Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The Reserve Bank says there are no more interest rate
cuts in the foreseeable future, the parliamentary expenses scandal widens,
and Donald Trump makes it very expensive for families to
visit the Grand Canyon. Plus global online forum Reddit is
preparing to mount a legal challenge to the Australian government's
world first social media ban for under sixteen year olds,
(00:29):
and paramount takes on Netflix in a fight for Warner Brothers.
It is Wednesday, the tenth of December twenty twenty five.
Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Morning. A story just for you today, Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
That would be the Grand Canyon one.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
We'll get to it. We'll get to it.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
We will. Indeed the main story this morning, Sean. The
Reserve Bank does not expect any more interest rate cuts
in the foreseeable future and has warned that inflation risks
are rising. The comments came after the Central Bank left
the official cash rate at three point six percent yesterday,
as was widely expected.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
The bank said underlying inflation had risen recently, and while
some of the increase was driven by temporary factors. There
has also been a broader lift in prices. Risks to
inflation have tilted to the upside, the bank said, and
the persistence of price pressures will take some time to assess. Initially,
the Central Bank didn't sound quite as worried about inflation
(01:24):
as some thought, or in economic speak, was less hawkish
than some expected than we had Michelle Bullocks press conference,
and that turned around a bit. According to the Reserve Bank,
private demand is being supported by rising households spending and investment.
Housing activity and prices continue to increase while credit remains
readily available. The economy, particularly the private sector, has picked
(01:48):
up more than expected and if that continues, it will
add to inflation pressures. It was the final Reserve Bank
Board meeting of the year. Now the bank cut rates
in February, May and August this year. If the cycle
is over, as Michelle Bullock basically said that yesterday, it
will be the narrowest least number of rate cuts in
(02:10):
terms of a rate reduction cycle since the deregulation of
the Australian economy in the nineteen eighties.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
Really, God, it didn't last long.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Then, No, it did not last long, and all this
two thirty pm announcement yesterday sent bond yield slightly lower,
though markets still have priced in a height next year.
The Aussie dollar slipped, while the sheer market dropped back
as well.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Now Straight after the announcement, Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers was
very quick to emphasize that some of the pickup in
inflation reflected temporary factors.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
He also liked the Central Bank comments that there was
improvement in private sector spending and investing. This whole argument
that the public sector is holding up the economy, well,
Michelle Bullock basically said it's the private sector that's pushing
to that now, and Jim Chalmers loved that one. The
Treasurer said while millions of Australians would have preferred a
rate cut, the RBA's decision was not unexpected.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
Now, of course you watch the press conference with Michelle
Bullock like a hawk afterwards, looking for clues anything that
might kind of give people a bit of hope either way.
Anything there any hints about rates, what is going to happen,
what the next move is actually going to be.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, yes, and if you've got a mortgage, you're not
going to like this one. If you're an investor, you
might like it very much. Bullocks at the board sees
no immediate need for additional rate cuts. She then went
on to say that you know in the foreseeable future
that ain't going to happen. Basically in the back on
the pick up in private demand, and I'll quote her,
(03:41):
the question is is it just an extended hold from
here or is it the possibility of a rate rise.
I couldn't put a probability on those, but I think
they're the two things that the Board will be looking
closely at coming into the new year.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
That's a long way from we don't rule anything in
or rule anything out. That's pretty much she's just ruling.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Cuts entirely totally. She said Februar's inflation data is the
key input into the next policy decision, adding that the
bank remained some way from its target of getting inflation
into two and a half percent.
Speaker 1 (04:12):
I think a lot more came out of that meeting
than I was expecting, perhaps more definite than I was.
I was expecting it to be very much. I'll just
wait and see. Nothing ruled in, nothing ruled out. We
just need more data. That does sound clearer.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
She was definitely more specific in the press conference than
the statement afterwards. In fact, the statement afterwards some people thought, oh,
you know, it's not like there're a little bit sort
of unsure what's going to happen next. But afterwards she
just said no rate cuts in the foreseeable future.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Yeah, all right, ASX How did it react? When did
it finish up?
