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September 7, 2025 18 mins

Monday 8 September 2025

Analysts warns a red hot Wall Street faces the risk of a sharp pullback. 

And more, including:

  • Spring selling season kicks off with buyers flocking to auctions. 
  • More leadership tensions at Atlassian. 
  • Australia braces for the arrival of bird flu.
  • Apple set to launch its new iPhone.

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:06):
Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use. Today.
Markets are on edge as a red hot Wall Street
faces the risk of a sharp pullback. Spring selling season
kicks off with buyers flocking to auctions and more leadership
tensions at Atlasian Plus, Australia braces for the somewhat inevitable
arrival of the next strain of bird flu, and Apple

(00:27):
set to launch its new iPhone. It is Monday, the
eighth of September twenty twenty five. I'm Michael Thompson and
good morning Natalie McDonald. Good morning, Michael, Natalie. The main
story this morning. Investors are on edge as US stock
markets face the risk of a sharp pullback. Despite the
S and P five hundred climbing eleven percent so far

(00:48):
this year and setting records last week. Analysts at Morgan Stanley,
Deutsche Bank, Evercore and top hedge funds are warning a
five to fifteen percent correction could be coming.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
The red flags it's here, we'll rising tariffs are slowing
economy and stock prices trading well above historical norms. Inflation
may look tame for now, but manufacturers are delaying passing
higher costs to consumers. Costs that are already starting to
hit sectors like food and electronics. If consumer spending slows,

(01:19):
business profits could take a hit. The S and P
five hundreds price to earnings ratio is now twenty seven.
That's way above its long term average of sixteen, fueling
fears that many stocks are overvalued. And of course, we
pay a lot of attention to what happens on Wall
Street because the US is the world's biggest economy. In
Wall Street delivers a lead into our local market each day.

Speaker 1 (01:41):
We're sort of a sign of some of these concerns
on Friday, as Wall Street wobbled off the back of
US job data showing just twenty two thousand new jobs
were added to the economy.

Speaker 2 (01:51):
Job opening spell again in July, with quits and hiring
remaining low. That weakness was confirmed by yet another week
payroll report for August, with new payrolls coming in at
less than a third of what was expected and a
further downwards revision to prior months, with unemployment rising to
four point three percent. The S and P five hundred,
Dow Jones, and Nasdaq were unable to sustain gains, falling

(02:15):
as Wall Street wade whether the job market head is
just enough to prompt federal reserve rate cuts or if
it's slowing too much, signaling a potential economic downturn. Treasury
yields also tumbling, and while investors typically love rate cuts,
the market move suggest that they don't necessarily believe the
September cut could be a cure all for the US

(02:37):
economy and these red flags that it's currently facing.

Speaker 1 (02:40):
All right, so what does that mean is actually going
to happen? Then that the next FED meeting is just
around the corner what a market's expecting will take place.

Speaker 2 (02:49):
Traders are now betting on a one hundred percent probability
that the FED will cut its main interest rate at
its next meeting that's taking place on the seventeenth of September. So,
as you say, just around the corner, but one hundred percent.
That's according to CME Group AMP chief economist Shane Oliver,
saying that the disruption caused by Trump's tariffs is now
clearly starting to show up in a weaker jobs data,

(03:11):
although Trump will, of course blame the Fed and everybody else,
which is exactly what happened. Trump taking the opportunity for
yet another job via his truth social platform writing, Jerome
too late. Pal should have lowered rates long ago. As usual,
He's too late. His comment comes a day after Senate

(03:31):
hearing to confirm Trump picked Stephn Mirren as the governor,
as the White House continues to try to recast the
FED almost in pursuit of rate cuts.

Speaker 1 (03:40):
No, we mentioned that we obviously watch what happens in
the US as a lead in for local markets. What
do we expect it's going to take place on the
ASEX today?

Speaker 2 (03:48):
Futures are showing that the S and P ASX two
hundred index will dip slightly at the open before taking
cues from what has been Wall Street's recent strength and
even some strength on Friday to resume its time.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
Okay, let's turn away from the US and away from markets.
Let's talk real estate. I love talking property. Auction clearance
rates continue to track well as buyers race to jump
in before changes to the First Home Buyers Scheme come
into effect on the first of October. Of course, this
was the first official weekend of the spring selling season
and clearly people went out in force to the auctions

(04:25):
around the country.

