July 5, 2024 • 37 mins
Sean Aylmer and Michael Thompson go head to head on the top business stories of the week, with Adam Lang adjudicating.
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed, daily
business news for people who make their own decisions.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Are Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Aylmer, Good morning, Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Sew On our weekend show all about the two of us,
each nominating what we think is the biggest business story
of the week, the most remarkable business story. We try
and pick out a sleeper story, one that's flying under
the radar a little bit, and then our favorite business stories.
And since it's a competition, we are joined each week
by a judge to pick a winner that judges our
Fear and Greed colleague Adam Lang Adam, good morning.
Speaker 4 (00:36):
Good morning Michael, and good morning Sean.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Morning Adam.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I think after a few rough weeks there, you've come
to the fourth the past couple of weeks, your judging
has improved enormously.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
I just want to let you know that all feedback welcome.
M Well, let's see I go today.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
What are the criteria that you're looking for, Adam? As
we go through those four categories that I've outlined, Yes,
what are you judging us on?
Speaker 4 (01:00):
All right? Me and the audience, I think are looking
for topicality, timeliness, economic impact, subjective bias obviously of each
of us, and melodrama. So swimsuit component there is none yet,
I'm open to suggestion.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
A swimsuit component.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Yeah, it's just like Miss Universe or any one of
those kind of pageants.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Okay, this is an audio mechanism, but yes, don't let
that stand in the way.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Suddenly, when it's just the three of us in the
studio and two of us are in our budgies, it
just gets a little bit uncomfortable. And Adams, they're having
to judge us. What exactly are you judging on? Adam?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
This has gone pear shaped very very quickly this morning.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Let's let's go straight into the biggest story then, shall
we sean?
Speaker 3 (01:50):
What was it for you?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Well, it's not that often that an international story is
the biggest of the week, but just occasionally it is,
and this is one of those weeks. The US political
and legal system is easily the biggest story of the week.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Part one.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
What's happening to the candidacy of President Joe Biden? After
last week's disastrous debate with Challenger Donald Trump. His performance
was so poor there's now a growing line of Democrats
from federal politicians to state governors hinting or outright saying
he shouldn't run. The polls are heading in the wrong
direction for mister Biden, with his age being the biggest challenge.
(02:27):
Media reports, which have been denied, suggests the President himself
actually considered the idea of not running. Part two of
this story. The US Supreme Court ruled the presidents and
ex presidents cannot be charged for things they do as
part of their core duties. The six' to three decision
was made along ideological, lines with the minority liberal judges
(02:48):
releasing an absolutely ferocious alternate. Judgment the decision says presidents
or ex presidents are AND i quote entitled to at
least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts
and QUOTE i like the fact that it's a male there,
too those say his official. Acts the minority decision says
(03:09):
the ruling makes a mockery of the principle that no
man is above the. Law trump quickly took to social, media,
saying in capital, letters of, course big win for our
constitution and.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Democracy proud to be An american.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
President Joe biden said the decision is an abandonment of
a core principle Of american democracy and will Allow Donald
trump self defining power if he's elected In. November he,
Said Donald trump will now be free to ignore the.
Law The Supreme court, decision along With Joe biden's ailing,
fortunes have somewhat Rallied democrats who fear A Donald trump.
(03:41):
Presidency now it isn't totally clear If Joe biden will
run this. YEAR i mean IT'S i think it's very
likely he. Will it is definitely clear that under The
Supreme court, ruling The president of THE, usa whoever that person,
is is incredibly powerful and when undertaking official, acts is
pretty to being immune from the. Law this week has
(04:04):
massive ramifications, political, geopolitical, economic, social legal around the world
for decades to, come not just in THE us but
around the.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
World much bigger Than ray. V.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Wade i'd just like to throw them in there For,
adam much, bigger huge week IN us. Politics, michael did
you see all the reports that were coming. OUT i
mean they've been coming out the whole.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Time then a lot of kind of sources close To
Joe biden talking about kind of the limits on what
he is physically capable of, doing and the fact that
they said that he's only really able to function effectively
between ten am and four, pm and that if he
attends official kind of things or, fundraisers. Etc outside of those,
hours you are much much more likely to get these gaffes.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
And things coming.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Up so, yeah and then apparently he told a room
full of governors that he just needs you get more,
sleep and then he can't do these he can't do
functions after eight o'clock at, night and.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
All this and just all of these kind of.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Things it, Does it just keeps kind of adding to
that momentum against.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Him so, anyway it is a big. Story, sure biggest.
STORY i Think michael is the, way and you've added to.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
It it's a big SO i added to. It so, if, Hey,
adam if he does, win we now share the.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Points don't. Concede i'm not.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Conceding i'm JUST i am hedging my. Bets it's called.
Insurance If sean, WINS i get half the. Points IF i,
win he gets. NONE i have a goal this. Week
i've got a bit of a, goal a change of.
Strategy i'm going to win with short stories this. Week
victory through brevity is my new slogan or In, Latin
victoria perb brever, tartum.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
Breve brever.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Tartum it's that like a ham and cheese. Toasty it
does sound.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Like, that doesn't.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
It and, already already it feels as though you were
robbing me by ability to kind of stick to my
new slogan. Brevertart So sean can waffle on all he
wants about stories happening on the other side of the
world with very limited impact on, us WHEREAS i can
tell you that the big story this week that actually
has a material impact on you and me and the
(06:18):
Everyday rick And connie in the street Is.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Wonnie, yeah does it Get rick And? Connie what's wrong
With bill And? Jane?
Speaker 1 (06:26):
No, WELL i mean Every connie deserves her, day as
Does rick.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
EXACTLY i just Thought i'd change it up with a silent.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Peece don't.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
You don't you ever just say the first thing that
comes into your head sometimes.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Clearly not.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Yes was it brever Tart, Yes victoria Per brevetartam kind
of lost my trainer thought that, anyway what is actually
Affecting rick And connie And steve And Billy joe in
the street is what's happened With house prices over the last,
year because it was of course the start of the
new financial. Year time for reflection over what was a
(07:06):
truly extraordinary year in The australian property market and is
likely to be an extraordinary year. AHEAD a couple of
the stats for, You, ADAM i know that you love.
Stats i'm not going to go into too much detail Because, victoria.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Perp brevertas and all that kind of. Thing, Yes perth
house prices up nearly twenty four percent in one, year
twenty four. Percent you ask any of Our perth listeners
what they care about More Donald trump or a twenty
four percent increase in house, prices AND i can assure
you it is not The. Don brisbane up sixteen, Percent
(07:41):
adelaide fifteen, Percent sydney six, percent dalw And cambra two,
percent well one point three. Percent, these these core logic
figures are hugely. Significant they matter big time because even
though interest rates throughout their highest level in, years property
just keeps on. Going and And, adam do you ever
think that like the Faster michael, talks the louder he,
talks the less value there is in the.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Story, well this is a very high.
Speaker 4 (08:06):
Risk i'm also wondering about the breve tartum.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Bit, Yeah i'm nearly. Done if you stopped.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Interrupting you would allow my brevetartum to, prevail brevitate.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Prevail, yes.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Exactly good news for renters as, well with The domain
quarterly rent report this week showing the lowest growth in
house rents for three or four years for many capital, cities.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
That is spectacularly.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Good news in the midst of a rental, crisis and
the forecast for the rest of the year easing pressure
because we're past the peak of the immigration, boom reducing
demand for. Properties it has been a monster week for
property in this, country for house prices and for. Rents
this is the story of the, people from the men
of the. People that's it. Done all in about twenty.
(08:51):
Seconds you added on about three and a half minutes
because of your.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Interruption, okay it's a lovely experiment in. Brevetartum might need
a little, work a little more, Work.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Sean wins M, Michael dad looked like. That you knew
you had no. Chance that's why you're carrying on so.
Much that's WHY i get half your. Points i'm not.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Worried this is a fabulous victory FOR, Us, sean.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
So house process is hugely. Important it's more of an evolving.
Story this isn't shocking change in the trajectory that we.
