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September 29, 2025 19 mins

Tuesday 30 September 2025

The federal budget deficit comes in much lower than forecast. 

And more, including:

  • Optus suffers another triple-zero outage ahead of a meeting between its owner and the government. 
  • Home loan wars heat up
  • The world’s highest bridge, more than 600 metres high, opens to traffic. 
  • The medical regulator warns against buying Melatonin online.

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The federal budget deficit comes in much lower than forecasts.
Optus suffers another triple zero outage ahead of a meeting
between its owner and the government, and the world's highest
bridge more than six hundred meters up opens to traffic,
plus home loan wars heat up, and the medical regulator

(00:27):
warns against buying melatonin online. It is Tuesday, the thirtieth
of September twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,
Sean Aylmer.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Good morning, Michael, Sean.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
The main story this morning, the underlying federal budget deficit
for the last financial year has come in at ten
billion dollars. That's well below the forecast of twenty seven
point nine billion dollars, and it's on the back of
higher tax receipts due to the strong employment market.

Speaker 2 (00:54):
More jobs than Michael needs, more income tax and that's
good for the government's coffers. The labor market is better
than forecast receipts, with thirteen billion dollars higher overall, and
our apart from that income tax jump, company tax receipts
were also higher. There were higher contributions from superfunds. Superfunds
have done really well over the past financial year. As

(01:14):
a result, the tax they pay increases. Payments are also
about four point six billion dollars lower now. A big
chunk of that relates to national partnership payments with the States.
Treasure Jim Chalmers says Australia now has one of these
strongest economies in the G twenty, saying that in dollar terms,
it's the biggest ever positive improvement in the budget in

(01:35):
a single parliamentary term, which is kind of something Michael
that politicians do say when they're trying to work out
the good news in you know, what they're producing.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
Why does it matter, Sean? And just given this was
last financial year, you always tell us to look to
the future, to be forward thinking. Why does it matter
then what the budget deficit was for the last financial year.

Speaker 2 (01:58):
Well, two reasons. One, it's just a stronger starting point
for this financial year. So if you're you know, minus
twenty eight billion dollars and you start the new financial year,
that's kind of your baseline. Now a minus ten billion dollars,
still all of money, but eighteen billion dollars better than
the baseline was going to be so that's good. The
other reason less debt.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
So you know, debt.

Speaker 2 (02:22):
Now is about one hundred and eighty eight Well, according
to charmers, one hundred and eighty eight billion dollars lower
in the year just ended compared to when the government
took power. He calculates, or treasury calculates that sixty billion
dollars less debt interest over the course of the next decade.
It's a lower debt, lower interest payments, that sixty billion
dollars over the next decade. They're the main reasons and

(02:44):
that debt. Sorry, our debt will hit one trillion dollars
at some point this financial year, and our charmers said
it would have already hit that if the federal government
hadn't done what it's done. Some commentators this morning they
all notice the same. Well, actually, the federal government should
have done more, and we should actually have been in
a surplus. Anyway, all up, ten billion dollars is better

(03:05):
than twenty eight billion dollars.

Speaker 1 (03:06):
I was going to ask you about that, because this
is the Albanese government's first budget deficit, and there is
an argument to be made for the fact that it
shouldn't have been a deficit at all. That considering the
tax receipts were so good and there was a significant
jump in government spending that maybe with a little bit
more perhaps fiscal discipline, that it might have been an

(03:29):
even better position than what it was, and that we
wouldn't be talking about a deficit at all.

Speaker 2 (03:34):
Yeah, I mean totally. The underlying deficit is aboutero point
four percent of gross domestic product. If you look over
the last twenty or thirty years, that's a really really
good result. But you know, plenty of money coming in
from companies, from workers, from super funds. You actually had
federal nominal spending jumping about eight percent, So if the
government hadn't spent that much, hadn't increased that much, And

(03:58):
a lot of this was for good reason, So I mean,
no value judgment. They think disability workers, health workers, Remember
the aged care worker's got that big increase social security.
So there's reasons for all that. But you could easily
make the argument the government should have just pulled back
a little bit and we would have been in surplus.

Speaker 1 (04:16):
Do we get to hung up on just the terminology
of surplus and deficit that, in the end of improvement
is an improvement, and whether it or not it's a
surplus or a deficit doesn't really matter in the long run.
It's really just almost more a political point at that point.

