October 15, 2025 • 10 mins
There’s a lot happening in the world of banking right now. Just this week, Commonwealth Bank has held its AGM, where it was revealed Matt Comyn would stay on as CEO for another three years. Bank of Queensland announced a jump in profits. And most significantly, new ANZ boss Nuno Matos revealed his plan to dramatically improve efficiency and profitability at the bank.
Sean Aylmer talks to Matt Wilson, Jarden Australia’s banking analyst, for his take on what to make of the banks.
The information in this episode is general in nature, and doesn’t take into account your own circumstances. You should do your own research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.
Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.au/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Welcome to Fear and Greek Q and A, where we
ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.
I'm Sean Aylmer. There's a lot happening in the world
of banking right now. Just this week, Commonwealth Bank held
its AGM, where it emerged that Matt Common will stay
on as CEO for another three years at least bank
the Bank of Queensland announced the jump in profits, and
most significantly, new A and Z boss Nuno Matos revealed
(00:28):
his plan to dramatically improve efficiency and profitability at the bank.
So what's the all mean for investors? Remember this is
general information only and you should always seek advice tailored
to your circumstances before making investment decisions. Matt Wilson is
jard In Australia's banking analyst. Matt, Welcome to Fear and
Greed Q and A.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Thanks Sean, good to be here.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Let's start with an Z often the fourth of the
Big four, but the new CEO, Nuno Matos, has certainly
made an impact over the past couple of weeks, outlining
a new strategy, you know, suggesting that, I mean he
put hard numbers on some of the metrics, he wants
to achieve and wants to kind of get to best
in class, et cetera. Where does ain Z sit in
(01:09):
all this, I.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Think they sit quite well. It's refreshing that not I
always had the courage to come to Australia and set
absolute targets. It's it's been pretty standard practice in the
UK and Europe roe cost income. It's served the British
banks well coming out of the GFC. It's good to
see it here. He's clearly done his homework and he's
employed a strong cadre of executives to join him on
(01:33):
this journey.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Is ain Z is it now an Australian being. I mean,
we always thought about A and Z as kind of
the most global of the local banks, and it's certainly
had lots years ago India in places like that. But
is it refocused pretty much on Australia.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
It still has that global footprint, particularly in its institutional franchise,
where it has a unique franchise in an Australian context,
providing you know, payments and services and institutional wholesale banking
services around the world for its customers. Obviously, its retail
and commercial business is now Australia only focused. They did
(02:11):
have a foura into Asia and it's probably been left
behind from a focused perspective. In New Zealand, they've got
the leading franchise. Think of Commonwealth Bank here, that's A
and Z in New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
Okay, And in terms of valuation, and I mean so
for listeners, you know, we're going to go through all
four banks, and mad I'm going to ask you each
in terms of valuation, where's AZZI.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Well, it's the cheapest of the four at a pe
of around sort of fourteen times. NAB and Westpac are
on twenty times earning. CBA is nearly thirty times earnings.
Those multiples are very high relative to historical data. You know,
they typically trade in the ten to twelve times earnings perspective.
So banks are very expensive at the moment. Am Z
is the cheapest, so we like to think of it
(02:54):
in a relative sense.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
Let's shift to Westpac, another bank with a new CEO
also plenty of management changes at the top. Has done reasonably.
I mean, all the banks have done well, so it's
hard to complain about if you're a shareholder. What's the
outlook for Westpac?
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Westpac are in an interesting sort of dilemma. They are
doing the right thing by going down the path the
project they call Unite to consolidate you know, layers and
layers of it architecture that's been put on there over
the last twenty five years. There's been a reluctance through
four or five CEOs to make a hard decision with
(03:32):
respect to Saint George and Bank of South Australia. Anthony
Miller has made that tough decision and now he's sort of,
you know, at the beginning of a long journey. I
think it will be to consolidate that complex architecture, but
hopefully at the end of that journey end up in
the right spot. It won't be easy, but they're doing
the right thing.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Is there a risk that that UNITE project means the
rest of the bank has to tread water for two
or three or four or five years.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
That's always a risk with large projects. I think this
is one of the largest banking projects globally, and so
there is a risk that it can take twice as
long and take twice as much and in doing so
starve other areas of the bank. You know, eighty percent
of UNITE fronts into the retail franchise. The institutional franchise
should be free to run, and New Zealand should be
(04:19):
free to run. But a large part of the bank
is internally focused.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Come off bank thirty times earnings keeps giving that common
for another three years at least. Where do we standing
with the come on I mean, can you still buy
come off Bank?
