Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
Australia gets caught up in the crossfire between the US
and China. Interest rates are set to fall this afternoon,
though most homelan borrowers won't cut repayments, and archaeologists discover
an ancient Peruvian city, Plus suggestions that a UK subsidiary
of Origin Energy could demerge sparks the local company's share price.
(00:30):
And Donald Trump hits back at Elon Musk's plans for
a new political party. It's Tuesday, the eighth of July
twenty twenty five. I'm Adam Lang and good morning, Sean Almer.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Good morning, Adam. Something for everyone this morning. From Peruvian
cities to US, fights between best buddies and interest rates.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
It's got it all jam packed.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
A bit like the newsletter this morning, Adam.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
It's a ripper now. The main story this morning, Sean.
Australia is getting caught up in the crossfire between the
world's two biggest economies, the US and China, with America
set to impose a ten percent tariff on ossie goods
just as Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi heads to Beijing.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
The Trump administration started sending out tariff letters as they
put it to countries overnight, and Australia is likely to
be stuck with a ten percent impost on goods and
services sold into the US. Because Australia has not negotiated
a new tariff arrangement with Washington, we're likely to receive
our original tariff, which is the lowest rate of ten percent. That's,
(01:34):
of course, because Australia sells less to the US than
we buy from it. Countries are rushing to do deals
with the Trump administration. With the July nine deadline almost here.
Having said that, Donald Trump twenty four hours ago or
so said he was about to send letters out overnight.
The new tariff's are due to kick off on one August.
Donald Trump said he'll also add that any country aligning
(01:59):
itself with the bricks Nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa, we'll face an additional ten percent tariff, saying
there'll be no exceptions to that. Now, I'm not sure
what that actually means in in Australia, it's definitely a
ligned to China when it comes to iron ore, for example,
does that mean we're getting an extra ten percent. I
don't think so, just another one of those Donald Trump
(02:22):
things which probably we need to see the details before
we quite understand what it means.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
Yeah, and I wonder how much detail is in that
Tara fletter, Sean, it's not exactly the kind of letter
you really want to receive.
Speaker 2 (02:33):
No, probably not, but I mean actually, US Treasury Secretary
Scott Bessett also made the comment on the media on
one of the news shows in the US that yes,
while this is all being implemented, it's not really the
final decision.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
So who knows what and this is all happening. As
Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi heads to China this week, with
Beijing suggesting an expansion the free trade Agreement to include
artificial intelligence and the digital economy.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
So Beijing's top diplomat in Australia, Jiao Chang, yesterday suggested
that deepening economic ties between the two countries could boost
our economy. Writing in the fin Review, he said relations
between Australia and China have stabilized and improved, achieving a
comprehensive turnaround, but now it's time to take the next step.
(03:25):
In some critical parts of the global economy, notably critical minerals,
electric vehicles, semiconductors, artificial intelligence. Countries like Australia have two
primary options. In fact, most countries only have two options.
Team up with the US or team up with China. Thus,
fire Australia has been very US focused, but the Trump
administration has given Canberra reason to think about that. The
(03:50):
Ambassador's comments come as Anthony Alberanezi is due to meet
President Jijing Ping during his week long trip to China,
which has a very heavy trade and investment focus. In fact,
the number of business leaders people like mcquarie's Shamara Wick,
Ramana Yaka for Deescu's Andrew Forrest and Bluescopes Mark Vasella
joining the Prime Minister on that trip. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader
(04:10):
Susan Lee said Australia should be wary of expanding any
free trade deal with China to include AI and the
digital economy. She also said that the Liberal Party needs
to change course on its messaging and policies for Australian
Chinese communities. That's a bit of an aside. The main
point here really is whether or not the free trade
agreement between China and Australia should expand to include things
(04:32):
like critical minerals and the Digital Economy SEAN.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Alongside this, interest rates are on the way down, including
a probable cut at two thirty pm today, but homelan
borrowers are mostly opting to keep repayment levels unchanged, effectively
paying more than the minimum requirement off their mortgages.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Which of course means that you repay your loan sooner.
I think it's a very good investment strategy. According to
the big banks, only ten percent of borrowers lowered their
home loan repayment after the May rate cut, which was
in line with what happened after the February rate cut.
A zed Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank ask customers
to opt into lower payments after rate cuts. According to
(05:12):
the fin Review, Westpac, in contrast, automatically reduces the home
loan repayments, so if you don't opt in to cut
your home loan repayments, you just keep paying that amount.
And what's commonoff bank estimates is with a five hundred
thousand dollars mortgage, you'll be saving about one hundred and
sixty dollars a month from the two rate cuts this year.
