Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use
today Inflation rises but not enough to take rate cuts
off the agenda. Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi gets his meeting
with Donald Trump at the end of a raucus un
General Assembly and what people really use chat GPT for.
Plus the latest trust rankings and Optus appoints an investigator
(00:27):
into last week's triple zero failure. It is Thursday, the
twenty fifth of September twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson
and good morning, Sean Aylmer, Good morning, Michael Suwan. The
main story this morning inflation. It jumped in August on
the back of the ending of some electricity rebates. And
while the uptick is enough to ensure that the Reserve
Bank Board will not cut interest rates when it meets
(00:48):
next week, the rise isn't enough to stop further reductions
in rates later in the year.
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Well that's a consensus view. Inflation during the year to
augustros three percent, slightly above expectations. The all important underlying
rate or trimmed mean CPI was up two point six
percent in the year to the end of August. That
was slightly lower than July. The underlying rate takes out
volatile items like electricity. Prices both headline and trimmed mean
(01:14):
inflation remain within the Reserve banks two to three percent
target band and a will below the peak scene a
couple of years ago. I was back in twenty twenty two.
In fact, over the last twelve months, the largest growth
in prices has been in electricity, so that's as rebates
decreased compared to a year ago. In eggs thanks to
the bird flu, coffee, teaen cocoa thanks to supply issues,
(01:37):
and tobacco and that's thanks to government regulation. Prices have
fallen though for smaller household appliances, garments for men, international
holiday travel, and.
Speaker 1 (01:46):
Books specifically garments for men, so yes, not women, is it?
So menswear is getting more affordable, but not necessarily clothes
clothes for women specifically men, that's.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Right, and not just clothes garments for men.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Undergarments go on, Michael.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
While services inflation is higher than goods inflation, seeing that
that's been going on for months years. In fact, the
most recent spike was from the good side of the economy,
so things like eggs, tea, and coffee, tobacco they're all goods.
That's what spiked out the past twelve months. Electricity, of course,
is a service. Some components of inflation remain sticky, notably rents,
(02:34):
new dwelling, construction costs, and parts of fresh food, though
rents in particular have certainly come down from where they
were according to Amps. Down to a sena, the share
of items with annual inflation below two percent is now
forty eight percent, while the share of items with inflation
above three percent to the top end of the target
band that actually fell to thirty six percent.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
So the bottom line here, then, Sean, is that underlying
inflation pressures are easy across a broader range of goods
broader range of services. So interest rate cuts are still
in the offing.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Yes, yesterday's data was monthly, and in four weeks time
or so we get the full September quarter, which gives
a much broader reading. We know that the Reserve Banker's
confident inflation is back in control, and while the board
meets next week, no one really thinks there'll be another
rate cut, given there was one last month, but that
doesn't mean there won't be another rate cut later in
(03:28):
the year. Markets have still priced in a strong chance
of a rate cut in November. Inflation is definitely in control.
We've found that out employment and re market remains pretty strong,
though it's off its peak unemployment rate of four point
two percent, but we saw jobs losses last month. The economy, though,
it's growing, but probably not fast enough. So financial markets
(03:51):
are pricing in a rate cut in November, and there
could well be more next year.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
So all in all, this wasn't at that batter result,
was it? Because it really depend on kind of and
it always amuses me or I find it interesting that
you can have a whole bunch of economists looking at
the same set of data and interpreting it entirely differently,
that some are saying that that there may be no
more rate cuts really needed, and some saying, yes, more
rate cuts on the way. But really, at its heart,
(04:17):
this wasn't a terrible inflation result.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
No, not at all. I mean it's suddenly for everyone. Michael,
you're a bit cynical on the view about economists there,
But you know bdsha's David Bassenesi. He's a guy who
said they shouldn't cut rates when they didn't cut rates.
He put an out out yesterday saying, well, you know,
we think that this data suggests that there's not a
lot of need to cut rates much more. Diane Messenia
I mentioned her AMP they've been on the rate cut
(04:44):
bandwagon for a while. They say that the data suggests
that there'll be won this year, another couple next year.
I mean, it's all in the eye of beholder, and
I think yesterday probably the data because it was higher,
people could jump on that. But we knew it was
going to be high. The Reserve Bank it was going
to be higher, and we've got inflation trim men inflation
about two and a half percent, two point six percent.
(05:05):
So really I think there will be rate cuts. But
there was enough in yesterday's data to suit any economists
you might want to chat to.
Speaker 1 (05:16):
Look so overall the result was pretty good, but it
was above expectations, and that did appear to spook local
markets a little.
Speaker 2 (05:24):
Yes the S and p ASX two hundred finished down
nearly one percent to eighty seven hundred and sixty five points.
Wasn't just prospect of fewer rate cuts here, but also
fewer rate cuts in the US. That was probably even
more powerful on our market yesterday. Yesterday morning, US Federal
Reserve chairs your own power failed to green light further
rate cuts. He reiterated his cautious view on monetary policy,
(05:47):
saying near term risks to inflation were tilted to the upside.