Know so there's so much week that needs to be
done and it's vitally, important as you, Say, michael this week,
THOUGH i have to say that the political and legal
stories out of THE, us it's just extraordinary and it
(09:39):
is definitely the biggest story of the. Week so well, Done.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
SHAWN i think that all my badgering About ray.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
V wade over the last couple of years has come,
Finally finally patience.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Evidends, yeah but it won't wipe it out.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Though well the context for new, listeners of. Course so
this is That sean nominated the overturning Of wide as
the biggest, story the most remarkable story when it, happened
And adam ruled against it and says like house prices
or something was the biggest story of the.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Week, well it was a draft, judgment it wasn't the real.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
ONE i, look, YEAH i just don't think i'd try
and justify that.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
DEBARKLE i just love how Long sean can hold on to.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
Something not, really there's plenty of life in this.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
One most remarkable, Story, MICHAEL i think you should go. First, okay,
well most remarkable story for me is a quick one this.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Week really it Is Victoria.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Purprevitartan the most remarkable story in a week full of
somewhat unremarkable stories on a was the Remarkable you, know
it's just it's been one of those weeks right where
you get a story LIKE us, politics and it does
tend to kind of suck the oxygen out of a
lot of other, stuff like everyone suddenly talking about that and,
(10:58):
really but then you know, what then this was a.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Gift it was a little gift in the.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Form a change in, direction a little.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
Gift in the form of The Reserve Bank board minutes.
Right and what was remarkable it was wait for. This
what was remarkable was the remarkable insight that we received
into what The Reserve Bank board is thinking right now
and just how likely it is that we will see
(11:30):
potentially an interest rate hike as soon As, august because
these minutes showed and it was quite a, shock i
think for many to see just how serious they are
about hiking rates if. Needed and one quote in particular stood,
out and of, Course, sean you shared this through the,
week AND i wrote it down AND i THOUGHT i
should put this on my wall because it is that.
(11:50):
Profound the quote was members acknowledged if inflation expectations were
to rise materially from current, levels it could require significantly
higher interest rates to bring inflation back to. Target does
this sound to you like a group of people who
are not serious about raising? Rates it most certainly does.
(12:12):
Not what we have here is a central bank very
very concerned about embedding higher price, expectations and anyone wanting
to know how this, works how inflation expectations can create
that spiral of higher wages and higher. Prices to listen
to our bonus episode Of Ask fear And greed From
thursday And shawing you do a very good job of
going through all of that and explaining all of. That
the bottom, line, though is that the RBA's forecast for
(12:34):
inflation to return to the midpoint to the target band
by mid twenty twenty six is at.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
Risk the inflation.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Numbers this, month of, course of, course will be absolutely
vital to. This but isn't it just? Remarkable And i'm
looking around the studio everyone is nodding in agreement here
that The Reserve bank is absolutely primed to. Act they
are at Def con three right, now and those minutes
this week just how serious they are about the potential
(13:03):
to increase rates should the need.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Arise there you.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Go so it reminds me a story of a story
which my, mother when she was listening to the, show
this is probably six months, ago rang me and, said
your voice sounds. Terrible and mum's ninety three or almost ninety,
three and technology sometimes sort of beats. Her, anyway my
sister happened to be there and said To, mum you
(13:29):
know that you're listening at double speed two?
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Times and, oh, No, DARLING i didn't know.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
That she then apologized and, said, oh your voice sounded
quite nice when you're a normal speed when you were
doing that story, Then, michael it kind of reminded me
of what double speed is.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Like but you weren't at double. Speed you're at single. Speed.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Now i'm at passion. Speed, Sean, HELLO i don't bring.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
That up with my. Mother come on single speed, please goodness.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Me it is a, ferocious efficient speed, Now.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
Sean my most remarkable, Story i'm not sure what. Yours.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
See yours is The Reserve Bank board minutes that, yes
what happens absolutely ah. Well my most remarkable story which
emerged this week is how much the big banks dominate
THE asex two hundred and what that means for. Investors
and they're getting even bigger with the treasure Of Jim
(14:27):
chalmers agreeing to LET a AND z By Sun corps banking.
Business at the end of the financial, year a year
where the market returned eight, percent led by the tech
stocks and The Medians Superannuation Growth fund is forecast to
return nine. Percent my third story in this one story so,
far The Financials index on The moors now represents thirty
one and a half percent of the title market. Capitalization
(14:50):
it creates a massive challenge for anyone investing in THE
asx two hundred because it's now overly reliant on financials
and most of the financials index he made up of
the big four. Banks if the banks have a bad,
year and many think they will because of current relatively high,
valuations then the market will struggle to outperform compare. It
(15:11):
so the next biggest sector is, materials which includes the
big three. Miners it's got about twenty one, percent much
more diverse bunch of. Companies they don't rely just on
the big three, miners like the Financial index relies on
the big three. Banks tech, sector we talk about that
best performing sector last financial, year only accounts for three
point one percent of THE asex two. Hundred the point,
(15:32):
is if you're a passive investor in THE asex two,
hundred your fortunes are going to be tied in part
to the big four. Banks if you're an active, investor
you need to be more wary than ever before of
not holding the, banks or of holding too many of the,
banks because again your fortunes are very much tied to
the fact that we have these monsters in the.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Market there is a recent president for.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
This in the last few YEARS us tech stocks And Wall,
street the big Seven microsoft And, Vidia, Tesla, Amazon, Apple,
meta And google have contributed well over half the performance
of THE s AND p five. Hundred so if you
didn't hold tech stocks Like, nvidia which reminds me this
is story number, seven which reminds me That australians super
underperformed last financial year because it didn't at least for
(16:16):
a while when you were hold End, video therefore struggling
to beat the. Market the fact that if you didn't
hold tech stocks last, year you didn't beat the market
in THE. Us similar sort of deal In, australia very
very tricky for.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Investors do you get a sense.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Of deja vu at, All, Adam it's like it. Doesn't
it just feel to you like a very similar story
might have been the most remarkable story on just pulling
a random Date, saturday the eighth Of, june as, well
not having just gone back and checked the. Record, look
you know, What, sean IF i didn't know, BETTER i
would accuse you of a bit of copying and.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
PASTING i got the material sector in, There i've got
the tech stocks in, There i've got the superinnuation, returns
AND i got every possible Thing july one into that
story except for house, prices which you lost. On it's
actually diversified your portfolio.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Didn't that's, right extremely.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Sensible So sean's analysis is really good and, important and
SO i enjoyed the. Newsletter i've enjoyed listening to. It
and it is staggering that banks dominate so, much nearly
a third of the whole asx two, hundred that's. Amazing
and it is as you've, Described, sean risk it is
(17:29):
an evolving. Story And. Michael the minutes came. Out the
meetings happened a little while, Ago so this tour is
an evolving.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
STORY i think we're both going to get done. Here,
michael it feels like he's.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Going to kick us.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Out, yeah Like i've found two new people to do the.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Show so but look, that.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
The as you, Said, michael the significantly higher rates risk is.
Significant SO i THINK i have to call it a
draw on this. One both remarkable evolutions of. Stories but
CAN i give you a quick. ANECDOTE i got distracted
When michael used the deaf con, system and So i'm
(18:08):
going to reveal a little bit of my working past.
Here is? That? Okay? Yes SO, todayfm fifteen years, Ago
carl San Lanz jackie over on The Breakfast, show AND
i worked with a. COLLEAGUE i won't name him BECAUSE
i haven't saw, permission but they described the situation as,
(18:28):
This When kyle And JACKIE o come on, air it's
like the def con system is in. Place, Adam this
person said to, me so before you, know the midnight
to dawn, shift you've got normal readiness Def con. Five
the moment you get close to five, o'clock deaf gone
four you've got to be above normal. Readiness and then
(18:49):
when it gets, close like to five point forty, five you,
Know kyle's going to come in AND jackieo is going
to come in and they're going to get. Ready that's.
Three you've got to have your air force. Ready and
then when they go, on you are immediately a deaf con.
Too you've got to have everything, ready and the equivalent
is having the armed forces ready to deploy in less
than six. Hours oh my. God so it's just that
(19:12):
Deaf con. Story when you mentioned def was, like oh my,
god it takes me back to that high state of
alert we had to.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Have extraordinary must have been very difficult to work with
people like, that And i'm not talking them as, individuals
but just always on edge that something's going to go
to where you shouldn't go to Where, well live.
