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September 3, 2025 15 mins

Thursday 4 September 2025

The local sharemarket has its worst day since April, with bond yields rising, and the economy rebounding stronger than expected. 

And more, including:

  • NAB boss warns businesses not to ignore AI, saying complacency puts future generations at risk.
  • Could we be heading for four year terms in Canberra?
  • Plus the ATO warns Aussies not to use their super like a piggy bank. 
  • And a US judge rules US president Donald Trump broke the law, again.

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Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use Today.
The local share market has its worst day since April,
with bond yields rising and the economy rebounding stronger than expected.
The boss of National Australia Bank warns businesses not to
ignore AI, saying complacency puts future generations at risk and
could we be heading for four year terms in Canberra. Plus,

(00:27):
the ATO warns Ozzie's not to use their super like
a piggy bank, and a US judge rules US President
Donald Trump broke the law again. It is Thursday, the
fourth of September twenty twenty five. Are Michael Thompson and
Good morning Natalie McDonald. Good morning Michael, Natalie. The main
story this morning. The ASX had its worst day since
April yesterday, dropping one point eight percent, bond yields rising,

(00:49):
and the latest data from the ABS showing Australia's economy
is stronger than expected. We've got GDP data three yesterday
and it rowse zero point six percent in the June
court and one point eight percent over the year, and
that seemed to surprise a few economists.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
Let's start with the economy and then we'll get to markets.
That recovery, as you say, being driven by households splashing
out on travel, hospitality, and big ticket items. While yesterday's
figures would have reflected those earlier rate cuts and lower
interest rates would certainly be helping to lift consumer spending,
they're actually not the main reason for that stronger rebounding

(01:26):
consumption in the Dune quarter, which rose by a solid
point nine percent. AMPGPTY chief economist Yannamusina pointed out Easter
and Anzac Day falling so close this year end of
financial year sales, as well as the release of the
new Nintendo Switch, which has actually cropped up across a
couple of different data releases that we've covered of late,
consumers are spending more by running down their savings, as

(01:47):
Ozzie's enjoy. Post rate cut spending, the household saving ratio
fell from five point two to four point two percent.
But all in all, that puts annual growth now at
its strongest pace in nearly two.

Speaker 1 (01:57):
Years, and of course this is great news for the
economy right. Not so good though, for any borrowers who
are still clinging to honestly quite slim hopes of a
rate cut. When the RBA board meets later this month.

Speaker 2 (02:10):
Yeah, the Reserve Bank is now expected to hold rates
at its September meeting, with markets pricing in a lower
chance of further cuts later this year. A listing another
cut may come in November, but the Reserve Bank will
likely be cautious given rising household spending and those falling savings.
AMP is anticipating another twenty five basis point rate reduction
at the November meeting, followed by further reductions in February

(02:32):
and May of next year.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
Okay, that's the economy. Now, let's shift to local markets.
Because it was a massive day yesterday on the burs.

Speaker 2 (02:42):
It was, in short, not great. The S and p
air SX two hundred fell one point eight percent, or
one hundred and sixty two points to eighty seven hundred
and thirty eight. That's the biggest one day drop since April.
The team at the ABC have crunched the numbers and
that equates to fifty seven billion dollars wiped off the
local share market. All eleven sectors finished in the red,

(03:03):
with steep falls in tech, real estate and property. Tech
sector the worst performer zero, down six point two percent,
while the big four banks all fell between two point
two and three point seven percent, with losses for BHP
and Rio Tinto also the culprit Here. While markets are
probably due for a pullback following an unusual August, surging
bond yields are the key driver, it seems, already rising

(03:25):
in mid global pressure and then climbing another basis point
off the back of that GDP data. Once again, gold
miners holding their nerve after the precious metals stormed a
six day rally with gains for Bellvue, Gold, Northern Star
and Regius Resources.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
All right, there's a lot going on for the economy,
for markets. Let's add one more into the mix. This
is one from politics, and this is a fascinating report
out of nine newspapers where the federal government is considering
apparently a shift to four year terms and increasing the
number of electorates, part of a major overhaul of the

(04:01):
electoral system. After each election, a committee reviews that election.
In this time, Special Minister of State Don Farrell has
put forward those two issues as key considerations, whether to
extend or fix the political term, and the other one
being do they increase the number of electorates in the
lower House.

