October 15, 2025 • 17 mins
Thursday 16 October 2025
The Australian economy’s speed limit – the rate it can grow without causing inflation – has fallen to two per cent, which doesn’t augur well for rate cuts.
- There is less than one month’s supply of jet fuel, petrol and diesel in storage across the country, raising the risk of shortages.
- The improbable renewable energy boom in the US under Donald Trump.
- Commonwealth bank boss Matt Comyn to stay in the job for at least another three years
- Reports one million AMEX card holders have had their data stolen
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The Australian economy's speed limit, the rate that can grow
without causing inflation, has fallen to two percent, which doesn't
uber well for rate cuts. There's less than one month's
supply of jet fuel, petrol and diesel in storage across
the country, raising the risk of shortages and the improbable
renewable energy boom in the US under Donald Trump. Plus
(00:29):
Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Common to stay in the job
for at least another three years, and reports that one
million AMEX cardholders have had their data stolen. It is Thursday,
the sixteenth of October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson
and good morning Sean Ailner. Good morning, Michael, Sean. Something
for everyone today. The main story this morning, the Australian
(00:50):
economy speed limit has fallen to about two percent per
year as a result of slowing productivity, which we've been
talking about a lot about productivity challenge, and wages can
only grow at three point two percent annually without pushing
up inflation.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
The estimates from Reserve Bank Chief economist Sarah Hunter came
in a speech yesterday in which she also said inflation
could be higher than first thought, which is a blow
to hopes of rate cuts. Hunter said productivity growth is
the determinant of sustainable real wages growth because it allows
wages to rise without causing inflation. Now, a speedment in
(01:25):
an economy is what it can grow at without triggering inflation.
Over the longer term, Australia's economy has averaged about two
and a half percent a little above that, So two
percent is actually a very low rate. The fact that
Hunter nominated the number, I think that's pretty impressive. It
(01:46):
also highlights just how damaging slave productivity is to our economy.
Hunters said productivity growth in Australia has slowed since the
mid two thousands, more so than in comparable economies like
the US, the United Kingdom and the European Union. She
blamed low business investment, the slow integration of new technology,
and the growth in the non market sector over the
past twenty years. The sectors with the lowest productivity growth
(02:09):
were mining, utilities and manufacturing. The sectors with the highest
were information media I think podcast Michael, agriculture, and professional services.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
We are very productive here at Fear and Greed.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
I can vouch for this so many shows in one day, Oh.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Goodness, unrelenting. Some would describe it sean, but so done informative.
That's the answer here, Sean. Is it Artificial intelligence? Is
AI the savior? Can it solve Australia's productivity challenges? A
lot of analysts have suggested that that's the case. Is
it actually going to fix the problem.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Theoretically it should work. It should allow us to do
more with less. That's what productivity is more.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
I don't like the way you said theoretically there and
seeing it to some extent, I mean mostly in the
US rather than Australia.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Said, there's this huge investment underway in all things AI.
I think data centers, optic fiber or fiber optic, I
don't know what when it became optic fiber, then fiber
optic energy, larger language models, software, So that's all helping
productivity levels. And as I said, particularly in the US
and in fact then that country, productivity growth is running
ahead of pre COVID levels. But as always, a butt
(03:26):
isn't there. In economics, Sarah Hunter had a big noteive
caution yesterday. She said it will take time for AI
to emerge and disrupt It isn't something that takes three
to six months. It'll take much longer. In fact, it
could take a number of years for it to flow through.
As a result, the Reserve Bank is forecasting productivity of
just zero point seven percent a year in the near term.
(03:49):
That's very low. What's all that mean. It means productivity
isn't going to stop inflation pressures. Or if we had
productivity growth, you'd expect the Reserve Bank to cut into
traits more because you can afford to cut interest rates more.
