Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
With less than two weeks to go until the end
of the year, small caps have significantly outperformed large caps
in twenty twenty five. Prime Minister Anthony Alberinezi accepts some
blame for the Bondai massacre, and the boss of Woodside
Energy poached to run BP globally, plus YouTube to broadcast
(00:27):
the oscars and a rare adoption in the polar bear community.
It is Friday, the nineteenth of December twenty twenty five.
I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Ale.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Good morning, Michael Sewan.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
The main story this morning. With less than two weeks
to go before the end of the year, small caps
have outperformed their large counterparts, with gold companies leading the
way of the major indices on the AX. Only the
Tech index went backwards, but the next worst performing was
the top twenty companies.
Speaker 2 (00:57):
Indeed, after several years of promise, it's a year for
smaller companies, with the ASEX two hundred Resources Index, which
has a very large number of small stocks on it,
up twenty seven percent in twenty twenty five, overaw the
ASEX Small Ordinaries index was up eighteen percent, whereas the
ASX twenty ie the top twenty stocks, it rose just
(01:18):
two percent. The ASX two hundred was five percent. That's
across all of them, because the was up five percent.
Because the industries are weighted by market cap, the larger
stocks have a far greater influence on the course than
the smaller caps. But broadly, Michael, the smaller stock was
in twenty twenty five, the better it performed on average.
So the ASEX three hundred did better than the two hundred,
which did better than the one hundred, which did better
(01:41):
than the fifty, which did better than the twenty. No
big part of the reason for the outperformance is commodities.
It is an only behp Rio Tintom fortest few medals
that have done well in recent times. The resource juniors
and explorers have generally outperformed. Seventeen of the top twenty
performing stocks over the past year are mining related, and
less even of those seventeen are gold miners.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
Yes, but there must be more to it than just
commodity prices, right, because you've got companies like Eagles Automotive
Tab Corp. A two milk that's not a commodity property. Well,
I suppose milk is a soft commodity business. Yes, yes,
Property Group, Charter Hall, Annuities, and fund manager Challenger, they're
all up fifty percent or more than twenty twenty five.
(02:22):
Did you just say milk is a commodity for babies?
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Well, a milk does powdered milk.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
Yeah, I know it, Just it feels like you are
specifically pointing out this is just a baby commodity.
Speaker 2 (02:32):
I like that. Yes, I mean there is. I mean
some have got specific stock issues of the two hundred
drane shields up nearly three hundred percent this year, and
there's lots of wars going on involving draints and that's
why that's up so well. Shipbuild Ostel has nearly doubled
in size thanks to foreign investors buying in so take
over pushing that one. But broadly, smaller companies tend to
(02:55):
do better in lower interest rate environments. We have had
three rate cuts this year, both because they're often sicklical stocks,
also because many of them carry lots of debt, and
of course when interest rates go down, their debt bills
go down. Also, large caps have run so hard, or
they had run so hard. Small caps have been looking
relatively cheap quite a while. On the ASEX, some of
(03:16):
the biggest stocks have had with really large waiting. If
they don't do well, then it drags down the whole index.
So you can throw Commonwealth Banks, CSL, Macquarie, Goodman Group,
Woodside Energy, Aristocrat, Leisure, all top twenty stocks that went
backwards over the last year.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
It hasn't been a great year for some other asset
classes either. Bitcoin, for example, that will end lower than
where it started the year, having jumped nearly thirty percent
then fallen more than thirty percent.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Yes, I think you said in the afternoon report yesterday
that it's only the fourth year, is it.
Speaker 1 (03:50):
Yeah, yeah, the only the fourth year since Bitcoin's been
around that it will have a negative year.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
Ethereum's also down, as is cart DOWNO. The Ausie dollars
had a dull year. It did tumble below sixty US
cents in April briefly, but really it started the year
around sixty two to sixty three usns finished around sixty
six US sense. That's like a five percent shift. Ain't
much going on there. Gold has sword. We know that
oil has fallen. All important iron oil prices been pretty
(04:19):
in factor. It's held up relatively well as far as.
Speaker 1 (04:22):
The Aussie dollar. I know we mock it for just
being super stable, but for a currency, is stability a
good thing like that because at least kind of everyone
on both sides knows what they're going to get.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Broadly, I mean, it's just like the currency is just
a price you buy and sell goods from a country,
just like a price of chocolate, you know, and you
have sales on and you have higher prices. So it's
kind of neither good nor bad. Yeah, it just acts
as a shock absorber, yeah, okay, and selling all right,
local market.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
I mean, these are all big picture things. It the
whole year. Just tell us about yesterday.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
What happened yesterday, very exciting day. Michael closed flat eight thousand,
five hundred and eighty eight points worse than the market,
with the energy and utilities in deceased, best consumer staples.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Okay.
Speaker 2 (05:06):
Now.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi sean yesterday he accepted responsibility for
what happened at Bondai Beach last weekend as Prime Minister
of Australia, but he also called for the nation to
be united. In the aftermath of the massacre.