Speaker 4 (19:31):
Radio is always like, that but when you have personalities
Like kyle And jackio and their content was so, sharp you,
know in many cases it caused very divided. Opinions so
that state of alert was just so.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
High. Fascinating victoria Perb.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
Brevitatum i'd almost award the most remarkable story To.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
Adam.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
YEAH o thought that was more interesting than either of.
Speaker 3 (19:55):
Ours one zero.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
One i've actually been beaten by the judge at the.
Moment you've been. Beaten you've been beaten by. Atic you'll
be beaten by the.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
Judge goodness to, me hold out hope for the swimsuit.
Category all, right we will take a, break come back
with a sleeper story in a. Moment all, Right, sean
we're looking for a sleeper, story as sleeper, stories of,
course one that's not getting the attention that it, deserves.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
That we feel it.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Deserves that's quite, subjective flying under the radar a little,
bit usually kind of involving kind of probably small companies
that no one's really heard, of that don't make much
impact globally or anything like, that talking about nothing to
do with it.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Whatsoever what's? Yours what's your sleeper?
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Story so there were reports this week that two separate,
Companies saudi's A remco And Abu Dhabi National Oil, co
are considering bidding For, santos the local oil and gas.
Giant now they're both stayed owned To remco AND Adnoc
Abu Dhabi National Oil cos note as, adnock So arenko AND.
(21:04):
Adnoc they've been conducting preliminary evaluations Of santos as a
possible acquisition. Target according To, bloomberg that's not the sleeper part, here.
Right santos basically came out said doesn't comment on market.
Speculation obviously not particularly close to a deal or anything like,
that the new surprise sum, analysts because the deal would
have to go through all sorts of regulatory, hurdles Particularly
(21:25):
Foreign Investment Review board. Hurdles whether we want people from
The Middle east owning our, assets who knows? Where it
is really interesting, though and this is the sleeper, part is.
It it just shows how much movement there is in
the oil and gas, world how MUCH m AND a
activity we can, expect and Woodside, santos beach, energy these
(21:48):
guys In australia are going to be part of. IT
l AND g really and gas are the, big big
prizes in all. This In santos's, case it's got projects
In australia In papula And New guinea team or. Less
it's also got assets In, alaska but they're. Oil even
the fact that SUCH i mean the deal is probably,
unlikely but it does show that oil and gas is
(22:09):
going to the world of oil and gas is going
to change. Forever gas is in huge demand and it's
because everyone has suddenly realized it is the transition. Industry
we can't close gas down because we need it to
transition to. Renewables for much of the last, Year santos
And woodside held merger talks which would have created an
eighty billion dollar. COMPANY, eig A us based private equity,
(22:31):
group made a fourteen point four billion dollar bid For
santos a few years.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
Back it's all about.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Gas golf countries are investing huge amounts in, it and
The australian oil and gas guys are going to be
part of this global. Consolidation SO i reckon there's going
to be a lot of activity for investors in that.
World i'm not saying good or, bad SO i have no,
idea BUT i think we're going to for the rest
of this year be talking a lot about m and
(22:57):
a stuff around gas. Companies story all very, Serious Michael,
aver do you something briefoud be?
Speaker 1 (23:03):
Nice something brief is What i've got for, You. Sean
it's going to sound a little bit, STRANGE i suspect
Because i'm going to be putting the big tech companies
in the sleeper.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Category who are?
Speaker 1 (23:14):
THEY i know it hasn't worked for, You sean on
many occasions trying to claim that tech stories are remarkable
or the biggest of the, week or any of. That
but this is, Different, adam because What i've noticed this week.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Is a trend right in a.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
Week, yes because you see one story in isolation and
it doesn't look like. Much but join them together As i've,
Done suddenly they weave together into a, rich sleeper. Tapestry
and what this tapestry does is show quite clearly that
the tech platforms are actually under a little bit of,
(23:47):
pressure not necessarily from, investors but under pressure on a
variety of different. Fronts Example number, One, meta owner Of
instagram And, facebook has now threatened to block news from
its platforms In australia and stop local users that's you and,
me from sharing links to news articles if the government
decides to force them to negotiate payments with news. Organizations
(24:10):
this is a big. Escalation this is kind of That's defcon,
one and it isn't without. Precedent it's already blocked news In.
Canada example number.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Two can can you have a big escalation being Def con?
Speaker 1 (24:21):
One, No they're at Def con two at the, moment
and they're threatening to go to Def con one.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
Anyway Brever tartan please Sean example number. Two google likely
to face increase competition for search services On android devices
Because telstra And optus have told the Huble see that
they won't do a deal With google to force users
onto the. Platform so on mobile, Devices google searchers market
share In australia is around ninety eight. Percent that based
(24:49):
on this, decision this promise made By telstra And, optus
that may be changing Old i'm going to creect to you.
Here the competition whtchdog forced them to?
Speaker 3 (24:59):
Do?
Speaker 2 (24:59):
It Wasn't telstra not just being nice guys as much
of us see discovering that it was happening, THING i
can't do. That it's an undertaking they have. AGREED i,
MEAN i look a good important part of your. Story
but let's not give too much credit to the tilcos
on this. One that's, fine that's. Fine i'm happy to
happy to agree with you on that. One see example number. Three,
(25:19):
now this is a big, one short, one but a big.
One google's greenhouse gas emissions have surged forty eight percent
in the past five years and it's all because of
this massive increase in demand of course for data centers
AS ai grows and grows and. Grows what this means
is That google's commitment to get to net zero by
twenty thirty is now actually in. Doubt AND i don't
(25:40):
think there'll be too many, people, investors or anyone really will.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Be too happy about. That there were other examples as,
WELL i could give, you but victory through brevity and all,
THAT i won't go into. Them what we are seeing,
here if we just take a step, back zoom out
a little, bit gaze upon the tapestry That i've woven
cleverly for you today is an unusual site of the
t heck giants under, pressure fighting a million little battles
on a million different. Fronts you put it all, together
(26:06):
AND i think we're seeing a trend, here and that
trend is the ultimate sleeper. Story oh goodness, me well, Done, Michael.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
Adam, Well i'm redundant in this. Place, LOOK i find
myself in something of a. Surprise But michael, Wins oh my,
god you know this isn't Reflecting WELL i, Knew. ADAM
i know that's a. RISK i.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Do my favorite part of this is now it's one
all one with the judge.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Glorious look, sure and your story is, massive, right the
sleeper and not not just so much About, santos as you,
said but about the whole principle of the recognition about
liquefied natural gas and gas being really required energy. Sources they.
ARE i think there's some people that'll be a surprise.
TO i think you're absolutely right that there's more in that.
(27:07):
Story so it's a. Ripper but in this, instance the
big one that tipped the scales for me was not
just the news bargaining code or how international companies don't
pay much tax, here but also The google requirement in
the way they're working with. Telsternoptis that is very. Significant
but the biggest one that has been growing in a
(27:28):
sleeper sense is this massive consumption of energy ON. Ai
and SO i think.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
That we didn't know about, that, well not that.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
VOLUME i didn't. KNOW i didn't know The google The right.
PODCAST i didn't know until this news came out that
the scale of energy consumption is so big and it's
going to blow their emissions. Targets now that For google
is really really important and just how Pervasive google is
(27:57):
means it's important for. US i think it is a
really big Slee.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Now CAN i make a? Suggestion so we won one,
one it's a. Tie CAN i make a? Suggestion we
all give our favorite story for the?
Speaker 3 (28:08):
Week, okay all, right.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Let's Take adam out of the judging Process i'm. In
So adam come up with a. Story i'll come up
with a. Story, michael you come up with a, story
and perhaps readers or GOD i don't, mind or me can.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
Decide.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Cool oh, no that's not. Fair, no, Well michael AND
i shouldn't be, judged Not. Adam i'm happy to go with, You,
MICHAEL i don't.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
Know it was only because mine has a personal link
For adam THAT i was kind of counting.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
On SHALL i go first and give you both a
moment to think about your?
Speaker 3 (28:41):
Stories? Yes, yes do the favorite.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
STORY i think it's an easy one for anyone who loves,
politics who loves a bit of, drama even on the
other side of the. World and if you happen to
be married to someone who hails from THE, Uk, adam
THEN i SUSPECT.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
I SUSPECT i don't.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
Know you know it is not.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
Speculation THE uk election was held late this week and
an extraordinary landslide win to The Labor party with a
New Prime, Minister Sir Kiirs. Darma it's a pretty incredible
result For labor when you think about, it because just
five years ago the landslide went the other way With
Boris johnson As Prime, minister actually significantly growing The conservative government's.