Speaker 2 (04:32):
Yes, except it holds the government to account. So I
don't think ten billion dollars surplus or a ten billion
dollar deficit. In the long run, it doesn't actually make
that much of a difference, except that the opponents can
score political points on it. So it does keep some
sort of safeguard on the government allowing it to blow
out too much.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
It gives it finally gives the opposition something to have
a crack at. I haven't had much fun lately have they,
So finally this might actually give them something to score
or a few points over now Sean still in politics broadly,
but Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi arrived in Abu Dhabi for
the final leg of his eleven day work trip yesterday.
He's discussing trade and the Israel Gaza conflicts before continuing

(05:16):
his journey home.

Speaker 2 (05:17):
Australia has signed a free trade deal with the UAE.
We did that last year. It actually starts tomorrow, one October.
The Prime Minister is spending twenty four hours in the country.
As a result, he'll mark the occasion during his meeting
with UA President Sheik Muhammad bin Zayed al Nayan. They're
also expected to discuss progress towards the ceasefire in Israel
against a pending in sort of ahead of the pending

(05:39):
White House meeting between dond Trump and Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Yahu. Overnight, the PM will visit shak Zayed's Grand Mosque,
the largest mosque in Abu Dhabi and a cultural landmark
in the Arab and Islamic world.

Speaker 1 (05:52):
Sean, there's plenty of action in the local share market
at the moment. Defense tech company drone Shield was up
eighteen percent yesterday on the back of NATO boosting air
defense assets. That was in response to drone incursions in
Denmark last week.

Speaker 2 (06:08):
A cool little company. We had them on trained Shields, yeah,
a little while ago. The company itself is up nearly
five hundred percent this year as investors pile into war
stocks amid high defense bending from governments, also the proliferation
of drone attacks. We've heard lots about that this company
tries to create a defense mechanism against drones, and that's

(06:30):
why they're say we're liked at the moment. By the
close yesterday, the smp ASEX two hundred was up nearly
one percent to eighty eight hundred and sixty three points.
Good day for the banks for the Big four, up
between one and a half and two percent. Gold stock
surged at the price of the precious metal pushed above
thirty eight hundred US dollars announced for the first time.
I Think, Evolution Mining, Neumont, Northern Star. They all jumped.

(06:51):
The healthcare stocks also rebounded after Friday Seller following the
US imposing one hundred percent tariffs on drug import. CSL
rose two percent yesterday, recovering most of the ground a
lot last Friday. On the flip side, sluggish steel demand
and mounting inventries in China Wait on the big minus
BHP Fortescue Rea, we're all lower otherwise. In corporate news,
wy SEC founder Richard White has sold another sixty eight

(07:11):
million dollars worth of stock over the last week.

Speaker 1 (07:14):
He's it's been about.

Speaker 2 (07:16):
He has sold about two hundred and forty million dollars
worth of shares in the last month. And battery and
tech company Novonex delivered its first mass production of commercial
grade sample of synthetic graphite for industrial applications to one
of its big US clients. It's share price jumped fifteen
percent yesterday.

Speaker 1 (07:32):
Good on them. Yeah, cracker of a day, Sean. We're
going to take a very quick break while we do that.
Why don't I mean, not you specifically, Sean, but anybody
listening to this head to the link in the show
notes and sign up for our free daily newsletter. I'm
assuming Sean, that you've already signed up, almost as a
quality control kind of thing, have you.

Speaker 2 (07:50):
Well, yes, and I've got a bit to say that
Optus today.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
Yes. Yeah, there's some good editorials in the newsletter, So
sign up while we take a quick break. Back in
a moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Sean the chief executive of Optus's Singaporeian parent company, Singtel.
We'll meet with Federal Communications Minister Annika Wells and Sydney

(08:17):
as the telcost struggles to meet its community obligations.

Speaker 2 (08:21):
The meeting is set to discuss service standards as set
out in the Telecommunications Act and service quality and customer rights.
Optus is also being investigated by the Australian Communications and
Media Authority now opt to suffered another triple zero outage
on Sunday. As I'm sure everyone knows, that left customers
south of Sydney unable to reach the Triple zero network.
Nine calls to the emergency network failed to connect, OPTA

(08:42):
said fortunately all callers were unharmed after their welfare was
confirmed with New South Wales Police and Ambulance Services. The
company Optus hasn't been able to explain why the service
went down as yet. It follows a triple zero network
outage eleven days ago that was responsible for the deaths
of four people. The Federal position is calling for a
review of the whole Triple O ecosystem rather than AKMA

(09:05):
just focusing on Optus. Meanwhile, The Australian is reporting that
government owned nbn Co customers weren't able to drive dial
Triple O on Wi Fi during a separate shutdown in Esperance,
Western Australia on Friday that affected seven hundred households.