Speaker 2 (04:20):
So fixing the date for the current three year terms
that we always know when an election is coming could
be done with legislation, but extending the term to be
four years would actually require a referendum, something that has
only been tried once before by Bob Hawk in the
eighties and was defeated. But nine newspapers report that the
government is actually considering putting the reform forward again, perhaps

(04:41):
buoyed by the massive majority at one at the election.
And as for increasing the number of electorates from one
hundred and fifty, well that can be done with legislation
as well. In this case, the argument is that each
Lower House politician is representing an average of one hundred
and seventy seven thousand people. At Federation it was just
fifty thousand.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
Yeah, so it has changed just a little bit, and
maybe the system needs to change to keep up with it.
We do go into this issue in today's episode of
Q and A, where we take a more detailed look
at why reform might be necessary, the pros and cons,
and whether it can actually get through as well. That
one's coming up after the show. Don't go anywhere, though,

(05:20):
We're going to take a very quick break. We still
have a lot to get through back in a moment
with the rest of the day's business news Natalie. Leaders
at two of the big four banks are continuing to
make waves. We seem to be talking about this almost
every day now, but National Australia Banks boss is warning

(05:43):
about productivity, real focus there on AI and the new
A and Z CEO is pushing ahead with a major
reform of the bank, even though a new survey shows
that morale at the bank is dropping.

Speaker 2 (05:56):
NAT CEO Andrew Irvine has warned that Australia's productivity has
still this not so much news to us and complacency
is putting future generations at risk. Speaking to four hundred
business leaders, Irvin said AI is the game changer and
that ignoring it that's not an option. He said that
people using AI will take the jobs of those who don't,

(06:17):
and that for businesses failing to adopt new technology, it's
like Kodak or Blockbuster names I haven't thought of for
a while, certainly, but there are relevance in waiting. Meanwhile,
an Z CEO Nunomatos is pressing ahead with a major
overhaul even as staff morale dips. An internal survey of
thirty seven thousand employees showed engagement, inclusion and well being

(06:39):
metrics falling since March this year. Mattos took over the
top job in May. Just to put that survey in context,
but Mattos says tough decisions are necessary to streamline the bank,
cut duplication and focus on performance. It's been reported this
week that the bank is considering somewhere between two thousand
and five thousand job cuts as part of those reforms.

Speaker 1 (06:59):
The Tax Office is warning Australians not to treat their
SUPER like a piggybank, after early withdrawals topped one billion
dollars last financial year. Now, new figure show applications for
compassionate release of SUPER have surged more than seventy five
percent since before the pandemic.

Speaker 2 (07:18):
Nearly sixty nine thousand people applied in twenty three twenty four,
with most seeking help for medical or dental costs. About
fifty thousand applications were approved. But the ATO says too
many people think that SUPER is essentially free money.

Speaker 1 (07:32):
It's extraordinary that that is the way that they're kind
of putting this, because when you look at those stats,
these are things like yeah, as you say, medical care,
dental care, It even gets down to things like palliative
care that people are needing to dip into SUPER four,
and you would assume that in those cases they've probably
tried every other option before going into super because you
know that super is most valuable and works best when

(07:53):
you leave it, don't access it, and it just keeps
building up.

Speaker 2 (07:57):
Well and exactly that. Officials are saying that earlier access
should only ever be a last resort, which completely speaks
to your point, Michael, pulling out twenty thousand dollars at
age thirty could actually leave you ninety three thousand dollars
worse off in retirements. That's some really stark figures there.
The ATO is also cracking down on dodgy operators, health

(08:18):
practitioners inflating medical reports, or companies charging big fees to
file applications. The Super Members Council wants stronger action, warning
of a wave of ads luring people to raid their
retirement savings for non essential treatments.

Speaker 1 (08:32):
Yeah. Yeah, as you say, it should just be last resort,
and really it is why financial advice is so valuable
as well, particularly when you're dealing with superannuation, because a
small change can have a really massive lasting effect. Now
Australia's farm sector Natalie is breaking records. The country's agriculture,

(08:54):
fisheries and forestry production is forecast to reach a record
value of one hundred and one billion dollars this financial year.
That is, according to the government's Agricultural Forecaster.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
Driving the boom. Livestock prices for lamb, beef and milk
ghas soaring. In fact, we had that story about the
three hundred and fifty thousand dollars hefer that went for auction,
and this is pushing livestock production to more than forty
one billion dollars. While wheat yields are down due to drought,
they're still on track from a massive sixty two million
ton harvest. And here's some sweeter news for fruit growers.

(09:28):
You like that one d After years of negotiation, Australian
apples can now be exported to Canada without fumigation or
cold treatment. Agriculture Minister Julie Collins says the new access
will help growers compete globally, following on from April's breakthrough
deal with China. It's that's going to make exports more viable.
Although Australia will be up against heavyweights like South Africa,

(09:49):
Chile and China, which produces more than forty three million
tons of apples each year, that is versus Australia's three
hundred thousand tons.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
It's really not a core industry for us, is it.

Speaker 2 (10:00):
Oh my goodness, that's even worse.

