December 4, 2025 • 17 mins
Friday 5 December 2025
Cigarettes and vapes cause the federal government, budget, health and crime headaches.
- Household spending surges.
- The federal government concedes it won’t hit its target for 1.2 new million homes by the end of the decade.
- Spotify releases its most played artists and songs.
- Aussie tourist favourite Thailand relaxes rules around alcohol.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news. You can use
today's cigarettes and vapes cause the federal government budget, health
and crime headaches, household spending surges, and the federal government
concedes it won't hit its target for one point two
million homes by the end of the decade. Plus, Spotify
releases its most played artists and songs, and Ossie tourists
(00:28):
favorite Thailand relaxes rules around alcohol. It is Friday, the
fifth of December twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson. And
that's quite a mixed bag, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
That's quite mixed bag. Sewan Aylmer. That's it a very
mixed show, a mixed bag of a show. Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
It really is something for everyone today. The main story
this morning, Sean, the federal government has run into an
economic dilemma when it comes to tobacco sales. They've been
taxed so much, so heavily, that the illegal market has surged,
and that's hurting legitimate retailers. At the same time, cigarettes
are so available and so cheap on the black market.
(01:08):
The fear is that smoking rates, which the government's been
working hard to get lower over a long period of
time will actually rise.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Legal cigarette and tobacco sales fell twenty nine percent in
the year through to the end of September, according to
the Bureau Statistics. Now, a bunch of retailers, including IgA, Slash,
Met Cash, Woolli's Coal's mpole Viva Energy, which runs Shell,
they've talked about falling revenue from tobacco sales. Illegal tobacco
(01:36):
sales are surging, with convenience stores selling a pack of
twenty five cigarettes for as little as sixteen dollars compared
to a retail price of fifty dollars. Now, of that
fifty dollars, thirty four dollars a goes in taxes. A
report by the Center for Independent Studies says the federal
government's tobacco tax has reached the point of diminishing returns.
(01:56):
Rising excise rates, rather than diminishing demand, actually has incentivized
illicit supply. Now, the federal government's tobacco excis revenue has
more than half since twenty nineteen twenty. It's forecast to
continue to climb. You think that's a good thing. You
would hope that was a good thing, But the problem
is it's now got this black market absolutely humming.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
And even more concerning, i'd say, is the instances of
smoking among young Australians as rising.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Yes so, Roy Morgan. Data released earlier in the year
showed seventeen point four percent of Australians aged eighteen and
over smoked or vaped, similar to levels a deco ago. However,
the number of younger Australians aged eighteen to twenty four
smoking or vaping had risen to twenty seven point eight percent,
according to the Finn Review. There's also the problem of
crime that comes alongside legal sales. There have been fire
(02:49):
bombings in Victoria, where rival gangs have fought for control
over the trade. In New South Wales and South Australia,
governments have introduced tough new penalties for selling illegal tobacco,
but the problem remains now. Australian Federal Police Commissioner Chrissy
Barrett was in Senate estimates this week. She said authorities
had seized thirty three million dollars in proceeds from crime
(03:10):
linked tobacco since June. Five point eight million cigarettes were
seized in July. Eighty four thousand faipes was seized in July.
Spending on cigarettes and tobacco in Australia. This is the
legal side of it. Peaked in nineteen eighty one, they
spent about ninety eight billion dollars in today's dollars, found
about fifteen billion in the legal tobacco market. Now we
(03:33):
have a target of less than five percent of the
population smoking by twenty thirty about eight five percent now, however,
we're just not getting there. And it is the number
one cause of deaths in middle aged Australians. It's responsible
for sixty six Australians dying a day, twenty four thousand
people annually, the leading cause of preventable death in Australia.
(03:57):
This is a tax policy that has well and truly
outlived its usefulness.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
And a wonder kind of is the solution if not
to change the taxation side of it, is it a
greater crackdown because on borders, for instance, because a very
large percentage of it is being imported illegally, only a
small percentage is actually been grown domestically and manufactured here.
