October 13, 2025 • 16 mins
Tuesday 14 October 2025
The federal government backflips on superannuation, watering down plans to increase taxes on balances above $3 million.
- Hamas releases Israeli hostages in the first step of the middle east peace plan.
- ANZ’s new boss outlines big changes to the bank’s strategy, winning plaudits from investors.
- Penfolds’ owner Treasury Wine Estates is struggling to sell into China.
- Strava beats all comers in the fitness app race.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The federal government backflips on superannuation, watering down plans to
increase taxes on balances above three million dollars, her Mass
releases Israeli hostages in the first step of the Middle
East peace Plan. And A and Z's new boss outlines
big changes to the bank strategy, winning plaudits from investors.
(00:27):
Class penfolds owner Treasury Wine estates struggles to sell into China,
and Strava beats all comers in the fitness app race.
It is Tuesday, the fourteenth of October twenty twenty five.
I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Good morning, Michael. The Fitness one is for you.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
I thought it would have been for you because you
are a notorious runner.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Notorious I think Adam Laney is a notorious runner more
the occasional runner is how I know.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
I shouldn't toss around terms like notorious and infamous without
actually having grounds to do. So let's get onto the
show today, Sean. We've got some big stories to get through.
The main story this morning, though the federal government has
made major concessions aka backflip. So it's landmark policy to
increase taxation on superannuation balances above three million dollars, including
(01:18):
indexing the threshold, and importantly, as you pointed out even
last week, sparing unrealized gains from the new levy.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yep, I would call this a backflip with Pike. The changes,
which follow an intervention from Prime minis that Anthony Albanezi,
also include a new ten million dollar balance threshold, above
which an extra twenty five percentage points of earning the
tax will apply. What that means is earnings on balances
between three million dollars and ten million dollars. About ninety
(01:47):
thousand people have that. I'll be taxed thirty percent. Anything
over that will effect. There's about eighty thousand people who
have got more than ten million dollars in their super ballance. Well,
they'll be hit with a forty percent tax rate. Federal
treasure Jim Chalmers announced the changes yesterday and said the
new tax regime will begin later than expected, on July
one next year. That will also be a superannuation top
(02:10):
up for low income earners on July one, twenty twenty seven. Now,
that's mainly due to correct a discrepancy caused by the
top up income tax cuts. So we've got the income
tax cuts, but what that meant was about one point
three million low paid workers earning between thirty seven thousand
and forty five thousand would have paid a higher rate
of tax on their SUPER than on their income. So
(02:32):
I'm going to get eight hundred and ten dollars top up.
Low income earners who make less than thirty seven thousand
dollars the same issue for them. Generally, they shouldn't be well,
They certainly shouldn't be paying more tax on their super
than their income tax, so they're going to get a
top up of five hundred dollars. The total costs of
the changes four point two billion dollars over the next
four years and lost earnings.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
I don't know what to make of this because it
is quite the backflip, as we discussed from the government,
because the government went to the last election sticking to
this policy particularly and what made that interesting was farmers,
small businesses, everyone complaining about unrealized gains being taxed. So
was it this kind of recent intervention from the Prime
Minister's office that has swayed the treasurer because he was
(03:16):
so set on this thing.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
Yeah, I mean, reading between the lines, it seems that way.
Even though Jim Tarmon's rejected the nation yesterday, it was
a pragmatic decision. I've no idea why they didn't do
this twelve months ago. To be perfectly honest, everyone welcomed it, yes,
the industry welcomed. The Greens didn't welcome it. The Treasury
spokesman for the Greens, Nick mc kim, said the wealthy
had been let off the hook. But you know, I
(03:41):
mean really, and.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
The Greens don't welcome a lot of things, do they?
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Nah? No, I mean they could have made the changes
as they were because they had the Green support in
the Senate. Yeah, but obviously industry and the thing about
this which I just find confusing, they're pragmatic changes. Everyone
from Paul Keating through to industry super funds they all said, yep,
just makes sense in the DIY sector delighted, all that
(04:06):
sort of stuff. But I just don't understand why they
died in the ditch over it previously and now the
backfitt when it's just sensible policy and it.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Also allows everyone to move on right now rather than
just being we've been bogged down in this discussion now
for so long, and it's consumed a great deal of
oxygen and time and attention from everyone. Now it's done
as you say, it should have been done ages ago,
and then we could move on and actually got onto
other things. Right, yep, absolutely, just before we leave Canberra though.
