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July 6, 2025 • 16 mins

Monday 7 July 2025

A huge week for the economy with the Reserve Bank board tipped to cut rates tomorrow. 

And more, including:

  • Another very strong weekend for the property market. 
  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signals a more independent foreign policy, in a speech that might ruffle a few feathers in both Beijing and Washington. 
  • Australia records its worst year for corporate insolvencies
  • How courtside seats at Wimbledon have become a hot asset for investors.

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use
today a huge week for the economy, with the Reserve
Bank Board tip to cut rates tomorrow, another very strong
weekend for the property market, and Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi
signals a more independent foreign policy in a speech that
might just ruffle a few feathers in both Beijing and Washington.
Plus Australia records its worst year for corporate insolvencies ever,

(00:31):
and how courtside seats at Wimbledon have become a very
hot asset for investors. It is Monday, the seventh of
July twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,
Adam Lange. Good morning, Michael, Adam. The main story this morning,
huge week for the economy, the Reserve Bank Board meeting
over two days starting today, rate cut likely to be
announced tomorrow afternoon. The deliberations follow a surprisingly low inflation

(00:56):
print out for May, as well as very weak retail
sales and bill approvals data. And that data comes as
the economy itself as running at a week one and
a half percent pace, perhaps unsurprisingly the big bank economists.
When you think about all of that, all the economists
are tipping a rate cut tomorrow and it may just
be the first of a few more this year.

Speaker 2 (01:18):
Yeah, Michael, there's a lot of anticipation on this one
and it could be good news for people with a
mortgage with minimum repayment levels set to drop. The Reserve
Bank of Australia cash rate now sits at three point
eighty five percent and it is likely to come down.
That would mean the standard variable home loan rate will
probably end this year under six percent and possibly as
low as five point five percent. Remember they started twenty

(01:41):
twenty five closer to seven percent, and that's a big
amount when you apply to a homelane. The challenge for
the Reserve Bank is to ensure the economy is not
slowing too much, which is a very different picture for
where it was just six months ago. Back then it
was all about containing inflation.

Speaker 1 (01:56):
Yeah, there is a lot going on and a lot
going into this decision then tomorrow. Certainly, the outlook for
interest rates does seem to be helping the local housing market.
The preliminary clearance rate across the capital cities for the
weekend and for last week coming in at seventy three
point one percent according to totality Melbourne. Really it continues
to rebound with a preliminary auction clearance rate of seventy

(02:19):
five point five percent. That's up slightly from the week before.
How about this, Though Melbourne has now recorded clearance rates
above seventy percent for ten straight weeks and above seventy
five percent for the past three, it does look an
awful lot like buyers are making the most of relative
affordability following a dip in prices last year.

Speaker 2 (02:40):
Yeah, Michael. Alongside that, Sydney's clearance rate came in just
behind Melbourne at seventy two point five percent, slightly down
from the previous week. Brisbane posted a healthy seventy point
eight percent and Canberra matched in the national average at
seventy three point one percent. Adelaide trailed the pack at
sixty five point seven. Clearly, there's a bit of enthusiasm

(03:00):
out there, not just in Melbourne, fueled by the anticipation
of a rate cut tomorrow and maybe more to come.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
Going from enthusiasm and excitement and a pretty good news story,
adam to this one, which is not the case the
exact opposite. Australia has just recorded its worst year for
corporate insolvencies, with fourteen th one hundred and five businesses
going under in FY twenty five as companies face rising costs,
weaker demand and a much tougher stance from the Australian

(03:30):
Taxation Office the ATO. We've talked about this in the past.
They resumed arguably more aggressive debt collection post pandemic, including
seizing funds and restricting international travel for directors. It is
a fairly alarming headline number, but it is thought that
the surge does reflect, at least in part, a catch
up from years of unusually low insolvency rates, dudent COVID

(03:53):
era leniency, and a lot of government support through that
pandemic period.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
Yeah, Michael, and this is where the two stories link,
of the reason behind lower interest rates that pressure on
consumers and businesses, and this is some of the data
coming through ACIC data shows that the construction industry was
the hardest hit in the last twelve months, accounting for
nearly a quarter of those fourteen one hundred and five insolvencies,
followed by the hospitality and food services sectors. At the

(04:23):
state level, New South Wales recorded the highest number of insolvencies,
while Victoria experienced the largest year on year increase. The
Northern Territory had a one hundred and two percent jump
in insolvencies, more than doubling compared to the previous year. Now. Meanwhile,
a new report from law firm Clayton UTS predicting solvency
rates will continue to rise this year, with signs of

(04:44):
deeper and more long term stress emerging in sectors due
to geopolitical instability globally and the sluggish growth rate here
at home. Although there is a little good news. The
report suggests lower interest rates and inflation may ease those
pressures being felt in some way sectors through to this
year's end.

