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March 12, 2025 16 mins

Thursday 13 March 2025

The local share market tumbles on the back of Washington’s decision to not allow exemptions from tariffs, for Australian aluminium and steel exports. 

And more, including:

  • The corporate watchdog pursues the country’s biggest superannuation fund. 
  • And Warren Buffett once again proves he is one of the greatest investors of all time. 
  • Plus industrial disputes in Australia rise, and Ukraine agrees to a cease fire although Moscow is, so far, non-committal. 

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Today on Fear and Greed. The local share market tumbles
on the back of Washington's decision to not allow exemptions
from tariffs for Australian aluminium and steel exports. The Corporate
watchdog pursues the country's biggest superannuation fund, and Warren Buffett
once again proves here's one of the greatest investors of
all time. Plus industrial disputes in Australia rise, and Ukraine

(00:29):
agrees to a cease fire, although Moscow is so far noncommittal.
Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people
who make their own decisions. It is Thursday, the thirteenth
of March twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good
morning Sean Aylmer.

Speaker 2 (00:43):
Good morning, Michael.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
Massive show today Seawan the main story this morning. The
local share market was officially in correction Territory yesterday, having
fallen more than ten percent since its PEA class month
dragged lower over the last twenty four hours by confirmation
local aluminium and steel sold to the US will be
hit with twenty five percent tariffs are unsuccessful in getting

(01:07):
an exemption.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
That's right, So yesterday it was the consumer discretionary stocks,
industrials and financials that were sold down big time. About
fifty billion dollars was wiped off the value of the
market by the close after a last ten minute rebound.
Really the market was down about nine percent or a
little over nine percent from its peak less than four
weeks ago. Ten percent is defined as a correction, so

(01:30):
briefly with in correction territory, but it's around that level
at the close. Over the last month. It's the tech
stocks and the big banks that have been hit hardest.
The Tech sub index is down twenty percent over the
past month. Financials are down about twelve percent. A bunch
of companies from across the bores are now trading around
twelve month lows, even some who aren't really caught up

(01:52):
in the global trade wars that are going on. So
CSL four to squ Metals, Woolies, Data Center Group next
to see Treasury Wine Estates and Group which owns the
pubs and clubs in Liquor Outlets, Challenge of the Innuities Company,
Flight Center Travel and Hollow World Travel Groups Dominos all
trading around twelve month lows. In fact, nearly twenty percent

(02:13):
of the top two hundred have recorded a new twelvemonth
low this week. That is quite incredible. What is really
noteworthy at the moment is that most companies are being
sold off. We're not just seeing I mean, tech sector
has been sold off most, but it's broad based. All
sorts of companies are being sold down.

Speaker 1 (02:35):
It's been going on for a little while now, for
what about a month or so. What are the main
reasons behind the sher market tumblant. We did kind of
talk about this on various occasions, like about the fact
that the banks had been priced to perfection for some
time and it wasn't going to take much really for
something to send them down. What's been combining to make
this happen over the last month, So.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
They're about four or five main reasons you just mentioned
won the price to perfection. Equity evaluations are stretched. They
just got too expensive. In fact, if you put a
trend line over the past decade, the ASEX is still
overvalued by about five percent s and P five hundred
is still overvalued by about ten percent. Tech stocks, particularly
the Magnificent seven on Wall Street, they just ren I

(03:18):
was going to say, too hard, but they have run
so hard. They now account for about thirty five percent
of the S and P five hundred if they get
sold off. The S and P five hundred gets sold off,
that pushes through to the Australian market, so valuation stretch
tech stocks very expensive. Hopes of a bunch of rate
cuts in the US and Australia have been dashed by
sticking fation. That's the third reason. A fourth one overlaying

(03:41):
all of this is the contradictory commentary out of the
White House which has created enormous uncertainty, and then, specifically
for Australia over the last twenty four hours, the news
aluminium and still exports won't be exempt from US tariffs.
Sell Offs in markets aren't abnormal. It's just part of
the market, especially when they get expensive over the time.