Speaker 1 (09:20):
Sewn home loan was between The big landers are back
with aggressive tactics, particularly from Macquarie, triggering better deals for customers,
though much of the competition comes actually away from interest rates.

Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yes, so Commonwealth Bank is offering three hundred thousand quantus
loyalty points for purely online home loan applications. Less than
one in five home loan applications occur purely online, which
is a bit of a surprise given we're a pretty
adept at filling in forms online nowadays. For the banks,
of course, they're much cheaper to handle online applications. You

(09:55):
don't have people involved that include mortgage broker costs, which
Commonwealth Bank in particularly trying to pull away from. Competition
in the home lending market has always been pretty ferocious
that in the past couple of years it's really come
off as interest rates have risen. Now it's heating up again.
That's partly on the back of falling interest rates and
people starting to look around for better home loan deals.

(10:16):
Commonwof Bank has about twenty five percent of the mortgage market,
followed by Westpacket twenty one percent. Mcquarie has more than
six percent of the market, easily the fastest growing of
the major lenders now. After the commonwealf Banks results last month,
Matt Commons said that the bank thinks and worries about
mcquarie at least as much as Westpac National Australia Bank

(10:37):
and A and Z. It really is holding the big
four majors to account. Mcquarie among the other majors. Ain
Z is still offering a three thousand dollars cash back
for first home buyers, but analysts expect to see some
better deals for customers coming through in the next couple
of months now.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
Net Wealth says it's working with regulators, liquidatas and relevant
stakeholders to find a solution for the people who invested
in the failed First Guardian master fund on a platform
it oversaw, though significantly it hasn't promised to compensate investors.

Speaker 2 (11:11):
Okay, so this is a story which might sound as
if we're getting in the weeds a little bit, but
for many of us, it is a very very important story.
It's becoming a really big issue for the platform providers.
What are they, Well, they're the guys that administer and
facilitate investor options for investors. So a DIY superfund would

(11:32):
use the platform provider. Many investors use a platform provider.
They give you access to manage investment schemes, etf shares,
term deposits, a whole lot. So they're kind of like
the black box that you invest in. The thing is
when a platform form provider gives a list of the
options you can invest in, there's kind of like an

(11:53):
implicit stamp of approval for any of those investments that
sit on the platform. So what happens if that investment
far as in the case of First Guarding that you
just mentioned, should the platform in this case net Wealth
be responsible? Do they have responsibility to compensate investors for
their losses? Last week, remember there was a landmark deal
between ASEK and McQuary Group over the failed Shield Master Trust.

(12:16):
Mcquarie agreed to repay all of three hundred and twenty
one million dollars to around three thousand clients who used
its Wrap platform to invest in Shield and lost out.
So this one net Wealth that's the platform First Guardian
Master has failed. Now they haven't actually said we're going
to repay customers, and it's much easier for the one

(12:36):
hundred billion dollar Maquarry to repay than someone much smaller
than net Wealth. But it's a really important issue in
financial markets right now about how much responsibility these platforms
have given so many of us use them.

Speaker 1 (12:52):
It is one of those ones that the significance of
it isn't immediately apparent. But then as soon as you
listen to an explanation like that, they're like, oh, okay,
this is it's a big deal.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
I'm taking that as a compliment. Michael. I was halfway
through that. I'm thinking, oh, his eyes are rolling a
little bit. No, No, he's staying with me.

Speaker 1 (13:09):
He's saying nothing percent with you. Because this is that's
the thing like that, that there is an element of
trust right that you go, Okay, what I'm doing here
is the right thing for me, and when when it
falls over in the way that this has suddenly that
trust is damaged. Yeah, and it absolutely makes sense to
spend a little bit of time exploring those and trying

(13:29):
to explain it because for a lot of people it's
a really really concerning story. Sean, can we talk about melotonin?

Speaker 2 (13:36):
We can?

Speaker 1 (13:36):
It is melotonin? Go on, yeah, yeah, we go from
a story that you thought was putting me to sleep
to a story that is actually about sleep. Melotonin from
some online suppliers has been found to have as much
as four times the amount of the active ingredient advertised,
or even no melotonin at all, according to testing by

(13:58):
the National Drug Regulator.

