December 19, 2025 • 20 mins
Sean Aylmer and Michael Thompson take a look at the main business news stories this week, from the government's budget update - a missed opportunity to right the fiscal ship - through to Treasury Wine Estate's shocking year.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed business News.
You can use are Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Good morning Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Sew On our weekend show, it's all about the two
of us each nominating the biggest business story of the week,
the most remarkable business story, a mystery category, and our
favorite story. It is a different show though this week,
in light of last Sunday's terror attack at Bondeou Beach,
this will not be a competition. Instead, we will take
a look at the business stories of the week. Acknowledging
(00:34):
though that the loss of fifteen lives at Bondo is
going to change Australia forever.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Yes, Michael, and our thoughts are with the victims, their families,
everyone affected by last week's tragedy.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
All right, With that in mind, Sean, a focus very
much strictly on business news, the main story of the week.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
What was mostly business news? Michael, I've just you know
at the end there I kind of diverge a little bit,
but we'll see how we go.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
There's been an animal trend this you speaking animal stories
in every day, but go for it.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Give us the biggest one.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
I think the biggest story is my EFO, the mid
year Economic Fiscal Outlook the federal government released. It's basically
it's midyear budget update. Forecast higher inflation, slower economic growth
growth as well as they lift in unemployment. Note none
of that sounds too good, but it's not too bad either. Also,
a lower than forecast deficit thanks to a higher tax
(01:26):
take a surge in taxes on income on companies on
superannuation accounts really was the highlight. Government spending slightly lower
than where it had been forecasts, but it's still running
at about twenty seven percent of GDP over the next
few years. That is close to a forty year high
if you exclude COVID. All in all, solid set of
numbers on the back of a higher tax take. But
(01:49):
it's disappointing that the government is doing little torain in spending. Now. Now,
I mean, now's the time to do it, Michael, because
you're getting all this extra money from tax take. Things
like iron ore prices remain high, commodity prices remain high.
This is when you pull things back and the government's
not doing it.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Yeah, and not to mention the fact they've got a
very large majority that there is an opportunity for big
picture reform here right as well as part of this.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
And there's just Michael, I've never thought that you'd never
sound like Adam Lang.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
I know someone has to represent the reform agenda.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Yeah, Adam's taken off on holidays early, he's skipped out,
and we've given it to Michael Thompson to beat the
reform agenda. Man.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
One of those things to the reform agenda, Man, I
think you just absorb these things by osmosis. The more
you hang around with Adam, the more you start to
care about reform and abolishing one level of government and
fringe benefits, tax and various other bits and pieces. Anyway,
my story, Sean yours, Yes, that was a big one.
My story is perhaps a sign of things to come
(02:58):
when it comes to the economy. Not long ago we
were talking about this surge and consumer confidence. Things were
looking up. Wasn't everything rosy? We were also happy interest
rates for coming down. We were expecting them to kind
of keep going, maybe next year. Then we had that
spike in inflation, talk of great hikes. Now consumer confidence
has tumbled once again. There are more pessimists than optimists.
(03:21):
We are a miserable bunch, as you've described us on
many many occasions, now, Sean, this is according to the
Westpac Melbourne Institute survey. And as you pointed out through
the week, if consumers are confident, we tend to spend
more money, which has a beneficial effect more broadly on
economic growth. The survey also suggests, perhaps worryingly, that the
(03:42):
cost of living crisis is.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Not over nowhere near over.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
With a drop in people saying that it's a good
time to buy major household items or houses themselves, things
Sean are looking grim once more, without being without being
too miserable about it. But I mean it's not looking great,
is it.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
No? Consumer confidence has certainly maybe we should say, spiked
and has come back rather than those died from last month.
Whichever way, miserable bunch of people out there.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Look, I'm going to count myself among them as a
man of the people. If the people are miserable, so
am I, Sean. Let's go to most remarkable business story
this week? Shall I nominate one?