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Yesterday? It fell a bit. It was actually a pretty
poor last hour when the Michelle Bullocks comments were from
the press conference filtered through to the market. It finished
down nearly half percent to eighty five hundred and eighty
six points. Wasn't like a precipitous fall, but it was
very widespread. So eleven of the eleven of the eleven
sub indicies ended lower. Energy, healthcare, and tech stocks did worse.
Speaker 1 (05:09):
Precipitous.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
That's good word.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
It's a great word. Very dare I say it? It's
a very pompous word.
Speaker 2 (05:17):
It is a pompous word. And I did have to
use auto correct to spell it correctly.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
You didn't need to admit that. Sean not an audio medium.
No one needs to know how you spell it. Global markets,
what's going on there?
Speaker 2 (05:31):
Well? Cop has hit an all time high, and expectations
of stronger Chinese demand. But spare a thought for US
Federal Reserve Chair jer Own Powell, who'll probably announce an
interest rate cut in the next couple of days. Tonight,
the FED Board begins its two day meeting amid a
slowing employment market, rising inflation, a president who openly berates him,
(05:52):
and a split between board members about whether rates should
go up or down. Now we'll find out tomorrow morning
after the show's released about whether there's a rate cut
or not.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
But don't forget as well. The other thing to add
into that, to make it even harder, is that they
don't have all the data that they would love.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
No, that's true, Yes, because of the shut down.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Yeah, yep, so kind of doing it with kind of
a blindfold on one hand, tied behind your back. I
suppose one of those fair the way, it's not an
easy job.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
It's not okay.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
We'll be back in a moment with the rest of
the day's business news, Sean. The parliamentary expenses scandal is
growing and engulfing more parliamentarians from both sides of politics.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Yes. So, the latest revelation is that Communications Minister Anika Wells,
when Sports Minister left a comcar limousine waiting for nearly
ten hours while she attended the twenty twenty two National
Rugby League and National Rugby League Women's Grand Finals that
would have cost the taxpayers more than twelve hundred dollars,
accord to the SMH. She also charged taxpayers nearly one
thousand dollars for a comcar to wait for her while
(07:04):
she was at the Australian Open Tennis Expenses data reveals
tradements that Don Farrell used his entitlements hundreds of times
to fly his family around the country since Labor was
elected in twenty twenty two. The AFR is reporting Attorney
General Michelle Roland bill taxpayers more than twenty thousand dollars
for her family to travel to Western Australia. Now. Late
last night, Annika Wells referred her travel spending to an
(07:27):
audit by the Parliamentary Expenses Watchdog. Clearly she is feeling
the pressure on that one. Some of these travel expeditions
may not actually be outside the rules, but as David Pocock,
the Independent Senator from the Act said, it's sort of
(07:47):
been coming down to the leader of the law versus
community expectations and this is where they're running foul of it.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
Basically, we need to introduce a pub test segment on
this show where every day we put some new before
the pub test.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Yeah. I like it.
Speaker 1 (08:03):
I'm tipping we will not let anything past the pub test.
I feel like we are very good deciders of these.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
Things, Sean. Maybe now.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Defense Minister Richard Miles says the Osman talks with Foreign
Minister Pennywong, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense
Secretary Pete Hegsith have led to an agreement for infrastructure
investment to support more US forces at Australian bases.
