Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The Reserve Bank is shocked markets by not cutting interest rates,
but Governor Michelle Bullock indicates a cut is on the
way by Minister Anthony Alberiz. He says he is pushing
for low of tariffs from the USA and Mineral Resources
considers keeping CEO Chris Ellison in the job. And that's
(00:27):
despite the fact that he admitted to tax fraud. Plus
unions win a test case against PHP on wage laws
and Elon Musk's political aspirations send Tesla's share price tumbling.
It's Wednesday, the ninth of July twenty twenty five. I'm
Adam Lang and good morning, Sean.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Aylmer, good morning, and Damski Sean.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
The main story this morning. Of course, the Reserve Bank
Board's decision to not cut interest rates doesn't preclude further
reductions in the coming months. Governor Michelle Bullock says, although
the shocked decision by the Central Bank today has certainly
fueled uncertainty over monetary policy, how are you seeing this.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Well, not often do you have a story where nothing
happened that getting their headlines like this one is almost
all market economists thought there would be a rate cut yesterday,
but the Reserve Bank opted for caution, saying it wants
to wait for more information to ensure inflation is heading
towards two and a half percent, which of course is
the midpoint of its target band. It said monthly inflation
(01:27):
date was at the margin slightly higher than expected. International
uncertainty remains, especially around US tariffs and trade policy that's
expected to have an adverse effect on global growth. Now,
the Reserve Bank Board says domestic growth is picking up
and there's been an easing in some measures of financial stress.
That's good news. The labor market remains tight. Also, there's
(01:48):
been fifty basis points in cut since February, and the
Board wants to watch that flows through the economy. In short,
the Reserve Bank just wants to wait and see, though
it sounds that if there's a buy it certainly is
towards cutting rates later in the year. A few things
in this Reserve Bank doesn't like to shock markets. Normally,
they telegraph what's going to happen well ahead of it happening.
(02:10):
That didn't happen yesterday, that's for sure. And for the
first time we heard officially that the Monetary Policy Board
was not unanimous. Six members voted for rates to stay
the same, three he voted for a cut. That sort
of transparency is probably a good thing, Adam.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
Well, let's work through the shockwave. Shan's the response. How
did financial markets and the government react?
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Immediately after the two thirty pm announcement, the Aussie dollar
jumped nearly sixty five and a half US sense market
interest rates also rose, while the share market fell immediately.
The more interesting response came from treasure Jim Chalmers. I say, Adam,
he sounded just a toush frustrated. So this isn't a statement.
This isn't like a doorstop where they grab him in
(02:54):
a moment. This is actually a considered statement. It's it was.
It's not the result millions of Australians were hoping for
or what the market was expecting. We have made substantial
and sustained progress on inflation, which is why interest rates
have already been cut twice in five months this year.
Now that's actually a considered statement. Imagine if you've got
a heat of the moment unfiltered comment.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
Yeah, so Sean upon this, will we see rate cuts
later in the year.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Yes, the consensus is yes, somewhere between two and four
rate cuts if the economy remains on its current trajectory.
Michelle Bullock, the Governor of Reserve Bank, said the bank
wants to take a cautious, gradual approach to easing monetary policy.
She went on to say, and I quote the decision
today was about timing rather than direction, i e. We
(03:44):
are going to get rate cuts eventually. The RBA focused
on the March quarter inflation in its statement yesterday, downplaying
the monthly figures. The next quarterly prices data is for
the Dune quarter, due out at the end of this month.
If that's benign, then a rate cut is likely on
the twelfth of August. They said that twenty four hours
ago we were saying a rate cut was very likely
yesterday and it didn't happen.
Speaker 1 (04:05):
So, Sean, this is an excellent interview coming up after
the show. Our Fear and Greed Daily interview with You
is with Lucy Ellis, chief economist at Westpac.
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Yes, and she raises the question, there's not that much
important data between now and the next meeting, so why
did the Reserve Bank wait now? Lucy certainly thinks that
there will be more rate cuts. She used to be
the chief economist at the Reserve Banks, so she's got
great insights into it. She also has a great take
on productivity, which is sort of goffing a tangent on that,
(04:35):
but you know she really is questioning why wait.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Great question and I'll tune into the interview to find
out Sean. Moving on, Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi says Australia
has the best deal possible with the US when it
comes to tariffs, adding that the government will continue to
push Washington for a zero percent impost.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
The Prime Minister said Australia has not given up on
negotiating tariffs lower than ten percent, but at least it
is as low as any other country in the world.
