Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
Business investment ramps up as the economy picks up steam,
The banking Regulator introduces new rules to damp and home lending,
and Barnaby Joyce quits the Nationals. Plus reports that almost
half the Big Bash League, a domestic cricket series, will.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Be up for sale.
Speaker 1 (00:25):
And confirmation that dogs including two hours come from wolves.
It is Friday, the twenty eighth of November twenty twenty five.
I'm Michael Thompson. Good morning, Sean Ailmer.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Good morning, Michael. I'm loving our final stories each day
this week. Just a little bit quirky, should.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
We say, yeah, limited business relevance, but guaranteed it's the
thing that we'll be talking about when you actually get
to work, right.
Speaker 2 (00:49):
It's the edge to.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Hear about the wolves.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Yeah, the wolves.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
Anyway, we'll get to that a bit later on. We
actually have real business news to talk about before then.
The main story this morning, Seawan. Business investment, a key
component of economic growth, had its biggest jump in four
years during the September quarter, as evidence grows that the
local economy is starting to pick up a head of steam.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
That's right, a boom in new data centers pushed new
capital expenditure six point four percent higher way head of expectation.
Six point four percent is a big, big number in
that world. Data centers fit into the infomedia and telecom category,
and in terms of business investment that's the category way
in front of any other over the past five years
or so. Significantly, business are looking to invest even more
(01:33):
in coming months. Yesterday's data feeds into next week September
GDP figures really should give them quite the boost now.
Business investment in many ways has been a missing piece
of the economic puzzle in recent years. Yesterday's ABS figures
all got well for growth. In fact, business investment used
to be about twenty percent of GDP. It's down to
(01:54):
about eleven percent now, so we really need to pick
up in it. The data comes as a bunch of
economic indicators and anecdotal evidans suggests the economy is just
starting to come back to life. Yesterday, the banking regulator
warned of overheating in the housing market. More of that
shortly earlier this week, the October INFAC figures were well
above expectations, triggering a winding back of any interest rate
(02:15):
cut expectations. Remember last week the unemployment level fell from
four point five to four point three percent and inequity.
Several retailers, knownably Harvey Norman have outlined strong first quarter sales. Now,
not all retailers have done that. This week's Black Friday
Cyber Monday sales are critical, but there's enough evidence in
(02:35):
the retail sector to suggest that households are spending again.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
Sean part of this that doesn't really make sense to me.
The economy might be picking up, but it does feel
like a lot of people wouldn't be an aren't feeling it.
The cost of living crisis hasn't gone away. Based on
what you said, Is it more about an improvement just
in very specific thic sectors like technology with all the
(03:02):
data centers, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
I mean, I think that's a fair comment. If you
look at the CAPEX numbers yesterday, investing in construction trending lower,
for example, so too in rental hiring and real estate services,
mining and retail trade are flatlining. I suppose the risk
is that tech and sectors associated with tech really outperformed,
(03:25):
while will outperform, while others around housing construction underperform, and
that is a real risk sitting over all this, of
course is inflation. It remains a problem. We've had three
rate cuts, but given prices and our rising faster than
the Reserve Bank once, maybe we're headed for a rate hike.
I mean, even talk of a rate hike can pretty
quickly dampen any rebound. But to your question, I definitely, Mike.