That ain't going to happen anytime soon. Basically, it's why
interest rates on mortgages that you're paying now, on business
(04:09):
lands that you're paying now, they're not going back to
where they were a couple of years ago. And whatever
you have now, I reckon that's close to the new norm.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
Okay. It's an interesting point about the length of time
that it's going to take AI to disrupt, because we've
seen kind of the early stages of it and it
has been a really bumpy process. For an instance, when
Commonwealth Bank was replacing some call center or essentially jobs
(04:39):
with chatbots AI chatbots, and there were all kinds of
problems and it actually ended up creating more work, not less,
and it was not a smooth rollout at all. That
actually does entirely support what Sarah Hunter's saying that this
is going to be a long term thing rather than
a quick fix.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Right. Yeah, and technology doesn't lose jobs, It just changes
where people working and say we need more technology based jobs,
you know, or maybe it's more service based jobs, or
you know, it actually shifts where jobs are rather than
cutting jobs.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Okay, now, Sean moving away from the Reserve Bank. This
is a little bit alarming this story. Australia has less
than one month's worth of jet fuel, petrol and diesel
in storage, and as the only country failing to meet
its international treaty obligations to have enough oil in case
of a global emergency.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
It means Australia may be unable to stock supermarket and
pharmacy shelves, for example, or operate freight between states in
the event of a severe global supply chain disruption. That
might seem unusual, but we had one in COVID, for example,
Australia had oil stores equivalent to just forty nine days
worth of net inputs as at July twenty twenty five.
According to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment
(05:59):
and War as reported in the fin Review. Now, based
on normal consumption rates, the Department estimated Australia had just
twenty days of jet fuel, twenty four days of diesel
in twenty eight days of petrol supplies in July. That
basically means I'll be driving my car for four weeks
u for three and a half weeks. The data only
includes stock on land and in domestic coastal waters.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Is this unusual though? This sounds Honestly, it sounds very alarming,
and I know I tend to be a little bit alarmist. Yes,
this is actually quite concerning.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
It's actually not that unusual. The figure in July was
close to the record low levels reached in twenty seventeen,
so obviously not good. Far beneath the ninety day requirement
under a global treaty signed with the International Energy Agency
about fifty years ago. But Australia has been non compliant
with that ninety day obligation for more than a decade
since twenty twelve, so it actually isn't that unusual. Of
(06:55):
the twenty seven members who are net oil importers like Australia,
the International Energy Agency data shows they had an average
of one hundred and forty one days of import coverage
as at the middle of this year in Australia. As
we said, though, he's around that forty nine day level.
New Zealand was ninety two days. That was the next
least best or next worst, I suppose. So yeah, look,
(07:18):
it's not unusual, but it's probably not a total crisis yet.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Okay, all right, turning to local markets, how did things
go yesterday? On the ASX.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Preferbial Sea of Green Michael there's some fix two hundred
closed up one percent to just under nine thousand points.
The in fact, of the top twenty stocks, only one
Insuring QB ended lower yesterday. Healthcare Materials and Financials R
the way CSL jump more than two and a half percent,
forty SQW, Medals, Westpac, nab Rio, Tinto, They're all up
(07:50):
around two percent.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Good day on the market, and Sean Gold has hit
yet another record. I think we say that pretty much
every day now. It seems to be when we talk
about the proverbial sea of green. Another one that I
love is using the term the precious metal when you
run out of wayte to describe gold.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
There's only three ways to describe gold, Michael gold, precious metal,
or bullion. Any listener's got otherways. Send them in because
I'm sick of using.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
We will be very grateful to receive them anyway. The
latest price spike is boosted by an escalation in US
China frictions and bets at the Federal Reserve in the
US will cut interest rates twice more this year.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Yeah, a little more on the trade will later on.
Thirty six hours ago or so, Jerome Powell, the US
Fed Reserve boss, suggested that there would be more rate
cuts coming on the back of a softer labor market
in the US that pushed bullion ie the precious metal
IE gold to a fresh peak of US and eighty
five dollars an ounce. Spots. Silver also hit another all
(08:52):
time high. I remember twenty four hours ago were saying
it hit its highest level since nineteen eighty keeps going
fifty three dollars and fifty four an ounce. It actulutely
tumbled later in the day amid signs a squeeze is
starting to ease. The question on gold, though, isn't worth
buying at this point now? JP Morgan, Chief executive Jamie
Diamond was asked that yesterday. Jamie Diamond's kind of the
(09:14):
guru of Wall Street bankers, I would say, and when
you're a Wall Street banker, right, you don't invest in
gold by nature. You want to make money, take risk
all that. He said, it's semirational to own gold. I
quote him, I'm not a gold buyer. It costs four
percent to own it.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
I e.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
That's what you're not earning on a bond. So if
you own it, you don't get a coup on payment.