(29:24):
Majority WHAT i find fascinating here is how The Labor
party ran with a campaign slogan of just one word
change and it's kind of, vague doesn't really tell you
what policies will be, changing but banked entirely on voter. Dissatisfaction,
really after fourteen years Of conservative, government a revolving door
of five prime, ministers including the sub fifty day term
(29:46):
Of Liz trust and the Party gate scandals Of Boris,
johnson the New Prime minister has done a lot to project,
stability particularly over the last few, years but really during
the election campaign as. Well he's brought the party towards the,
center away from the extreme left Of Jeremy, corbyn and
in doing so it was one a lot of support
from business as well and even the. Media adding to
(30:08):
the whole stability image is the fact That Sir. Kiirs
starmer's biggest, controversy as is identified in a lot of
media outlets when they do a comparison between the two
kind of candidates. Controversy his controversy is that he's. Boring
that is what they considered to be. Controversial his nickname
is No Drama. Starma Boris johnson once called Him Captain Krasherooney.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Snoozefest which is just, extraordinary isn't.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
It but the thing, is, though he's actually had a
pretty incredible, career recognized with a knighthood awarded to him
for services to law and criminal. Justice another fascinating tidbit
is that he has two kids who are thirteen and,
sixteen but he's never identified them in. Public he's kept
their names out of the, media he's kept them out
of photos to try and make their lives as normal as. Possible,
(30:58):
now these aren't kind of kind of one two year
olds to just kind of keep them at. Home these
are thirteen sixteen year olds that are kind of going
through high school and all of, this and still has
managed to keep them pretty much entirely. ANONYMOUS i think
that is. Amazing it's going to be rather tough at number.
Ten you would. Imagine of, Course, ADAM i don't even
know why'm pointing this out to, you because you're not
judging us.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Anymore but THE uk election has flow on effects To.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Australia so this is all just the add on stuff
at the, end the fluff to try and kind of
tick some of those boxes on your judging, criteria but
through the orchestrat the many other trade and diplomatic links
that we. Have but just for the fact that there's
a new prime minister in a. LANDSLIDE i love the
theater of it. All it's my favorite story of the.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Week and brevity is. Everything what was that phrasey we're?
USING i don't.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Remember it's not really relevant, anymore is?
Speaker 4 (31:40):
It Victoria Part, yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
That's, Right have you?
Speaker 1 (31:47):
FINISHED i was done like a good eight seconds, Ago,
sean my favorite.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Story how can anyone not be happy about this next?
Story how can anyone not have it as their favorite?
Story july one came and all these financially beneficial changes kicked. In,
firstly everyone can expect more money in their pay packet
as a result Of stage three tax cuts worth about
three hundred and thirty billion dollars out of the next.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
Decade no tax.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Anymore if you earn up to eighteen, thousand two, hundred
a sixteen percent rate then kicks.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
In that's between eighteen, thousand two hundred and forty five.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Thousand after forty five thousand, dollars you hit thirty percent
up to one hundred and thirty five thousand, dollars and
thirty seven percent up to one hundred and ninety thousand,
dollars and then u two forty five percent after. That
there's also an increase in the minimum wage that affects
two point six Million australian, workers goes from twenty three
dollars twenty three to twenty four dollars ten an.
Speaker 3 (32:36):
Hour you'd have to be a scrooge not to be
happy about that. One there's changes to paid.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Parentally there's also seventy five dollars energy rebate each quarter
that kicks in this financial. Year there's indexation of welfare.
Payments superannuation guarantee will rise from eleven till eleven and
a half, percent ensuring more money for everyone when they.
Retire we don't get these stories very. Often how could
it not be your favorite? Story that's WHAT i. Ask,
however having said, THAT i respect the fact That adam
(33:07):
is going to give his favorite, story which will be
interesting because he's a, judge And michael AND i will
then decide who wins and who.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Loses that, Amazing, Okay.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
So i'm going to choose an unorthodox, topic, well, humor let's,
say as my nomination for favorite story of the. Week
so THE uk. Election i'm not sure if either of
you have heard Of Jonathan. Pye have have either of
you heard of?
Speaker 2 (33:32):
HIM i don't, Know, Adam, michael stop, Googling stop. GOOGLING
i KNOW i was googling something.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
Else.
Speaker 4 (33:40):
Okay he runs a YouTube channel which is very. Successful
it's very very. Funny he, says he's A uk news,
reporter brutally honest views on the world of. Politics but
he just tears into politicians every single. Week and so
what he's done this, week and it was yesterday's election
(34:01):
special number. Five it's nearly six minutes. Long but if
you want to watch something just incredibly powerful and, funny
have a watch of. It and to, me just the
lack of humor that we see in THE us election
versus something Like Jonathan, pye which BASICALLY i think Keeps britain.
Sane you, know it is just such a brilliant. Story
(34:24):
so can.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
We just bring back to the categories that you judge
us on, Here, yes so just tell us what they are.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
Again, topicality, timeliness economic, impact subjective, bias and. Melodrama not
my strong, suit.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
Melodrama So, michael it looks like you AND i won
one and a, half one and a half to.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
One there we.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Go what a what a fantastic three way battle. Battle that's, right,
excellent three way, one one and a, half one and
a half. One this this does remind me a little
of the story Of. Michaels michael is an excellent whistler and.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
It's a.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Skill AND i do remember you telling us the story
in the early days WHEN i didn't know you. Well
you used to work for The Ray hadley morning show In,
sydney And ray at some point suggested to, You, michael
you're such a good, whistler come in and whistle a
tune as part of the.
Speaker 3 (35:29):
Show and you're very.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Excited you were, young you were you, know you're going
to be On Ray, hadley which is for you know
about forty years has been the number one rated morning.
Show maybe not forty, years but twenty years, anyway you
get your big. Break so it's just my, chance you,
Say so you get, there you're ready to. Go ray,
said you, know we've got our, Producer Michael. Thompson he's
going to give us a. Churn you whistled, beautifully. Magnificent
(35:55):
can't remember what it was you? Whistled what was? It
it doesn't, Matter it really doesn't. Matter you whistled it.
Beautifully you, finished and please take it from.
Speaker 1 (36:04):
THERE i whistled beautifully for about eight, seconds and all
of a, SUDDEN i just started to like something went
wrong AND i had to, stop AND i, Said i've
gone Dry ray and he, said, right we'll go to a,
break and we went to a commercial. BREAK i was
removed from the studio AND i never whistled on air.
Again it was it was one of those times where
(36:31):
you have a chance to show what you can do.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
And you and you just don't quite nail.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
It is this why you were telling this, Story, sean
because this is What adam just.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Did, yep, yeah quite nail.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
It oh, savage, Savage, oh what a way to finish
the show one and a half to one and a
half to one with an epic slapdown From seawan To.
Adam remember, That, adam and let it fuel all your
rage and your judgments next. Week, adam thank you very.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Much thank, you And, sean thank.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
You thank. You.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Michael make sure you're following the podcast and please join
us online On, LinkedIn, instagram, TikTok, facebook AND.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
X I'm Michael. Thompson and that was beer and. Greed
have a great. Weekend
This is the weekend edition of Fear and Greed, daily
business news for people who make their own decisions.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Are Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Aylmer, Good morning, Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Sew On our weekend show all about the two of us,
each nominating what we think is the biggest business story
of the week, the most remarkable business story. We try
and pick out a sleeper story, one that's flying under
the radar a little bit, and then our favorite business stories.
And since it's a competition, we are joined each week
by a judge to pick a winner that judges our
Fear and Greed colleague Adam Lang Adam, good morning.
Speaker 4 (00:36):
Good morning Michael, and good morning Sean.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Morning Adam.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
I think after a few rough weeks there, you've come
to the fourth the past couple of weeks, your judging
has improved enormously.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
I just want to let you know that all feedback welcome.
M Well, let's see I go today.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
What are the criteria that you're looking for, Adam? As
we go through those four categories that I've outlined, Yes,
what are you judging us on?