(03:48):
We might be able to talk about a two or
three speed economy at some point in the future. That'd
be very exciting. But right now we are definitely seeing
some real green shoots, some real strength in parts the market,
like technology data centers, but not in others.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
Okay, all right, not you did mention before almost In
passing new rules for the housing market, the Financial Services
Regulator has introduced new restrictions that limit how much banks
can lend and how much some borrowers can receive, because
it's growing wary of rising risks in the property market.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
Yes, so this is for home occupies and investors. The
Strain Credential Regulation Authority will limit loans made by banks
for mortgages to six times the borrower's income from early
next year, no more than twenty percent of a bank's
new mortgage lending will be available to customers borrowing six
(04:45):
times or more their income.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
How does that work? Maybe perhaps if it pains an example, yes,
an audio example. Sure, normally you'd use a whiteboard for this,
but you're going to have to adjust with words.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
So Sidney is probably a good example. I mean it's
it's sort of at one end of the market, so
I take that. But the median house price in Sydney
is nearly is what's one point nine two million, it's
nearly two million, so let's say two million. Let's say
you say the twenty percent deposit pretty normal, four hundred
thousand dollars. I don't know how you do that, but
you manage to do that. There's also money for stamp duty,
(05:19):
all the extras. Let's say you don't need to you know,
you say for that as well, will be generous. So
you need to borrow one point six million. So that's
the four hundred thousand and two million minus is four
hundred thousand, one point six million. That means to get
a loan, you're going to have to earn one sixth
of that, which is two hundred and sixty seven thousand
(05:41):
dollars a year. Not many people earn two hundred and
sixty seven thousand dollars a year.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Oh wow, And suddenly you can see this becomes a
real challenge for a lot of those critical services industries
that think you're kind of your teachers, police, fieries, et cetera.
And they then get priced out of markets as well.
This this, this is quite quite significant.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Yeah, I mean appa chare. John Lonsdale spoke about investors.
So what you find investors take on a lot of leverage,
so their incomes. If you've got one or two or
three investment homes, you don't have the income necessarily to
meet these guidelines. And I think they're trying to take
this team particularly out of that. He said. The regulator
is not prepared to wait for a buildup of trouble
(06:25):
in the sector, so decided to introduce the debt to
income rule. There'll be a lot of people who are
not happy about this at all.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Okay, but APRA's trying to get in ahead of the game.
They're trying, that's to stop it, which makes a lot
of sense, right.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
It does. I don't know, I find this a bit difficult.
The banks aren't a rock and a hard place here
because they've got to five the rules from APRA. But
then they've got customers rightly saying, hey, you know, can't
we lend us money? And the banks say, well, no,
we can't because under this rule and other prudential regulations,
we can only learn so much. So suddenly you're getting
a bunch of people, construction people going to private credit.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Now that might be great, but you've got to get
the right provider of private credit. And if you get
the right provider, fantastic. If you don't, you know, it's
not quite as well regulated. So there's flow and effects
from all these things.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
Okay, all right, plenty in that one. As you say,
there probably be plenty of reaction to it. Barnaby Joyce,
this is something else that stirred up a bit of reaction. Reaction.
Sean Barnaby Joyce has formally resigned from the Nationals, ending
his twenty year parliamentary career with the party and clearing
the way for him to join right wing minor party
(07:35):
One Nation. Thoughie he's not saying that yet.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
No he I mean he announced the decision in a
statement to the House of Reps yesterday. Twice Leader of
the NATS twice Deputy prime Minister. He said he had
not had not had conversations with National leader David Little
Proud about staying in the party, which I just find
extraordinary on its own, said he doesn't think the Coalition
(08:01):
can win the next election and those focusing on winning
back Teal seats for pursuing the wrong strategy. He also
highlighted the shift towards the right in many major countries,
including the US. Of course, he didn't confirm will join
One Nation. He did say he was strongly considering accepting
a proposal to run as a one Nation Senate candidate
in New South Wales.
Speaker 1 (08:22):
They were lining up to have a crack add him yesterday,
weren't they, former colleague or yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:27):
D Ryan center all the Nats and fair I mean
fair enough, yeah, fair enough.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
Yeah, he was the leader. He's been part of that
party for a very long time and it's not a
good look for the party or for the coalition for
someone who has been pivotal to the success of that
party over some time to be leaving. But he did
say that yes, haven't made any decisions, might go into business,
might leave this place entirely. Come on, barnaby, we all
know you're going to one nation. You wouldn't have been
(08:52):
sharing a stake with Pauline Hanson the other night if
you weren't really really about to do it anyway, a
lot still to get through, including Sean the story We're
all waiting for the Chualas and wolves back in the
moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Sean.