Speaker 1 (05:02):
Yeah, he's hoping that is the case. Just a quick look, Adam,
before we head to a break at where markets finished
up last week. The SMPA Sex two hundred actually finished
pretty strong, setting a new closing record on Friday, up
zero point one percent to eighty six hundred and three points.
That is the first time that the local boss has
closed above eighty six hundred points. Eight of the eleven

(05:22):
sub industries were up, led by the tech and retail sectors.
They did have a solid lead in from Wall Street,
where they were stronger than expected job started and that
boosted confidence about the US economy. US markets, of course,
were then closed on Friday for the fourth of July
public holiday. Lots of Independence Day. Hooray indeed, okay, Adam,

(05:43):
quick break, We've got a lot more still to come.
We'll be back in a moment with the rest of
the day's business news. Adam. Prime Minister Anthony Abernezi has
signaled a more independent Australian foreign policy and a major
speech that might not go down too well in Washington.

(06:04):
This was on Saturday night. He delivered the John Curtin Oration,
declaring that quote, our fate will be decided in our region.
In outlining what he called the Australian Way, he highlighted
stronger ties with regional neighbors, a rules based international order,
and a rejection of great power peace likely directed squarely

(06:24):
at China. But curiously he didn't mention the Orchest Pact,
which is, of course that the massive security deal with
the US and the UK involving submarines and a very
large amount of money over a long period of time,
and that is currently being reviewed by the White House.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
Yes, Michael, Prime Minister Albanizi has been busy in recent days,
and the John Curtin oration is one of them. The
Australian newspaper reports that the speech hasn't been received well
in Washington, with insiders apparently saying it's detached from reality
and that true independence would require Australia to substantially lift
its defense spending. This is a sticking point between the

(07:00):
US and Australia, and between the US and most other nations. Actually,
with President Donald Trump succeeding in pushing European allies in
NATO to boost military spending, it's certainly an interesting time
for the Prime Minister to visit China. He's due to
head to Beijing at the end of this week.

Speaker 1 (07:17):
Yeah, he's indeed busy, and you mentioned that he has
had a busy few days. It was the second big
speech for the PM in as many days, because on
Friday he told an event in Sydney that it was
time for businesses to quote resume their rightful place as
the primary source of growth in our economy instead of
governments really doing the heavy lifting in that space. He
also came close, i would say, to ruling out increasing

(07:40):
the GST as part of tax reform in this term
saying he's a supporter of progressive taxes and consumption taxes
are regressive in their nature. The government is holding around
table next month to improve productivity and look at ideas
for reform. He's kind of signaling that maybe some ideas
will be more welcome than others.

Speaker 2 (08:01):
Yeah, Michael, very interesting characterizations of the terms progressive and regressive.
I think we can expect to hear more about them. Meanwhile,
the Opposition has accused the Prime Minister of waiving the
white flag on tariffs after he used the same speech
to say he expected US President Donald Trump to confirm
a ten percent tariff on Australian exports to the US

(08:21):
this week July ninth. This Wednesday, we'll see the end
of the ninety day pause on large reciprocal tariffs announced
by the President back in April, and Anthony Albanizi says
he expects to receive a letter confirming Australia's ten percent
tariff will remain in place. It's actually been in place
this whole time because this was the baseline rate where
it was the larger reciprocal tariffs that were paused, giving

(08:44):
other countries time to negotiate. Only the UK and Vietnam
have so far reached trade deals during that ninety day pause,
but neither have had tariffs removed altogether. Shadow Trade Minister
Kevin Hogan says it is embarrassing Australia hasn't been able
to secure a meeting with the us P. Isn't it
to argue the case for an exemption.

Speaker 1 (09:03):
I know we've had a lot of political news, Adam,
but I'm just going to squeeze one last tiny political
morsel in here. Former Assistant Treasurer and Financial Services Minister
Stephen Jones too. I only retired from Parliament at the
election in May, so he's been busy. He's just been
appointed Australia's new ambassador to the OECD, the Organization for

(09:23):
Economic Cooperation and Development, which is actually headed up by
another Australian. So I might be able to form a
little club over there. You've got the former Liberal Finance
Minister Mattias Korman, who is in fact the I think
it's the Secretary General. He is the leader of the OECD.
So I mean they come from opposite sides of politics,
but once you're on the global stage, we're all just Australians.

Speaker 2 (09:46):
Right Team Australia over there, Michael.

Speaker 1 (09:48):
Yes, indeed, okay, moving away now from politics, let's talk cars, Adam, well,
not cars specifically, not cars, because this is about yutes. Instead,
Dual cab utes continued to dominate Australia's new vehicle sales,
and I reckon it might just be time, and this
might be a little bit early, but it's time to

(10:08):
call the death of the sedan and the hatback.

Speaker 2 (10:13):
No, it's a bold call.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
It's a bold call, but I'm going to make it.
The top ten vehicles sold last month. This is according
to the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, for a mix
of utes and SUVs as we are used to now
there is not a single light passenger vehicle making that list.
Sales of hatchbacks and Sedan's have fallen not just a
little bit, but nearly twenty eight percent compared to the

(10:37):
same time last year. They now make up just twelve
point four percent of the market. That's flatlined.

Speaker 2 (10:46):
It's incredible.

Speaker 1 (10:47):
Yeah, dead, not quite okay, sorry, still not quite.

