Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
Australia's healthcare companies are in turmoil, with US tariffs the
latest in a long line of challenges for the worst
performing sector on the ASX. Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi rules
out any more referendums and quantas, lifts the bar on
management performance hurdles, plus the hottest jobs in the market,
(00:26):
and America goes crazy for drive through coffee. It is Monday,
the twenty ninth of September twenty twenty five. I'm Michael
Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Good morning, Michael, Sean.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
The main story this morning, US President Donald Trump's decision
to place one hundred percent tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into
the US has sent global drug companies into a tailspin,
and in Australia it's basically had the effect of putting
more pressure, even more pressure on one of the worst
performing sectors on the.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
ASX, the s ANDPAX two hundred Healthcare Index, which is
the third biggest on the moors, worth about eight percent
of the ASX two hundred. It's got fourteen constituents. It's
trading at close to a fifty two week low, down
eighteen percent this year, and this is well ahead of
the tariffs. Compare that to other sectors consumer discretionary, financials, industrials,
(01:17):
tech materials, property utilities. All those indices are trading close
to year highs or at least in the top quartile
of their performance. Now, the tariffs are bad news, although
Australian authorities are struggling to understand the implications for about
two billion dollars worth of ossie exports to the US.
The carve out at the moment is that drug makers
(01:37):
won't be hit with the tariff if they have an
American manufacturing plant under construction by Wednesday. Now the good
news for Australias because drug companies ce sell it actually
has about sixty percent of its business including manufacturing plants,
in the US. Notwithstanding that its share price did fall
on Friday. More contentions contentious perhaps in the longer term,
(01:59):
will be how this Onlian government regulates drug prices through
the Pharmaceutical Benefit Scheme. But coming back to the sector,
the tariffs aren't the reason for the poor performance of
the health care sector. The irony is it should be
a golden period for healthcare. There's an aging population globally,
there's a prevalence of chronic diseases. There's also rising healthcare spending.
(02:20):
But global players are doing a better job aggressively adopting
AI for drug discovery, clinical trial optimization, and supply chain resilience.
According to analysts, Also, size matters because it allows diversification.
Izzie healthcare companies and biotechs focus pretty much on treatments
for specific ailments. They're just not diversified, and our market
(02:40):
size is small, so that we've got to go overseas
to succeed. Mostly that means Europe or the US that
doesn't come cheaply. So a lot working against the ossie
companies at the moment.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Yeah, and these tariffs are just the latest hit, really,
isn't it. And it was interesting watching the scramble on
Friday when news broke of these tariffs being imposed as
companies try to figure out how they're going to be impacted,
and then very quick quickly trying to emphasize the fact,
hey we've got these processing manage the manufacturing plants in
the US and CSL you mentioned, but miso blast was
(03:15):
doing the same thing. Telex Pharmaceuticals doing the same thing,
and all of them still were hit hard their share
prices on Friday. Long term CSL well medium, it's a
short to medium term CSL's obviously been a poor performer.
But there have been some good ones, right, Sigma Healthcare
and pro Medicus kind of come to mind.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
True, but they've been over shadowed really by the bad
ones in CSLS led the market down. It's never recovered
post COVID. It was re rated post COVID. The tariff
treats just the latest life for that one. It had
a heart drug candidate which it had spent a billion
dollars on in research.
Speaker 2 (03:52):
It failed.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
The bearing blood plasma business is struggling. It's five for
farmer business, which CESEL paid about nineteen billion dollars into
one has struggled the whole time. Other groups like Fisher
and paykeal Cochlear, Sonic Healthcare, Ramsey, you mentioned Telix, but
it Ebos, they've all gone backwards over the past twelve months. Sure,
there's been some strong performance. Sigma Healthcare fantastic, did the
(04:14):
deal with Chemist Warehouse done really well. Miso Blast has
has some really good clinical trials. It's outperformed over the
past year, though, confidence has come out of that stock
since its last result, And of course there's Promedicus, everyone's
favorite last financial year, it has flat lined since then.
A few others, res med Neu and pharmaceuticals have done
reasonably well, but overall there's a lot working against the
(04:38):
local pharmaceutical companies right now.
Speaker 1 (04:41):
I did appreciate the reference to flatlining in the O
in healthcare.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
I've done it.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Oh that wasn't even deliberate. No, God, these things come
so naturally to you that you don't even realize the
gift that you possessed. Sean. Anyway, the local share market
did close higher on f and for the week, and
now all eyes will be on the Reserve Bank Board
meeting today and tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (05:05):
No one really expects a rate cut tomorrow afternoon, but
it will be very interesting to see what Governor Michelle
Bullock and the board have to say. We heard from
the government last week that the economy is in pretty
good shape, but since then, the head of the US
Federal Reserve, Joe Powell, has commented that he's a bit
more worried about inflation globally. Really, they Michael at the
moment all about silver prices The price of silver hit
(05:27):
a fourteen year high over the weekend, up fifty five
percent this year, better than gold, it's up only forty
three percent. Only there you go, now worth forty five
US dollars a ton, highest level since April twenty eleven.