Speaker 2 (04:26):
Across Australia's capital cities, the preliminary auction clearance rate hits
seventy five percent. Now, that is a touch softer than
last week, but it does mark the fourth straight week
at this level or higher. Sydney is continuing to drive
growth at seventy eight percent, Melbourne trending slightly weaker at
seventy three point two, with Brisbane reaching seventy six and
a half. For sellers, auctioneers are saying that some vendors

(04:48):
are actually opting to delay their auction until October, with
expectations of more potential buyers coming to market once the
Albanese government's five percent deposit scheme four first home buyers
comes into effect.

Speaker 1 (05:01):
Yeah, you can understand that they would be keeping their market,
or keeping their powder dry until suddenly you have an
influx of new buyers.

Speaker 2 (05:09):
Oh why wouldn't you. It's just smart selling. Ye.

Speaker 1 (05:12):
Indeed, interestingly, it's not just the metro areas in focus,
the New South Wales border town of Albury, which interestingly
is where I was born. Staggering, I say, interestingly, I
don't actually know where that is interesting to anybody except
for me. I watched your face as I said it,
and there was absolutely no reaction. It's sorry, staggering sixteen

(05:36):
fold jump in net migration from capital cities in the
past year. This is according to the latest Regional Mover Index.

Speaker 2 (05:44):
I'll have you know, Michael, I actually Google mapped Aubrey
because i wasn't sure where it was and I'm still
frankly not entirely sure where the nearest David Jones would be.
But that side across the board we are seeing more
Australians being big city living. For the regions, net migration
from capitals to country areas rows twenty six percent. There

(06:06):
are hotspots emerging like Townsville, Bendigo and the Sunshine Coast
drawing record crowds thanks to affordability, jobs and lifestyle. That's
according to data released in a partnership between Regional Australia
Institute and the Commonwealth Bank. Queensland and New South Wales
are top destinations, while Tasmania has actually managed to term
recent net losses into gains and the East pilbor in

(06:29):
Wa topped the growth list with a three hundred and
eleven percent spike. Regional leaders say that the pool factors
are clear housing, infrastructure, jobs and lifestyle, but they have
warned the housing supply, which we hear over and over again.
Needs to be able to keep pace with that demand.

Speaker 1 (06:47):
Indeed, okay, let's take a very quick break. We'll be
back in a moment with the rest of the day's
business news. Natalie Atlasian's leadership tensions have flared again with
reports that billionaire co founder Mike cannon Brooks renegged on
a succession plan that would have elevated President ANW. Barradoage

(07:11):
to CEO.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
Baraduaje, who's been with Alasian for eleven years, announced her
resignation last month. Sausas taught The Australian she was being
prepared by both canon Brooks and co founder Scott Farquha
with board support to eventually take the reins, but the
newspaper claims that canon Brooks instead installed himself as sole
CEO after Farquhah's shock exit in twenty twenty four, scustling

(07:36):
the plan. Alasian denies any such succession arrangement. The developments
highlight growing fractures inside the sixty five billion dollar software company.
Already unsettled by Farquha's departure and multiple senior exits.

Speaker 1 (07:50):
Now Australia is the last continent still free of the
deadly H five N one bird flu, but experts are
warning that that luck may soon run out. With spring
migration underway. The nation has been bracing for years for
the virus to arrive, and industry leaders say it's a
matter of when, not if.

Speaker 2 (08:08):
Globally, H five N one has wiped out tens of
millions of poultry birds, it's hammered dairy herds in the
US and sent egg and meat prices soaring in South America.
It's killed wildlife on a massive scale, from penguins to
the sea lions. Australia has already seen the damage from
les lethal strains, with last year's H seven outbreaks forcing

(08:29):
mass culls and cutting eggs supply by ten percent. Canberra
has set aside ninety five million dollars for biosecurity and
response measures, but poultry farmers say their biggest threat remains
wild birds. If H five N one lands here, the
economic fallout could dwarf anything the industry has faced before.

Speaker 1 (08:48):
Now. In an example really of how this could play
out for business, Coles has backflipped on its promise to
ditch caged eggs this year, delaying the phase out not
till next year or the year after, but all the
way to twenty thirty.

