Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
Some of Australia's best known companies are among the worst
performing stocks on the ASX two hundred over the past year,
while the miners have been among the best. In twenty
twenty five. Fear of great hikes slams the local housing market,
and the Defense Department warns Australians about unexploded bombs ahead
of the holiday period. Class Communications Minister Anika Wells under
(00:29):
more fire over travel expenses and Netflix spies Warner Brothers.
It is Monday, the eighth of November. Brother December twenty
twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean ailemak.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Where where did November come from?
Speaker 1 (00:43):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
It was very left fist.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Sometimes it's a miracle if I get my name out right, Sean.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
So for listeners out there, it is Monday, the eighth
of December. The main story, Michael, take it away.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Oh so I got distracted by the unexploded bombs story.
It was a We've got some good stuff coming up
the main story this morning, Sean. The Materials Index, including
the big miners and the gold companies, has been easily
the best performing sector on the ASX over the last year,
while healthcare and the tech indices have been the worst.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
A title turnaround from last year when miners outside gold
could find very few friends of while tech stocks could
find very few enemies. Over the past year, though, the
Materials index on the AX, which includes the big three
miners and the gold stocks, it's up twenty one percent,
the Tech index is down twenty one percent. Health Care
is off twenty two percent. Now the healthcare is a
(01:37):
much smaller sector, and because CSL has done so poorly,
that has drag that one down. Financials always interested in
that twenty five to thirty percent of the market, driven
by the big banks lack luster year, the index flat
commof banks down three percent over the past twelve months.
It's very much weighed on the financials. The best performers
have been the gold stocks Regis Resources, Resolute Mining, Genesis,
(02:00):
Minerals Evolution. In fact, eight of the top ten performers
so far this year are gold or gold related stocks,
and that's thanks of course to these record goal prices.
But even the other mine is Michael Bagp up ten percent, Forestcu,
Meta Medals Rio, both up fifteen percent. Some of the
other better known companies away from the miners, generally Harvey
(02:22):
Norman Great Year up fifty percent, Challenger forty eight percent,
Telstra up twenty two percent, and pretty good dividend as well,
Transurban up fifteen percent or thereabouts. The best performer on
the market though, Michael, I'm on the ASX two hundred
the whole market a gold tidler called Dateline Resources. It
is up eight thousand, two hundred and thirty three percent
(02:44):
over the past year. It was point zero zero three
cents to share. It's now about twenty five cents to year.
In fact, it was one point it was up to
about sixty cents to share. So presume god, it was
running at about twenty thousand percent or something it's cost
since then.
Speaker 1 (02:58):
How to have a crystal Huh, that's quite something. Not
exactly a household name, though. What about the flip side
to all of this? The worst performing stocks over the
past year.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
Actually this is I think this is where it gets
interesting because many of the worst of the top twenty
are really well known companies, but it's not like there's
a theme through them, like all the strongest performers are
gold stocks. Clear worst performer Reese Plumbing. Second worst performer Treasury,
Wine Estates, Goozmani Gomez, James Hardy, Premiere Investments, Wise Tech Global,
(03:32):
bunch of reasons, poor performance in the US, corporate governance issues,
sell off of assets to previous overvaluation, previously all that
sort of thing. But I cannot remember a year when
the worst six stocks on the ASX two hundred. The
six I just mentioned were household names. The worst twenty
five of the ASEX two hundred. You can throw in
Dominoes and c Sel and Ario in Bendigo and Adelaide, Bank,
(03:54):
Flights and a Goodman Group. Quite amazing, how many high
profile companies they've done really poorly over the last twelve months.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Yeah, and big like CSL like that is that is
quite extraordinary?
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Goodn't Yeah? In credible Wise Tech Global? Yeah, absolutely, all.
Speaker 1 (04:11):
Right, Well, what can we expect? That's looking back? What
can we expect today from the share market when it open?
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Future training suggests the market will start lower, even though
Wall Street was slightly higher over the weekend. A big
week in the lowercal market, with the Reserve Bank meeting
today and tomorrow or no one expects a rate change
announcement tomorrow, plenty of interest in what Governor Michelle Bullock
will say about inflation and the future trajectory of rates.
Bond markets are pricing in a rate hike before the
(04:38):
end of twenty twenty six. Also, the US FED meets,
it's expected to cut interest rates by zero point two
five percentage points. The world's most important central bank cut
last month, though there was a difference of opinion about
whether they should or shouldn't between the Fed governors, and
that will be carefully watched this time around.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
The fear and greed the week ahead, I couldn't okay, Sean,
I'm having a shock.
Speaker 2 (05:01):
A tough mourning.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
I have so far lost track of the month that
we are in. I've lost track of the podcast that
comes up straight after this, which I recorded with Stephen Coculus,
our resident economists. I should know it. We are talking
about the week ahead, so we dig into all of
those things in terms of the RBA meeting, the FED meeting,
but also the labor force figures that come out on Thursday,
(05:24):
as well as something to keep an eye on that's
coming up after the show, so stick around for that.