Speaker 1 (09:13):
Prime Minister Anthony Albernzi has done a deal with the
Greens to pass Labour's overhaul of Australia's environmental laws on
the last day before Parliament breaks for the summer recess.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
The government gave a series of concessions to strength and
protection of native forests and bush land, to carve out
fossil fuel projects from fast track and national interest approval pathways.
Under the changes, regional forestry agreements in New South Wales
and Tasmania, and high risk agricultural land clearing will be
brought under the new Environment Protection and Biodiversity of Conservation Act.
(09:45):
That's from the middle of twenty twenty seven now. Yesterday's
move very much has angered a bunch of farmers, forestry groups.
Labours tried to sweeten the deal with a three hundred
million dollar forestry fund, which Albernizi said would deliver a
bigger and more sustainable logging industry. The Green's also secured
an additional fifty million dollars for the ABC to produce
(10:05):
Australian content got nothing to do with environment whatsoever, but
that was just drown in. There was also changes to
address business concerns. The government will make clearer a power
that would allow the Minister to kill off projects at
a deem to have unacceptable impacts impacts before they're fully assessed.
Label will also impose stricter conditions on the powers of
the new National Environmental Protection Agency, which kicks in next year.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
The gender pay gap SEAN is narrowing, but still remains
too wide, with women still earning on average about twenty
eight thousand dollars less than men now.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
That's less than one percent improvement on last year. According
to data released by the Workplace Gender Equality Agency, in
twenty twenty five, women earned on average seventy eight point
nine cents for every dollar a man earns. Finance Minister
Katie Gallagher said there is progress, though not as fast
as many women in the country would like.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Quick wrap of the market's what happened yesterday on the
ASX show.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
SMPASX two hundred closed up just to touch eighty six
hundred and seventeen points, steadier day than recent sessions. Broadly,
the tech stocks did best on the back of a
strong knight on Wall Street. Energy stocks did worst, and
not a lot going on with the banks. CSL and
Goodman outperformed. Rear Tinto Fortescue Metals lower. One that did
do well wise Teach Global share price up six percent. Fine,
(11:21):
it's some good news for that struggling software group.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Indeed, Now Cricket Australia is aiming to raise six hundred
million dollars from the partial privatization of the Big Bash
League franchises.
Speaker 2 (11:32):
The administrative body intends to sell forty nine percent of
what could eventually be ten franchises in the domestic twenty
twenty competition, according to a report in The Australian. Now,
those of you who don't know what the Big Bash
League is domestic cricket tournament. Each team faces twenty overs.
They seem to be belting it the whole time. For mine,
(11:53):
it's on TV every night over the summer. If you're
really lucky you watch the test match during the day,
then the Big Bash cricket at night, watch cricket for
ten hours a day in summer, which I like the game.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
But tell you what, it is a lot of cricket.
But it is extraordinary to see just the difference between say,
Test match cricket, and then you get into the Big
Bash where it is just chaos.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
It is and it's amazing that they've created this product
that the market likes so much. Crew Australia will need
to seal agreements with the state bodies to realize the
vision value is a ten ten competition at one point
two billion dollars. Now, who would spend six hundred million
sixty million per team on average? And he thought the
(12:35):
Indian the Indian Premier League. Yeah yeah, same yeah, same
guys that probably put money into India or the Indian
Premier League more likely to come and put it into
the Australian Big Bash League.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
See, I didn't realize you were asking me just then.
I thought you were asking one of your famous rhetorical
questions where you're taking yourself to be honest.
Speaker 2 (12:56):
I started asking you and halfway through I thought you
might not know the answer, so I tried to make
it htorical.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
After that, and instead we just drew attention to all
kinds of communication eras where you're waving at me and
I'm looking at you in the studio. Absolute chaos. It's
like a game of Big Bash now. International News Sean
the number of this is an interesting one. Out of
the US, the number of transactions of ten billion US
dollars or more have hit an all time record in
(13:22):
twenty twenty five, after Donald Trump's deregulatory push unleashed wall streets,
animal spirits and triggered a run of global deal making.