(04:01):
Though the economy grows, so do markets. But analysts are
now saying with this selloff, don't expect it to end
anytime soon. We could be in for a tough period.

Speaker 1 (04:13):
You just mentioned the tariffs and that's worth a bit
of discussion on its own, because Australia won't be receiving
an exemption from tariffs on exports of steel and aluminium
to the US. With a billion dollars in annual sales
now attracting a twenty five percent impost. There was a
lot of hope that there would be an exemption and
it just didn't happen.

Speaker 2 (04:31):
That's right, the White House informed Canbery yesterday. When pressed
by Australian media at the White House, a spokesperson said,
I quote American first Steel and if they want to
be exempted, they should consider moving steel manufacturing here end
quote promised and how an easy. He said the tariffs

(04:52):
were entirely unjustified. He said they're against the spirit of
the two nations and enduring friendship. He said tariffs and
trade tensions are a form of economic self harm and
a recipe for slower growth and higher inflation. The tariffs
were imposed despite phone calls between Trump and the Prime
Minister a little over a week ago. In a series
of meetings between Seeing your Government ministers and the US counterparts.

(05:15):
The opposition came out and said Albanesi hadn't done enough.
Albanesi came back and said, well, I tried to call
Trump again and he didn't pick up the phone. The
Prime Minister said Australia put a range of propositions to
the US government. They were rejected. He said the cost
of the tariffs will be paid for by US consumers,
not Australians.

Speaker 1 (05:33):
Now.

Speaker 2 (05:33):
Business leaders yesterday pointed out that the carve out negotiated
by the Turnbull government from tariff's under Trump one point
zero administration. They actually took about eight months to negotiate.
So the show ain't over yet and certainly, asn't we
know with Donald Trump, nothing's ever over.

Speaker 1 (05:49):
That comment from the spokesperson for the White House isn't
interesting one, isn't that American first deal. If they want
an exemption, they should move steel manufacturing here. It's not feasible.
It's not going to happen, though it is happening in
some cases with say blue Scope, which has a facility there.
But on the whole, it's a comment that doesn't really help,
does it.

Speaker 2 (06:07):
It just doesn't make sense. Yeah, I mean Bluescope Funnily enough,
an Australian listed company, will do really well out of
this because they've got a massive manufacturing facility in Ohio.
They will probably benefit from it, and say shareholder and
Bluescope will probably benefit from this. But that was just
an ignorant comment from that person.

Speaker 1 (06:24):
Yea extraordinary among the main arguments, and this has been
going on for a while, but among the main arguments
that Australia has used to argue for an exemption is
that we are one of the few countries with a
trade deficit to the US, meaning that we buy more
stuff from them than they sell to US.

Speaker 2 (06:41):
Yes, and in a beautiful sense of timing, Australia's trade
deficit turned into a surplus last month for the first
time in about forty years. It was on the back
of a one off sale of gold to the US.
It'll be reversed out next month. But beautiful timing to
actually come out and say, well, we're just going into
a trade surplus with the US.

Speaker 1 (07:03):
Oh you couldn't script that, could you. It's fantastic goodness
May okay, Sean. After the show, It's got plenty more
to come. But after the show, we have an interview
coming up, a bit of a change of pace, a
conversation with Chris Huls, the CEO of Life three sixty.

Speaker 2 (07:18):
Yeah, it's a great chat with Chris. Life three sixty
is one of those companies that have sort of reinvented
itself in the last couple of years after being sold
off and it's adding subscription levels and new products all
the time, and it's a really fascinating chat with Chris
about how that company's going. Osbi's, of course, is Australia's
leading provider of live and on demand video of the

(07:38):
latest news in Australian business market's, economy and startups. Sign
up for free at osbi's dot com dot Au.

Speaker 1 (07:44):
The thing I loved about this conversation was just that
it kind of goes into this life three sixty business
model about how they are able to families, able to
track kind of family members, and the expansion into pets,
and the expansion into seniors, and why kind of Google
and Apple are really competitors.