The housing auction market. Sean has been given a bit
of a dose, bit of a taste of what higher
interest rates could do. With the preliminary auction clearance rate
falling to its lowest point.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
In a year, with expectations growing that the Reserve Bank
has stopped cutting rates and fears that may lift borrow
or cost next year, the market, which has had a
pretty good spring, hit a wall. Just sixty three point
five percent of homes that went to watch across the
capital's last week were bought down from sixty eight I
went three percent a week earlier, will over seventy percent
(06:03):
last month. Sydney's result was particularly poor sixty one and
a half percent, Melbourne sixty five and a half, Brisbane
fifty five, Adelaide seventy one percent, which was actually pretty
poor for that city. Volumes will lower over the weekend
and basically they will keep tracking down the volumes according
to totality. It's just whether or not these the I
mean I mean probably overstating it's saying dire preliminary clearance rate,
(06:26):
but fairly poor given what we've seen in the last
few months.
Speaker 1 (06:30):
I'd say dire By a comparison.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
I think, okay, I'm happy to go with dire good.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
I never shy away from melodrama, Sean. Anyway, we are
going to take a quick break. I'm gonna have a
cup of tea, get my head together back in a
moment with the rest of the day's business news, Sean.
Communications Minister Anika Wells is under the gun over her
use of public funds to take trips both locally and abroad,
(06:58):
but she does insist that who was working hard on
all all of the trips.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Yes, even the Prime Minister Anthony Alberanizi, fresh from his honeymoon,
had to defend her travel expenses yesterday. Wells has been
under scrutiny since the cost of the trip to New
York for her and two staff has came into one
hundred thousand. There were then reports she flew to Europe
three times in twenty twenty three twenty twenty four, at
the cost of almost one hundred and twenty thousand. The
finn Review then reported an Adelaide trip that included a
(07:25):
friend's birthday a cost of three thousand, six hundred and
eighty one dollars for flights, hotels, and chauffeur driven transport.
While yesterday The City Morning Harold said Wells build taxpayers
one three hundred and eighty nine dollars for her husband
and two of her three children to join her on
a work trip to the Threadboat ski fields. I get
(07:47):
that politicians work very hard, I think, and I feel
sorry for them the time of the way from family,
but pub test doesn't pass it. Wells insisted yesterday she'd
been working hard on all the trips and that they
are all necessar very Albertezy tell Abcas inside his program
that Wills had operated within the rules at least when
came to the New York trip.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
Yeah, and this feels like one of those things that
once there is an element of this being reported, more
do tend to come out this than the eighteen hundred
dollars to attend the f one. It's yeah, it's not
looking good. And you feel a bit for the Prime
minister as well, coming back fresh from his honeymoon and
having to that's the last thing you want, right to
(08:28):
step straight into controversy.
Speaker 2 (08:30):
I reckon, even when you're a Prime minister and you
get back to work day one, which he did yesterday,
you must just think, oh, really.
Speaker 1 (08:37):
When can I book my next trip? So in the
latest Opinion poll. This would at least be some good
news for him right. The latest opinion poll, this one's
in the nine Entertainment newspapers, says that support for the
Coalition has crashed to a record low and support for
One Nation has hit a record high, which is now
becoming a familiar story.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
It is the result of will monitor showed Labor has
a commanding fifty five forty five percent lead in a
two party preferred vote. Also showed that fears over Australia's
housing crisis and the cost of living are fueling frustration
over immigration, something that I'm sure the government will keep
an eye on. Labour's primary vote rows two percentage points
to thirty five percent. Coalition fell three to twenty six percent.
(09:20):
One Nation rows two percentage points to fourteen percent.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
The Energy market regulator says households should pay lower electricity
prices between twenty twenty five and twenty thirty as long
as the energy transition continues along the government's planned path.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
The Australian Energy Market Commission said the build out of
renewable generation, transmission and battery storage is essential to keeping
electricity prices affordable over the next decade. The good news
is that the regulator's base case is that prices will
fall around five percent over the next five years, supported
by renewable generation growth. However, if there's any slippage at
(09:57):
all in the rollout of renewables battery storage and transmission,
then households could face sharply higher prices. It called the
next five years a critical five year window as renewables
replace retiring coal fired power plants. We kind of know that,
but just the fact that the regulator, which is probably
the most sensible voice in the market, is not political saying,
(10:19):
if we can do what the government has it out
to do, we should be okay, now.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
Chat GPT owner open Ai Sean will become the major
customer of a seven billion dollar data center to be
built by next DC that will be the biggest in
the Southern hemisphere.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
This is exciting. Yeah, come on, Michael, Oh no, it is.