An absolute deal frenzy Sean, A.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
Deal frenzy with animal spirits and everything. This week neighbors
ten point three billion at US dollar acquisition of South
Korea's biggest crypto exchange, up Bit, took this year's megadeal
total to sixty three, topping the twenty to fifteen record
according to The Financial Times. It comes despite a sluggish
start to the year after Trump Trump's Liberation Day tariffs
(13:58):
that's created volatility, not much going on, but deal's really
roared back in the second half of this year's CEOs
pounced on once in generation transactions. Union Pacific's eighty five
billion dollar bid for Norfolk Southern another railway company. There's
a fight of fifty five billion dollars Saudi backed take
private of Electronic Arts, the gaming group Anglo Americans fifty
billion dollar merger with tech don't mention that one a BHP,
(14:20):
and Kimberly Clark's foot nine billion dollar takeout on takeover
of thailand old maker Kenvu. The second half of the
year has been busiest. Trump kind of pulled back from
a full blown trade war with China, withdrew some of
his more aggressive tariffs, also doubled down on M and
A friendly measures, antitrustrials, et cetera. So we're just seeing
(14:41):
this absolute blurge in m and A activity.
Speaker 1 (14:45):
To go from the most extreme kind of business story
to the complete other end of the spectrum. Here sean
a new collection of eight canine genomics papers. There's not
a sentence I thought I'd ever say on fear that's
been published this week. They have found that nearly two
thirds of modern dog breeds, including even two hours, contain
(15:10):
traces of wolf DNA.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
And in fact some of these are quite recent wolf DNA.
What's this all got to do with business, though, Michael,
Nothing great story there. So twenty years ago, A pra,
a pure bred boxer, became the first domestic dog to
have her genome sequenced. That basically ushered in a new
era of canine genetics. Scientific scientists have been now sequenced
(15:35):
the genomes of thousands of dogs. Researchers are bringing all
this data together. That's this point, the end of it.
At the moment are the very important nuggets of information
from the dog scientists.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
Michael dog nuggets do try and avoid stepping on those.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Usually, modern dogs are more highly inbred than previously must
have been in the late twentieth century. I reckon that's
the you know, the cavoodles. That's the hell. Certain inner
city is just designing there's only one breeded dog you
can have. The German shepherd is particularly interesting. Their population
(16:12):
tumbled during World War Two. Most US German shepherds today
can trace their ancestry back to one dog known as
Lance of fran Joe. Lance of Franjoe was, of course,
was famous for having a sloping back that hadn't been
common in the breed. But now that's everywhere. Yeah, totally.
(16:33):
While dogs come from wolves, the two species nowadays very
very rarely into breed and apart from chiuahwas so like
hunting dogs and sled dogs that they've got a lot
of wolf DNA, so to Labrador retrievers and cocker spaniels.
Little flow, my little flow at feast of a dog.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
This story, it's got something for everyone. Really will finish
with actual business. I need to mention Fear and Greed
Q and A Sean coming up next. You're speaking to
Jardine's Steve Ween, who is answering a listener question for us,
and the question came from Michael and it's about CSL.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
And it had nothing to do with you. Michael basically
said why is CSL in the doghouse? And Steve came
and gave four very I know, keeping it going for
very good reasons, and it was just a succinct way
about CUSL. Then I asked him with a hit buy
now that its value is so much lower. You'll have
to listen to find out his answer. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
Great, that is a fantastic tease, Sean. It is coming
up next in the Fear and Greed playlist on your
podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which
if you have your own question like Michael, who is
not me. It is another Michael. If you've got your
own question that you would like to put to an
expert and we can put it to them on your behalf,
then send it on through via the website and sign
(18:00):
up for our newsletter as well.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
Thanks Sean, Thanks Michael.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
It is Friday, the twenty eighth of November twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. O'm Michael
Thompson and that was fear and greed. Have a great day.