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Here? Go for it and look, I reckon.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I mentioned Elon Musk on this show more than is
reasonable and more more than I probably should. But I'm
doing it again this week, because it's been a heck
of a week for his businesses, two of them in particular,
SpaceX cruising towards a potential eight hundred storian Yeah, well,
I mean it's at cruising altitude.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Oh yeah, maybe, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Eight hundred billion US dollar IPO potentially next year after
an insight to share sale set the value of the
company at that phenomenal level, which would make it the
largest initial public offering of all time. The reason for
the IBO I need to raise some funds to build
(05:18):
a base on the Moon, of course, obviously, to put
AI data centers in space yes yes, yes, run out
of land here to do it, and to fund the
insane flight rate for the Starship Rocket, which sounds entirely
like Elon Musk wrote all of that himself, right. The
other thing going well for Elon at the moment is
(05:38):
the share price of Tesla, which is obviously the ev
maker that he runs. It hit a new record this week,
giving it a market cap of one point five to
four trillion US dollars, and that's off the back of
driverless cars being tested in Texas, not just self driving,
but nobody at all on board, no one there to
grab the wheel in an emergency. This is a big
(06:00):
step takes Tesla closer to that robo taxi dream.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
It is a remarkable week for Elon Musk, totally remarkable
week for Eeline Musk's a remarkable week for Meg O'Neil. Oh. Yeah,
she is the chief executive officer of Woodside Energy, the
ASX listed oil and gas giant. Well, she's just got
the top job at global major BP. Apparently her track
(06:29):
record of driving transformation, growth and discipline capital allocation makes
her the right leader. That's according to the chair of BP,
the beautifully named Albert Manifold.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
That is a great That is a great.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Name, isn't it now? I said during the week the
CEO I have always wanted to meet. Is Meg O'Neill
running an oil and gas company? You know, a female
running an oil and gas company. It can't be easy
from a range of standpoints. Environment number one, government policy
number two, plus the normal employment relations, capital allocation, all
(07:07):
that sort of stuff. I'd just like to know what
makes her tick. Now she has got this job running VP,
which is about you know what, what's the equivalent BP
in media land? It's probably like running the New York
Times in technology is probably like running in Video or
Tesla or somewhere like that.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
In TV Land, it's like running seven, nine, ten and
ABC altogether maybe yes, yep, something like that. You get
the gist.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
The sale of this is it is, It is huge.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
It is one of the prime gigs, right.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
First female, first outsider to lead BP in its one
hundred and sixteen year history. It put I mean you
mentioned Tesla, so Robin Denholm is the chair of Tesla,
So she's an Australian, but she's not running the business,
so I don't think she kind of makes the great
of course, Rupert Murdoch, he's probably the greatest Australian leader,
went and recreated the media guy called Andrew Levers Rendow Chemicals.
(08:10):
He's done a lot of work for the government in
more recent years. Charlie Bell a lovely man. He unfortunately died.
He was running McDonald's globally at the time out of
Chicago and he passed away. But you know, sort of
this put Meg O'Neil in that sort of echelon with
those types of people.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
I think Robin dan Home needs additional credit though, for
having having to manage Elon Musk the unmanageable.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Right, Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
Goodness as it is, Meg O'Neill. That is a great story,
and what an incredible job to take on, especially at
this time in history as well. Like it is, it
is an interesting sector to be working in, a tough
to be working in. But if anyone can do it,
mego o' neil can do it. So I'm excited for
(09:04):
that one. Okay, let's take a quick break and we
will come back with a mystery category and then what
I'm sure is going to be an animal story to sure,
knowing that that you have been following this week.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Okay, back in a.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Second, Sean, we are looking now for our mystery category.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
This is it is quite a good one.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
These are stocks that you thought were good at the
beginning of the year, but by the end you really wish.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
You hadn't held them.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Yes, yeah, a couple of good options here.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Why don't you like?
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Well, I reckon at the beginning of the year, I
thought ASEX couldn't get any worse. It had been a horror.
Well I was totally wrong. Down twenty two percent this year.
Let's hope we're coming to an end of the problems.