At SEAN, the Australian Federal Police is investigating whether Lydia
(04:39):
Thorpe's comments that she would burn down Parliament House whether
that broke any laws.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yesterday, the Independent Senator said she didn't mean the comments literally.
She made them at a pro Palestinian rally on Sunday.
She's been widely condemned by the Government, National Party and
plenty of others.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Now Sean turning to an overseas sorry, this is one
that has been everywhere. Over the last twenty four hours.
Israeli hostages held captive by Hamas for two years have
been released to cheers, tears, enormous relief for waiting families.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
That's right. Hamas earlier in the day had published a
list of twenty names of the people to be released
that matched the list of hostages believed to be alive.
Hammas also published a list of more than nineteen hundred
Palestinian prisoners, it said would be released as part of
the ceasefire agreement. It began yesterday afternoon Australian time, at
about five pm. You know, I mean, it's great scenes
(05:34):
that the emotion coming through the exchange is the first
stage of a plan put forward by Donald Trump, though
Israel and Hamas have it to agree to the second
phase of the plan, which is designed to bring about
a permanent end to the fighting. It calls for the
disarmament of Hamas, the staggered withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza,
and the deployment of international stabilization forces in the Strip.
(05:57):
US President Donald Trump will make a brief visit to
the region and then take part in a peace summit
in Egypt. Others. There will be leaders from the UK, France, Turkey, Spain,
EU UN officials.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
All right, let's take a quick look at local markets.
How did things go yesterday?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
The s and PASX two hundred fell nearly one percent
to eighty eight hundred and eighty three points, and a
pretty rough day for the markets. The tech sector led
the slide, with sharp falls in weistech Live three sixty,
computer share Energy also weighed despite a rally in oil
prices through The big four banks were lower commoneth Bank
with down nearly two percent. Commodity stocks bucked the trend, though,
(06:35):
as gold hit another new high this time of and
I'm talking US dollars here, four thousand and fifty nine
dollars and thirty cents. Don't forget the thirty cents. Regis Resources, Newmont,
and Evolution Mining all surged. Same deal with silver. It's
trading near record levels and silver miners did well. Some
silver jump twenty percent yesterday. Now, there was a bit
(06:56):
of news on that one. It's kind of interesting. It
was asked to provide an update on its Maverick Springs
investments in the United States ahead of the meeting between
Trump and Prime Minister Anthony Albernizi. So you know, when
the government comes and says, hey, can you provide an
update on your Maverick Springs investments in the US because
(07:16):
that might be something that Donald Trump and Anthony Alberanezi
want to talk about. Well, good kick along for the
share price, Michael, very good kicklong.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Have you ever heard a more American name though than
Maverick Springs. It's great for a.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Silver process silver mind. Yeah, it's great, just quickly. Rare
Earth's mind has also extended gains after Trump revived the
trade war against Beijing. Shares in Linus broke a fourteen
year high and since July have more than doubled.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Okay, plenty still to come. We'll be back in a
moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean
A and Zed's share price jumped three point three percent yesterday,
very much going against the trend. After a new CEO,
Nuno Mattos, laid out aggressive targets to reduce costs and
(08:05):
really lift performance at the bank.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
In fact, the bank share price at a ten year high.
Mattos said he'll challenge staff and force accountability and help
win back market share. He puts some hard numbers on
his strategy, which is always good. He wants to reduce
amz's cost to income ratio, which is effectively a measure
of efficiency and profitability, from about fifty two percent now
to forty percent or mid forty percent, sorry, not forty percent,
(08:27):
mid forty percent by twenty twenty eight. That's significant because
mid forty percent is basically best of breed. It's a
level Commonwealth bank is that So what he's saying is
we want to get to that Commonwealth Bank level. When
it comes to cost to income ratios, how do.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
They do that?
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Cut headcount? That's a bit City Lovan. They've already now
the three thirty five hundred staff will lose their jobs.
And if you think of cost to income, a big
cost is staff. So you get that lower that helps.
