Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock gives the economy a tick
of approval ahead of crucial labor force figures this week.
Qantas says five point seven million customer records have been
leaked on the dark web and bitcoin has a record
sell off. Plus Victoria will legislate to criminalize aggression towards retail,
(00:26):
hospitality and transport workers. And Penfoll's latest Grange vintage spurs
local sales. It is Monday, the thirteenth of October twenty
twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Morning, Michael,
welcome back to the show.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
How was your week off?
Speaker 1 (00:41):
Oh it was very nice, thank you, and a very
busy news week by the looks of it. I've spent
a very enjoyable weekend catching up on all the fear
and greed that I missed out.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
On what you weren't listing as as you went.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
The main story this morning, Sean. Reserve Bank Governor Michelle
Bullock has given the labor market her tick of a approval,
adding that it is a little bit tight in some
areas and the Central Bank expects the unemployment rate to
drift a bit higher over the rest of the year.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
She said that services inflation was still a little sticky.
These are all these terms a little bit tighter, little
sticky terms that the Reserve Bank tends to use, but
it was being offset by slightly lower goods inflation. The
governor also expects the private sector to take over from
the public sector as the driver of economic growth in
recent years. She said government spending had filled the gap,
but that was likely to change and there was a
(01:31):
switch going on from public to private sector demand. She
was also upbeat about consumption, saying it was a bit
better than expected. She didn't say it, but high consumption
is also the reason why the Reserve Banks sounded just
a little cooler on future interst rate cuts at its
board meeting a couple of weeks ago. In the construction sector,
a big employer and also a big booster to the
overall economy, it remained sluggish, she said, adding that the
(01:54):
government's policy to allow first time buyers to purchase a
home with a five percent deposit could push up house prices.
She also talked about investors being back in the market,
but look was speaking before Senate estimates on Friday, in
ahead of a bump a week for economic years with
speeches from her and other Reserve Bank senior management scheduled,
along with September labor force figures. Away from pure economics,
(02:17):
Bullets said the Central Bank was working through over one
hundred and seventy responses to its working paper on reforms
to card surcharges.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
It is a big week for the economy, as you say,
lots of speeches coming up. We do have Michelle Bullet
speaking in New York later in the week. Chief economist
Sarah Hunter is speaking tomorrow, and then, as you mentioned,
the September labor force starter.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
And we'll get the minutes from the latest Reserve Bank
Board meeting of two weeks ago when they went a
little cooler on rate cuts. So definitely a very big
week for the economy. One issue that analysts will be
listening carefully for is what the Central Bank thinks of
asset prices now. Bullet recently in third so she thought
the share market was potentially evalued. It's something the Bank
(03:01):
of England has warned about over the last week. Also
with gold training at record levels, Bitcoin was and we'll
talk about that in a moment, there's just plenty of
room for asset prices to fall. So I think many
analysts be waiting to see what Michelle Bullock Sarah Hunter
says about asset prices on that.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
How did the AX finish up on Friday?
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Well, the SMPASEX two hundred closed slightly lower on Friday
to eighty nine hundred and fifty eight points. Mining stocks
detracted from an otherwise positive day. But things aren't looking
quite so rosy as we head into the new session.
Wall Street tumbled over the weekend. The S and P
five hundred fell nearly three percent, worse session in six months,
while the NASAK one hundred fell three and a half percent.
(03:46):
The Wall Street fear gauged called the VIX index, it
topped twenty for the first time since April. All that
came after US President Donald Trump declared over the weekend
that he would impose an additional one hundred percent tariff
on China and exports control and export controls on and
I quote any and all critical software end quote from
(04:08):
November one. That's in retaliation of Beijing placing curbs on
the exports of rare earths. The White House then acknowledged
Trump could retreat from the dramatic escalation of China back
down from its rare earth restrictions, but it certainly it
spoot markets.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
Something that we're going to do as a Q and
A at some point soon, Sean, is I want to
take a closer look at that VIX index, that this
idea of the fear index or the fear gauge and
how that actually measures is because it is really quite interesting.
But I won't put you on the spot right now
and ask you to explain in detail, but perhaps later
(04:44):
in the week we might address that in Fear and
Greed Q.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
And A one day excellent idea excellent. Now.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
One asset Sean that didn't appreciate the US China tariff
threat was cryptocurrencies, with a big sell off over the weekend.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Just days after touching a record high, Bitcoin fell twelve
percent from more than one hundred and twenty five thousand
US dollars unit to less than one hundred and thirteen
thousand US dollars unit. Some describe the sell off as
the largest liquidation event in crypto history. In twenty four
hour period that's worth more than nineteen billion dollars were
wiped out. More than one point six million traders liquidated
(05:22):
as in sold their bitcoin. That's according to coin glass data,
more than seven billion dollars of positions were sold in
less than one hour of trading. That is quite phenomenal.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Yeah, that's huge. Actually, remiss of me, Sean not to
mention this earlier Fear and greed Q and A Today.
