Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
Two new polls so Prime Minister Anthony Aberanesi's popularity is soaring,
just in time for the government to reform. Round table concerts,
faces are reckoning, with a judge poised to hand down
a record fine and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski to meet
with Donald Trump after Trump's meeting with Vladimir Putin ended
(00:27):
without a ceasefire, plus auction clearance rates jump, and why
Paris has seen a surge in luxury handbag heists. It
is Monday, the eighteenth of August twenty twenty five. I'm
Michael Thompson and good morning. Natalie McDonald's.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Good morning, Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
Something for everyone today. We've got everything from handbag heists
through to round tables. Let's get cracking the main story
this morning. Prime Minister Anthony Aberzi is heading into a
really a huge week for the government and is doing
it on a high because tomorrow the much anticipated round
table on the economic reform kicks off in Canberra, just
(01:04):
as two new polls show Labour's support climbing to its
highest level in two years.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
The latest Resolve political monitor in the nine Newspapers shows
Labour's primary vote at thirty seven percent, up two and
a half points from the May election, while the coalition
remains steady at twenty nine percent. On a two party
preferred basis, Labour leads fifty nine forty one, its strongest
results since April twenty three. The result is strong enough
(01:32):
that if an election were to be held today, Labour
would actually increase its majority. Albanesi's net approval rating has
returned to positive territory for the first time since September
twenty three, with forty nine percent satisfied with his performance.
The last time he was around these levels was just
prior to the Voice referendum. His popularity took a hit
(01:55):
after that, but it seems he's now recovered. Opposition leader
Susan Lee remain means more likable than other coalition figures.
In fact, the poll found that she's the most likable
MP on either side, but her net rating is minus nine,
with thirty five percent satisfied and forty four percent dissatisfied.
Still a very big job to do.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
There, yeah, certainly is, and it is interesting that we
have two poles essentially coming out at the same time
and they are telling a very similar story because those
findings are echoed in the news poll results that are
in the Australian Today. The primary vote isn't as high,
but the Prime Minister's approval rating has certainly rebounded again
to levels not seen since before the referendum. Newspot delves
(02:39):
into a few other things that are really interesting, I think,
showing that Australians are more concerned about Donald Trump's tariffs
than the rising military threat from China and the build
up of its presence within the region. And this comes
as Treasurer Jim Chalmers takes a we've got to say
a fairly thinly veiled shot at the US President over
(03:00):
what he described nuisance tariffs.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
He's come out with some great quotes lately. We had
a good day last week when the Reserve Bank cut
and now nuisance tariffs.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
But yes, it's it's like he's channeling Paul Keating. Paul
Kating defined kind of good one liners, right, and Jim
Chalmers has a long long way to go before we
can describe it as Keating esk but he's hitting in
the right direction.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
So when it comes to these nuisance tariffs, he signaled
a fresh crackdown on them, describing these terraffs as a
tax that hurts workers, families and businesses. The Albanese government
has already scrapped five hundred duties on everyday goods such
as fridges and toothbrushes, saving companies, and estimated one hundred
and eighty million dollars in compliance costs by twenty thirty
(03:47):
and streamlining about eight and a half billion dollars in
annual trade. Chalmers told Sky News that many tariffs cost
more to administer than the revenue they generate, and warned
they risk pushing up household While Australia did avoid a
US terrifike earlier this month, experts still face blanket ten
percent charges, Chalmers saying he would seek consensus to abolish
(04:10):
more duties, stressing tariffs quote often do more harm than
good Now.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
Of course, as we mentioned before, this is a big
week for the government and so the timing of these polls,
both newspoll and the result polls coming out. It is
good for the Prime Minister to be heading into the
three day Economic Reform roundtable which starts tomorrow basically on
a high and he's used this to reaffirm Labour's commitment
(04:37):
to lower taxes.
Speaker 2 (04:39):
Speaking in Perth yesterday, the PM said tax reform could
be discussed and pointed to his government's push to deliver
tax cuts, saying we put that to the election and
the Australian people voted for the lower taxes and lower
deficits that we were offering compared with the coalition. Anthony
Albanesi also saying that while the Roundtable would deal with
the economic challenges of boosting productivity quote, we need to
(05:03):
make sure that it operates in the interests of the
people as well, including how to train Australians for the
jobs of the future. He's going to have a lot
to deal with over the next few days. One of
Australia's biggest unions, the Shop Distributive and Allies Employees Association,
is pushing for a mandatory productivity dividend to ensure workers
(05:24):
share in efficiency gains. They want higher pay, extra leave
or shorter hours. It's quite the shopping list.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
It certainly is, and really the PM is going to
have his work cut out for him kind of trying
to wrangle all of this together, as will the Treasurer
after the show today. It is worth the mention of this.