Matos said he had structured his twenty thirty plan frames
at around four strategic pillars customer first, simplicity, resilience, and
(09:06):
delivering value. As part of focusing on customer needs, Mattos
said he'll boost mortgage lenders in its branches by up
to fifty percent, hire more business and private bankers to
improved service. I think we heard that from Westpac, didn't
we a few weeks we did, Yes, very very It's
interesting these banks so come off bank definitely, Westpac definitely,
(09:26):
a and Zed definitely. They really are sort of pushing
their own channels, their own digital channels. They don't want
to rely on mortgage brokers as much as they do. Mean,
mortgage brokers write seventy five percent of home loans. Yet
we've heard from three of the four majors that they
actually want to come off the mortgage broker teat and
(09:48):
do it themselves. Interesting, they're all going the same.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Way, alarmingly. The only thing I think I'm left with
as a lasting image, Sean, is the idea.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Of the mortgage breaker teat, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
I'd not leave that one there. Penfolds own a Treasury
Winer States share price, how about this? Tumbled fifteen percent yesterday.
Shoker over Day is off more than fifty percent now
over the past year after it pulled its full year
profit guidance because of weaker than expected trading in China
for its flagship brand and also trouble with the distributor
(10:24):
handover in the United States.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
So yesterday we spoke about how well Penfolds sales are
doing in Australia. Absolute opposite side, opposite story offshore with
a new CEO due to start in a fortnite. Treasury,
in a statement to the A six said sales China
were lower than expected. It also temporarily halted its two
hundred million dollars share buyback and dropped its previous earnings
guidance for Penfolds. It's a company in pain at the moment.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Yeah, certainly, is now Two separate federal court challenges have
been launched against the Albanese government's decision to extend the
life of Woodside's major Northwest Shelf gas project. This was
probably always going to.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Happen, right yeah. Friends of Australian rock Art in the
Australian Conservation Foundation will both challenge the government's move to
allow the gas processing facility to keep operating until twenty seventy.
It's the latest in the string of legal challenges to
the West Australian facility, which opponents warn will contribute to
the degradation of precious indigenous rock art and release massive
amounts of air pollution.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Turning to international news, now, US banks Sean are set
for an unprecedented easing of capital rules, which new research
suggests could unlock two point six trillion dollars in lending
capacity and increase pressure on regulators elsewhere, including Australia. Really
to follow.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Suit, Okay, pointy headed, but relevant. Stay with me on
this one, Michael, and important.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
I love the draft to give a warning that this
one's going to get a bit technical, but no, thank you,
thank you.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
The White House has said it would dilute rules governing
US banks effectively meaning they'll have more money and ability
to lend. So sincetall Trump's return to the White House,
US authorities have embraced a much more bank friendly approach,
committing to loosen many of the rules that forced banks
to increase their loss absorbing capital buffers after the GFC
(12:13):
back in two thousand and eight. Now to understand this, Michael,
think about the Australian banks and the fact that the
local regulator APRA forces them to judge home loans on
whether or borrow or campaigning intestrate three percent above the
current rate. And we've talked a lot about that, and
as interest rates have moved up, that three percent has remained.
(12:33):
So you know people can't borrow money necessarily. Well that's
the sort of rule that would be dropped in the US.
So that's what we're talking about, okay. And so if
you drop those rules, the banks, not only do they
have to put set less money aside, they have actually
got the ability to give loans to people that they
think are worth it.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
So with me, would some of these changes then potentially
also be you know how a lot of the increased
restrictions were what then led to the rise of private
credit as well. Could reducing restrictions on lending rules for
banks perhaps have an impact then on the growth of
(13:16):
the private credit space.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Michael, what an excellent question. You know. It's like when
you ask chat GPT something they say, well, very good question.
You feel good about yourself, same deal. That is a
cracking question because it means that banks will become more
competitive against private credit. Excellent, well done. What it will
do is that these big Wall Street banks, it will
(13:38):
sort of reinforce their dominant position I think, and you
know when it comes to stuff like AI and data
centers where there's masses of money needed, it's likely that
they'll become much more competitive in that area and more
competitive against the private credit guys too.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
Okay, all right, finally, Sean, we need to talk about running.