A lot of it is coming in somehow from overseas. Yes,
(04:26):
it's a very difficult thing to stop that.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Yes, so a lot of it's from China, in the
Middle East, the United Arab Emirates seems to be the
source of much of it. It's a supply and demand problem.
You really have to reduce demand. Supply is really hard
to stop, but reducing demand. And remember many years ago
there were advertisements which did a great job in lowering smoking,
(04:52):
just told you how dreadful smoking was for you. And
we sort of see it now for road accidents. We
don't see it for smoking so much much. But what
those ads did was actually reduced demand. And this is
really a demand side problem.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
And the other side of that is the fact that
all those warnings they are not on the illegal cigarettes,
and particularly with the individual warnings printed on individual cigarettes now,
so it is very much in your face and it
is not present on the illicit tobacco. So anyway, we're
not going to solve it here, Sean, but it is
a fascinating and worrying story. The ASX how did we
(05:29):
go yesterday?
Speaker 2 (05:30):
As a PASX two hundred closed up a bit zero
point three percent. The material sector did best, Property companies
were worst, b HP and really Tinto were strong performers.
More on that, surely, says l joined. AUP jumped a
couple of percent, while all the major banks were higher
worst for the major caps, with gold digger Northern Star
down nearly four percent and Goodman Group which was off
about two and a half percent.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Describing Northern Star as a gold digger always just sounds
a little bit, a little bit like you're having a
crack at it. You mentioned that we're going to get
into copper a little bit later, let's do it now.
The price of copper hit a new high, sending the
share prices of BHP where Tinto and a bunch of
other copper miners higher.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Copper is a bellweather commodity. Normally, a high copper price
means global economic confidence is pretty strong at the moment. However,
there are concerns about a tightening global supply. Now. One
of the big copper copper producers is Glencore. It's cut
its near term output target. Everyone wants copper at the
moment because we use it in electronics and electric vehicles,
(06:33):
that type of thing. So the fact that one of
the big producers cutting its term output target has helped
push up the price to almost eleven five hundred US
dollars a ton, that's about thirty percent higher than where
they started this year. That has really been pushing South
thirty to Sandfaire Resources some of those stocks on the
local market. BHP has been a big beneficiary in the
(06:54):
last week BEUCHP or last five trading days. Bachp's up
ten percent, read Tintas up nine percent, really driving those
big miners at the moment.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Yeah. Indeed, up next Sean. Obviously we've still got plenty
more show to get through. Only part way through the
mixed bag. But up after the show is Fear and
Greed Q and A. Andrew Dale from ECP Management is
your guest today.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Yes, So we're talking about the big four banks and
basically I ask Andrew which is the best one to
invest in? And he goes through the big four banks.
Plus more is what I'd say, plus more.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Plus more, Yeah, ECP Asset Management. That's coming up after
the show. Stick around for that one. We'll be back
in a moment with the rest of the day's business
news sewn. Australian household spending jumped one point three percent
in October, twice as much as expected by economists, suggesting
(07:55):
consumers are in fact out there spending. It looks like
at the house this whole spending indicator from the Bureau
Statistics replaces the retail sales figure.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It's new, a little bit volatile, but this is a
big jump even with that volatility, and you'll growth search
to five point six percent. The historical average is about
four and a half percent. Sales and promotional periods drove
the rise. The biggest increase was in consumer good spending
stuff like clothing, footwear, furniture. What I reckon this says
is that people are just getting smarter about how they shop. So,
(08:27):
for example, many of this year's Black Friday sales began
in October and the month cord here. People are waiting
for sales. They know there's going to be periods where
you can get stuff cheaper. That's certainly our households like that,
and they're waiting for it.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Now.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
That stuffs up the seasonal adjustment and might take a
little while for this new series to work out. What
it does mean is that the economy is picking up,
and it's unlikely the Reserve Bank will be enthused about
cutting rates on the back of these numbers.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
At least yeah and the Reserve Bank Board meets next week,
most economists expect no change to the official cash rate,
and according to bond markets, the following meeting, which is
in February, could result in a rate increase.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
It isn't the central case scenario, but bond markets have
