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July 13, 2025 14 mins

Monday 14 July 2025

PM Anthony Albanese starts his Chinese trip with trade policy, Taiwan, iron ore and tourism at the top of the agenda.

And more, including:

  • Preliminary auction clearance rate stays solid
  • Donald Trump puts tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the EU
  • Air India crash preliminary findings released

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use. Today.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi starts his Chinese trip with trade policy, Taiwan,
iron Ore, and tourism at the top of the agenda.
We might not have gotten a rape cut last week,
but that didn't stall home sales, and a lack of
poles and wires could force every large soul of farm
in Australia's southeastern states to switch off at least one

(00:29):
third of the power they generate by twenty twenty seven, plus,
Donald Trump puts tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union,
and preliminary findings of the Air India crash of last
month are released. It's Monday, the fourteenth of July twenty
twenty five. I'm Adam Langan. Good morning Sean, Alma, Good morning, Adam, Sean.
The main story this morning. Prime Minister Anthony Alberanzi is

(00:51):
in China and he's set to meet President Jijingping later
in the week, with US trade policy, Taiwan, iron ore,
and tourism heading the list of topics to be discovered.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Perhaps the toughest topic is Taiwan. The Trump administration is
pushing Australia and Japan to make clear what role they'd
play if the US and China went to war over
that country. Now, it's not a question the government really
wants to answer. Mister Albanesi told reporters in Shanghai yesterday
that Australia does not support any unilateral action, that's his

(01:21):
words on Taiwan, and that spending on both defense and
aid is about advancing peace and security in our region,
which of course didn't really answer the question. Australia operates
under a One China policy. It does not officially recognize
Taiwan as a sovereign state, although like many countries, it
engages with Taiwan informally through non government channels. The shadow

(01:42):
of Donald Trump and US tariff policy sits over the
Albanesi Shei meeting. Over the weekend, the White House put
tariffs of thirty percent on the European Union and Mexico.
They're both friends, remember that after living a thirty five
percent tariff on Canada on Friday. While the Prime Minister
is in China the week with him are representatives from
the business community, including executives from BHP, Rio Tinto and

(02:06):
fortes Hu Metals. Those companies need the favor of Beijing
to keep selling iron or now. Tourism might be the
easiest topic to discuss for the PM misster. Albanezi will
sprout tourism and sporting ties, hoping to lure thousands of
travelers back to Australia where visitors' numbers have They've bounced,
but they haven't really fully recovered from the pandemic. There
will also be other issues discussed, like things like the

(02:29):
circumnavigation of the Australian Maidenland earlier this year by a
flotilla of Chinese warships, including the failure to give notice
of live firing exercises in the Tasma Sea. I'm sure
that one will be brought up, so to human rights
abuses in China Sean.

Speaker 1 (02:44):
It's such a busy agenda. But what do you think
the Prime Minister wants out of the trip to China.

Speaker 2 (02:48):
I think he wants to achieve closer trade ties without
irritating the Trump administration. Defense is the elephant in the room.
ALBANIZI will have to be at his absolute diplomatic best
to carry favor with Beijing and not totally irritate Washington.

Speaker 1 (03:08):
It's a very delicate line to walk Oh sure is sure?
He is shan Amongst all of that, how did the
local markets perform on Friday?

Speaker 2 (03:16):
Well, the local share market closed down slightly to finish
the session at five at eight five hundred and eighty points,
meaning for the week it was pretty much flat. It's
around one percent off its record high of last month.
But really the big story on Friday came from the
Battery Minerals company. So late last week, the Pentagon took
a fifteen percent stake in a group called MP Materials
listed on Wall Street, actually backed by Gena reinhartch he

(03:38):
owns about nine percent of it. The reason that Pentagon
took a stake in it they want to get access
to non Chinese rare earths, China being the biggest producer
of rare earth the US and the Pentagon looking for
other places. That pushed MP Materials share price up fifty percent,
and local rare earth companies I Luka Liners they jumped

(03:58):
as well, So it's kind of an interesting story playing
out there. Future Training suggests a local market will open
lower today on the back of the US tariff announcements
over the weekend. The sector supporting the market funnily enough,
at the moment's resources with on all prices pushing to
nearly one hundred US dollars a ton over the weekend.
In fact, in the past three weeks, beachp's real share

(04:18):
prices are up around ten percent forty s QW middles
of about seventeen percent that whole. We talked about this
a week ago, the big switch and the idea that
it's sort of from financials to resources, and I mean
it's not fair to say it's playing out. I mean,
we'll know in six months time whether it's played out
or not, but certainly the signs suggest it's happening.

Speaker 1 (04:38):
And Sean, what about global markets, what's happening there? Well?

