Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
China puts a temporary ban on BHP's iron ore exports,
triggering fears of shortfalls for the big Australian's earnings and
the federal budget. Australia's biggest car dealership pushes into Canada
and analysts tip rising house prices in coming months. Plus
the battle over seven Western Southern Cross media starts getting dirty,
(00:29):
and President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegsath lecture
the US Lecture The US is top military brass on
grooming and physical fitness. It is Thursday, the second of
October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,
Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Good morning, Michael. That last story you mentioned it is
it is pretty remarkable. We'll get to it.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Yeah, we will get to that one a bit later.
On the main story this morning, Sean. China has put
a temporary ban on BHP's iron ore shipments into the
country after talks over the renewal of contracts broke down
and what's considered really an active brinksmanship by Beijing.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
The embargo was imposed after discussions between the mining giant
and China Mineral Resources Group stalled, according to a Bloomberg report,
obviously bad news given that China buy more than one
hundred about one hundred and eight billion dollars worth of
iron ore from Australia every year. Prime Minister Anthony albany
is Easy yesterday got involved that he's worried about the
(01:29):
news and called for a quick resolution between BHP and China,
urging an end to hardball negotiations. Federal treasure Jim Chalmers
was expected to call BHP boss Mike Henry over the issue.
The dispute is seen as an attempt by CMRG, the
Chinese buyer, to gain leverage over BHP, and is thought
to revolve around the discount applied to medium grade or
(01:53):
sold by the Big Australian. It's unclear whether it's only
for spots sales of iron ore or currently contracted sales.
HP wasn't commenting yesterday. The refusal of shipments could result
in cargoes worth millions of dollars remaining unloaded, incurring hefty
shipping related expenses, and leaving BHP's mining operations in Western
Australia's Pilburgh region in Limbo. Bhpre's share price yesterday fell
(02:16):
two point five percent as a result.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
Sean iron Ore is now really it's fundamental to Australia's economy.
It's our biggest export earner, not just for BHP but
for the federal government. Given the minor pays plenty of
money in taxes. China's our biggest buyer. Is this kind
of thing typical or should we be more worried about this? Look?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
I think we should be a little bit more worried.
As I mentioned, Australia probably exported about one hundred and
eight billion dollars with mine or last year. What's happening
in China is part of the it's negotiating tactics, but
China is getting better at negotiating this group. The CMRG
was established three years ago to improve China's a bill
(03:00):
to deal with minus such as BHP and Brazil's Varalet,
which is actually the world's biggest producer iran Or. It
acts as both a trader and strategic reserve, so it
has stockpiles at more than a dozen ports across China.
It releases that stockpile when mills are struggling buyers aggressively
when prices dip. Since its creation, CMRG has grown into
(03:21):
the single most powerful buyer in the global market. It's
backed by the Chinese Communist government, represents more than half
of China's vast steel industry. Therefore, it is in a
much stronger negotiating position when it's dealing with BHP, Rio,
et cetera than ever before. So that's why we should
be a little bit more worried about it this time now. Rio. Yes,
(03:42):
they refuse to say whether it had also been dragged
into the dispute, while Pilbra minus Fortescue Metals and Handcock
iron Ore also declined to comment. Mineral Resources, a smaller
Pilber producers, that it wouldn't be affected by the dispute.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
It seems a very good time to mention today's interview, Sean,
that you've got coming up after the show Fear and
Greed Q and A. Today it features Junebailu, who is
the co founder and lead portfolio manager at investment firm
ten Cap, and you begin by asking her about BHP.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, exactly right, we asked when I asked Jinbei about
BHP's prospects, also about other Chinese exposed companies like A
two Milk. Then we go into some of the local stocks,
from the high flyers, the Harvey Normans of the world
and the Life three sixties of the world through to
the not so high flyers like Domino's Pizza. We also
(04:33):
have a quick chat about Sigma Healthcare plenty in it.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Yeah, great one for investors. It is coming up after
the show, so stick around for that one shown. The
local market yesterday was dominated by China and all the miners,
not just BHP. Lithium stocks were sold off in early
trading following reports that Chinese authorities have approved increased production
from two major lithium producers in that country. As a result,
(04:57):
we had Liontown, Pilbrim Minerals, Mineral Resources, and Igo. They
all fell.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
That's right. The flip side was the gold stocks. Gold
hit another record, extending a four day rally as traders
braced for a possible US government shut down that supports
demand for safe haven assets. Bullion touched three thousand, eight
hundred and seventy five dollars and fifty three cents US dollars.
Of course, announce that meant local stocks like Neumont, Northern Star,
(05:22):
Evolution Mining, Genesis Mining, they kind of outperformed West Gold
Resources announced plans to increase annual gold production from three
twenty six thousand ounces to more than four and seventy
thousand ounces. That's quite a jump when you've got a
goal price heading towards four thousand US dollars a ton.