Speaker 4 (01:00):
All right? Me and the audience, I think are looking
for topicality, timeliness, economic impact, subjective bias obviously of each
of us, and melodrama. So swimsuit component there is none yet,
I'm open to suggestion.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
A swimsuit component.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Yeah, it's just like Miss Universe or any one of
those kind of pageants.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Okay, this is an audio mechanism, but yes, don't let
that stand in the way.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Suddenly, when it's just the three of us in the
studio and two of us are in our budgies, it
just gets a little bit uncomfortable. And Adams, they're having
to judge us. What exactly are you judging on? Adam?
Speaker 3 (01:43):
This has gone pear shaped very very quickly this morning.
Speaker 1 (01:47):
Let's let's go straight into the biggest story then, shall
we sean?
Speaker 3 (01:50):
What was it for you?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Well, it's not that often that an international story is
the biggest of the week, but just occasionally it is,
and this is one of those weeks. The US political
and legal system is easily the biggest story of the week.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
Part one.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
What's happening to the candidacy of President Joe Biden? After
last week's disastrous debate with Challenger Donald Trump. His performance
was so poor there's now a growing line of Democrats
from federal politicians to state governors hinting or outright saying
he shouldn't run. The polls are heading in the wrong
direction for mister Biden, with his age being the biggest challenge.
(02:27):
Media reports, which have been denied, suggests the President himself
actually considered the idea of not running. Part two of
this story. The US Supreme Court ruled the presidents and
ex presidents cannot be charged for things they do as
part of their core duties. The six' to three decision
was made along ideological, lines with the minority liberal judges
(02:48):
releasing an absolutely ferocious alternate. Judgment the decision says presidents
or ex presidents are AND i quote entitled to at
least presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts
and QUOTE i like the fact that it's a male there,
too those say his official. Acts the minority decision says
(03:09):
the ruling makes a mockery of the principle that no
man is above the. Law trump quickly took to social, media,
saying in capital, letters of, course big win for our
constitution and.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Democracy proud to be An american.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
President Joe biden said the decision is an abandonment of
a core principle Of american democracy and will Allow Donald
trump self defining power if he's elected In. November he,
Said Donald trump will now be free to ignore the.
Law The Supreme court, decision along With Joe biden's ailing,
fortunes have somewhat Rallied democrats who fear A Donald trump.
(03:41):
Presidency now it isn't totally clear If Joe biden will
run this. YEAR i mean IT'S i think it's very
likely he. Will it is definitely clear that under The
Supreme court, ruling The president of THE, usa whoever that person,
is is incredibly powerful and when undertaking official, acts is
pretty to being immune from the. Law this week has
(04:04):
massive ramifications, political, geopolitical, economic, social legal around the world
for decades to, come not just in THE us but
around the.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
World much bigger Than ray. V.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Wade i'd just like to throw them in there For,
adam much, bigger huge week IN us. Politics, michael did
you see all the reports that were coming. OUT i
mean they've been coming out the whole.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
Time then a lot of kind of sources close To
Joe biden talking about kind of the limits on what
he is physically capable of, doing and the fact that
they said that he's only really able to function effectively
between ten am and four, pm and that if he
attends official kind of things or, fundraisers. Etc outside of those,
hours you are much much more likely to get these gaffes.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
And things coming.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Up so, yeah and then apparently he told a room
full of governors that he just needs you get more,
sleep and then he can't do these he can't do
functions after eight o'clock at, night and.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
All this and just all of these kind of.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Things it, Does it just keeps kind of adding to
that momentum against.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
Him so, anyway it is a big. Story, sure biggest.
STORY i Think michael is the, way and you've added to.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
It it's a big SO i added to. It so, if, Hey,
adam if he does, win we now share the.
Speaker 3 (05:24):
Points don't. Concede i'm not.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
Conceding i'm JUST i am hedging my. Bets it's called.
Insurance If sean, WINS i get half the. Points IF i,
win he gets. NONE i have a goal this. Week
i've got a bit of a, goal a change of.
Strategy i'm going to win with short stories this. Week
victory through brevity is my new slogan or In, Latin
victoria perb brever, tartum.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
Breve brever.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Tartum it's that like a ham and cheese. Toasty it
does sound.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Like, that doesn't.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
It and, already already it feels as though you were
robbing me by ability to kind of stick to my
new slogan. Brevertart So sean can waffle on all he
wants about stories happening on the other side of the
world with very limited impact on, us WHEREAS i can
tell you that the big story this week that actually
has a material impact on you and me and the
(06:18):
Everyday rick And connie in the street Is.
Speaker 3 (06:21):
Wonnie, yeah does it Get rick And? Connie what's wrong
With bill And? Jane?
Speaker 1 (06:26):
No, WELL i mean Every connie deserves her, day as
Does rick.
Speaker 2 (06:31):
EXACTLY i just Thought i'd change it up with a silent.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
Peece don't.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
You don't you ever just say the first thing that
comes into your head sometimes.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Clearly not.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Yes was it brever Tart, Yes victoria Per brevetartam kind
of lost my trainer thought that, anyway what is actually
Affecting rick And connie And steve And Billy joe in
the street is what's happened With house prices over the last,
year because it was of course the start of the
new financial. Year time for reflection over what was a
(07:06):
truly extraordinary year in The australian property market and is
likely to be an extraordinary year. AHEAD a couple of
the stats for, You, ADAM i know that you love.
Stats i'm not going to go into too much detail Because, victoria.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Perp brevertas and all that kind of. Thing, Yes perth
house prices up nearly twenty four percent in one, year
twenty four. Percent you ask any of Our perth listeners
what they care about More Donald trump or a twenty
four percent increase in house, prices AND i can assure
you it is not The. Don brisbane up sixteen, Percent
(07:41):
adelaide fifteen, Percent sydney six, percent dalw And cambra two,
percent well one point three. Percent, these these core logic
figures are hugely. Significant they matter big time because even
though interest rates throughout their highest level in, years property
just keeps on. Going and And, adam do you ever
think that like the Faster michael, talks the louder he,
talks the less value there is in the.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Story, well this is a very high.
Speaker 4 (08:06):
Risk i'm also wondering about the breve tartum.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Bit, Yeah i'm nearly. Done if you stopped.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Interrupting you would allow my brevetartum to, prevail brevitate.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
Prevail, yes.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Exactly good news for renters as, well with The domain
quarterly rent report this week showing the lowest growth in
house rents for three or four years for many capital, cities.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
That is spectacularly.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Good news in the midst of a rental, crisis and
the forecast for the rest of the year easing pressure
because we're past the peak of the immigration, boom reducing
demand for. Properties it has been a monster week for
property in this, country for house prices and for. Rents
this is the story of the, people from the men
of the. People that's it. Done all in about twenty.
(08:51):
Seconds you added on about three and a half minutes
because of your.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
Interruption, okay it's a lovely experiment in. Brevetartum might need
a little, work a little more, Work.
Speaker 3 (09:02):
Sean wins M, Michael dad looked like. That you knew
you had no. Chance that's why you're carrying on so.
Much that's WHY i get half your. Points i'm not.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Worried this is a fabulous victory FOR, Us, sean.
Speaker 4 (09:17):
So house process is hugely. Important it's more of an evolving.
Story this isn't shocking change in the trajectory that we.
Know so there's so much week that needs to be
done and it's vitally, important as you, Say, michael this week,
THOUGH i have to say that the political and legal
stories out of THE, us it's just extraordinary and it
(09:39):
is definitely the biggest story of the. Week so well, Done.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
SHAWN i think that all my badgering About ray.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
V wade over the last couple of years has come,
Finally finally patience.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
Evidends, yeah but it won't wipe it out.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
Though well the context for new, listeners of. Course so
this is That sean nominated the overturning Of wide as
the biggest, story the most remarkable story when it, happened
And adam ruled against it and says like house prices
or something was the biggest story of the.
Speaker 4 (10:11):
Week, well it was a draft, judgment it wasn't the real.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
ONE i, look, YEAH i just don't think i'd try
and justify that.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
DEBARKLE i just love how Long sean can hold on to.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
Something not, really there's plenty of life in this.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
One most remarkable, Story, MICHAEL i think you should go. First, okay,
well most remarkable story for me is a quick one this.