A boom in running spurred on by covid and gen
Z's and gen X's as well. Everyone really everyone wanting
a healthier lifestyle means exercise app Strava is actually looking
to list on Wall Street.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
So the app, launched in two thousand and nine, currently
valued at two point two billion US, has grown really rapidly,
particularly since the pandemic, when people started combining social networking
with fitness. So I don't know whether you use the app,
but Strava allows you to record and then share workouts,
give cutos to friends. It's kind of like hitting your
(14:35):
Facebook like button. I suppose compare performances with ps and
elite athletes. I compare my performance with my son Charlie,
and it's embarrassing.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
So you're you're on the app.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Yeah, yeah, it's great. Fantastics the exercise track I had
an average of fifty million monthly active uses in twenty
twenty five, close to double that of its closest rival,
gar and Connect. That's according to reporting in the ft
Are you a Walker? Because what really came out of this,
All Trails is an app and it is really good.
(15:10):
As you know, we've spent a lot of time overseas recently,
and All Trails is this app. No matter where you
are in the world, it gives you the walks that
are around the place. I mean, really much more popular
than Nike or add Dassler, any of those ones. So
it's yes, driva garment than All Trails. If you're in
a walking and you haven't got All Trails, get all Trails.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
I digress I was walking the other day, Sean. Apparently
I was walking so slowly that my watch actually said
it looks like you've stopped your workout. I'm still going
thanks anyway.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Anyway, Strava's looking to list because everyone's running more basically,
and it is by far the most popular app there.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
You go, good one to finish on. Up next, Sean
is the Fear and Greed Q and A and Adam
Lang today speaking to Gary Koo and Shelley Horton, who
are from Class and Mortgage Solutions respectively. This one is
really all about property. It is about why Australians love
investing in property so much and what self manage super
funds need to be aware of before investing in it.
(16:12):
It is a really interesting conversation and we've been doing
a lot of work with Classic Night. They we were
the media partner for Classic Nite twenty twenty five and
this is the latest in that series of conversations. It
is coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com. Today
you which is where you sign up for the legendary
daily newsletter that if you are not signing up to that. Honestly,
(16:33):
I don't know what you're doing. It is free and
in your inbox every morning by six am. I'll put
a link in today's show notes. Thank you Sean, Thank
you Michael. It is Tuesday, the fourteenth of October twenty
twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please
join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.
I'm Michael Thompson. And that was Fear and Greed. Have
a great day.
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.
The federal government backflips on superannuation, watering down plans to
increase taxes on balances above three million dollars, her Mass
releases Israeli hostages in the first step of the Middle
East peace Plan. And A and Z's new boss outlines
big changes to the bank strategy, winning plaudits from investors.
(00:27):
Class penfolds owner Treasury Wine estates struggles to sell into China,
and Strava beats all comers in the fitness app race.
It is Tuesday, the fourteenth of October twenty twenty five.
I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
Good morning, Michael. The Fitness one is for you.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
I thought it would have been for you because you
are a notorious runner.
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Notorious I think Adam Laney is a notorious runner more
the occasional runner is how I know.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
I shouldn't toss around terms like notorious and infamous without
actually having grounds to do. So let's get onto the
show today, Sean. We've got some big stories to get through.
The main story this morning, though the federal government has
made major concessions aka backflip. So it's landmark policy to
increase taxation on superannuation balances above three million dollars, including
(01:18):
indexing the threshold, and importantly, as you pointed out even
last week, sparing unrealized gains from the new levy.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yep, I would call this a backflip with Pike. The changes,
which follow an intervention from Prime minis that Anthony Albanezi,
also include a new ten million dollar balance threshold, above
which an extra twenty five percentage points of earning the
tax will apply. What that means is earnings on balances
between three million dollars and ten million dollars. About ninety
(01:47):
thousand people have that. I'll be taxed thirty percent. Anything
over that will effect. There's about eighty thousand people who
have got more than ten million dollars in their super ballance. Well,
they'll be hit with a forty percent tax rate. Federal
treasure Jim Chalmers announced the changes yesterday and said the
new tax regime will begin later than expected, on July
one next year. That will also be a superannuation top
(02:10):
up for low income earners on July one, twenty twenty seven. Now,
that's mainly due to correct a discrepancy caused by the
top up income tax cuts. So we've got the income
tax cuts, but what that meant was about one point
three million low paid workers earning between thirty seven thousand
and forty five thousand would have paid a higher rate
of tax on their SUPER than on their income. So
(02:32):
I'm going to get eight hundred and ten dollars top up.