Speaker 2 (09:03):
The supermarket giant says that those recent bird flu outbreaks
have hammered supply, pushing up prices and leaving shelves bare
and with families under pressure from the cost of living crunch.
Coles argues that removing the cheapest eggs right now it's
just not realistic. Animal welfare groups understandably aren't happy. They've
long campaigned against battery cages, which can house tens of

(09:25):
thousands of hens in a single shed, but caged egg
producers say affordability matters more, calling it a market decision,
not an animal welfare one. Coals insists eighty five percent
of its eggs are already cage free and says it's
still committed to phasing cages out long term. Governments have
stepped into though both federal and state have pushed a

(09:48):
ban caged egg farming entirely by twenty thirty six.

Speaker 1 (09:52):
Now, that was all about Coals flipping the Woolworths. Now
the supermarket giant is continuing it to push into PetCare,
buying a fifty p stake in the Queensland pet food business.

Speaker 2 (10:02):
While it's not the biggest acquisition. Ever, it is interesting
because of where Wilwors is at right now and where
it's trying to go. The fifty percent share in Big
Dog pet Foods was acquired through wilworst Petspiration Division, which
will Worst bought for almost six hundred million dollars three
years ago. That division includes pet Stock through which the

(10:23):
investment in Big Dog was made. Love story short. Wilworth
now owns half a business making almost seven million kilograms
of pet food a year, coming off the back of
a lackluster set of annual results. It shows just how
keen Wilworth is to win a bigger slice of what
is a ten billion dollar pet care sector.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
Okay, now we've talked about Cols, We've talked about Woollies.
Let's talk about them together. Australia's biggest payroll scandal just
keeps on growing. Woolies and Coals are back in the
headlines after a federal court ruling found that they have
underpaid tens of thousands of staff over more than a decade.

Speaker 2 (10:58):
The supermarkets failed to keep at curate records of overtime,
penalty rates and rostering, meaning that employees didn't receive all
the entitlements they were owed. Woolworth has already repaid over
four hundred and eighty six million dollars and set aside
five hundred and forty seven million dollars. More Coles has
repaid thirty million so far, with fifty million earmarked for

(11:20):
further remediation. The Federal Court Justice called it a calamity
and ruled employers can't hide behind sloppy record keeping. Every
hour work must be logged or companies face not just
back paid, but potentially hefty penalties under the Fair Work Act.
The scandal effects over thirty thousand current and former staff
and is now the largest corporate underpayment case in Australian history.

(11:44):
Lawyers warned that the total payouts could actually climb even
higher as the supermarkets continue to review records and calculate
what's owed.

Speaker 1 (11:52):
One last one before we get to international news. It's
been two years now since Alan Joyce left Quantus bat
How about this? On Friday, the airline to annual report
revealed that the former CEO will collect one last payout
three point eight million dollars worth of shares. Pretty incredible.

Speaker 2 (12:11):
Joyce was docked millions after controversies over ghost flights and
the illegal sacking of eighteen hundred workers, but even after
the so called penalties, he walked away with fourteen point
four million dollars last year, plus that final bonus now
which Joyce is actually blocked from cashing out for one year.
Investors were furious, with eighty three percent voting against his

(12:33):
pay deal, one of the biggest backlashes in corporate history. Meanwhile,
new boss Vanessa Hudson is on a slightly slimmer six
point three million dollar package that's less than Joyce's record
twenty three point nine million hare in twenty eight In
twenty eighteen, but she's winning back trust. Quantus chares have doubled,
new aircraft are on order, and earnings are looking pretty strong.

Speaker 1 (12:57):
At The other stet that I thought was fascinating out
of this was just how much Alan Joyce has earned
throughout his career at Quantus. It was there for seventeen
years and I think the total came in at one
hundred and seventeen million dollars across the course of that.
It's a long time to be at one airline, and
it did have a lot of successes during that period,

(13:19):
but towards the end things weren't so good. But obviously
now the share price is booming and that has affected
the value of that final payout that he is receiving.
Let's turn into international news now. Japan's Prime Minister, shagherro
Orshiba has quit less than a year into the job,
following pressure from his party to take responsibility for a
major defeat in July's parliamentary elections.