priced in a twelve percent possibility of a rate rise
in February one hundred percent chance of a rate increase
sometime next year. Okay.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Defense Minister Richard Miles says he has received the Pentagon's
review into Orcus and the US is completely supportive of
the project.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
He sounds like Donald Trump. To the UJ last evening,
Miles who of course is acting PM at the moment, said,
we're working through the Orchest review and we very much
think the United States for providing it to us. What's
really important here is the United States is completely supportive
of UCAS, as the President of the United States made clear,
(09:50):
and all of us moving ahead in his words, or
so all of us are moving ahead, in his words,
full steam. He does sound like Donald Trump. News that
the Pentagon had launched a review in July prompted speculation
that the White House coulled jettison Orcus. Those views dissipated
after Prime Mini strength in the Albanize his visit to Washington,
d C. In October at that time, Trump gave pretty
(10:14):
full sighted support to ucas.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
You know, it wouldn't surprise me if more politicians end
up sounding like Donald Trump because he is such an
influential commentator, communicator, that's an effective communicator. Oh yeah, yeah.
And what he does, he speaks, he cuts through. It
wouldn't surprise me if that does actually start popping up
in politicians on both sides. The federal government has conceded, surprise, surprise,
(10:39):
it is unlikely to reach its ambition of building one
point two million homes before the end of the decade,
and only two states are likely to reach their targets
for new houses.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Yes, I mean, I rate that, but it's really the
bureaucracy of the federal government and some pretty important people.
In fact, the two most important economic bureaucrats are saying it.
Head of Treasury Jenny Wilkinson said building one point two
million homes by the end of twenty twenty nine would
be challenging now. On Wednesday, Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock
said the country will likely miss its housing targets at
(11:10):
Senate estimates. Wilkinson was asked whether the governments push that
sorry the government's five percent deposit scheme would drive up
prices only a little bit, she obfiscated, said a good word. Yeah,
She basically said, housing difficult to model. She thought there
would be a small positive impact over the medium term,
(11:30):
but you know, it's hard to know. Blah blah blah.
Sounded like an economist and a bureaucrat all in one, which,
of course Jenny Wilkinson is in a very impressive one.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
One point two million homes was always very optimistic goal, though, wasn't.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
It well, to be honest, if three levels of government
got into line and so local government didn't have all
this red tape to get through, and that's happened in
some states. You're looking at me, going come on with
me on this.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
No, no, already you're talking about the impossible. You're talking
about three levels of government into line. They're going to happen.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Fair point.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Still, in politics, the Opposition of criticizing the government over
a meeting between Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke and an
advocacy group pushing to repatriate Australian isis brides.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Acting PM Richard Marles has maintained the government did not
engage in the repatriation of vices Brides beyond what was
legally required. He was commenting after reports of Burke held
secret talks with advacy group Save the Children ahead of
vices Brides being repatriated to Australia minutes of the talk
show that Burke declined to provide formal assistance to Australians
(12:34):
stranded in Northern Syria. Sounds a little bit like a
storman a teacup that one.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Yeah, it's the end of the year, Shana rapidly approaching,
which means we get all these reports showing what people
buy and eat and say, and what they're listening to
all of these things. Spotify was up yesterday. It released
its top streaming tracks and unsurprisingly, I suppose overseas musicians.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Led the way number one. Michael have a guess that's it.
It's got to be Taylor Swift, right, It's got to
be Taylor Swift, then Drake, then Morgan Wollen. Never heard
of Morgan Wollan the Weekend and Billie Eilish The Weekend.
I definitely have heard because I bought my daughter tickets
for the weekend and it was canceled.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
So positive experience for you all.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
I love that. I didn't make it to the country.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
So you weren't even sure whether Morgan Wollan is a
man or a woman.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
No, I'm starting to talk about without pronouns here because
I don't know who morgan.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
As a gentleman a country singer, right, Okay, I might
have gone too far. I don't know that at all.