Speaker 2 (08:01):
Coworkers when it's time to record and where is he?
Where is he? Suddenly?

Speaker 1 (08:08):
Just like three sixty in awe Ago. It's a fascinating
conversation and pretty lofty goals for the company. I won't
spoil anything because it's a great conversation, but check it
out as coming up later on Sean. We've got so
much more still to come. We'll be back in a
moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean

(08:28):
the Corporate Watchdog is alleging that the country's biggest super fund,
Ossie Super failed to pay out millions of dollars in
claims to families of deceased members in a timely manner.

Speaker 2 (08:39):
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission says the fund failed
to process almost seven thousand death benefit claims efficiently, honestly
and fairly between July twenty nineteen and October last year.
In one case, it took Australian super more than three
years to pay a claim to a relative of a
deceased member. Now it's the second case is launched against

(09:01):
a big super fund in the past year, after taking
Seabuster court for allegedly similar customer service failures. Last month,
ASSE fined OSSI suba twenty seven million dollars for failing
to merge duplicate accounts as required by law. It's pretty
clear that the corporate watchdog is taking a very close
look at the big players in the four trillion dollar

(09:21):
super sector. It wants to make sure they're behaving and
that's fair enough.

Speaker 1 (09:27):
The Federal government SEAN has lost its appeal in a
native title case that could expose it to a raft
of multimillion dollar compensation claims over land that had acquired
in the Northern Territory throughout the twentieth century.

Speaker 2 (09:40):
The High Court upheld the decision of the Federal Court
from last year, clearing the way for the Gumaje people
of Arnham Land to seek compensation over a mining lease
granted over the Gove Peninsula in the nineteen sixties. The
Gove Peninsula is in the very northeast of the Northern Territory.
The March people are seeking about seven hundred million dollars
in the It was brought by the late indigenous elder

(10:02):
and land rights pioneer Unipingu in twenty nineteen. According to
a report in the City Morning Herald, the High Court's
decision to dismiss the Commonwealth's appeal allows the Goomage people
to progress their native title claim and, if successful, claim
compensation now beyond this claim. It's significant because it opens
the Commonwealth to further compensation claims from when it controlled

(10:25):
the Northern Territory that was from about nineteen eleven to
nineteen seventy eight. Previously, before this decision, compensation has generally
been understood to apply for extinguishment of native title. After
nineteen seventy five, when the Racial Discrimination Act was introduced.
This opens the way for a far greater time period.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
The number of industrial disputes in Australia is on the rise,
with working days lost last quarter the most in more
than three years.

Speaker 2 (10:55):
Until COVID, the number of industrial disputes were trending down,
but since then of disruptions has increased. Bureau of Statistics
figures released yesterday show fifty four thousand working days were
lost during the December quarter. That's the highest since June
twenty twenty two. What we're seeing more disputes, though each
individual incident involves fewer people. Having said that, compared to

(11:18):
the eighties, nineties and noughties, the level of industrial disputes
nowadays is actually pretty low.

Speaker 1 (11:24):
There was a bit of corporate news around here, so
that just one story I wanted to ask you about,
and that was the fallout from X tropical Cyclone.

Speaker 2 (11:31):
Alfred Yes and Insurance Australia groups that it received more
than four thousand claims relating to the X tropical cyclone.
It told investors it had to bring in more staff
to work through the claims. Now Insurance Australia Group by
ag Suncorp. They've all said that mostly they're covered. Their
reinsurance policies covers what they're going to have to pay out,

(11:55):
so it shouldn't be a huge financial impost on them.

