Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The federal government outlines lower deficits in coming years in
its midyear budget review, but does little to improve the
fiscal outlook. The first funerals for the victims of the
Bondai Beach massacre are held, and Penfold's owner, Treasury Wine
Estates admits near defeat in the US and China. Plus
(00:26):
the competition regulator sues Hello Fresh, and Tesla's share price
hits a new high on the back of Robotaxis. It
is Thursday, the eighteenth of December twenty twenty five. Are
Michael Thompson and Good Morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael,
Seawan The main story this morning. The federal government has
forecast higher inflation and slower economic growth in its mid
(00:47):
year budget update, but also a lower than forecast deficit
thanks to a higher tax take, a surge in taxes
on income companies and superannuation accounts, plus some longer term
speed ending restraint has improved the federal budget and reduced
government debt by almost thirty billion dollars. That's right.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
The twenty twenty five twenty six a midyear budget update
released yesterday by Treasurer Jim Charmers and Finance Minister Katie
Gallagher shows this year's deficit will be five point three
billion dollars, lower than they expected when the budget was
originally released. That's thanks to a jump in income tax,
company tax and superannuation tax, reflecting a stronger economy and
(01:28):
solid gains and share markets over the next three years,
Treasury is forecasting cumulative deficits of about one hundred and
forty three billion dollars. Then we thought they were going
to be one hundred and fifty two billion dollars. So
you know, one hundred and fifty two hundred and forty
three nine billion dollars. It's better. Each deficit is slightly
smaller than previously expected. However, the governor has downgraded the
tobacco excis take by twenty five percent. This year alone,
(01:49):
tobacco excis is expected to collect to five point five
billion dollars, the smallest tax take on cigarettes in twenty years.
The government's also forecasting lower debt levels by the end
of this financial year, from the previously expected one trillion
dollars to about nine hundred and ninety billion dollars. Good
news there, Charmers and Galligher called it the most responsible
midyear update on record.
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Much of the talk before my EFO, as much as
people were gossiping, I suppose about my EFO, it was
about how much the federal government is contributing to the economy.
The critics say it's spending too much. But government spending
is slightly lower than had been forecast at twenty six
point nine percent of GDP.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yes, so it is better. But apart from the pandemic,
it is the highest share of the economy since nineteen
eighty six eighty seven, and it's forecast to stay at
this sort of level for much of the decade. That
suggests that it's not doing a very good job. To
shift out of propping up the economy. There are savings
from fuel tax credit systems, the government's home battery programs
(02:55):
that savings. There also this cuts to travel, cuts to
the use of consultants in cuts to payments out of
the Housing Australian Future Fund. However, there's new spending going
cause Mountain as a copper smelter, whaleless seal works, revamped
superannuation changes targeting low income earners. There's also money for
SIRO non government schools and support for cares, and.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
What about the economic growth forecasters quickly we'll.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
Treasury downgraded expectations for growth next financial year, though unchanged
this financial year sharply lift inflation. That's kind of the
big one there. Unemployment's been revised upward from four point
twenty five percent to four and a half percent in
the next couple of years. No change to the government's
forecast for net overseas migration. All in all, certainly didn't
knock it out of the park. Probably a fairly set
(03:40):
of numbers that we probably expected. Not much fiscal repair.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
Though, okay, and not much on the EVS as we
were inspecting to.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
So so maybe you and I have to duck out
and buy an EV Mike.
Speaker 1 (03:53):
There is still time, as we discussed earlier in the week, Sean, Okay.
So there's quite a bit in all of that, isn't it.
And overall relatively positive outlook.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
Yeah, yeah, I mean it's so solid. Well, I mean,
the disappointing thing about the government is it not doing
any fiscal repair. When you've got twenty seven percent government
spending twenty sevenercent of GDP over the next four or
five six years, that's too high. At some point you
have to rein it in and that's probably the disappointment.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
All right, Okay, Now, the first funerals yesterday Sean were
held for the Bondai Beach massacre victims. It was a
very very emotional day in which former Treasurer Josh Friedenberg
said Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi should accept personal responsibility for
the killings and he called for a Royal commission into
(04:44):
anti Semitism.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
Yes a very tough day for many people. Six funerals
were held. Rabbi Eli Schlanger was remembered as a man
of endless self sacrificed. Families that the murdered were being
allowed to visit the site and the area around Bondi
Beach is expected to reopen today. Freedenberg in Bondi appeared
angry and about what had happened and claimed that the
(05:07):
Prime Minister had allowed Australia to be radicalized on his watch.