I just googled Morgan Wollan very quickly, trying to show
you up on my pop culture knowledge.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Well, the next thing, the most streamed track between January
one and the mid November cutoff was Ordinary. That's the
name of the song by Alex Warren. Thought Alex Warren Ordinary,
So I kicked it out. Never heard song, never heard
of the person.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Really, Okay, okay, stop. You and I work in the
Nova studios. Every day we sit there. That song is
on all the time the time, all the time you
are in your own world.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Half time focused on Fear and Greed. I actually had
a couple of texts yesterday. I had my nephew text me,
and he runs it. He runs a little business and
he's number one podcast listing was Fear and Greed, which
I thought was pretty cool.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Yeah, we had a couple of listeners yesterday tag us
in post on Instagram. So if you are one of
these people who has Fear and Greed appearing very highly
on your Spotify raps, then please post it online and
tag us. We would love to see that.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
That's great, just quickly. Top Australian artist The Wiggles okay,
followed by kid Leroy, Top Aussie song rip, tied by
Van Story. Let's like twenty years old and the Wiggles
are like fifty years old. Anyway, personally, I got my list.
I don't know, one hundred and ninety one genres of music.
Kind of happy about that.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
That's very mixed, hm.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Anyway, I think this is a sort of weekend edition topic. Yeah. Cool.
Oh can you imagine Adam. He'd be all over it.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
He will have such an eclectic mix. Anyway, let's let's
bring it up on the weekend.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Great call.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
Turning to international news, now Sean, the path ahead for
Ukraine peace talks is unclear, US President Donald Trump said
yesterday after what he called reasonably good talks between Russian
President Vladimir Putin and US envoys.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
The Kremlin said that Putin accepted some US proposals aimed
at ending the war in Ukraine and was prepared to
keep working to find a compromise. US special envoys Steve
Witkoff and Trump advisor and son in LAWA. Jared Kushner
spent hours at the Tremlin. They at the Tremblin at
the Kremlin. They I'd be tremblin if Kremlin, I got
to tell you. They departed with no specific breakthrough on
(15:53):
ending the war. Afterwards, Trump said, I, quote, what comes
out of that meeting, I can't tell you because it
does take to who to tango. I'm not quite sure
what he meant there. Then he added, we have some
pretty well worked out stuff with Ukraine, is what he's
talking about there. So maybe the Russian Russians aren't tangoing,
so to speak.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
All right, One last one Thailand. Sean has temporarily lifted
a decades old ban on the sale of alcoholic drinks
in the afternoons as it seeks to boost tourism.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
So this is a surprise. I've been to Thailand for holidays.
I've never noticed the band.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
I was going to say the same thing. I've been there,
never realized I didn't want to say anything at risk
of being culturally insensitive. Just that, but you just blame
it straight.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Through it absolutely licostores, restaurants and another accredited establishments and
that can now sell beer, wine and spirits from two
till five pm as part of a six month trial.
Maybe that's because Michael, you and I we don't drink
in the afternoon. Maybe were respectable that couldn't be in
The band, which came into forces in nineteen seventy two,
is primarily introduced to stop government employees from drinking during
(16:57):
work hours. It's easy a way to do that, but
it's long long vexed visitors the predominantly Buddhist country, which
is also known very much for its party scene. The
move comes to stay ahead of Christmas in the New
Year holiday period, both peak seasons for tourist arrivals.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Okay up next to Fear and Greed Q and A.
As we mentioned before Andrew Dale from ecp Asset Management,
it is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot Com DoD au,
which is also we sign up for the free daily newsletter.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
It's Friday, the fifth of December twenty twenty five. Make
sure you're following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was
fear and greed. Have a great day.
