Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use. Today.
The Reserve Bank delivers a much awaited interest rate to cut,
the third so far this year. The local share market
hits a new all time high, and Donald Trump extends
a tariff truce with China. Plus Star Entertainment strikes a deal,
and airlines cash in on a big shift in how
we travel. Spoiler alert, it's not the cheap seats. It
(00:28):
is Wednesday, the thirteenth of August twenty twenty five. Are
Michael Thompson and good morning, Natalie McDonald. Good morning Michael,
day two on the job in the chair while Sean
Aylmer is just cruising around Europe. You've picked a fine
time to join us. There is a lot going on
right and now.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
But the question I want answered is is Sean still listening?
But do you think he's checking in?
Speaker 1 (00:49):
You know what I reckon? He is, so hi, Sean,
hope you're enjoying it. And Natalie's doing a cracker of
a job. Now the main story this morning, there's only
one big story in town. Reserve Bank of Australia delivered
a much anticipated rate cut yesterday, voting unanimously to slash
the official cash rate by twenty five basis points to
three point six percent. Now.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
This cut is the third of the cycle, following cuts
in February and May the Central Bank upsetting expectations with
its decision to hold in the month of July. However,
in a statement, the Central Bank said the Board remains
cautious to global developments as well as those here at home,
calling yesterday's twenty five basis point cut appropriate. Bank Governor
(01:31):
Michelle Bullet warning, however, not to expect rates to go
too low. She opened the press conference with the explanation
that because we didn't take rates as high as some
other countries, it may be that we don't need to
reduce rates as much either. That's a quote from that conference.
She did say, though, that the RBA's economic forecasts are
based on a couple more rate cuts, again a quote,
(01:54):
but wouldn't be led on whether that would be at
consecutive meetings.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
I think these press conferences that the Reserve Bank governor
has after the board meeting, they are so valuable for
providing a lot of extra insight into the thinking of
the board. And one of the things that the Governor
was at pains to point out yesterday was really a
warning about productivity.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
She was very much attempted to drawn in on that
and wouldn't really give anything away ahead of our next
week's productivity commission. But overall on productivity, that warning being
that it is still far too low. The Reserve Bank
has downgraded its outlook on that front, forecasting productivity growth
of zero point seven percent per year over the medium term,
(02:37):
down from previous forecasts of one percent. It's a very
timely warning, as we say, coming just a week before
the federal government's round table looking to address this very issue.
But overall, when it comes to government reaction, Treasury Jen
Charmers hailed the move by the Central Bank is a
very welcome relief for Australians, adding and that's why today
is a good day, which I thought was pretty cute,
(03:01):
nice touch, I think exactly. Attention though, now turning to
the wage price index coming out today and we've also
got jobs data tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Just to clarify, did you just refer to Treasurer Jim
Chalmers as being that was quite cute what he said? Delete? Okay, now,
very good time to mention the fear and greed Q
and A that comes up after the show you're speaking
today with Billinda Allen from Commonwealth Bank Senior Economists. There
just great insight into kind of what this means, and
(03:31):
the question that you are asking is how many more
rate cuts are we going to get? There was, as
we mentioned so much in the announcement and Reserve Bank
Governor Michelle Bullock's press conference afterwards. One of my favorite
parts was the almost veiled warning to US President Donald
Trump about the pressure that is on the US Federal
Reserve to slash rates. And maybe I'm reading too much
(03:52):
into this, but she did say a direct quote, if
the Fed does lower interest rates too quickly and it
does result in inflation rising, then that potentially does have
implications for the world economy. That seems pretty clear to me.
You mentioned productivity, right, and plenty of challenges still for
the economy in terms of productivity in the short term.
(04:14):
Though the right cut yesterday is good news for homeowners.
Anyone with a mortgage is set to benefit.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
They are CBA was the first cab off the ranks,
acting to match the Reserve Bank and lower interest rates
by zero point two five percent. Big four peers all
following in suit. How much homeowners now save will depend,
of course on how much your home loan is. Repayments
on a seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars mortgage will
be around one hundred and thirteen dollars less per month,
or one hundred and fifty dollars lower for a million
(04:43):
dollar mortgage.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
And the other big response was from the local market. Yesterday,
the share market.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
Just took off exactly like I say, today was a
very good day.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Thank you, Jim Chalmers.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
Thank you. The SMVASX two hundred index climb zo point
four percent to eighty eight hundred and eighty as it
hit an intra day high of eighty eight hundred and
eighty five following the Central Bank's decision. It marks the
highest close on records, surpassing eight hundred and forty eight
set last week. So many eights, financials and retailers all
rallied adjacent to the RBA decision. Materials also seeing gains. Industrials, however,
(05:19):
the weaker sector in what was overall and out performance.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
Clearly there's a bit of optimism out there in the
market based on those results yesterday. It's not just traders
and it's not just mortgage holders though that are feeling
more optimistic at the moment, Natalie, because Australian business confidence
rose to a three year high in July according to
an ab survey.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
That survey, as you say, from National Australia Bank, showed
it's index of business confidence climbed to plus seven in July.