We have fear and Greed Q and A coming up
and every Monday we speak to our resident economist Stephen
could call us for a look at what's coming up
in the weak ahead in the economy. Today we really
do focus on the economic Roundtable and in particular productivity
(05:56):
and how we can solve the productivity crisis in Australia.
And it's basically a one oh one on productivity. What
it is, how it's measured, how it can be improved,
and what needs to come out of this roundtable to
actually see some meaningful improvement. So stick around for that one.
It is coming up after the show. Now moving away
(06:16):
from politics, Natalie, Auction clearance rates have surged following the
Reserve Bank's latest interest rate cut, hitting their highest level
since April last year.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
I think the question is what hasn't moved higher following
the cut last week? It good point it was to
bring up Jim Charms again. It really was a good
day across Australia's capital cities. The combined preliminary auction clearance
rate climbed to seventy five percent from seventy one point
seven percent a week earlier. Melbourne log de clearance rate
of seventy five point five percent, while Sydney came in
(06:49):
at seventy five percent flat. Brisbane's clearance rate brews two
point five percentage points from last week to sixty nine
point six percent, while Adelaide had its third highest clearance
rate of the year at seventy eight percent, and the
Act coming in hot with its clearance rate hitting eighty
point six percent. Economists say the cut, which lifted average
(07:09):
borrowing capacity by up to twenty four thousand dollars for
dual income households, has sparked renewed bier confidence, especially amongst
first home buyers.
Speaker 1 (07:19):
Yeah, we are certainly seeing that, and you mentioned the
fact that just everything was up last week and the
local boss was certainly no exception there because I think
in the end we had five consecutive days where records
were broken on the AX. Is it going to continue?
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Well, it looks like investors are potentially going to take
a breather following that unprecedented run and instead have a
bit of a watch and wait, especially when we have
the Federal Reserves high stakes gathering at Jackson's Hole later
this week. So futures indicating that the SMPASX two hundred
will probably fall at the open.
Speaker 1 (07:57):
Okay, all right, massive starts of the show. We've got
play twenty still to come. Let's take a very quick break.
We'll be back in a moment with the rest of
the day's business news. Natalie Quantas faces are reckoning today
and potentially the biggest penalty in Australian industrial relations history,
(08:19):
with the Federal Court set to hand down a record
fine for illegally sacking one eight hundred workers during the pandemic.
Speaker 2 (08:28):
Justice Michael Lee is expected to impose the biggest fine
in history for breaches of industrial relations laws, potentially up
to one hundred and twenty one million dollars. Even a
reduced figure of forty million dollars would dwarf the usual
one to five million dollar fines that you usually see
around these types of rulings. Now, the ruling comes on
top of one hundred and twenty million dollars in compensation
(08:51):
that's already been awarded to sacked groundworkers five years on
from being told some of them by video link in
the break room they were being outsourced by the National Carrier.
There are some questions though about who gets the money.
The Transport Workers Union, which fought quantus through multiple appeals
(09:11):
all the way to the High Court, argues the full
penalty should be paid directly to the union as deterrence,
though business groups warned that that could embolden unions to
pursue more costly litigation.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
It absolutely feels like a minefield. Like it's not just
the fact that there is this potential fine coming through it.
There is then a dispute over who gets the money.
It feels like a will dispute after someone has passed away.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
So from my understanding, essentially Justice Michael Lee has the
choice to either pay the money to the Commonwealth, to
the unions or to a person. And the concern the
concern is that if the Transport Workers Union gets this
huge sum of money, I mean, what can't you do
with you know, one hundred and twenty one million dollars.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Yeah, and it may well set a precedent then for
other As you say, are the unions considering litigation that
that can take a very long time and cost a
lot of money to go through the courts. Now, billionaire
James Packer, we haven't talked about him much lately. He's
back in the gambling game. His first big foray into
gambling since he sold his Crown Resort Steak to Blackstone
(10:17):
in twenty twenty two for more than three billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Packers Consolidated Press International Holdings has taken major stakes worth
around half a billion dollars in global betting and gaming companies.
That includes around three hundred and ten million in poker
machine and gaming software maker Light and Wonder, which is
in fact planning to move from the NASDAQ to the ASX,
and close to two hundred million dollars in Flutter Entertainment.