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news. You can use
today's cigarettes and vapes cause the federal government budget, health
and crime headaches, household spending surges, and the federal government
concedes it won't hit its target for one point two
million homes by the end of the decade. Plus, Spotify
releases its most played artists and songs, and Ossie tourists
(00:28):
favorite Thailand relaxes rules around alcohol. It is Friday, the
fifth of December twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson. And
that's quite a mixed bag, Sean Aylmer.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
That's quite mixed bag. Sewan Aylmer. That's it a very
mixed show, a mixed bag of a show. Michael.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
It really is something for everyone today. The main story
this morning, Sean, the federal government has run into an
economic dilemma when it comes to tobacco sales. They've been
taxed so much, so heavily, that the illegal market has surged,
and that's hurting legitimate retailers. At the same time, cigarettes
are so available and so cheap on the black market.
(01:08):
The fear is that smoking rates, which the government's been
working hard to get lower over a long period of
time will actually rise.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Legal cigarette and tobacco sales fell twenty nine percent in
the year through to the end of September, according to
the Bureau Statistics. Now, a bunch of retailers, including IgA, Slash,
Met Cash, Woolli's Coal's mpole Viva Energy, which runs Shell,
they've talked about falling revenue from tobacco sales. Illegal tobacco
(01:36):
sales are surging, with convenience stores selling a pack of
twenty five cigarettes for as little as sixteen dollars compared
to a retail price of fifty dollars. Now, of that
fifty dollars, thirty four dollars a goes in taxes. A
report by the Center for Independent Studies says the federal
government's tobacco tax has reached the point of diminishing returns.
(01:56):
Rising excise rates, rather than diminishing demand, actually has incentivized
illicit supply. Now, the federal government's tobacco excis revenue has
more than half since twenty nineteen twenty. It's forecast to
continue to climb. You think that's a good thing. You
would hope that was a good thing, But the problem
is it's now got this black market absolutely humming.
Speaker 1 (02:19):
And even more concerning, i'd say, is the instances of
smoking among young Australians as rising.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
Yes so, Roy Morgan. Data released earlier in the year
showed seventeen point four percent of Australians aged eighteen and
over smoked or vaped, similar to levels a deco ago. However,
the number of younger Australians aged eighteen to twenty four
smoking or vaping had risen to twenty seven point eight percent,
according to the Finn Review. There's also the problem of
crime that comes alongside legal sales. There have been fire
(02:49):
bombings in Victoria, where rival gangs have fought for control
over the trade. In New South Wales and South Australia,
governments have introduced tough new penalties for selling illegal tobacco,
but the problem remains now. Australian Federal Police Commissioner Chrissy
Barrett was in Senate estimates this week. She said authorities
had seized thirty three million dollars in proceeds from crime
(03:10):
linked tobacco since June. Five point eight million cigarettes were
seized in July. Eighty four thousand faipes was seized in July.
Spending on cigarettes and tobacco in Australia. This is the
legal side of it. Peaked in nineteen eighty one, they
spent about ninety eight billion dollars in today's dollars, found
about fifteen billion in the legal tobacco market. Now we
(03:33):
have a target of less than five percent of the
population smoking by twenty thirty about eight five percent now, however,
we're just not getting there. And it is the number
one cause of deaths in middle aged Australians. It's responsible
for sixty six Australians dying a day, twenty four thousand
people annually, the leading cause of preventable death in Australia.
(03:57):
This is a tax policy that has well and truly
outlived its usefulness.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
And a wonder kind of is the solution if not
to change the taxation side of it, is it a
greater crackdown because on borders, for instance, because a very
large percentage of it is being imported illegally, only a
small percentage is actually been grown domestically and manufactured here.
A lot of it is coming in somehow from overseas. Yes,
(04:26):
it's a very difficult thing to stop that.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
Yes, so a lot of it's from China, in the
Middle East, the United Arab Emirates seems to be the
source of much of it. It's a supply and demand problem.