A few things on that say haven buying, so it's
a bit like gold, nowhere near to that extent, but
you know, say haven buying, you buy silver. Falling US
(05:48):
dollar has also helped, but one I like, silver's actually
got uses.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
So about sixty.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Percent of silver is used in industry, only about seven
percent of gold, so it's almost like a fallback, so
it's not just the safe haven. You can actually use
the stuff as well. That's helped a bunch of local
stocks like Unico, Unico Silver, Sun, Silver, bow Ab Metals,
they've all benefited.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Sean, you mentioned the Reserve Bank Board meeting today tomorrow
in the Fear and Greed Q and a coming up
after the show, which is our regular Monday episode of
the week Ahead really with resident economist Stephen Cocolis, we
go into the Reserve Bank Board meeting what they'll be
looking at, but also there's a bunch of other things
happening this week. It is a big it's it almost
(06:33):
goes so far as to say a bump a week
for the economy. You've got building building approvals, we got
house prices from Cotality, we've got household spending for August.
A lot of bits and pieces happening, headlined of course
by the Reserve Bank Board meeting. But check out fear
and greed the week ahead, which is today's episode of
Q and A coming up after the show with Stephen
Coculis Sean, let's take a quick break back in a
(06:54):
moment with the rest of the day's business news Sean.
Prime Minister Anthony Albernizi says there will be no attempt
at constitutional change, such as a referendum, while he is
running the country.
Speaker 3 (07:11):
His comments came after meeting King Charles the Third at Balmoral.
He told ab season Cider's program that instead the government's
concentrating on cost of living and making a real practical
difference to people's lives. Previously, Alberanzi had only promised no
referendum this term of parliament. The new declaration ends any
prospect of a tilt at becoming a republic or introducing
(07:32):
a four year term of Federal Parliament, both causes which
Alberinezi believes him. The Prime Minister said the republic was
not raised during his talks in lunch with the King,
though he hinted that the Orcas Pact was. Of course,
you don't discuss what you talk to the king about,
but Albanezi hinted Orcas was in there. Charles the Third,
of course, appointedly raised the pact in a speech in
(07:53):
the presence of Donald Trump last week. Alberanze easy first
Australian Prime minister to visit Balmoral since Paul Keating with
Queen Elizabeth the ID in the nineties. At that point,
Keating actually set to Queen Elizabeth Second that he planned
to hold a referendum to make Australia a republic. Well,
I'm sure that was a memorable meeting.
Speaker 1 (08:15):
This for the question why no one else has gone
back to Balmoral since perhaps that's a shame that that
he's ruled out even the four year terms referendum, because
come on, we have some courage, You've got a massive
mandate here, You've got people kind of on board for
some change. Put it out there and let people decide.
Come on, yep, yep, with you I'll get off my
(08:37):
high horse and my soapbox. In fact, I'm on a
high horse balanced on a soapbox. It's precarious. Sean Grand
Final weekend in Melbourne reduced the number of auctions in
that state and really then across the country also had
a bit of a dampening effect on clearance rates.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Yes, so there was a thirty three percent reduction in
auctions in the combined Capital's preliminary clearance rate came in
at seventy one point four percent nearly seventy eight percent
last week, so you know, quite the drop. But I
wouldn't read too much into that given the football final.
Same deal next week with the NRL Grand Final being
held in Sydney. Sydney recorded most auctions it's clear and straight,
with seventy three point five percent, well down from a
(09:12):
week earlier. Only two hundred and thirty homes went under
the hammer in Melbourne. Why would you sell in Melbourne
and Grand Final weekend?
Speaker 1 (09:19):
I don't know, You've got no idea, like you would
assume they didn't check the calendar.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
One in three didn't sell.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
I have a clearance three of sixty five percent, so
pretty poor anyway, don't sell on Grand Final weekend.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Basically okay, lesson learned show on the Quantas board has
lifted the bar for long term incentive plans, saying shares
will only vest if the airline's reputation score improves from
average to strong or excellent by twenty twenty eight. This
feels like a very targeted measure aim to fix some
(09:57):
of Quantis's problems.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
Yeah, I think so. The chief executive of Vanessa Hudson
will have her shares at risk and she will be
well rewarded, but only if she improves the carrier's reputation. Quantus,
of course, has had a horror couple of years, at
least in a pr sense. Last week, remember the Roy
Morgan rankings put Quantus as one of the most distrusted
brands in the country. So Hudson clearly has plenty to do.
