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March 31, 2024 13 mins

Qantas is one of the most high-profile companies in the country - and over the last year, it’s also been one of the most turbulent. So how is our national carrier seen by investors?

Jakob Cakarnis, Director of Equity Research at Jarden Australia, talks Sean Aylmer through the strengths and weaknesses of Qantas.

This is general information only and you should seek professional advice before making investment decisions

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Episode Transcript

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Sean Aylmer (00:05):
Welcome to the Fear & Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. Qantas
is one of the most high profile companies in the
country, and over the last year it's also been one
of the most turbulent. Ouch. From record profits and sky-
high fares to ACCC legal action over canceled flights and
the early departure of longtime CEO Alan Joyce, Qantas has
occupied more than its share of headlines. Now, new boss,

(00:28):
Vanessa Hudson, is trying to move forward with her own
vision for the flying kangaroo. But how do investors see
it? What do they like about the airline, what worries
them, and what does the future hold? Remember, this is general information
only and you should always seek professional advice before making
any investment decisions, including any investment in Qantas. Jakob Cakarnis
is a director of equity research at Jarden Australia. Jakob,

(00:50):
welcome to Fear & Greed.

Jakob Cakarnis (00:51):
Thanks for having me, Sean. Good to be here.

Sean Aylmer (00:53):
So can you broadly frame the strengths and weaknesses of
Qantas as we sit today?

Jakob Cakarnis (01:02):
Yeah, sure. I think it's as simple as having traded
now through a lot of the disruptions, as you mentioned,
from a restart following COVID- 19, I think the company
finds itself competitively on very strong footing and the best
way to encapsulate that is its dual brand strategy in
the Australian domestic market. So they've got the premium airline,

(01:22):
if you want to think about it that way with
Qantas and then the low budget end with Jetstar. And
then I think, to a certain degree, it's still trying
to find its feet internationally about where it fits in
the value spectrum for leisure travelers and business travelers as
well. I think coupling a very strong brand setting and
strong consumer following in Australia, the company's done well also

(01:44):
to repair its balance sheet, so undo a lot of
the damage that happens when you don't fly as the
network's set up to fly over the last two years
or through COVID especially.

Sean Aylmer (01:56):
Okay, so domestically then, it's probably in at least as
good a shape, perhaps better in terms of competitive environment
as it was pre- pandemic. Is that right?

Jakob Cakarnis (02:07):
Yeah, I think, Sean, you could make a statement quite
easily that it's in a better setting. And I think
some of that also has to do with how competitors
like Virgin have approached the market recovery. I think for
all of them dealing with high demand, but also a
recovering and increasing cost base has meant that they've all
had to lean as much as they can on price.

(02:29):
Naturally, that's going to be a part where they bump
up against consumers, and I think some of the frustrations
about ticket fares and availability, but also reliability of the
network are warranted. But I think you need to remember
also that there's a delicate balance that these airlines have
where they need to make sure that they can continue
flying and are also sustainable on a kind of midterm view.

Sean Aylmer (02:52):
I don't really want to go down the rabbit warren
of balance sheets and profit and loss, but I'm going
to just a little bit put my head in the
warren rather than run down it. I don't know a
lot about investing in national carriers, for example, like Qantas.
However, costs seem to always be a big, big issue
and revenue and costs, better correct me here, Jakob, but
I always think of them as moving in tandem with

(03:15):
each other. I don't know whether that's right or not,
but I know that there's a lot of talk about
Qantas's cost base. Can you explain that a bit better?

Jakob Cakarnis (03:23):
Yeah, of course, Sean. So one of the key tenants
I guess of the COVID recovery was that Qantas were
internally looking for cost savings. They told investors in the
share market that they could find a billion of cost
savings. As you rightly point out, sometimes the revenue environment
and the cost environment do move in tandem. And I

(03:44):
think for a full service airline like Qantas, one of
the biggest buckets that they need to carefully manage is
things like staff and headcount costs. Obviously, managing external stakeholders
like unions and diverse employee groups makes that a really
delicate balance, like I said. The one that's also just
as important for them is managing fuel costs. I think

(04:05):
relative to the international airlines, with the exception of Singapore
Airlines, Qantas is actually the best hedging airline for their fuel
costs in the world, so they do get some advantage
from that. But like I said, that balances out some
of the delicateness of having to take care of their
staff and make sure everyone's paid properly for the operating environment.