Speaker 2 (04:34):
I wouldn't. Look it's a great bank. I don't think
it's technological advantages are as wide relative to the peers
as CBA makes out. They're very good at marketing themselves.
The real advantage that CBA has its deposit franchise, you know,
close to half it's net interesting income comes from an
endowment of very low cost and in some cases no
(04:55):
cost deposits, and that advantage is start compared to the
other three. Ralph Norris was the CEO who took CBA
down this technology path by trade. He was an old
software programmer, so he had a deep love of it
and he moved CBA first early into that space, which
was real positive. But you know, the gap I don't
(05:16):
think is as wide as they'd like to make out.
Their real advantage's deposits.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Okay, de les is with National Australia Bank haven't heard
as much about NAB, But where's that one up to.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
So NAB's in the fortunate position in that it's not
having to embark on a large sort of project of
self help. You know, they started their next gen project
about fifteen years ago. They're in reasonably good shape at
an IT perspective. NABS challenges them all that. You know,
it's store work business banking franchise that has held NAP
together through a long period of distractions elsewhere is now
(05:49):
under attack from some CBA for a long period of time.
And Mike facey Lyle at CBA has done a great
job leveraging CBA's depositive vantage into NABS domain business banking.
Westpac wants to win market share and then No No
on Monday also indicated that he wants to be bigger
in business banking as well. So NABS finding it hard
(06:10):
defending its turf in the business banking space.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Okay, what about the regionals speak of Queensland came out
yesterday and not a bad result at least it looks
like the share price jumped on the back of it.
It has certainly struggled over the past couple of years
from management down. Where do you put the regionals? Bendigo
and Adelaide is another one.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Yeah, we like Bendigar. I think Bennie Goes an interesting franchise.
It's customers love it. Marty Baker, the former CEO, did
a very good job assembling a bunch of interesting tech
options there with up and Timely. Indeed, Timely is the
software that runs CBA's digital home loan product. Not many
people know that, and CBA would admit to it, but
that's true. So benny Goes quite unique and doing quite well,
(06:53):
and we've had a change of CEO there, and so
Richard's got a platform to continue to grow that franchise strongly.
Bank of Queen's Land sort of diametrically applosed to CBA
from a funding perspective. It has no real low cost
deposits at all, and it's finding it very hard to grow.
Hence it's it's home loan book who's shrinking. They're trying
to pivot out of home loans into business banking again
(07:15):
threat to NAB, but you need bankers and you need capability,
and they're also looking to sell half their their equipment
finance business and take advantage of you know, what we
think is a bubble in private credit and an appetite
for yield out there. So Banker Queensland's in a very
challenging position. BENDI goes in a very strong position.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Okay, So let's bring this back to what it means
for us as customers. Where would the competition be in
the next six twelve months. Is in mortgages? Is it
in business? Where do you think that we as consumers
might benefit most.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
I think consumers win across the broad because banks are
back to focusing on delivering service across retail banking, which
is deposits and home loans, and then into the business
banking space, expanding into agri and what have you. And
when you have four major banks focused on that, two
regionals and then you can include Judo in that equation,
(08:10):
you know, that's a good outcome for consumers. There should
be some good deals out there, some good attention from
bankers on customers, because the banks have been guilty of,
you know, closing branches, removing bankers, forcing us into call centers,
et cetera. Now we should be looking forward to to
having much better service because the banks that supply better
service best products and best price are going to be
(08:32):
the ones that win market share.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
And as an investor, which of those six let's put
ben again Bank of Queens down with the big four.
Which of those six do you favor? Which ones do
you not favor? Of course, on the back of valuations
where they're training today.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, Amzed's at the top of our list. We like
no We like his fresh approach to Australia and we
think that you know, the cost out opportunity will be
easy for him over twenty six twenty seven. The revenue
opportunity will be much harder, but that comes in twenty eight,
twenty nine and thirty. The other banks won't stand still.
But I think No No starts from a very strong position.
He'd done it in Europe, he's done it in Mexico,
(09:08):
and he's a retail and business banker by trade. And
then it's hard to split Westpac and NAB. They're both
on twenty times earnings. Westpac obviously confronting a pretty large
project with a lot of execution risk. NAB doesn't have that.
But NAB's being attacked by WESTPACCBA and a in Z
in its core franchise, and then CBA last look, there's
(09:28):
nothing wrong with the bank other than its valuation. It's
a very good bank. It's just a very lofty valuation
which I think will unravel through time.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Matt, thanks for talking to Fear and Greed.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
No, Larry's pleasure to be here.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
Sean. That was Matt Wilson, banking analyst at Jardin. Remember
this is general information only, and if you're going to invest,
to get professional advice tailored to your circumstances before making decisions.