So not a goal buyer. It costs four percent to
own it. It could easily go to five thousand US
dollars ten thousand US dollars in environments like this. Now
he's probably you know, hyperbole. There still the fact that
Jamie Diamond's saying that is relevant. Meanwhile, all prices are
at a near six month low, branch trading around sixty
(09:56):
two US dollars a barrel. We might not much have
much petrol left, but the good new it's not going
to cost us too much, and the Aussie dollars buying
just under sixty five US Saints Michael.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
Yeah, there's not much of it, but what is there.
It's pretty cheap. Sean will be back at a moment
with the rest of the day's business news Sean. Commonwealth
Bank boss Matt Common is set to stay in the
job until twenty twenty nine, which would make him one
of the longest serving bank CEOs now. If the lenders
(10:28):
share price keeps rising, it would also make him one
of the most successful as well.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
Very true. At Commonwealth Banks annual general meeting in Brisbane yesterday,
the bank's chair Paul O'Malley was re elected for his
final three year term. He said the appointment of the
next CEA will be a task for the banks next chairman.
That pushes out Common's contract until late twenty twenty eight
or early twenty twenty nine at the earliest. That will
take the tenure of Common, who turns fifty next month,
(10:53):
to at least a decade. Very young to have this job.
I got to say the average tenure among ASEX fifty
CEOs is about six years now. Chane Elliott left this
year after nine and a half years at A and Z.
So you know Matt Common tent. I mean, he's done
a great job. The share price has done very well
keeping that up given how highly valued it is will
be a tricky one though for the next three years.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Oh yeah, And speaking of banks, up next after the
show Sean is Fear and Greed, Q and A. Where
your guest today is Matt Wilson from Jarden and it's
all about banks.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
It is a great chat. I say, tell me about
Commonwealth Bank, National Australian Bank A and ZED Westpac. Then
we talk about Bank of Queensland and Benny going to Adelaide.
I say, which one do you like best? Which is
best one for investors? What's it all meant for consumers?
It is a really really if you want to invest
in banks, and given the what they're twenty five thirty
percent of the market, you don't have much choice. You
must listen to this interview from Matt.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
It's great, yeah, good research. It is coming up after
the show, so stick around for that one. In the meantime.
Sean more than one million American Express card holders in
Australia maybe at risk of privacy breaches, fraud and identity
theft due to systemic fail failures in the company's security controls.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Nine media newspapers are reporting the risk after obtaining a
confidential report by Australia's privacy watchdog, the Office of the
Australian Information Commissioner. The Privacy Watchdog began investigating MS after
an employee accessed his ex partner's financial transactions. American Express
disputes the findings of the report, which claimed that the
financial giant breached privacy laws, acted unreasonably, gave misleading information
(12:26):
during regular to investigations, and has gaping holes in its
technology security that require immediate fixing. As I repeat, MS
refutes these particularly findings. THEAIC reportedly found that American Express
was not tracking the access of employees to customer accounts
in seventy eight percent of its systems.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
Sean there was a stack of corporate news around yesterday.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
The collective noun for corporate news is stack. Is that right?
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Well, I I was tossing up the stack or a
X tonight boat load to take your pick. Really. The
Bank of Queensland rallied after the Land of raised it
Stevidenda reported an improved annual profit helped by commercial landing,
which offset a shrinking mortgage book.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Telix Pharmaceuticals jumped seventeen percent best on the ASEX two
hundred after it upgraded its profit guidance. The chair of
cans and bottles maker Aurora says its business in France,
which it spent two point two billion on a couple
of years ago, has not met expectations. The hriable Ce
launched a probe into the Southern Cross Medias into Southern
Cross Medias proposed takeover of Seven West Media, flaking concerns
(13:37):
it may reduce competition for advertisers and audiences. Drone Share,
one of our favorites, launched a new software platform called
Drone Centry C two. Apparently it has a European buyer,
but its share price fell ten percent yesterday. Worst of
the ASEX two hundred and chairs and gold producer, Evolution
Mining dropped even as the company said it was on
track to deliver production and cost guidance targets.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
That was the interesting said about Aurora, the cans and
bottled maker talking about the Savor glass business. Not kind
of meeting expectations. It's very good in the glass business
to be transparent.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Moving on, I was waiting for it. I could see
your face and I knew it was coming. You'd been
thinking about it, couldn't.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
It was inevitable. I had to wait so long while
he went through all those other stories before I could
get back to it. Anyway. Turning to international news, now
sean hostilities between the US and China are growing, with
US President Donald Trump saying he might stop trade in
cooking oil with China.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
He came after Beijing said it would not buy American
soy beans. Trump called that decision an economically hostile act
that pushed Wall Street lower. Just hours before the spat,
both Trump and US Trade represented Representative Jemison Greer expressed
confidence that friction would ease through ongoing trade talks. Now,
(14:56):
so called used cooking oil UCO has become a flat
point in the US this last year or so. Imports
used to make renewable diesel fuel has raised concerns in
American soy farmers. We're missing out on demand. So they've
been inputing the used cooking oil, using it rather than soybeans.