Speaker 1 (11:57):
Okay. Now turning to international news, Ukraine has said it
is ready to accept a US proposal for an immediate
thirty day ceasefire in its war with Russia, prompting Washington
to agree to resume military assistance to Kiev.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
The proposed ceasefire, which would still need to be agreed
to by Russia, was announced in a joint statement that
capped several hours of talks between US and Ukrainian officials
in Saudi Arabia. According to The Financial Times, Washington said
it will immediately restore deliveries of weapons and ammunition and
end its suspension of intelligence sharing, which Kiv feared would

(12:33):
seriously hamper its ability to detect and hit targets beyond
the battlefield. US President Donald Trump said he hoped Russia
would agree to the ceasefire, and that he planned to
speak to Vladimir Putin. The ceasefire, which could be extended
with the agreement of both parties, would go well beyond
the partial truth suggested by Ukraine's president Vladimir Selenski before

(12:53):
the meeting with US officials.

Speaker 1 (12:55):
So what's Russia's response being to this? Now, presumably they
get seat at the table, right.

Speaker 2 (13:01):
You don't presume anything anymore?

Speaker 1 (13:03):
A good point.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
The focus is very much on Vladimir Putin. The ball
is in his court. A senior government official yesterday was
quoted in the media is saying any ceasefire proposal would
be on Moscow's terms, not Washington's terms. So you could
imagine that Vladimir Putin isn't that fast that Donald Trump
is dictating what a ceasefire might look like.

Speaker 1 (13:25):
While we're talking about the US president, and we've talked
about the on again, off again nature of tariffs, Donald
Trump is back down from a threat to double tariffs
on Canadian steel and metal imports to fifty percent just
hours after me after making the threat.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
So the backdown came after the Canadian province of Ontario
to suspended its own surcharge of twenty five percent on
exports of power to the US, which Trump had cited
as a reason for bursting tariff on imports from Canada. Basically, Michael,
it really is getting a bit mad, isn't it.

Speaker 1 (13:55):
The worst part is I feel bad laughing about that,
as I say, because you want to be a objective
about all of this, but to have a president make
a threat like that and then to kind of backflip
on it within ours, it is objectively ridiculous.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (14:11):
Anyway, I maid all of this turmoil, sean one global
investor is standing apart at less in terms of making money,
Warren Buffett, No surprise there.

Speaker 2 (14:21):
Yeah. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that Elon Musk lost
about one hundred and twenty six billion dollars this year. Obviously,
Tesla's share price has tumbled. Jeff Bezos lost that twenty
one billion dollars, et cetera, et cetera. The only member
of the richest twenty humans on earth to have made
a significant amount of money. He's not the only one

(14:41):
to have made money, but a significant amount of money
is Warren Buffett. He's made thirteen billion dollars in twenty
twenty five. Now. Buffett has a very simple motto for success,
very very appropriate for our show. The motto is, be
fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when
others are fearful. That's perfect. It is he fear and

(15:03):
Greed motto isn't yeh Yeah, I reckon.

Speaker 1 (15:05):
He stole it from us. Yeah, I mean, never mind
the fact that he's been saying it for fifty.

Speaker 2 (15:08):
Years or more more.

Speaker 1 (15:10):
Yeah. So.

Speaker 2 (15:11):
In the lead up to the front presidency and since
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been selling shares and amassing cash,
He's been criticized heavily for holding so much cash. Ins
the fact about one third of Berkshire Hathaway's assets, I
mean cash, it's about three hundred and thirty four billion
US dollars. Just as the market tumbles. He's laughing now eh.

Speaker 1 (15:37):
Go was Ah the Oracle of Omaha does it again? Wow?
Right up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview
with Life three sixties Boss Chris Hull's a great conversation
and Sean at midday today ask Fear and Greed, which
is our twice weekly bonus episode that comes out today.

(15:57):
I reckon could be my favorite question that we have
had yet, and it is all about gold. And I'm
not going to say any more than that, but it
is a lot of fun. Just have a listen, let
us know what's thinking. If you've got your own question,
that you would like us to answer and ask Fear
and Greed, then send it in via any of the
social media platforms or via our website. So plenty of
good listening coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist
on the podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com. Dodate you,

(16:19):
Thank you, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It is Thursday, the
thirteenth of March twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following
the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was
Fear and Greed. Have a great day.
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