(10:43):
That's the bookmaker that owns sports bet Since selling off
his Crown Steak in twenty two, Packers been riding the
tech boom with stocks like Nvidia, Amazon and Meta, but
has now scaled those back.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Property group Mervak is predicting Australia's next housing boom. It's
probably in no real surprise considering the business therein, but
they are pointing to falling interest rates and stronger buyer demand.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Chief executive Campbell Hannon said the developer had seen a
strong pickup in residential activity, with unconditional sales up nearly
forty percent and one point nine billion dollars in pre
sales locked in The company has secured ten thousand new
lots over the past two years and plans major releases
in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, particularly in middle ring areas
(11:29):
benefiting from easing mortgage pressure. Murvak reporting four hundred and
seventy four million dollars in operating earnings, down from five
hundred and fifty two million, but swung back to a
sixty eight million dollar profit after last year's massive eight
hundred and five million dollar loss.
Speaker 1 (11:47):
Now I like this next story, Natalie. Australians are choosing
Asia over the US for travel, with Japan surging to
the third most popular destination. But this is really interesting
because the driver isn't actually politics.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
No, which, as you say, a surprised because you might
think that it would be. But according to the ABS,
more than nine hundred and ten thousand Australians visited Japan
last year, almost double pre pandemic levels and overtaking the US,
which welcomed less than seven hundred and fifty thousand Australian tourists,
well below the one point one million seen in twenty nineteen.
(12:24):
Indonesia retains the top spot no surprise, with one point
seven million visitors, but industry leaders say Vietnam is actually
one to watch as demand accelerates now, the reason being
Japan and Vietnam offer stronger value, helped by favorable exchange
rates and more competitive travel costs at various stages. Last year,
the Australian dollar hit one hundred yen. In contrast, US
(12:47):
travel has been constrained by high accommodation costs and this
has been leaving visitors to opt for shorter trips. With
that in mind, I've.
Speaker 1 (12:56):
Actually put the full table of these of where people
are hitting in today's Fear and Greed newsletter. So if
you haven't subscribed already, head along to Fearangreed dot com
dot au or check the link in today's show notes
popular email addressing and you get it every day by
six am. It's just interesting to see those other countries
and just how much has changed since pre pandemic to
now turning to international news, and the big story really
(13:19):
is a Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelenski meeting today with US
President Donald Trump in Washington, just days after the US
leaders talks with Russia's Vladimir Putin in Alaska ended, not
just without a concrete deal, without any kind of deal
really so.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
At the Alaska summit, Putin demanded Ukraine withdraw from Donetsk
and Luhansk as a condition for ending the war, but
offered Trump a freeze along the remaining frontline. The Guardian
reports Zelenski rejected the demand, according to reports, Also, this
meeting will be Zelenski's first visit to the US since
(13:55):
being publicly berated by Donald Trump, who called him disrespectful
during a meeting in February.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Just quickly, what's emerged has been a major shift in position,
it seems from Donald Trump.
Speaker 2 (14:07):
It really has. Trump wrote on his platform True Social
following Friday summit that a peace agreement would be the
best way to end the horrific war, rather than a ceasefire,
which the president claimed often do not hold up. In
an interview with Fox News following the summit, Trump was
asked what advice he had for the Ukrainian leader, to
which he replied, make a deal, adding Russias a very
(14:31):
big power, and they're not. In response, several European leaders
have signed a joint statement pledging continued support for Ukraine,
seeing the country must have iron cloud security guarantees to
defend its territorial integrity and the borders must not be
changed by force.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
All right, one last one to finish up. Natalie I
mentioned this at the top of the show. Paris has
seen a surge in million euro luxury handbag heists, with
police saying that handbags have actually over taken jewelry as
the prize for organized gangs.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Criminals are targeting brands like Ermez, Chanelle, Dior and Louis
Veraton sort of all the usuals. Louis Veruton's Paris offices
and boutiques have been ram rated multiple times, with losses
topping one million euros each. Y handbags well, unlike jewelry,
luxury bags are actually harder to trace. They're easier to
(15:24):
resell thanks to booming global demand and the second hand
market in countries like Beijing Dubai. London. Experts say a
Chanel bag that cost five thousand juries five years ago
can now sell for ten thousand euros, making them fairly
irresistible to theeves. But if you are jetting off to Europe,
don't panic. Crime overall in Paris has shown a market
(15:47):
drop in the first half of this.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
Year, unless you carrying a Chanel bag, in which case
you have a target on your back.
Speaker 2 (15:54):
Yeah, I tend to leave mine at home.
Speaker 1 (15:55):
Yeah, me too. All right up next is Fearing Greed
Q and A featuring Steven and Can call us all
about productivity today. It is an absolute must listen.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Thank you very much, Natalie, Thank you Michael.
Speaker 1 (16:06):
It is Monday, the eighteenth of August twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online
on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson
and that was Fhear and Greed. Have a great day.