He went on to say it is time for him
to accept personal responsibility for the death of fifteen innocent people,
including a ten year old child. Freedenberg also called for
a royal commission into the massacre. Senior members of the
Federal government yesterday agreed that more needed to be done
to combat anti Semitism, as did New South Wales state
(05:28):
Premier Chris Mins. Also yesterday, the younger suspected shooter, Navid Akram,
awoke from a kama. He was hit with fifty nine charges,
including fifteen counts of murder and one count to commit
a terrorist act. Akram was also charged with forty counts
of cause wounding to person with intent to murder, one
count of discharging firearm intending to cause grievous bodily harm,
(05:52):
one count of cause public display of prohibited terrorist organization symbol,
and one count of placing an explosive in or near
a building with intent to cause harm.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Okay, we'll take a quick break back in a moment
with the rest of the day's business news. Shawn Treasury
Wine Estates will start a cost reduction program and rain
in its growth in China and the United States, which
are two of its biggest markets, after a sharper than
(06:23):
expected slow down in global wine demand.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
OUCH this must hurt shareholders the penfolds own It said
it expected first half twenty twenty six earnings to be
about thirty percent below consensus expectations. Chief executive Sam fisher
Well commenced a cost reduction program to slave by one
hundred million dollars a year. The United States. Earnings in
particular were below what was expected. In fact, they were
down by over fifty percent. Now. Earlier in the month
(06:48):
of the company announced that it would write down at least
eight hundred and sixty seven million dollars from the value
of its North American business. Treasury said it will take
deliberate strategic action to pretend brand to protect brand equity.
It'll cut shipments of seven hundred cases of wine across
China and the US in the big destabilized prices. After
(07:08):
yesterday's nine percent share price tumble, the stock is off
fifty six percent so far this year and Treasury looks
like winning the unwanted title of worst performing ASEX two
hundred company for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
That's extraordinary. And cutting that amount of wine being exported
seven hundred thousand cases across China and the US, I mean,
what do they do with that? Does it kind of
just sit there now and wait or does it enter
the Australian market or go to new markets?
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Yeah, I mean some will sit and wait and you
know aged Penfolds wine ain't bad, but some will definitely
flow to new markets. The demand just isn't there like
demand has really. Global demand for wine has fallen and
pen Folds is feeling the pain.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
Yeah. Indeed, the rest of the AX, where do we
finish up? Yesterday?
Speaker 2 (07:58):
As in PAX two hundred close slightly lower to eight thousand,
five hundred and eighty five points. Ten of the eleven
sectors were lower, led by the energy stocks of note.
Grain Court share price tumbled fifteen percent after it said
it will sell its interest in Grains Connect Canada. It
marks an exit from the Canadian bolk grain handling market
after a period of pretty week performance.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Now, the competition regulator is suing home meal delivery company
Hello Fresh in federal court for allegedly misleading more than
one hundred thousand consumers over subscriptions.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has launched proceedings against
grocery delivery E Services Australia Proprietary Limited, which is the
proper name for Holofresh, and a group called U Foods
Proprietary Limited. They're both owned by the German based meal
kit company. The atrible C said It started an investigation
into Holofresh and New Foods in October last year after
(08:52):
receiving numerous consumer complaints. The regulator's alleged that Hello Fresh
and U Foods breached the consumer laws by advertising that
new customers could easily cancel subscriptions before a specified cutoff time,
but over one hundred and one thousand consumers which charged
the first order despite canceling their subscription for the cutoff.
(09:14):
That's one hundred and one thousand consumers who could be
up for a refund. Consumer and fair trading issues in
the digital economy and in the supermarket retail sectors are
among the HBC's enforcement priorities this year. Hello Fresh fits
into both.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
White Fox Boutique, the family run past Paally Pearl Empire,
the owner of Robin's Kitchen and House, and Bob Jayne
Corporation are on a list of twelve large Australian companies
that have been hit with infringement notices from the corporate
regulator for failing to lodge financial reports on time.