Speaker 3 (10:35):
Week really it Is Victoria.
Speaker 1 (10:38):
Purprevitartan the most remarkable story in a week full of
somewhat unremarkable stories on a was the Remarkable you, know
it's just it's been one of those weeks right where
you get a story LIKE us, politics and it does
tend to kind of suck the oxygen out of a
lot of other, stuff like everyone suddenly talking about that and,
(10:58):
really but then you know, what then this was a.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Gift it was a little gift in the.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Form a change in, direction a little.
Speaker 1 (11:08):
Gift in the form of The Reserve Bank board minutes.
Right and what was remarkable it was wait for. This
what was remarkable was the remarkable insight that we received
into what The Reserve Bank board is thinking right now
and just how likely it is that we will see
(11:30):
potentially an interest rate hike as soon As, august because
these minutes showed and it was quite a, shock i
think for many to see just how serious they are
about hiking rates if. Needed and one quote in particular stood,
out and of, Course, sean you shared this through the,
week AND i wrote it down AND i THOUGHT i
should put this on my wall because it is that.
(11:50):
Profound the quote was members acknowledged if inflation expectations were
to rise materially from current, levels it could require significantly
higher interest rates to bring inflation back to. Target does
this sound to you like a group of people who
are not serious about raising? Rates it most certainly does.
(12:12):
Not what we have here is a central bank very
very concerned about embedding higher price, expectations and anyone wanting
to know how this, works how inflation expectations can create
that spiral of higher wages and higher. Prices to listen
to our bonus episode Of Ask fear And greed From
thursday And shawing you do a very good job of
going through all of that and explaining all of. That
the bottom, line, though is that the RBA's forecast for
(12:34):
inflation to return to the midpoint to the target band
by mid twenty twenty six is at.
Speaker 3 (12:38):
Risk the inflation.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Numbers this, month of, course of, course will be absolutely
vital to. This but isn't it just? Remarkable And i'm
looking around the studio everyone is nodding in agreement here
that The Reserve bank is absolutely primed to. Act they
are at Def con three right, now and those minutes
this week just how serious they are about the potential
(13:03):
to increase rates should the need.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
Arise there you.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Go so it reminds me a story of a story
which my, mother when she was listening to the, show
this is probably six months, ago rang me and, said
your voice sounds. Terrible and mum's ninety three or almost ninety,
three and technology sometimes sort of beats. Her, anyway my
sister happened to be there and said To, mum you
(13:29):
know that you're listening at double speed two?
Speaker 3 (13:32):
Times and, oh, No, DARLING i didn't know.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
That she then apologized and, said, oh your voice sounded
quite nice when you're a normal speed when you were
doing that story, Then, michael it kind of reminded me
of what double speed is.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Like but you weren't at double. Speed you're at single. Speed.
Speaker 2 (13:49):
Now i'm at passion. Speed, Sean, HELLO i don't bring.
Speaker 3 (13:54):
That up with my. Mother come on single speed, please goodness.
Speaker 2 (13:58):
Me it is a, ferocious efficient speed, Now.
Speaker 3 (14:03):
Sean my most remarkable, Story i'm not sure what. Yours.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
See yours is The Reserve Bank board minutes that, yes
what happens absolutely ah. Well my most remarkable story which
emerged this week is how much the big banks dominate
THE asex two hundred and what that means for. Investors
and they're getting even bigger with the treasure Of Jim
(14:27):
chalmers agreeing to LET a AND z By Sun corps banking.
Business at the end of the financial, year a year
where the market returned eight, percent led by the tech
stocks and The Medians Superannuation Growth fund is forecast to
return nine. Percent my third story in this one story so,
far The Financials index on The moors now represents thirty
one and a half percent of the title market. Capitalization
(14:50):
it creates a massive challenge for anyone investing in THE
asx two hundred because it's now overly reliant on financials
and most of the financials index he made up of
the big four. Banks if the banks have a bad,
year and many think they will because of current relatively high,
valuations then the market will struggle to outperform compare. It
(15:11):
so the next biggest sector is, materials which includes the
big three. Miners it's got about twenty one, percent much
more diverse bunch of. Companies they don't rely just on
the big three, miners like the Financial index relies on
the big three. Banks tech, sector we talk about that
best performing sector last financial, year only accounts for three
point one percent of THE asex two. Hundred the point,
(15:32):
is if you're a passive investor in THE asex two,
hundred your fortunes are going to be tied in part
to the big four. Banks if you're an active, investor
you need to be more wary than ever before of
not holding the, banks or of holding too many of the,
banks because again your fortunes are very much tied to
the fact that we have these monsters in the.
Speaker 3 (15:52):
Market there is a recent president for.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
This in the last few YEARS us tech stocks And Wall,
street the big Seven microsoft And, Vidia, Tesla, Amazon, Apple,
meta And google have contributed well over half the performance
of THE s AND p five. Hundred so if you
didn't hold tech stocks Like, nvidia which reminds me this
is story number, seven which reminds me That australians super
underperformed last financial year because it didn't at least for
(16:16):
a while when you were hold End, video therefore struggling
to beat the. Market the fact that if you didn't
hold tech stocks last, year you didn't beat the market
in THE. Us similar sort of deal In, australia very
very tricky for.
Speaker 3 (16:29):
Investors do you get a sense.
Speaker 1 (16:31):
Of deja vu at, All, Adam it's like it. Doesn't
it just feel to you like a very similar story
might have been the most remarkable story on just pulling
a random Date, saturday the eighth Of, june as, well
not having just gone back and checked the. Record, look
you know, What, sean IF i didn't know, BETTER i
would accuse you of a bit of copying and.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
PASTING i got the material sector in, There i've got
the tech stocks in, There i've got the superinnuation, returns
AND i got every possible Thing july one into that
story except for house, prices which you lost. On it's
actually diversified your portfolio.
Speaker 3 (17:05):
Didn't that's, right extremely.
Speaker 4 (17:07):
Sensible So sean's analysis is really good and, important and
SO i enjoyed the. Newsletter i've enjoyed listening to. It
and it is staggering that banks dominate so, much nearly
a third of the whole asx two, hundred that's. Amazing
and it is as you've, Described, sean risk it is
(17:29):
an evolving. Story And. Michael the minutes came. Out the
meetings happened a little while, Ago so this tour is
an evolving.
Speaker 3 (17:35):
STORY i think we're both going to get done. Here,
michael it feels like he's.
Speaker 2 (17:39):
Going to kick us.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
Out, yeah Like i've found two new people to do the.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
Show so but look, that.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
The as you, Said, michael the significantly higher rates risk is.
Significant SO i THINK i have to call it a
draw on this. One both remarkable evolutions of. Stories but
CAN i give you a quick. ANECDOTE i got distracted
When michael used the deaf con, system and So i'm
(18:08):
going to reveal a little bit of my working past.
Here is? That? Okay? Yes SO, todayfm fifteen years, Ago
carl San Lanz jackie over on The Breakfast, show AND
i worked with a. COLLEAGUE i won't name him BECAUSE
i haven't saw, permission but they described the situation as,
(18:28):
This When kyle And JACKIE o come on, air it's
like the def con system is in. Place, Adam this
person said to, me so before you, know the midnight
to dawn, shift you've got normal readiness Def con. Five
the moment you get close to five, o'clock deaf gone
four you've got to be above normal. Readiness and then
(18:49):
when it gets, close like to five point forty, five you,
Know kyle's going to come in AND jackieo is going
to come in and they're going to get. Ready that's.
Three you've got to have your air force. Ready and
then when they go, on you are immediately a deaf con.
Too you've got to have everything, ready and the equivalent
is having the armed forces ready to deploy in less
than six. Hours oh my. God so it's just that
(19:12):
Deaf con. Story when you mentioned def was, like oh my,
god it takes me back to that high state of
alert we had to.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Have extraordinary must have been very difficult to work with
people like, that And i'm not talking them as, individuals
but just always on edge that something's going to go
to where you shouldn't go to Where, well live.
Speaker 4 (19:31):
Radio is always like, that but when you have personalities
Like kyle And jackio and their content was so, sharp you,
know in many cases it caused very divided. Opinions so
that state of alert was just so.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
High. Fascinating victoria Perb.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
Brevitatum i'd almost award the most remarkable story To.