Speaker 2 (08:26):
Parties agreed to see more prepositioning of significant American assets
in Australia, including Osprey tilt Rota aircraft, Osprey or Osprey Ospray. Yeah,
Ospray Osprey tilt Writer aircraft. They're very cool in greater
collaboration and guided weapons and hypersonic cruise missiles also very cool.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
I like to see a bit of enthusiasm for aircraft
from you, Sean.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
This is good. After the meeting, Rubia said building diversity
into critical mineral supply chains has become the central way
that Australia can work with the US. It's assuming we
want to do that. At a press conference after the meeting,
Miles insisted that the government has been transparent about the
progress of orcas he avoided questions about what had changed
after the Pentagon review, which we just got only in
(09:10):
recent weeks. He said, Australia's obligation under the pact are
now really clear. I thought they had have been really
clear beforehand, and the next billion dollar payment US billion
dollars about one and a half billion Aussie will be
made before the end of the year.
Speaker 1 (09:23):
Global online forum Reddit is preparing to mount a legal
challenge to the Australian government's world first social media ban
for under sixteen year olds sure Is.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
It comes as the ban commences today and is a
direct threat by a major tech company to one of
PM Anthony Albanez's headline policies. The tech platform has enlisted
a top barrister in a local law firm. According to
the AFR, any challenge is expected to be through the
High Court, likely to focus on teenage's implied riter freedom
of political communication. It would be the second High Court challenge,
(09:53):
the first, led by New South Wales Libertarian Party MLC.
John Ruddick is fronted by two fifteen year olds file
two weeks ago, based on the same argument beinging teenager's
freedom of political communication. There are currently ten social media
platforms included in the new law Facebook, Instagram, threads, TikTok, snapchat, Twitch, geck,
x YouTube, Reddit, good luck to all the parents out
(10:13):
there from this morning.
Speaker 1 (10:15):
Absolutely, of any social media platform to challenge this, I
would not have picked Reddit as the one. It would
have been X with Elon Musk and others. But no,
this is interesting. You are speaking today Fear and grad
Q and A. After the show, you're speaking with Whipper,
Michael Whipfley, who is a radio presenter on Nova, which
is the station that we record this podcast in, and
(10:37):
he's also one of the organizers of the thirty six
Months campaign. So it was really the guy behind this move.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Yeah, it's a fantastic chat with Whipper because he has
driven He has driven it from the get go, both
parties have come in behind it and he should be
very proud of what he's done.
Speaker 1 (10:56):
Now the Federal National Party is just openly hammering former
leader Barnaby Joyce now who on Monday said he was
joining One Nation, saying the decision was about personal ambition,
not his electorate. Yes and everyone, it's just left, right
and center. They are firing so.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Deputy NATS leader Kevin Hogan said Joyce's decision was very
disappointing and hurtful. Other former leaders have been able to
remain on the backbench. Mar McCormack, of course did that.
Leader David Little Proud previously to the defection, was simply
about Joyce's personal ambition. Independence jumped in as well. Teal
Monique Ryan called Joyce a shameless popularist, adding that his
(11:36):
shift will actually have a little impact in Australia. For
his part, Joyce said he'd maintain a laser like focus
for his electorate of New England until the next election.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
And did you see that because he has now joined
One Nation, it gives one Nation enough members to have
official party status and as a result, there is also
now an increase in pay for Paul enhance and as
the leader it's about another one hundred thousand dollars per year.
Oh wow, Yeah, they wouldn't get that until until he
officially moves over. Yeah, until it's I don't know what's
(12:08):
required to officially become a member of a party. I
imagine it's just a bit of paperwork, but good luck
getting a processed at this time. A year now, BHP
has done a three billion dollar deal for private equity
group Blackrock to take a stake in its West Australian
power network. The big Australian pushes to monetize its infrastructure assets.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
This is interesting, yeah, really interesting. Western Australia Iron Ore's
inland network powers BHP in the Pilbra. Now that's obviously
where we dig up all the iron or it's where
BHP gets most of its revenue from. Under the deal
announced yesterday, BHP's ownership will be split. Its ownership of
this inland network. It owns eighty five percent of it.