You really have to reduce demand. Supply is really hard
to stop, but reducing demand. And remember many years ago
there were advertisements which did a great job in lowering smoking,
(04:52):
just told you how dreadful smoking was for you. And
we sort of see it now for road accidents. We
don't see it for smoking so much much. But what
those ads did was actually reduced demand. And this is
really a demand side problem.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
And the other side of that is the fact that
all those warnings they are not on the illegal cigarettes,
and particularly with the individual warnings printed on individual cigarettes now,
so it is very much in your face and it
is not present on the illicit tobacco. So anyway, we're
not going to solve it here, Sean, but it is
a fascinating and worrying story. The ASX how did we
(05:29):
go yesterday?
Speaker 2 (05:30):
As a PASX two hundred closed up a bit zero
point three percent. The material sector did best, Property companies
were worst, b HP and really Tinto were strong performers.
More on that, surely, says l joined. AUP jumped a
couple of percent, while all the major banks were higher
worst for the major caps, with gold digger Northern Star
down nearly four percent and Goodman Group which was off
about two and a half percent.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
Describing Northern Star as a gold digger always just sounds
a little bit, a little bit like you're having a
crack at it. You mentioned that we're going to get
into copper a little bit later, let's do it now.
The price of copper hit a new high, sending the
share prices of BHP where Tinto and a bunch of
other copper miners higher.
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Copper is a bellweather commodity. Normally, a high copper price
means global economic confidence is pretty strong at the moment. However,
there are concerns about a tightening global supply. Now. One
of the big copper copper producers is Glencore. It's cut
its near term output target. Everyone wants copper at the
moment because we use it in electronics and electric vehicles,
(06:33):
that type of thing. So the fact that one of
the big producers cutting its term output target has helped
push up the price to almost eleven five hundred US
dollars a ton, that's about thirty percent higher than where
they started this year. That has really been pushing South
thirty to Sandfaire Resources some of those stocks on the
local market. BHP has been a big beneficiary in the
(06:54):
last week BEUCHP or last five trading days. Bachp's up
ten percent, read Tintas up nine percent, really driving those
big miners at the moment.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Yeah. Indeed, up next Sean. Obviously we've still got plenty
more show to get through. Only part way through the
mixed bag. But up after the show is Fear and
Greed Q and A. Andrew Dale from ECP Management is
your guest today.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Yes, So we're talking about the big four banks and
basically I ask Andrew which is the best one to
invest in? And he goes through the big four banks.
Plus more is what I'd say, plus more.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Plus more, Yeah, ECP Asset Management. That's coming up after
the show. Stick around for that one. We'll be back
in a moment with the rest of the day's business
news sewn. Australian household spending jumped one point three percent
in October, twice as much as expected by economists, suggesting
(07:55):
consumers are in fact out there spending. It looks like
at the house this whole spending indicator from the Bureau
Statistics replaces the retail sales figure.
Speaker 2 (08:05):
It's new, a little bit volatile, but this is a
big jump even with that volatility, and you'll growth search
to five point six percent. The historical average is about
four and a half percent. Sales and promotional periods drove
the rise. The biggest increase was in consumer good spending
stuff like clothing, footwear, furniture. What I reckon this says
is that people are just getting smarter about how they shop. So,
(08:27):
for example, many of this year's Black Friday sales began
in October and the month cord here. People are waiting
for sales. They know there's going to be periods where
you can get stuff cheaper. That's certainly our households like that,
and they're waiting for it.
Speaker 1 (08:40):
Now.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
That stuffs up the seasonal adjustment and might take a
little while for this new series to work out. What
it does mean is that the economy is picking up,
and it's unlikely the Reserve Bank will be enthused about
cutting rates on the back of these numbers.
Speaker 1 (08:55):
At least yeah and the Reserve Bank Board meets next week,
most economists expect no change to the official cash rate,
and according to bond markets, the following meeting, which is
in February, could result in a rate increase.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
It isn't the central case scenario, but bond markets have
priced in a twelve percent possibility of a rate rise
in February one hundred percent chance of a rate increase
sometime next year. Okay.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
Defense Minister Richard Miles says he has received the Pentagon's
review into Orcus and the US is completely supportive of
the project.