Sean Aylmer (04:26):
What about the fact that it is a publicly listed
company and some of its competitors aren't publicly listed, the
Middle East carriers, for example, certainly have government support. How
tough does that make it on Qantas?

Jakob Cakarnis (04:39):
Yeah, I think in the forward, like you said, the delicate
balance for Vanessa, who is the new CEO, is that
there's now a diverse range of stakeholders that she needs
to manage. The ones that you talk to, shareholders in
the past you could have argued quite easily that there
was much more shareholder primacy. The latest performance is showing

(05:00):
really that the company's trying to balance the needs of
the external stakeholders like customers, government, and also maybe to
an increasing but unnatural degree, the media as well. Just
along the veins of social license to operate, I think
when Qantas has at periods compromised its social license to
operate, it does make things like pricing decisions, which may

(05:23):
be economic for shareholders, much harder to get from customers.

Sean Aylmer (05:27):
Jakob, you should be a diplomat, because I'm going to
dive into what you just said then, but I'll be
nice. So Vanessa Hudson obviously took over from Alan Joyce.
The media piled on to Qantas and specifically Alan Joyce
over some of the decisions they made. What you are
talking about is kind of a kickback from that though,
isn't it? They have to pay more attention a little

(05:48):
bit to that social license, to their PR than perhaps
they have previously because of what happened 12 months ago.

Jakob Cakarnis (05:56):
I think that that's a fair summation. I think some
of the subtext of what I'm talking to is the $
230 million investment in the customer. Both you and I,
Sean, could agree and at a steady state, I don't think
we'd see too many customers explicitly calling out investments in
customers. So yeah, I think some of the redress really
comes through in the near term, lower profits for shareholders

(06:16):
from that reinvestment.

Sean Aylmer (06:18):
Stay with me, Jakob. We'll be back in a minute.
I'm speaking to Jakob Cakarnis, director of equity research at
Jarden Australia. So how do you think Vanessa Hudson has
done in the first period? Also, there's been some other

(06:39):
execs that have left the business, so a bit of
a shake up all around. How do you think management
is at the moment?

Jakob Cakarnis (06:45):
I think transition's hard for any company, Sean. I think
continuity, especially for airlines, particularly through the period that we've
just been through is so important and naturally there's going
to be friction points in management change. I think if
we talk to what we know so far, there's been
no explicit change to the company's strategy, that we're asked
a lot about the margin targets that they put to

(07:06):
the market under Alan's tenure about whether or not they'd
still be achievable and they haven't walked back from those.
So I think investors will judge them on whether or
not, although that a change in the personnel has happened,
whether there is actually continuity in strategy and then performance
from that.

Sean Aylmer (07:24):
So Qantas is spending a lot of money on new
initiatives. You called out the $ 230 million, I think you
said. A lot of that is about helping customers, but
there's sort of food and beverage and doing more on
loyalty rewards and that type of stuff. It's suddenly becoming
a bit service- oriented and it's a ridiculous thing to
say because obviously service is always at the heart of

(07:45):
Qantas, but they're trying harder in that area for customers.

Jakob Cakarnis (07:49):
Yeah, I think some of the glaring issues that they've
had, particularly on lost bags, on- time performance are things
that would force customers over a long period of time
to reconsider their purchasing decisions. And I guess what I'm
saying there is when you're paying what is a premium
price in the market, I think the expectation, rightfully, is
that you get a premium service. And what we're seeing

(08:10):
a lot of that investment should flex and catch up
the gap between the perception of performance and how Qantas
are perceived in the market by their customers and what
customers are actually having in terms of a lived experience
when they're boarding or waiting to board a Qantas plane.

Sean Aylmer (08:27):
A lived experience I won is a Sydney, New York
direct flight. How far away, Jakob, are we from that?
And I know that Qantas has boosted its CapEx bill
to buy new aircraft, but it just looks like the
long range stuff's been pushed back a bit.