Speaker 2 (13:42):
The resignation comes just a day before the Liberal Democratic
Party was set to vote on an early leadership election,
essentially a no confidence motion. The move follows a humiliating
defeat in July's elections, where his Liberal Democratic Party lost
control of both houses of parliament and voters had turned
against Ishiba over soaring living costs, and party insiders had

(14:05):
been pushing him to go for weeks. Attention now turns,
of course, to who will replace him. The front runners here, well,
we've got former leadership rival Senai Taikichi, who favors big
spending and luci monetary policy, and rising stash jiro Koazumi,
who is Issuba's agriculture minister.

Speaker 1 (14:24):
Apple Natalie is getting ready to seek and hear the
excitement in my voice about this story, right, it's preparing
to unveil the iPhone seventeen lineup this week in California.
The big talking point is thinness.

Speaker 2 (14:38):
Which isn't something you can say very often in the
year twenty twenty five.

Speaker 1 (14:44):
It's a bold lead in, isn't it?

Speaker 2 (14:45):
It is? But a less say that the iPhone Air
will be Apple's slimmest effort, just five and a half
millimeters sick. That is two millimeters thinner than today's Pro models.
But the trade off here is a much smaller battery,
meaning more time at the charger. That's that's a massive
no for me personally. But the Air is tip to
replace the Plus model and land at around fourteen hundred dollars.

(15:07):
Some analysts think that Apple may even push pricing closer
to twelve hundred to catch subsidies in China, a key market.
It's all part of a battle with Sam sunk to
a via flat smartphone sales. Beyond iPhones, Apples expected to
roll out new Apple Watches and AirPods, but no major
AI upgrades to Siri that is still on ice.

Speaker 1 (15:29):
How many iPhones do you reckon these next people could buy?
How about this story? Big lottery news out of the
US two lucky players, one in Missouri one in Texas
have hit the powerball jackpot over there. When we talk
about powerball in Australia, it's always like eighty million dollars
or one hundred million dollars. No, no, no, no. In the US,

(15:50):
this was one point eight billion US. It is a
heck of a jackpot, the second largest in American history.
That's two point seventy four billion dollars.

Speaker 2 (15:59):
In the odds of winning this are mind boggling. It's
one in two hundred and ninety two point two million.
It's huge. It's a huge number. But I didn't know
this until I was actually researching this. A little bit
more is that winners have two options to claim their

(16:20):
half of the jack box. They can do an annuitized
prize of eight hundred and ninety three and a half
million dollars or a lump sum payment a four hundred
and ten point three million. The annuitized prize would come
in thirty payments over a twenty nine year span. And
I actually got really really deep down a black hole
of the Internet in terms of what people typically tend

(16:43):
to do, which is the lump sum payment, but the
fact that actually doing the annual over a twenty nine
year spank can actually be financially more savvy, can allow
you to like bounce back from some of the errors
that you might make early on being a multi millionaire,
and also dealing with the fame that comes without I got,
I was so so deep.

Speaker 1 (17:05):
You gom right into our financial advice for lottery winners.
It's quite a niche category, We're off, but it is.

Speaker 2 (17:11):
But this jackpot. So the reason why the jackpot is
so large is because it's gone unclaimed for forty one
drawings over three months. So that's driving the prize higher
and higher each time. These winners have beaten astronomical odds
and ended the longest dry spell empowerable history.

Speaker 1 (17:30):
That is a heck of a story, great one to
finish on. Up next is Fear and Greed Q and A.
Of course, every Monday, we're joined by Stephen Kocoulis, our
resident economist for a chat about everything coming up this
week in the economy, but a closer look at everything
that took place last week and what we learned about
what is perhaps caused to be more optimistic now about

(17:52):
the economy. But we also drill down into immigration, which
was a big topic last week, and why it matters
so much to the economy is coming up next to
the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform or
at Fearandgreed dot com dot au. Thank you very much, Natalie,
and with Sean Almer back tomorrow. Thank you very much
for your company over the last month or so.

Speaker 2 (18:12):
Thank you so much, Michael, it's been a pleasure.

Speaker 1 (18:14):
It is Monday, the eighth of September twenty twenty five.
Make sure you're following the podcast and please join us
online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. Michael Thompson
and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.
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