Coming up after the show is Sharell Murphy, chief economist
at EY and it is all about the weak ahead.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
It is all about the weekend, but we talk a
fair bit about labor markets and what's going on in
a minutes. A very big week for the labor market
with the labor force figures coming out. We asked Shirrell
about that, but then more broadly about how the economy's traveling.
Speaker 1 (06:02):
Okay, that's coming up later on after the show. We'll
take a very quick break. In the meantime, Sean back
in a moment with the rest of the day's business news.
Sean Quantas says five point seven million customer records have
been leaked on the dark web as part of a
(06:22):
major hacking program from an international cyber criminal group called
correct Me. If I get this wrong, but it's Scattered
laps Us Hunters, but the second s in laps Us
is a dollar sign. It's a very typical name for
a cyber criminal group, right, so this has affected data
from thirty nine clients of Salesforce.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Well, to be honest, there's't a site. It's actually Scattered Lapses.
Dollar Hunters is a collective of cyber criminal groups. I'm
going to get wrong. It like one's called Scattered something,
the others are Lapses something, the other's Hunters something, and
they've all sort of come together in this issue. So
that's why we have such an odd name, notwithstanding that
(07:06):
most cyber criminal groups have wid names. Anyway, I digress.
The hackers demanded Salesforce player ransom. It refused to do so,
Therefore the information has been leaked. The hackers also compromised
other corporate accounts for major companies, so it wasn't just Quantas.
It was Toyota, Google, AdSense, Cisco, Chanel, IQA, McDonald's, KFC, Marriott,
(07:27):
and Disney. Basically they call their I help disks posed
as employees to gain access to the system. Succeeded in
doing that and stole all this data. Quantas of the
majority of customer records were limited to name, email addresses,
and frequent flyer details. A smaller portion also included business
or home address, date of birth, phone number, gender, and
(07:49):
meal preferences. No credit card details, personal financial information or
passport details were impacted, according to Quantas of course, the
carrier has got some sort of an experience in this
particular issue. Unfortunately, because back in June five point seven
million customer records will leak back there or stolen back then.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
Now, Sean, let's take a look at politics. How about this?
One Independent Senator Lydia Thorpe yesterday said she would burn
down Parliament House to get justice for Palestine.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Speaking at an anti Israel protest in Melbourne, she liked
the Palestinian struggle to the fight for indigenous rights in Australia,
saying the two causes were bound by history of resistance.
In Sydney, thousands of pro Palestinian protests march to condemn
what they called genocide in Gaza. It was a well
behaved demonstration despite being did I permission for a march
(08:39):
that would have ended up at the Opera House. Meanwhile,
dozens of both set sailed from Sydney's Eastern Suburbs towards
the Opera House in a Jewish solidarity convoy urging Australia
to stand up against anti Semitism and racism.
Speaker 1 (08:51):
And there are reports over the weekend that Prime Minister
Anthony Albernezi will do a deal with US President Donald
Trump around critical minerals when the two meet next week.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
Trade Minister Don Farrell wasn't confirming anything, but said the
issues under discussion. He said Australia needs to have a
broad range of customers in the area to provide capital
and ensure there were markets to buy critical minerals. On that,
I think Anthony Aperneze's on holidays this week, isn't he
is he? I might have that wrong, but I just
think I saw that because he's in New York at
(09:22):
the end of the week, he's seeing a better time
of it than Susan Lee.
Speaker 1 (09:26):
Absolutely Sean. The result Political Monitor is out and that's
in the nine newspapers. And you do feel for Susan
Lee because she has been absolutely hammered. In this latest
set of numbers, just thirty three percent of voters have
Lee's performance is either good or very good, which is
(09:46):
down eight percent in just onnth one month, thirty eight
percent of people have rated her performances either poor or
very poor. That's up six percent in this month. And
so obviously there's a lot going on at the moment.
Within the cold You've got Andrew Hasty quitting the front
bench and just disunity everywhere and absolute policy chaos and
(10:08):
just keeps getting worse. Having said that, it's also not
great for Anthony Albernezi at the moment because the same
polls showed that his performance rating was going backwards as well,
but certainly not at the same pace that the opposition
leaders is. So unfortunately for the coalition, it doesn't look
like anything's going to get any easier anytime soon. Shown no,
(10:28):
it doesn't now. Victoria mentioned this one in the intro.
Victoria will legislate to criminalize aggression towards retail, hospitality and
transport workers, following pressure from major retailers and unions to
introduce workplace protection orders as part of a crackdown on
this massive surge that we've seen in retail crime.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
And it's been particularly the case in Victoria. The Allen
government met with the unions representing retail and transport workers
to brief them on proposed laws to increase penalties against
people who assault customers facing workers. According to a story
in the fin Review, under proposed laws, the penalty for
summary offenses will double from three months to six months
in jail. That mirrors similar crimes against emergency workers. Also
(11:11):
bringing cases of serious assault to court as indictable offenses
with up to five years jail that will be made easier.