Donald Trump's not happy about that. Trump's comments came as
(15:17):
farmers have been suffering from low crop prices while China
has been avoiding US soybeans. Soybeans is a massive crop
in the US, so you know, a big political play there.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Speaking of the US president, here's overseeing a renewable energy
boom despite doing everything he can to roll back clean
energy tax credits and throw out roadblocks to renewable energy projects.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
I reckon this will annoy him. I mean, in the
long run, what he's doing will mean fewer wind and
solar farms will be built than otherwise would have. But
right now it's triggering a boom in the sector. That's
because companies are racing to install solar panels, wind turbines,
and batteries the size of shipping containers before federal tax
tax credits expire or become harder to claim. The pipeline
is so big that analysts why we expect the US
(16:00):
to add a near record and potentially a record amount
of renewable energy and batteries next year, according to a
report in The New York Times. Now Bloomberg and EF
the research firm, recently raised its forecast for how much wind, solar,
and batteries the country will add next year by more
than ten percent. Many of the projects under construct well,
the projects need to be under construction by July to
(16:21):
be eligible for federal tax credits. To hit that deadline,
many developers they've ordered custom power transformers, which a device
is used to increase and to increase voltage more solar
panels other equipment much sooner than they normally would have.
So ironic as it sounds, donald Trump is overseeing a
renewable energy boom.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
There we go. Up next Sean is Fear and Greed
Q and A. As we mentioned before, Matt Wilson from
Jarden all about investing in banks is coming up in
the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or
at Fearangreed dot com todau, which is where you sign
up for the just unbelievably good Fear and Greed daily
newsletter Crazy good. Oh yeah, there is a link in
today's shown as well. If you are one of the
(17:01):
few who has not yet signed up, then please do
so today. Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Michael.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
It is Thursday, the sixteenth of October twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael
Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The Australian economy's speed limit, the rate that can grow
without causing inflation, has fallen to two percent, which doesn't
uber well for rate cuts. There's less than one month's
supply of jet fuel, petrol and diesel in storage across
the country, raising the risk of shortages and the improbable
renewable energy boom in the US under Donald Trump. Plus
(00:29):
Commonwealth Bank boss Matt Common to stay in the job
for at least another three years, and reports that one
million AMEX cardholders have had their data stolen. It is Thursday,
the sixteenth of October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson
and good morning Sean Ailner. Good morning, Michael, Sean. Something
for everyone today. The main story this morning, the Australian
(00:50):
economy speed limit has fallen to about two percent per
year as a result of slowing productivity, which we've been
talking about a lot about productivity challenge, and wages can
only grow at three point two percent annually without pushing
up inflation.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
The estimates from Reserve Bank Chief economist Sarah Hunter came
in a speech yesterday in which she also said inflation
could be higher than first thought, which is a blow
to hopes of rate cuts. Hunter said productivity growth is
the determinant of sustainable real wages growth because it allows
wages to rise without causing inflation. Now, a speedment in
(01:25):
an economy is what it can grow at without triggering inflation.
Over the longer term, Australia's economy has averaged about two
and a half percent a little above that, So two
percent is actually a very low rate. The fact that
Hunter nominated the number, I think that's pretty impressive. It
(01:46):
also highlights just how damaging slave productivity is to our economy.
Hunters said productivity growth in Australia has slowed since the
mid two thousands, more so than in comparable economies like
the US, the United Kingdom and the European Union. She
blamed low business investment, the slow integration of new technology,
and the growth in the non market sector over the
past twenty years. The sectors with the lowest productivity growth
(02:09):
were mining, utilities and manufacturing. The sectors with the highest
were information media I think podcast Michael, agriculture, and professional services.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
We are very productive here at Fear and Greed.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
I can vouch for this so many shows in one day, Oh.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Goodness, unrelenting. Some would describe it sean, but so done informative.