Jakob Cakarnis (08:42):
Yeah, it seems like we've moved to the right a
little bit. I don't think it's anything meaningful as in
Qantas are readdressing their plans for direct flying. What we
get spoken to a lot about as investors or the
broader investor community is how successful Perth, London has been
for a direct point- to- point travel, where we are as
an isolated island, the notion of direct travel is super

(09:04):
appealing maybe for certain types of customers. So let's say
it's predominantly premium cabin- orientated or those that have pressing
time needs. How far away are we? It's a great
question. I think for it to be economical, I still
think we're talking about maybe '27, '28, so we talk
fiscal year, so that would put us in calendar year
2028, 2029. It still does seem a little far away,

(09:26):
but the technology's definitely enabled. It's about now getting the
right awareness around the business, but also the physical capital,
like you say.

Sean Aylmer (09:34):
What about the other stuff at Qantas? So frequent flying
is one part of that, freight is another part. How
are they all performing?

Jakob Cakarnis (09:41):
Frequent flyer, Sean, is probably one of the biggest discussions
and points of contention for the market and it has
been a fantastic growth driver and free cash flow generator
for Qantas. And I think it's fair in saying it's
almost without rival in terms of a loyalty scheme and
its profitability within Australia. But I think part of that's also
its greatest weakness, and like I spoke about before, the

(10:03):
investment in the customer, part of that will be in
Qantas frequent flyer. And I think what we're looking for and
the investment community is where when I'm addressing that is
how do they balance up the value proposition of points
redemption for customers? So I'm sure you have done it,
I've done the exercise as well is it just doesn't
look as though your points go as far as maybe

(10:24):
they have done in the past. So in order to
retain that loyalty, which ultimately benefits Qantas from its capacity,
its visitation, its preference as a brand over other airlines
is how valuable that loyalty program is to people. And
I still think, and rightfully the company's addressing this, but
there's still a gap to close to that articulated benefit

(10:46):
to their flyers.

Sean Aylmer (10:47):
Okay. And then what about freight? We can't have an
interview and not mention Jetstar as well. What about those
two operations?

Jakob Cakarnis (10:55):
Yeah, why don't we start with Jetstar. I think it's
one of the parts of the network that's maybe less
glamorous than the international first- class lounge and talking about
a rapidly growing loyalty scheme. It sits at a perfect
juncture in the market where it can go after the
leisure traveler at a very low ticket price with historically

(11:16):
very reliable on- time performance at a market position that's
very hard for competitors and especially new entrants to address.
So that's, for me, that's a jewel in the crown
that kind of needs some polishing to become clearer. I
think the investment community understands its value, particularly as a
jewel brand strategy if we can talk to it like

(11:38):
that, like I said, with the high- end brand, but
that's going extremely well and I think we'll continue to
see the strength from that business. Again, like all of
the business, Sean, it can just see maybe some of
the closure of that perception in value gap, if you
like, from people who are actually using the service.

Sean Aylmer (11:56):
Okay. And freight?

Jakob Cakarnis (11:58):
Freight's trickier now. We as analysts in the investment community
don't get a lot of transparency of the financial performance
of freight. The concern that I have there is that
as more international competition comes back into the Australian markets
as borders open back up and actually one of the
biggest flex points will be potentially with lower fuel prices,

(12:19):
we're going to see belly space, which is the space
within the general air travel industry open back up and
yeah, that will be harder for them to drive, I
think, Sean, as an earnings driver moving forward.

Sean Aylmer (12:32):
Okay, so I think, am I right in saying, Jakob,
that you've got a buy on Qantas and I hasten
to add to all our listeners out there, make sure
you look after yourself and get professional advice before making
any investment decisions. You have a buy, why, at the
end of the day?

Jakob Cakarnis (12:44):
At the end of the day, we think that there's
enough value from a investment fundamentals perspective in the share
price, but ultimately for us it's a well- positioned airline
in a global industry that's historically been very competitive with
a balance sheet boringly that's got a lot of capacity

(13:04):
to withstand some of the volatility that you'd expect with
an airline. And that's things like being able to withstand
shutdowns from COVID- 19 and also competitive volatility, like you said,
from Middle Eastern carriers or any other entrant that sees
the Australian market as attractive from a profit pool perspective.

Sean Aylmer (13:22):
Jakob, thank you for talking to Fear & Greed.

Jakob Cakarnis (13:25):
Thank you. Thanks for having me.

Sean Aylmer (13:26):
That was Jakob Cakarnis, director of equity research at Jarden
Australia. This is the Fear & Greed Business Interview. Remember, this
is general information only and you should seek professional advice
before making investment decisions. Join us every morning for the
full episode of Fear & Greed, daily business news for people
who make their own decisions. I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.
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