But the bill would not include workplace protection orders, which
threakin to personal safety intervention orders that protect victims of
family violence and would ban high harm repeat offenders from stores.
Now this is a big issue for the unions because
(11:34):
these workplace protection orders have been used in the Act
and it is quite incredible how effective they've been in
reducing incidents of aggression and violence In camera. Retail stores
can gather evidence such as staff and witness statements and
security camera footage and apply to a magistrate for the
order being banning someone from a store for twelve months.
Speaker 1 (11:58):
Now, the footage season is over forty seasoned plural both
over Sean. The auction market seems to be getting back
to normal, I suppose as normal as spring selling season
can be. Clearance rates are good over the past week, yeah.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Twenty six hundred homes taken to auction. The combined Capital
city prellminary clearance rate came in eight drum roll please,
seventy three point zero percent, the highest in three weeks.
Melbourne ed the way six seventy three point five. Actually
Sidney with seventy three point nine, Brisbane a little lowered
just under sixty nine act about sixty two at late
(12:33):
eighty one percent.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
Australia has no automotive manufacturing industry Sean, so therefore Australia's
anti dumping laws cannot be applied to an increase in
the number of Chinese electric vehicles being sold in this country.
This is according to the Anti Dumping Commissioner.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
So this came out of Senate estimates. On Friday, Coalition
Senator Susan McDonald said she's concerned about automotive dealers who
have large contracts with le legacy car brands and the
challenges they might face from the influx of influx of
Chinese manufacturers. Then we've talked a lot, particularly in the
EV space, about how Chinese manufacturers are selling many cars
(13:12):
in Australia. Latinas said that because these manufacturers were not
making or producing goods, they wouldn't be captured by the
regime basically because they're not in competition with a producer
in Australia. China produces more than seventy percent of the
world's evs and is the dominant supplier here, two manufacturers,
of course, fromong the top ten sellers. Industry Minister Tim
(13:32):
Airs said he's willing to meet with dealership groups to
discuss these emerging challenges.
Speaker 1 (13:38):
Finally, before we get to international news, how about this.
Penfold's latest vintage of Grange Hermitage is driving record sales
for the winemaker at liquor retailers after the drop achieved
a perfect one hundred point score from wine tasters. I
imagine you rush straight out and bought a case one.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Thousand dollars in bottle, the two twenty twenty one vintage
two cases. What's interesting is that enthusiasm is spanning, not
certainly for grains, but right through the more affordable brands
of Penfiles. I've been twenty eight that's according to Dan
Murphy's and Cole's Liquor, as reported in The Australian. The
(14:18):
New Grange twenty twenty one vintage thousand bucks a bottle.
Been twenty eight, it's about fifty dollars a bottle. The
twenty twenty five penfolds line up, unveiled in August has
been welcomed, particularly since many prices actually haven't changed since
last year. According to the media report, the latest fintash
has broken all first day sales records. This is the
Graine vintage all first day sales records in Australian e
(14:40):
commerce channels, and grains sold more in a single month
than it has ever before.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Okay, Now turning to international news, we mentioned that Donald
Trump has imposed new one hundred percent tariffs on Chinese goods.
Beijing has responded somewhat more tactfully, saying the US should
stop threatening it with higher tab harufs and urged more negotiations.
Speaker 2 (15:02):
The Ministry of Commerce and China's recent trade countermeasures on
US related issues were necessary defensive actions in Beijing will
take corresponding measures to safeguard its rights if the US
persists in its actions. They're sort of fighting words, which
markets don't particularly like. Trump's threats came after China added
new port fees on US ships started an anti trust
(15:24):
investigation into qualcom and unveiled new curbs on exports of
rare words and other critical minerals. According to Bloomberg, I quote,
the Commerce ministry threatening with high tariffs at every turn
is not the right way to get along with China.
China urges the US to correct its wrong practices as
soon as possible. It's funny in this when China certainly
sounds like the more sensible diplomatic organizer country in these negotiations.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
Yeah, a slightly unusual position to be in here.
Speaker 2 (15:52):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
Coming up next Fearing grad Q and a featuring Charell
Murphy all about the weak ahead. But as you say,
with a really close look at the labor market and
what's happening and what we can expect to come out
on Thursday. It's coming up in the Fear and Greed
playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com.
Today you which is where you sign up for the
free daily newsletter Sean, which is a stellar edition today.
Speaker 2 (16:14):
Oh Cracking Read, Michael Cracking Read.
Speaker 1 (16:17):
If you have not signed up for this Cracking read,
then do it today. I'll put a link in today's
show notes. It's entirely free and lands in your inbox
every morning by six am. Thanks very much, Sean.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Thanks Michael.
Speaker 1 (16:27):
It's Monday, the thirteenth of October twenty twenty five. Make
sure you're following the podcast and please join us online
on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok, and Facebook. Michael Thompson, and
that was fear and greed. Have a great day.