That's up from plus five in June, boiled by strength
in services and construction. This is the highest reading since
August twenty twenty two, suggesting that global worries haven't really
influenced local hiring and investment decisions, or at least just yet,
(05:59):
although costs are adding some pressures.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Okay, we have still got a lot to get to
before we go to the break, though, it is time
for business by numbers. This is the top three numbers
to know for the week, brought to you by zero
zero dot com slash AU. The first number to know
this week is obviously going to be three point six
percent the official cash rate after the Reserve Bank Board
cut rates yesterday afternoon eight thousand, eight hundred and eighty
(06:25):
one points. You mentioned this one, Natalie, the closing high
the ASX hit after the RBA announcement, and then my
favorite number really for the week, twenty percent which is
how much lithium minor pilber minerals. The share price jumped
in just one day after a Chinese mind was shut
down for three months, and that was really reflected right
(06:45):
across the sector with all the lithium miners jumping. Those
are the top three numbers you need to know for
the week, brought to you by Zero. We'll be back
in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Natalie Star Entertainment has struck a fifty three million dollar
deal to sell its fifty percent steak in Brisbane's Queen's
(07:07):
Warf casino.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
The struggling casino operator reaching an agreement with its Hong
Kong based business partners after missing a key deadline two
weeks ago and following months of tense negotiations. The move
helps Star reduced at and avoid at least two hundred
and twelve million dollars in upcoming equity contributions to the project.
Star offloading other assets as well, including a Brisbane hotel
(07:30):
and car parks. Investors responding to the news well shares
ending the day up nearly twenty four percent, which sounds great,
sounds wonderful, but what was the actual share price, Yeah,
eleven cents.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Eleven cents, which is just when you consider the fact
that Star what four or five years ago was about
four dollars or so, to now be kind of in
that nine to eleven cent range, it is quite an
extraordinary run that company has had, and has had more
than its fair share of trouble in recent weeks and
months now. A couple of key results that I worth
(08:03):
have mentioned today. SGH, which is formally Seven Group Holdings,
kind of failed to give investors what they wanted this
reporting season, shares slumping more than eight percent yesterday, despite
delivering a rise in full the year earnings.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
The industrial's conglomerate, led by the billionaires Stokes family, forecast
high single digit earnings growth for that current period, but yeah,
missing the mark when it comes to what investors wanted
to see from it.
Speaker 1 (08:27):
Yeah. Now the other one, and I alluded to this
one earlier. Life three sixty is just a really interesting company.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
It is, so let me give you the details. So
Life through sixty, if you're not familiar with it, is
a family tracking app. It's California based ASX listed, It's
got eighty eight million users. It's said that rising anxiety
among parents about their children's safety is driving record revenue growth.
It's up thirty four percent for the half to three
(08:57):
hundred and thirty six point two million dollars, climbing seven
point eight percent on the AESX.
Speaker 1 (09:03):
Yesterday you mentioned praying on anxiety. They really lean into
that this company does and their their ad campaign. I
don't know whether you've seen it come up. There is
a video and a song and it is so well produced.
But this song is called I Think of You Dying,
and it is about It is about I kid you,
not a mum with a kind of teenage kids, and
(09:26):
talking about all of the kind of exotic ways and
things that could happen to them while they're out of home.
So it really plays to that. It's tongue in cheek,
but clearly they have identified the market here and have
gone after it in a big way and it is
paying off for the company.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
That is, My catastrophizing brain does not need that it's
here in my life.
Speaker 1 (09:46):
No, I don't think any parents do. Now. Taxpayer funded
nbn CO is turning a corner, trimming losses to just
under one billion dollars thanks to a one point one
to nine billion dollar boost from the Albanese government to
upgrade its network.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Revenue grew four percent to five point seven billion dollars
and earnings rows eight percent to four point two billion,
despite rising debt. Chief executive Elie Sweeney says the upgrading
of its network is on track, with nearly two point
seven million homes and businesses now connected to fire but
that's up twenty four percent this year. Mbnco is also
set to replace its lower satellite service with a faster
(10:21):
low Earth orbit option from Amazon's Project Kaiper next GM
Michael I Low you love this story. The upgrades have
received criticism, however, from those who say that the costly
scheme overlaps with existing commercial networks in areas like Canberra.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
I love the fact that we've only been working together
for a couple of days and you could still see
the excitement in my eyes as soon as you mentioned
low Earth orbit satellites. Now another area that I'm fascinated
by aviation right. Airlines are cashing in on a big
shift in how we travel, as demand for business first
and premium economy, all those three classes of tickets demands
(11:00):
just soaring.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
This trend is fascinating to me. So flight Center saw
an eighteen percent lift in international premium class bookings last
year versus a ten percent rise in economy bookings. And
this is why you're seeing carriers like Air New Zealand
and Quantas redesigning cabins to fit almost half their seats
in premium emirates. This blows my mind. They're ripping out
(11:23):
ten thousand economy seats in order to boost its premium offering.