Speaker 2 (09:30):
He sounds like Donald Trump. To the UJ last evening,
Miles who of course is acting PM at the moment, said,
we're working through the Orchest review and we very much
think the United States for providing it to us. What's
really important here is the United States is completely supportive
of UCAS, as the President of the United States made clear,
(09:50):
and all of us moving ahead in his words, or
so all of us are moving ahead, in his words,
full steam. He does sound like Donald Trump. News that
the Pentagon had launched a review in July prompted speculation
that the White House coulled jettison Orcus. Those views dissipated
after Prime Mini strength in the Albanize his visit to Washington,
d C. In October at that time, Trump gave pretty
(10:14):
full sighted support to ucas.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
You know, it wouldn't surprise me if more politicians end
up sounding like Donald Trump because he is such an
influential commentator, communicator, that's an effective communicator. Oh yeah, yeah.
And what he does, he speaks, he cuts through. It
wouldn't surprise me if that does actually start popping up
in politicians on both sides. The federal government has conceded, surprise, surprise,
(10:39):
it is unlikely to reach its ambition of building one
point two million homes before the end of the decade,
and only two states are likely to reach their targets
for new houses.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Yes, I mean, I rate that, but it's really the
bureaucracy of the federal government and some pretty important people.
In fact, the two most important economic bureaucrats are saying it.
Head of Treasury Jenny Wilkinson said building one point two
million homes by the end of twenty twenty nine would
be challenging now. On Wednesday, Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock
said the country will likely miss its housing targets at
(11:10):
Senate estimates. Wilkinson was asked whether the governments push that
sorry the government's five percent deposit scheme would drive up
prices only a little bit, she obfiscated, said a good word. Yeah,
She basically said, housing difficult to model. She thought there
would be a small positive impact over the medium term,
(11:30):
but you know, it's hard to know. Blah blah blah.
Sounded like an economist and a bureaucrat all in one, which,
of course Jenny Wilkinson is in a very impressive one.
Speaker 1 (11:38):
One point two million homes was always very optimistic goal, though, wasn't.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
It well, to be honest, if three levels of government
got into line and so local government didn't have all
this red tape to get through, and that's happened in
some states. You're looking at me, going come on with
me on this.
Speaker 1 (11:55):
No, no, already you're talking about the impossible. You're talking
about three levels of government into line. They're going to happen.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Fair point.
Speaker 1 (12:03):
Still, in politics, the Opposition of criticizing the government over
a meeting between Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke and an
advocacy group pushing to repatriate Australian isis brides.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
Acting PM Richard Marles has maintained the government did not
engage in the repatriation of vices Brides beyond what was
legally required. He was commenting after reports of Burke held
secret talks with advacy group Save the Children ahead of
vices Brides being repatriated to Australia minutes of the talk
show that Burke declined to provide formal assistance to Australians
(12:34):
stranded in Northern Syria. Sounds a little bit like a
storman a teacup that one.
Speaker 1 (12:38):
Yeah, it's the end of the year, Shana rapidly approaching,
which means we get all these reports showing what people
buy and eat and say, and what they're listening to
all of these things. Spotify was up yesterday. It released
its top streaming tracks and unsurprisingly, I suppose overseas musicians.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Led the way number one. Michael have a guess that's it.
It's got to be Taylor Swift, right, It's got to
be Taylor Swift, then Drake, then Morgan Wollen. Never heard
of Morgan Wollan the Weekend and Billie Eilish The Weekend.
I definitely have heard because I bought my daughter tickets
for the weekend and it was canceled.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
So positive experience for you all.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
I love that. I didn't make it to the country.
Speaker 1 (13:27):
So you weren't even sure whether Morgan Wollan is a
man or a woman.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
No, I'm starting to talk about without pronouns here because
I don't know who morgan.
Speaker 1 (13:36):
As a gentleman a country singer, right, Okay, I might
have gone too far. I don't know that at all.