Though I'm not exactually throwing my money at it. This week,
ASSEIC and AX have agreed to a strategic package Action
(10:06):
of Action designed to improve confidence in the AX. It
came after an inquiry by ASEK, which calls for stronger
independence and governance at the group, an extra one hundred
and fifty million dollar capital charge, and a commitment to
strong leadership. ASEX will also be forced to reset its
long running Accelerate Transformation project. So what that is all
(10:28):
about is upgrading bringing the AX into the twenty twenties.
It has had all sorts of problems, particularly around technology.
Its settlement infrastructure has really failed. There's been outages, ongoing
delays and errors with its back end systems. The previously
planned blockchain based replacement for Chess, which is the big
black box that you buy and sell a share. Someone
(10:51):
has to do all that work that's a Chess system. Well,
that replacement was canceled after years of delays, costly write
offs and technical failures. All this is costing AX money.
Of course, sentiments against the company. Not much going right
for the AX year a horror year in one which
at the beginning of the year I thought I SX
beer right well, totally wrong, down twenty two percent. Let's
(11:14):
hope for them it will get better. We're not an
investment podcast, clearly because I would have bought ax Limited
twelve months ago look what happened. So clearly not an
investment podcast.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Yep, yep, yep.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Get qualified advice from someone from someone in the course.
So the the other one is Treasury Wine estates. This
time last year looking too things weren't looking too bad,
right because the sector was recovering in China, for instance,
(11:48):
after COVID and after all of the tariff dramas with China,
and everything was looking at it was looking okay. No,
not this year. This has not been Treasuries year. The
owner of penfolds having an absolute shocker. It's down what
fifty eight percent or so over the past year. A
(12:12):
sharper than expected slow down in global wine demand is
hitting it hard, and now it's having to rain in
its expansion in China, which I just mentioned, and in
the US, these are two of its biggest markets. Earnings
in the US in particular were below market expectations by
more than fifty percent, and now it's having to take
(12:33):
the pretty extraordinary step of cutting shipments of seven hundred
thousand cases of wine across those two markets in an
effort to stabilize prices. This is a wine crisis, Sean,
and it has smashed Treasury this year, and it is
on track to perhaps win the title of worst performing
(12:58):
ASX two hundred for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
I don't know that it's on track. I think we
can pretty much say it's there.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Yeah, I'm trying to just give it a little bit
of a glimmer of hope, a little bit a little
bit of optimism that things might turn around in the
next I don't know, ten days or so, but it's
not looking good, and I suspect that it is. It
will be receiving that award, which is a gong that
no company wants to receive, and now is hoping to
a better twenty twenty six for Treasury Wine or states.
(13:27):
Let's do our favorite story, Straw. You know what, I'll
go first on this one because I know that you're
gonna you're gonna have a really a feel good animal.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Story to finish on.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
But I want to mention two things out of the
White House this week.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Right.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wilds gave her a
series of arguably unusually frank interviews to Vanity Fair. Because
she doesn't normally speak publicly, she doesn't give interviews.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
She's the first woman to hold the role.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
But in these interviews, as she said, a bunch of things,
President Donald Trump is using his position to settle scores
with opponents and wants regime change in Venezuela. She called
Vice President J. D. Vance a conspiracy theorist, probably accurate.
Budget Chief Russell Vaught is a right wing zealot. Elon
(14:23):
Musk is an odd, odd duck. Well, that's not news. No,
she'd probably just say what everyone's thinking. She said that
there were internal disagreements over the trade tariffs and said
that the rollout involved a lot of thinking out loud
and caused more pain than expected. She has since the
(14:44):
article was released. She's described it as a hit piece.
She didn't disagree or dispute the content. I mean, if
you listen to what she said since it, she has
not walked away from saying it. No, and if anything,
she's just given more text around it. And all of
the comments that she made made complete sense, and she
(15:05):
just explained the context. And the thing is the White
House completely backed her on this, and they praised her loyalty,
praised her leadership. It's just extraordinary and a great little
insight and just some fantastic lines, some headlines out of that.