Its share price jumped eleven percent by the close, though
the SPA six two hundred was pretty flat. Corporate news
(05:44):
a couple of interesting ones. Drone Shield jumped another twenty
three percent. It's reason about fifty percent this week. That's
a company that makes defense mechanisms. That the right word done,
defense stuff for drones, and everyone likes that at the moment,
given what's going on in the world. Brava's Solutions surged
nearly twenty percent after upgrading its earnings. Guidance and Nostile
(06:05):
Chairs jumped after it reached an agreement with the US
Navy its toeing selvage and rescue ship program.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
How to you describe it as defense stuff?
Speaker 2 (06:14):
I did? I did, like say, drone defense.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Yeah, I suppose it is. I mean, every day we
have this same discussion, there's this same kind of question
over how to act accurately describe what drone Shield does.
The clue is like, it's all in the name, right,
it is a shield.
Speaker 2 (06:34):
But you can't say drone shield which produces shield against dranes.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
No, because then we'll look like then we'll look like
a pair of geese sewn, and we wouldn't want that.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Geese probably are a good defense against drones.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Send up, Send up the flock. Anyway, let's take a
quick break back in a moment with the rest of
the day's business news sew in. Australia's biggest car dealership,
Eagers Automotive, will buy sixty five percent of North American
(07:07):
Network Canada One for one point one billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
Eggers is putting in one billion dollars in major shareholders.
Nick Politis is tipping in another one hundred and twenty
eight million dollars. Remaining thirty five percent of the business
will be held by the current owner and founder, a
guy called Pat Priestner, analyst said Canada's car market is
fifty percent bigger than Australia, much higher margins. That's why
Nick Politis and Egers is interested in getting into it.
(07:33):
Plytus owns thirty percent of eagas already, he's a director.
He's also chairman of Sydney Rooster's drugbia Legu Club. He
first bought a steak in Eagers in two thousand after
the death of majority shareholder Alan Piper, and has made
a lot of money from that company, particularly in recent months.
Eagers will pay six hundred and fifty eight million dollars
in cash for the steak, largely funded by equity raising.
(07:55):
The deal gives Capital Canada one an enterprise value of
two point seven billion dollars.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
Property price is sewn in suburbs that are popular with
first home buyers will jump more than predicted by Treasury
modeling after the rollout of the government's new five percent
deposit scheme. This is according to economists and mortgage brokers.
Speaker 2 (08:14):
Labour's election commitment took effect on Wednesday, expanding the first
Home guarantee so first buyers can avoid paying Linda's mortgage
insurance with deposits as low as five percent. The changes
also abolished income limits, which is a big part of it.
Treasury estimates it will make seventy thousand people eligible in
the first year from the start date, up from fifty
(08:36):
thousand people according to the AFR Now the mas SEAD
quotes a number of agents saying demand in the first
couple of days was unprecedented, so it has totally opened
up the market to first home buyers. That's good news
if you're a first home buyer, not so good if
you're not a first home buyer trying to get into
the market.
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Jehan, I reckon most people listening to this show and
listening over the last couple of weeks wouldn't be able
to tell that you are working remotely, that you are broadcasting,
that you were recording this podcast from the other side
of the world in the south of France, until we
suddenly get to a story that shows just how much
your body clock is completely out of whack, as it
(09:18):
was just then when you referred to the first home
by a scheme coming into effect on Wednesday yesterday, and
you have no idea what time it is, what day
it is, or anything. You are working very strange hours right.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Now, very odd hours, I must say.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Anyway, that was a very long winded way of pointing
out that Wednesday was in fact yesterday, Sean. And that
information comes in a week in which data shows home
price growth in Australia it's accelerating, and after Reserve Bank
Governor Michelle Bullock said three rate cuts this year have
already flowed through to the housing market.
Speaker 2 (09:53):
Is Michael, you ran in the strong auction results for
both cities and regions. Bottom line, I reckon In all,
this housing market looks pretty warm at the moment.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Indeed toasty now. The seven West Southern Cross Media deal,
which was announced on Tuesday, which was the day before yesterday, sean,
it's already getting ugly. It didn't take long, did it.
With a big shareholder in Southern Cross trying to scupper
the deal.
Speaker 2 (10:16):
Sand And Capital, which owns more than eleven percent of
Southern Cross, sent the Border a quest to amend the
company's constitution on Tuesday night. As it stands, Southern Cross
shareholders don't get a vote on the merger. And Sander's
managing director, Gabriel Redsminski, who'd described the deal as diversification,
(10:36):
great word dwrsification diversification. Once it changed, Southern Cross Media's board,
said it's confident can stop any attempt to change its constitution.