Speaker 2 (09:49):
There are several fashion companies in the Australia and Securities
Investments Commissions that name and shame file for private businesses
skirting their reporting obligations. Now. Some have subsequently lodged results
include Luctually Jeweler, Paspali, Paspali Pasparali, Michael past Paley.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
Past Paley. I've spent the last day or so watching
a series of videos about it because it's just fascinating
the history of pearling in Australia and they are kind
of the original. It's just a fascinating business. And I
went down one of those rabbit holes well as we
often do when we're talking about these stories.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Yeah, so Paspally has lodged their accounts so just late. Now,
the youngest son of retail billionaire Solomon Lui, Steven appeared
for his company Global Retail Brands that owns Robin's Kitchen
and House. I finally had a lodge financial statement. Doesn't
mean there's any corporate wrongdoing or taxivation. They're just late, basically.
Some companies have been fined, including McCain Foods, which have
turned over more than one point two billion dollars. The
(10:45):
Frozen Vegetable company previously avoided lodging its profits because of
grandfathering provisions for large companies that existed before the Corporations
Act was changed. It's kind of got caught up in
that one. At the end of the day, however, if
you are a private company, you have to lodge your
financial statements on time.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
Yeah, pretty simple in the end, turn into international news.
Now in global markets, oil fell to its lowest point
in five years after a solid, if unspectacular jobs report
in the US and renewed hopes of a deal in
Ukraine that could see restrictions eased on Russian oil exports.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
Oils down below sixty US dollars a barrel after that information,
the jobs data and the speculation around Ukraine. Now, the
unemployment rate in the US ticked up from four point
four percent to four point six percent, but the actual
market still looks reasonably sold solid. The price of goal
has pushed above four three hundred US dollars announced the
(11:43):
UZI dollars about sixty six and a half US CeNSE. Meanwhile,
Westpac has warned that the iron ore price could drop
twenty percent next year as China cuts its steel output
and a wave of fresh supply hits the market. Very
important for Australia, of course, because we make lots of money.
The government makes lots of money out of iron ore exports.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Absolutely and Tesla's share price has hit a record, surpassing
its prior all time high reached almost a year ago,
valuing the company at one point five to four trillion
US dollars.
Speaker 2 (12:11):
Not bad. Shares jumped after CEO Elon Musk said Tesla
has been testing driverless vehicles in Texas with no occupants
on board. Now you would think driverless vehicles it didn't
have occupants on board. But of course, up until now,
all driverless vehicles have had to have someone sitting in
the driver's seat just in case. Not so in Texas.
(12:32):
That boosted cinnamon among investors. The company could soon make
good on its promise to turn electric vehicles into robo taxis,
so they bought the stock.
Speaker 1 (12:41):
One last one. This is really interesting. China's fossil fuel
power plants are on track to chart their first annual
drop in generation in a decade, as renewables flood the
grid to meet rising demand.
Speaker 2 (12:55):
So it is really interesting. Thermal electricity output fell by
more than four percent in the Vamber, according to data
published by the National Bureau of Statistics this week. Generation
from coal and gas fired plants is down zero point
seven percent this year, on track for the first annual
declinent since twenty fifteen. China's massive fleet of coal power
station is the world's leading source of greenhouse gases, fuel,
(13:18):
and global warning warming. Even though the nation is continuing
to build more of the plants, the use is plateauing
as huge investments in renewables meets growing consumption needs. According
to Bloomberg, windpower jumped twenty two percent November from a
year earlier. Large solar farms were up twenty three percent.
Quite incredible they are making the shift, although they still
(13:38):
remain the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
Okay, up next is fear and greed, Q and A
and Sean. We received a question in here because we
definitely accept to listen to questions and if you've got
something that you'd like to know, send it on through.
Peter did just that, and he asked a question that
we didn't know the answer to, So we went out
and found somebody who did. Thomas Hodgson, a director at
an Thesis, which is a sustainability consultancy, all.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
About how you measure all these emissions. And I must
say I had no idea, and I kept fumbling around
in the interview because I was pretty stupid, in't it.
But it's actually a lot simpler than I thought, and
it kind of all makes sense. How do you measure emissions?
And we asked that exact question and Thomas told us
the answer.
Speaker 1 (14:25):
Indeed, it's up next in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au.
Thank you, Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Thursday, the eighteenth
of December twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the
podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x
TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson. That was Fear and Greed.
Have a great day.