Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use Today.
Prime Minister Anthony Abanzi set to meet US President Donald Trump,
with China, critical minerals and ucas at the top of
the agenda. The federal government moves to crack down on
illegal tobacco sales, and Australia becomes the third richest nation
per capita thanks to the housing market, plus open AI
(00:27):
to allow adults to generate erotic content, and large crowds
across the US protest against Donald Trump. It is Monday,
the twentieth of October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson
and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean. The
main story this morning, Prime Minister Anthony Aberanzi will finally
get his sit down meeting with US President Donald Trump
(00:49):
tomorrow morning Australian time. And really China is likely to
be front and center.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Sure will China number one, a deal around Australia's critical
minerals number two, the three hundred and sixty eight billion
dollar ORCHEST submarine deal number three and lifting Australia's defense
spending number four? At least there might predictions, Michael.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
So this isn't official or any This is an alm estimate,
but I think it seems pretty accurate, right.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
I think so. Look, the two will meet at the
White House and China's encroachment in the Pacific region in
Australia's improving trade relationship with Beijing will be the critical focus.
The Alberanzi government has navigated the two superpowers pretty well,
I reckon, and while the Prime Minister's lack of engagement
with Trump has been criticized, the US military presence in
(01:37):
Australia under Anthony Alberanzi is at its highest level since
World War Two. Also, the federal government has boosted funding
for the Henderson Marine Precinct in Western Australia by twelve
billion dollars. Now, according to media reports, the Trump administration
is considering taking part ownership of Australian rare earths projects
as part of a critical mineral steal with labor to
(01:59):
challenge beijing stranglehold over the sector. The US is keen
to find alternate suppliers to China for commodities used in
defense and electronics. Also, Albanizi will be taking part in
a BHP event tomorrow night as part of the Big
Australian's one hundred and fortieth anniversary. That'll give him the
opportunity to further push Australia's critical minerals resources. Then there's Orcus.
(02:22):
Australia's supposed to start receiving a small fleet of nuclear
powered submarines from the US in twenty thirty two. But
the deal's under review. It's very much become emblematic of
the US Australia relationship at the moment. Parts of the agreement,
stuff like quantum computing, AI, cyber hypersonic and undersea technologies
(02:42):
seem to be going fine. Submarine part. Who knows. If
Anthony Albanese is lucky, he might hear more about it
this week, And certainly if that deal was confirmed, you
would imagine that that would be a very successful trip
to Washington by Anthony Albernesi. Anyway, I'm sure he's relieved
he's meeting Donald Trump, and I think it does highlight
(03:02):
the fact that the US is still Australia's number one
geopolitical ally.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
Yeah, absolutely, and you would expect that we would. There
was a lot of talk a couple of weeks ago.
Remember that the ORCUST review had essentially been completed and
had essentially been approved, right, but was just almost being
kept under wraps. So you would it wouldn't be surprising
if there was an announcement along those lines this week, right.
Speaker 2 (03:29):
No. I mean it's interesting because you can compare Anthony
Alberanzi this week. What will happen if Orcas is ticked off,
if there's a rare Earth deal they agree on China, Right,
that's going to be a fantastic trip to Washington for Alberansi.
Contrasts that to what's going on in the Coalition, which
will come to in a moment. Oh yeah, you know,
(03:50):
it's kind of chalk and cheese at the moment between
the two main political parties.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
Yeah. Yeah, the coalition is a complete basket case and
we'll get there soon Albanesi. And that's probably been light
about it, right. Albanezy is not the only local Polly
in the US. Jim Chalmers is in Washington to attend
the annual meetings of the World Bank and the International
Monetary Fund.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
He'll be joined by Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock. Charmers
said his focus will be showcasing Australia's strength as an
investment destination and promoting resilience in global markets. Now. He
then went on to talk about Australia stability. I reckon
he'll use that as a competitive advantage in the current
world all week. Michelle Bullock, Well, anything she says will
(04:33):
be particularly interesting, particularly given last week's surprise jump in
unemployment to four and a half percent. Michael, So I'm
looking forward to hearing what Charmers and Bullock have to say.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
You know what you should also look forward to is
hearing what Diana Messina has to say about all of it,
which is in today's Fear and Greed Q and A
coming up after the episode. It is the Week Ahead,
and Diana is the deputy Chief Economist at AMP insight
into everything that happened last week with that rather surprising
jump in unemployment and what that means long term for
(05:07):
the Reserve Bank and form interest rates. So stick around
for that one, Sean. There's been a bit happening in politics, really,
because yesterday we also had Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke
announcing the establishment of a National Disruption Group to combat
the surge of illicit tobacco and the associated organized criminal activity.