The other thing we need, we need to mention Sean
out of the White House. The President has made another
(15:27):
addition to the Presidential Walk of Fame this week. These
are the portraits of all the former presidents in the
West Wing. We've talked in the past about its previously
replaced Joe Biden's portrait with a picture of the auto
pen that Biden alleged to the used to sign documents. Now,
the president has added plaques underneath each president, dictated by
(15:51):
Donald Trump himself, where he gives his.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
Verdict on their achievements in office.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Yes, yes, And just to give you a taste of it,
Joe Biden's plaque starts with sleepy Joe Biden was by
far the worst president in American history.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
It's nice to see that these plaques are impartial.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
But the thing is, and I'm really conflicted about this
and about a lot of what Donald Trump does, because
the thing is a lot of people voted for him, right,
and he has shown that he is an incredible communicator,
and he has also shown a rem remarkable ability to
get things done. That he has set an agenda and
(16:36):
he has carried it out right. And so love him
or hate him, there are things that he has done
that have shown his capacity as president. Then there are
things like this that feel like they almost undermine the
integrity of the office right, that make it a bit
of a laughing stock, And I just like it causes
(16:58):
great internal conflict within me.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Democracy is not the winner, Michael, Democracy is not the winner.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
Did you see the latest was that the Kennedy Center
board the performing Arts Center is moving to the board
is moving to rename it the Trump Kennedy Center. Now
in the US, it is just the stories every day
out of the US.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Extraordinary, extraordinary. Can I move on to something a little nicer?
Speaker 3 (17:31):
Yes? Please?
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Polar bears ah my favorite stories. Researches tracking wild polar
bears in Northern Canada have witnessed something extremely rare, a
mother bear adopting a cub, as in she didn't give
birth to it, not biologically her own. The five year
old mother bear was wandering around with two ten or
(17:52):
eleven month old cubs, one was an adoptee. One was not.
They know this because they had tagged the mum six
month or about six months earlier, had tagged the mum,
and the cub knew she only had one cub. Six
months later she appeared with two cubs. About the thirteenth
known case of adoption out of forty six hundred bears
(18:13):
studied for nearly five decades in the area. It was
in the western Hudson Bay near Churchill, Manitoba, well known
for people going up there and looking at polar bears.
So I thought that was beautiful. Mean, a cub has
a fifty percent chance of making it much higher, or
it rises if it's got a mum. So this adopted
this orphan. It's got a mum.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Lovely.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
The other thing is the story about the killer whales
and the dolphins working together, or because the killer whales
they're actually the largest known dolphin. They were cooperating, swimming, hunting, diving,
doing all sorts of things off the coast of British
Columbia in Canada, basically searching for salmon. I think it
was talking to each other, like eavesdropping on each other
(18:58):
and then sharing the spoils of the kill is that
wonderful nature bringing us back to kind of what's important life,
looking after your family, food, stuff like that.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
I have to change your name to Sean Attenborough, the
great wildlife commentator and viewer. This is a would you
ever go on a bird watching tour? It feels like
theother thing that you are kind of inching towards.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Don't you think that would be the dullest thing possible,
a bird watching tour? I know you want to go
on one.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
No, I'm not rolling it out at some point in
the future. No I don't.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
I'm I'm just keeping an open mind that I'm not
even forty yet.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Give it time, yep.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
I could get to myself.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
You'll be out there bird watching.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
You could be a notorious twitcher, is all right?
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Sean? Thank you very much, goodbye. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Michael, make sure you're following the podcast. I'm Michael, Tom
out Fear and Greed. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Bird watches. They're twitches, aren't they?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
They are now yeah ah
This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed business News.