But the really well thing is that passengers are paying
up despite the fact that costs can sometimes be ten
times more. To put it in real terms, so business
class return to LA can cost more than thirteen thousand dollars,
premium economy close to five thousand dollars, and people are
(11:45):
willing to pay.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
Yeah. I mean I'd pay anything to get some extra
leg room. I just can't afford it.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
I think it speaks to the idea of flights and
travel being being an experience and sort of leaning into that.
Speaker 1 (11:59):
Yes, you know, I do see the pictures of like
the not just the first class, but like the residents
on have you seen those ones on the is it
Emerit or Katar? And it is a full apartment in
the sky. It's as close to flying in a private
jet that you could possibly get I suspect, but you
would need very very deep pockets.
Speaker 2 (12:18):
And then there's the whole controversy about babies and children
in business class or not.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Yes, And I noticed that there was one airline is
it It might be Japan that allows you to actually
see with When you book your ticket, it will tell
you whether there are babies seated around you, and then
you can choose other seats. Did you So?
Speaker 2 (12:40):
I am flying to London in September with my two
children solo, just me, two children outnumbered. We will not
be at the point end of the plane, and honestly,
I don't think it would help me even if we were.
Speaker 1 (12:53):
No. No, I think in the end, you've just got
to greet your teeth and get through that. When you've
got kids and.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
You're flying twenty five hours, Just suck it up, get.
Speaker 1 (13:00):
Through there, Okay. Turning to international news now, the Trump
administration has extended the current tariff pause on Chinese imports
for another ninety days, delaying a potential escalation between the
world's two largest economies.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
President Trump confirmed he had signed the executive order for
the extension in a post on his truth social platform.
Adding that all other elements of the agreement would remain
the same. What this means is that the US won't
increase tariffs beyond the existing thirty percent, while China will
keep its duty steady at ten percent. China says it
hopes to see positive signals from the US on the
(13:32):
basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
And still in the US, President Trump has announced the
deployment of eight hundred National Guard troops across Washington, d C.
And taken over the city's police department to tackle what
he described as a surge in violent crime.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Trump declared a public safety emergency under a provision of
DC's Home Rule Act. This allows the president to assume
temporary control, as he compared crime in the US capital
with a Brazil and Columbia, amongst other countries. The president
threatening similar actions in other major cities like New York
and Chicago if they failed to crack down on quote
(14:10):
out of control crime. However, Donald Trump's claim of rampant
violence contrasts with official data which shows violent crime in
the Capitol reached a thirty year low last year.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Now, like one last one, I We'll just do this
one very very quickly. The Duke and Duchess of Sussex,
which is Megan and Harry. Really, we're really on first
name terms with them all now, aren't we besties? Okay?
I wouldn't quite go that far. They've quashed speculation around
their one hundred million dollar partnership with Netflix, signing a
(14:42):
new multi year film and TV deal. This is this
big money involved.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Here, definitely and kind of at odds with what had
been anticipated. So despite poor viewing figures for some of
the couple's projects, Netflix has maintained its first look arrangement
with the pair, which means the streamer gets the first
shot at any projects from their productions team. Upcoming content
includes a second season of With Love Megan, a Christmas special,
(15:08):
and a documentary on orphaned children in Uganda. It's worth
a reminder that the couple's twenty million dollar Spotify deal
collapsed in twenty twenty three, but clearly Netflix continues to
see commercial potential in brand Sussex.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
I'd love to know how much it is worth. I
reckon it's a long way south of the one hundred
million dollars they got last time.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Well, I hadn't seen any numbers, but I think that
would probably be a pretty pretty good guest of it.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Okay, Up next is Fear and Greed Q and A
speaking today to Belinda Allen, senior economists from Commwealth Bank,
all about interest rate cuts and how many more are
still to come. That is coming up next in the
Fear and Grade playlist on your podcast platform or at
Fearandgreed dot com dot au. Thank you, Natalie, Thank you Michael.
It is Wednesday, the thirteenth of August twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
(15:54):
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Michael Thompson,
and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.