His comments came after Donald Trump started sending letters to
nations on tariff levels. The US then posted those letters
on truth social That's true transparency there. I suppose he
(05:16):
set a twenty five percent tax on goods imported from
Japan and South Korea. It will take effect on August one.
Then a bunch of other countries like imports from Me
and mahar and Laos will be at forty percent. Cambodia
and Thailand thirty six percent, Serbia, Bangaldes thirty five percent,
Indo Indonesia thirty two percent, South Africa thirty percent. The
letters warned the countries not to retaliate by increasing their
(05:40):
own taxes or import taxes, otherwise that Trump administration will
further increase tariffs Sean.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
Related to the tariff debate, the Productivity Commission in Australia
has warned that billions of dollars in taxpayer subsidies for
manufacturing and green energy they could actually be deemed trade protectionism.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
The PC in frank Advice, has subsidies under the Future
Made and Australia Banner and the National Reconstruction Fund could
be considered this way, according to the fin review. The
Commission also advised the government to lower prices for consumers
and compliance costs for businesses by extending cuts to so
called nuisance tariffs on more than three hundred imported goods,
including steel, appliances and plastics.
Speaker 1 (06:20):
Sean. Now time for our regular Wednesday weekly segment Business
by Numbers brought to you by zero dot com slash AU.
What's the first business by number this week?
Speaker 2 (06:30):
It has to be three point eight five percent The
official cash rates set by the Reserve Bank, which did
not change yesterday.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
And what is the second business by number?
Speaker 2 (06:38):
Sean, I think you have been ten percent. That's the
tariff Australia will pay on goods we sell into the US.
This is all happened just as the Prime Minister, of course,
is heading to Beijing on the weekend.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
And Sean, lastly, number three, what is the third business
by number?
Speaker 2 (06:56):
Well, it's about twenty six billion ossie about sixteen billion US.
That's the amount of money lost by Elon Musk in
one session on the back of Tesla's share price tumbling
after he announced he wants to form a new political party.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
We'll be back in a moment with the rest of
the day's business news. Sean Mineral Resources board is rethinking
plans for founder and managing director Chris Ellison to leave
the company. The decision for Ellison to depart came after
he admitted to involvement in a tax evasion scheme that
(07:32):
helped him personally at the expense of the company. Tell
us about this story, Well, it was.
Speaker 2 (07:37):
One of the biggest corporate governance scandals in recent years
and it seemed settled when the board announced to Ellison
would depart next year. Since then, since then, Minrez's share
price has tumbled, in part due to operational difficulties, and
now the chair of the company, Malcolm Bundy, says he
will review the leadership transition plan. Read between the lines
there not so sure Chris Ellison will go. Ellison found
(07:59):
that the company in nineteen ninety two. His role as
really divided shareholders. Now he's got considerable support from some
really big investors, but not some of the others. Minrez's
share price finished down one percent yesterday. It's in last
financial year I know, just can't remember the top of
my head, but it's certainly among the worst performing ASX
(08:21):
two hundred companies last financial year.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Sean BHP's lost its landmark challenge to union same job,
same pay claims for thousands of its in house labor
high workers, in a decision the union says will cost
the mining giant tens of millions of dollars a year.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
The Fair Work Commission Full Bench ruled that BHP subsidiary
Operation Services that's its name, was not an exempted service
contractor and twenty two hundred of its workers across three
mines in Queensland's bowl and basin were covered by the
Albanezi government's new labor high laws. Now the Mining and
Energy Union estimates the decision, which effectively means Operation Services
(09:02):
will have to pay its workers the same as Direct
Tires on their union agreement, will deliver pay rises of
thirty thousand dollars a year. More broadly, this is a
major test of the Albanese government's legislation's criteria to exempt
service contractors. It just they're not exempt shortly. So there's
broad ramifications for HP, the local coal industry contractors in
(09:27):
the rest of the economy. Big decision.
Speaker 1 (09:29):
Yeah, it's a massive test case. So sean Aldi has
done a deal with door Dash, launching home delivery for
the first time in Australia and escalating its fight its
competitive fight against will worsen Coals.