Speaker 1 (10:02):
Yeah, that was actually serious story, this one. Power bills
are biting hard more Australians are simply not paying them.
In fact, these are record numbers now. Financial counselors say
two and a half million people are under severe stress
and a growing number are being told to stop using
credit cards to cover bills and instead just talk to

(10:24):
the company, notify the company that they can't actually afford
to pay.

Speaker 2 (10:27):
And in the past power would be cut off, but
now companies are keeping the lights on and quietly absorbing
the costs, the Australian reports. But that shortfall, it doesn't
just vanish though it's being passed on. The latest inflation
data shows electricity prices up thirteen percent, with some of
that hike thought to be covering unpaid bills. Alnics worn

(10:49):
this is unsustainable. If word spreads that debts aren't being pursued,
even more households may stop paying. Add in soaring transmission
costs from big renewable projects, and experts say higher prices
are baked in. The bottom line here is that paying
customers could end up footing the bill for millions who
can't or won't pay.

Speaker 1 (11:07):
Now. I love this. Next one, Big Changes is coming
to bargain shopping in Australia. The Reject Shop name is
set to vanish after forty four years. The new Canadian owner, Dollarma,
is rebranding the chain and almost doubling its size. The
fifty seven billion dollar retail giant plans to roll out
a supermarket style format, long aisles, new products, prices slashed.

(11:29):
It has been quite a story since the takeover of
Reject Shop by Dollarma. They're really coming in and giving
it a crack.

Speaker 2 (11:37):
And if you're not familiar with the name, Dollarma already
runs more than sixteen hundred stores across Canada and Latin
America and now wants seven hundred stores in Australia by
twenty thirty four, so almost twice the current network. That
would put it on par with Aldi and bigger than
Big W so posing a serious threat to Kmart and Target.
CEO Neil Rossi says the Dollarama experience will be feen

(12:00):
gradually with shell stocks from the company's huge global supply chain.
For shoppers that means cheaper toys, clothes, and everyday goods.
But for rivalr retailers, it's a new heavyweight, really shaking
up the discount game. And given Big w status as
the problem child, I expect there are a few eyes
at Wilworth keeping a close eye on these developments.

Speaker 1 (12:21):
Okay, turning to international news now, and China has staged
the country's biggest ever military parade at Beijing's Tianamen Square,
flanked by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, North Korean dictator Kim
Jong un. President Jijin Ping used the spectacle of missiles, drones, tanks,
tens of thousands of troops to emphasize China's vision for
a new world order.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
And also in attendance was former Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews
shaking hands with you, imposing alongside the North Korean dictator
in Russias Putin, who's wanted for alleged war crimes, sparking
much criticism at home. Opposition figures have slammed it as
a parade for dictators, while Victorian leaders have defended it
as private diplomacy and a chance to maintain regional ties.

(13:03):
The event was largely shunned by Western leaders, but Trump
weighed in on social media, asking Ji to send quote
war mist regards to Putin and Kim, calling them conspirators
against the US. The parade also gave Putin and Kim
a platform to deepen energy deals and showcase North Korea's
first major multilateral appearance in sixty six years.

Speaker 1 (13:24):
Yeah, that tweet or that post on truth social it
was just so pointed, so direct.

Speaker 2 (13:29):
It's like when you find out that your friends have
gone to the pub without you, and you're like, have fun, yes,
enjoy please without me.

Speaker 1 (13:35):
Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin and Kim
Jong Un, as you conspire against the United States of America.

Speaker 2 (13:41):
Yeah, just kis with love.

Speaker 1 (13:42):
Yep, tell it like it is. And while we're speaking
about the US president, A federal court judge in the
States has ruled the Trump administration broke the law by
deploying National Guard troops to the protests in la earlier
this year.

Speaker 2 (13:56):
The court found the move wilfully violated federal law using
troops beyond their legal authority. Trump had sent around five
thousand National Guards, soldiers and marines to LA after immigration raids,
despite objections from Governor Gavin Newsom and city leaders. While
most troops were withdrawn by July, roughly two hundred and
fifty remained, and the judge flagged inadequate training on what

(14:17):
they could legally do. The ruling comes as Trump publicly
news is about deploying the Guard to other democratic led cities,
including Chicago, Baltimore, and New York.

Speaker 1 (14:27):
Okay. Coming up next, as I mentioned, Fear and Greed
Q and A today looking at the potential for political
reform and why don't you headlong to Fearangreed dot com
dot au as well and sign up for our free
daily newsletter all the news you need to know in
your inbox by six am. It only takes about three
minutes to read and it will put you ahead of
your colleagues, your clients, your competitors, everyone. I'll put a

(14:50):
link in today's show notes as well. Thank you very much, Natalie,
Thank you Michael. It is Thursday, the fourth of September
twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and
join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook
A Michael Thompson and the atmosphere and grade have a
great day, y
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