(10:20):
In the twenty twenty five financial year, the one that
was finished, Hudson was awarded two point four million dollars
under the incentive plan, taking her annual learnings to six
point three A revised plan being put to shareholders at
the November seven AGM, will see the reward opportunity for
MSS Hudson lifted from one sixty to one eighty percent,
but she needs to improve Quantus's reputation. Now its score
(10:46):
as assessed by rep track, which is basically the industry
standard for this, it used to be in the strong
to excellent range all the time. It's now in the
average range, and so her goal is to get that
back to strong to excellent. According to rep track.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Sean employment platforms SEEK this is quite a good one
has unveiled its latest list of hot jobs, the roles
that are currently most in demand on the site, and
coming in at number one, it's podcasters, does not, that's it.
It's admin and office support roles. No one wants to
be a podcaster.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
No no.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
Then comes support workers in healthcare, educators and teachers, and
next then store manages, accountants, nurses, truck drivers, electricians, and chefs.
What I like about this it's kind of real world jobs.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
That's realistic.
Speaker 2 (11:39):
Yeah yeah, yeah yeah.
Speaker 3 (11:41):
So the data shows that demand for health and care
related roles continues to grow, according to SEEK, part of
that's demographic baby boom is getting older. Part of that's
people more health conscious. Partly it's driven by the ndis spending.
The jump in demand for truck drivers. Any thoughts on
why that's the case, Seek told us, So I've got
the answer.
Speaker 1 (12:00):
Ah, well, I would assume because we are ordering so
e commerce and everything.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, So that's part of it.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
The other part is the big pick up in infrastructure projects.
Also housing that helps, but online delivery is a big
part of it.
Speaker 1 (12:13):
Oh, there you go. Turning to international news now shown in.
The Ukrainian capital came under a quote massive attack by
Russia over the weekend, with hundreds of drones and missiles
used in the latest wave of attacks across the country.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
On Saturday, Ukraine's president Vladimir Zelensky warned that Russia would
not stop with his country, which is why it was
testing European air defenses with the recent incursions in several
countries belonging to the NATO military Alliance. According to Bloomberg,
in Poland, for example, jets were scrambled over the weekend
as Russia hit western Ukraine, which is on the Polish border.
The Polish military further described the actions which have become
(12:50):
routine since Polish and NATO aircraft shot down three Russian
drones in Poland's airspace a couple of weeks ago as preventative.
Moscow denied responsibility after Denmark said drones were flown over
its airports. Denmark itself has said the instance appeared to
be the work of a professional actor, without specifying who
this may be. And Estonia has accused Russia violating its
(13:11):
airspace with warplanes. Donald Trump has gone as far as
to say that NATO nations should shoot down Russian planes
in their airspace.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
Definitely.
Speaker 3 (13:20):
Vladimir Putin is pushing the boundaries here, and it's a
very very tense situation.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
Yeah, it certainly is, all right, a lighter one to
finish on now shine. Hundreds of coffee shops the size
of shipping containers are springing up along US roadways. The
goal here, the purpose is to serve Americans who want
to drive through caffeine.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Fixed.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
This thing's just going game busters. So there's a bunch
of drive through change now. Dutch Brothers, Seven Brew, big
Bie Coffee, Scooters, Coffee, Black Rock Coffee Bar. They're basically
changing US food and beverage sector with an absolute obsessive
focus on speedy service.
Speaker 2 (14:00):
Of them don't have seats.
Speaker 1 (14:01):
You know, they could just focus on quality first.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I don't mean to beg such a cynic.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
The kitchen areas as small as three hundred and fifty
square feet, so you can't move much in there, but
you don't want to move much because you need to
be fast. The drive through model, interestingly, is in total
contrast to Starbucks, which is, of course the biggest coffee chain.
It's investing heavily to make stor interiors more inviting places
to connect and gather. We did that story a few
months ago. They want to get people back into Starbucks now.
(14:33):
According to the FT, fewer than half of starbucks seventeen
thousand US stores featured drive through windows. Yet a record
fifty nine percent of US consumers who bought a cup
of coffee last year picked it.
Speaker 2 (14:45):
Up at a drive through.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
Amazing, that's huge, Shares of Dust Brothers, the largest list
of drive through coffee specialists is up sixty four percent
over the past year. Starbucks is down fourteen percent, and
there are now about thirty three and a half thousand
coffee chain shops in the US, including drive throughs. With
all the boom and with the growth boom in drive throughs.
Speaker 1 (15:05):
Okay, there we go.
Speaker 2 (15:07):
Up.
Speaker 1 (15:07):
Next is Fear and Greed Q and a I mentioned
it before. It is essentially Fear and Greed the week Ahead,
the Old week Ahead with the kuk Our Resident Economist.
It is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au,
which is also where you sign up for our free
daily newsletter, which, Sean, is another thing that is just
going gangbusters at the moment.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
It's all that excellent content in there. Michael.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
Oh, it certainly is, and it's in your inbox every
morning by six am. Why wouldn't you sign up? Thank
you very much, Sean.
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Thanks Michael.
Speaker 1 (15:36):
It is Monday, the twenty ninth of September twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online
on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson
And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.