(05:33):
If you bank three rate cuts, this year over thirty years,
you're saving yourself close to two hundred thousand dollars, so,
as I said, very good investment strategy. Financial markets and
economists agree there is very likely to be a rate
cut this afternoon, followed by two or three later in
the year.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Sean between the US tariffs, China and US trade and
how to save money off your mortgage. This has definitely
been business news you can use. Will be back in
a moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Victorian Premier Jacina Allen says her government is preparing to
(06:08):
introduce legislation to ban face coverings, attachment devices and terror
symbols of protests, and this is following a spate of
antisemitic attacks.
Speaker 2 (06:18):
Allan visited the East Melbourne Synagogue yesterday after it was
allegedly fire bombed on Friday. She pledged mental health support
for the congregants and said her government is establishing an
anti hate task Force. The task force will discuss how
the government can give police further powers to crack down
on extremist behavior at rallies.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Sean moving on to Origin Energy. It's share price jumped
six and a half percent after reports over the weekend.
The UK startup Octopus Energy, of which Origin has a
twenty three percent stake in it. It's planning to demerge
its technology arm.
Speaker 2 (06:53):
The technology arm called Kraken KRK and that is a
cracking name for well, for anything, especially teak armmus It's ominous.
It's a standalone entity. It could be valuated up to
fifteen billion dollars according to UK media reports. That would
value Origin stake at about three and a half billion OSIM.
Octopus is Britain's largest energy retailer now. Craken, which is
(07:18):
part of Octopus, is an aipowered operating system which is
licensed to other energy providers, water companies and telecom supplies.
Speaker 1 (07:25):
Sean, I love that Octopus and Cracking together. What a
great set of names.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Yeah, I like it.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Moving on to another name, Sean Star Entertainment. It has
postponed any final decision on the sale of its stake
in Brisbane's new Queen's Warf casino and hotel complex. And
this isn't the postponement as until the end of the month.
But if the deal doesn't go ahead then Star will
have to pay thirty seven million dollars.
Speaker 2 (07:50):
Chow Tai Fook Enterprises and Far East Consortium, which each
only twenty five percent of the Brisbane precinct, planned to
buy Star's Steak Now. Last week they threatened to walk
away from the deal, which was struck a few months
back when the gaming group was desperate for cash. Yesterday,
Star said the investors had agreed to postpone a final
call on the deal until the end of the month.
(08:13):
Starr also told us that if a deal isn't reached,
it will be up to thirty six point five million
dollars in September, so obviously they want to reach a
deal on that one.
Speaker 1 (08:23):
Fairly good incentive to do a deal. Gold stocks were
the big winners in the twenty twenty five financial year Shawn,
but the precarious nature of their success was demonstrated yesterday
when market leader Northern Star said output would be at
the lower end of its forecast range, and that sent
its share price down more than nine percent.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
In fact, it was the worst performing stocks on the
ASEX two hundred. North Northern Star also outlined plans to
burst capital expenditure to increase output, not news that investors liked. Meanwhile,
Beaview Bellevue Gold, another gold company, reported strong production rates,
its share price jump two percent. Reach Resources, yet another
gold digger produced gold at the top end of its
(09:03):
guidance range. They were share price finished two percent. Very
figgle industry gold at the moment, Adam.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
A fair amount of movement Sean. But overall, how did
the local markets perform us today? Well?
Speaker 2 (09:13):
The SMPA six two hundred finished down a touch zero
point two percent in fact, to eight thousand, five hundred
and eighty nine points. Utilities did best on a relatively
quiet day, while material stocks were worst. Among the large caps.
All the big banks for Lower West Farmers fell two percent.
Woodside and transurb And were both off one percent. SSL
was the best performer of the large caps, at least,
up more than two percent Sean.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
In other corporate news, lifestyle communities entered a trading halt
ahead of an announcement in connection with proceedings currently before
the Victorian Civil and Administrative Tribunal. The tribunal in the
afternoon found that the group had been charging residents significant
exit fees without properly disclosing them and they must be scrapped.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
Now, Adam, I know you have an elderly parent parent
and these sorts of things with groups like lifestyle communities
that impact a lot of people, and a lot of
families get very upset about it. So be interesting to see.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
It's really emotional.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
Yeah, it'd be interesting to see what their share price. See, Adam,
there is I'm worried about the share price. You're much
nicer than me. You're actually you're actually interested in the
emotional impact of it.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
Well, I think they're linked, you know, one to the other.
All those customers who worry may be worried about the company.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
Yeah, the share price going down, and I own shares.
I'm worried.
Speaker 1 (10:32):
Too.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
Worries not one anyway, moving on lessa my mum might
be listening. I don't really want to hear that. But
what else is going on in the market. Yesterday, points Bet,
which has operations in both Australia and Canada, said that
the Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario has approved the
bookmakers takeover by Japanese gaming giant Mixy and South thirty two.