You can use are Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Good morning Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Sew On our weekend show, it's all about the two
of us each nominating the biggest business story of the week,
the most remarkable business story, a mystery category, and our
favorite story. It is a different show though this week,
in light of last Sunday's terror attack at Bondeou Beach,
this will not be a competition. Instead, we will take
a look at the business stories of the week. Acknowledging
(00:34):
though that the loss of fifteen lives at Bondo is
going to change Australia forever.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Yes, Michael, and our thoughts are with the victims, their families,
everyone affected by last week's tragedy.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
All right, With that in mind, Sean, a focus very
much strictly on business news, the main story of the week.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
What was mostly business news? Michael, I've just you know
at the end there I kind of diverge a little bit,
but we'll see how we go.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
There's been an animal trend this you speaking animal stories
in every day, but go for it.
Speaker 3 (01:04):
Give us the biggest one.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
I think the biggest story is my EFO, the mid
year Economic Fiscal Outlook the federal government released. It's basically
it's midyear budget update. Forecast higher inflation, slower economic growth
growth as well as they lift in unemployment. Note none
of that sounds too good, but it's not too bad either. Also,
a lower than forecast deficit thanks to a higher tax
(01:26):
take a surge in taxes on income on companies on
superannuation accounts really was the highlight. Government spending slightly lower
than where it had been forecasts, but it's still running
at about twenty seven percent of GDP over the next
few years. That is close to a forty year high
if you exclude COVID. All in all, solid set of
numbers on the back of a higher tax take. But
(01:49):
it's disappointing that the government is doing little torain in spending. Now. Now,
I mean, now's the time to do it, Michael, because
you're getting all this extra money from tax take. Things
like iron ore prices remain high, commodity prices remain high.
This is when you pull things back and the government's
not doing it.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Yeah, and not to mention the fact they've got a
very large majority that there is an opportunity for big
picture reform here right as well as part of this.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
And there's just Michael, I've never thought that you'd never
sound like Adam Lang.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
I know someone has to represent the reform agenda.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Yeah, Adam's taken off on holidays early, he's skipped out,
and we've given it to Michael Thompson to beat the
reform agenda. Man.
Speaker 1 (02:37):
One of those things to the reform agenda, Man, I
think you just absorb these things by osmosis. The more
you hang around with Adam, the more you start to
care about reform and abolishing one level of government and
fringe benefits, tax and various other bits and pieces. Anyway,
my story, Sean yours, Yes, that was a big one.
My story is perhaps a sign of things to come
(02:58):
when it comes to the economy. Not long ago we
were talking about this surge and consumer confidence. Things were
looking up. Wasn't everything rosy? We were also happy interest
rates for coming down. We were expecting them to kind
of keep going, maybe next year. Then we had that
spike in inflation, talk of great hikes. Now consumer confidence
has tumbled once again. There are more pessimists than optimists.
(03:21):
We are a miserable bunch, as you've described us on
many many occasions, now, Sean, this is according to the
Westpac Melbourne Institute survey. And as you pointed out through
the week, if consumers are confident, we tend to spend
more money, which has a beneficial effect more broadly on
economic growth. The survey also suggests, perhaps worryingly, that the
(03:42):
cost of living crisis is.
Speaker 3 (03:43):
Not over nowhere near over.
Speaker 1 (03:45):
With a drop in people saying that it's a good
time to buy major household items or houses themselves, things
Sean are looking grim once more, without being without being
too miserable about it. But I mean it's not looking great,
is it.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
No? Consumer confidence has certainly maybe we should say, spiked
and has come back rather than those died from last month.
Whichever way, miserable bunch of people out there.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
Look, I'm going to count myself among them as a
man of the people. If the people are miserable, so
am I, Sean. Let's go to most remarkable business story
this week? Shall I nominate one?
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Here? Go for it and look, I reckon.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
I mentioned Elon Musk on this show more than is
reasonable and more more than I probably should. But I'm
doing it again this week, because it's been a heck
of a week for his businesses, two of them in particular,
SpaceX cruising towards a potential eight hundred storian Yeah, well,
I mean it's at cruising altitude.
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Oh yeah, maybe, I don't know.