(05:28):
They could have come up with a better name than
the National Disruption Group. What about a strikeforce or crackdown
or something like that.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Well, the National Distruction Group is part of the near
two hundred million dollars provided to the Australian Border Force
to combat elicit tobacco. Burke acknowledged there had been an
uptick in illicit tobacco which has sawed over after years
of tax increases pushed the price of legal cigarettes beyond
the means of many smokers. They're looking for cheap alternatives.
We've heard Woolworths and Coles both talking about a big
(05:56):
drop in tobacco sales. The taxation rate on cigarettes increased
by about three hundred percent since twenty ten under both
Labor and Coalition governments. A packet of twenty five legal
cigarettes now costs about fifty dollars, of which thirty four
dollars goes to the government. Legal cigarettes, which are not
tax can be bought for as little as twelve dollars
a packet. According to a story in The fin Review,
(06:18):
there's some sort of irony that the government stepping in
to help the legal tobacco industry.
Speaker 1 (06:24):
I think, yes, yeah, you're right. After taxing them, taxing
the heck out of them for a very long time.
We're going to now help them. But I mean, just
like rename it Operation Siggy SmackDown. Maybe the Great Durry
dust Off. I don't know. Oh that's good, thank you
very good.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Anyway, they should consult us here at Fear and Greed
Mark I should Where do they finish up over the weekend?
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Sewan starting local less and PASX two hundred fell nearly
one percent on Friday to eighty nine hundred and ninety
five points. For the week, it was up about half
a percent or there we go. Futures training suggests the
market will start today very big week on wall streets.
September quarter profit season is underway. Intel and Tesla are
particularly interesting. But it's an even bigger week in China.
(07:09):
The country's top leaders meet in Beijing to map out
the country's economic strategy for the next five years, a
gathering which takes on added importance as trade tensions with
the US escalate. You always see those pictures, mostly men,
you know, kind of wearing similar suits, hanging out talking economy.
Speaker 1 (07:31):
Talking economy. I don't think anyone's ever described the Fourth
Plan and as just hanging out talking economy. Just shooting
the breeze.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Well than three hundred senior Communist Party officials are likely
to endorse the plan that probably double down on Shijing
Ping's push for dominance in things like high tech manufacturing, renewables,
advanced industries. So plenty to watch there as well.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
Yeah, plenty happening in China, plent happening in the US.
It's big starts of the week. Take a quick break.
We're back in a moment with the rest of the
day's business news. Sean National's leader David Little Proud says
Barnaby Joyce has not yet left the party, notwithstanding media
(08:15):
reports saying the former leader is considering joining Pauline Hanson's
at One Nation.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Over the weekend, mister Joyce said his relationship with his
party leadership had broken down. Yesterday, David Little Proud, who
of course is the party leadership, said he would of
course seek to change mister Joyce's mind about leaving the
Nationals Party. He's still a member of the National Party.
He's made it clear and that he won't He's made
it clear that he won't be contesting the next election
for the seat of New England. He's left a big
(08:43):
legacy there and he's left all those options open. We
want him to stay in the National Party. I think
he has a contribution to make between now and when
he retires. Maybe. I mean, I'm sure Barnaby Joyce always
has a contribution to make. But isn't this destabilizing for
the National Party former leader wants to leave. Susan Lee
has all sorts of problems, with high profile backbenches now
(09:06):
attacking her leadership. The coalition, as you said earlier on,
is shambles at the moment.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Yeah, it is. And one of the main drivers of
this is the support for net zero and Barnaby Joyce
thinks that the lack of shouldn't be doing it and
it is just one of these things that is driving
a major division between the Liberal Party in the National
Party and Susan Lee has got a heck of a
job trying to figure out what the party stands for
and where they go from here. Good luck Sean. Australians
(09:34):
enjoyed the biggest jump in wealth of any nation last year,
according to Alliance's Global Wealth twenty twenty five report, and
perhaps no surprise, house prices are the big driver of that.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Average net wealth, combining real estate and financial assets hit
almost three hundred and eighty four thousand euros that's six
hundred and eighty six thousand Ossie dollars that's per person.
In twenty twenty four, made Australia the world's third wealthiest population,
behind Switzerland and the US. Property, as you mentioned, the
big driver, but the growing pool of superinnuation is also
(10:08):
playing a major role. Australia climbed seven places in the rankings.
Sweden and Japan both fell. Switzerland, as I mentioned, took
the top spot overall average wealth of four hundred and
thirty five thousand US four hundred and five thousand, these
are all euros, and then Australia three eighty four thousand.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
They're not going too bad and staying in the wealth
theme shown. The preliminary auction clearance rate reached a four
week high last week of just under seventy four percent.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
That's pretty good, very solid result giving them are nearly
twenty seven hundred homes up for sale across the five
major capital cities. That's the highest number since May. More
than thirty two hundred homes are scheduled to go under
the hammer this coming week, taking the capital cities individually,
Melbourne seventy four point four percent, the highest in four
weeks for that city. Sydney touched above that seventy four
(10:56):
point five percent, Brisbane almost seventy one percent, ACT sixty
and Adelaide seventy seven percent now seawn.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
This next story is quite a tale really. The CEO
of Ainsworth Game Technology, which is an ASX listed company
manufacturers online and offline gaming machines, has stepped down after
a gaming regulator told him to withdraw his request for
a gaming license. This is quite intense, so the CEO's
(11:23):
name is Harold Newman.