That'll be split between BHP, which like fifty one percent Blackrock,
(12:52):
which will have twenty nine percent. BHP obviously gets the money,
Blackrock will get a tariff linked to its share of
power flowing through the infrastructure over twenty five years. It
includes a power station, four hundred klometers of transmission and
distribution lines, substations, control systems. It's just really interesting how
BHP can manufacture that might be being a bit cruel,
(13:14):
but create a value from these transmission networks.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
Yeah, it is turning to international news now sean. A
Game of Throne style fight is on for Warner Brothers Discovery,
with media giant Paramount Skydance bidding one hundred and eight
billion dollars for the group, just two days after Netflix
lobbed a bid that was a bit less. That was
(13:39):
that seventy two billion US. These are US dollars, are
US dollars, and so Netflix bid seventy two billion. Paramounts
come in with a one hundred and eight billion dollar bid.
US President Donald Trump has inferred that it's really up
to him. He'll be the kingmaker here.
Speaker 2 (13:56):
He has inferred. Now, first off, the bid by Netflix
is the fewer acids in the bid by Paramount, So
there's that's why there's such a discrimage in price. And
Netflix wants the studios and back catalogs Harry product Game
of Thrones and plans to spin off cable channel channels
such as CNN and Discovery. Paramount wants the lot right.
So which of it provides better outcome for shareholders is
(14:17):
very much up for interpretation. Already this week, after Netflix
made its announcement, but before Paramount made its announcement, Trump
came and said he's worried about competition issues. If Netflix
took over, then all of a sudden paramount which of
course aims Network teen here in Australia' CBS in the
US makes a hostile bid backed by Trump ally Larry
(14:41):
Ellison of Oracle Fame also involved Trump's son in law,
Jaron Krishna, and a Golf Nation Sovereign Wealth Fund. You
can kind of see where it's going.
Speaker 1 (14:55):
Oh, that's getting messy. It's it's but there's.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
A huge sell, huge and an incredible power. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (15:03):
Yeah, it is quite an extraordinary story.
Speaker 2 (15:05):
And we shouldn't Yeah, we shouldn't pre judge it. But
oh wow, pre.
Speaker 1 (15:10):
Judging is one of my favorite things to do. Please
don't take that away from me. Donald Trump is not
just putting US businesses first. He's also favoring US US
tourists as well, introducing a one hundred and fifty dollars
charge per person for foreigners, including Australians that must be
pointed out visiting popular US national parks like the Grand Canyon, Yosemite, Yellowstone,
(15:35):
take your pick.
Speaker 2 (15:36):
And that's on top of the existing entrance fees. So
it's trump'signed an executive boarder said national parks will be
about America first. The extra one hundred US dollars, so
it's called one hundred and fifty zie non resident fee
applies to eleven of the most popular parks take effect
from January one. So family of four yep from the
(15:57):
southern suburbs of Sydney. I'm listening to the Grand Canyon.
Having spent thousands of dollars in airfare's kahara and combination
high arrested charges as well, will now have to pay
what is it four times one fifty six hundred plus
fifty bus entry fees six hundred and fifty dollars to
(16:17):
see the Grand Canyon. My oh face.
Speaker 1 (16:24):
This hypothetical family traveling in May.
Speaker 2 (16:27):
Let's call them the Thompson's. Yeah, just pick a name
at random.
Speaker 1 (16:32):
This is a real shock, Sean. This is not good
news and I did not want to hear this today,
So thank you for ruining my day. But we're still
going to go and we're still going to have a glorious.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
Time in May.
Speaker 1 (16:43):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (16:43):
Fantastic top it.
Speaker 1 (16:44):
In the calendar. Up next is Fear and Greed Q
and A with Michael Whipley, better known as Whipper Architect
and architect is one of a few, but really one
of the driving forces behind the social media ban. It's
a great chat coming up next to the Fear and
Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot
com todau, which is where you sign up for our
free daily newsletter. I'll put a link in the show
notes as well. Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It's Wednesday,
(17:05):
the tenth of December twenty twenty five. Make sure you're
following the podcast and join us online as well. Head
to LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson.
That was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.