Speaker 1 (04:54):
Eight hundred billion US dollar IPO potentially next year after
an insight to share sale set the value of the
company at that phenomenal level, which would make it the
largest initial public offering of all time. The reason for
the IBO I need to raise some funds to build
(05:18):
a base on the Moon, of course, obviously, to put
AI data centers in space yes yes, yes, run out
of land here to do it, and to fund the
insane flight rate for the Starship Rocket, which sounds entirely
like Elon Musk wrote all of that himself, right. The
other thing going well for Elon at the moment is
(05:38):
the share price of Tesla, which is obviously the ev
maker that he runs. It hit a new record this week,
giving it a market cap of one point five to
four trillion US dollars, and that's off the back of
driverless cars being tested in Texas, not just self driving,
but nobody at all on board, no one there to
grab the wheel in an emergency. This is a big
(06:00):
step takes Tesla closer to that robo taxi dream.
Speaker 2 (06:05):
It is a remarkable week for Elon Musk, totally remarkable
week for Eeline Musk's a remarkable week for Meg O'Neil. Oh. Yeah,
she is the chief executive officer of Woodside Energy, the
ASX listed oil and gas giant. Well, she's just got
the top job at global major BP. Apparently her track
(06:29):
record of driving transformation, growth and discipline capital allocation makes
her the right leader. That's according to the chair of BP,
the beautifully named Albert Manifold.
Speaker 3 (06:43):
That is a great That is a great.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Name, isn't it now? I said during the week the
CEO I have always wanted to meet. Is Meg O'Neill
running an oil and gas company? You know, a female
running an oil and gas company. It can't be easy
from a range of standpoints. Environment number one, government policy
number two, plus the normal employment relations, capital allocation, all
(07:07):
that sort of stuff. I'd just like to know what
makes her tick. Now she has got this job running VP,
which is about you know what, what's the equivalent BP
in media land? It's probably like running the New York
Times in technology is probably like running in Video or
Tesla or somewhere like that.
Speaker 3 (07:25):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
In TV Land, it's like running seven, nine, ten and
ABC altogether maybe yes, yep, something like that. You get
the gist.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
The sale of this is it is, It is huge.
Speaker 1 (07:42):
It is one of the prime gigs, right.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
First female, first outsider to lead BP in its one
hundred and sixteen year history. It put I mean you
mentioned Tesla, so Robin Denholm is the chair of Tesla,
So she's an Australian, but she's not running the business,
so I don't think she kind of makes the great
of course, Rupert Murdoch, he's probably the greatest Australian leader,
went and recreated the media guy called Andrew Levers Rendow Chemicals.
(08:10):
He's done a lot of work for the government in
more recent years. Charlie Bell a lovely man. He unfortunately died.
He was running McDonald's globally at the time out of
Chicago and he passed away. But you know, sort of
this put Meg O'Neil in that sort of echelon with
those types of people.
Speaker 1 (08:31):
I think Robin dan Home needs additional credit though, for
having having to manage Elon Musk the unmanageable.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Right, Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
Goodness as it is, Meg O'Neill. That is a great story,
and what an incredible job to take on, especially at
this time in history as well. Like it is, it
is an interesting sector to be working in, a tough
to be working in. But if anyone can do it,
mego o' neil can do it. So I'm excited for
(09:04):
that one. Okay, let's take a quick break and we
will come back with a mystery category and then what
I'm sure is going to be an animal story to sure,
knowing that that you have been following this week.
Speaker 3 (09:18):
Okay, back in a.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Second, Sean, we are looking now for our mystery category.
Speaker 3 (09:30):
This is it is quite a good one.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
These are stocks that you thought were good at the
beginning of the year, but by the end you really wish.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
You hadn't held them.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Yes, yeah, a couple of good options here.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
Why don't you like?
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Well, I reckon at the beginning of the year, I
thought ASEX couldn't get any worse. It had been a horror.
Well I was totally wrong. Down twenty two percent this year.
Let's hope we're coming to an end of the problems.