That's the answer here, Sean. Is it Artificial intelligence? Is
AI the savior? Can it solve Australia's productivity challenges? A
lot of analysts have suggested that that's the case. Is
it actually going to fix the problem.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Theoretically it should work. It should allow us to do
more with less. That's what productivity is more.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
I don't like the way you said theoretically there and
seeing it to some extent, I mean mostly in the
US rather than Australia.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Said, there's this huge investment underway in all things AI.
I think data centers, optic fiber or fiber optic, I
don't know what when it became optic fiber, then fiber
optic energy, larger language models, software, So that's all helping
productivity levels. And as I said, particularly in the US
and in fact then that country, productivity growth is running
ahead of pre COVID levels. But as always, a butt
(03:26):
isn't there. In economics, Sarah Hunter had a big noteive
caution yesterday. She said it will take time for AI
to emerge and disrupt It isn't something that takes three
to six months. It'll take much longer. In fact, it
could take a number of years for it to flow through.
As a result, the Reserve Bank is forecasting productivity of
just zero point seven percent a year in the near term.
(03:49):
That's very low. What's all that mean. It means productivity
isn't going to stop inflation pressures. Or if we had
productivity growth, you'd expect the Reserve Bank to cut into
traits more because you can afford to cut interest rates more.
That ain't going to happen anytime soon. Basically, it's why
interest rates on mortgages that you're paying now, on business
(04:09):
lands that you're paying now, they're not going back to
where they were a couple of years ago. And whatever
you have now, I reckon that's close to the new norm.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
Okay. It's an interesting point about the length of time
that it's going to take AI to disrupt, because we've
seen kind of the early stages of it and it
has been a really bumpy process. For an instance, when
Commonwealth Bank was replacing some call center or essentially jobs
(04:39):
with chatbots AI chatbots, and there were all kinds of
problems and it actually ended up creating more work, not less,
and it was not a smooth rollout at all. That
actually does entirely support what Sarah Hunter's saying that this
is going to be a long term thing rather than
a quick fix.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Right. Yeah, and technology doesn't lose jobs, It just changes
where people working and say we need more technology based jobs,
you know, or maybe it's more service based jobs, or
you know, it actually shifts where jobs are rather than
cutting jobs.
Speaker 1 (05:17):
Okay, now, Sean moving away from the Reserve Bank. This
is a little bit alarming this story. Australia has less
than one month's worth of jet fuel, petrol and diesel
in storage, and as the only country failing to meet
its international treaty obligations to have enough oil in case
of a global emergency.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
It means Australia may be unable to stock supermarket and
pharmacy shelves, for example, or operate freight between states in
the event of a severe global supply chain disruption. That
might seem unusual, but we had one in COVID, for example,
Australia had oil stores equivalent to just forty nine days
worth of net inputs as at July twenty twenty five.
According to the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment
(05:59):
and War as reported in the fin Review. Now, based
on normal consumption rates, the Department estimated Australia had just
twenty days of jet fuel, twenty four days of diesel
in twenty eight days of petrol supplies in July. That
basically means I'll be driving my car for four weeks
u for three and a half weeks. The data only
includes stock on land and in domestic coastal waters.
Speaker 1 (06:22):
Is this unusual though? This sounds Honestly, it sounds very alarming,
and I know I tend to be a little bit alarmist. Yes,
this is actually quite concerning.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
It's actually not that unusual. The figure in July was
close to the record low levels reached in twenty seventeen,
so obviously not good. Far beneath the ninety day requirement
under a global treaty signed with the International Energy Agency
about fifty years ago. But Australia has been non compliant
with that ninety day obligation for more than a decade
since twenty twelve, so it actually isn't that unusual. Of
(06:55):
the twenty seven members who are net oil importers like Australia,
the International Energy Agency data shows they had an average
of one hundred and forty one days of import coverage
as at the middle of this year in Australia. As
we said, though, he's around that forty nine day level.
New Zealand was ninety two days. That was the next
least best or next worst, I suppose. So yeah, look,
(07:18):
it's not unusual, but it's probably not a total crisis yet.
Speaker 1 (07:23):
Okay, all right, turning to local markets, how did things
go yesterday? On the ASX.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Preferbial Sea of Green Michael there's some fix two hundred
closed up one percent to just under nine thousand points.
The in fact, of the top twenty stocks, only one
Insuring QB ended lower yesterday. Healthcare Materials and Financials R
the way CSL jump more than two and a half percent,
forty SQW, Medals, Westpac, nab Rio, Tinto, They're all up
(07:50):
around two percent.
