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October 14, 2025 15 mins

Wednesday 15 October 2025

Today, several key commodities are on a run, with surges in the prices of gold, silver, iron ore, rare earths and uranium. 

  • The Reserve Bank cautious about further interest rate cuts. 
  • Australia will begin manufacturing missiles. 
  • Are the supermarkets heading towards a price war in the run up to Christmas? 
  • Taylor Swift’s latest album smashes more records.

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
Several key commodities are on a run, with surges in
the prices of gold, silver, iron ore, rare earths and uranium,
The Reserve Bank cautious about further interest rate cuts, and
Australia will begin manufacturing missiles. Plus are the supermarkets heading
towards a price war and the run up to Christmas

(00:26):
and Taylor Swift's latest album Smashes More Records. It is Wednesday,
the fifteenth of October twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson
and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

Speaker 2 (00:35):
Good morning, Michael Sewan.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
The main story this morning several key commodity prices are
on a run, with record high prices for gold and
silver and a new peak for iron ore, as well
as surging interest in rare earths and uranium, pushing local
mining stocks higher. It's been a heck of a twenty
four hours.

Speaker 3 (00:52):
It sure has all about investor risk, appetite rising after
President Donald Trump's administration signaled an openness to a deal
with Beijing to dampen trade tensions. Meanwhile, China's Ministry of
Commerce urged further negotiations to resolve outstanding issues, put those together,
and hot commodity prices Michael. Starting close to home, iron

(01:13):
ore prices it training over one hundred and nine US
dollars a ton, the highest level since February, sending the
share prices of the local miners higher. Chinese steel production
the first nine months of the year was up four
percent on last year. Steel exports are up nine percent. Also,
new figure show global demand for steel steady. All that
information boosted the price of or spot gold pushed beyond
four thou one hundred and nine US dollars an ounce

(01:35):
on the back of the US China trade tensions and
the big gold miners Newmont, Northern Star Evolution, Genesis Minerals
all rows Silver prices this is the exciting one touched
an all time high above fifty two dollars and fifty
US fifty two dollars fifty US announce, fueled by surging
demand for sayeavor and assets. Silver last reached these levels

(01:56):
Michael back in nineteen eighty. It's one of the few
commodities where the peak of the commodities boom, the seventies
eighties commodity boom hadn't yet been beaten. Well it has today.
That is exciting, isn't it.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
I wasn't even alive when they hit that when they
hit that level shown, I mean you were, I wasn't.

Speaker 3 (02:17):
I was absolutely remember it. Well, well I don't remember
it at all, but I'm going to pretend. So a
bunch of the silver miners, you know, silver mines, Son, Silver,
Andy and silver. You know, our silver mines really know
how to name themselves. They put the word silver in
their name.

Speaker 1 (02:30):
It's helpful.

Speaker 2 (02:31):
They're doing well too, very helpful. That's it.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
That is a heck of a story. And they're the
better known commodities. But away from those, the uranium sector
went on to run yesterday as well. It was just
this was just an incredible day.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (02:47):
Look, Uranian prices are probably about fifteen percent off their
highs of eighteen months ago, though in recent weeks they've
searched again. Yesterday, Paladine Energy's quarterly production reports showed that
their ramp up of a mine in the Ambia continues.
That pushed their price higher. So then that kind of
triggered a run on deep Yellow Benerman Boss Energy rare
earths minus they've been surging too now rare earths, of course,

(03:09):
the primarily used in electric vehicles and defense equipment. China
has imposed restrictions and rare earths. That's helping all the
other rare earths like the Australian companies. Also yesterday, Brazilian
rare earths jumped seven percent after ginner Reinhart, a Gina
right heart company announced it had phrased one hundred and
twenty million dollars as it seeks to develop a new project.
So plenty going on in rare earths, Plenty going on

(03:31):
across the commodity sector, Michael.

Speaker 1 (03:33):
Was there anything else happening on the AX yesterday, Sean?
Or is that really all that matters?