If you've got something you'd like to know, then send
through your question on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, or at Fearinggreed
dot com dot au. I'm Sean Almer and this is
Fear and Greed. You and Day
Welcome to Fear and Greek Q and A, where we
ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more.
I'm Sean Aylmer. There's a lot happening in the world
of banking right now. Just this week, Commonwealth Bank held
its AGM, where it emerged that Matt Common will stay
on as CEO for another three years at least bank
the Bank of Queensland announced the jump in profits, and
most significantly, new A and Z boss Nuno Matos revealed
(00:28):
his plan to dramatically improve efficiency and profitability at the bank.
So what's the all mean for investors? Remember this is
general information only and you should always seek advice tailored
to your circumstances before making investment decisions. Matt Wilson is
jard In Australia's banking analyst. Matt, Welcome to Fear and
Greed Q and A.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Thanks Sean, good to be here.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Let's start with an Z often the fourth of the
Big four, but the new CEO, Nuno Matos, has certainly
made an impact over the past couple of weeks, outlining
a new strategy, you know, suggesting that, I mean he
put hard numbers on some of the metrics, he wants
to achieve and wants to kind of get to best
in class, et cetera. Where does ain Z sit in
(01:09):
all this, I.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
Think they sit quite well. It's refreshing that not I
always had the courage to come to Australia and set
absolute targets. It's it's been pretty standard practice in the
UK and Europe roe cost income. It's served the British
banks well coming out of the GFC. It's good to
see it here. He's clearly done his homework and he's
employed a strong cadre of executives to join him on
(01:33):
this journey.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
Is ain Z is it now an Australian being. I mean,
we always thought about A and Z as kind of
the most global of the local banks, and it's certainly
had lots years ago India in places like that. But
is it refocused pretty much on Australia.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
It still has that global footprint, particularly in its institutional franchise,
where it has a unique franchise in an Australian context,
providing you know, payments and services and institutional wholesale banking
services around the world for its customers. Obviously, its retail
and commercial business is now Australia only focused. They did
(02:11):
have a foura into Asia and it's probably been left
behind from a focused perspective. In New Zealand, they've got
the leading franchise. Think of Commonwealth Bank here, that's A
and Z in New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
Okay, And in terms of valuation, and I mean so
for listeners, you know, we're going to go through all
four banks, and mad I'm going to ask you each
in terms of valuation, where's AZZI.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
Well, it's the cheapest of the four at a pe
of around sort of fourteen times. NAB and Westpac are
on twenty times earning. CBA is nearly thirty times earnings.
Those multiples are very high relative to historical data. You know,
they typically trade in the ten to twelve times earnings perspective.
So banks are very expensive at the moment. Am Z
is the cheapest, so we like to think of it
(02:54):
in a relative sense.
Speaker 1 (02:55):
Let's shift to Westpac, another bank with a new CEO
also plenty of management changes at the top. Has done reasonably.
I mean, all the banks have done well, so it's
hard to complain about if you're a shareholder. What's the
outlook for Westpac?
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Westpac are in an interesting sort of dilemma. They are
doing the right thing by going down the path the
project they call Unite to consolidate you know, layers and
layers of it architecture that's been put on there over
the last twenty five years. There's been a reluctance through
four or five CEOs to make a hard decision with
(03:32):
respect to Saint George and Bank of South Australia. Anthony
Miller has made that tough decision and now he's sort of,
you know, at the beginning of a long journey. I
think it will be to consolidate that complex architecture, but
hopefully at the end of that journey end up in
the right spot. It won't be easy, but they're doing
the right thing.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Is there a risk that that UNITE project means the
rest of the bank has to tread water for two
or three or four or five years.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
That's always a risk with large projects. I think this
is one of the largest banking projects globally, and so
there is a risk that it can take twice as
long and take twice as much and in doing so
starve other areas of the bank. You know, eighty percent
of UNITE fronts into the retail franchise. The institutional franchise
should be free to run, and New Zealand should be
(04:19):
free to run. But a large part of the bank
is internally focused.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
Come off bank thirty times earnings keeps giving that common
for another three years at least. Where do we standing
with the come on I mean, can you still buy
come off Bank?
Speaker 2 (04:34):
I wouldn't. Look it's a great bank. I don't think
it's technological advantages are as wide relative to the peers
as CBA makes out. They're very good at marketing themselves.