Low income earners who make less than thirty seven thousand
dollars the same issue for them. Generally, they shouldn't be well,
They certainly shouldn't be paying more tax on their super
than their income tax, so they're going to get a
top up of five hundred dollars. The total costs of
the changes four point two billion dollars over the next
four years and lost earnings.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
I don't know what to make of this because it
is quite the backflip, as we discussed from the government,
because the government went to the last election sticking to
this policy particularly and what made that interesting was farmers,
small businesses, everyone complaining about unrealized gains being taxed. So
was it this kind of recent intervention from the Prime
Minister's office that has swayed the treasurer because he was
(03:16):
so set on this thing.
Speaker 2 (03:18):
Yeah, I mean, reading between the lines, it seems that way.
Even though Jim Tarmon's rejected the nation yesterday, it was
a pragmatic decision. I've no idea why they didn't do
this twelve months ago. To be perfectly honest, everyone welcomed it, yes,
the industry welcomed. The Greens didn't welcome it. The Treasury
spokesman for the Greens, Nick mc kim, said the wealthy
had been let off the hook. But you know, I
(03:41):
mean really, and.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
The Greens don't welcome a lot of things, do they?
Speaker 2 (03:44):
Nah? No, I mean they could have made the changes
as they were because they had the Green support in
the Senate. Yeah, but obviously industry and the thing about
this which I just find confusing, they're pragmatic changes. Everyone
from Paul Keating through to industry super funds they all said, yep,
just makes sense in the DIY sector delighted, all that
(04:06):
sort of stuff. But I just don't understand why they
died in the ditch over it previously and now the
backfitt when it's just sensible policy and it.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
Also allows everyone to move on right now rather than
just being we've been bogged down in this discussion now
for so long, and it's consumed a great deal of
oxygen and time and attention from everyone. Now it's done
as you say, it should have been done ages ago,
and then we could move on and actually got onto
other things. Right, yep, absolutely, just before we leave Canberra though.
At SEAN, the Australian Federal Police is investigating whether Lydia
(04:39):
Thorpe's comments that she would burn down Parliament House whether
that broke any laws.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
Yesterday, the Independent Senator said she didn't mean the comments literally.
She made them at a pro Palestinian rally on Sunday.
She's been widely condemned by the Government, National Party and
plenty of others.
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Now Sean turning to an overseas sorry, this is one
that has been everywhere. Over the last twenty four hours.
Israeli hostages held captive by Hamas for two years have
been released to cheers, tears, enormous relief for waiting families.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
That's right. Hamas earlier in the day had published a
list of twenty names of the people to be released
that matched the list of hostages believed to be alive.
Hammas also published a list of more than nineteen hundred
Palestinian prisoners, it said would be released as part of
the ceasefire agreement. It began yesterday afternoon Australian time, at
about five pm. You know, I mean, it's great scenes
(05:34):
that the emotion coming through the exchange is the first
stage of a plan put forward by Donald Trump, though
Israel and Hamas have it to agree to the second
phase of the plan, which is designed to bring about
a permanent end to the fighting. It calls for the
disarmament of Hamas, the staggered withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza,
and the deployment of international stabilization forces in the Strip.
(05:57):
US President Donald Trump will make a brief visit to
the region and then take part in a peace summit
in Egypt. Others. There will be leaders from the UK, France, Turkey, Spain,
EU UN officials.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
All right, let's take a quick look at local markets.
How did things go yesterday?
Speaker 2 (06:13):
The s and PASX two hundred fell nearly one percent
to eighty eight hundred and eighty three points, and a
pretty rough day for the markets. The tech sector led
the slide, with sharp falls in weistech Live three sixty,
computer share Energy also weighed despite a rally in oil
prices through The big four banks were lower commoneth Bank
with down nearly two percent. Commodity stocks bucked the trend, though,
(06:35):
as gold hit another new high this time of and
I'm talking US dollars here, four thousand and fifty nine
dollars and thirty cents. Don't forget the thirty cents. Regis Resources, Newmont,
and Evolution Mining all surged. Same deal with silver. It's
trading near record levels and silver miners did well. Some
silver jump twenty percent yesterday. Now, there was a bit
(06:56):
of news on that one. It's kind of interesting. It
was asked to provide an update on its Maverick Springs
investments in the United States ahead of the meeting between
Trump and Prime Minister Anthony Albernizi. So you know, when
the government comes and says, hey, can you provide an
update on your Maverick Springs investments in the US because
(07:16):
that might be something that Donald Trump and Anthony Alberanezi
want to talk about. Well, good kick along for the
share price, Michael, very good kicklong.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Have you ever heard a more American name though than
Maverick Springs. It's great for a.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Silver process silver mind. Yeah, it's great, just quickly. Rare
Earth's mind has also extended gains after Trump revived the
trade war against Beijing. Shares in Linus broke a fourteen
year high and since July have more than doubled.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
Okay, plenty still to come. We'll be back in a
moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean
A and Zed's share price jumped three point three percent yesterday,
very much going against the trend. After a new CEO,
Nuno Mattos, laid out aggressive targets to reduce costs and
(08:05):
really lift performance at the bank.