Speaker 3 (19:52):
Adam.
Speaker 2 (19:53):
YEAH o thought that was more interesting than either of.
Speaker 3 (19:55):
Ours one zero.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
One i've actually been beaten by the judge at the.
Moment you've been. Beaten you've been beaten by. Atic you'll
be beaten by the.
Speaker 1 (20:05):
Judge goodness to, me hold out hope for the swimsuit.
Category all, right we will take a, break come back
with a sleeper story in a. Moment all, Right, sean
we're looking for a sleeper, story as sleeper, stories of,
course one that's not getting the attention that it, deserves.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
That we feel it.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Deserves that's quite, subjective flying under the radar a little,
bit usually kind of involving kind of probably small companies
that no one's really heard, of that don't make much
impact globally or anything like, that talking about nothing to
do with it.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
Whatsoever what's? Yours what's your sleeper?
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Story so there were reports this week that two separate,
Companies saudi's A remco And Abu Dhabi National Oil, co
are considering bidding For, santos the local oil and gas.
Giant now they're both stayed owned To remco AND Adnoc
Abu Dhabi National Oil cos note as, adnock So arenko AND.
(21:04):
Adnoc they've been conducting preliminary evaluations Of santos as a
possible acquisition. Target according To, bloomberg that's not the sleeper part, here.
Right santos basically came out said doesn't comment on market.
Speculation obviously not particularly close to a deal or anything like,
that the new surprise sum, analysts because the deal would
have to go through all sorts of regulatory, hurdles Particularly
(21:25):
Foreign Investment Review board. Hurdles whether we want people from
The Middle east owning our, assets who knows? Where it
is really interesting, though and this is the sleeper, part is.
It it just shows how much movement there is in
the oil and gas, world how MUCH m AND a
activity we can, expect and Woodside, santos beach, energy these
(21:48):
guys In australia are going to be part of. IT
l AND g really and gas are the, big big
prizes in all. This In santos's, case it's got projects
In australia In papula And New guinea team or. Less
it's also got assets In, alaska but they're. Oil even
the fact that SUCH i mean the deal is probably,
unlikely but it does show that oil and gas is
(22:09):
going to the world of oil and gas is going
to change. Forever gas is in huge demand and it's
because everyone has suddenly realized it is the transition. Industry
we can't close gas down because we need it to
transition to. Renewables for much of the last, Year santos
And woodside held merger talks which would have created an
eighty billion dollar. COMPANY, eig A us based private equity,
(22:31):
group made a fourteen point four billion dollar bid For
santos a few years.
Speaker 3 (22:35):
Back it's all about.
Speaker 2 (22:36):
Gas golf countries are investing huge amounts in, it and
The australian oil and gas guys are going to be
part of this global. Consolidation SO i reckon there's going
to be a lot of activity for investors in that.
World i'm not saying good or, bad SO i have no,
idea BUT i think we're going to for the rest
of this year be talking a lot about m and
(22:57):
a stuff around gas. Companies story all very, Serious Michael,
aver do you something briefoud be?
Speaker 1 (23:03):
Nice something brief is What i've got for, You. Sean
it's going to sound a little bit, STRANGE i suspect
Because i'm going to be putting the big tech companies
in the sleeper.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
Category who are?
Speaker 1 (23:14):
THEY i know it hasn't worked for, You sean on
many occasions trying to claim that tech stories are remarkable
or the biggest of the, week or any of. That
but this is, Different, adam because What i've noticed this week.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
Is a trend right in a.
Speaker 1 (23:27):
Week, yes because you see one story in isolation and
it doesn't look like. Much but join them together As i've,
Done suddenly they weave together into a, rich sleeper. Tapestry
and what this tapestry does is show quite clearly that
the tech platforms are actually under a little bit of,
(23:47):
pressure not necessarily from, investors but under pressure on a
variety of different. Fronts Example number, One, meta owner Of
instagram And, facebook has now threatened to block news from
its platforms In australia and stop local users that's you and,
me from sharing links to news articles if the government
decides to force them to negotiate payments with news. Organizations
(24:10):
this is a big. Escalation this is kind of That's defcon,
one and it isn't without. Precedent it's already blocked news In.
Canada example number.
Speaker 3 (24:17):
Two can can you have a big escalation being Def con?
Speaker 1 (24:21):
One, No they're at Def con two at the, moment
and they're threatening to go to Def con one.
Speaker 2 (24:26):
Anyway Brever tartan please Sean example number. Two google likely
to face increase competition for search services On android devices
Because telstra And optus have told the Huble see that
they won't do a deal With google to force users
onto the. Platform so on mobile, Devices google searchers market
share In australia is around ninety eight. Percent that based
(24:49):
on this, decision this promise made By telstra And, optus
that may be changing Old i'm going to creect to you.
Here the competition whtchdog forced them to?
Speaker 3 (24:59):
Do?
Speaker 2 (24:59):
It Wasn't telstra not just being nice guys as much
of us see discovering that it was happening, THING i
can't do. That it's an undertaking they have. AGREED i,
MEAN i look a good important part of your. Story
but let's not give too much credit to the tilcos
on this. One that's, fine that's. Fine i'm happy to
happy to agree with you on that. One see example number. Three,
(25:19):
now this is a big, one short, one but a big.
One google's greenhouse gas emissions have surged forty eight percent
in the past five years and it's all because of
this massive increase in demand of course for data centers
AS ai grows and grows and. Grows what this means
is That google's commitment to get to net zero by
twenty thirty is now actually in. Doubt AND i don't
(25:40):
think there'll be too many, people, investors or anyone really will.
Speaker 1 (25:43):
Be too happy about. That there were other examples as,
WELL i could give, you but victory through brevity and all,
THAT i won't go into. Them what we are seeing,
here if we just take a step, back zoom out
a little, bit gaze upon the tapestry That i've woven
cleverly for you today is an unusual site of the
t heck giants under, pressure fighting a million little battles
on a million different. Fronts you put it all, together
(26:06):
AND i think we're seeing a trend, here and that
trend is the ultimate sleeper. Story oh goodness, me well, Done, Michael.
Speaker 4 (26:19):
Adam, Well i'm redundant in this. Place, LOOK i find
myself in something of a. Surprise But michael, Wins oh my,
god you know this isn't Reflecting WELL i, Knew. ADAM
i know that's a. RISK i.
Speaker 1 (26:40):
Do my favorite part of this is now it's one
all one with the judge.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Glorious look, sure and your story is, massive, right the
sleeper and not not just so much About, santos as you,
said but about the whole principle of the recognition about
liquefied natural gas and gas being really required energy. Sources they.
ARE i think there's some people that'll be a surprise.
TO i think you're absolutely right that there's more in that.
(27:07):
Story so it's a. Ripper but in this, instance the
big one that tipped the scales for me was not
just the news bargaining code or how international companies don't
pay much tax, here but also The google requirement in
the way they're working with. Telsternoptis that is very. Significant
but the biggest one that has been growing in a
(27:28):
sleeper sense is this massive consumption of energy ON. Ai
and SO i think.
Speaker 3 (27:34):
That we didn't know about, that, well not that.
Speaker 4 (27:36):
VOLUME i didn't. KNOW i didn't know The google The right.
PODCAST i didn't know until this news came out that
the scale of energy consumption is so big and it's
going to blow their emissions. Targets now that For google
is really really important and just how Pervasive google is
(27:57):
means it's important for. US i think it is a
really big Slee.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Now CAN i make a? Suggestion so we won one,
one it's a. Tie CAN i make a? Suggestion we
all give our favorite story for the?
Speaker 3 (28:08):
Week, okay all, right.
Speaker 2 (28:10):
Let's Take adam out of the judging Process i'm. In
So adam come up with a. Story i'll come up
with a. Story, michael you come up with a, story
and perhaps readers or GOD i don't, mind or me can.
Speaker 3 (28:24):
Decide.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Cool oh, no that's not. Fair, no, Well michael AND
i shouldn't be, judged Not. Adam i'm happy to go with, You,
MICHAEL i don't.
Speaker 1 (28:33):
Know it was only because mine has a personal link
For adam THAT i was kind of counting.
Speaker 2 (28:37):
On SHALL i go first and give you both a
moment to think about your?