The diversified minor it rose after announcing it had entered
(10:54):
into an agreement to sell its Colombian nickel mine Siero
Mitoso to global industrial conglomerate Correx for one hundred and
fifty three million dollars.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
Sean on global markets. Fuel prices are set to fall
after OPEC plus accelerated plans to lift output, and that
triggered fears of an oversupply coming.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Yes, so it depends on how you look at this
As an oil supplier. You might not like the idea
of a glut coming. As a user, thinking when they
put spectrol into the car, I think it's somewhat more
attractive at them somehow.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
Do you agree I'm feeling that short, Yeah, it.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
Should put downward pressure on prices. Over the weekend, OPEC
plus spent a whole ten minutes on a video core
agreeing to up output. Now, part of that is pressure
from Donald Trump, who's calling for lower fuel costs. They
agreed to put it up. In the short term, analysts
say the market's tight, so probably the increase can be
(11:52):
absorbed without hitting prices much. But the northern winter's coming.
The southern winter, sorry, the southern winter, the northern summer.
I got that flip round the wrong way. The northern
summer is crazy because a bunch of Americans jump in cars,
fill them up, drive around, have holidays. So in the
(12:12):
northern winter, they're not doing that, so you actually see
demand drop. And the point is, if you've got this
big increase in supply plus the northern winter therefore lower demand,
you couldn't end up with the sharp fallum prices.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Sean between a drop in fuel prices coming and an
interest rate drop. This could be our best news episode
and newsletter ever.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Well, it could. And if you listen to Stephen Coculus
in the Weakerhead yesterday, he kind of said something along
the same lines. He was talking about the fact that
the economy for twenty twenty six is kind of looking
pretty good. He didn't mention petrol prices, but you can
throw that in. Certainly we've got lower interest rates coming,
and the economy's sort of picking up. I mean, it
(13:00):
hasn't been doing so well and certainly not in the
mass quarter, but it is definitely picking up.
Speaker 1 (13:04):
That sounds like cautious optimism to me, shown.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
The dismal scientists among the economists.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
In international news. Donald Trump has lashed out at Elon
Musk after the billionaire unveiled plans to launch a new
US political party, where Trump called Musk a train wreck.
In an escalation of the feud between the US President
and his former buddy.
Speaker 2 (13:29):
You know, I haven't been on the show for a
week or so because I had a bit of a break.
Yet I come back and kind of the story normal.
Musk has criticized Trump's flagship One Big Beautiful Bill, which
the President signed into law last week, accusing the administration
of bankrupting the country because the law is projected to
(13:50):
add more than three trillion US dollars to the US
debt over the next decade. Now I have the weekend,
Musk announced he would form a new party called America Party.
Not a lot of details on it, so but take
him out his word. Trump hit back, writing on his
Truth social platform that he was and I quote Sadden
to watch Elon Musk go completely off the rails, essentially
(14:13):
becoming a train wreck over the past five weeks. End
quote end of story.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
Let's alright, Shawn. And finally, archaeologists have announced the discovery
of an ancient city in Peru's northern Barhanka province.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
The thirty five hundred year old city named Pernico, is
believed to have served as a key trading hub connecting
early Pacific Coast communities with those living in the Andes
Mountains and Amazon Basin. Located some two hundred kilometers north
of Lima, the site lies about six hundred meters above
sea level. It's thought to have been founded between eighteen
(14:50):
hundred and fifteen hundred BC, around the same time that
early civilizations were flourishing in the Middle Eastern Asia. According
to the BBC, researchers say that discovery sheds light on
what became of America's oldest civilization, the Corral Let's see Aral.
He was established about five thousand years ago. Eight years
(15:10):
of research at the site unearthed eighteen structures, including ceremonial
temples and residential complexes. Now, I know that we can't
say they've discovered a new city yesterday. It's not quite that.
But I still think the fact that, you know, they've
spent eight years excavating and realizing that this is a
whole new city is pretty phenomenal.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Especially for a business news podcast. Sewan three five hundred
year old market economy that's just been discovered. That's awesome.
That is awesome.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
I'm with you.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
It's romance in my world. Sure, it's the sad world
that you live in. Adam all right. Immediately after the show.
Stay listening for Sean's chat with Guy Callahan. He is
the CEO of Banjo Liones. Sean tell us about the interview.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
A lovely fellow guy. We just sit there and talk
about the state of the small and medium sized business
sector as we go into a twenty twenty six financial year.
Is not great, is the bottom line, and we talk
about which sectors are doing better than others. But he
has some really practical advice about how to get yourself
ready for the next twelve months, just around finance and
(16:20):
around organizing yourself and what help is available and what's
not available, and particularly what's not available. There's not a
lot of government help at the moment, but there is
plenty of other places you can get help, So definitely
well worth a listen.
Speaker 1 (16:33):
Thank you Sean, and you can read about that in
our daily newsletter. If you've not joined up already, go
to our website and sign on. That's up next in
the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or
at Fearngreed dot com dot au. Thank you Sean, Thank
you Adam. It's Tuesday, the eighth of July twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast, Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
(16:54):
x TikTok and Facebook and have a great day.