Speaker 3 (03:38):
All that matter? That's all that matters, Michael. You know,
the SPA SX two hundred closed up just to touch
to just under eighty nine hundred points. The resource of
stocks did well, obviously, we went through that pretty much
everyone else didn't. The bank's fell, retailers fell, consumer discretionary
stocks fell. So not a lot going on outside commodities.

Speaker 1 (03:57):
Okay, let's talk interest rates, Sean. The Reserve Bank Board
is in no hurry to cut rates, and any further
changes in monetary policy will depend on data releases, notwithstanding
current rates settings are slowing the economy somewhat.

Speaker 3 (04:12):
That's the key takeout from the release of the Reserve
Bank Board minutes yesterday. The Board judge the labor market
still a little tight and doesn't expect much change in
the short term, but hot at it. Then expected monthly
inflation figures for July and August concerned board members.

Speaker 2 (04:26):
In particular.

Speaker 3 (04:27):
They highlighted stronger than expected price growth and so called
market services catering, dog grooming, those types of things, as
well as the cost of building new homes. These trends,
the Mints note suggests the new September quarterly inflation data,
set for release at the end of this month, which
is just before the November four Reserve Bank Board meeting,

(04:49):
those figures might be higher than the staff had expected,
and maybe the Reserve banks misjudging the underlying strength of
the Australian economy. That not fighting words for people wanting
to cut interest rates. Michael financial markets have now our
priced in a less than fifty percent chance of a
rate cut at next month's board meeting.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
Now, business confidence rebounded in September sean climbing three points
to sit above its long run average after really a
wobble in August. It's a technical term that, yeah.

Speaker 2 (05:19):
It is a technical term. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (05:20):
Look, this National Australia Bank Business Sediment survey is pretty
good really, although sort of there are some worrying concerns
beneath the service of the surface. Business conditions remain flat
as gains improfitability are offset by weaker employment. Forward orders
dropped three points to slip into negative territory. That's not
so good, but National Australia Bank Chief economist Sally Old

(05:42):
said overall, the survey shows that the economy has held
onto the better momentum from the June quarter into the
September quarter. Improving conditions in mining, manufacturing, construction and transport
and utilities were offset by softening in conditioned conditions in
the services sector retail and wholesale.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
Seawn, It's my favorite time of the week. It is Wednesday.
It is time for business by numbers. The top three
numbers to know for the week brought to you by
zero zero dot com slash au. Give us the first
number one from your youth.

Speaker 3 (06:15):
How how can you go past fifty two dollars and
fifty us since announce the price of silver resetting the
high that was last reached in nineteen eighty.

Speaker 1 (06:27):
Number two. What's the second number?

Speaker 3 (06:29):
Forty four percent? What markets have priced in as a
chance of a rate cunt in November? A little disappointing
or all hoping for a rate cunt. I'm not so
sure now.

Speaker 1 (06:38):
Yeah, it doesn't look good. Last one, Number three? What
is it?

Speaker 2 (06:41):
Four million? We'll get to this story.

Speaker 3 (06:43):
That's the sales of Taylor Swift's The Life of a
Show Girl in the first week of releasing the US
new record.

Speaker 1 (06:50):
That not too shabby? Okay, quick break back in a
moment with the rest of the day's business news saw
in Australia will begin manufacturing missiles domestically by the end
of this year, with the announcement coming days ahead of
Prime Minister Anthony Aberanese's meeting with US President Donald Trump.

Speaker 3 (07:13):
No coincidence there, Perhaps it isn't n I don't know.
The announcement came as part of a joint statement of
Intent Australia signed alongside the US and Lockheed Martin to
establish a sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise in Australia,
something we've always wanted. Defense industry Minister pat Conroy said
the goal is to have a missile factory that can
produce up to four thousand guided multiple launch rocket system missiles.

Speaker 2 (07:37):
Whatever they are.

Speaker 3 (07:39):
The capacity of the factory would exceed Australia's requirements and
could eventually support the needs of the US or other partners.