Speaker 2 (05:20):
The Prime Minister is coming under intense fire, mostly for
not doing enough to combat anti Semitism. Yesterday, the government
said it was moving to shift the threshold of hate
speech laws in an effort to capture people spreading hate,
division and radicalization, including preachers and leaders who promote violence.
It also announced that Business Joy and David Gonsky will
lead a twelve month task force to ensure the training
(05:43):
education system prevents, tackles and properly responds to anti Semitism.
The governments also resisted calls for a Royal commission into
the terror attack. Meanwhile, funerals were held yesterday for a
number of victims, including ten year old Matilda, who was
gunned down while running towards her father.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Okay, we'll be back in a moment with the rest
of the day's business news. Sean, the CEO of oil
giant Woodside Energy, Meg O'Neil, has resigned and will take
on the top job at global major BP. That is
(06:21):
a big job, it sure is.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
O'nil will take over on April one. BP chair Albert
Manifold said her proven track record of driving transformation, growth
and discipline capital allocation makes her the right leader, Woodside
said Liz Westcott, who runs your company's Australian operations, will
take over as acting chief executive until his successor is found.
Now I have a confession, Michael hm go On. The
(06:44):
CEO I have always wanted to meet is mego neil
because she runs an oil and gas company that can't
be easy from a ranger stand points, from environment to
finance slash capital allocation to how you travel the world
like she does. I just like him to know what
makes a tick. I've always kind of watched meg O'Neil
(07:06):
from AFAR and thought, well, I know people who know her, and.
Speaker 1 (07:10):
Well we do have one more reporting season to get
through before true before she finishes up. So I'm going
to set that as your target. As my target, my
goal is to see if Meg O'Neil will come on
and discuss Woodside's results in for.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Would I mean, see how BP that's about as good
as it gets in oil and gas. You know she
will be a third chief executive in five years of
that company hasn't had hugely long tenure. First outsider to
lead BHP it's one hundred and sixteen year history, first
woman to lead BHP in its one hundred and sixteen
year history.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
First outsider. That's one hundred and sixteen years that is
that is big. But she's got a good track record.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
I mean she has and she's a transformation person and
that's what they want. It kind of puts her in
the same league as people like it. You probably never
remember Charlie Bell. Yes, Brend McDonald's started the rub restore
in sea, work his way up to literally run the
whole thing, tragically died whilst very young. Andrew Laverez ran
our Chemicals. Another one. I mean, I still think the
(08:10):
absolute top in terms of success on the global stage
has to go Rupert Murdoch. But Mago Nol congratulations you're
on the way.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
Yeah, absolutely now. Optus workers Sean faced the sack or
financial penalties after an independent review exposed a litany of
failures behind September's deadly triple zero outage.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Telco's chairman called the findings a sobering read for everyone
at Optus. The shot review, released yesterday, found at least
ten separate mistakes by Uptiss Engineers and Contract and Nokia
during what should have been a routine firewall upgrade on
September eighteen, those failures left six hundred and fifty five
people unable to reach emergency services for almost fourteen hours.
(08:50):
Two people died. This is according to nine Media. The
review found that of the six hundred and five callers
who tried to dial Triple zero across South Australia, Western Australia,
in the Northern territorin part New South Wales on that day,
just one hundred and fifty got through. It's a seventy
five percent failure rate. The opter Sport accepted all twenty
one recommendations from the review led by corporate veteran Dot
(09:11):
Liil led by corporate veteran doctor Kerry Shott, at a
meeting on Tuesday.
Speaker 1 (09:16):
Netwealth has agreed to refund almost one hundred million dollars
to victims of the failed First Guardian fund who invested
in the scheme via its superannuation platform.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Networth admitted to the corporate regulator that it had failed
to understand or evaluate the risks before offering First Guardian
to clients of its platform. It's the second largest compensation
order secured by ASSEK, after mcquarie agreed to pay more
than three or pay three hundred and fifteen billion dollars.
The banking regulator. This training Predential Regulation Authority also secured
a court enforceable undertaking from Netwealth and imposed license conditions
(09:50):
on another platform, equity Trustees, requiring both to hire independent
experts to review their investments. Now, between First Guardian and SHILD,
about twelve thousand Australian's collectively lost one point one billion
dollars after they were signed up by lead generators and
financial advisors, often using high pressure tactics.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
Financial Crimes Agency os TRAK is investigating Bendigo and Adelaide
Bank's compliance with anti money laundering rules after four people
were arrested following suspicious activity at one of the regional
lenders branches.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Currently last month said it had tasked Delute to investigate
any money laundering risks at a review that found weaknesses
and deficiencies across many key aspects. Now, the Ostrack investigation
announced yesterday came as the Australian Predancial Regulation Authority said
it would force the bank to hold extra money fifty
million dollars on its balance sheet to mitigate risk. APP
has also demanded the lender conduct and independent review of
(10:41):
the root causes these issues. According to the finn.
Speaker 1 (10:44):
In Corporate News yesterday a couple of stories around bapcoor
was the top performer on the ASX two hundred following
the resignation of chief executive Angus McKay less than eighteen
months into the role. Backcour's share price jumped fifteen percent.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Yeah, that can't be good, can it. I'st not believe,
not good for the ego. Actually, a guy called Chris
Wallsmith is the replacement. He's super tea would I very
highly regarded, So maybe that's the reason.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Might be more to do with him.