The push to change the constitution cold is successful. Stuff
up the merger, that's if it does require shareholder approval.
Stay tuned for that one. The other media announcement yesterday, Michael,
(10:59):
would you'd be much more across? Is the regulators ruling
on what's going on with the kiss Kyl and Jackieasha?
Speaker 1 (11:08):
Ah, Yes, yeah, the regulator ACMA did not take too kindly.
I think it was something like this is now that
the twelfth breach finding against the program. There were seven
new breaches within this about vulgar and sexually explicit content
and failure to handle audience complaints within the required time
(11:29):
as probably not going to help Kyl and Jackieo's push
to gain market share in Melbourne where it just hasn't
been able to really gain much ground at all over
the last eighteen months. But if we turn away now
from local media to an international story show returning to
international news now. The US government has officially shut down
(11:49):
after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach an agreement over
funding bills.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
From midnight Tuesday US time or two pm yesterday Australian
Eastern Standard time. Hah, I'm getting my time worked out, Michael.
There you go. Hundreds of thousands of public service workers
will be put on forced holiday. It directly effects about
seven hundred and fifty thousand federal workers daily cost of
four hundred million UIST dollars. Essential workers will have to
(12:17):
work without pay. It's not a totally uncommon occurrence, and
last time Donald Trump was in power, there was a
thirty four day shutdown. On average, they last about eight days.
There have been fifteen shutdowns since nineteen eighty one. But
it basically means people just aren't getting paid.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
And so a shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass
annual bills at fund government operations. Curiously, if that happened
in Australia, it would be grounds for a double dissolution
election because essentially, a denying supply to the government, you
can't actually pay your bills and you can't kind of
pay everything that needs to be paid. But in the
US this case, it means that data releases like this
(12:55):
week's September employment report that won't be released, air travel
all that checks and things that are required to get
people onto planes that'll be hit, scientific research suspended, and
pay withheld from US public servants.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Exactly this time, the two sides seem to be a
long way away from each other. The Democrats want to
leverage the opportunity to find exert some influence over the
Trump administration. The president has He's just come out and
streatened to use to stand off to fire more federal workers.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
So that's the spirit. Now. Speaking of the President, Donald
Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegsath have given speeches to
the country's top military brass on issues ranging from grooming
and fat troops to how much the current president dislikes
Joe Biden.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
I'm laughing already the photos of these generals and important
people in the military. They were very stony faced. The
military leaders were called home for the meeting. Most sat
there listened to tirades from their bosses. Remember Trump and
Hexath are their bosses. Just looked like they had better
things to do now, given their day jobs are like
(14:05):
complex military operations such as the maintenance of nuclear subs,
management of America's global alliances, and development of orders such
as those used to do strikes on Iran's nuclear program
this year. I just reckon they felt that their time
wasn't being well used. Trump started the meeting. He bashed
his predecessor Joe Biden for the US's military coat withdrawal
(14:28):
and defeated in Afghanistan. I think it was the most
embarrassing day in the history of our country, and now
we're back, We're not going to have any of that
crap happened. I can tell you that was terrible, so terrible.
That's where we started.
Speaker 1 (14:41):
And then Hexath was even more incredible, talking about beards
and physical fitness and pretty much having a crack at
the military for not being much good. I just don't
know if you picked his audience.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
Sean No on grooming standards. Let me quote him now,
more beards, long hair, superficial individual. We're going to cut
our hair, shave, shave our beards, and adhere to standards.
End quote. On physical fitness start quote. Frankly, it's tiring
to look out at combat formations or really any formation
(15:13):
and see fat troops. Likewise, it's completely unacceptable to see
fat generals and admirals in the halls of the Pentagon.
He hex said standards have been lowered across the force
over the past decade to meet arbitrary racial and gender quotas.
Remember he's talking to people who've been running the military
(15:34):
over that period. He said, fixing the problems was the
first step towards repairing a military that, since World War Two,
had lost the ability to win wars. Oh my word,
talk about going down like a lead balloon.
Speaker 1 (15:47):
Oh god, that would have been an uncomfortable room to
be in anyway, Sean up next to Spear and Greed
Q and A I mentioned before June Beilou from ten cap.
It is a great interview to listen if you are
an investor or just interested in what's going on in
the Lafe local market. It is coming up in the
Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at
Fearangreed dot com dodau, which is where you sign up
for the free daily newsletter. I'll put a link in
(16:08):
today's show notes as well. Thank you very much, Sean.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
Thanks Michael.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
It's Thursday, the second of October twenty twenty five. Make
sure you're following the podcast and please join us online
on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson
and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.