Speaker 2 (09:42):
These service commenced in Canberra yesterday. It will be rolled
out nationally in coming months. More than eighteen hundred products
including fresh produce, meat, seafood, dairy, bread and household stables
will be available via the delivery platform. The online grocery
segment now commands eleven percent of the market. I think
that's quite incredible that eleven dollars out of every hundred
(10:03):
is now online for those big grocery stores.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
Earlier in the show, you mentioned that the ASX fell
after the Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut announcement. How
did it actually finish the day?
Speaker 2 (10:14):
A bit of up and down, but by the close
here and PASEX two hundred was drum roll flat eighty
five hundred ninety one points. Not a lot going on.
Gold stocks did well in the back of a rising
price for the precious metal after the Trump trade letters
we mentioned those earlier on the show. The consumer staples,
utilities and property indeceas did worst, reflecting in part the
(10:35):
rate decision. The telco's financials and consumer discretionary indeceies did best.
Among the large caps, the big miners and retailers were lower,
while the big banks were mixed.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
Sean two major fund managers, that's Platinum Asset Management and
l One Capital are set to merge, creating an investment
group with about sixteen point five billion in funds under management.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
Under the DAL, l One Capital shareholders will hold about
seventy five percent of the new company. Platinum shareholders will
hold about twenty six percent. Quite a while in the making,
it looks like it's going to get across the line.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Sean. Here's a quick update to the Quantus cyber hack story.
The carrier says it has been contacted by a potential
cyber criminal who may have stolen the data of six
million frequent flyers.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Its systems were hacked last week. Quite as won't say
if it's been asked to pay a ransom. The frequent
flyer numbers, emails and names of six million customers were
potentially stolen. Fortunately no credit card details went but we
wait to see what comes next.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
In that story in international news, President Donald Trump hosted
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House yesterday
Australian Time, saying the United States had scheduled talks with
Iran and indicated progress on efforts to relocate Palestinians out
of Gaza.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
Trump said that the US and Israel are working with
other countries to give Palestinians a better future, suggesting that
the residents of Gaza could move to neighboring nations. Trump
and netnya, who met for several hours in Washington, while
Israeli officials continued in direct negotiations with Maas aimed at
securing a US broken gas to ceasefire and hostage release deal.
The President also announced that the US would send more
(12:12):
weapons to the Ukraine to help defend the country against Russia. Meanwhile,
Netnahu told Trump that he'd been nominated or at least
netna who had nominated a Trump for a Nobel Priest prize.
Speaker 1 (12:25):
Sean Roman Starovoids, who formerly served as governor of the
Russian Kursk border region invaded by Ukraine, has been found
dead in his car from a gunshot wound. And that
is ours after being relieved of his duties as the
country's transport minister.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
Yeah, so who's in the curse region. He then went
to become transport minister, and about three months after he
took that job is when Ukraine pushed into that curs area. Now,
on Monday, the Krimin announced that the fifty three year
old Starovoid had been dismissed from his position, gave no
reason for the same. According to the Telegraph of London,
(13:02):
he was then found dead in his tesla with a
revolver next to him. A spokesman for the Russian Investigative
Committee said, and I quote suicide. It's a primary version
end quote, and added that investigators working at the scene. However,
there's confusion about the time and location of his death
with woodio, with video footage appearing to show the body
(13:22):
being recovered from a wooded area some reports. So he
may have died later on Saturday or early on Sunday,
which is actually ahead of the announcement that he'd been
dismissed from his position. So we'll wait and see on
that one.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
An evolving story Sean. Elon Musk's political ambitions are doing
little for Tesla's share price, with the ev makers prices
falling more than seven percent yesterday.
Speaker 2 (13:46):
I have the weekend, Musk announced he's forming a new
political party, the America Party, focusing on House and Senate
seats for the next twelve months. After that, backing a
candidate for president isn't out of the question, Musk rat
on x Well shareholders and Tesla I prefer and mask
is focusing on car making rather than politics. And the
(14:06):
slide and the share price wiped out twenty six billion
dollars from Elon Musk's net worth in one session. The stock,
as in the Tesla stock has declined more than twenty
percent this year, large part on the back of Musk's
focus on politics.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
Sean, Apart from the daily newsletter, today, you've got the
interview with Lucy Ellis coming up next to in the Fir
and Gree playlist on your favorite podcast platform or at
Firmgreed dot com dot au. Thank you very much, Sewan,
and thank you Adam. It's Wednesday, the ninth of July.
Make sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
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