Speaker 2 (14:00):
So Melatanin is used by many Australians to improve their
sleep and a new safety note the Therapeutic Goods Administration
said patients should stop using unregistered imported melotanin products immediately
after testing in its laboratories indicated significant discrepancies between the
actual meltanin amount and what's on the label, in one case,

(14:21):
four hundred percent more melatonin. According to the ABC, almost
a dozen different products examined by the TGA were found
to have significantly more or less melatonin than the labeled amount.
Melatonin is a hormone that regulates the sleep wake cycle.
A prescription is technically required to use melatanea in Australia
only prove limited circumstances. However, it can be bought online

(14:44):
really easily from overseas retailers. It's off the shelf in
many overseas countries as well. They even have like gummies
Melatonin and gummies Michael which can be taken really easily
by kids and stuff like that. So the regulator he
wants to crack down on this one.

Speaker 1 (15:01):
Yeah, yeah, and look you have seen this one coming.
The parenting forums have been in an uproar over this
now for a little while because about a month ago
I Herb, which is one of the big online health retailers,
announced that it would stop selling melatonin into Australia. And
now that this note has come through from the Therapeutic

(15:23):
Goods Administration, it's making it less and less likely that
that trade will be able to begin at any point
in the near future. Sean, turning to international news now,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjaminettaniahu and US President Donald Trump met
overnight amid comment from Washington, an ambitious plan to end
the war in Gaza is nearly complete.

Speaker 2 (15:44):
The meeting, the fourth between the two allies since Trump
took office in January, comes after the President shed a
twenty one point proposal aimed at concluding the Israel Hamas
conflict with other regional heads in New York last week.
Trump on social media said, we have a real chance
greatness in the Middle East. All are on board for
something special, first time ever. We will get it done. Now,

(16:06):
his claims don't always pan out. Let's be honest, and
both Israel and Hamas say they need to study the
plan over the weekend. The senior Israeli official told US
editors in a background briefing that only after the Monday meeting.
Last night's meeting with Israel comment, Hamas said it hasn't
even seen the plan yet. Media reports suggested under proposal,
Hamas would release all forty eight living and dead hostages

(16:26):
within the next couple of days, while Israeli military operations
will cease and its troops gradually withdraw. Israel would agree
to free Palestinian prisoners and allow significantly more aid to
enter Gaza. If it's true, it is a great breakthrough,
but I wouldn't hold your breath.

Speaker 1 (16:43):
Last one Jean, China has officially opened the world's highest
bridge to the public. It is towering six hundred and
twenty five meters above a gorge in the country southwest.
My hands are sweating just thinking about it. You would
not be able to get me under this.

Speaker 2 (17:00):
Oh have you seen the videos? Yes, it is terrifying,
absolutely terrifying. So the bridge itself, it's called the Huajong
Grand Kenyon Bridge. It actually cuts travel time between the
canyon's two sides from two hours to two minutes. It's
one and a half kilometers long, ninety three segments weighing

(17:21):
a collective of twenty two thousand tons, nine times higher
than the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, twice the
height of the Eiffel Tower. Now the videos that you
can see online, it's basically a testing team drove ninety
six trucks onto designated points to test the bridge's structural integrity.
He'd like to be a truck driver in that instance.

Speaker 1 (17:44):
Just checking what your assignment is for the day, Like, oh, no,
I'm of the testing team.

Speaker 2 (17:49):
Oh didn't they do that on the harbor at Sydney
Harbor Bridge, you know, in the thirties or whenever it
was that it was opened. They put a bunch of
buses on it to make sure it didn't fall a train.

Speaker 1 (17:58):
Yeah, yeah, both.

Speaker 2 (17:59):
Anyway, this new bridge has set a record for both
the world's highest bridge and largest span bridge built in
a mountainous area.

Speaker 1 (18:08):
Google it It is world worth look certainly is Sean.
Coming up next is Fear and Greed Q and A
our guest today. Two guests today in one interview, Tim Steele,
the chief executive of Class and Meg Hefron, the managing
director of Hefron, talking about self managed super funds because
the sector has surged past one point five trillion dollars

(18:29):
in assets in the last financial year and a huge
increase in the number of people who are setting up smsfs,
and so just looking at the reasons for the growth
in that space, it is an interesting conversation. Sean.

Speaker 2 (18:42):
Yes, that platform story very relevant to all those people.

Speaker 1 (18:46):
Yeah. No, you're absolutely right, Sean. It is coming up
next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast
platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au. Thank you
very much, Sean.

Speaker 2 (18:55):
Thank you, Michael.

Speaker 1 (18:55):
It is Tuesday, the thirtieth of September twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael
Thompson and that was Fhear and Greed. Have a great day.
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