Speaker 2 (10:53):
Overall, Michael, it's a very resilient market. Now, get this
for a number, it's such a big one, more than
one hundred and twenty two and new vehicles were sold
last month, and that is actually a two point four
percent increase on June last year. The Ford Ranger came
out on top, followed by the Toyota Highlights, the Ysuzu
D Max and the BYD Shark. Six electric vehicles saw

(11:14):
stronger sales in June, led by BYD, but year to
date figures show their overall market share slipping slightly to
seven point seven percent, down from eight in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 1 (11:23):
Turning to international News now, and billionaire Elon Musk has
followed through on his threat to set up a new
political party after US President Donald Trump officially signed his
massive tax and spending bill into law over the weekend.
The President signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on
Saturday morning, our time, fulfilling his promise to finalize it
by his self imposed July four deadline. The nearly nine

(11:46):
hundred page bill inacts four point five trillion US dollars
in tax cuts, making Trumps twenty seventeen tax cuts permanent,
introduces new deductions all over the place. It also boosts
military spending funds, a large scale border enforcement push that's
the immigration crackdown, and imposes deep cuts to safety in
that program, things like medicaid and food assistance.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
Michael, as we know, Elon Musk has made no secret
of his opposition to this bill, criticizing for adding nearly
three point three trillion US dollars to the national debt
over the next decade. He threatened to start up a
political party to take on the president if the bill
went through, and after running a poll on social platform X,
he wrote, quote by a factor of two to one,

(12:30):
you want a new political party, and you shall have it.
When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste and graft.
We live in a one party system, not a democracy. Today.
The America Party is formed to give you back your freedom.
End of quote, Michael. There's not a lot of detail
about the party at this stage, but it's safe to
say that Trump versus Musk feud isn't stopping anytime soon.

(12:52):
And I've got a quick question for you, Michael, Yes,
the America Party. Do you think that Elon Musk could
have taken some inspiration from our own Clive Palmer? He
left trumpet of Patriots on the shelf.

Speaker 1 (13:05):
Well, it didn't exactly work so well for Clive Palmer,
did it well that is true. No, I think maybe
he did look at it and then decided to go
quite deliberately in the opposite direction, which is probably the
smart movie bugle of musks. Oh I like that. Okay,
great suggestion. One last one. We're running out of time, Adam.
I just need to mention. I don't know about you.
I've been watching a lot of the tennis over the

(13:26):
last week. The coverage of Himbledon has been fantastic, so
this story from Bloomberg as a ripper Debncher. Seats at
the tournament have become something of a hot ticket financial asset.
How it works is basically, it's the All England Lawn
Tennis Club, which obviously runs the tournament, sells de Benches
a guaranteed seat on center Court or Number one court
for a five year stretch. Lots of sporting clubs do

(13:49):
this as it helps raise kind of funds long term
for maintenance and construction. Wimbledon's actually been doing it for
more than a century, so it's not new. Well it
is to me, Michael, so thank you for bringing us
this news. Apparently demand is soaring and the price is climbing.
Prime center court spots have sailed past the two hundred
thousand pound that's over four hundred and fifteen thousand Australian

(14:11):
dollars for the two thousand and twenty six to twenty
thirty period. They originally went on sale last year for
one hundred and sixteen thousand pounds and some are now
changing hands again before the trading period has even started.
The other benefit is the ability to sell individual tickets
on the days the holder can't attend, the only exchangeable
tickets for Wimbledon. There were apparently concerns about the future

(14:33):
demand for the de benches following the retirement of stars
like Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray, but these
prices they're getting now suggest the All England Lawn Tennis
Club had absolutely nothing to worry about. It's a good
story that one. Up next is the Fear and Great
Daily Interview Today. Adam, you're speaking with Cameron McCormack, who
is the senior portfolio manager at Van Neck. It's a

(14:55):
really interesting chat this one for investors.

Speaker 2 (14:58):
Yeah, Michael, he had this quote about next quarter is
as clear as mud. But then he helps us explain
the things that he's seeing and the things that we
should pay attention to in amongst all that.

Speaker 1 (15:09):
Mud, Yeah, some of the kind of emerging markets and
the fact that there's traditional safe bets as well, like
perhaps US equities and bonds, that they're not necessarily the same, Yeah,
not necessarily going to offer the same rewards. And where
else perhaps you might look. It is a good chat
coming up next and at midday Fear and Greed the
week Ahead with our resident economist Stephen could call us
plenty of good listening in the Fear and Greed playlist

(15:30):
on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com todayu
which is where you sign up for the free daily
newsletter that I completely forgot to mention earlier, Adam. If
you sign up today then you will get it every
weekday by six am in your inbox. It is entirely free.
Thanks very much, Adam.

Speaker 2 (15:47):
Thank you Michael. And that newsletter is a three minute
productivity hack. I highly recommend it.

Speaker 1 (15:52):
Oh, great way to sell this, Adam, sign up today.
I'll put a link in today's show notes. It is Monday,
the seventh of July twenty twenty five. Make sure you
follow the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson. The atmosphere and greed.
Have a great day.
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