Speaker 1 (07:45):
Now, how about this one, This is quite something. Prime
Minister Anthony Abernese's personal phone number has been leaked online,
along with the contact details for opposition leader Susan Lee.
I mentioned this in the Afternoon Report yesterday, but there
was also so it went well beyond Australian numbers, US
President Donald Trump, French President Emmanuel mccron. Basically, if your

(08:07):
number wasn't on this list, then you're a nobody.

Speaker 3 (08:11):
The phone numbers were published by a US based website,
according to ED Media, who shared a video in which
Alberanzi's personal number was called. The pen's voicemail apparently says, hi,
you wrung Anthony Alberizi, If this is a personal call,
leave a message like it. According to the AFI, the
Prime Minister's office is aware of the breach and is
currently working with authorities to keep Albo's number private. The

(08:33):
phone numbers for former Prime Minister Scott Morrison and New
South Wales Premier Chris Mins are also among the details
leaked online.

Speaker 1 (08:41):
Now sean we might not be getting an interest rate
cut before Christmas, but we could be getting lower grocery
price as a price war in the supermarket sector might
be coming ahead of the festive season, with Colds chief
executive le Or work At saying she will do whatever
it takes to remain competitive with rival Wilworth. Those are
fighting words, those are.

Speaker 2 (09:01):
They are their speculation.

Speaker 3 (09:02):
Woolies wants to intensify their price war in a bid
to win back market share. Now in August, Wooli said
it would invest one hundred million dollars in lower prices
as it tries to withstand competition from Coal's, Aldi Costco
Amazon throw them into it. At the moment, Wickets Coals
is winning the battle with supermarket sales growth of four
point nine percent for the first couple of months of

(09:22):
this financial year. Wollies is at two point one percent,
so Coal's is winning, but we think Woolies is going
to have a crack at them. Wicketts said Coal's intentions
to remain competitive and relevant to customers and will do
whatever it needs to do on prices. Now, Woolies and
Coals still have a price premium to Aldi, though it
is narrowing. Coal's price cuts have been evident in a
bunch of categories sausages, beef, chicken, salmon, frozen pizza and

(09:47):
olive oil. Woolworths has expanded its lower shelf price program
in the past month from four hundred to seven hundred
items as it tries to lure back shoppers. So a
bit of a price war in the right up to
Christmas good news for consumers.

Speaker 1 (10:00):
Absolutely now it seeks. Latest Pulse check on job ads
in the market Sean shows that working from home remains
very popular in the insurance sector as well as tech
and consulting.

Speaker 3 (10:14):
Does this reflect your co workers? I haven't thought of
this until this moment, so like, I'm making it up totally,
So I don't believe what I'm going to say. Go on, Like,
if you're in the trades, hospitality, manufacturing, you're least likely
to work from home. Mind you their customer facing us bad.
So that's what that's about.

Speaker 1 (10:31):
Yeah, that makes sense.

Speaker 3 (10:32):
I don't know anyway. See which is the online jobs
board considered what ads mentioned work from home arrangements. Nine
percent mentioned work from home, a figure that's declined only
slightly since twenty twenty three, suggesting work from home is
definitely here to stay. As you mentioned insurance and superinnuation.
Just over half the jobs mentioned work from home in

(10:52):
consulting and text around thirty percent, legal and HR and
recruitment twenty five percent, Michael marketing commes twenty five percent,
twenty five percent. What are the other seventy five percent doing?

Speaker 1 (11:04):
Oh, they're all heading into the office clearly, like like
you know what, Sean, we have had a period of
where you and I haven't been working in the same
place because you've been working remotely. And I can't even
say you've been working from home because you've worked from
all over the world over various times over the last
little while. And we're soon going to be back in

(11:24):
the studio tun on Monday.

Speaker 2 (11:26):
Very exciting slot. Oh I've really missed you, Michael.

Speaker 1 (11:32):
Well, at some point I better get a souvenir anyway.
Now the scramble is on to try and find something
for the Fear and Greed to be like, oh crap,
they're expecting something. Turning to international news now, Sean and
Fresh from his success freeing hostages in the Middle East,
US President Donald Trump is set to welcome his Ukrainian
counterpart to Washington on Friday. This will be for talks

(11:56):
about how they can force Russia's Vladimir Putin to the
negotiating tape.