Speaker 2 (08:07):
In fact, the bank share price at a ten year high.
Mattos said he'll challenge staff and force accountability and help
win back market share. He puts some hard numbers on
his strategy, which is always good. He wants to reduce
amz's cost to income ratio, which is effectively a measure
of efficiency and profitability, from about fifty two percent now
to forty percent or mid forty percent, sorry, not forty percent,
(08:27):
mid forty percent by twenty twenty eight. That's significant because
mid forty percent is basically best of breed. It's a
level Commonwealth bank is that So what he's saying is
we want to get to that Commonwealth Bank level. When
it comes to cost to income ratios, how do.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
They do that?
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Cut headcount? That's a bit City Lovan. They've already now
the three thirty five hundred staff will lose their jobs.
And if you think of cost to income, a big
cost is staff. So you get that lower that helps.
Matos said he had structured his twenty thirty plan frames
at around four strategic pillars customer first, simplicity, resilience, and
(09:06):
delivering value. As part of focusing on customer needs, Mattos
said he'll boost mortgage lenders in its branches by up
to fifty percent, hire more business and private bankers to
improved service. I think we heard that from Westpac, didn't
we a few weeks we did, Yes, very very It's
interesting these banks so come off bank definitely, Westpac definitely,
(09:26):
a and Zed definitely. They really are sort of pushing
their own channels, their own digital channels. They don't want
to rely on mortgage brokers as much as they do. Mean,
mortgage brokers write seventy five percent of home loans. Yet
we've heard from three of the four majors that they
actually want to come off the mortgage broker teat and
(09:48):
do it themselves. Interesting, they're all going the same.
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Way, alarmingly. The only thing I think I'm left with
as a lasting image, Sean, is the idea.
Speaker 2 (09:58):
Of the mortgage breaker teat, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (10:02):
I'd not leave that one there. Penfolds own a Treasury
Winer States share price, how about this? Tumbled fifteen percent yesterday.
Shoker over Day is off more than fifty percent now
over the past year after it pulled its full year
profit guidance because of weaker than expected trading in China
for its flagship brand and also trouble with the distributor
(10:24):
handover in the United States.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
So yesterday we spoke about how well Penfolds sales are
doing in Australia. Absolute opposite side, opposite story offshore with
a new CEO due to start in a fortnite. Treasury,
in a statement to the A six said sales China
were lower than expected. It also temporarily halted its two
hundred million dollars share buyback and dropped its previous earnings
guidance for Penfolds. It's a company in pain at the moment.
Speaker 1 (10:49):
Yeah, certainly, is now Two separate federal court challenges have
been launched against the Albanese government's decision to extend the
life of Woodside's major Northwest Shelf gas project. This was
probably always going to.
Speaker 2 (11:02):
Happen, right yeah. Friends of Australian rock Art in the
Australian Conservation Foundation will both challenge the government's move to
allow the gas processing facility to keep operating until twenty seventy.
It's the latest in the string of legal challenges to
the West Australian facility, which opponents warn will contribute to
the degradation of precious indigenous rock art and release massive
amounts of air pollution.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Turning to international news, now, US banks Sean are set
for an unprecedented easing of capital rules, which new research
suggests could unlock two point six trillion dollars in lending
capacity and increase pressure on regulators elsewhere, including Australia. Really
to follow.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Suit, Okay, pointy headed, but relevant. Stay with me on
this one, Michael, and important.