Speaker 1 (07:51):
Good day on the market, and Sean Gold has hit
yet another record. I think we say that pretty much
every day now. It seems to be when we talk
about the proverbial sea of green. Another one that I
love is using the term the precious metal when you
run out of wayte to describe gold.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
There's only three ways to describe gold, Michael gold, precious metal,
or bullion. Any listener's got otherways. Send them in because
I'm sick of using.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
We will be very grateful to receive them anyway. The
latest price spike is boosted by an escalation in US
China frictions and bets at the Federal Reserve in the
US will cut interest rates twice more this year.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
Yeah, a little more on the trade will later on.
Thirty six hours ago or so, Jerome Powell, the US
Fed Reserve boss, suggested that there would be more rate
cuts coming on the back of a softer labor market
in the US that pushed bullion ie the precious metal
IE gold to a fresh peak of US and eighty
five dollars an ounce. Spots. Silver also hit another all
(08:52):
time high. I remember twenty four hours ago were saying
it hit its highest level since nineteen eighty keeps going
fifty three dollars and fifty four an ounce. It actulutely
tumbled later in the day amid signs a squeeze is
starting to ease. The question on gold, though, isn't worth
buying at this point now? JP Morgan, Chief executive Jamie
Diamond was asked that yesterday. Jamie Diamond's kind of the
(09:14):
guru of Wall Street bankers, I would say, and when
you're a Wall Street banker, right, you don't invest in
gold by nature. You want to make money, take risk
all that. He said, it's semirational to own gold. I
quote him, I'm not a gold buyer. It costs four
percent to own it.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
I e.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
That's what you're not earning on a bond. So if
you own it, you don't get a coup on payment.
So not a goal buyer. It costs four percent to
own it. It could easily go to five thousand US
dollars ten thousand US dollars in environments like this. Now
he's probably you know, hyperbole. There still the fact that
Jamie Diamond's saying that is relevant. Meanwhile, all prices are
at a near six month low, branch trading around sixty
(09:56):
two US dollars a barrel. We might not much have
much petrol left, but the good new it's not going
to cost us too much, and the Aussie dollars buying
just under sixty five US Saints Michael.
Speaker 1 (10:05):
Yeah, there's not much of it, but what is there.
It's pretty cheap. Sean will be back at a moment
with the rest of the day's business news Sean. Commonwealth
Bank boss Matt Common is set to stay in the
job until twenty twenty nine, which would make him one
of the longest serving bank CEOs now. If the lenders
(10:28):
share price keeps rising, it would also make him one
of the most successful as well.
Speaker 2 (10:32):
Very true. At Commonwealth Banks annual general meeting in Brisbane yesterday,
the bank's chair Paul O'Malley was re elected for his
final three year term. He said the appointment of the
next CEA will be a task for the banks next chairman.
That pushes out Common's contract until late twenty twenty eight
or early twenty twenty nine at the earliest. That will
take the tenure of Common, who turns fifty next month,
(10:53):
to at least a decade. Very young to have this job.
I got to say the average tenure among ASEX fifty
CEOs is about six years now. Chane Elliott left this
year after nine and a half years at A and Z.
So you know Matt Common tent. I mean, he's done
a great job. The share price has done very well
keeping that up given how highly valued it is will
be a tricky one though for the next three years.
Speaker 1 (11:13):
Oh yeah, And speaking of banks, up next after the
show Sean is Fear and Greed, Q and A. Where
your guest today is Matt Wilson from Jarden and it's
all about banks.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
It is a great chat. I say, tell me about
Commonwealth Bank, National Australian Bank A and ZED Westpac. Then
we talk about Bank of Queensland and Benny going to Adelaide.
I say, which one do you like best? Which is
best one for investors? What's it all meant for consumers?
It is a really really if you want to invest
in banks, and given the what they're twenty five thirty
percent of the market, you don't have much choice. You
must listen to this interview from Matt.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
It's great, yeah, good research. It is coming up after
the show, so stick around for that one. In the meantime.
Sean more than one million American Express card holders in
Australia maybe at risk of privacy breaches, fraud and identity
theft due to systemic fail failures in the company's security controls.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Nine media newspapers are reporting the risk after obtaining a
confidential report by Australia's privacy watchdog, the Office of the
Australian Information Commissioner. The Privacy Watchdog began investigating MS after
an employee accessed his ex partner's financial transactions. American Express
disputes the findings of the report, which claimed that the
financial giant breached privacy laws, acted unreasonably, gave misleading information
(12:26):
during regular to investigations, and has gaping holes in its
technology security that require immediate fixing. As I repeat, MS
refutes these particularly findings. THEAIC reportedly found that American Express
was not tracking the access of employees to customer accounts
in seventy eight percent of its systems.