Speaker 3 (12:00):
It includes the possibility of Washington supplying American made Tomahawk
missiles to Kiev. The meeting will be Vladimir Zelenski's third
with the US President at the White House since Trump
returned to office in January. Trump and Zelenski held phone
calls out of the weekend, during which they discussed the
possibility of Natal allies buying Tomahawk missiles four Kiev, a
long range weapon that would extend Ukraine's strike capability as

(12:23):
far as Moscow and beyond.

Speaker 2 (12:25):
According to the ft You.

Speaker 1 (12:27):
Mentioned Taylor Swift earlier Sean and she has broken another
music industry record, with opening week sales of her latest album,
The Life of a Showgirl, eclipsing those of Adell's twenty
five from a decade ago.

Speaker 3 (12:41):
The Life of a Showgirl ended the week with the
equivalent of just over four million sales in the United States,
according to the tracking service Illuminate in twenty fifteen, Adel's
twenty five sold three point five million copies out of
the gate. This is all according to reporting the New
York Times. Of the four million Taylor Swift three point

(13:01):
five million I find this incredible were sales of vinyl CDs,
cassettes and digital downloads. Five hundred thousand came from streaming.
Showgirl sold an incredible one point three million copies last
week as a vinyl LP.

Speaker 1 (13:18):
It back to the Future, like, this is incredible, right
it is?

Speaker 3 (13:21):
It broken modern era record for first week sales set
by Taller Swift herself. Of course, Showgirl has become Swift's
fifteenth album to go number one on the Billboard two
hundred chart. Only the Beatles have more number one titles
with nineteen. The songs on Showgirl also drew six hundred
and eighty one million clicks six hundred and eighty one
million clicks on streaming services from American listeners. Spotify announced

(13:45):
that the Fate of Aphelia, the opening track on the album,
had become the most streamed song on that platform in
a single week ever, and this is on the back,
of course, of the Eras tour last year by far,
the highest gracing. It's a tour on record, selling just
over two billion US dollars and tickets for one hundred

(14:06):
and forty nine shows.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
Quite the phenomenon.

Speaker 1 (14:09):
Yeah, what's your favorite song from the Life of a
Show Girl album?

Speaker 3 (14:13):
I do very much like the Fate of a Failure,
the opening track. And I say that because I haven't
listened to it, and it's the only name I know.

Speaker 1 (14:20):
It's the only one you know, like, it's the only
one who've got in front of you right now. But
you did it so smoothly. I actually believed it and you, Michael, Yeah,
the same one.

Speaker 2 (14:29):
Yeah, favorite failure?

Speaker 1 (14:30):
Yeah, a big fan. We're a failure fellas here now, Sean.
Coming up next is Fear and Greed Q and are.

Speaker 2 (14:37):
Feel your fellas? I'm not sure that's about go on
up next.

Speaker 1 (14:40):
Fear and Greed Q and A. Sean And you're speaking
today with Luke Yamen, the chief economist from Commonwealth Bank.

Speaker 3 (14:47):
Yes, so, the Commonwealth Bank's economics team has just released
it's twenty twenty six outlook. We talk to Luke about
the state of the economy, but perhaps more importantly for
the rest of us, what's going to happen Interest rates
what's going to happen to house prices? What's happened to
employment market?

Speaker 2 (15:01):
Great chat with Luke.

Speaker 1 (15:02):
Yeah, it certainly is. It is coming up next to
the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or
at Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where
you sign up for that quite remarkable daily newsletter that
is nearly as good as Life of a show Girl.
As I mean, it's obviously a different genre, but if
you want to sign up, I'll put a link in
today's show notes, and this one's entirely free. Thank you

(15:24):
very much, Sean.

Speaker 2 (15:24):
Thanks Michael.

Speaker 1 (15:25):
It's Wednesday, the fifteenth of October twenty twenty five. Make
sure you're following the podcast and please join us online
on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson
and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.
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