The real advantage that CBA has its deposit franchise, you know,
close to half it's net interesting income comes from an
endowment of very low cost and in some cases no
(04:55):
cost deposits, and that advantage is start compared to the
other three. Ralph Norris was the CEO who took CBA
down this technology path by trade. He was an old
software programmer, so he had a deep love of it
and he moved CBA first early into that space, which
was real positive. But you know, the gap I don't
(05:16):
think is as wide as they'd like to make out.
Their real advantage's deposits.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Okay, de les is with National Australia Bank haven't heard
as much about NAB, But where's that one up to.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
So NAB's in the fortunate position in that it's not
having to embark on a large sort of project of
self help. You know, they started their next gen project
about fifteen years ago. They're in reasonably good shape at
an IT perspective. NABS challenges them all that. You know,
it's store work business banking franchise that has held NAP
together through a long period of distractions elsewhere is now
(05:49):
under attack from some CBA for a long period of time.
And Mike facey Lyle at CBA has done a great
job leveraging CBA's depositive vantage into NABS domain business banking.
Westpac wants to win market share and then No No
on Monday also indicated that he wants to be bigger
in business banking as well. So NABS finding it hard
(06:10):
defending its turf in the business banking space.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Okay, what about the regionals speak of Queensland came out
yesterday and not a bad result at least it looks
like the share price jumped on the back of it.
It has certainly struggled over the past couple of years
from management down. Where do you put the regionals? Bendigo
and Adelaide is another one.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Yeah, we like Bendigar. I think Bennie Goes an interesting franchise.
It's customers love it. Marty Baker, the former CEO, did
a very good job assembling a bunch of interesting tech
options there with up and Timely. Indeed, Timely is the
software that runs CBA's digital home loan product. Not many
people know that, and CBA would admit to it, but
that's true. So benny Goes quite unique and doing quite well,
(06:53):
and we've had a change of CEO there, and so
Richard's got a platform to continue to grow that franchise strongly.
Bank of Queen's Land sort of diametrically applosed to CBA
from a funding perspective. It has no real low cost
deposits at all, and it's finding it very hard to grow.
Hence it's it's home loan book who's shrinking. They're trying
to pivot out of home loans into business banking again
(07:15):
threat to NAB, but you need bankers and you need capability,
and they're also looking to sell half their their equipment
finance business and take advantage of you know, what we
think is a bubble in private credit and an appetite
for yield out there. So Banker Queensland's in a very
challenging position. BENDI goes in a very strong position.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Okay, So let's bring this back to what it means
for us as customers. Where would the competition be in
the next six twelve months. Is in mortgages? Is it
in business? Where do you think that we as consumers
might benefit most.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
I think consumers win across the broad because banks are
back to focusing on delivering service across retail banking, which
is deposits and home loans, and then into the business
banking space, expanding into agri and what have you. And
when you have four major banks focused on that, two
regionals and then you can include Judo in that equation,
(08:10):
you know, that's a good outcome for consumers. There should
be some good deals out there, some good attention from
bankers on customers, because the banks have been guilty of,
you know, closing branches, removing bankers, forcing us into call centers,
et cetera. Now we should be looking forward to to
having much better service because the banks that supply better
service best products and best price are going to be
(08:32):
the ones that win market share.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
And as an investor, which of those six let's put
ben again Bank of Queens down with the big four.
Which of those six do you favor? Which ones do
you not favor? Of course, on the back of valuations
where they're training today.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, Amzed's at the top of our list. We like
no We like his fresh approach to Australia and we
think that you know, the cost out opportunity will be
easy for him over twenty six twenty seven. The revenue
opportunity will be much harder, but that comes in twenty eight,
twenty nine and thirty. The other banks won't stand still.
But I think No No starts from a very strong position.
He'd done it in Europe, he's done it in Mexico,
(09:08):
and he's a retail and business banker by trade. And
then it's hard to split Westpac and NAB. They're both
on twenty times earnings. Westpac obviously confronting a pretty large
project with a lot of execution risk. NAB doesn't have that.
But NAB's being attacked by WESTPACCBA and a in Z
in its core franchise, and then CBA last look, there's
(09:28):
nothing wrong with the bank other than its valuation. It's
a very good bank. It's just a very lofty valuation
which I think will unravel through time.
Speaker 1 (09:36):
Matt, thanks for talking to Fear and Greed.
Speaker 2 (09:38):
No, Larry's pleasure to be here.
Speaker 1 (09:39):
Sean. That was Matt Wilson, banking analyst at Jardin. Remember
this is general information only, and if you're going to invest,
to get professional advice tailored to your circumstances before making decisions.
If you've got something you'd like to know, then send
through your question on LinkedIn, Instagram, Facebook, or at Fearinggreed
dot com dot au. I'm Sean Almer and this is
Fear and Greed. You and Day
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