Speaker 1 (12:45):
Sean there was a stack of corporate news around yesterday.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
The collective noun for corporate news is stack. Is that right?
Speaker 1 (12:53):
Well, I I was tossing up the stack or a
X tonight boat load to take your pick. Really. The
Bank of Queensland rallied after the Land of raised it
Stevidenda reported an improved annual profit helped by commercial landing,
which offset a shrinking mortgage book.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Telix Pharmaceuticals jumped seventeen percent best on the ASEX two
hundred after it upgraded its profit guidance. The chair of
cans and bottles maker Aurora says its business in France,
which it spent two point two billion on a couple
of years ago, has not met expectations. The hriable Ce
launched a probe into the Southern Cross Medias into Southern
Cross Medias proposed takeover of Seven West Media, flaking concerns
(13:37):
it may reduce competition for advertisers and audiences. Drone Share,
one of our favorites, launched a new software platform called
Drone Centry C two. Apparently it has a European buyer,
but its share price fell ten percent yesterday. Worst of
the ASEX two hundred and chairs and gold producer, Evolution
Mining dropped even as the company said it was on
track to deliver production and cost guidance targets.
Speaker 1 (13:59):
That was the interesting said about Aurora, the cans and
bottled maker talking about the Savor glass business. Not kind
of meeting expectations. It's very good in the glass business
to be transparent.
Speaker 2 (14:12):
Moving on, I was waiting for it. I could see
your face and I knew it was coming. You'd been
thinking about it, couldn't.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
It was inevitable. I had to wait so long while
he went through all those other stories before I could
get back to it. Anyway. Turning to international news, now
sean hostilities between the US and China are growing, with
US President Donald Trump saying he might stop trade in
cooking oil with China.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
He came after Beijing said it would not buy American
soy beans. Trump called that decision an economically hostile act
that pushed Wall Street lower. Just hours before the spat,
both Trump and US Trade represented Representative Jemison Greer expressed
confidence that friction would ease through ongoing trade talks. Now,
(14:56):
so called used cooking oil UCO has become a flat
point in the US this last year or so. Imports
used to make renewable diesel fuel has raised concerns in
American soy farmers. We're missing out on demand. So they've
been inputing the used cooking oil, using it rather than soybeans.
Donald Trump's not happy about that. Trump's comments came as
(15:17):
farmers have been suffering from low crop prices while China
has been avoiding US soybeans. Soybeans is a massive crop
in the US, so you know, a big political play there.
Speaker 1 (15:28):
Speaking of the US president, here's overseeing a renewable energy
boom despite doing everything he can to roll back clean
energy tax credits and throw out roadblocks to renewable energy projects.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
I reckon this will annoy him. I mean, in the
long run, what he's doing will mean fewer wind and
solar farms will be built than otherwise would have. But
right now it's triggering a boom in the sector. That's
because companies are racing to install solar panels, wind turbines,
and batteries the size of shipping containers before federal tax
tax credits expire or become harder to claim. The pipeline
is so big that analysts why we expect the US
(16:00):
to add a near record and potentially a record amount
of renewable energy and batteries next year, according to a
report in The New York Times. Now Bloomberg and EF
the research firm, recently raised its forecast for how much wind, solar,
and batteries the country will add next year by more
than ten percent. Many of the projects under construct well,
the projects need to be under construction by July to
(16:21):
be eligible for federal tax credits. To hit that deadline,
many developers they've ordered custom power transformers, which a device
is used to increase and to increase voltage more solar
panels other equipment much sooner than they normally would have.
So ironic as it sounds, donald Trump is overseeing a
renewable energy boom.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
There we go. Up next Sean is Fear and Greed
Q and A. As we mentioned before, Matt Wilson from
Jarden all about investing in banks is coming up in
the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or
at Fearangreed dot com todau, which is where you sign
up for the just unbelievably good Fear and Greed daily
newsletter Crazy good. Oh yeah, there is a link in
today's shown as well. If you are one of the
(17:01):
few who has not yet signed up, then please do
so today. Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Michael.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
It is Thursday, the sixteenth of October twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael
Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.
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