That's not words from someone who thinks they're about to
cut interest rates. Put that together with the local rate data,
the inflation data, and the interstrate sensitive stocks fell yesterday.
All the big banks will lower, so to Macquary Group,
the property companies dropped, Tech stocks will lower, zip wise,
(06:08):
TEG zero, Life three sixty. They all fel The more
defensive companies like Telstra, Coles and Woolies outperformed. Interestingly, there
are a few defensive stocks like Transurban, the toll road operator.
Normally that would do well in a day like yesterday,
except it drives much of its income out of the US.
So now more rate cuts in the US hit Transurban,
(06:29):
so it's underperformed.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
What about away from equities? Gold is still on the
app what's going on with the Aussie dollar?
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Well, yeah, goals trading arounds three thousand, seven hundred and
seventy five US dollars and now it's up nearly fifty
percent this year. The Aussie dollar jumped after the inflation data.
It's buying sixty six point two US cents. It's up
about seven percent against the green back this year. Iron
all still trading above one hundred and five US dollars
a ton, which is good news for big miners, and
Brent's trading at just under US sixty eight dollars a barrel,
(06:56):
and that's actually down ten percent this year. Have plenty
going on incomod it is as well.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Speaking of commodities, great conversation coming up after the show
today in Fear and Greed Q and A. You're speaking
with Vivekta, who is the head of Commodities and Sustainability
Research at Commonwealth Bank, who just knows this stuff so well.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Not only does he know it, he can communicate it
really well. So we run through what's happening in gold,
We mentioned silver, we talk about iron ore, we talk
about copper. I think the copper chat was almost the
most interesting of the lot. Certainly if you're an investor,
you're interested in commodities, this is a do not miss interview.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
If you want ten minutes that will make you sound
smarter at work, this is listen to. Yeah, absolutely, and
you can just drop these little facts into conversations at
work and everyone will think you are a commodities expert.
That's coming up after the show. In the meantime, Sean,
we'll take a quick break back in a moment with
the rest of the day's business news Sean. As the
(08:01):
United Nations General Assembly winds down, Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi
managed a quick chat with the US President Donald Trump
and he set up a formal meeting in a month's time.
Is now after the UK to meet Prime Minister Kirs
Darma and then on to the United Arab Emirates.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Yes, a traveling PM. He will return to the US
for the seventh time as Prime Minister next month, and
his third trip since June, after Trump finally granted him
a meeting at the White House. They did run into
each other at a reception. They said hello, and not
much more than that. Apparently Albanez he said he for
(08:38):
to talking to Trump at the White House next month.
So that's where that one was up to. It's benefitly
wild few days in New York, not least thanks to
Donald Trump using the gathering to blast Europe's immigration policies.
Blasted Europe about allowing oil to flow to Russia. He
called climate change the greatest con job ever perpetrated. He
(09:00):
claimed the UN had done nothing to end conflicts, while
he himself had put an end to seven wars. During
his speech, some delicates actually walked out, particularly as he
railed against the globalist concept in mocked green energy. Albinizi
and Penny Wong Foreign Mister was on the floor to
listen to that speech. Technical mishaps marred the appearance the
(09:22):
forty escalator and a broken teleprompter, prompting Trump to accuse
the UN of sabotage, believe it or not. And meanwhile,
did you see the video of French President Emanuel Macron
trying to cross the road to get into the UN.
He was stopped by security who said there was a shutdown.
He wouldn't be let into the UN building.
Speaker 1 (09:41):
So what did he do?
Speaker 2 (09:42):
He ran Donald Trump rang it on the phone and
he got him. And the great thing is you can
hear the conversation, at least from Mcron's side, and he said,
you know, there's a blockade, I can't get across there
by the way, can we talk about Gaza.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
It's fantastic, Yeah, that is great that the escalator and
the broken tellyprompter.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
It was just.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
It was quite theatrical, actually, wasn't it. And the faulty escalator,
and the fact that there had been rumors, there had
been reports, and I think this was in the New
York Times that people had been overheard joking about cutting
power off to the escalators when the president was on it,
and then it actually happened. So it's just not a
great look anyway. Now Sean Westpac will cut two hundred
(10:27):
bank teller jobs across its branch network, replacing them with
concierges who will help customers use the bank's app, ATMs
or website.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
It's part of a major restructure at the country's second
largest bank, and the plan is to reduce the number
of tellers but increase by two hundred the number of
home and business lending roles. The idea is that Westpac
introduces concierges to all of its branches to help customers
who come into the branch bank electronically for services including deposits,
paying bills, and switching money between accounts. With all respect
(10:57):
to my beautiful ninety three year old mother, Serge is
going to be abuts about to teach her how to
use electronic banking anyway. The strategy will be backed by
two hundred million dollars spend over the next three years
into Westpac ATMs and branches Suan.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
The latest trust rankings show the big banks climbing up
the rankings. Maybe those concierges will help. Bunnings is still
at number one, and the two supermarket chains well pretty
much stuck as the most distrusted brands.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
All four major banks improved their rankings, led by Comwealth Bank.