Though I'm not exactually throwing my money at it. This week,
ASSEIC and AX have agreed to a strategic package Action
(10:06):
of Action designed to improve confidence in the AX. It
came after an inquiry by ASEK, which calls for stronger
independence and governance at the group, an extra one hundred
and fifty million dollar capital charge, and a commitment to
strong leadership. ASEX will also be forced to reset its
long running Accelerate Transformation project. So what that is all
(10:28):
about is upgrading bringing the AX into the twenty twenties.
It has had all sorts of problems, particularly around technology.
Its settlement infrastructure has really failed. There's been outages, ongoing
delays and errors with its back end systems. The previously
planned blockchain based replacement for Chess, which is the big
black box that you buy and sell a share. Someone
(10:51):
has to do all that work that's a Chess system. Well,
that replacement was canceled after years of delays, costly write
offs and technical failures. All this is costing AX money.
Of course, sentiments against the company. Not much going right
for the AX year a horror year in one which
at the beginning of the year I thought I SX
beer right well, totally wrong, down twenty two percent. Let's
(11:14):
hope for them it will get better. We're not an
investment podcast, clearly because I would have bought ax Limited
twelve months ago look what happened. So clearly not an
investment podcast.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Yep, yep, yep.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
Get qualified advice from someone from someone in the course.
So the the other one is Treasury Wine estates. This
time last year looking too things weren't looking too bad,
right because the sector was recovering in China, for instance,
(11:48):
after COVID and after all of the tariff dramas with China,
and everything was looking at it was looking okay. No,
not this year. This has not been Treasuries year. The
owner of penfolds having an absolute shocker. It's down what
fifty eight percent or so over the past year. A
(12:12):
sharper than expected slow down in global wine demand is
hitting it hard, and now it's having to rain in
its expansion in China, which I just mentioned, and in
the US, these are two of its biggest markets. Earnings
in the US in particular were below market expectations by
more than fifty percent, and now it's having to take
(12:33):
the pretty extraordinary step of cutting shipments of seven hundred
thousand cases of wine across those two markets in an
effort to stabilize prices. This is a wine crisis, Sean,
and it has smashed Treasury this year, and it is
on track to perhaps win the title of worst performing
(12:58):
ASX two hundred for twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (13:01):
I don't know that it's on track. I think we
can pretty much say it's there.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Yeah, I'm trying to just give it a little bit
of a glimmer of hope, a little bit a little
bit of optimism that things might turn around in the
next I don't know, ten days or so, but it's
not looking good, and I suspect that it is. It
will be receiving that award, which is a gong that
no company wants to receive, and now is hoping to
a better twenty twenty six for Treasury Wine or states.
(13:27):
Let's do our favorite story, Straw. You know what, I'll
go first on this one because I know that you're
gonna you're gonna have a really a feel good animal.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
Story to finish on.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
But I want to mention two things out of the
White House this week.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Right.
Speaker 1 (13:44):
White House Chief of Staff Susie Wilds gave her a
series of arguably unusually frank interviews to Vanity Fair. Because
she doesn't normally speak publicly, she doesn't give interviews.
Speaker 3 (13:56):
She's the first woman to hold the role.
Speaker 1 (13:58):
But in these interviews, as she said, a bunch of things,
President Donald Trump is using his position to settle scores
with opponents and wants regime change in Venezuela. She called
Vice President J. D. Vance a conspiracy theorist, probably accurate.
Budget Chief Russell Vaught is a right wing zealot. Elon
(14:23):
Musk is an odd, odd duck. Well, that's not news. No,
she'd probably just say what everyone's thinking. She said that
there were internal disagreements over the trade tariffs and said
that the rollout involved a lot of thinking out loud
and caused more pain than expected. She has since the
(14:44):
article was released. She's described it as a hit piece.
She didn't disagree or dispute the content. I mean, if
you listen to what she said since it, she has
not walked away from saying it. No, and if anything,
she's just given more text around it. And all of
the comments that she made made complete sense, and she
(15:05):
just explained the context. And the thing is the White
House completely backed her on this, and they praised her loyalty,
praised her leadership. It's just extraordinary and a great little
insight and just some fantastic lines, some headlines out of that.