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Maybe the other one chairs of uranium minor Boss Energy
it felt twenty five percent, So Bapcot was the best
on the a SX two hundred, Boss Energy the worst.
The A SEX two hundred hit a four year low
after withdrawing a feasibility study for its Honeymoon project in
South Australia.
Speaker 1 (11:22):
Ouch okay International News. The Oscars Sean, I know you're
a big fan of the Oscars will be exclusively streamed
on YouTube. I just love how blankly you looked at.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
Me just now. So I left to New York for
a while and down the hall from us sleep the family,
lovely family and the mum. She was a partner. I
just can't remember which firm it was, but her job
not well sorry, she was a partner at the accounting firm.
But when on Oscars night, she'd be that she was
the person that walked on with the envelope. The envelopes I.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
Wasn't at all involved in. Remember the big Starga when
the wrong one one was announced and there was the
investigation of how the envelopes all kind of how the
wrong info got out there.
Speaker 2 (12:06):
Yeah no, but that's what That's what she did. Didn't
say a word, just walked on because it was all
of lock and key until the final moment. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Well, we'll be watching it now on YouTube Sean from
twenty twenty nine, after the Academy of Motion Picture Arts
and Science has struck a deal with YouTube, ending a
near fifty year run on free to Our ABC.
Speaker 2 (12:27):
Doesn't that show you how Hollywood's changed? Oh yeah, Basically,
hollywoods confronting shrinking TV audiences, audiences, changing viewing habits, particularly
among younger viewers, so they've gone to YouTube. OSCAR ratings
have steadily fallen over the past decade from more than
thirty four million viewers in twenty sixteen to around twenty
million this year. YouTube now accounts for about thirty percent
(12:50):
of all TV viewing times in the US, more than
any other streaming platform. Quite remarkable. The New York Times
reports New York Times reports US network ABC had hoped
to retain the rights but at a reduced fee, whereas
the Academy wanted to hire some to help fund is
year round activities, including film restoration. It's not known how
(13:10):
much YouTube paid for the rights, but a seismic shift there.
Speaker 1 (13:13):
Yeah, absolutely just so funny that that's what the Academy
is doing as well, that you just think the Academy
all they do is the oscars. They're restoring films, good
other things as well, so they need more money for it,
and YouTube is helping them out. Finally, Sean polar Bears.
I don't exactly know what polar bears have to do
with business news, but we need a feel good story.
(13:35):
It's been a bad week indeed. Researchers tracking wild polar
bears in Northern Canada have witnessed something that they've described
as exceedingly rare. It is a mother bear adopting a
cub that was not biologically her own So there's a
five year old mother bear and her ten to eleven
month old cubs, including her adoptee, were observed and captured
(13:56):
on camera during the annual Polar Bear my along the
western Hudson Bay, near a town that is known for
its polar bear population. So if you're going to watch
polar bears, that's where you go.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Yeah, so you go to Churchill, Manitoba to watch polar bears.
And I'm just saying that out loud because you skipped
that name because I think you were worried about how
you're going to pronounce Mintoba Manitoba.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
I was like, I don't know about Manitoba. I was like,
you know what, it's not essential anyway. It's only the
thirteenth known case of adoption out of the forty six
hundred bears stated for nearly five decades in the area.
According to the BBC, the mother bear was first captured
as she emerged from her maternity then this spring. At
the time, she had one cub, which scientists tag for study.
(14:42):
In the fall, she was seen again, but this time
with two cubs, the original cub that have been tagged
and another without a tag. Researchers aren't sure what happened
to the new cub's biological mother, but they are trying
to identify her with genetic samples. Polar bears in the
wild only have a fifty percent chance of surviving into adulthood.
Having mother caring for them improves their odds, So this
(15:03):
mama bear is doing a cracking job for maybe bear.
The cubs appear to be healthy. Research you said they
likely stayed with their mum until they're about two and
a half years old. That's a great story to finish on.
Up next is Fear and Greed Q and A with
amps Diana Messina.
Speaker 2 (15:18):
We love Diana. She's a great supporter of Fear and
Greed and she came on and gave us the five
things she learned this year and they were not really economic.
I mean five things she learned this year about how
to read the economy really interesting and.
Speaker 1 (15:33):
Their impact on markets. There's just so much in it.
It's a really good chat. It's coming up next to
the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or
at Fearandgreed dot com dot au. We are back tomorrow
with the weekend edition and then Sunday Q and A
and then we're moving to the summer series of Fear
and Greed from Monday.
Speaker 2 (15:50):
Short shorter episodes. Shorter episodes out every day every day,
twice a day, in fact, twice a day, but no newsletter.
We're taking the newsletters, taking a break.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
That's right, that's right. But if you like listening to
Fear and Greed, never Fear, we will be in your
ears every day over summer. So thank you for sticking
with us, and thank you Sean.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
Thanks Michael.
Speaker 1 (16:09):
It is Friday, the nineteenth of December twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
x TikTok, and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was
Fear and Greed. Have a great day.