most?
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Ah, there are a bunch of ways you could answer this.
So you can think about the countries that attracting the
biggest tariffs. You can think about the goods that are
attracting the biggest tariffs. You can think about the largest
trading partners with the US, and then I supase, you
can also think about the second round defects. So the
countries that aren't necessarily directly impacted from the tariffs, like Australia,
(00:51):
but will be hit because our training partners like China,
will be hit hard by the tariffs. So lots of
ways to look at this question. I suppose before he
answered me attempt to answer it, big, big caveat. We
can only go on the information we have right now,
what Donald Trump has said so far.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
And that has had a history of changing a bit.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Yeah, he likes to change his mind, and what we
here is often a negotiating position in his mind. So
at the moment, in the last twenty four hours, for example,
the Europeans have said we're going to not actually impose
tariffs on the US, because I know the US have
just imposed percent tariff's on us. But we think we
(01:35):
can negotiate still. So the big caveat is we can
only work on the information we have right now. That's
our countries are tracking the highest tariff. Well, I think
the winner at this point goes to Brazil. Well we'll
come to China in a moment, but Brazil fifty percent.
That's because Donald Trump doesn't the way it doesn't like
the way Ja Boltonaro, an ally and former leader Brazil
(02:00):
is being treated in that country. So nothing to do
with economics, just sort of personal preference or something. Rather
there Canada thirty five percent is going to be hit hard,
Thailand at thirty six percent, Indonesia's thirty two percent, EU
and Mexico thirty percent, Japan and South Korea twenty five percent,
so they're all pretty high. It's a bit unclear where
(02:21):
China sits. A deal's done, we think it's at fifty
five percent, but we don't really know. This was quite
a few weeks ago. It was actually late last month
that Trump said a deal's done and suggests it was
fifty five percent. But we haven't heard anything since then,
so we're not one hundred percent sure. So if we're
thinking about which country is the biggest tariff, probably Brazil
(02:42):
is a winner. Maybe it's China, not really sure. So
that's that If you think of the goods that will
attract the biggest tariffs, well, pharmaceuticals, he's looking at two
hundred percent. That's massive. I mean still aluminium and a
cop has fifty percent, automobiles at twenty five percent. The
top imports into the US oil, cars, technology and computers,
(03:07):
and pharmaceuticals. That's why that two hundred percent is huge.
Does that mean the price of medicine goes up for
people in the US. One country has hit really hard
by this is Switzerland. It exports plenty of drugs into
the US. So if pharmaceuticceutical gets hit, that'll hit Switzerland.
(03:28):
For example. What's the next time we said the largest
training partners, Well, the EU as a block is the
largest trading partner with the US. Germany's number one there.
If you don't think of that as a block, like
China's bigger, Mexico bigger than individual countries, not bigger than
the EU as a whole, but China, Mexico, Canada, Japan
(03:49):
and the UK are up there. Switzerland's another big one.
Think pharmaceuticals and then those second round effects. It is
countries like Australia that will lose out if global growth slows.
But I don't think we're going to be hit hard
as places like Canada, Mexico, EU, Germany. I think kars
(04:12):
the automobile tariffs, probably China. There's a bunch of Asian
countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar. They produce a lot
of goods selling into the US. They've got really high
tariffs as well, and their economies are probably more reliant
on US sales than many other economies, so I think
(04:35):
they'll be hit hard too. I think what we're realizing here, Adam,
this me carrying on so much. A lot of countries
is going to be hit really hard. But probably it's
kind of EU, Canada, Mexico, China, which are really the
big ones in terms of the numbers, but perhaps how
(04:57):
people live their life every day, and you know, there
to be a lot of workers in Thailand, in Indonesia,
in Southeast Asia generally, who are really going to be
affected by this.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Look without sort of wishing to complicate it furtherh on,
because we understand this is a movable feast. You know,
the actual tariff amounts still seem to be a work
in progress, and you have finished products, but then you
also have the inputs. For example, in America, there's sixty
times the number of steel workers in industries that are
associated with using that steel, and how the tariffs will
(05:31):
flow on to those other inputs. It's actually hard to
see how it will all play out over time.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
Yeah, I mean, so if there's sixty other industries, the
idea is that the US steel industry will pick up
the slack, But they won't pick up the slack quickly.
There's going to be a downturn. You can't just turn
on a steel manufacturing plan and say off you go.
And so, yeah, what happens to those people in those
sixty industries. It's incredible hard I think.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Short answer from my point of view is it remains
to be seen.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
Yeah, But I mean your point here, it's really who's
going to be hit hardest. Maybe it's the US that's
actually going to be hit hardest.
Speaker 1 (06:04):
Well, it ends up hitting consumer prices, doesn't it.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Yeah, and you can have a major slow down, You
could have a recession in the US on the back
of this and a lot of those other countries. I mean,
it's harder for Canada and Mexico, but certainly the EU,
certainly Asian countries including China, will find alternate markets. We
know the EU at the moment is already talking to China,
to Canada and Japan. They will all be looking for
(06:28):
other markets. But the country that actually may in the
end suffer more than anyone else is the US itself.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Fascinating and fluctuating from my point of view.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Sean, fascinating and fluctuating. Very nice.
Speaker 1 (06:42):
Thank you very much, Sean.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Thanks Adam.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
If you have your own question for Fear and Greed,
jump onto the website Fearangreed dot com, dot au or
send it through any of the social media platforms. I'm
Adam Lang and this is asked Fear and Greed
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