The other thing we need, we need to mention Sean
out of the White House. The President has made another
(15:27):
addition to the Presidential Walk of Fame this week. These
are the portraits of all the former presidents in the
West Wing. We've talked in the past about its previously
replaced Joe Biden's portrait with a picture of the auto
pen that Biden alleged to the used to sign documents. Now,
the president has added plaques underneath each president, dictated by
(15:51):
Donald Trump himself, where he gives his.
Speaker 3 (15:54):
Verdict on their achievements in office.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
Yes, yes, And just to give you a taste of it,
Joe Biden's plaque starts with sleepy Joe Biden was by
far the worst president in American history.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
It's nice to see that these plaques are impartial.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
But the thing is, and I'm really conflicted about this
and about a lot of what Donald Trump does, because
the thing is a lot of people voted for him, right,
and he has shown that he is an incredible communicator,
and he has also shown a rem remarkable ability to
get things done. That he has set an agenda and
(16:36):
he has carried it out right. And so love him
or hate him, there are things that he has done
that have shown his capacity as president. Then there are
things like this that feel like they almost undermine the
integrity of the office right, that make it a bit
of a laughing stock, And I just like it causes
(16:58):
great internal conflict within me.
Speaker 2 (17:01):
Democracy is not the winner, Michael, Democracy is not the winner.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
I don't think so.
Speaker 1 (17:06):
Did you see the latest was that the Kennedy Center
board the performing Arts Center is moving to the board
is moving to rename it the Trump Kennedy Center. Now
in the US, it is just the stories every day
out of the US.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Extraordinary, extraordinary. Can I move on to something a little nicer?
Speaker 3 (17:31):
Yes? Please?
Speaker 2 (17:32):
Polar bears ah my favorite stories. Researches tracking wild polar
bears in Northern Canada have witnessed something extremely rare, a
mother bear adopting a cub, as in she didn't give
birth to it, not biologically her own. The five year
old mother bear was wandering around with two ten or
(17:52):
eleven month old cubs, one was an adoptee. One was not.
They know this because they had tagged the mum six
month or about six months earlier, had tagged the mum,
and the cub knew she only had one cub. Six
months later she appeared with two cubs. About the thirteenth
known case of adoption out of forty six hundred bears
(18:13):
studied for nearly five decades in the area. It was
in the western Hudson Bay near Churchill, Manitoba, well known
for people going up there and looking at polar bears.
So I thought that was beautiful. Mean, a cub has
a fifty percent chance of making it much higher, or
it rises if it's got a mum. So this adopted
this orphan. It's got a mum.
Speaker 3 (18:34):
Lovely.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
The other thing is the story about the killer whales
and the dolphins working together, or because the killer whales
they're actually the largest known dolphin. They were cooperating, swimming, hunting, diving,
doing all sorts of things off the coast of British
Columbia in Canada, basically searching for salmon. I think it
was talking to each other, like eavesdropping on each other
(18:58):
and then sharing the spoils of the kill is that
wonderful nature bringing us back to kind of what's important life,
looking after your family, food, stuff like that.
Speaker 1 (19:10):
I have to change your name to Sean Attenborough, the
great wildlife commentator and viewer. This is a would you
ever go on a bird watching tour? It feels like
theother thing that you are kind of inching towards.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Don't you think that would be the dullest thing possible,
a bird watching tour? I know you want to go
on one.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
No, I'm not rolling it out at some point in
the future. No I don't.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
I'm I'm just keeping an open mind that I'm not
even forty yet.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Give it time, yep.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
I could get to myself.
Speaker 2 (19:47):
You'll be out there bird watching.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
You could be a notorious twitcher, is all right?
Speaker 2 (19:54):
Sean? Thank you very much, goodbye. Thank you.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Michael, make sure you're following the podcast. I'm Michael, Tom
out Fear and Greed. Have a great weekend.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Bird watches. They're twitches, aren't they?
Speaker 2 (20:06):
They are now yeah ah
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