Speaker 1 (11:46):
I love the draft to give a warning that this
one's going to get a bit technical, but no, thank you,
thank you.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
The White House has said it would dilute rules governing
US banks effectively meaning they'll have more money and ability
to lend. So sincetall Trump's return to the White House,
US authorities have embraced a much more bank friendly approach,
committing to loosen many of the rules that forced banks
to increase their loss absorbing capital buffers after the GFC
(12:13):
back in two thousand and eight. Now to understand this, Michael,
think about the Australian banks and the fact that the
local regulator APRA forces them to judge home loans on
whether or borrow or campaigning intestrate three percent above the
current rate. And we've talked a lot about that, and
as interest rates have moved up, that three percent has remained.
(12:33):
So you know people can't borrow money necessarily. Well that's
the sort of rule that would be dropped in the US.
So that's what we're talking about, okay. And so if
you drop those rules, the banks, not only do they
have to put set less money aside, they have actually
got the ability to give loans to people that they
think are worth it.
Speaker 1 (12:54):
So with me, would some of these changes then potentially
also be you know how a lot of the increased
restrictions were what then led to the rise of private
credit as well. Could reducing restrictions on lending rules for
banks perhaps have an impact then on the growth of
(13:16):
the private credit space.
Speaker 2 (13:18):
Michael, what an excellent question. You know. It's like when
you ask chat GPT something they say, well, very good question.
You feel good about yourself, same deal. That is a
cracking question because it means that banks will become more
competitive against private credit. Excellent, well done. What it will
do is that these big Wall Street banks, it will
(13:38):
sort of reinforce their dominant position I think, and you
know when it comes to stuff like AI and data
centers where there's masses of money needed, it's likely that
they'll become much more competitive in that area and more
competitive against the private credit guys too.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
Okay, all right, finally, Sean, we need to talk about running.
A boom in running spurred on by covid and gen
Z's and gen X's as well. Everyone really everyone wanting
a healthier lifestyle means exercise app Strava is actually looking
to list on Wall Street.
Speaker 2 (14:13):
So the app, launched in two thousand and nine, currently
valued at two point two billion US, has grown really rapidly,
particularly since the pandemic, when people started combining social networking
with fitness. So I don't know whether you use the app,
but Strava allows you to record and then share workouts,
give cutos to friends. It's kind of like hitting your
(14:35):
Facebook like button. I suppose compare performances with ps and
elite athletes. I compare my performance with my son Charlie,
and it's embarrassing.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
So you're you're on the app.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
Yeah, yeah, it's great. Fantastics the exercise track I had
an average of fifty million monthly active uses in twenty
twenty five, close to double that of its closest rival,
gar and Connect. That's according to reporting in the ft
Are you a Walker? Because what really came out of this,
All Trails is an app and it is really good.
(15:10):
As you know, we've spent a lot of time overseas recently,
and All Trails is this app. No matter where you
are in the world, it gives you the walks that
are around the place. I mean, really much more popular
than Nike or add Dassler, any of those ones. So
it's yes, driva garment than All Trails. If you're in
a walking and you haven't got All Trails, get all Trails.
Speaker 1 (15:31):
I digress I was walking the other day, Sean. Apparently
I was walking so slowly that my watch actually said
it looks like you've stopped your workout. I'm still going
thanks anyway.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Anyway, Strava's looking to list because everyone's running more basically,
and it is by far the most popular app there.
Speaker 1 (15:52):
You go, good one to finish on. Up next, Sean
is the Fear and Greed Q and A and Adam
Lang today speaking to Gary Koo and Shelley Horton, who
are from Class and Mortgage Solutions respectively. This one is
really all about property. It is about why Australians love
investing in property so much and what self manage super
funds need to be aware of before investing in it.
(16:12):
It is a really interesting conversation and we've been doing
a lot of work with Classic Night. They we were
the media partner for Classic Nite twenty twenty five and
this is the latest in that series of conversations. It
is coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com. Today
you which is where you sign up for the legendary
daily newsletter that if you are not signing up to that. Honestly,
(16:33):
I don't know what you're doing. It is free and
in your inbox every morning by six am. I'll put
a link in today's show notes. Thank you Sean, Thank
you Michael. It is Tuesday, the fourteenth of October twenty
twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please
join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.
I'm Michael Thompson. And that was Fear and Greed. Have
a great day.
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