Speaker 2 (04:40):
Wall Street ended lower over the weekend on the back
of the tariff announcements, but it was coming off a
record high. June quarter earning season kicks off this week
on Wall Street, and just as critical as earnings will
be commentary from CEOs about the impact of tariffs. Bitcoin
continues its urge. It pushed beyond one hundred and seventeen
thousand US as a unit, quite extraordinary. The IOSI Dollard's
buying nearly sixty six US cents sean extraordinary is a

(05:04):
great word.

Speaker 1 (05:04):
And speaking of which, what is Donald Trump doing with tariffs?
It's pretty hard to keep track of this.

Speaker 2 (05:11):
So basically what he's doing is creating huge amount of uncertainty.
As I mentioned, he whacked on a thirty five percent
tariff on Canadian goods and thirty percent for Mexican and
European Union products. In the case for Mexico, he said
the country had failed to stop the cartels, saying it
hasn't done enough to stop the flower fentanyl into the US.
The European commissioned President Ursula von Delane my favorite name

(05:35):
in all of geo politics. Erslavonda Lane said the thirty
percent tariffs will disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains to the
detriment of businesses, consumers, and patients on both sides of
the Atlantic. Patients presumably that's all about pharmaceutical companies. Donald
Trump also said he's eyeing fifteen to twenty percent blanket

(05:56):
tariffs for other countries, which presumably wouldn't Australia. Now we're
supposed to be hit with a ten percent tariff, fifteen
to twenty percent, who knows? Who knows?

Speaker 1 (06:05):
So much to keep track of Sean's So for anyone
listening now who wants some help, go to the website,
sign up to the newsletter. It might be easy to
get the numbers in front of you. And speaking of
other fear and greed products, Shawn up. Next is our interview,
your interview with Damien Hennessy from Zenith Investment Partners. Tell
us about that, but.

Speaker 2 (06:22):
It's all about how to invest in these turbulent times.
So we talk about what the tariffs mean when it's
and losing its inequities, and then we talk about asset allocations.
So you know, the world's not just about equities. It's
bonds and alternatives and real assets, things like property and infrastructure.
So we go through Damien kind of had how he
thinks about his portfolio and constructing it in these turbulent times.

(06:47):
So if you are interested in investing at all, it
is well worth listen, Cracker.

Speaker 1 (06:52):
We'll be back in a moment with the rest of
those business news. Sean. We might not have gotten an
interest rate cut last week, but that didn't stop home
buyers over the weekend, with a preliminary auction clear and
straight across the country, staying solid at just under seventy

(07:12):
three percent.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
Really quite frisky. Those home buyers adam quite frisky.

Speaker 1 (07:18):
School holidays didn't get in the way clearly.

Speaker 2 (07:21):
Well, to be honest, there were as many auctions over
the weekend or over the last week because of school holidays.
Still sales are pretty good. Perhaps the fact that Reserve
Bank Governor Michelle Bullock made it clear that rates will
fall in coming months has a laid by a concern.
The clearance trait has now been above seventy percent for
about five weeks. This is not official, This is just me.

(07:42):
Whatever I see it above seventy percent, I always think,
well that's pretty good. Anythink below sixty seventy percent you
start thinking, well it's not bad, but it's yeah lukewarm,
yeah solid, whereas above seventy oricans pretty good. Melvin was
the busiest market, although it's clear and straight fell so
much to just over seventy percent. It's had a really
good run the past six or eight Weeksourne Melbourne Sidney's

(08:03):
clear straight hit a high for the year seventy six
point two percent. Adelaide was best to the smaller capitals.
It had a clearance straight of seventy six percent, followed
by Camera At sixty eight percent and Brisbane at sixty
one percent.

Speaker 1 (08:15):
Sean, I'm finding this particularly interesting. Almost every large solar
farm in Australia's southeastern states will be forced to switch
off at least one third of power they generate by
twenty twenty seven on the back of delays to new
poles and wires projects. And they are the one they
are the things needed to transmit the electricity generate.

Speaker 2 (08:34):
Yeah, it's fascinating how slow the infrastructure is to I mean,
it's just not catching up. The Australian Energy Market Operator
or analysis shows that the slow rollout of key poles
and wire progressing Victoria will limit the amount of big
of powerbeat renewable projects can produce. According to a story
in The Finn Review, major solo farms in Victoria and
South Australia a forecast have shut off rates of more

(08:55):
than thirty five percent in a couple of years time.
Several major projects are low like to be forced to
share more than sixty five percent of their power, The
analysis shows the AEMO Australian Energy Market Operatum said Victorian
and South Australia shut off rates are forecast to be
particularly high as the big growth of new renewable energy
projects has not been matched with equivalent both in the

(09:17):
capacity of the big electricity cables required to connect them
to the grid. Moral of this story, government, let's get
some of these powers and why polls and why is going?
Because what's the point of having all this renewable if
we can't actually get it to people and businesses?