I just googled Morgan Wollan very quickly, trying to show
you up on my pop culture knowledge.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
Well, the next thing, the most streamed track between January
one and the mid November cutoff was Ordinary. That's the
name of the song by Alex Warren. Thought Alex Warren Ordinary,
So I kicked it out. Never heard song, never heard
of the person.
Speaker 1 (14:03):
Really, Okay, okay, stop. You and I work in the
Nova studios. Every day we sit there. That song is
on all the time the time, all the time you
are in your own world.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Half time focused on Fear and Greed. I actually had
a couple of texts yesterday. I had my nephew text me,
and he runs it. He runs a little business and
he's number one podcast listing was Fear and Greed, which
I thought was pretty cool.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Yeah, we had a couple of listeners yesterday tag us
in post on Instagram. So if you are one of
these people who has Fear and Greed appearing very highly
on your Spotify raps, then please post it online and
tag us. We would love to see that.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
That's great, just quickly. Top Australian artist The Wiggles okay,
followed by kid Leroy, Top Aussie song rip, tied by
Van Story. Let's like twenty years old and the Wiggles
are like fifty years old. Anyway, personally, I got my list.
I don't know, one hundred and ninety one genres of music.
Kind of happy about that.
Speaker 1 (15:01):
That's very mixed, hm.
Speaker 2 (15:03):
Anyway, I think this is a sort of weekend edition topic. Yeah. Cool.
Oh can you imagine Adam. He'd be all over it.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
He will have such an eclectic mix. Anyway, let's let's
bring it up on the weekend.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Great call.
Speaker 1 (15:16):
Turning to international news, now Sean, the path ahead for
Ukraine peace talks is unclear, US President Donald Trump said
yesterday after what he called reasonably good talks between Russian
President Vladimir Putin and US envoys.
Speaker 2 (15:32):
The Kremlin said that Putin accepted some US proposals aimed
at ending the war in Ukraine and was prepared to
keep working to find a compromise. US special envoys Steve
Witkoff and Trump advisor and son in LAWA. Jared Kushner
spent hours at the Tremlin. They at the Tremblin at
the Kremlin. They I'd be tremblin if Kremlin, I got
to tell you. They departed with no specific breakthrough on
(15:53):
ending the war. Afterwards, Trump said, I, quote, what comes
out of that meeting, I can't tell you because it
does take to who to tango. I'm not quite sure
what he meant there. Then he added, we have some
pretty well worked out stuff with Ukraine, is what he's
talking about there. So maybe the Russian Russians aren't tangoing,
so to speak.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
All right, One last one Thailand. Sean has temporarily lifted
a decades old ban on the sale of alcoholic drinks
in the afternoons as it seeks to boost tourism.
Speaker 2 (16:23):
So this is a surprise. I've been to Thailand for holidays.
I've never noticed the band.
Speaker 1 (16:29):
I was going to say the same thing. I've been there,
never realized I didn't want to say anything at risk
of being culturally insensitive. Just that, but you just blame
it straight.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Through it absolutely licostores, restaurants and another accredited establishments and
that can now sell beer, wine and spirits from two
till five pm as part of a six month trial.
Maybe that's because Michael, you and I we don't drink
in the afternoon. Maybe were respectable that couldn't be in
The band, which came into forces in nineteen seventy two,
is primarily introduced to stop government employees from drinking during
(16:57):
work hours. It's easy a way to do that, but
it's long long vexed visitors the predominantly Buddhist country, which
is also known very much for its party scene. The
move comes to stay ahead of Christmas in the New
Year holiday period, both peak seasons for tourist arrivals.
Speaker 1 (17:13):
Okay up next to Fear and Greed Q and A.
As we mentioned before Andrew Dale from ecp Asset Management,
it is coming up in the Fear and Greed playlist
on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot Com DoD au,
which is also we sign up for the free daily newsletter.
Speaker 2 (17:27):
Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael.
Speaker 1 (17:29):
It's Friday, the fifth of December twenty twenty five. Make
sure you're following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,
ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was
fear and greed. Have a great day.
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