Speaker 2 (11:25):
In a ninety minute interview with the Nevada Gaming Control Board,
the Austrian born executive of the Australian listed company was
accused of misleading regulatory agents, suppressing phone records, lacking contrition,
and lying on a US visa application by calling himself
a journalist. Manufacturers of poker machines in the US city
(11:45):
require approval from the Nevada Gaming Board. It's one of
the more influential regulators in the US gaming system. The
board assesses privaty, but also considers the person's character when
they're working out whether or not they should have a license.
That process turns sour late last year, and Human refused
to hand over his phone for five months. He said
his refusal was due to privacy concerns. Now Ainsworth Game
(12:06):
Technology has been under intense scrutiny after the finn report
earlier this year that Newman had been under investigation in
Austria since twenty nineteen over allegations from later to his
time leading a gaming firm in that country. He got
the job at Ainsworth Now the Nevada board has said,
uh uh, we don't want you here, so he's had
to quit there too.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Sean, what do you make of this?
Speaker 2 (12:29):
One?
Speaker 1 (12:29):
Mentioned it at the top of the show. Open Ai
says it will soon allow adults to generate erotic content
on chat GPT. It's trying to fend off competition from
Elon Musk's more explicit chatbot Michael.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Not often do you contribute stories, but listeners need to
know who put forward this story? Was it you or I?
Speaker 1 (12:52):
Well? I thought this is something that we needed to
know to start our working week, Shawn.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Open Ai bos Sam Altman says the change, due in
December is part of a new Treat Adults Like Adults
policy with erotica available only to verified adult users. Strict
bands on deep fakes will remain in place to protect individuals.
It comes after masks Grock chatbot made headlines for offering
sexual conversations through an anime style girlfriend bot also a
(13:21):
tap controversial when it emerged users as young as twelve
years old could access the system before allowing access to
pornographic content. OpenAI also plans to launch a more human
like version of chat gpt with added personality and more
conversational flare. Now, maybe that latter part is what most
of us are going to be affected by, But I
(13:42):
like the fact that we're leading with the erotic part.
Speaker 1 (13:45):
It's the headline grabber, isn't it always always? I think
we just leave that one entirely alone, Sean, and move
on very quickly, turning to international news now. Large crowds
of protesters gathered in cities across the US over the
weekend to participate in Mats No Kings demonstrations against President
Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
New York's Times Squares was one of the biggest rallies.
Thousands of people clogged Seventh Avenue, away signs and chant.
The mood was calm, with police presidence was pretty much
typical for one of the most crowded places in the city.
Organizers were expecting millions to attend demonstrations in cities and
towns across the US. There are also similar protests in
places like London, Barcelona, Madrid, and Nice. Saturday's No Kings
(14:27):
marches are the second wave of such protests this year.
In June, millions took to the streets as the US
President staged a controversial military parade in Washington.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
And finally Sewan. BYD is recalling more than one hundred
and fifteen thousand cars in China over safety defects. It
is a major setback for the world's largest ev maker
as it really tries to shed its image as a
budget brand and compete globally.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
The two recalls, affecting both hybrid and fully electric models,
follow regulator investigations in the falls with drive components and
battery system they could cause power loss. The move comes
mid growing safety concerns after fatal crashes involving one of
BYD's main rivals occurred in China, with the government drafting
new rules on door handle design after bystanders unable to
(15:13):
get into cars to help after accidents. BYD, sales momentum
has already slowed, with its first monthly decline in eighteen
months and a sharp cut to its twenty twenty five
sales target. There's no word yet on whether the recall
effects markets outside China, such as Australia, where BYD has
surged up the list of new vehicle sales over the
past year or so.
Speaker 1 (15:32):
Alrighty, Sean up next, As I mentioned before, Fear and
Greed Q and A with Diana Messina, Deputy Chief Economist
at AMP, all about the week ahead for the economy,
as well as we look back at last week as well.
It's coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au,
which is where you sign up for the Mighty Fear
and Greed daily newsletter, out every morning by six am.
(15:55):
Just pop your email addressing. It is entirely free and
away you go. I'll put a link in today's show notes.
Thank you, Sean, Thank you Michael. It is Monday, the
twentieth of October twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following
the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was fear.
I'm greed. Have a great day.