Speaker 1 (09:31):
Great point Sean private equity group Pacific Equity Partners will
buy building services group John's Ling for one billion dollars.

Speaker 2 (09:40):
John's Ling has signed a scheme implementation deed with PEP
subsidiary Sherwood Bidco for the about four what dollars not
about adam exactly four dollars per share offer. It values
John's Ling equity at about one point one billion dollars
and enterprise value at one point three billion dollars because
we've got.

Speaker 1 (09:57):
A bit of debt there.

Speaker 2 (09:59):
That sent john Link's share price up twenty three percent
on Friday to three dollars ninety.

Speaker 1 (10:04):
Turning to agriculture, shown the outlook for crop production across
the country is expected to for this financial year with
lower volumes across most products, while northern New South Wales,
Queensland and southwestern Wa have had a good start to
the winter cropping season. It has been overly dry in
South Australia, Western Victoria, Southern New South Wales and northern Wa.

Speaker 2 (10:24):
Yes, so according to Abears, crop production in the new
financial year is tip to reach fifty point seven billion dollars.
That's actually down two billion dollars. The good news for
farmers is that tightening global grain supplies should result in
rising prices. A Bear's expects to drop in production eve
from some of Australia's biggest crops wheat, barley, sorghum, but

(10:45):
higher prices, so the net effect is for export values
to actually be the fourth highest on record. There's also
expected to be a slight drop in what they call
industrial crops, things like cotton, sugar, wine over shatting shadowing
all exports of soft commorities, of course, is the uf
tariff policy and our free trade negotiations with Europe, so

(11:07):
that will also come into play out of the next
twelve months or so.

Speaker 1 (11:10):
Sean social media use among Australian children aged ten to
fifteen is almost universal and accompanied by high rates of
exposure online harms on a wide range of platforms and services,
and this is according to E Safety's latest research report.

Speaker 2 (11:25):
Now I'm just trying to think. So my youngest is sixteen,
your youngest is fourteen. Yeah, it's very difficult to keep
them off social media.

Speaker 1 (11:34):
Particularly when all of their friends are on it. It's
hard to be a perception. Yes, indeed totally.

Speaker 2 (11:41):
The report shows ninety six percent of children in this
age group ten to fifteen had used at least one
social media platform, with seven and ten saying they hadn't
encountered content associated with harm. This included exposure to misogynist
or hateful material, dangerous online challengesviolent fight videos, and content

(12:02):
promoting disordered eating and suicide. Three quarters of these children
said they most recently came to this type of content
on a social media service.

Speaker 1 (12:12):
That is alarming Sean in international news, the engines on
Air India flight one seven to one briefly cut off
seconds after takeoff. A preliminary report into the jets fatal
crash last month has.

Speaker 2 (12:24):
Found India's Air Accident Investigation Bureau said in its report
released over the weekend, that the aircraft reached the necessary
speed to lift off, but that seconds later, switches that
control the flow of fuel to the jets two engines
transitioned was their word, from run to cutoff position now.
In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is

(12:46):
heard asking the other why did you cut off, to
which he responded that he did not do so. According
to the report, although the two switches transitioned back to
the run position ten and fourteen seconds later, the engine
has been starved of fuel and lost thrust. According to report,
theft leading one pilot to declare may day, may day,

(13:06):
may Day. Aviation experts have said it is difficult for
pilots to inadvertently move the fuel switches. The crash on
June twelve occurred moments after the Boeing Dreamliner seven eight
seven took off from Metabad bound for London Gatwick Airport.
The accident killed two hundred and forty one people on
board and another twenty nine on the ground, where the
Boeing Dreamline seven eight seven crashed into a medical college

(13:27):
near the airport.

Speaker 1 (13:29):
Stay with us after the show for Shaun's interview with
Damien Hennessy from Zenith Partners, and then at midday look
Out for the Week Ahead with our resident economist Stephen
Coucoulis and if you haven't signed up for the newsletter.
Yet today is the day Sean.

Speaker 2 (13:42):
Adam full of great yews. It'll help you look smart
when you get to your desk.

Speaker 1 (13:46):
Best way I could use that.

Speaker 2 (13:48):
Go to Fearing Greed dot com au and sign up
for the newsletter.

Speaker 1 (13:52):
Thank you Sean, Thank you Adam. It's Monday, the fourteenth
of July twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast,
join us online on LinkedIn, instagm gram, x, TikTok and Facebook,
and please have a great day.
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