Speaker 3 (28:41):
Stories? Yes, yes do the favorite.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
STORY i think it's an easy one for anyone who loves,
politics who loves a bit of, drama even on the
other side of the. World and if you happen to
be married to someone who hails from THE, Uk, adam
THEN i SUSPECT.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
I SUSPECT i don't.
Speaker 4 (28:57):
Know you know it is not.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
Speculation THE uk election was held late this week and
an extraordinary landslide win to The Labor party with a
New Prime, Minister Sir Kiirs. Darma it's a pretty incredible
result For labor when you think about, it because just
five years ago the landslide went the other way With
Boris johnson As Prime, minister actually significantly growing The conservative government's.
(29:24):
Majority WHAT i find fascinating here is how The Labor
party ran with a campaign slogan of just one word
change and it's kind of, vague doesn't really tell you
what policies will be, changing but banked entirely on voter. Dissatisfaction,
really after fourteen years Of conservative, government a revolving door
of five prime, ministers including the sub fifty day term
(29:46):
Of Liz trust and the Party gate scandals Of Boris,
johnson the New Prime minister has done a lot to project,
stability particularly over the last few, years but really during
the election campaign as. Well he's brought the party towards the,
center away from the extreme left Of Jeremy, corbyn and
in doing so it was one a lot of support
from business as well and even the. Media adding to
(30:08):
the whole stability image is the fact That Sir. Kiirs
starmer's biggest, controversy as is identified in a lot of
media outlets when they do a comparison between the two
kind of candidates. Controversy his controversy is that he's. Boring
that is what they considered to be. Controversial his nickname
is No Drama. Starma Boris johnson once called Him Captain Krasherooney.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Snoozefest which is just, extraordinary isn't.
Speaker 1 (30:37):
It but the thing, is, though he's actually had a
pretty incredible, career recognized with a knighthood awarded to him
for services to law and criminal. Justice another fascinating tidbit
is that he has two kids who are thirteen and,
sixteen but he's never identified them in. Public he's kept
their names out of the, media he's kept them out
of photos to try and make their lives as normal as. Possible,
(30:58):
now these aren't kind of kind of one two year
olds to just kind of keep them at. Home these
are thirteen sixteen year olds that are kind of going
through high school and all of, this and still has
managed to keep them pretty much entirely. ANONYMOUS i think
that is. Amazing it's going to be rather tough at number.
Ten you would. Imagine of, Course, ADAM i don't even
know why'm pointing this out to, you because you're not
judging us.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
Anymore but THE uk election has flow on effects To.
Speaker 1 (31:18):
Australia so this is all just the add on stuff
at the, end the fluff to try and kind of
tick some of those boxes on your judging, criteria but
through the orchestrat the many other trade and diplomatic links
that we. Have but just for the fact that there's
a new prime minister in a. LANDSLIDE i love the
theater of it. All it's my favorite story of the.
Speaker 3 (31:33):
Week and brevity is. Everything what was that phrasey we're?
USING i don't.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Remember it's not really relevant, anymore is?
Speaker 4 (31:40):
It Victoria Part, yeah.
Speaker 3 (31:44):
That's, Right have you?
Speaker 1 (31:47):
FINISHED i was done like a good eight seconds, Ago,
sean my favorite.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
Story how can anyone not be happy about this next?
Story how can anyone not have it as their favorite?
Story july one came and all these financially beneficial changes kicked. In,
firstly everyone can expect more money in their pay packet
as a result Of stage three tax cuts worth about
three hundred and thirty billion dollars out of the next.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
Decade no tax.
Speaker 2 (32:12):
Anymore if you earn up to eighteen, thousand two, hundred
a sixteen percent rate then kicks.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
In that's between eighteen, thousand two hundred and forty five.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Thousand after forty five thousand, dollars you hit thirty percent
up to one hundred and thirty five thousand, dollars and
thirty seven percent up to one hundred and ninety thousand,
dollars and then u two forty five percent after. That
there's also an increase in the minimum wage that affects
two point six Million australian, workers goes from twenty three
dollars twenty three to twenty four dollars ten an.
Speaker 3 (32:36):
Hour you'd have to be a scrooge not to be
happy about that. One there's changes to paid.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Parentally there's also seventy five dollars energy rebate each quarter
that kicks in this financial. Year there's indexation of welfare.
Payments superannuation guarantee will rise from eleven till eleven and
a half, percent ensuring more money for everyone when they.
Retire we don't get these stories very. Often how could
it not be your favorite? Story that's WHAT i. Ask,
however having said, THAT i respect the fact That adam
(33:07):
is going to give his favorite, story which will be
interesting because he's a, judge And michael AND i will
then decide who wins and who.
Speaker 3 (33:13):
Loses that, Amazing, Okay.
Speaker 4 (33:18):
So i'm going to choose an unorthodox, topic, well, humor let's,
say as my nomination for favorite story of the. Week
so THE uk. Election i'm not sure if either of
you have heard Of Jonathan. Pye have have either of
you heard of?
Speaker 2 (33:32):
HIM i don't, Know, Adam, michael stop, Googling stop. GOOGLING
i KNOW i was googling something.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
Else.
Speaker 4 (33:40):
Okay he runs a YouTube channel which is very. Successful
it's very very. Funny he, says he's A uk news,
reporter brutally honest views on the world of. Politics but
he just tears into politicians every single. Week and so
what he's done this, week and it was yesterday's election
(34:01):
special number. Five it's nearly six minutes. Long but if
you want to watch something just incredibly powerful and, funny
have a watch of. It and to, me just the
lack of humor that we see in THE us election
versus something Like Jonathan, pye which BASICALLY i think Keeps britain.
Sane you, know it is just such a brilliant. Story
(34:24):
so can.
Speaker 2 (34:25):
We just bring back to the categories that you judge
us on, Here, yes so just tell us what they are.
Speaker 4 (34:30):
Again, topicality, timeliness economic, impact subjective, bias and. Melodrama not
my strong, suit.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
Melodrama So, michael it looks like you AND i won
one and a, half one and a half to.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
One there we.
Speaker 2 (34:50):
Go what a what a fantastic three way battle. Battle that's, right,
excellent three way, one one and a, half one and
a half. One this this does remind me a little
of the story Of. Michaels michael is an excellent whistler and.
Speaker 3 (35:11):
It's a.
Speaker 2 (35:11):
Skill AND i do remember you telling us the story
in the early days WHEN i didn't know you. Well
you used to work for The Ray hadley morning show In,
sydney And ray at some point suggested to, You, michael
you're such a good, whistler come in and whistle a
tune as part of the.
Speaker 3 (35:29):
Show and you're very.
Speaker 2 (35:30):
Excited you were, young you were you, know you're going
to be On Ray, hadley which is for you know
about forty years has been the number one rated morning.
Show maybe not forty, years but twenty years, anyway you
get your big. Break so it's just my, chance you,
Say so you get, there you're ready to. Go ray,
said you, know we've got our, Producer Michael. Thompson he's
going to give us a. Churn you whistled, beautifully. Magnificent
(35:55):
can't remember what it was you? Whistled what was? It
it doesn't, Matter it really doesn't. Matter you whistled it.
Beautifully you, finished and please take it from.
Speaker 1 (36:04):
THERE i whistled beautifully for about eight, seconds and all
of a, SUDDEN i just started to like something went
wrong AND i had to, stop AND i, Said i've
gone Dry ray and he, said, right we'll go to a,
break and we went to a commercial. BREAK i was
removed from the studio AND i never whistled on air.
Again it was it was one of those times where
(36:31):
you have a chance to show what you can do.
Speaker 2 (36:35):
And you and you just don't quite nail.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
It is this why you were telling this, Story, sean
because this is What adam just.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
Did, yep, yeah quite nail.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
It oh, savage, Savage, oh what a way to finish
the show one and a half to one and a
half to one with an epic slapdown From seawan To.
Adam remember, That, adam and let it fuel all your
rage and your judgments next. Week, adam thank you very.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
Much thank, you And, sean thank.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
You thank. You.
Speaker 1 (37:06):
Michael make sure you're following the podcast and please join
us online On, LinkedIn, instagram, TikTok, facebook AND.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
X I'm Michael. Thompson and that was beer and. Greed
have a great. Weekend
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