Speaker 1 (10:42):
It is. I was actually just thinking though that those
two stories actually do kind of fit together because the
data centers and the increase in the number of data centers,
especially one as big as this, It uses so much power,
so much energy.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
The data center will be used to run the artificial
intelligence models, tasks and queries of the growing number of
open ais Australian corporate clients. Now some of their corporate
clients big names like Comwealth Bank, West Farmers, fortes Keu,
Virgin Australia at Lassian. This is all according to the
fin Review. The center will be located in Western Sydney
and as part of Australia's push to become a regional
(11:17):
hub for data center investment already happening with some extent,
as demonstrated by the surge in business investment in data
centers during the September quarter. Open AI's chief executive Sam
Altman said Australia is will placed to be a global
leader in AI with deep technical talent, strong institutions and
a clear ambition to use new technology to lift productivity.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
Mentioned this next one at the top of the show, Sean.
The Defense Department has urged the public to stay alert
to unexploded ordnance devices, some of which will date back
to World War Two. Now, when we received this one
late last week, it raised a few eyebrows because I
don't remember ever seeing a warning like this come through
(12:00):
from Defense.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
No, I don't know that you pointed it out to
me because it's I mean, very interesting. So the Defense
said that unexploded ordnance devices uxos continue to pose a
risk to the communities around Australia, particularly when disturbed or moved.
Like you know, you see an old grenade, don't throw it.
I think that's what we're saying here. UXO is most
(12:22):
commonly found on or near former defense sites demolition ranges
fair enough, but also washed up on beaches. That's one
of the issues. The warning comes as some of holidays begin.
Of course, Defense wants people to be particularly careful in
areas with our history of military activity or following storms.
Defense have responded to over four hundred and fifty calls
regarding unexploded ordnance devices this year. As Defense puts it,
(12:47):
UXO include artillery shells, grenades, bombs, or other military munitions
that did not function as intended or when deployed. If they
were deployed in World War Two and they haven't exploited yet,
I think it's fair to say they didn't actually do
what they were supposed to do.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
I love the fact that we are now supposed to
put this on the list of things to watch out
for when we go to the beach. Just keep an
eye up for blue bottles, sunscreen, sunscreen, unexploited ordnance devices
check check yep. Turning to international news, now sean big
story this one. Netflix is set to buy Warner Brothers
in an eighty three billion US dollar deal, beating out
(13:26):
Comcast and Paramount and really demonstrating just how much Hollywood
and big tech are really starting to merge.
Speaker 2 (13:34):
So you sent me a story about this, and the
guy who was running Warner Brothers fifteen years ago kind
of poopered the idea that this mail out movie company
called Netflix would ever have you know much, it would
ever be a challenger to the great Warner Brothers. Yeah, well,
now Netflix is buying Warner Brothers. Absolute dramatic plot twist
(13:59):
for Netflix. Well done. Yeah, yeah, because they rewrote Hollywood,
because they basically just told people that they didn't have
to go to the cinemas anymore. You can watch movies
at home, watch television shows at home when you want them. Suddenly,
the thing it disrupted, it's now bought a mainstream studio Netflix.
It's been all about building stuff. So stranger Things Bridge
(14:22):
AND's a film like k Pop Demon Hunters. Haven't seen
that one, Michael, but I'm sure you have.
Speaker 1 (14:26):
Yes, of course, anyone with young kids in their household
has seen it.
Speaker 2 (14:30):
Multiple multiple times. Yeah, so they've built those sorts of shows.
Now they're going to gain access to Warner Brothers trave
of content. You know, we're talking things like Game of Thrones,
Harry Potter, the DC comics roster of superheroes, including Batman
and Superman. According to royd Is, the deal still needs
regulatory approval, lots of debt involved, not quite clear where
(14:51):
the synergies are, particularly until now, sort of Netflix has
been about building, not buying products. Even it's the Greek
Peace has spoke about that two months ago. But the
intent is clear. Now what this means for movie goers,
I reckon that's anybody's guess, because Netflix is the arch
enemy of moviegoers and or cinemas, and Warner Brothers, of course,
(15:16):
is a business built on movie going. I suppose it's
a bit like when Jeff Bezos brought the Washington Post.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
Yeah, yeah, And like I said, and look, there has
been a commitment, well that Netflix has said, hey, we
are still going to be doing theater releases. But Netflix
has in the past unlimited theater releases where it's a
small kind of release rather than the full run of
screens right across the US and across the world. And
(15:46):
there's a lot of concern in Hollywood now that maybe
maybe it it might be a lot more limited theater releases.
And we saw on Friday that a lot of the
US theater chains like AMC Entertainment and I were all
their shares were down kind of as much as eight
percent on Friday because of that.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Yeah, concern, Yeah, I mean, and it still has to
get through lots of regulatory hurdles, but really interesting.
Speaker 1 (16:11):
Yeah, yeah, it certainly is. Anyway. Up next Fear and
Greed Q and A, it's the week Ahead with Stephen Cacoulis.
It's coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist on
your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.
Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Michael.
Speaker 1 (16:26):
It's Monday, the eighth of December twenty twenty five. Make
sure you're following the podcast and please join us online
on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson
And that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.