It jumped five spots. According to Roy Morgan, that's on
the back of increasing levels of trust. It's now on
the top ten again, ranking at seventh. National Australia Bank
had a good quarter with a rising level of trust
as well as decreasing levels of distrust. It came at
nineteenth West Pax twenty one a D fifty one. Of course,
(11:50):
the AINZ doesn't look very good, and subsequent to that
ranking it agreed to pay a massive fine over some
of its behavior, so perhaps it won't be doing so
well for the discount department stores. Big w which is
owned by Woollies, was up for the second straight quarter
to come in at number six. Target It's thirteen coming
(12:11):
in at number one though for the third straight quarter.
Bunnings followed by Aldi, Kmart, Apple and Toyota. The supermarket
giants Woolies and Coals are again Australia's two most distrusted brands.
That's three straight quarters behind them Facebook, Meta, Temu and
Tesla Jeepers.
Speaker 1 (12:30):
That's pretty damning for Tesla to be sitting alongside something
like Timu.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Right, It's pretty damning for Woollis and Coals to be
sitting alongside Facebook and Tu.
Speaker 1 (12:40):
That's a very good point, Sean Now. Optus has appointed
former investment banker and NBN director doctor Kerry Shott to
lead an independent review into last week's failure that prevented
more than six hundred people from calling Triple zero and
was associated with four deaths.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
OPTAs said the review will identify the causes of the
u S incident on September eighteen and examine how triple
zero calls are managed on its network. Optis Chairman John
Arthur said the board was working with Chief Executive Stephen
Rue to understand what went wrong, was committed to sharing
the facts and publicly revealed the outcome of shots review,
which is expected by the end of the year now.
Later yesterday, at a media conference, Ru acknowledged that Optus's
(13:19):
reputation had been damaged by the outage. He indicated he
had no plans to step down. There has been some
confusion of the number of deaths associated with the outage.
Who clarified that four people had lost their lives because
they could not reach emergency services.
Speaker 1 (13:34):
All right, turning to international news now sean super typhoon, Regaso,
which is one of these strongest in years, has smashed
into Hong Kong interrupted the southern Chinese coast early yesterday,
leaving deadly destruction in Taiwan and the Philippines. It is
really just wreaking havoc throughout the whole region.
Speaker 2 (13:53):
It is In Taiwan, fourteen people died in a flooded township.
Ten deaths were reported in the Philippines. There are many missing. Still.
Strong winds blew away parts of a pedestrian bridges, roof
and knocked down hundreds of trees. Across Hong Kong. A
vessel crashed onto the shore or into the shore, shadowing
a row of glass railings along the waterfront areas around
Some rivers and promenades were flooded, including cycling lanes and playgrounds.
(14:16):
At several promenade restaurants, furniture were scattered chaotically by the winds.
More than sixty people were injured and treated at hospitals.
Nearly one point nine million people were relocated out across
Gwandong Province in southern China. Schools, factories, and transit services
were suspended in about a dozen cities. Let's hope everyone
is okay.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Sean chat GPT, Let's talk about this. More than seventy
percent of chat GPT users are asking for help with
personal matters and how to get stuff done, rather than
using it for work. This is according to our first
of its kind study using millions of anonymized messages.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
So I used chat GPT for work end home? It
turns out that non work queer is comprise about seventy
three percent of interactions used to be fifty percent a
year ago, now seventy three percent mostly about writing personal
issues such as fitness and making information requests. The other
twenty seven percent were work related, including asking for help,
(15:15):
writing decisions, support, information processing, and technical help. How people
use chat GPT is the most detailed study released so
far about the AIS tools use was written by academics
from Harvard and universities. According to the Finn Review, overall,
three quarters of conversations with chap BT monitored by the
researchers fell into the sort of broad categories of practical guidance,
(15:37):
seeking information and writing. Prompts that were classified as personal
included these popular ones My wife is mad at me
and I don't know what to do well next month?
How did black holes work? Well, that's fair enough. Third one,
does ICE reduce pimples?
Speaker 1 (16:00):
God? I love to see that we are using these
huge technological advances so responsible.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
These are all issues that you know, mad spouses and
pimples that we haven't got a handle on yet. Query
classified as work rate and it include right PowerPoint slides
for a tax law conference like that. Rewrite this HR complaint.
I'm not so bad for former aggression on Alison on
(16:27):
this data. Research has said that workers in highly paid
professional occupations were more likely to use chat GPT and
concluded they found the tool most useful as an advisor
or research assistant.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Still stuck at them My wife as mad at me,
and I don't know what to do the whole thing
with chat GPT is. It's only as good as the
information you put into it, So I don't know. I've
can't given it enough to work with there all right,
it feels like that's a pretty good place to finish
things today, Sean. Make sure you stick around for the
VECDA coming up in Fear and Greed Q and A
next that's and the Fear and Greed playlist, or at
(17:01):
Fearangreed dot com dot au, which is also where you
sign up for our free daily newsletter. Thanks very much, Sean.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Thanks Michael.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
It's Thursday, the twenty fifth of September twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael
Thompson and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.